Schoen and Daboll are 18-32 after 3 seasons (.363). They’ve gone from 9 wins, to 6 wins, to 3 wins. Schoen gave lousy QB Daniel Jones a $100M contract. Two teams from their own division just played for the NFC Championship - due in part because he let Saquon walk to a division rival who then had an MVP-caliber season. And the division doormat Commanders now have the rookie of the year under center. Schoen and Daboll were largely expected to get the boot last month, but miraculously survived, and now they’re desperate to save their jobs. Somehow, I think they’re even more desperate than we are to get a QB now, and I think (hope? pray?) Borg is about to take their lunch money.

It's making a trade back hard to imagine too. Because if I feel this way. Aren't other teams? It still could be possible. But Abdul Carter as good as he is. Doesn't seem like a number 1 pick. Travis hunter isn't the best reciever or corner in this draft. Both the QBs are unimpressive.

Getting the first overall pick should be way more fun/promising than this. I want to be more excited about some of these guys.

So I was wondering if you all could provide me with some reasons to be excited about these guys or why you think they could bring us to the next level.

Welcome to my dissertation: there is a Tl;DR at the end. I am not advocating we take QB, just having some fun with the draft. I wanted to figure out if we should really think this crop is "meh" for QB prospects based on what the media analysts are telling us. Are talking head as scouts any good at evaluating talent? I tried to find that out by looking at the past 10 years of drafts.

My source for the first data set was: https://www.nfl.com/draft/tracker/prospects/qb/all-colleges/all-statuses/2024?page=1

I needed something to compare all QB's relative to each other, and this not only does that, but it goes back 10 years. I then placed the scores assigned for all QB's that have played meaningful snaps and/or have been starters in the NFL since 2014. Of note is that Shedeur is ranked a 6.30 (with Ward slightly higher at 6.39) so I made sure to include all QB's that had a ranking of 6.3 or higher.

After putting in their draft score, I then assigned players into one of 4 categories. I don't want to debate who specifically belongs in each tier, merely provide context for the analysis:

• Elite (top 5 or top 5 potential)

Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Jayden Daniels.

• Very Good (a list of very good QB's I think are probably good enough to win a Super Bowl in their prime, some clearly better than others, but aren't consistently elite and need better pieces around them to reach their full potential, and/or young players that franchises are excited about)

Jalen Hurts, Brock Purdy, Tua Tagovailoa, Caleb Williams, Baker Mayfield, Drake Maye, Justin Herbert, Bo Nix, Jared Goff, Bryce Young, Deshaun Watson, CJ Stroud, Jordan Love, Dak Prescott.

• QB Purgatory: QB's that have shown flashes but never really pieced it all together, and have a dangerous tendency to make you scared to move on from them but with them never being good enough to win it all, or younger players where you see they have tools to jump up a tier but they haven't put that convincing level of play on film yet (note: I tried to be kinder to QB's less than 5ish years in the league, and there's a lot of overlap with this and the next tier but the point is we DON'T want someone from this tier or the next):

Trevor Lawrence, Sam Darnold, Jameis Winston, Kyler Murray, Marcus Mariota, JJ McCarthy, Derek Carr, Michael Penix Jr., Jimmy Garoppolo, Carson Wentz, Justin Fields, Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, Anthony Richardson, Will Levis, Mac Jones, Daniel Jones, Gardner Minshew.

• The Jaguar tier: mostly busts and the hopeless tier:

Spencer Rattler, Zach Wilson, Sam Howell, Jacoby Brissett, Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, Drew Lock, Mason Rudolph, Aidan O'Connell, Bailey Zappe, Mitchell Trubisky, Dwayne Haskins, Trey Lance, AJ McCarron, Paxton Lynch, Josh Rosen, Matt Corral, Johnny Manziel, DeShone Kizer, Nathan Peterman.

Out of this grouping, Cam Ward with a 6.39 draft score is ranked 37th, while Shedeur Sanders with a 6.30 draft score is ranked 47th out of a total of 60 QB's.

So what does that mean?

First off, the average ranking of players in the elite tier is 23.6 with an average NFL.com score of 6.58 and a median of 6.4. And the average ranking of players in the Very Good tier is 26.7 with an average NFL.com score of 6.49 and median of 6.6. And the average score of the QB purgatory tier? 6.47. So it doesn't imply a high degree of confidence in their rankings. Their scoring is so close that sometimes it can be a bit arbitrary: were Cam Ward given a 0.01 bump to reach 6.40, he would then vault into a tie for 28th rank overall.

But are the weights of these scores even worth anything? Over the past 10 years the top scored QB prospects are:

7.4 Lawrence, 7.1 Darnold, 7.07 Burrow, 7 Goff, 7 Winston, 7 Trubisky, 6.82 Young, 6.8 Watson, 6.8 Murray, 6.8 Mariota, 6.8 Bortles, 6.8 Lynch, 6.8 Bridgewater.

So.. no. Doesn't matter much. My top 10 turned into the top 13 due to a tie at 6.8, but only 1 elite tier QB was in that list. And I only have 3 on the cusp of being "good enough" in Goff, Young, and prime years only Watson (ick).

Mahomes (6.3) was ranked the same as Shedeur and below Ward. Hurts (6.14), Dak (5.9), and Purdy (5.57) all ranked near the bottom.

I believe Lance Zierlein does those grades and is respectable at it. I know a lot of people are going to scoff at this and say he's an idiot and those rankings suck because people like to dump on things, but honestly fair enough, it's just the only data set I could find that compared year to year relative to each other, and I think it generally fit the pre-draft analysis "consensus" closely enough.

And to try and add another data set I went to another "trusted" analytical friend in PFF to try and replicate this exercise, since comparing year over year you need a consisting ranking system. PFF only went back to 2018, but the PFF scores for each of the 3 tiers coming out of college were:

• Elite: Average 85.85 with a median of 90.9

• Very good: Average 88.05 with a median of 90.3

• QB Purgatory: Average 86.82 with a median of 90.6

TL;DR: I don't think anyone should be too concerned about whether the pre-draft consensus on either QB is that they are a 2nd or 3rd or 5th round talent, or that they would be significantly worse than any other QB crop, or any better. These rankings suggest that the pre-draft analysts are reasonably good at agreeing on a "pool" of NFL quality QB talent, but once into that pool for the most part, all projection bets are off. Again, in general, as there is an obvious skew to the best ranked QB's at least being able to make the QB purgatory list, but there is just not a high correlation with the pre-draft rankings and future star success. The consensus seems to be that they both belong in the conversation. For those interested, Jaxson Dart (6.19) isn't totally removed from the conversation either, although dipping into a territory where not many were successful ranked below him. 6.3 is their cutoff for "will eventually become a plus starter"

My sheets are here for anyone interested, might be some minor errors on draft position but I wasn't concerned about that this time around (along with the other review I did of top 20 QB's and where they came from)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Bs_MR2Rb-B8Hr6dncNFnEiVvEWNs-09E3G3Q4KSmZTA/edit?usp=sharing

What is it that makes Jason McCourty look different from Devin? I can’t figure it out. All I know is that when I look at them I know it’s either Jason or an imposter. I can’t figure out what’s different about them. I just know which one I looked at for all those years. I need someone to tell me what it is and how they tell them apart other than just feelings.

Now here me out so I'm from Chicago but I'm a Titans fan so I'm sure there is some bias. I want us to sign Justin fields instead of drafting a Qb at pick 1. We can either trade the pick for more capital or draft Abdul Carter. This cycle of drafting a qb realize that they stink/the team as a whole stinks then trade them away.

Any word on who is gonna replace my benevolent Sack King?

I have followed the NFL draft (and especially the Titans drafts) for the past 25 yrs. I've always felt like most mock drafts for the top 5 or so picks each year were reasonably predictable (even if they turned out wrong on draft day). This year, I have seen probably two dozen different scenarios playing, involving all kinds of trades. It's like NO ONE has any idea at all what's reasonably likely to happen. It's bewildering.

Anyone else feeling the same?

Just watched some film breakdowns on him and man he looks like he could end up being the best QB in the draft when all is said and done.

Wonder if trading back and picking him will end up being the play.

I wanted to put together a mock draft to see what fans want at different times in the off-season and make a video on it. I will be doing a mock draft prior to free agency, post free agency, and after the combine. The player that is either most commented or most upvoted will be considered the pick. I will be going around every subreddit to see who they pick. Let me know what you guys believe your biggest team needs are as well.

Draft Results

1. Tennessee Titans:

Cam Ward, QB

2. Cleveland Browns:

3. New York Giants:

4. New England Patriots:

5. Jacksonville Jaguars:

6. Las Vegas Raiders:

7. New York Jets:

8. Carolina Panthers:

9. New Orleans Saints:

10. Chicago Bears:

11. San Francisco 49ers:

12. Dallas Cowboys:

13. Miami Dolphins:

14. Indianapolis Colts:

15. Atlanta Falcons:

16. Arizona Cardinals:

17. Cincinnati Bengals:

18. Seattle Seahawks:

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

20. Denver Broncos:

21. Pittsburgh Steelers:

22. Los Angeles Chargers:

23. Green Bay Packers:

24. Minnesota Vikings:

25. Houston Texans:

26. Los Angeles Rams:

27. Baltimore Ravens:

28. Detroit Lions:

29. Washington Commanders:

30. Buffalo Bills:

31. Philadelphia Eagles:

32. Kansas City Chiefs:

Certainly sounds like Levis will be on the team one way or another next season.