IF every rookie QB started weeks 1-3, these are the rankings

1. JJ McCarthy - Vikings 4*
2. Drake Maye - Patriots 6*
3. Caleb Williams - Bears 5*
4. Michael Penix Jr - Falcons 3*
5. Jayden Daniels - Redskins 9*
6. Bo Nix - Broncos 7*
7. Jordan Travis - Jets 2*
8. Spencer Rattler - Saints 8*
9. Devin Leary - Ravens 1*
10. Joe Milton - Patriots 6*

(Taking their teams into consideration)

Once a team has decided on their first round pick, how long does the process take to actually get it show "the pick is in"? I ask because I noticed that Denver had their pick of Nix in something like 1:29. I base that on watching the clock countdown and switching to the "pick is in" screen going from 8:31 to that.

Curious to know where y’all think JJ would be ranked among the QBs eligible to enter the draft next year. Obviously a lot can change in year so nobody can really know but JJ has one of the more interesting cases where obviously the sample size is really small and he played on a great team but I think the pre draft process did a lot for him. He also only just turned 21 so maybe staying a year would’ve helped him but with coming off a national championship alongside Harbaugh leaving, it made sense why he left.

I should also mention that I think I’m personally higher on the 2025 class than most people it seems. Obviously requires a fair bit of projection but you have someone like Jalen Milroe who has the great physical tools and seemed to get better as the year went on. Similar with someone like Drew Allar who also has elite traits and now has a new OC that could help his development. Carson Beck just seems to be “good” at a lot of things. Shedeur Sanders and Quinn Ewers both need to do some work I think, but I can see teams falling in love with what they have to offer.

Let me know what you guys think!

I've recently heard that Seahawks' GM, John Schinder, had between 16-20 first round grades in this year's draft, which is a somewhat common amount for any given draft class. I've never heard a team say they've had more than maybe 20 first round grades, let alone more than 32.

A team picking at 32, for example, has to make a pick. By definition, that player is a first round pick, so they should have a first round grade. Is this terminology more that they are talking about guaranteed 1st round type player that the rest of the league views the same way? I don't get it. All the teams in the back half of the first round can't trade back into the 2nd round. Should they just call it tier 1 first round grade and tier 2 first round grade?

Talk about anything you please; draft-related or otherwise!

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The 2024 NFL Draft is in the books and it’s time to recap all the action. Thursday started off pretty chalky until the Atlanta Falcons sent shockwaves across the internet when they selected Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. eighth overall. We didn’t see a defensive player selected until pick number 15. Late in the first round leading into day two, we saw a big run on wide receivers, which the depth of the class was illustrated by 35 total names coming off the board. Offensive tackle came in close behind that with 27 selected and cornerback actually edged out the WRs by one more taken (36), as the two other quality position groups. The big surprise was that we didn’t just get six quarterbacks inside the top-12 to set a new record, but then it took 138 additional spots before we got to QB7.

In this article, I’m going to break down the biggest winners and losers from the weekend, which can be teams overall in terms of the hauls they put together, individual players, coaches or general managers. After that, we’re getting to the biggest steals and reaches, based my individual rankings, consensus boards and general circumstances. All of this of course comes with a certain level of subjectivity and it’ll be another three years before we can make any definitive statements on these new members of the NFL, but I strongly believe in team-building through the draft, understanding where you can acquire value, how to maneuver around the board and how this piece fits into the puzzle, as you consider the way you’ve positioned yourself coming in and the vision behind the operation.

Let’s get into it:

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Winners:

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Pittsburgh Steelers

We have back-to-back appearances by the Steelers and I thought this year they knocked it out of the park even more so this year. And we saw their draft reflect very well how one term has dictated their entire offseason – patience. It showed in the way they spent a sixth-rounder (who could bump up a couple of rounds based on playing time) for a QB room of Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, who cost them 4.5 million dollars this year. They signed a couple of starters at key spots in linebacker Patrick Queen and safety DeShon Elliott under expected value and while the late-round pick-swap paired with the Diontae Johnson-for-Donte Jackson trade isn’t a net plus, it feels like they had a player there who didn’t fit in with the culture anymore.

As for this draft class, of their first five picks (20, 51, 84, 98 and 119), all of the players they selected were (in some cases significantly) higher on my personal big board compared to where they got them. Washington’s Troy Fautanu became OT6 selected as someone with elite movement skills, projecting well as someone who can offer positional versatility, even if the raw strength isn’t quite up there with the guys ahead of him. Then they came back in the second round and got what arguably was the best pure center in the class, if not for breaking his leg at the end of the college season, in West Virginia’s Zach Frazier, who is a perfect fit for new OC Arthur Smith implementing his outside zone-based run scheme. Michigan’s Roman Wilson at one point was projected to be a potential surprise pick at the end of the first round with how he was routing everybody up during Senior Bowl week, coming from an environment that didn’t lend itself to major production, but he was the guy the Wolverines relied upon when they needed to move the chains (38 of his 48 receptions last season resulted in either a first down or touchdown). I had a late first-round grade purely based on the tape of N.C. State linebacker Payton Wilson, who brings premiere speed, play-making skills and effort, but saw his career marked by injuries until becoming the ACC Defensive Player of the Year in 2023. And while they already had a couple of veteran guards under contract for this year still, South Dakota State’s Mason McCormick was an absolute ass-kicker in the run game for the FCS champion Jackrabbits, then had basically a flawless week of Shrine Bowl practices, especially in one-on-one pass-pro drills, and ultimately finished with a top-ten relative athletic score (9.97) for guards.

Iowa interior D-lineman Logan Lee (178^(th) overall) and Ryan Watts (195^(th) overall) also both feel very much like Steelers players in reserve roles. So not only did they probably find a starting receiver and linebacker as rookies, I mentioned this on social media, who a little more than a calendar year ago, Pittsburgh probably had a bottom-three offensive line and now they’ve literally improved all six spots, if including their primary backup.

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Aidan O’Connell & Gardner Minshew

I’ll get to the validity of the six quarterbacks who were ultimately selected in the top-12, but coming into last Thursday night, if you replace the Giants with the surprising Falcons, there were seven teams in the market for a young signal-caller in that range plus the Raiders at pick 13. As it turned out, they were the ones to miss out on the group. Personally, I thought there was a good chance they might trade up, if the Commanders preferred North Carolina’s Drake Maye compared to LSU’s Jayden Daniels, since new head coach Antonio Pierce has the connection with the reigning Heisman Trophy winner from the days of being involved in his recruitment at Arizona State. As it turned out, Las Vegas didn’t end up moving, despite reports on them trying trade up as high as second overall, and with the record-setting six names selected until the Silver and Black were on the clock, they instead got the final one of the four premier pass-catchers in Georgia tight-end/all-purpose weapon Brock Bowers.

However, it didn’t stop there. The Raiders actively passed on possible options with all of their final seven picks (one in each round, other than two in the seventh). In fact, there was a 138-pick gap between QB6 and QB7 – which I’ll get to more later on – and I personally think all five of the remaining guys drafted (even if Tennessee’s Joe Milton III is objectively pretty raw) had starter traits, at least in relation to Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew, who along with Anthony Brown – an undrafted free agent from two years ago – and Carter Bradley (South Carolina) as their own UDFA pickup following Saturday, make up that quarterback room. Instead, along with Bowers 13^(th) overall, they brought in my personal top-ranked center Jackson Powers-Johnson from Oregon (44^(th) overall), a long and athletic tackle/guard developmental prospect in Maryland’s Delmar Glaze (77^(th) overall) and later on what might be the best pass-catching back in this draft in New Hampshire’s Dylan Laube (206^(th) overall).

So not only did Vegas miss out on the top of the class of signal-callers, but they didn’t even take a shot on anybody else outside of what I look at as a potential QB3 as a UDFA and then they spent their picks in the first three rounds on another offensive weapon and addressed the O-line, along with upgrading their third-down back with Laube, in my opinion. I thought O’Connell showed some real signs last season, even though he may be somewhat limited, and Minshew did nearly lead the Colts to a playoff berth, even if the tape showed obvious flaws. So for the Raiders to come out of this draft with no real competition to those guys has be counted as a massive W for them – although I think they were a perfect candidate to take at least a day-three swing on someone.

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The university of Michigan

Two years ago, I talked about Kirby Smart and the Georgia Bulldogs, when they set a new record for most players selected off one team in a year with 15. After them, there are two college programs with 14 each (2004 Ohio State and 2020 LSU), before the Wolverines come in at 13 total names. As you look at that list, the big difference between them and the other groups in that range, is that they’re the only one of 14 teams with 11+ guys drafted, who didn’t have multiple first-round picks. That speaks to the kind of infrastructure they’ve built, where they don’t rely on individual star players, have guys coming back for their senior years in order to compete for a championship and still set themselves up for a future in the pros.

Quarterback J.J. McCarthy went 10^(th) overall to the Vikings, which was slightly lower than betting services had it, but like two rounds higher than where many people considered him when Michigan won the National Championship in early January. So that speaks to the fact their style of play offensively, which makes the quarterback more of a complementary piece, doesn’t necessarily hurt more potential high recruits at that position, while not as much is put on their plate. They quickly turned Mike Sainristil from a wide receiver into arguably the top pure nickelback in the class and the 50^(th) overall selection (Commanders), interior D-lineman Kris Jenkins Jr. went a pick earlier (Bengals) despite limited production in more of a read-and-react style of front, Jim Harbaugh himself (Chargers) grabbed Junior Colson as LB2 off the board, A.J. Barner was a fourth-round pick as somewhat of a one-dimensional player because they turned himself into the top blocking tight-end in the class and even guard Zak Zinter was a third-rounder despite breaking his tibia and fibula.

The two guys that went a little later than I might’ve expected were running back Blake Corum (83^(rd) overall), who was recovering from a torn ACL but will be sharing the Rams backfield with who many comped him to in Kyren Williams, and Roman Wilson (84^(th) overall), who landed in the pre-eminent spot for mid-round wide receiver production in Pittsburgh. The only prospects I had draftable grades on who didn’t get selected were center Drake Nugent and edge defender Braiden McGregor. And even with those two, you see a path why they wouldn’t hear their names called, due to size and injury concerns respectively. So the Wolverines check the three key factors for high school recruits – a top-ten university in terms of education according to Time Magazine, a proven winner (40-3 record over the past three seasons combined) and now also an NFL machinery, under the leadership of former offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore taking over for Jim.

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Green Bay Packers

Looking through some draft grades out there, just for fun, I couldn’t that they were middle of the road at best, when I think you can make a strong case that the only class you should put above theirs is the already discussed Steelers. Simply from a process perspective, they came into Thursday with one pick in the first round, two in the second, two in the third, one in the fourth and fifth each, plus two in the sixth and seventh each. Ultimately, they moved back four spots in the second round (from 41 to 45) and in return – through multiple other trades – they moved up 11 spots in the fourth round and 56 spots from the sixth to the fifth round (from 219 to 163). Based on that alone, the accrued value, before we even get to the names they used that capital on.

Now, the first round is where some people may arguably they slightly reached on Arizona’s Jordan Morgan, who is argued to be moving inside to guard because his arms came in an eighth of an inch short of the general 33-benchmark, but he has some of the best mirror skills and ability to block on the move in this entire class, was a first-team all-conference performer in the loaded Pac-12 in a season coming off a torn ACL and was 31^(st) on my personal big board, compared pick 25, where they ended up selecting him, as the seventh of nine offensive taken in the first round. In the second, they addressed their two biggest defensive needs, with Texas A&M’s Edgerrin Cooper (45^(th) overall), as an uber-athletic, long linebacker to pair up with a former first-rounder in Quay Walker, and a teammate of the second-year breakout from Georgia in Javon Bullard (58^(th) overall), who has plenty of quality experience as a nickel and deep safety, as a potential upgrade over Darnell Savage, who left in free agency. In the third round, they selected what I believe is the most talented all-around running back in Marshawn Lloyd (88^(th) overall), in terms of short-area explosiveness, start-stop ability and power, if he can fix his ball-security issues, and what I consider their only questionable selection in Missouri linebacker Ty’Ron Hopper, who brings a lot of speed and violence to the table, but still needs to learn how to read blocking schemes and clean up his massive missed tackle rate.

Day three is where they really won be over however. They got a couple of my personal favorites at the safety position in Oregon’s Evan Williams (111^(th) overall) and Oregon State’s Kitan Oladapo (169^(th)), who I personally had 11^(th) and fourth(!) in my rankings at the position. They played in fairly similar systems and it might give us some insight into what new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has planned, as they’re both excellent in two-high structures, where they can read and drive on what’s in front of them, but can also drop down into the slot against bigger bodies. Duke’s Jacob Monk (163^(rd) overall) I got to late in the process, but really liked his physicality and experience at both guard and center. Georgia State tackle Travis Glover (202^(nd) overall) is a lot rawer, but has some developmental qualities. And then their two seventh-rounders are definitely worth taking shots on – I’ll go into more detail about Tulane QB Michael Pratt in the “steals” segment and Penn State corner Kalen King was still projected to be a potential first-rounder a year ago, before plummeting since then.

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Bryce Young

While I already discussed Raiders quarterbacks Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew as big winners, based on strengthened job security and opportunity to start for their team, that was never a discussion with last year’s first overall pick Bryce Young. However, even though Panthers owner David Tepper had another infamous moment hours before the draft actually started and I have questions about the class they acquired overall, in terms of helping their guy under center, I’d argue nobody has had a better offseason than Bryce. Before we even got to the actual draft, they hired former Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales as their new head coach, after helping resurrect the career of another former number one pick in Baker Mayfield. In free agency, they spent an average of 33.25 million dollars on a new guard tandem with Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis, to slow down the interior pass-rush that was seemingly omnipresent this past season, and then they trade cornerback Donte Jackson for former Steeler Diontae Johnson (combine with a late-round pick swap), who has been a low-end WR1 when healthy.

Heading into Thursday night, the Panthers weren’t even slated to pick due to trading up for Young a year ago, but they moved up one spot – which once again can be questioned in terms of their process behind it – in order to get South Carolina’s Xavier Legette with the final selection of round one. At 6’1”, 220 pounds, he can own the catch-point thanks to his physicality paired with 32-inch arms and a 40-inch vertical. Yet, he also becomes a locomotive with the ball in his hands capable of dragging defensive backs along, if he doesn’t just turn on the jets with that 4.39 speed. You don’t love the late breakout profile and he still needs some refinement as a route-runner, but understanding his background and why it took him a little longer, you at least like to bet on that of skill-set. Once again, I’m not sure if I love the idea of trading up for a running back in the second round, at least not ten spots ahead of the Cowboys as the one team where their owner was also yapping too much that they were “high, high, high” on Texas’ Jonathon Brooks (46^(th) overall), but aside from the torn ACL he suffered in November, he was the top RB on many teams’ boards. He brings that gliding running style with excellent balance that should make him a better pure rusher than any of the guys they already had on the roster, plus then you really like his receiving profile, having caught 25 passes for nearly 300 yards in 11 games last season. And then, with the first pick of day three they selected another former Longhorn in tight-end/H-back Ja’Tavion Sanders. Similarly to teammate Adonai Mitchell falling, there were some unnamed character concerns that led to him being available at least a full round later where he was projected to go, because he was my 42^(nd) overall prospect purely based on tape and will once again be discussed more extensively in the “steals” segment, as someone who can threaten the seams and be a run-after-catch specialist.

So now all of a sudden, Adam Thielen in year 34 season won’t be the number one option but potentially all the way down at fourth. Canales will bring more creativity compared to the elementary passing concepts they relied upon during Bryce’s rookie campaign, they now have guys that can stretch the field horizontally as well as vertically, and their QB can actually stand in the pocket and see over the line instead of having the integrity of the pocket disrupted constantly.

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Other drafts I liked:

Arizona Cardinals

Buffalo Bills

Denver Broncos

New York Giants

Philadelphia Eagles

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Losers:

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Atlanta Falcons

This of course has to start with the pick that lit the NFL world on fire, as they shocked everybody by drafting Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. eighth overall. I will go more into detail on most of these quarterbacks in the “reaches” segment, but for the context of this, I had the runner-up for the Heisman Trophy 40 spots lower on my personal big board. So I think you could make a case for him to be a late first-rounder at least based on the benefit of a potential fifth-year option, but that’s the smallest issue here. Just 45 days before the draft kicked off, they signed free agent Kirk Cousins to a four-year, 180-million-dollar contract. That’s coming off a torn Achilles he suffered mid-season and while I’ve heard some people argue that this can be looked at as quarterback insurance, if they didn’t think the veteran would be ready by week one, how can you justify handed out a deal like that? And you’re actually facing disciplinary action from openly tampering with the guy!

I had high expectations for Atlanta’s offense going into this past season, but when they struggled to consistently move the ball, I thought Penix’s aggressive downfield passing could elevate them. That doesn’t however match with a situation where neither the rookie nor the veteran will be particularly comfortable under these circumstances. From all the people Cousins has close connections with, the words “trust” and “security” are up there at the top of the list, and don’t tell me that this is just like the Jordan Love situation – Sure, it was also surprising, but a disconnect between Rodgers and Packers was already developing and they drafted his eventual replacement 26^(th) overall while making clear that this was a future investment into the 22-year-old. Cousins had barely settled in yet, there’s a real chance he may not be ready until the late parts of the offseason – when everybody in the organization has watched Penix sling it around at practice – and they used a premium pick on Penix just over a week before he turns 24. And the statement by general manager Terry Fontenot on Penix potentially “sitting him four or five year being a great thing” is just asinine, because that would entirely defeat the benefit or a rookie quarterback – which is already limited even if they take the earliest exit on Cousins two years from now, which still comes with 100 million dollars guaranteed – and that you still might have very limited tape on a top-ten pick in live action, aside from the fact of course this comes with opportunity cost of having selected their choice of the top defender in the draft or maybe having traded down. I could have listed easily listed Cousins here as well or the rest of that roster now having to deal with that distraction.

Now, while that’s the main crux here, I was also scratching my head when they traded up eight spots in the second round for Clemson interior D-lineman Ruke Orhorhoro (35^(th) overall) in exchange for moving down 107 spots from the third to the sixth round. He could turn into a really useful player with alignment versatility, thanks to how low he plays, his combination of length, short-area quickness and play demeanor, but how he counters double-teams and approaches the initial phase of pass-rush reps still clearly need work. I actually had him slightly higher than consensus boards, but that was still 23 spots later than where he was ultimately selected. The rest of the prospects they picked came at appropriate value I thought, even though I didn’t have draftable grades on the final two, but they also didn’t draft one of their two main needs on defense – corner. When asked about it Fontenot ironically responded by saying “you don't want to reach in the draft”, when the pick they traded up from in the second round ended up being Rutgers DB Max Melton, who I and consensus boards had higher than Ruke for example.

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Miles Sanders

In terms of more specific NFL veteran players, there aren’t a lot of guys who have seen a bigger fall from grace over the last calendar year than Miles Sanders. Now, this by no means is writing off his career entirely and I’m not going to act like he was set up for success under Frank Reich and Thomas Brown bouncing play-calling duties back and forth last season. However, after rushing for well over 1200 yards and 11 touchdowns behind the tremendous Eagles offensive line and being part of their run at a Super Bowl the year prior, Sanders went for just 432 yards on the ground and found the end-zone once, whilst averaging an abysmal 3.3 yards per carry. That was after the Panthers handed a four-year, 25.4-million-dollar deal and the only real competition on the roster being Chuba Hubbard. With what new head coach Dave Canales was able to get out of Rachaad White in Tampa Bay last season, there’s still a chance that Sanders can earn trust as the lead-back for this offense that added a bunch of other pieces, as I already mentioned, but that’s not the message this operation is currently sending and competition just got a lot stiffer.

It’s not just that Carolina selected Texas running back Jonathon Brooks in the second round, but they actually moved up six spots 46^(th) overall to make sure they’d get RB1 off the board, jumping the Giants who might’ve been in the market for the position – they ultimately waited until the fifth round. Personally, I had Florida State’s Trey Benson as the top player at the position, but if Brooks wasn’t coming off a torn ACL, he would’ve been inside the 50 highest-ranked players overall for me. He may not an elite top gear, but he gets up to speed very quickly, is an efficient mover in his transitions, navigates well through condensed space as well as around bodies in the open field, with the contact balance to pull through loose wraps. In terms of the pass game, he wasn’t asked to run an overly complex route-tree, but he can be deceptive in his body-language, he has natural hands and consistently made the first man miss after the catch. So while some of the limitations that Sanders showed with the Eagles showed in terms of not being able to turn 10-15 yard runs into long touchdowns, I see more from him in terms of working in foot-fakes and pulling his legs out of the grasp of would-be tacklers as individual qualities. And watching how he made use of double-teams and pullers as part of Texas’ GT power plays, I like his projection into more of a gap-scheme run game which Canales will emphasize.

Along with Brooks, I also like the big-play potential Jaden Shirden from Monmouth provides as an undrafted free agent. It’ll be a long road to make the actual final 53, but I could see him getting elevated from the practice squad on a few occasions and demand a handful of touches, to go along with the rest of the bodies they had in Carolina last year already.

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Kalen King & Leonard Taylor

There are two players in this draft who were projected to be likely first-round picks heading into the 2023 college football season and now actually both declared as true juniors. Penn State’s Kalen King was up there with Iowa’s Cooper DeJean and Alabama’s Kool-Aid McKinstry, who ultimately went back-to-back at the 40^(th) and 41^(st) overall selection, as the top corner prospects. Meanwhile, Miami’s Leonard Taylor was much more of a projection guy, but in terms of movement skills and flashes of dominance he showed on the interior defensive line, there was a lot to like, if he had continued on his developmental track. Yet, King barely squeezed in on day three as the third-to-last pick of the entire event (255^(th) overall), while Taylor didn’t get a call until Mr. Irrelevant had already been announced, and he has since signed with the Jets. Let’s talk about how they got here individually.

During summer scouting, I had landed on King as my CB2 heading into the year and really appreciated his scrappy style of play. While he obviously didn’t come in with the same kind of length or NFL bloodlines as Joey Porter Jr. (33^(rd) overall pick by the Steelers in 2023), watching Penn State tape, he was the better all-around corner. On 59 targets his way, he only allowed 27 completions on 5.8 yards pass thrown his way and one touchdown compared to three interceptions plus 18(!) PBUs, without getting penalized once. The numbers weren’t remarkably worse on fewer looks, but the ball-production dropped off dramatically, without any picks and just two PBUs. More importantly however, I thought the competitiveness toughness and aggressiveness he put on display was sub-par, highlighted by getting roasted by Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. for a second straight year, but approaching the matchup with more disinterest I felt. Then came the pre-draft process and I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen a prospect tank his stock as much as King. King lost pretty much every single rep during Senior Bowl practices, where he just showed no confidence in his technique and regularly got blown by. Then he went to the combine and ran a 4.61, which reinforced concerns about his long-speed considering his 10-yard split was at least average.

As for Taylor, I was somewhat indifferent on his projection to the NFL, because he was so all over the place technically, his play-recognition and overall consistency. Nevertheless, I did see the potential and high-level moments on his tape. I’m not going to act like he was put in position to succeed all the time, in terms of alignment, what he was asked to do and to some degree probably his player developmental. With that being said, I saw basically no progression in 2023 or things that translate to the next level, with the flashes of dominance became less frequent. Both his number of sacks and tackles for loss were cut down to a third of their ’22 totals (3.5 and one respectively), while his PFF pass-rush productivity was nearly cut in half, down from 9.4 to 5.8. You see him just shoot into the backfield and blow plays up every once in a while when he was allow to attack upfield and you see him ride offensive linemen into the quarterback a few times, but he just doesn’t seem to really know what he’s doing out there yet. Then he went to the combine and for a supposedly freaky athlete, Taylor finished in the 40^(th) percentile or worse in all the combine drills he participated in (excluding short-shuttle and bench press).

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The old Eagles corner room

I’ll leave it up to you here if you want to look at the word “old” as in the former or their actual age, but considering how long those guys have been in the league by now, both are very fair. Looking at the personnel moves by Eagles general manager Howie Roseman, the two they would definitely like to take back in retrospect were veteran cornerbacks Darius Slay and James Bradberry, who both received three-year contracts last offseason worth a combined 80 million dollars, with more than half of that number fully guaranteed. By the time this season rolls around, they’ll be 33 and 31 years old respectively and you saw them show their age this past year, as they went from both being Pro Bowlers to below-average starters, which particularly in Bradberry’s case can be considered a mild description. Yet, understanding where this franchise is, with a lot of cap hits of younger plays they’ve built the foundation around about to hit in future years, they didn’t let those financial implications affect their draft investments too much. They took the first corner off the board in Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell (22^(nd) overall), without having to move up ten spots potentially, which was about where he was projected to be taken, and then they did actually move up ten spots in round two with their division rival Commanders to take advantage of the falling Cooper DeJean from Iowa (40^(th) overall), who was considered a consensus day one guy, even if there was discussion about his ultimate position fit.

Mitchell was CB1 for me and the majority of people in the industry, finishing as the 12^(th) overall prospect on consensus boards. Yet, with the first defensive player not coming off the board until pick 15 (UCLA edge defender Laiatu Latu to the Colts), in large part due to teams wanting to get their hands on the top wide receivers and tackles, along with the six QBs inside the top-12, this pushed everybody else down the board. You can read more about Mitchell as a steal in the next segment, but he was a superstar in the MAC who absolutely rocked this pre-draft process and if he played at a major program, he would’ve most likely been a top-ten pick in the majority of drafts. Meanwhile, DeJean was a bit more of a divisive name, because there was no consensus on where his best spot in the secondary may ultimately be. He almost exclusively lined up at outside corner this past season, but operated out of the slot regularly the year and at a little over six-foot, 205 pounds with his type of football IQ and spatial awareness as a zone defender, you could also project him to play some safety at the next level. With how well he tested and moved around during the Iowa pro day however, it felt like he secured himself a spot in the first round, which he was always projected to go in anyway, even coming off a leg injury.

Both of them project really well into a match-zone scheme under new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, where they play off and trigger on what happens in front of them, since that’s what they were mainly asked to do in college as well. That’s why both of Philly’s veteran corners are put on notice, while DeJean could also push starting nickel Avonte Maddox, who they brought back for this season at a two-million-dollar price tag.

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Alec Pierce & Juju Smith-Schuster

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The rest of the analysis can be found here!

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Other drafts I have questions about:

Carolina Panthers

Dallas Cowboys

Jacksonville Jaguars

New York Jets

Tennessee Titans

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Steals:

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Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo – 22**^(nd)** overall to the Eagles

There are obviously draft picks who went several spots later than where they were projected to come off the board and present better net-plus in terms of value, but when we can all agree that Quinyon was a steal in the first round even, we have to outline him here. This was my as well as the number one corner across and tenth overall prospect, while sitting two spots lower on consensus board. If you take into account the medical history UCLA edge defender Laiatu Latu (15^(th) to the Colts), a strong case be made that Mitchell was the top defensive player on the board, yet with the rest of the league going offense only until the middle of the round and then focusing on the defensive front, he somehow makes it down to Philly. Some people actually had GM Howie Roseman trading up by around ten spots in order to get him, because they really needed to inject some youth into that corner room – as I already went over earlier – yet they stay patient and address their biggest need at great value without having to invest additional resources. He’s a perfect fit for Vic Fangio with his ability to click-and-close on routes from off-alignment and I think he has All-Pro potential.

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The rest of the analysis can be found here!

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Jer’Zhan Newton, IDL, Illinois – 36**^(th)** overall to the Commanders

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Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas – 52**^(nd)** overall to the Colts

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Christian Haynes, IOL, UConn – 81**^(st)** overall to the Seahawks

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Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, Texas – 101**^(st)** overall to the Panthers

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T.J. Tampa, CB, Iowa State – 130**^(th)** overall to the Ravens

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Spencer Rattler, QB, South Carolina – 150**^(th)** overall to the Saints

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Jeremiah Trotter Jr., LB, Clemson – 155**^(th)** overall to the Eagles

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Kitan Oladapo, SAF, Oregon State – 169**^(th)** overall to the Packers

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Johnny Wilson, WR, Florida State – 185**^(th)** overall to the Eagles

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Mekhi Wingo, IDL, LSU – 189**^(th)** overall to the Lions

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Michael Pratt, QB, Tulane – 245**^(th)** overall to the Packers

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Other value picks:

Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama – 41^(st) overall to the Saints

Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL, Oregon – 44^(th) overall to the Raiders

Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri – 61^(st) overall to the Lions

Trey Benson, RB, Florida State – 66^(th) overall to the Cardinals

Roman Wilson, WR, Michigan – 84^(th) overall to the Steelers

Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon – 102^(nd) overall to the Broncos

Khyree Jackson, CB, Oregon – 108^(th) overall to the Vikings

Javon Baker, WR, UCF – 110^(th) overall to the Patriots

Jaden Hicks, SAF, Washington State – 133^(rd) overall to the Chiefs

Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, IOL, Georgia – 141^(st) overall to the Bills

Tommy Eichenberg, LB, Ohio State – 148^(th) overall to the Raiders

Mohamed Kamara, EDGE, Colorado State – 158^(th) overall to the Dolphins

Christian Jones, OT, Texas – 162^(nd) overall to the Cardinals

Tyrone Tracy, RB, Purdue – 166^(th) overall to the Giants

Walter Rouse, OT, Oklahoma – 177^(th) overall to the Vikings

Malik Washington, WR, Virginia – 184^(th) overall to the Dolphins

D.J. James, CB, Auburn – 192^(nd) overall to the Seahawks

Tanner McLachlan, TE, Arizona – 194^(th) overall to the Bengals

Khristian Boyd, IDL, Northern Iowa – 199^(th) overall to the Saints

Nathaniel Watson, LB, Mississippi State – 206^(th) overall to the Browns

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Reaches:

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https://preview.redd.it/4h7a0l5a03yc1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=dd7d95775a0a48219ceb5d69c38b4a380e3785c8

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All the first-round quarterbacks not named Caleb Williams and Drake Maye

I could have talked individually about at least three and you can make a case for all four other first-round quarterbacks here. This was a pretty unique year, because not only did we have three juniors in Caleb who won a Heisman at USC in 2022, Drake who was a quality starter for three years at North Carolina and J.J. McCarthy just helped Michigan win a national championship, with all three being top-six QBs in that recruiting class, but that was paired with three of these super seniors, who have changed schools across their six years in college and left their respective schools at the top of their games, as the top three in this past Heisman voting. Jayden Daniels (LSU) went second overall to the Commanders – over Drake Maye – when I thought he was a late first-round prospect. Michael Penix Jr. (Washington) was the big shocker at eighth overall, when I had him just inside my top-50 overall prospects. And even though the Vikings ultimately only moved up one spot for McCarthy, they did give up a fourth- and fifth-rounder for a six, in order to secure my QB6 and 64^(th) player on the big board. They all have their warts, which I discussed extensively in my quarterback rankings, but what’s important here is that they got pushed up due to the amount of desperate teams inside the top-12, as they set a new NFL record for how early those guys came off the board. To some degree that also includes Oregon’s Bo Nix, who I’d typically be very critical of taking QB6 at 12^(th) overall as the Broncos, but I did have him in a tier with Jayden Daniels as number 28 on my board, and they didn’t actually have to move up.

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The rest of the analysis can be found here!

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Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas – 28**^(th)** overall to the Chiefs

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Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina – 32**^(nd)** overall to the Panthers

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Maason Smith, IDL, LSU – 48**^(th)** overall to the Jaguars

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Patrick Paul, OT, Houston – 55**^(th)** overall to the Dolphins

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Caedan Wallace, OT, Penn State – 68**^(th)** overall to the Patriots

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Marist Liufau, LB, Notre Dame – 87**^(th)** overall to the Cowboys

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Luke McCaffrey, WR, Rice – 100**^(th)** overall to the Commanders

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Jordan Jefferson, IDL, LSU – 116**^(th)** overall to the Jaguars

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Tory Taylor, P, Iowa – 122**^(nd)** overall to the Bears

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Tarheeb Still, CB, Maryland – 136**^(th)** overall to the Chargers

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Keilan Robinson, RB, Texas – 167**^(th)** overall to the Jaguars

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Other questionable picks:

Ruke Orhrhoro, IDL, Clemson – 35^(th) overall to the Falcons

Roger Rosengarten, OT, Washington – 62^(nd) overall to the Ravens

Matt Goncalves, OT, Pittsburgh – 79^(th) overall to the Colts

Ty’Ron Hopper, LB, Missouri – 91^(st) overall to the Packers

Devontez Walker, WR, North Carolina – 113^(th) overall to the Ravens

A.J. Barner, TE, Michigan – 121^(st) overall to the Seahawks

Giovanni Manu, OT, British Columbia – 126^(th) overall to the Lions

Nehemiah Pritchett, CB, Auburn – 135^(th) overall to the Seahawks

Bub Means, WR, Pittsburgh – 170^(th) overall to the Saints

Jamal Hill, LB, Oregon – 188^(th) overall to the Texans

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If you enjoyed this article, please visit the original piece & feel free to check out my video content!

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Twitter: @ halilsfbtalk

Instagram: @ halilsrealfootballtalk

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In my opinion, I see 3 main candidates. Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr, and Joe Alt. My pick would probably be Alt, just based on the lesser risk of oline, and playing under Harbaugh. Yes there will likely be more than one hall of famer, but if you had to bet on one, who is it?

Hey CFB,

Not an avid follower of college football but was wondering if people could help rank the last 3 years worth of 1st round Edge/DE/Rusher etc.

I am asking in terms of how they were seen coming into the draft, basically based in terms of college production/ athleticism if all of these players were in the draft today where would they go.

Tiers are fine ofc, just wondering if people had a better insight than I do.

The list is:

2022

Travon Walker (1) Georgia (Jags)
Aidan Hutchinson (2) Michigan (Lions)
Kayvon Thibodeaux (5) Oregon (Giants)
Jermaine Johnson II (26) FSU (Jets)
George Karlaftis (30) Purdue (Chiefs)

2023

Will Anderson Jr. (3) Alabama (Texans)
Tyree Wilson (7) Texas Tech (Raiders)
Lukas Van Ness (13) Iowa (Packers)
Will McDonald IV (15) Iowa State (Jets)
Myles Murphy (28) Clemson (Bengals)
Nolan Smith (30) Georgia (Eagles)
Felix Anudike-Uzomah (31) Kansas State (Chiefs)

2024

Laiatu Latu (15) UCLA (Colts)
Dallas Turner (17) Alabama (Vikings)
Jared Verse (19) FSU (Rams)
Chop Robinson (22) Penn State (Dolphins)
Darius Robinson (27) Missouri (Cardinals)

P.S. I know some people show some inside/ outside versatile e.g. Darius Robinson.

Thanks in advance!

At one point, Spencer Rattler was supposed to go #1 overall. That was a couple of years ago. But even as recently as as the week before the draft, people were expecting him to go in the 2nd or 3rd round. He ended up falling all the way to Round 5, Pick 150 overall.

Why do you think that is?

One of the most interesting parts of the draft to me is seeing behind the curtain with how things played out/almost played out. What credible reports/rumors have you guys seen following the draft? Being a Lions fan, below are a couple examples I've gleaned from press conferences and beat reporters:

• GM Brad Holmes said the Lions had Terion Arnold as CB1 and Ennis Rakestraw as CB2 on their board among all prospects
• The Lions had the framework of a deal in place to trade up for Darius Robinson but pivoted to Terion Arnold once he unexpectedly began falling

As a reminder not to show too much certainty in your takes.

Multiple Chargers fans insisting OT and specifically Joe Alt wasn't an option.

Broncos fan saying they won't draft Bo Nix.

Bears fans saying no chance they go WR at 9.

Ravens fan saying no CB in the first round.

A Texans fan saying no OL/WR in first 3 rounds.

Eagles fan saying no DB in the first round, though he was a little more equivocal.

A Raiders fan talking about the wild mocks that have them taking Bowers.

Full thread here: https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/1c69c4w/lets_create_some_receipts_who_do_you_see_mocked/

The gems that are found in the later rounds of a draft can make or break a team's draft. In your opinion, which players taken in rounds 5-7 of this year's draft have the best chance to make an impact in the NFL year 1? Why?

Happy 10th year anniversary of this series! Not many hits last year. Don't know if that means that GMs are getting better at evaluating talent or if the drop off was steeper than prior years! Let's hear your thoughts about this years late round picks!

2015: https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/357uvo/which_players_that_were_taken_in_rounds_57_of_the/

2016: https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/4hvtvu/which_players_that_were_taken_in_rounds_57_of_the/

2017: https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/6a1y9z/which_players_that_were_taken_in_rounds_57_of_the/

2018: https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/8gzfwo/which_players_that_were_taken_in_rounds_57_of_the

2019: https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/bj3o21/which_players_that_were_taken_in_rounds_57_of_the/

2020: https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/gca1x5/which_players_that_were_taken_in_rounds_57_of_the/

2021: https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/n9dh1g/which_players_that_were_taken_in_rounds_57_of_the/

2022: https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/ujv19l/which_players_that_were_taken_in_rounds_57_of_the/

2023: https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/136mxxq/which_players_that_were_taken_in_rounds_57_of_the/

Appreciate everyone checking out the post. I love looking at the threads in this community because there is such a differing array of opinions in every thread. I'm hoping to find that same thing in this thread.

It's easy to say that Chase was a better prospect than Nabers so I'm curious how big of a gap between these two prospects r/NFL_Draft thinks there is.

Chase: 6'0" / 201lbs / 20 / SO / NFL Draft Top 5 (1.05)

Nabers: 6'0" / 200lbs / 20 / JR / NFL Draft Top 10 (1.06)

Receiving Lines

Chase (2019): 84 / 1780 / 20 (6 / 127.14 / 1.43)

Nabers (2023): 86 / 1546 / 14 (7.17 / 128.83 / 1.17)

High School Metrics

Chase: 4 Star, 40 Yard: 4.66 (28%), Vertical: 36.2" (71%), 20 Yard: 4.09 (87%)

Nabers: 4 Star, 40 Yard: 4.47 (76%), Vertical: 39" (92%), 20 Yard: 4.25 (56%)

Pro Day

Chase: 40 Yard: 4.34 (1.59 10 Yard), Broad: 132", 20 Yard: 3.99s, 3 Cone: 6.96s, Vertical: 41"

Nabers: 40 Yard: 4.35 (1.56 10 Yard), Broad: 129" 20 Yard: UNK, 3 Cone: UNK, Vertical: 42"

Highlight Reel

Chase: LINK

Nabers: LINK

Spent some time dissecting Shedeur Sanders game heading into 2024.

A lot he needs to clean up, but also some components I think that scouts are really going to like.

https://drafttalk.substack.com/p/2025-nfl-draft-film-study-shedeur

Every draft, players fall for various reasons. Ignoring guys who fall because of injuries or character concerns or other red flags, what is the fate of guys who fall for seemingly no reason? This year, that would be guys like Troy Franklin and TJ Tampa.

Does anyone have historical data on guys being selected way after their consensus big board ranking, and how they perform in the NFL? Again, excluding guys who fell for known reasons.

Every year, I redraft my team as if I was the GM, using their same picks, but getting 'my guys'. We have the advantage because we can see how the board falls and if we can wait an extra round to get a guy so there's never any reaches, but they have obviously a lot more info about the prospects. This is a fun exercise that uses a team's real draft capital and forces you to make the hard decisions to pass on somebody.

The rules are simple:

1. If you have pick 80, any player that was on the board at pick 80 can be drafted

Here is an image of the entire draft in one pic: https://imgur.com/LiTIeeZ

Here is an image of each teams' picks: https://imgur.com/R4Eppul

Good luck, here is last year's attempts, unfortunately nobody grabbed Puka Nacua: https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/135zs3s/youre_the_gm_redraft_your_team_using_their_picks/

Taulia is undrafted. Milton, Leary, and Pratt went in the 6th rounds and 7th round.

Btw I don’t think Taulia was a top5 college quarterback by any means. But the other guys in thread’s title aren’t either

Seems like Milton has huge size and arm but couldn’t ever consistently utilize it. Leary looked good in 2021 then got injured and was never the same, he’s also a bit older Taulia. Michael Pratt looks okay, it seems questionable that a guy from Deerfield beach didn’t try to transfer to a bigger name program such as Miami Hurricanes or Florida. Even UCF would be considered considered an upgrade from Tulane.

Have a bold prediction that you want to state proudly but will most likely look very stupid in short time? Have at it! Maybe you’ll nail it and look like a genius in the future

​

Please don’t downvote a user for a stupid bold prediction; it’s all just for fun!

To me, the Commanders and Raiders stood out to me as having distinct drafting philosophies.

For the Commanders, it was taking proven winners primarily from big time programs. The McCaffrey deviated from this a bit, although the logic there is likely his pedigree. Daniels, Newton, and Mike specifically stand out to me.

For the Raiders, it was taking gritty, tough players that will mesh well with their identity/culture (their coach and tone-setters like Max Crosby). The Raiders are like the Great Value brand Lions in the AFC. Bowers, JP-J, and Eichenberg, and Laube specifically stand out to me. I thought they had a fantastic Day 3. I think not getting Penix will benefit them in the long run (worth mentioning I do not think Penix will be good).

I found myself agreeing with most of their picks and thought both teams found great value.

Edit: I also liked the Saints draft class a lot.

This is the place to post your own work. You have a blog? You have a YouTube channel? You have a small scouting site starting up? Drop it here my friend. Unless you are writing for ESPN or B/R or something, this is where it should be.

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Posting this content outside this post will result in removal, and repeated posts may result in bans.

To start, my Ws were that I called Jer'Zahn Newton and Kool-Aid being second rounders and quinyon Mitchell being CB1 before senior bowl.

My biggest Ls were having an late first/early second round grade on T.J. Tampa and Payton Wilson.

I liked my big corner okay?

I made a video on my draft grades, thought it'd be easier to click record instead of typing an essay. Which teams capitalized on their picks? Thought overall, this was a great draft for the majority of teams.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HHwUjWxqbo

Draft Network

https://www.thedraftnetwork.com/2024/04/27/2025-nfl-mock-draft-early

Link is in the description

• 1- Jalen Milroe (QB)- Carolina Panthers

• 2- Will Campbell (OT)- New England Patriots

• 3- Luther Burden III (WR)- Denver Broncos

• 4- Travis Hunter (CB)- Washington Commanders

• 5- James Pearce (EDGE)- Tennessee Titans

• 6- Shedeur Sanders (QB)- New York Giants

• 7- Patrick Payton (EDGE)- Arizona Cardinals

• 8- Carson Beck (QB)- New Orleans Saints

• 9- Will Johnson (CB)- Minnesota Vikings

• 10- Tetairoa McMillan (WR)- Las Vegas Raiders

• 11- Cam Ward (QB)- Seattle Seahawks

• 12- Benjamin Morrison (CB)- Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• 13- Malaki Starks (S)- Indianapolis Colts

• 14- Emeka Egbuka (WR)- Pittsburgh Steelers

• 15- Tacario Davis (CB)- Los Angeles Chargers

• 16- Kelvin Banks Jr (OT)- Jacksonville Jaguars

• 17- Quidshon Judkins (RB)- Cleveland Browns

• 18- Walter Nolen (IDL)- Chicago Bears

• 19- Evan Stewart (WR)- Los Angeles Rams

• 20- Tyler Booker (IOL)- New York Jets

• 21- Abdul Carter (EDGE)- Atlanta Falcons

• 22- Colston Loveland (TE)- Miami Dolphins

• 23- Emery Jones (OT)- Green Bay Packers

• 24- Deone Walker (IDL)- Houston Texans

• 25- Dani Dennis-Sutton (EDGE)- Philadelphia Eagles

• 26- Quinn Ewers (QB)- Dallas Cowboys

• 27- Jack Sawyer (EDGE)- Buffalo Bills

• 28- Princely Umanmielen (EDGE)- Cincinnati Bengals

• 29- Landon Jackson (EDGE)- Detroit Lions

• 30- Treveyon Henderson (RB)- Baltimore Ravens

• 31- Jabbar Muhammad (CB)- Kansas City Chiefs

• 32- Mason Graham (IDL)- San Francisco 49ers

Hi draftniks, I'm Kaptain and I like data and stuff. So, I wanted to take a look at how we did as a community compared to the big show this weekend. I use the Jimmy Johnson value chart to calculate the difference between picks.

Note: If anything looks wrong, please let me know. There was some name matching stuff and names can get spelled wrong or spelled differently between the two drafts. Also, UDFA is treated as a value of 258 in the value difference equations because that's more fun than leaving them out entirely.

First things first, here is a sheet that shows the comparison: >>CLICK HERE<<

Secondly, wanted to point out some interesting things...

#We as a community got 84.4% of the correct names from the actual draft in our official mock draft. The best year since I started tracking this. Well done!

Accuracy by year:

Now on to some top/bottom 5 categories (ignoring top 5 selections, due to JJ's top-heaviness)...

#Top Five Community Mock REACHES

Bonus - Highest community drafted player that was UDFA in the real draft: Leonard Taylor was mocked at 3.80 by the Kansas City Chiefs.

#Top Five Community Mock STEALS

Bonus - Highest actually drafted player that was UDFA in the mock draft: Tarheeb Still was drafted at 5.137 by the Los Angeles Chargers

#Most Accurate Community War Rooms (on average absolute difference)

#Least Accurate Community War Rooms (on average absolute difference)

Absolute difference just means that (for example) Rome Odunze would be a difference of -2, but an absolute difference of 2. Using absolute difference as an average works better because, in theory, a team could be off by -50 on one pick and 50 on the next, but their average would be zero. With absolute averaged, they instead get a value of 50, which shows that their board wasn't very similar to ours.

#Community Teams that made matching picks

Extra shoutout to the all the bolded war rooms for nailing their pick exactly on the correct pick number!

#Finally, community teams that did NOT mock a real draft UDFA to their team during the community mock

That's all I wanted to do for now, but if you have any other questions or inquiries into this, just let me know in the comments!

Correct me I'm wrong, but with only two off-ball linebackers on the field the position group can't afford to be so specialized. Sams are basically extinct, they're all just edges now and the two guys out there are sort of expected to be Mike/Will hybrids. Or at least that's what I gather from how Green Bay has drafted at the position. A lot of these old school reporters keep talking about what spots Quay, Edgerrin, and Hop project at and all I can think is "Aren't these all the same dude?"

I am dumbfounded at what ATL was thinking with this pick and would love to know what management was thinking. They just signed Kirk to a 4 year deal ($160M I believe, largely guaranteed??), so it seems way too early for them to already be thinking about his replacement. I am in favor of QBs having a year or two to learn before being thrown into the fray, but 4 years, particularly for a guy with a deeply concerning injury history, is way too long of a learning period. Can anyone make sense of this pick?

This thought experiment was done last year and was made by a different poster (not sure who, but if anyone remembers, feel free to shout them out).

The rules are that you can add 5 players from each round (so 5 first rounders, 5 second rounders, etc.) until you fill out a roster. You can tweak the numbers as you see fit depending on how “deep” you want to go (such as doing only starters or making an actual 2-deep line-up).

This was mine from last year as an example:

QB1: Haener (4)

RB1, RB2: Bijan (1), Gray (5)

WR1, WR2, WR3: Q Johnson (1), Mims (2), Darius Davis (4)

TE1, TE2: Kraft (3), Josh Whyle (5)

LT: Wanya Morris (3)

OG: Avila (2)

C: Andrews (4)

OG: Mauch (2)

RT: Freeland (4)

5 DB’s (CB or S or Nickel): Brents (2), Luter Jr. (5), JL Skinner (6), Scott Jr. (6), Jason Taylor II (7)

3 LB’s (OLB or ILB): Overshown (3), Mapu (3), Nick Hampton (5)

4 D-Line (DT or DE or Edge): Tyree Wilson (1), FAU (1), Karl Brooks (6), Coburn (6)

1 Utility Player (Off or Def): Kuntz (7)

It looks like I did 5 players from the first round, 4 players from rounds 2-6, and 2 players from round 7 (I didn’t want to go into backups). I didn’t do kickers/punters.

As you can see, I missed on most of my picks (obviously these guys can still develop and some will likely end up being quality starters, but I could have done better).

Hey everyone, over the next few Days I will be breaking down 5 out of the 6 Detroit Lions rookies. The links will be to the individual tweets that have film attached to them so you can also see what I am talking about.

Overall Tweet Thread: https://twitter.com/CoachBirach/status/1784949910799823277

1. First thing first I want to address his 40 yard dash time. I know he ran a 4.50, but the tape tells a different story. Watch him match pace towards the backend of this rep. If that speed is a 4.50 then it is time for me to retire! He is closer to low 4.4, high 4.3 territory.

https://twitter.com/CoachBirach/status/1784949916747370976

2. Next we can look into his hips. Terrion Arnold has the most fluid hips you will find in the draft. There are aspects to watch for when determining hip fluidity. The ability to accelerate while opening hips is key to look for. The first clip is a great example of this.

https://twitter.com/CoachBirach/status/1784949919163330968

3. The first clip here is another great example of accelerating while opening up his hips. The second clip he opens his hips over 100 degrees to drive on the out route and barely allows separation. This hip fluidity will allow Arnold to be proficient against WR's with burst.

https://twitter.com/CoachBirach/status/1784949921268871527

4. Arnold's hip fluidity is also added in how fast his feet move. Watch the speed of his feet. You see the hip fluidity discussed above, combined with lightning fast feet allow him to break on the route he's covering and smother it. He makes an extremely tough move look routine.

https://twitter.com/CoachBirach/status/1784949923223351718

5. The quick feet plus hip fluidity are polished even more by a downhill playstyle. If you give Terrion Arnold a chance to come downhill, he will say please and thank you. The force he comes downhill with shows a level of excitement you don't get often from corners in college

https://twitter.com/CoachBirach/status/1784949925211496644

6. Whether it's his WR or a checkdown option, he is excited to fly downhill. Both of these clips the WR doesn't catch the ball, but still comes downhill with the intent to kill. His hip fluidity and quick hips keep him in phase during the route and allow him to burst downhill.

https://twitter.com/CoachBirach/status/1784949927312838951

7. This translates over to the run game as well. Each of these clips show burst and conviction when coming to play through a ball carrier's face. The last clip also shows him defining the fit and protecting the edge, and making an excellent tackle that not many could make.

https://twitter.com/CoachBirach/status/1784949929334411650

8. Now we will zoom out to his play in the pass game. He has a very strong ability to drive on routes. Note his pad level in both clips. He gets his pads down to help drive on the route. Second clip, that is an extremely tough play to make, so having good technique is crucial.

https://twitter.com/CoachBirach/status/1784949931368739289

9. The way Arnold plays 10 yard in-breaking routes is really good. We can get in the low hip or high hip and still make the play with ease. This shows a level of pre snap awareness that will translate to NFL Sundays.

https://twitter.com/CoachBirach/status/1784949933369352208

10. Another Sunday level ability is Arnold's ability to see the bigger picture. The first and third clips are great examples of watching and reacting to receivers crossing the field and exchanging those routes. The second clip is holding height, not taking the bait underneath.

https://twitter.com/CoachBirach/status/1784949935495856339

11. There is a level of discipline to Arnold's game as well. Watch these clips vs trick plays. These get played perfectly. Not biting up on the fakes, but rather keeping his job integrity and stopping them from developing at all. Will be an essential task at the next level.

https://twitter.com/CoachBirach/status/1784949937504997441

12. Elite play isn't enough to make a corner elite. Their communication skills have to be elite as well. Watch him pre snap for both of these clips. You can see his head moving for verbal communication while giving hand signals. This is consistent across all the games I watched.

https://twitter.com/CoachBirach/status/1784949939442729348

13. It's also good to see a 21 year old corner showing good use of smart, advanced techniques. Watch both clips at the top of the route. He does what I call a hop step, quickly hopping to flip his hips quicker and break faster. Allows him to seal the game in the first clip.

https://twitter.com/CoachBirach/status/1784949941409906751

14. The level of maturity this kid shows is impressive as well. He always celebrates with his teammates. If Arnold makes a big play, at most it's a small pop off to himself. When a teammate makes a big play? He is over the moon. I always love seeing a great teammate on film!

https://twitter.com/CoachBirach/status/1784949943385419973

15. I love his tape, but there are some aspects to clean up at the next level. First is connecting to the WR around 8 yards. He has to build the habit of connecting to better react to the WR's route. A few too many times he didn't get connected which caused him to get thrown by.

https://twitter.com/CoachBirach/status/1784949945541202129

16. Occasionally he relies on his uber fluid hips too much. Watch in the clips for when he flips his hips. Both clips he could have been more patient and held his hips even to play the route more cleanly. Just because you can flip your hips doesn't mean you necessarily should.

https://twitter.com/CoachBirach/status/1784949947860689046

17. Finally I would like to see Arnold define the picture more consistently. What I mean by that is setting the edge quick and early. Waiting can cause a cloudy picture, slowing the reactions of others. The final clip shows he's capable of this, so it is definitely fixable.

https://twitter.com/CoachBirach/status/1784949949769118027

Terrion Arnold is a CB you can park on an NFL field and let him do the rest. The level of awareness and game knowledge he possesses for a 21 year old is mind blowing. Plus, his level of athleticism makes it tough to bust on him. I believe Terrion Arnold is a pro bowl caliber player that is ready to start Day 1, with his ceiling being an All-Pro player. I still cannot believe the Lions were lucky enough to draft the best Corner in the draft and can't wait to see him in honolulu blue this season!

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