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Last Week in Collapse: June 16-22, 2024

Summer 2024 has begun—and we are not ready. Disasters, heat waves, record energy demand, and the uncontrolled demolition of Ukraine, Gaza, & Sudan.

Last Week in Collapse: June 16-22, 2024

This is Last Week in Collapse, a weekly newsletter compiling some of the most important, timely, useful, soul-crushing, ironic, stunning, exhausting, or otherwise must-see/can’t-look-away moments in Collapse.

This is the 130th newsletter, marking the two-and-a-half year anniversary of this newsletter. You can find the June 9-15 edition here if you missed it last week. You can also receive these posts (with images) every Sunday in your email inbox with Substack.


The head of the UN World Food Programme claimed 40% of the world’s land is degraded—a figure that could jump to 95% by mid-century. A growing fraction of the world’s land—and population—is therefore dependent on food imports; see Morocco. And with worsening agricultural harvests, drought, and supply difficulties, feeding these people will not be easy. Roughly 100M hectares of land are desertified or degraded every year—equivalent to…well, a lot. Borneo is just under 75M hectares, and Wikipedia lists it as the 3rd largest non-continental island.

A 6.3 earthquake struck 25km off Peru, in the ocean—causing no damage. Flodding in Assam affected 105,000+ people. In southern China, flooding damaged thousands of homes, 8,000+ hectares of crops, and killed at least 12 people. The city of Guilin saw 30+ cm of rain in 6 hours—its largest flood on record. Drought, poverty, and land degradation in Nigeria continue.

At least 2 people died from heatstroke in Cyprus, following a Mediterranean heat wave. A heat wave struck southern Russia, bringing temperatures as high as 39 °C in some places. A wildfire in LA is growing, forcing the evacuation of 1,200+ residents. A recent study in European Geosciences Union confirms the obvious: large wildfires create hotter & drier temperatures by trapping soot in the air, which contributes to a feedback loop that makes future wildfires in the region more likely.

Worldwide, this June will probably be the hottest June on record—perhaps exceeding last year by 0.2 °C. One scientist indicated that June 13, 2024, was the all-time hottest day on earth since records began. Observers are forecasting the Paris Olympics to be the hottest ever Olympic Games. Yet in Australia, winter has begun as one of the coldest starts of winter in decades.

A heat wave hit Taiwan, and Japan is expecting its hottest summer ever. South Korea felt its hottest June day of all time—37.7 °C (100 °F). A heat wave also struck Brazil. A storm in Chile forced 11,000 to leave their homes, and also killed one person. A landslide in Ecuador killed 8+, with 11 still missing. Several also died in Guatemala & El Salvador from damage caused by excessive rainfall. Extreme weather is upon us, and there is nothing you can do to change it.

Over 1,050 pilgrims have died from heat waves during this year’s Hajj. Temperatures reached as high as 51.8 °C (125 °F) in Mecca. Extreme heat also hit Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran, plus their groundwater reserves are being depleted. Across Central Asia, composed mostly of deserts, sandstorms are becoming more common as the Aral Sea disappears; these dust/sandsotrms also aggravate glacial melt in the Causauses and the Altai Mountains. Around 1,700 wildfires have been identified across Brazil’s tropical wetlands, before the dry season has even begun. At least 125 people in Mexico have died from heat stroke this year.

India has logged 40,000+ {suspected} heat stroke cases already, and 100+ deaths. Meanwhile, near the India/Bangladesh border, landslides killed 15 people. The American state of Maine experienced its hottest June day, as did some places in Atlantic Canada.

An interesting study in American Meteorology Society looked at the Andes Mountains, and concluded that greenhouse gas emissions may actually reduce the likelihood of Drought—although increased aerosols increase the chance of Drought. This tracks with earlier reports that say 2023 was a wetter-than-average year, despite many regions experiencing Megadrought.

Italy rerouted tourist ferries away from Capri because the town, undergoing a desperate water shortage, could not accommodate the tourists’ water demand. Heat stroke and its symptoms is becoming more common. Drought has damaged crops in central China.

A study in Science Advances looked at the effect on surface air temperatures caused by cloud coverage. Clouds warm the earth at night by trapping radiation, yet cool the earth during the daytime by reflecting sunlight back. Long-term, on a global scale, there tends to be greater cloud coverage at night than during the day, meaning that the cloud coverage “asymmetry, therefore, turns out to be an amplifier of surface warming, by both decreasing the daytime cloud shortwave albedo effect and increasing the nighttime cloud longwave greenhouse effect.”

An interesting website from the University of Maryland’s Center for Environmental Science allows you to search any of 40,000+ places on a map and check the climate forecast for the year 2080. Their database is based on predictions made by the IPCC, and does not account for all possible climate factors (like an early breakdown of the AMOC). You can also customize your settings to measure for an optimistic reduced emissions future, and also see an average of 5 forecasts. Some scholars disagree with the methodology used by the IPCC to forecast future climate conditions.

A study in Science Direct examined the economic costs of Aedes mosquitoes carrying “Dengue, Zika and chikungunya,” among other viruses. The scientists believe the economic cost is underestimated—and projected to worsen. The cost of treating the sick is far more than the cost of managing the spread of mosquitoes/virus—but budgeting for prevention requires long-term thinking and acting responsibly, which are not common traits among homo sapiens.


Rising heat is overburdening India’s electrical grids, especially as air conditioners are made more widely available. “Power consumption in the northern state of Punjab has increased by 43% so far this month compared with the same period last year.” Another major growing powersuck, AI, has propelled Nvidia to become the “most valuable company” in the world. The AI demand is still only beginning.

The 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy report came out a few days ago, and its 76 pages cover energy developments & consumption in the year 2023. It reports a still-rapidly industrializing China, producing & consuming coal, wind, solar, LNG, and oil. China has also exceeded the U.S. in its capacity to refine oil for the first time. The Global South, which consumes about 56% of the world’s energy, is seeing its overall demand grow at twice the rate of developed countries. The report also contains some amazing data tables detailing the various energy production for about 60 countries year-by-year from 2013-2023—and regional energy summaries.

Total primary energy consumption increased by 2% over its 2022 level, 0.6% above its ten-year average and over 5% above its 2019 pre-COVID level….consumption of crude oil broke through the 100 million barrels per day level for the first time ever and coal demand beat the previous year’s record level….whilst North America witnessed a modest increase in oil consumption of around 0.8%, demand in Europe fell by nearly 1% to 13.9 million barrels per day. By contrast, the Asia Pacific region saw an increase of over 5% to 38 million barrels per day….Global {liquified natural} gas production remained relatively constant compared to 2022…. The US remains the largest producer of gas delivering around a quarter of the world’s supply….Global coal production reached its highest ever level (179 exajoules), beating the previous high set the year before. The Asia Pacific region accounted for nearly 80% of global output with activity concentrated in just four countries, Australia, China, India, and Indonesia….coal retained its position as the dominant fuel for power generation in 2023 with a stable share around 35%....Wind achieved a record year for new build with over 115 GW coming online. Nearly 66% of capacity additions were in China and its total installed capacity is now equal to North America and Europe combined. Solar accounted for 75% (346 GW) of the capacity additions with China responsible for around a quarter of the growth.” -excerpts from the key highlights

The New York Governor is considering a mask ban on NYC subways and at protests, following backlash to pro-Palestinian protestors. Ohio is also considering similar policies—although mask mandates were necessary in some of these places less than 2 years ago. Some think COVID is gone for good—and bird flu may be next. Nevertheless, Long COVID persists for people of all ages. Symptoms of Long COVID include, but are not limited to: “shortness of breath, cough, persistent fatigue, post-exertional malaise, difficulty concentrating, memory changes, recurring headache, lightheadedness, fast heart rate, sleep disturbance, problems with taste or smell, bloating, constipation, and diarrhea.”

Two South Africans died from mpox, formerly monkeypox. At least 5 others were confirmed to have been infected. There have now been, since January 2022, over 97,000 confirmed cases of mpox worldwide, with 186 known deaths—according to a 19-page WHO report. That would suggest a CFR of less than 0.2%.

A 21-page report on Canadian poverty by Food Banks Canada claims about 25% of people in Canada are in poverty—according to a “material deprivation index.”

Analysts are worried about potential dieoffs of Scotland’s salmon as the higher temperatures bring algae and more harmful sealife. Meanwhile, wet temperatures are damaging some of Ireland’s potato harvests. The IMF is giving Pakistan another bailout, but the country’s plans to raise taxes to guarantee the $3B+ is adding unrest to an already unstable society.

The U.S. EPA says that at least 25% of American yards have unsafe levels of lead in their soil. The full study in GeoHealth, which surveyed tens of thousands of yards, claims “We do not think this type of mitigation is feasible at the massive scale required.”

The knockout of a transmission line in Ecuador caused a nationwide blackout for 18M people. Around the same time as a report of microplastics in 100% of semen samples, research emerged of PFAS chemicals in men’s testicles. PFAS can also be found in the blood, brain, and even bones—among other places.


Skirmishes between Filipino & Chinese small vessels in the Spratly Islands left Filipino sailors & equipment damaged. Posturing around Taiwan’s independence has increased since Taiwan’s new President won in January—and it may prove to be more than mere posturing.

Tension is building over a water treaty between Mexico and the United States, concerning quantities of water promised to the U.S.—difficult to give up amid a serious Drought. In Haiti, displacements continue from gangster-fighters; 5% of the country is said to be displaced, while half the nation faces “acute hunger.” A drive-by shooting targeted the family of Colombia’s vice president—probably another escalating violent act by a FARC-splinter group known as the EMC. Rebels protesting Niger’s post-coup ruling junta attacked a pipeline which brings crude oil to Benin.

Some say the West, or the UK anyway, are already at War against a “new axis of totalitarianism” led by Iran, Russia, China, and North Korea. A long (German-language) report on dangers faced by Germany came out last week. Among the threat profiles, “far-right violence, Islamist extremism and cyber-attacks from Russia and China” are particularly concerning to officials. In Myanmar, fighting which obstructed the delivery of food is pushing 90,000+ residents toward a breaking point, since many have run out of food, fuel, and medicine. In Louisiana, public schools have been ordered to put up a poster of the 10 Commandments in every classroom. (What would you say are the 10 Commandments of Collapse?)

President Putin’s terms to end the Ukraine War were flatly rejected. Ukraine confirmed that the legendary “Ghost of Kyiv” pilot has been killed in action. Russia launched more attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, particularly in Kharkiv. Russia and North Korea signed an expansive agreement dealing with defense, investment, aid, and more. Another trespassing of North Korean soldiers into the Southern DMZ section prompted warning shots. Russia’s massive ground offensive to take Kharkiv has entered its second month, and 25,000+ Ukrainians have been displaced from the industrial city—Ukraine’s second-most populous (1.4M+) city before the full-scale invasion.

Conscription squads” reportedly move through parts of Ukraine, looking for draft dodgers to abduct & transport to enlistment centers. These squads appear on public transit, at restaurants, supermarkets, and parks, among other places, and their presence is also damaging to morale. Yet Ukraine needs the men to keep the War going; there will be little rebuilding soon either way. Russia is also sending teams to track draft dodgers inside Russia, resulting in more men fleeing the country. Russia has reportedly lost 14,000 artillery units since the full-scale invasion began.

A 132-page report on nuclear terrorism was finalized last week by a large committee at the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. “A particularly troubling development is the existence of U.S.-based accelerationist groups who have been deliberately recruiting U.S. military personnel....State actors could potentially collaborate with terrorist groups….the nature of nuclear terrorism is that it involves both state and non-state actors,” says the summary. That being said, the report begins by emphasizing that it does not foresee “an imminent terrorist nuclear attack.”

The largest munitions depot in Chad caught fire and blew up, killing 9 and injuring 46+ people. Robberies, shelling, sexual violence, and unyielding fear are omnipresent in refugee camps in Goma, in the eastern DRC, where M23 and other gangsters continue to victimize roughly 700,000 displaced people. Attacks on “human rights defenders” are a daily occurance, and growing more common. For the many unlucky, there is no post-Collapse, only a perpetual precarity—into which future generations are brought through.

What is War if not an attempt to influence the minds of others? A 140-page global report on attacks on education—through explosives, gunfire, occupation, murdering teachers, abducting schoolchildren, child-soldier recruitment, and more—found that such attacks rose in 2022 and 2023 by 20% compared to previous years. Gaza in particular accounted for 475+ incidents in 2023, with more following through 2024. Over 80% of schools in Gaza have been damaged or destroyed as of April. The full report has breakdowns by country for those interested.

Israel’s top officials are allegedly finalizing plans for an “all-out War against Hezbollah, following months of tit-for-tat strikes by both sides across the Lebanon-Israel border, which have displaced about 150,000 combined. In Gaza, a cash shortage is unfolding as a result of armed bank robbers seizing currency holdings. Over 100 Palestinians die each week, with hundreds more injured, by airstrikes and ground fighting every week. One airstrike in Gaza targeting a senior Hamas leader slew 38 people. Meanwhile, the Greek-owned, Liberia-flagged, Filipino-run coal carrier known as Tutor has sunk, a week after Houthi rebels attacked it with missiles and a sea drone. It was the second cargo ship sunk by the Houthis after October 7—after the Rubymar. In Gaza, since garbage services have stopped, 330,000+ tonnes of trash have piled up so far, causing vomiting, diarrhea, and skin rashes to many forced to live amid the worsening squalor.

“57 per cent of Gaza’s cropland has been damaged….Real Gross Domestic Product in Gaza has declined by over 83 per cent….The food supply chain in Gaza has been severely disrupted….over one million people have been forced out of Rafah since the onset of the Israeli forces’ ground operation there on 7 May….Access to water is critically low, with people having to queue for long hours to collect it and being forced to rely on sea water for domestic use….People are using shallow pit latrines, and there is a continuing spread of communicable illnesses, amid sewage overflow, the proliferation of insects, rodents and snakes, and a near-total lack of hygiene items and sanitation facilities….There are also growing reports of gender-based violence, particularly domestic violence and early marriage….no distributions of our or food parcels have taken place recently, and basic food items on the market are largely unaffordable…” -excerpts from a short UN report

“Nowhere is safe” in Sudan, according to one major UN official. War, Drought, and Displacement continue to ravage the land & people of Sudan. 40% of people inside the country lack access to “basic water services”, and some two thirds lack “basic sanitation.” Several hundred Sudanese were refouled by Egyptian security forces after officials launched a crackdown on black-skinned people in Cairo & Aswan. Reports emerged alleging that the RSF forces have spilled over into the Central African Republic in order to recruit more fighters. This map details the complex territorial control as of 11 June. Over 18M people inside Sudan are facing “acute hunger” now, and officials are calling it the worst famine on earth in the last 40 years.


Select comments/threads from the subreddit last week suggest:

-Some people are never going to awaken to Collapse, if this thoughtful comment and its replies are a good indication of human nature. It’s nigh impossible to bring someone to Collapse who isn’t ready on an intellectual & emotional/psychological level. The stronger the threats to civilization, the stronger the denial. Truth doesn’t always prevail.

-There are more permanently lost phenomena (like the death of old growth forests, large-scale one-way insect dieoff, coral reefs bleaching) than you remember. This thread crowdsources many other such examples.

-New-slavery, blackouts, migrant deaths, and the breakdown of centralization, mostly in Italy, according to this weekly observation.

Got any feedback, questions, comments, complaints, recommendations, etc.? Check out the Last Week in Collapse SubStack if you don’t want to check r/collapse every Sunday, you can receive this newsletter sent to your (or someone else’s) email inbox every weekend. What did I forget this week?

13:10 UTC


Am I naive for still holding onto some resemblance of hope for humanity?

The collapse of societies and the biosphere seems to be extremely likely, but I just keep believing that even though life is going to suck really hard for everyone, someone is going to survive somewhere. We're currently at 8 billion motherfuckers.

Like, I still see what humanity has been capable of doing and accomplishing and you take it from the perspective of all species, then we're pretty fucking incredible. We've been able to split the atom, go to the moon and build particle accelerators. Our impact on the global climate is a testament to our unbelievable power.

It seems extremely unlikely to me that we will go extinct, unless we get unlucky with a super volcano or asteroid impact. We know how to industrially produce fertilizer and we could grow algae and start insect farming without relying on the climate.

It's still not a world that I look forward to living in, and I'm sure that billions will catastrophically perish, but if we survive there is still the possibility for a better future for our species, right?

03:43 UTC


Hydroponics in a post-arable world?

Massive instability in climate will hurt our food production. Why are we not preparing more on a large scale by building hydroponic facilities?

The technology seems so promising. I’m aware that there is an energy cost, but as a matter of national security of all countries you would think there would be a lot more investment in this field.

They say that growing food and veggies in doors consumes 99% less water and because it’s a controlled environment it doesn’t require pesticides, herbicides etc. it’s also not destroying the earth by Continually depleting it of minerals and you can control from not having spoiled by food due to the ever increasing contaminated ground water from industry.

I see all these cool backyard and small scale hydroponic projects where people grow a lot of food quickly using vertical pvc pipes with drip irrigation and low energy LEDs.

A place like India IMO should invest heavily into this. When the Ukraine war started it shook the supply chains all over the world, and that was just one country. What is this going to look like when arable crops fail all over the world at the same time?

I’m incredible worried that food and water shortages will fuel mass immigration quickly and that neighboring countries will be overwhelmed followed by extremism, violence and war.

With hydroponics we can grow food anywhere. There is an energy cost, but you can grow all year in temperature controlled environments. You can grow in large population centers without the need for transportation.

Can anyone tell me, or explain to me where is this technology fits at scale in the future?

17:37 UTC


June 22, 2024 | The Extreme Weather Report

17:08 UTC


I want to create a video for future generations

I want to create a video documenting the failure and collapse of our civilization.i want to show the coming generations what they missed. When I say “show future generations what they missed, I don’t mean it in a hostile way (haha, fuck you got mine). It’s more like (this is the way life was, we were too busy, scared, held down by the police state I.e. the pigs [cops], held down by lobbyists, etc.)

The video would discuss very ordinary things like food, cars, urban planing, animals, etc. After a series of facts, I would interject with opinions and my general yappening of my relation the to subject.

What do you think? I know some YouTubers walk around their city documenting economic decline, but this would be a story/ message for the future generations (that is if we have any, if not hopefully people in year 3000 or aliens see my video)

12:16 UTC


Do you believe that humans will (eventually) go extinct?

There are some theories as to how humanity will end such as the expansion of the universe or even implosion. Our sun is slowly dying as well and will eventually engulf the entire planet, along with us.

What I'm asking about is a more immediate threat of extinction. The one caused by climate change.

Do you believe that humans will go extinct as a result of climate change and the various known and unknown issues it will cause? If so, when will it happen?

Or do you believe that we will be able to save some semblance of humanity, or even solve the entire threat of climate change altogether? If so, how?

14:55 UTC


June 25, 2024, at 2 p.m. EDT / Invitation from Prof Guy McPherson / The Peoples' Forum for Cooling the Planet / Zoom Meeting

Prof Guy McPherson has just released a video. It is a call to action.

There are too many factors and far too much chaos ahead for anyone to know for certain what state the earth will be in following the collapse. 

I would rather fight than not fight, even if I know there are only horrors ahead in my lifetime.

Most likely, there will be habitable regions of the planet. Even if the conditions are not survivable for humans, even if only extremophiles remain, I still think every square inch of a potentially life-sustaining environment is worth fighting for.

Or maybe it is worth organizing just so we have some say in how collapse happens. I'm sick of the super wealthy fucking over every living thing on this planet while the reasonable people are silenced just so a handful of delusional psychopaths turn our only home into a toxic wasteland. Seriously, why are some of the stupidest people on this planet LARPing as space explorers with impotent rockets while our planet turns to ash? If we organized and took collective action, I think we could change at least *some* things for the better even if we are too late to save civilization.

I'm going to join this forum. I want to support anyone that is trying to do something. 

Even if you're not planning to be an activist, maybe there will be opportunities to find community via this effort. Please consider joining and volunteering.

Here is the video invitation from McPherson.

There is a person available to contact listed. 

"Please send comments and questions to Jamen Shively at jamenshively@gmail.com."

Here is a google doc with associated information.

Here is the information that was posted along with the video:

Invitation to A Peoples’ Forum for Cooling the Planet  (PFCP)

Everyone is welcome to join us.

We will meet every Tuesday, at 2 p.m. EDT, in our Zoom room, starting June 25:


Our first Tuesday meeting, on June 25, 2024, at 2 p.m. EDT is a special Volunteers’ Pre-meeting for PFCP.  During the first hour of this pre-meeting, we will present an introduction to PFCP, as well as an overview of the various volunteer opportunities (e.g., hosting breakout rooms, providing Zoom support, providing specialty consulting, etc.).  Even folks who are merely curious about the possibility of volunteering are welcome to join us, with zero pressure to sign up to volunteer, ever.

After the first hour, we will collaborate on planning for the first General Meeting of the PFCP ( A People’s Forum for Cooling the Planet ), which will happen one week later.  This is but the first of many opportunities to get volunteer orientation.

General Meetings of the PFCP

Starting on Tuesday July 2, 2024, at 2 p.m. EDT, we will commence weekly General Meetings of the PFCP (always on Tuesdays, starting at 2 p.m. Eastern, and always in the same Zoom room, link above).  The first General Meeting will start with introductory statements and presentations by the initiators of PFCP, notably including Professor Guy McPherson.  These presentations will be recorded and uploaded to this YouTube channel.

Goals of a People’s Forum for Cooling the Planet (PFCP)

The goal of A People’s Forum for Cooling the Planet (PFCP) is first and foremost to answer three fundamental questions:

1.  Can we cool our planet in time*?  

2.  If so, how can we accomplish this, technically?

3.  And if we can accomplish this technically, then how do we accomplish the needed full-scale technical implementations politically, culturally, socially, economically, financially, story-wise, media-wise, PR-wise, green energy-wise, and all other relevant dimensions-wise?  (In other words, are we wise enough, as a species, to collectively snap out of our collective delusions, addictions, and associated omnicidal trajectories to pull this off, if indeed it turns out to be feasible technically?  And if so, how . . . including “who does what”, “who pays for it”, “who is informed, consulted, etc.”, and “whose permission / buy-in should we seek for which parts” ?)

*In time for what?  The short answer:  In time to stop, and then reverse the runaway overheating of our planet, and in time to stop the simultaneous runaway destruction of our biosphere (driven mostly, at this point in time, by runaway overheating), including the mass extinction event we are in the midst of.

Beyond the preceding “Big Three” questions, we will delve into myriad other questions and topics, such as those explored here.

Bottom line:  We are setting out to do our part, as humanity (as opposed to "as government" or "as academia", etc.) to cool the planet.  As "the people", that is.


Format of A People’s Forum for Cooling the Planet

There are two distinct phases of the format of A People’s Forum for Cooling the Planet (PFCP), as far as your experience of it, as a participant or volunteer:  Phase I and Phase II.  These two Phases are not “sequential phases”, but rather, “phases of your experience”.  You are welcome to jump back and forth between Phases I and II as often as you like, spend as much time as you would like in each Phase, etc.

Phase I:  

Phase I is all about ALL of us (initiators, volunteers, participants, etc.) getting connected, meeting each other, and getting related to each other and to the topic space:  planetary overheating, and its opposite — cooling the planet, and everything related to that undertaking.

Phase I will include:

  • Introductory statements, presentations, and Q&A
  • Q&A with Professor Guy McPherson
  • World Cafe events
  • Other networking and educational opportunities, which will be ongoing, both for newcomers and regulars alike

Phase II:

Phase II consists of an unbounded network of conversations happening in parallel.  Phase II is designed to be as close as possible to the original Forums in ancient Greece and Rome, in which anyone could either listen in on, or participate in, any conversation within the boundaries of the Forum.

There are two major differences between the Forum in ancient Athens, and this PFCP:

1.  Location:  The PFCP takes place on Zoom, and specific conversations take place within specific breakout rooms, to which all participants have access at all times, just as was the case with the ancient Athens Forum.

2.  Topics:  The conversations in PFCP are focused on all topics (and subtopics, etc.) related to the Big Three questions posed above, as well as the myriad related topics such as these (same link as above):

1 Comment
03:04 UTC


What are some aspects of Our "cherished " Earth that have been permanently damaged due to Human Activity and can never be recovered fixed or solved forever?

Hello my fellow collapseneiks, I hope you are enjoying our impending destruction brought to you by our greedy corporations and useless politicians,

I have a question which I was hoping a lot of you can answer,

What are some aspects of Our "cherished " Earth that have been permanently damaged due to Human Activity and can never be recovered fixed or solved forever?

I am asking this because I am a member of Gen Z (2004) and I would like to be more knowledgeable about things, I already know about microplastics in our bodies and I already know about the countless animal species humans have made extinct.

Thank you for your time and have a great day.

20:47 UTC


Nestlé Warns of Looming Chocolate Crunch as Cocoa Costs Skyrocket

Source: https://thedeepdive.ca/nestle-warns-of-looming-chocolate-crunch-as-cocoa-costs-skyrocket/

It might be a good time to hoard candy bars, as Nestlé (SWX: NESN) warns of an impending “cocoaflation.”

The cocoa market is experiencing unprecedented turmoil, with futures prices more than doubling this year due to a significant global shortage. This surge in cocoa prices is expected to have a ripple effect on the chocolate industry and consumer behavior, according to a Bloomberg report that cited Mark Davies, managing director at Nestlé Confectionery UK & Ireland.


Via Bloomberg

The price spike, which saw cocoa futures reach a record high of over $11,000 per ton in New York this April, is primarily attributed to poor harvests in West Africa. While consumers have been somewhat insulated from these increases due to manufacturers’ advance purchasing and hedging strategies, Davies warns that price hikes are inevitable as companies begin to absorb the higher costs.

Industry experts anticipate a decline in chocolate consumption as prices increase. The International Cocoa Organization has revised its forecast for the global cocoa shortfall, noting that it will be larger than initially predicted. However, some analysts suggest that the price rally may have already reached its peak.

20:33 UTC


🔍 Climate Change Reality Check-List 🌿🌿

1.     The Ice Age That Never Was: Contrary to conspiracy claims, most 1970s climate research predicted warming due to CO2 emissions. A review of studies from 1965-1979 found that 44 predicted warming vs 7 predicted cooling, and 20 were neutral​. Ironically, the scientists who noted cooling in the stratosphere predicted the cooling however this was due to more heat being trapped in lower atmosphere. (Scienceline)​​ (New Scientist)​​ (Science News)​

2.     Follow the Money—Fossil Fuels Edition: Conspiracy theorists would say scientists are getting paid to create junk science so green energy can take over. Isn’t it more plausible that the fossil fuel industry, worth approximately $5 trillion annually, has a vested interest in maintaining the status quo? Fossil Fuel companies spend $125 million per year lobbying the government to keep things as they are. (OpenSecrets)​

3.     The Glaciers Melting Myth: Al Gore said we would be under water by now! In 2007, the IPCC incorrectly suggested Himalayan glaciers could melt by 2035, based on non-peer-reviewed sources. This mistake was acknowledged as a failure in procedure by IPCC Chairman Rajendra Pachauri​ (Voice of America). Despite skeptic misuse, this was an isolated error in a vast body of evidence on climate change. While glaciers are melting and raising sea levels, scientists never claimed we'd be submerged by now​ (Science News)​​ (Voice of America)​.

4.     The Climate Has Always Changed: While Earth's climate has changed over millions of years, the current rate of change is unprecedented. After the last ice age, Earth warmed by about 4-7°C over 5,000 years. Today, we're seeing similar temperature increases projected in just 100 years—nearly 10 times faster​ (Climate Change - NASA Science)​. For further comparison, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) around 56 million years ago saw temperatures rise by 5-8°C over 20,000 years, far slower than today's rapid warming driven by human activities​ (Climate Change - NASA Science)​.

5.     Holy Cow—The Real Beef with Meat Production: Critics often mock concerns over cow farts, but the environmental impact of meat production goes far beyond methane emissions. Cows produce methane, a greenhouse gas 25 times more potent than CO2, and are responsible for 31.5% of U.S. methane emissions, making them the top source of methane in the country. Producing a pound of beef requires about 1,800 gallons of water compared to just 216 gallons for a pound of soybeans. Additionally, 80% of agricultural land is used for livestock and feed, providing less than 20% of the world’s calories. Beef production also consumes vast amounts of corn and feed, depleting soil and necessitating heavy use of pesticides and fertilizers. In contrast, plant-based proteins are much more resource-efficient and generate lower greenhouse gas emissions, making them a more sustainable choice​ (Let's Talk Science)​​ (Our World in Data)​​ (VerifyThis)​.

6.     Green Energy Gripes: Critics argue green energy isn't environmentally friendly, but EVERY energy source has some impact on the environment, but which is better? For instance, wind and solar energy emit just 0.02 to 0.04 pounds of CO2 per kWh compared to coal's 2.2 pounds per kWh. Renewable energy costs have plummeted, with solar electricity costs falling by 89% and wind by 70% from 2010 to 2020. Fossil fuels not only drive climate change but also cause significant environmental damage through oil spills, habitat destruction from drilling, and air and water pollution. Additionally, the fossil fuel industry is responsible for oil spills, habitat destruction from drilling, and significant air and water pollution. While green energy has some environmental impact, it is far less damaging than fossil fuels. (IEA)​​ (IEA)​​ (Our World in Data)​​ (World Economic Forum)​.

7.     Inflation Now? Just The Tip of The Iceberg: Climate change is driving significant cost increases for consumers. Food prices are projected to rise by up to 30% due to disruptions in crop production and supply chains caused by extreme weather events​ (Phys.org)​​ (World Economic Forum)​. Additionally, insurance premiums are soaring as the frequency and severity of climate-related disasters increase. Home insurance rates are expected to rise by 6% in 2024, with some high-risk areas like Louisiana seeing increases as high as 23%​ (WUSF )​​ (Insurify)​. These rising costs further strain household budgets already impacted by inflation and economic pressures, underscoring the urgent need for climate action.

8.     Monopoly: Climate Edition—The Path to a Bankrupted Nation: Imagine playing a game of Monopoly where unexpected disasters wipe out your assets, and the bank keeps demanding more money. This mirrors our reality: The U.S. federal budget for 2023 was $6.3 trillion, with a $1.7 trillion deficit​ (Federal Budget in Pictures)​. Climate change could cost the global economy $178 trillion by 2070​ (Deloitte United States)​. With rising expenses for disaster recovery and entitlement programs, like Social Security, consuming 50% of the budget, the escalating costs threaten to bankrupt the nation unless urgent climate action is taken.

9.     The Mass Extinction Event You Don’t Know About: We're in the midst of a sixth mass extinction, yet few are aware of its severity. Driven by rapid climate change and human activities, current extinction rates are 100 to 1,000 times higher than natural rates. This rapid loss of species disrupts ecosystems and threatens the global food chain. As biodiversity collapses, essential services like pollination, soil fertility, and pest control are jeopardized, potentially leading to a breakdown in food production and impacting human food security. This crisis underscores the urgent need for climate action.​ (Climate Change - NASA Science)​

10.  H2-Woe—We're Running Out of Water: Water scarcity is escalating due to both human activities and climate change. The fossil fuel industry consumes vast amounts of water, with natural gas plants using about 2,803 gallons per MWh, compared to just 20 gallons per MWh for solar panels​ (Energy Solution Providers)​. Mining, fracking, and manufacturing microchips and data centers also strain water resources. Climate change exacerbates the problem by causing severe droughts in some regions and intense flooding in others, disrupting water availability and even affecting the Earth's gravitational balance​ (Energy Solution Providers)​​ (Carbon Brief)​. This issue is particularly acute in arid areas like Arizona, where increasing populations and dwindling water supplies create a precarious situation. Addressing this crisis requires urgent action to improve water efficiency and management practices.

17:30 UTC


My friend and I wrote a dark-humor song/poem about microplastics. Feel free to add your own verse…

Microplastics in my brain. 🧠 Microplastics in the rain. 🌧️ Microplastics, it’s insane! 🥴

Microplastics in the ground. 🏞️ Microplastics by the pound. ⚖️ Microplastics, all around! 🫨

Microplastics in your blood.🩸 Microplastics in the mud. 🤎 Microplastics, it's a flood! 🌊

Microplastics in my pie. 🥧 Microplastics in the sky.🌅 Microplastics, why why why?! ⁉️

Microplastics in the air. 💨 Microplastics, hard to bear. 😡 Microplastics, it’s not fair! 🧑‍⚖️

Microplastics kill your kid. 🧒 Microplastics in their coffin lid. ⚰️ Microplastics, is that all humans did??! 🤷🏼‍♂️

Microplastics in your song. 🎶 Microplastics in that bong. 🔥 It was microplastics all along!!! 🧑‍🚀🔫🧑‍🚀

17:44 UTC


There is realistically no way to get the rich to slow their spending, right?

I don't see anything but acceleration in how the rich are spending. I can look at data or look around me at many friends. It is frenetic and the itch to consume seems to become stronger as that is how we self actualize and define who we are in western economies. Extreme weather events, although they are becoming more frequent, become normalized and if you are in America and have money you are usually protected from them. The stock market seems unaware of collapse as algorithms keep sending the market up to new all time highs as people assume the AI boom will never end. We have multiple wars going on and they have become old boring news to most people. Truly what would it take to curtail this type of rapid escalation in spending?

14:10 UTC


A thought exercise about if we never used aerosols.

We all well-know at this point that aerosols have slown down over all global warming by masking it for a period of time. I just had an idea of a sort of thought exercise. What do you all think in how much further along we'd be in climate change and global warming if we never used them? Feel free to be as detailed as you'rd like. For my own view, I've only come up so far with thinking that I bet we would have had ice free Artic sumemrs by 2015, since I feel ike shaving off 20-years from 2035 makes sense to me currently.

16:44 UTC

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