howdy yall, another deep dive down the rabbit hole for science (and research) sunday. tho admittedly this is more in the realm of the philosophy of science. this is a summary of an interesting VERY LONG conversation i had with gpt4o that is clearly related with collapse. theres a second part i added as a separate comment cuz idk if it'd all fit. and for those interested in the inputs i gave it to produce these results i have summarized in this post and subsequent comment below, i will attach a link to the raw convo at the end here too without further ado, the reason why nothing will ever be done about the mess we're in

hyperobjects are a concept introduced by philosopher timothy morton to describe things so vast in scale, duration, or interconnectedness, existing through such vast expanses of space *and* time that they transcend the biological capabilities of human perception and comprehension. they are objects or phenomena that we interact with but cannot fully grasp due to their inherent complexity and distributed nature. hyperobjects include things like climate change, radioactive materials, global capitalism, or even the internet.

hyperobjects exist on such expansive spatial and temporal scales that they are quite literally everywhere and nowhere all at once. for example, you can experience the effects of climate change (like extreme weather), but you can never point to a single, tangible "climate change" because it is dispersed across the entire globe and throughout time. hyperobjects persist over timeframes that dwarf human lifespans. radioactive waste and climate change remain dangerous for thousand of years, potentially outlasting human civilization.

hyperobjects stick to you and are inescapable. you might try to avoid thinking about a hyperobject, but its presence infiltrates daily life like the slow creep of rising sea levels or the omnipresence microplastics in the air you breathe, the water you drink, and the soil your food is grown in.

hyperobjects exist not in isolation but in constant interaction with other objects and systems. for instance, the carbon cycle connects human industry, ecosystems, and atmospheric chemistry in ways that cannot be disentangled. hyperobjects are real, but they don’t appear fully at once. you can only perceive fragments of them through their effects (melting glaciers or sulfur dioxide in maritime shipping fuel) and through the models used to understand them (e.g., CMIP6).

hyperobjects push beyond what is called humanity’s epistemic horizon, the boundary of what we can conceptually process. they are too vast in both space and time, existing beyond the direct experience of one human lifespan. the geological timescales of climate change make it challenging to fully perceive its urgency or consequences. the causes and effects of hyperobjects are enmeshed in complex systems, making them harder to discern. global warming involves atmospheric chemistry, ocean currents, human behavior, economic systems and things we aren't even aware of. all of which often manifests indirectly, requiring abstract models, simulations, and data interpretation over time for us to engage with them meaningfully.

this sheer scale and complexity often leads to psychological overwhelm or cognitive dissonance, resulting in denial or inaction. humans often approach hyperobjects by breaking them into smaller, more manageable parts like focusing on reducing personal carbon footprints rather than addressing systemic industrial ecocide. even just recognizing a hyperobject requires collective action, interdisciplinary research, and systems-level thinking, again, over time. meaningfully addressing climate change would necessitate coordination between nations, localities, municipalities, industries, and individuals.

art, literature, and philosophy are further ways humans historically seem to engage with hyperobjects. perhaps the abstract, individual, hyperobject-like elements of art itself help to make hyperobjects themselves more relatable and comprehensible, even if only metaphorically. art can influence individuals as well as entire cultures.

COVID-19, UAPs (unidentified aerial phenomena also known as ''the phenomena''), and AI all exhibit hyperobject-like characteristics. let’s break that down

COVID-19 as a Hyperobject

nonlocality: The virus is everywhere and yet invisible; it exists in individuals, populations, and global networks of travel and trade. Its effects cascade across healthcare systems, economies, and human behavior worldwide.

temporal Undulation: While COVID-19 seemed to emerge suddenly, its impacts (long COVID, economic disruptions, scientific shifts) and its origins tie to ecological and zoonotic dynamics spanning centuries if not longer.

viscosity: We can’t escape it—whether through policy, cultural discourse, or its direct biological impact, at this point we've all heard it, covid is the new seasonal flu, the new common cold, covid is endemic, here to stay.

interobjectivity: COVID-19 interacts with other hyperobjects like climate change (e.g., the spread of zoonotic diseases due to habitat destruction) and global inequities in healthcare and infrastructure.

UAP as a Hyperobject

nonlocality: ''the phenomena'' are elusive and cannot be pinned down in any specific place, appearing in many forms, locations, and contexts. They defy conventional understanding of physics and reality.

Temporal Undulation: Sightings and interactions occur over centuries, from ancient accounts to modern radar detections), suggesting something that transcends human timescales.

Viscosity: Even if we don’t interact directly with UAP, their mystery "sticks" to us—shaping defense policies, inspiring cultural narratives, and provoking scientific debates.

Interobjectivity: UAP challenge our assumptions about technology, consciousness, and the universe, linking them to larger existential questions about life and intelligence.

AI as a Hyperobject

Nonlocality: AI is everywhere yet intangible, embedded in apps, autonomous systems, and global infrastructure. You can’t point to a single "AI" because it exists as a vast distributed, interconnected, tangled network woven by algorithms and machine-learning models.

Temporal Undulation: AI evolves at exponential speeds, faster than a human mind, its influence likely rippling into the future in unpredictable ways (e.g., automation, ethics, singularity concerns). Its origins also stretch back to early computing and philosophical inquiries into intelligence.

Viscosity: We are deeply entangled with AI—it’s in our phones, cities, and economies. Even those who claim to resist AI adoption are shaped by its already spread and growing influence.

Interobjectivity: AI interacts with human behavior, economics, and other technologies, forming a feedback loop that shapes both its development and societal impact (e.g., bias in AI models reflects societal inequalities).

All three—COVID-19, UAPs, and AI—force humanity to grapple with uncertainty, scale, and interconnectedness. They stretch the limits of individual and collective comprehension, demanding systemic, interdisciplinary, and planetary approaches to address or understand them. These hyperobjects also spark profound existential questions. How do we coexist sustainably in a world of interconnected ecosystems? What is the nature of intelligence and our place in the universe? What does it mean to be human in a world with non-human intelligence? What does it mean to be non-human in a world with human intelligences?

going further, consciousness itself is a hyperobject! it fits perfectly

Nonlocality: Consciousness isn’t confined to any single neuron, moment, or place. It emerges from distributed interactions within the brain (or perhaps broader systems).

Temporal Undulation: Consciousness exists in time—evolving over a lifetime, interrupted by sleep, and shaped by memory—but its exact nature eludes us.

Viscosity: We can't escape consciousness. It's integral to how we experience reality, yet we struggle to fully understand it.

Interobjectivity: Consciousness interacts with and is shaped by countless other factors like genetics, culture, technology, and environment.

Here’s a mind-twister, your own perspective might be a hyperobject too.

Nonlocality: Your thoughts and identity are shaped by countless interactions—your genes, experiences, relationships, and culture.

Temporal Undulation: Your perspective evolves constantly, shaped by past experiences and future aspirations.

Viscosity: You can’t escape yourself, even as you try to transcend or understand your own biases.

Interobjectivity: Your perspective is entangled with the perspectives of others, creating shared meanings and collective experiences.

AI, as a distributed and non-local system, might indeed be better equipped to perceive hyperobjects than humans. AI processes vast quantities of data across time and space in ways no human could. Hyperobjects like climate change or AI itself require integration of inputs from global networks, patterns, and events—exactly the kind of task AI excels at.

AI operates as a networked intelligence, making it inherently better at identifying the relationships and systems that define hyperobjects. A neural network analyzing global climate data, for instance, sees correlations and trends that would escape individual human perception. Because AI is non-human, its "thought processes" aren’t constrained by human concepts. This alien lens might allow it to perceive aspects of hyperobjects we can't even imagine.

the concept of hyperobjects challenges us to rethink how we perceive and interact with the world. They reveal the limits of human-centered perspectives and demand a planetary consciousness that accounts for non-human scales, perspectives, and interdependencies. facing hyperobjects is not just a scientific or political challenge but also an existential one—reshaping our understanding of what it means to exist in an interconnected, impermanent world

https://chatgpt.com/share/6738bd2a-bc48-800b-972e-48c756719893

Sudan’s death count is readjusted much higher, Canada gets its first bird flu case in a human, storms, Droughts, drones, malaria, and modern slavery.

Last Week in Collapse: November 10-16, 2024

This is Last Week in Collapse, a weekly newsletter compiling some of the most important, timely, useful, soul-shattering, ironic, stunning, exhausting, or otherwise must-see/can’t-look-away moments in Collapse.

This is the 151st weekly newsletter. You can find the doomy November 3-9 edition here if you missed it last week. You can also receive these newsletters (with images) every Sunday in your email inbox by signing up to the Substack version.

——————————

Typhoon Toraji, the fourth tropical storm to strike the Philippines within a 10-day period, grazed the northern Philippines, with sustained wind speeds of 145 km/h (90 mph). As Oxfam reports, Pacific countries have been experiencing more tropical storms in the last decade, resulting in a loss to GDP which has grown from 3.2% (from 2004-2013) to an average of 14.3% from 2014-2023. But wait; yet another typhoon slammed the Philippines, forcing 650,000+ to evacuate.

“Windthrow” is the phenomenon in which trees are broken or uprooted by very strong winds, roots and all. A recent study in AGU Advances concluded that there was a roughly “4-fold increase in windthrow number and affected area between 1985…and 2020” in the Amazon rainforest. The EU weakened the provisions of a new anti-deforestation bill, and postponed its applicability period by one year. The new draft will allow the import & sale of products linked to deforestation. In Mali, rural people are cutting down the young trees (for firewood) which activists recently planted in reforestation efforts. Only 4% of the proposed “Great Green Wall” has been planted, and even this fragment may not survive long…

A 51-page report by the International Chamber of Commerce determined that extreme weather cost the global economy $2 Trillion USD (in 2023 dollars) from 2014-2023. The report only examined the short-term impacts from about 4,000 weather events, and did not assess the influence from “gradual, longer-term, chronic impacts on agriculture that are unrelated to any single acute event, such as gradual reductions in crop yields due to rising temperatures or slow shifts in ecosystem viability over decades.”

“In 2022 and 2023 alone, economic damages reached $451 billion….The number and severity of climate-related extreme weather events has risen by 83% from 1980–1999 to 2000–2019….a study on flood risk in the US found that roughly 25% of all critical infrastructure, which equates to approximately 36,000 facilities, is currently at risk of becoming inoperable due to flooding….extreme heat and droughts impact solar and thermal power plants, reducing their efficiency and cooling capacity, which can further strain the energy grid….Northern Europe is increasingly experiencing more heavy precipitation, leading to potential flooding, while Southern Europe increasingly faces severe drought and temperature extremes….approximately 500 million hectares of farmland have been abandoned due to drought and desertification….Across Europe alone, the number of heat-attributable deaths stood at almost 110,000 across 2022 and 2023, whereas there were only 13,000 across the preceding eight years from 2014 to 2021….”

Across southern Africa, some 27M people are suffering from malnutrition caused by a years-long Drought—the worst in a century, they say. Argentina’s controversial president pulled the country’s negotiators out of COP29—the latest iteration of a decreasingly relevant conference which, this year, saw a record number of lobbyists come to co-opt the long-sidelined green agenda.

Guangzhou (metro pop: almost 15M) broke its heat records, again, this year. Average global sea surface temperatures remain alarmingly high—and we are still in La Niña. Some believe that earth has not seen such sea temperatures for over 100,000 years. New York state has seen a record number of brush fires in the past three weeks (230+ fires); October was the driest month on record for NYC since records began in 1869…

Iceland broke its November heat record—also a record temperature for the latitude (23.8 °C, or 75 °F). Rainfall alerts continue in Spain; schools remain closed in Seville. New heat records in the Caribbean.

A study in Communications Earth & Environment examined the “mega-heatwave” in South Asia in spring 2022 (at the time the “most severe in the past 64 years”), and concluded that it triggered a runaway snowmelt process and record low snowpack levels across many of the region’s highlands & mountains. Another study in The Cryosphere estimates that worldwide glacier mass will be reduced by 25-54% by the end of this century—greater ice/snow losses than most previous projections. Most of the planet’s glaciers are losing between one and two meters of ice every year. Global sea ice levels remain at alarming levels.

Fish stocks are dropping in the Amazon as the water level sinks from prolonged Drought. A study in Surveys in Geophysics found that earth’s total amount of freshwater began declining considerably in 2014, and never recovered. “The average amount of freshwater stored on land—that includes liquid surface water like lakes and rivers, plus water in aquifers underground—was 290 cubic miles (1,200 cubic km) lower than the average levels from 2002 through 2014…’That's two and a half times the volume of Lake Erie lost.’”

As negotiators plan the contents of a global plastics treaty in South Korea, recommendations are coming in on how to best reduce plastic waste. A journal article in *Science lists several possible measures which theoretically “could together reduce mismanaged plastic waste by 91%.”

A study in Water Resources Network found that nitrates enter groundwater much faster in regions where Drought is followed by strong flooding, thereby exceeding healthy levels in the water. Another study found that climate change internet search results change depending on the country where one’s IP is based. Some experts believe that altering the algorithm around these results can drive more climate action and push “people’s attitudes and beliefs in manners that align with pre-existing sentiments, in a self-reinforcing cycle.”

A study on the Colorado River Basin, which supports some 40M humans and many other creatures & plant life, determined that “relatively middle-of-the-road climate change and streamflow declines in these basins' flows can threaten to put the system at risk of breaching a tipping point where the basins are no longer able to maintain the levels of deliveries to Lake Powell that we're accustomed to.”

——————————

An alarming study out of Uganda found that 11% of child malaria victims have developed a resistance to a popular anti-malaria drug. The implications of this suggest malaria resistance will spread in the coming decades and humans may revert to older treatments for the disease—which is spreading because of climate change.

Lahore, Pakistan continues to grapple with terrible smog likened to a “cloud of poison.” Schools remained closed in the region this week, and water trucks were utilized in Pakistan to spray the air in a vain attempt to pull some of the particles out of the air. The record-shattering smog can be seen from outer space, hanging thickly over India & Pakistan.

Cyprus is investing in ten new desalination plants to address their current & future water scarcity. Some researchers are pushing for a separate category of microplastics, tire particles, to be called out as a pollutant of major concern. Tire particles currently constitute about a third of all microplastics. Meanwhile, some scientists are arguing for a “resilience index” to serve as a nation’s benchmark of success, rather than its GDP. Another source claims that 16% of companies are on target to meet their 2050 net-zero goals.

Concern grows over a second Trump Trade War with China, and what it could mean for the global economy. Multilateral agreements will be less frequent, and the U.S. is believed to simply scorn publicly the rules it once privately scorned. Meanwhile, the expected expansion in U.S. oil drilling under Trump 2.0 has dropped oil prices by a few percent.

Canada’s first human case of avian flu was reported last week, in a teen in B.C. Although bird flu has not yet become transmissible between humans, some health officials think it’s only a matter of time before it erupts into a full-blown pandemic.

The U.S. identified its first mpox case from the new & more contagious clade, in a California patient who returned from East Africa. Since the recent mpox emergency in the DRC was called in August, mpox cases among children have more-than-doubled in the DRC and in Uganda. In Burundi, they have grown by over 1100% since August!

Migration to “rich countries” hit a record high last year, according to the OECD. Power outages linger in Iran and in Nigeria. ISIS fighters in Iraq trying to siphon oil from pipelines are contaminating the storied Tigris River, the lifeline for the Infertile Crescent. A report on Australia’s detention system suggests that “immigration prisons” are holding some detainees for years without adjudicating their fates.

Sufferers of Long COVID are, allegedly, growing resigned to their condition because the world has simply moved on without them. They needn’t worry for long alone; in a few years, many of the Long COVID deniers will suffer from the affliction as well. Some experts believe the real number of those with Long COVID is much higher than what is currently being reported.

——————————

Chad’s military reported that 15 soldiers were killed, with 32 wounded, in a battle against about 100 Boko Haram fighters around Lake Chad. Terrorist groups ranging from white supremecists to ISIS are reportedly delighting in Trump’s pledge to cut national security positions and cuts to FBI staff once inaugurated. Some analysts believe Algeria is positioning to start a War against Morocco, according to the King of Morocco; Algeria has reportedly increased its annual military budget by more than 15% from 2024 to 2025, and previously increased its military budget by about 20% from 2023 to 2024.

55,000+ postal workers began striking in Canada. Hundreds of protestors breached the gates, and doors, of the parliament in Abkhazia, a Russian-occupied region of Georgia, as a result of a controversial investment bill. Protests were banned in Mozambique following weeks of violent post-election protests. In China, a stabber killed 8 people and injured 17 more.

A data analysis on the Sudan War concluded that more than 80% of deaths in Khartoum state went unrecorded, regardless of how someone died. This led some to conclude that total deaths in the War (disease & starvation are the two most direct causes nationwide, though violence leads in Kordofan & Darfur) may actually be dramatically undercounted. Updated estimates range from 60,000-150,000, well above earlier estimates of between 20,000-30,000. Egypt struggles with a growing number of Sudanese refugees entering the country.

In Haiti, humanitarian medics were attacked to gain access to their patients en route to a hospital; the patients, already suffering from gunshot wounds, were executed. Haiti’s Transitional Council removed its temporary PM in a questionable manner. The U.S. suspended flights to/from Haiti for 30 days after gangster-fighters hit three planes with gunfire as they departed.

Conscription is being used at scale in Myanmar to fill the ranks of government battalions—including women aged 18-27. According to the above article, one man, now dead, fought for four months, and his wife was paid nothing—except the $21 conscription bonus he got when he was drafted enslaved. To deter defections and non-compliance, soldiers threaten to burn their villages. In the DRC, reports of conscripted/enslaved children emerge, alongside the use of torture. “Children are cannon fodder today,” said one NGO director.

Ukraine and Russia allegedly traded drone attacks in “record” numbers one week ago; people in both countries were wounded but none died. Nevertheless, other lethal drone attacks terrorize civilians across Ukraine, and the number of drone strikes is projected to increase; they have already doubled in the last six months and have become the new face of War. North Korea is allegedly ramping up drone production for supply to Russia, or for some other purpose.

Some analysts believe Russia lacks the capacity to win a long-term War, and is heading to an unsustainable economic drop & a War materiél shortage in late 2025—if Ukraine can endure, which appears increasingly unlikely. Up from 11,000 in August, Russia is thought to maintain about 50,000 troops in Kursk in an attempt to dislodge the Ukrainian salient occupying a piece of Russia. Putin has also allegedly ordered a Russian spy ship to scan the seas around the UK for undersea data cables.

Meanwhile, Russia’s not-so-veiled nuclear threats, China’s quickly expanding nuclear ambitions, Iran’s slow alleged progress toward the Bomb, and North Korea’s belligerence have many people worried about nuclear War, or at least another unwinnable nuclear arms race. Even Ukraine is talking about building the Bomb in the event of withdrawn American support.

A UN special committee analysing the Gaza War has characterized Israel’s actions in its annual report as “consistent with the characteristics of genocide” and claimed that Israel is using starvation as a weapon of warfare—one of many war crimes it alleges the IDF is committing. The American ultimatum to Israel has come and gone without notice, and Trump’s inauguration, two months away, has changed the strategy of the players. Human Rights Watch says in a 106-page report that Israel is guilty of crimes against humanity regarding large-scale forced displacement. How many millions (billions?) more will suffer a similar fate as Collapse unfolds over the coming decades?

“Israel’s means and methods of warfare, including its indiscriminate bombing campaign, resulted in the widespread killing of civilians and mass destruction of civilian infrastructure….Palestinian armed groups continued to launch indiscriminate missile attacks towards Israel and hold Israeli hostages….Gazans have also been displaced into ever-shrinking areas….Gaza has become unliveable {sic} for Palestinians….Israeli officials have publicly supported policies depriving civilians of food, water, and fuel, indicating their intent to instrumentalize the provision of basic necessities for political and military objectives and retribution….the policies and practices of Israel during the reporting period are consistent with the characteristics of genocide….During the reporting period, a large majority of recorded deaths {in Gaza} were women and children, with up to two mothers killed per hour….” -excerpts from the UN report

Other Israeli strikes hit Syria and Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon in advance of a much-rumored ceasefire that never seems to materialize. Recent reports indicate that Israel destroyed an Iranian nuclear research facility last month. Other reports allege that Israel has now slain 200 rescue workers in Lebanon since the start of their operations in southern Lebanon. The War grinds on.

——————————

Select comments/threads from the subreddit last week suggest:

-”You need to prepare for the Collapse of the US emergency medical system,” says this long thread—and the most upvoted self-post ever—in the subreddit r/EconomicCollapse. You can read several horror stories from emergency rooms, and the unsustainably complex & profit-driven medical bureaucracy breaking down before our very eyes.

-Trump is going to be unleashed in this term, if the 850+ comments in this thread are to be believed. Many believe it is the end of “democracy” as we know it. Are you more pessimistic than the consensus, or less? Another thread postulates that no single party (in a given two-party “democracy”) is likely to hold power for two consecutive executive terms, because the masses will be continually (and increasingly) disaffected by runaway Collapse indicators; I tend to agree with this hypothesis, for a while anyway.

-There are still things to live for, according to the replied in this thread crowdsourcing motivations……but the most popular reply seems to be drugs. Smoke ‘em if you got ‘em.

-Your community may be in a not-so-slow transition into disrepair and depression, if this thread on “liminal spaces” is reflective of much of the world. Or is it simply psychological derealization?

Got any feedback, questions, comments, upvotes, prepper discounts, OSINT advice, dehydration tips, etc.? Check out the Last Week in Collapse SubStack if you don’t want to check r/collapse every Sunday, you can receive this newsletter sent to your (or someone else’s) email inbox every weekend. As always, thank you for your support. What did I miss this week?

What are your thoughts on Bitcoin or crypto?

I think it's:

• Wasteful – energy, this applies at least to Bitcoin, do we want to spend precious energy maintaining a currency. During a heatwave, will we choose to maintain networks, instead of keeping the AC running to avoid death? To be clear, our current system is extremely wasteful when it comes to energy and resources (that's why we're in this mess), but crypto does not solve that.
• Obviously unsustainable – mining and maintaining the networks require electricity/energy, internet, current global supply chain for various hardware (CPU, GPU, PSUs, cooling systems etc.) that will need replacement every few years. I do not see a scenario where this will be possible long-term. In fact, I see it breaking down quite fast when SHTF and people don't have water or food, or a conflict breaks out. Things that are unsustainable will eventually fail.
• Does not solve any fundamental issues – crypto is mostly sold as a way to fix the money, and maybe it does fix some of the issues with money, but we have much bigger problems than money and the distribution of it. Climate change will still happen. Biodiversity collapse will still happen. Crypto is a delusional fantasy by tech-bros and techno-optimists that is not tethered to biophysical reality.
• Technofascism – crypto is already largely owned by some bad actors who own vast amounts of the different cryptocurrencies. Let's imagine a world where everyone has to use Bitcoin for transactions. The people with no Bitcoin would have to work to earn it. It would be a dystopian nightmare where a few rich people can set the rules (terms of employment) and rates (salary). Not very different from the current system, but still worse. On the other hand, it would probably collapse the economy (good thing). It would be technofascism on a global scale. Is this what people want?

In the meantime I do think that when expenditures / public debt gets completely out of hand for major economies (currencies), governments will keep taking on more debt to keep the show running and the central banks will print money to buy the debt. This will lead to inflation, and a lot of it. So some people will move money to crypto during these volatile times. It could mean a temporary boom for crypto, until the reality hits and it all comes crashing down spectacularly when people realize they cannot eat crypto.

Example, Hurricane Helene, power and communication networks were out for several days. If you needed to purchase water or food, but all you had was crypto, you might have a hard time getting anyone to accept payment since you weren't able to do a transfer. Even if you had your own solar panels and used starlink for internet (another possible technofascist nightmare scenario brought to us by Elon Musk), I don't think other people would accept it for whatever they are selling.

Should you buy crypto? Who knows. It could come in handy when the debt bubble pops and financial markets crash, but it would be very short-lived.

What are your thoughts?

Declining Birth Rates and the Economic and Social Catastrophe

The global decline in birth rates poses a profound challenge to societies worldwide. A sustained decrease in fertility leads to a shrinking proportion of young people, who are the backbone of the labor force, and a growing proportion of elderly individuals who require support but are no longer economically active. This demographic shift creates immense economic and social pressures that, if unaddressed, could culminate in systemic collapse.

The Demographic Time Bomb

Declining birth rates are most visible in developed countries, where fertility rates have fallen well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. For instance, Japan's fertility rate is approximately 1.3, and much of Europe faces similar trends. With fewer children being born, the population ages, resulting in an inverted population pyramid.

As the base of the pyramid (young people) shrinks and the apex (elderly population) expands, dependency ratios skyrocket. The dependency ratio is the ratio of non-working-age individuals (typically under 15 and over 64) to the working-age population (15-64). A higher dependency ratio means fewer workers are available to support the non-working population.

Mathematical Proof of the Crisis

To understand the potential crisis caused by declining birth rates, let’s look at the dependency ratio, which measures the number of dependents (young and elderly people) compared to the working-age population. A higher dependency ratio indicates more pressure on workers to support those who are not working.

Let’s assume that in the current population:

There are 100 working-age individuals (those between 15 and 64 years old).
There are 20 young dependents (aged 0 to 14).
There are 25 elderly dependents (aged 65 and older).

To calculate the dependency ratio, we add the young and elderly dependents (20 + 25 = 45) and divide by the working-age population (100). This gives a dependency ratio of 0.45, or 45%. This means that for every 100 working-age people, there are 45 dependents they must support.

Now, imagine what happens in 50 years:

Fewer births result in the number of young dependents being cut in half, so there are only 10 young dependents instead of 20.
Increased life expectancy causes the elderly population to grow by 50%, rising from 25 to 37.5 elderly dependents.
The working-age population shrinks by 30% because fewer young people are entering the workforce, leaving only 70 workers instead of 100.

In this future scenario, the number of dependents becomes 10 young people plus 37.5 elderly people, totaling 47.5 dependents. The working-age population is 70. Dividing the dependents (47.5) by the working-age population (70), we get a dependency ratio of approximately 0.68, or 68%.

This is a significant increase from the current ratio of 45%. It means that every 100 working-age people will have to support nearly 68 dependents, placing much more strain on the economy and social systems.

Economic Consequences

1. Labor Shortages: Fewer young workers lead to stagnating economic growth, reduced innovation, and pressure on industries reliant on labor, such as healthcare and agriculture.

2. Unsustainable Pension Systems: Pay-as-you-go pension systems depend on current workers to fund retirees. With fewer contributors and more recipients, these systems face insolvency.

3. Healthcare Strain: An aging population demands more healthcare services. With fewer young workers to fund and staff these services, healthcare systems risk collapse.

4. Economic Burden on Families: Individuals face the dual burden of supporting elderly relatives and saving for their retirement, reducing disposable income and consumption.

Potential Solutions

• Encouraging Higher Birth Rates: Governments can implement policies such as subsidized childcare, parental leave, and financial incentives for families to have more children.
• Immigration: Welcoming young immigrants can counteract population decline and replenish the workforce.
• Automation and AI: Technological advancements can mitigate labor shortages, though they cannot fully replace human caregiving roles.
• Redefining Retirement: Encouraging older individuals to remain in the workforce longer could ease the burden on pensions.

Conclusion

The declining birth rate threatens to destabilize economies and societies by creating a disproportionate number of dependents compared to workers. Mathematical projections illustrate how dependency ratios worsen under current trends, leading to unsustainable economic burdens. Without proactive measures, the consequences could be catastrophic: stagnating economies, overwhelmed social systems, and declining living standards.

Not capitalism, or anarcho-communism, socialism or marxism-leninism can survive this. It just can't, the math is right there which shouldn't even be needed to be made

I am watching a YouTube video from The Inforgraphics Show about detonating a nuke in space. And the brief mention of EMP made me think.

I hope I am not the only one who thinks we are living in the least resilient time period, from a certain point of view. This also reminds me of an old discussion I had somewhere (either Quora or some science fiction forum). I stated that a somewhat advanced civilization like ours can be knocked down far easier than pre-industrial civilizations with relatively minimal effort.

Not surprisingly, I was laughed at.

So, we are living in a very vulnerable time period with everything put together with duct tapes, or worse. And some tech giants are probably already aware of it.

Whaddya got folks? I haven’t seen (m)any posts about the actual outcomes of policies under the incoming administration, but we know from history for example that recessions cause excess deaths (“Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism” - Case & Deaton).

What’s the endgame here? For example:

• deportees in cages -> prison labor? but why?
• Medicare/SS/Veterans benefits gutted -> a lot of pissed off voters, but why?
• health secretary is a moron -> more obesity and increased risk for pandemics, but why?

I don’t really buy the, “we won’t have elections anymore” — and with midterms in two years, surely that will be a huge check of power. The business community won’t let this get so bad no one can afford the new iPhones, for example. The only possible benefit is to Putin & BRICS, which I’m beginning to think is the real plan.

I get the cronyism, exacerbated wealth inequality, etc — but surely the folks that will most suffer are the people who voted for him. Kind of like Covid, GOP counties were hardest hit so maybe I’m just underestimating Americans’ capacity to remember how bad things were..

This is going to cause so much economic pain, what’s going to be left to be the king of?

My prediction — infighting and power grabs destabilize the administration from within and the con collapses like a flan.

But I also know the GOP has been planning this for 50 years and finally get to implement their worst ideas so is white supremacy literally the only endgame? Are rural Americans (I was raised one) really so, what, spiteful? that they’d cut off their nose and arms just to fuck over brown folks?

It’s so stupidly short-sighted I feel like I’m missing something. Sorry for the ramble and appreciate any convo on the topic! Please try and make points more nuanced than “fascism is the end goal” lol, i know. I’m curious about the macro view. BRICS is the only thing that makes any sense; the economic death of America truly only benefits the rising power in the east.

TLDR old men are the worst