You tell these people what scientists have themselves predicted, and they call you an alarmist. You tell these people that the US military has openly been preparing for a Third World War and people like former secretary James Mattis openly stated America's new foreign strategy is one of Great Power Competition and confrontation with powers like Russia and China and that both these pronouncements have been publicly available information since 2018 and they call you a conspiracy theorist. You tell them the World Bank and IMF are predicting that this decade may end up being defined by an economic depression and they say you're just a pessimist. The masses will tell you not to believe your own lying eyes. They will tell you to ignore what our leaders openly predict and state or else you will sound like a "schizophrenic". "Never break the normalcy bias", they all but state; "If history has taught us anything, it's that change never occurs, and continuity is unbreakable".

How do you even get through to such people? Is it possible to get through to such people? People with their heads to the ground. With no interests beyond consuming the latest product? People wrenched out of time and history, with no knowledge of the past, and no foresight for the future? Can such people ever be broken through to? I don't think it's all people, many people I know can see the crisis, the homeless, the poor, many of my friends, much of my family. It's only those beautiful ones, the middle class bubble, the ones who scream loudest on social media and mainstream media, that can't see any of it at all. That call you mad for relaying what their own leaders have said they will do.

Maybe for people like this it will take the taps all running dry, or most of their favorite foods disappearing, or the nuclear explosions happening where they can see them? Or maybe once those things have happened, they will claim that water was always scarce, food has always been rationed, the city has always been ruined. There needed to be someone there to cheer for witch burnings, right? Such people have always existed.

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New & depressing climate research & data drops, a spate of record temperatures is broken, and bird flu alarms fall on deaf ears—as the world re-arms for a conflict that’s closer than some might believe.

Last Week in Collapse: April 7-13, 2024

This is Last Week in Collapse, a weekly newsletter compiling some of the most important, timely, useful, soul-crushing, ironic, stunning, exhausting, or otherwise must-see/can’t-look-away moments in Collapse.

This is the 120th newsletter, and it’s the longest yet. I feel obligated to put a general content warning on this edition, as the cumulative heap of Doom may be exhausting to some readers. You can find the March 31-April 6 edition here if you missed it last week. You can also receive these posts (with images) every Sunday in your email inbox with Substack.

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The European Court of Human Rights delivered a landmark ruling claiming that Switzerland was in breach of its obligations to protect its citizens from heat waves, and from failing to meet climate targets; also that Switzerland had not drafted a national carbon budget. You can read the ECHR press release here if you’re interested.

For the first time ever, NASA is releasing its data to the public collected from its Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, Ocean Ecosystem (PACE) satellite—empowering scientists, journalists, and the curious public to look at images & data regarding environmental pollution and air quality. The move expands access to earth sciences, particularly the study of aerosols. Access some of the breathtaking ocean/cloud images here if you’re interested—or even if you’re not.

Soil inorganic carbon (SIC), a mostly overlooked source of carbon when compared to organic soil carbon. However, a study in Science suggests that the quantity of SIC is huge, and desertification and runoff is sending SIC into rivers and oceans. The impact on the hydrosphere and atmospheric carbon concentrations has been underestimated, experts claim.

El Niño is being blamed for 40-year lows in Bogota reservoirs. Colombia’s capital (metro pop: 11.7M) will begin rotating days on which no water will be supplied to certain districts in an attempt to conserve the fast-depleting resource. El Niño, and invasive wild hogs, were also blamed for wildfires in the Philippines. Parts of New Zealand faced their driest summer on record. Canada is expecting a fierce wildfire season ahead, and hoping to train 1,000+ new forest firefighters this year. Nepalese wildfires killed 3 army firefighters.

Sweden experienced summer-like conditions for the earliest time in the year, after parts of southern Sweden saw five consecutive days of at least 10 °C (50 °F) temperatures. Across the Asia-Pacific, 240M children are at mortal risk from heat waves—according to a UNICEF report.

Glaciers in Central Asia are melting, and the on/off droughts & floods are worsening a water management crisis for the region. Afghanistan is building a canal to siphon 20-30% of the Amu Darya River which supplies Uzbekistan & Turkmenistan. Morocco’s second-largest reservoir is drying up—and taking down the agriculture industry (which accounts for 90% of the nation’s fresh water use) with it.

Despite the talk of wildfires & droughts, March 2024 was supposedly, on average, the wettest March on record, for the planet. Flooding in Hubei, China, killed at least 8. An environmentalist group is claiming that fast fashion brands are linked to deforestation in Brazil, replacing trees for cotton plantations connected to violence & corruption.

Record April heat in southern Mexico: 42 °C (108 °F). Phuket, Thailand, saw its hottest day & night, peaking at 39.4 °C (103 °F). Overseas France also saw several new records drop, including Mayotte’s hottest day ever, around 36 °C (97 °F). Heat waves are blasting Nigeria all around; Ghana, too. 100+ people died from a heat wave in Mali. A few local April records were broken around the Mediterranean basin, in Spain, Algeria, and Morocco. Some daily records in Bosnia, and Germany saw its earliest 30 °C day ever—ahead of the old record of 9 days. Scientists blame a group of factors for the recent heat, including manmade climate change, El Niño, aerosol demasking, effects from the Indian Ocean Dipole, and random weather events.

Although average sea surface temperatures tend to drop around March 22, near the first day of spring, temperatures have not yet dipped down—an anomaly that may linger long. We are heading into “uncharted territory”.

The Great Barrier Reef is reportedly experiencing its most serious coral bleaching ever, as new footage shows coral carnage 18 meters (59 feet) deep. Historic flooding is worsening in southern Russia and Kazakhstan, displacing thousands more; it is the region’s worst flooding in decades. A paywalled study’s summary claims that rainfall patterns are being disturbed so much that “in most regions, more than half of the total yearly rainfall occurs on the 12 wettest days of the year.”

A study in Communications Earth & Environment concluded that climate change will result in ocean coastlines experiencing 38 days of “concurrent heatwaves and extreme sea levels” (CHWESL): a one-two punch of swelling warm tides—usually found in tropical areas, usually in summer. However, “87.73% of coastlines experienced such concurrent extremes during 1979–2017,” posing a danger to many coastal communities and maritime megacities.

Experts are urging municipalities to plant more native plants to prevent landslides and stabilize vulnerable soil. A study found that earthworm populations in the UK are shrinking about 2% each year. A UN climate official said that humanity has two years to save the planet… A retrospective on a 2022 heat wave in Antarctica found that a large atmospheric river was the immediate cause.

The grounding line of a glacier is the outermost point(s) where a glacier sits on solid ground. A Nature Communications study concluded that changing ocean currents are bringing warm water deeper, eating away at the grounding lines of glaciers, exposing more glaciers to ocean currents, and accelerating the Collapse of many glaciers & ice shelves.

Arizona’s Glen Canyon Dam, on the Colorado River, has a problem: its water level is dropping, and its backup pipes, which conduct water through the Dam, are not functioning. This could pose a problem if water levels drop too low. You can read the full 14-page March memo from the Department of the Interior here if you’re interested. The President of the environmental nonprofit Utah Rivers Council claims “the archaic plumbing inside Utah’s Glen Canyon Dam is the most urgent water problem facing the 40 million people of the Colorado River Basin.”

Since 1990, homo sapiens have transformed 250,000 acres of estuaries into farmland and/or urban development—so says a study in Earth’s Dismal Future. 90% of these developments occurred in developing middle-income countries.

An analysis of 122 glaciers in the Kashmir Basin determined that, from 1980 until 2020, the total glacier mass had shrunk from about 26 km2 to 16 km2—roughly 39%. A Royal Society study forecasting the 500-year long view of forests concluded that boreal forests will decline the most from rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

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Bird flu reached New York City birds: a chicken, some geese, a hawk, and a falcon. Perhaps a number of pigeons are carriers as well. H5N1 has also been detected in North Carolina cattle, and, two weeks ago, a human in Texas. Experts worry that “pandemic fatigue” may leave us unwilling to monitor this virus closely enough to prevent an even worse health disaster. Spillover risk is low, the scientists say, but there is a risk that certain mammals may provide the genetic material needed for a catastrophic jump to a human-to-human transmission.

The price of gold has reached a record high—$2,364 per ounce. Vandals in Peru, reportedly illegal gold miners, took down two electrical towers using dynamite, towers which supplied energy to a government-approved gold extraction operation.

Iraq, where the annual deficit totals some $61B, would face a sudden economic Collapse if the price of oil sinks; if it continues to rise (a barrel is around $90 now), the American economy will be hard hit. In Ghana, energy debt is rising, and officials are preparing possible schedules for load-shedding. South Africa continues to suffer from daily load-shedding, and is trying to invest more in generators & renewable energy.

Air pollution is being linked to mental & neurological problems more and more. The Seine River, scheduled to host Olympic swimmers this summer, has unsafe levels of E. Coli and other bacteria, according to 13 of 14 tests conducted. In Denmark, where a massive deoxygenation event killed most life in a beloved fjord, 1,000+ people gathered to host a funeral ceremony for the fjord.

A major Chinese property developer, Shimao, already in default of some loans since 2022, is now in default over another $202M debt to a state-owned construction bank. Saudi Arabia’s hubristic city of the future, so-called The Line, is being scaled back significantly over financing difficulties.

The cost of managing refugees in the UK is “wreaking havoc” on government finances, according to one official. The EU passed a large migration & asylum deal, sparking fears that migrants & refugees might be forcibly relocated into member states who oppose their arrival particularly strongly. The new plan will not quell old debates.

A cholera scare in Mozambique prompted 122 people to flee the coast in a ramshackle ferry; it capsized, killing at least 96 people. A cable car pylon collapsed in Türkiye, killing 1.

A growing water crisis in Hawai’i has been caused, experts say, by a combination of Drought, pollution (jet fuel & PFAS), and the commodification of water. Officials fear that energy-intensive desalination plants may become necessary to support drinking water supplies.

An upcoming study of microplastics in Antarctic seawater found that microplastic concentrations are higher in all 17 tested samples than in previous tests—which did not account for certain plastics too small for their detection. Although the study is published in 2024, the water samples date from 2021, and do not account for recent plastics pollution of our oceans. A similar study in Nature Geoscience says that PFAS concentrations are also underestimated in surface & groundwater. The American EPA made new guidelines restricting PFAS chemicals in drinking water supplies.

An Environmental Sciences & Technology study into plastic’s GHG emissions across five sectors—packaging, building and construction, automotive, textiles, and consumer durables—found that plastics actually produce fewer emissions than their common recyclable alternatives, usually metals, paper products, and glass. The only solution is to cut our consumption altogether—a hard sell to a hungry population.

A Royal Society study into the growth of cities compared their mostly-organic growth with the development of cancer—with transportation networks mirroring vascular channels, and other population expansion dynamics paralleling biological systems. Drought in the Pyrenees has lasted for 3 years and counting. Flash flooding in Kenya killed 13 and left 15,000+ displaced.

The Canadian dollar hit a 5-month low amid its fastest monthly decline in almost a year. Although macro-figures indicate the Canadian economy isn’t as bad as people claim, individual polls say otherwise, with about two thirds of the population feeling their purchasing power declining.

A blood analysis study suggests that about 21% of COVID survivors develop Long COVID. That tracks with a batch of Mississippi data which says 20% of adults have Long COVID. Yet another study from The Lancet confirms that, yes, Long COVID can linger in your body for years.

UK farmers are warning of declining agricultural productivity ahead, mostly as a result of recent flooding—some of which is too far from the rivers to be compensated by government bailouts. A 23-page report on African food security & production paints a mixed picture, with hunger particularly bad in West/Central Africa, and relatively manageable farther south.

A hailstorm blasted 36,000+ hectares of crops (360+ km2) across India. Dengue fever in Peru. A 160-year-old total abortion ban in Arizona—passed long before Arizona was a state (1912) & before women could vote (1920)— was defended by the state’s Supreme Court, and is set to go into effect in less than a fortnight.

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Israel is pivoting to the north in its growing focus for a War against Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militia, which is scaling up cyberattacks against Israel. Israel’s “C-Dome,” a naval-based version of its Iron Dome missile defense system, went operational for the first time ever. The IDF is finalizing its preparations for their offensive into Rafah, where reports of dangerous levels of pollution and trash are piling up. IDF efforts have now damaged Hamas’ ability to fight & govern—and slain many innocent Palestinians—but Israel is far from winning the peace. Some American officials expect the assault into Rafah to begin next week—and Iranian strikes may have expanded the War by striking Israel with 300+ drones, almost all of which were intercepted. Iran also seized a Portugal-flagged cargo ship connected to an Israeli billionaire.

Three Tanzanian soldiers were killed by a mortar attack in the DRC. Ecuador is becoming more violent, as drug gangs are scaling up their armaments, and fighting for territory & respect. Quebec citizens are reconsidering separation possibilities amid Canada’s bottomless housing, immigration, and economic problems. Canada’s military is also experiencing what some have called a “death spiral.” A deadly stabber in Australia killed 6, and shocked the country. Researchers remain concerned about how bad actors may weaponize AI & deepfakes to undermine our information ecosystem.

In Haiti, a transition council is being convened soon to establish new political authorities; they will be unlikely to manage the carnage unleashed upon the failed state. The last evacuation flights of American citizens landed in Miami on Friday. The capital is suffering from chaotic sieges, random violence, and worsening supply shortages.

South Korea launched its second military satellite into orbit. China performed naval drills in the South China Sea, as a response to recent U.S.-Japan-Australia-Philippines exercises in the region. President Biden reassured the Philippines and Japan of American promises to defend the two nations if they are attacked by China anyone.

Amid calls for more defense spending, European officials are concerned that their military-industrial complex (MIC) is too reliant on Chinese cotton for their nitrocellulose, a flammable compound also known as guncotton. The Chinese MIC is also heavily supporting Russia’s military expansion—not by selling weapons, but by providing the tools, electronics, and materiel-adjacent materials necessary to wage a prolonged campaign. Russia also tested a ground-based missile that some experts interpret as a nuclear threat.

Despite fighting a high-casualty War against Ukraine for 2+ years, Russia’s army is 15% bigger than it was when its full-scale invasion began. Ukraine’s government has shelved its plans to demobilize soldiers who served over 3 years. The move was necessary to maintain critical manpower levels, but came at the expense of front-line morale. Ukraine is also increasing mobilization, as well as penalties for draft dodgers. Russia and Ukraine are blaming each other for another drone strike at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, where the last operational reactor was thereafter put into cold shutdown. Weapons & defensive missiles to Ukraine are not meeting demand; Russian strikes in the Kharkiv and Odesa regions killed 7 on Wednesday.

Reports indicate that Russia may try an offensive to seize Kharkiv in the near future, as Ukraine’s eastern front grows brittle after a brutal year of a bloody near-stalemate. Analysts are talking about what Ukraine losing the War would look like, and how it could happen. Russian forces also arrived in Niger last week.

Over 500,000 Afghans were deported from Pakistan since operations began in October. Since then, Iran and Türkiye have reportedly increased persecution & deportation of Afghan refugees living outside the Taliban’s regime.

Sudan’s latest War turns one year old on Monday. The conflict has unleashed suffering unto millions of people in the country. Over 8.5M have been displaced, with almost 2M fleeing into neighboring countries, mostly Egypt, Chad, and South Sudan. About 16,000 people have been reported killed, though real figures are likely much higher—particularly in Darfur. The rebel forces, the RSF, drawn mostly from the ethnic Arab militia known as the Janjaweed, have committed atrocities, particularly against ethnic Africans in southwest Sudan. Control of Khartoum (pre-War metro pop: 6M+) remains divided. About 5M people are experiencing emergency levels of famine, and another 18M facing food shortages. Since the War began, food production was cut in half. Schools have also been closed in some regions, and water infrastructure damaged. Only 20-30% of hospitals are operational. A ceasefire seems far away, and negotiating with so many levels of authorities and militia subgroups is difficult. The conflict also threatens to spill over into South Sudan and beyond.

Myanmar’s heavy-handed attempt to expand mandatory two-year conscription to all men & women of certain ages has backfired hugely: the intimidated & rebel-sympathetic middle, who have long-sought to keep their heads down and survive the complex ethno/tribal Civil War around them, are being forced to pick a side—and many are fleeing to the rebel cause struggling against the losing, ruling military junta. Some experts believe the momentum against the government may hasten their Collapse faster than expected. But what happens afterwards?

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Select comments/threads from the subreddit last week suggest:

-Phone addiction, depression, ADHD, alienation, and a number of other aliments are afflicting the young—and old—and taking down the education system with them—according to this weekly observation from Denver, Colorado. Long gone are the days of limiting screen time, effective discipline, physical books, and meaningful interventions. It’s like we’re all half-assing it into the grave—faster than expected.

-Basically nobody is paying attention to avian flu, if this observation and our anecdotal experience is accurate. Are we just resigned to a future pandemic, too distracted to care, or do we have faith that our institutions have learned their COVID lessons and are better prepared to handle this one?

-Collapse is a complex process—and this Friday meme from u/SaxManSteve highlights how narrow the focus of some organizations & governments & people are when thinking about our problems. We could fix ten of our serious threats (lol) but still be taken down by the other 40.

-An image of Europe from r/Europe projects what its climate zones would look like in a near-worst-case scenario, RCP 8.5, some 1000+ ppm, more than 4° C increase—and all within the next 60 years. The pessimistic forecast shows a dry continent, and it probably doesn’t account fully for the AMOC Collapse…

Got any feedback, questions, comments, complaints, upvotes, eclipse stories, sea levels maps, doomy fanfiction, climate nightmares, etc.? Check out the Last Week in Collapse SubStack if you don’t want to check r/collapse every Sunday, you can receive this newsletter sent to your (or someone else’s) email inbox every weekend. What did I miss this week?

This is an ongoing event with multiple developments. In order to keep the forum from being overwhelmed, the mods will be redirecting threads to here.

Please remember our forum rules. Attack ideas, not each other.

We are literally on the “Brink of the Abyss”.

Start with this, 2023 was the HOTTEST year, by far, in “at least” the last 125,000 years.

In January 2023 the Global Mean Temperature was an Observable +1.2C. By December 2023 it was almost +1.8C. That’s a +0.6C JUMP in a SINGLE YEAR.

December 2023 was the warmest December on record globally, with an average temperature of 13.51°C, +0.85°C above the 1991-2020 average and +1.78°C above the 1850-1900 level for the month.

Got that?

December 2023 was about +1.8C over the 1850-1900 baseline.

That was 2023.

2024 has been HOTTER.

It hasn't started cooling down yet.

This is VERY BAD.

The Crisis Report - 67

The Climate System is going INSANE right now. You would think more people would be paying attention.

FREE ACCESS on SubStack.

^(I am) ^(not) ^(affiliated with this game in any way.)

This is related to collapse because it's a game which depicts the de-glorified reality of the end of the world, and I think others might enjoy getting depressed over it. There aren't many good collapse games, and this might be worth checking out.

I've found myself wishing for a game that's about collapse, and while this isn't what I was looking for, it feels pretty accurate to our future. If you're looking for a short ~4 hour game about collapse, I'd recommend "The Stillness of the Wind" when it's on a deep sale. (or watch it on youtube) It's kind've an artistic experience. It's not a bunker-hero simulator, it's about an average older person just trying to surive.

Basically, you play as an old lady who is trying to keep up her farm by herself. She's old, getting older, and the world world is dying. This game definitely isn't for everyone, especially if you're easily bored. It's only about 4 hours though. The story unfolds through letters you get from family in the city and objects you can interact with around the area.

It starts out cozy and slow, but over time, your relatives write of city life collapsing, the weather gets worse, the days get shorter, you have less energy, and your mind starts to go. It's pretty depressing, but so is our future. It doesn't explain much, so I'll put some tips in the comments.

edit to add:

Steam Page and itch.io page ,

Developers get a bigger cut on itch.io, for the record.

Thanks to mod thekbob.

​

https://preview.redd.it/f2rx6iodr3uc1.jpg?width=1920&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c156da99444dd90d2cdc9d6a7c592fe035f7f397

In every era of significant societal upheaval, there's a pattern that emerges: as established economic systems begin to crumble, so too does the prevailing understanding of reality. From the fall of the Roman Empire to the end of the Middle Ages, we've seen major shifts not just in power, but in the collective consciousness of society. Today, as our own economic system faces unprecedented challenges, we're witnessing the resurgence of a concept long relegated to the fringes: magic.

This essay explores the intricate relationship between economic collapse and the resurgence of magical thinking. It's not just about fantasy or escape; it's about understanding the deep-seated human need to find meaning and agency in times of chaos. As we stand on the brink of another major societal shift, it's crucial to understand the historical context of this phenomenon and what it means for our future.

The discussion is not merely academic; it's a call to re-examine the foundational beliefs that shape our reality. As we navigate these turbulent times, the concepts of magic and the power of the mind offer a radical perspective on our ability to influence the world around us.

Read the full essay here and join the conversation: https://www.nateknopp.com/p/magic-and-revolution

How do you see the concept of magic and mental power playing a role in our response to societal collapse? Have you observed signs of this shift in your own perspectives or in the world around you?

This shows 24 hours of global air traffic as condensed into a few seconds. Look at that shit: it's crazy.

This article asserts there are over 10, 000, 000 people that fly daily and over 100, 000 flights each day.

But aren't we supposed to be doing something about the amount of pollution we are putting into the atmosphere? How does this insanity continue when we are increasingly aware of the dire circumstances we are facing? I mean, fuck, do 10, 000, 000 people really need to be jetting around every fucking day?

Now maybe the rationale is, "well, it doesn't seem to be too much of a contribution to the problem," but it seems to me that we are at the point (past it, really) where any contribution to the problem needs to be looked at and examined as to its necessity. I don't know about you, but travelling to go on holiday, to see exotic locations, to visit family, even, do not seem like necessities to me.

It's unreal that people keep on doing problematic things that are contributing to the calamity we face in terms of GHG emissions simply for their own privileged decadence. It's part of the reason why I'm somewhat misanthropic and cynical: people seem unable to make better choices, choices that are more altruistic and not simply egocentrically self-serving.

I mean, I don't give a fuck about your Insta holiday snaps, but I do give a fuck about the continued existence of the life currently inhabiting the planet. I guess there are too many of us that feel otherwise.