https://x.com/JimJr81/status/1882183242381664443

So Norway’s best oil and gas fields are getting depleted. They can only upkeep their production if they keep investing in new projects.

‘We expect overall production to decline in the later 2020s,” the report from the Norwegian Offshore Directorate said.’

This is problematic since the UK relies on Norway for its oil and gas imports. UK’s oil/gas fields are depleting as we speak so this is something they can’t ignore. If Norway starts to decline, the UK and other European countries need to decide if they want to import from Russia again.

“Dusk for Norway is dawn for Russia,” says Andreas Schroeder, head of energy analytics at the Independent Commodity Intelligence Service (ICIS).”

I think that if Europe fails to manage this incoming problem again, the ‘last’ energy crisis we had in 2022 we be like a walk in the park. Qatar will stop its exports of natural Gas as well if the European Union will enforce strict laws on supply chains, which Qatar opposes. And the since the US production of natural gas/shale is not increasing significantly, this might become a problem for the EU as well in the coming years.

Just finished the book Societies beyond oil (2011) from John Urry. It’s a bit dated but I still found some interesting info. Anyway, according to John the spike in oil prices played a big part in the financial crisis in 2008. He writes:

“But this extravaganza came to a shuddering halt when oil prices increased in the early years of this century. Suburban houses could not be sold, especially where they were in far-flung oil-dependent locations. Financial products and institutions were found to be worthless. easy money, easy credit and easy oil had gone together. And when oil prices hit the roof in these US suburbs, then easy money and credit came to an abrupt halt and the presumed upward shift in property prices was shown to be a false dream. the financial house of cards had been built upon cheap oil. when the oil got prohibitively expensive the house of cards collapsed to the ground. timothy Mitchell observes how the ‘shortage of oil from 2005 to 2008 ... caused a six-fold increase in its price. ... the surge in oil prices triggered the global financial crisis of 2008–9.’ “

Most of you guys already know this, but I was wondering if we’re not in a similar precarious situation these days? Stocks are at an all time high, governments are increasing their debt to keep the economy running. The US economy needs to grow in order to pay back the interest rate on its debt. If oil prices will surge again in the near future, you can throw all the money you want at the economy, it’s just not going to work. So what are some signs you already see and how is this situation the same or different from 2008?

I remember hearing about peak oil in the early 90s, and realized then what an apocalypse that would cause. I remember the intense derision people talking about it received, and eventually it felt like even some of the major prophets of peak oil were downplaying it.

AFAIK, the predictions have been rock solid. Hubbert nailed the US 100 EROI peak and now the US is at peak for the 15 EROI oil. Am I the only one that remembers the crises in the early and then late 70s? After peak, we increasingly had to get oil from foreign countries, who weren't always on our side. They could stagnate our economy at will.

So now we're at a new peak, we want continued growth, and just elected a president that wants us more dependent on oil. I don't hear anyone talking about peak or how similar this is to the 70s. IYKYK

Remember when U.S. shale was the energy equivalent of a magic beanstalk? Now it's more like an old flip phone—drops bars when you need it most. "Peak oil? More like peak disappointment Sorry, shale, but we all saw this coming, and it’s like watching your battery hit 10% on a road trip. Charge up, or we're walking

Oh sure, Chad, let me just casually explain finite resources over your V8 engine roar while you sip a $7 latte. Meanwhile, I’m out here calculating my daily caloric intake based on post-peak scenarios. Enjoy that MPG… for now. 🚗💨 Peak oilers, assemble

• Goehring & Rozencwajg: U.S. shale production peaked in late 2023 and is now declining.

• Geological depletion rather than market dynamics poses the biggest challenge.

With just a month left before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump begins his second term at the Oval Office, oil prices have been struggling to find direction, intensifying the notion that oil markets seem content to wait for him to take office.

Trump has repeatedly vowed that he’ll push shale producers to ramp up output, even if it means operators “drill themselves out of business.”

But it’s not clear how he intends to accomplish this feat since U.S. oil is produced by independent companies and not a national oil company (NOC).

Last month, Exxon Mobil’s (NYSE:XOM) Upstream President Liam Mallon dismissed the notion that U.S. producers will dramatically increase output under a second Trump term. However, Trump’s drilling ambitions might be thwarted by an even bigger challenge: U.S. oilfields could be nearing their final act.

According to Goehring & Rozencwajg LLC, a fundamental research firm specializing in contrarian natural resource investments, U.S. shale output is in the early innings of a protracted decline, with depletion, not market dynamics or regulatory overreach, the chief culprit. The analysts had previously predicted that the explosive production growth triggered by the U.S. shale revolution would flatline in late 2024 or early 2025. However, the reality could be worse: According to data by the EIA, shale crude oil production peaked in November 2023, and has declined about 2% since then while shale dry gas production peaked that same month and has since slipped by 1% or 1 billion cubic feet per day. And, it’s about to get worse, with Goehring & Rozencwajg’s model predicting an even steeper decline going forward.

The contrarian investors have compared the unfolding situation to the oil crisis of the 1970s. They note that President Nixon responded to the first OPEC oil crisis in 1973 by launching Project Independence, which aimed to reverse the decline in U.S. output through deregulation and expedited permitting. Oil prices soared from $3.18 per barrel in 1973 to $34 per barrel by 1981, inducing an explosion in drilling activity. Consequently, the U.S. oil rig count jumped from 993 in 1973 to a staggering 4,500 by late 1981. Unfortunately, the surge in drilling was unable to counter the natural law of depletion: By the end of 1981, U.S. crude production had fallen to 8.5 million barrels per day, good for a 15% decline from the time Nixon launched his ambitious program. The analysts note that U.S. crude output hit a nadir of 5 million barrels per day in 2010, even as prices hovered around $100 per barrel. Goehring & Rozencwajg has labeled this phenomenon ‘The Depletion Paradox’, and have warned that higher prices alone will not be sufficient to counteract geological realities. The analysts have pointed to the famous aphorism by the legendary M. King Hubbert, a geologist for Shell Plc. (NYSE:SHEL): every hydrocarbon basin is a finite resource. In effect, the production of any oil and gas field begins at zero, rises as extraction ramps up, and ultimately reaches an upper limit that represents the total recoverable resource in the basin.

To exacerbate matters, U.S. producers won’t have the incentive of high prices under a second Trump administration: A new survey from law firm Haynes Boone LLC has revealed that banks are gearing up for oil prices to fall below $60 a barrel by the middle of Trump’s new term.

https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/2025-a-civilizational-tipping-point

Is his analysis valid? Fracking profitability starts declining as soon as 2025?

Environmental realists know there is no big solution to climate change and resource depletion. As time goes on we all get poorer and humans running on limited information will get angry and demand change. So I predict more one-term presidents of both parties in the United States and more large party shifts in parliamentary systems. Every politician will naively promise health and wealth for just a vote and fail to deliver whether the platform is far left or far right. Expect huge occillations. New communist planned economies in some countries, far right violent xenophobia in others, ultra liberalized corporatocracy in some, global debt balloons, all while the poor kill eachother over scraps in wars, civil wars, and gang violence. Remember this is no one's fault. Earth can't support all of us. We may be slaves on the plantation, but don't forget to dance.

Is it me, or does this make no sense? I thought fracking only paid off at $120/ barrel. Are there subsidies nobody is talking about?