A forum for discussion and current events concerning peak oil, limits to growth, oil sector news and the direction of humanity post-fossil fuel. (see references below)
What is Peak Oil?
ASPO International on peak oil
There's No Tomorrow, a peak oil documentary
What is Limits to Growth?
I have heard it said among peakers that for any given peak oil production level, five years need to pass before it is considered a peak. According to Statista (here) peak oil production peaked in 2018 at 4.5 billion tons. This is still the peak but production went up in 2022 and almost surpassed that peak at 4.4 billion tons. So I would say that 2022 peak is the secondary peak that should now be tracked for a five year period. One year down so far, gas prices are up and there is inflation in basic commodities but nothing catastrophic. So in conclusion I think the really big stuff can still be delayed another 5 years.
I have some rookie questions about peak oil being in November 2018 (Alice Friedemann)...
(this is related to Peak Oil because it's about energy generation and how the IEA is possibly overstating renewable capacity, making it sound like we're less dependent on fossil fuels than we are)
The IEA's chart here called "Share of cumulative power capacity by technology, 2010-2027" shows that in 2016 "solar = 4.5%"
The Our World In Data chart here called "Share of electricity production by source, World" shows that in 2016 "solar = 1.35%"
Why the difference for the "same" thing in the same year? (clearly it's not the same thing) Is it... underperforming panels? Like they they could've generated that higher % under perfect conditions?
I live in Texas, a state that is regarded by some as having the most energy consumed per person in the world mostly because of the tremendous amount of large trucks people use to transport one person while hauling absolutely nothing. By replacing each of those trucks with a sane choice like a basic ICE sedan, a lot of energy loss can be averted. Wind energy is actually fairly developed in the state and by moving to electric car ride sharing more energy can be more efficiently used for transportation of people. Less wear and tear on the roads from lighter vehicles means they will cost less in yearly upkeep. In big cities in conservative states where trains and light rail are considered outrageous communist, atheist contraptions from the pit of hell, I think a compromise can be made in something I call "half-assed rail" which is just a road (a good Christian road) with the added restriction of only letting self-driving AI cars on it. That way boomers can get transported to CVS for the medicine while not having to sit next to a black person, or an atheist. Look at any big-box store like Walmart or Costco. Most of the stuff in there is junk that no one needs. Around this time of Halloween we see gigantic plastic decorations in front yards just for a few weeks. If in the future those just disappear, nothing will be lost. In the near future those same stores can use their floor space to hold big dispensers of water instead of throw-away plastic bottles (more economical anyway), and also big dispensers of soap, shampoo, and clothing detergent. The tacky McMansions in the suburbs can be converted to multi-family housing units. These are just a few things that thankfully are incentivized by the forces of frugality that allows civilization to continue without feeling too different.
Part of my post below was posted as a comment to the post "Where did the experts go?", but I thought that it could very well fit as an own post, so I deleted it and posted it here, with some additions:
Hello you all! You forgot, in the comments below the last post "Where did the experts go? (1)" to mention Richard Heinberg's museletters, which are still sent out, Steve St. Angelo's blog "SrsRocco Report"(behind a paywall, though, but it can suffice to read the headlines and the beginning of every post). Tim Watkins' energy articles on his blog "The consciousness of sheep", Alice Friedemann's blog "Peak Everything, Overshoot, & Collapse, then the investment firm "Goehring & Rozencwajg Natural Resource Investors" (their blog is here), Chris Martenson's blog at "Peak Prosperity" (behind a paywall, but the same can be said of his blog as of the "SrsRocco Report" blog), Tim Morgan's blog "Surplus energy economics", Kurt Cobb's blog "Resource Insights", Mike Shellman's blog "Oily Stuff", Enno Peters' blog "Shale Oil and Gas Insights & News Blog", then "The future, science fiction and the Matrix", which is a spanish Peak Oil-blogg, then Matt Mushalik's blog "Crude Oil Peak", and finally one of the most exciting ones, Ron Patterson's et al. blog "Peak Oil Barrel".
I find them all relevant. Do they provide good analysis?
My opinion is that the Peak Oil movement is still very alive, and does a pretty good job, but it's just not so easy to find the good stuff on the internet - the writers in the peak oil movement are not very good at marketing themselves. I hope that the blogs mentioned in this post can be a good introduction to where the serious Peak Oil stuff on the internet is to be found.
(1) where the following important Peak Oil writers were mentioned (I give also links to their blogs): Gail Tverberg with her blog "Our finite world", Art Berman with his blog on his homepage (scroll down on the homepage to find his blog), Antonio Turiel with his spanish blog on https://crashoil.blogspot.com/. Then Nate Hagens, with his YouTube-blog, and Kjell Aleklett with his old blog "Aleklett's Energy Mix" (which was last updated 2017).
"The Oil Drum's" old archives can be read here.
The geologists, the scientists who kicked the whole peakoil awareness ball off back in the last century, where are these men, where are their replacements? All we see are amateur vids on youtube now. The geology experts were followed in the 2000's by other scientists and increasingly journos who setup sites online to feed on the movement. Yes those were mostly profit based and now many have morphed into other areas of interest. People typically that had been booted out of mainstream media jobs for being truthful, people like James Howard kuntseller.
They did an important job but they had no credibility in themselves, it was inferred. Kunstler grew into a whiny old boomer, ranting about politics, the virus, the NWO. Anything that sells to his subscribers. Alas though, he is now always about one year behind the facts. And this because he assumes his opinions and knowledge is worth something, it's not! He is a journalist, not an expert in any field. His pod is still worth downloading as it often has relevant experts on it but I wish I could easily edit out his rambling opinions on matters he is clearly out of his depth on.
But going back, as time went on it was clear that the efforts of the scientists were being ignored by government so they wandered off and did other things, the Big Shale boom lie, which was so eloquently marketed by the establishment as being "A new era of oil" made people look away too. After all, the vast majority weren't really interested in changing anything, they were just scared, and if they could go back to their usual consumption of oil and all the goodies it brought to the door they were happy.
Let's be honest, we all think that way, very very few want to go live in a bark hut. Some do, one in a million, but I wanted to keep upgrading my motorcycle(s) and buy a 4x4 and much much more. Which I did, but the message of peakoil stayed with me and I made the changes those early voices recommended. I avoided all debt, saved money outside of the "system", moved to a sustainable region, one at least that had a lot of food and meat produced locally, had it's own water supply locally. And I began to live thriftily. This is all we can hope for because we're up against a corporate octopus that has bought and paid for the globe's politicians. Nothing will happen on the global energy depletion front until they precipitate it and they are making far too much still to warrant a change.
Just think of all the oil coal and gas going into the "Rebuildable Future" Energy that will have to be consumed all over again in 15 to 20 years when the stuff breaks down. No one considers that, but I do, because I have a lot of solar on the roof and it may not outlive me. So being aware of peakoil, which in real terms did occur in the late 2000's, just as predicted, we are left with a choice. Do we go on about our lives in nations where inflation is stealing our future, where our savings are invested in banks and markets poised to collapse at any moment, in cities that are becoming more violent and unstable by the month? Or do we make a concerted effort to carry on as usual (Yes), to see that our lives are not thrown into the trash bin with everyone else's when the Big Reset arrives, or more likely, when the long emergency slowly grinds everyone not on the fortune 500 list into relative poverty.
The Peak Oil message is as relevant today as it was in 2004 when I heard it. Make your choice, or risk ending up living out of a dumpster.
We aim to do the first podcast in around 3 weeks, with three people aged 40+ (Canadian, Brit and American)
There are many fascinating aspects to the theory:
How were climate skeptics almost universally convinced that finite resources are a Club of Rome hoax?
How many will die or be killed, and how?
Will demand destruction and innovation speed up sufficiently to avoid any sudden crash?
Is there a manufactured division between "renewable tech evangelists" and "fossil conspiracy dinosaurs", to keep both distracted and deceived about scarcity being the reason for economic decline?
Is fear of viruses and climate change paving the way to de facto global government?
What level of resistance will be mounted to digital controls, or how will digital control be forced upon us?
In the meantime we'd love to hear suggestions and take any questions.
I was listening to the Doomberg analyst podcast and the main presenter actually thinks somewhere between now and the 2040s the 2018 peak will be broken a few more times.