This post is a continuation of my series where I take a look at players who will either be competing against one another on the same team, or players that should have similar ADPs in 2025 drafts

I created this series to keep these players on peoples radars throughout the off-season, and to provide some hopefully insightful data, along with an evaluation of each player, in order to determine who could be a better fantasy value in 2025 and if either player is even worth being drafted

Previous Posts: Jalen Coker vs Xavier Legette & Travis Etienne Jr. vs Tank Bigsby

Today I will be covering 49ers WRs Jauan Jennings and Brandon Aiyuk

Jauan Jennings vs Brandon Aiyuk (2024 Stats)

There was a great post in the Dynasty football sub reddit last year analyzing which WR stats are the "stickiest" and you can read it right here: Sticky WR Stats

• He determined the three best metrics for WR predictability are: weighted opportunity rating, air yards share, and target share
• You can find all 3 of these stats for both Aiyuk and Jennings in the excel spreadsheet above

Key for Abbreviations in above Excel Spreadsheet

*General assumption is Deebo will be gone in the off-season. This is based on his play, attitude, emergence of other receiving talent (Jennings & Pearsall), and a 2025 cap hit of nearly $16 million (dead cap value of $31 million)

49ers Offense

This offense was wracked with injuries all throughout the 2024 season, especially to key players on the offense (including 4 offensive linemen and arguably their best player in Trent Williams). Despite these injuries, the 49ers were still the 10th highest fantasy scoring offense in the league (3rd in 2023). This is a team that will be high-powered if healthy, which makes investing in this offense enticing at potentially a discount in 2025

Brock Purdy

I am of the opinion that Purdy is a top 12 QB in the league, and deserves a solid contract that keeps him in San Francisco for the foreseeable future. He had a solid season in 2024, nothing special, but I remain optimistic because he put up some markedly good stats despite losing 4 offensive lineman, one of the best RB's in the league in McCaffrey, and their WR1 in Aiyuk

2024 Stats:

• Upper Tier: 68 QBR Rating, 8.5 Yards per Attempt, & 258 passing yards per game
• Mid Tier: 96.1 Passer Rating, 76.3 Passing PFF Grade, 66% completion rating, 30.3% passing attempts per game, and a 3% turnover worthy play rate

All more than serviceable, despite missing key players, and we've also seen what kind of numbers he can put up with a fully healthy offensive unit

2023 Stats: 113 Passer Rating (1st), 88.4 PPF Grade (4th), 20.3 Fantasy PPG (7th), 4,280 Passing Yards (5th), and 31 Passing TD's (3rd)

He was arguable one of the best QB's in the league last season, and someone who I believe can return to that form in 2025

Jauan Jennings

Jennings was a pleasant surprise, having what was essentially a "5th year breakout". This opportunity arose because of injuries to Deebo week 2 (Jennings popped off for 46.5 fantasy points with Deebo out that following week) and Brandon Aiyuk for the majority of the season (ACL/MCL/Meniscus)

Jennings' snap share jumped up to around 90% the weeks in which either Deebo or Aiyuk were out (50% snap share when those two were healthy). He was mentioned 3-4 times on the weekly "who passes the eye test" in a big way as the 49ers best receiver

2024 Stats:

• Upper Tier: 83.1 PPF Grade, 28.2% target on route rate, and 62.5% contested catch rate
• Mid Tier: PFF Grade vs Man & Zone (79 & 75.8), Weighted Opportunities per game (10.3), 103,2 Passer Rating when targeted, ESPN Scores (all 4), 4.9% drop rate, and Target Share (24.9%)
• Lower Tier: Yards after the catch per reception (3.1), Percent of total yards achieved after the catch (26.5), average YAC above expectation (.5)

It is evident that Jennings was above average in most receiving categories, with his main weakness being the inability to churn out additional yardage after the catch

One of the issues for me in regard to Jauan is his volatility and being in a potentially crowded receiving room

• From weeks 10-18 he only average 12.6 PPG, busting (fewer than 10 points) 4/9 of those weeks
• If Pearsall begins to be incorporated more, with Aiyuk returning to form, I could have some slight worry about trusting Jennings in my lineup every week
• However, we have seen how high his upside can be, as he scored 6 TD's with several multi TD games, resulting in 46.5, 25.1, and 28 fantasy points in those games respectively

He will still be competing with Brandon Aiyuk on the outside, but Aiyuk was not only playing at a low level when he was healthy in 2024, but will coming back from a very significant knee injury

If Deebo leaves and Jennings is going outside round 7/8 in PPR drafts, I would feel fairly confident in drafting him as a WR3/Flex player (fantasy pros currently has him ranked 120 overall)

Brandon Aiyuk

Aiyuk is going to be one of the toughest players to gauge in 2025 drafts. Not only did he suffer a brutal knee injury week 7, but he was also playing objectively bad football almost every week prior to that, and was constantly mentioned as failing the eye test week in and week out

He was the centerpiece of a lot of off-season drama, as he was demanding a massive contract extension and requesting to be traded multiple times when contract talks were not going his way

There was a belief from 49ers fans that his poor play was due to him missing training camp (making him rusty or out of shape week 1) and his attitude and demands caused Shanahan to put him back into the doghouse (where he lived uncomfortably often early in his career)

2024 Stats:

• Upper Tier - Nothing
• Mid Tier - Almost every receiving category
• Lower Tier - Passer Rating when targeted (64.5), TDs (0), YAC % (26.5%), Red Zone Target Share (12.2%)

There was nothing that he was doing well or at a high-level (maybe apart from some separation metrics), which still surprised me, even with the two aforementioned reasons explaining why he was doing so poorly, because of how amazing he was in 2023

2023 Stats:

• 92.3 PFF Grade (2nd highest), 84 yards per game, 29 receptions of 20+ yards, and only 2 drops all season

He was playing like one of the best receivers in the league last season, on a team with the 3rd highest scoring fantasy offense. The caveat to the best fantasy season of his career in 2023, is that he only had a 24% target share resulting in 6.6 targets per game leading to a WR14 finish

Unless Deebo leaves and Aiyuk plays at this level once again, it is unlikely he will garner a large enough target share in this offense to finish inside the top 10

So the concerns have been spelled out and we know what sort of fantasy ceiling he is capable of. If you main worry is how he recovers from the ACL injury, here is a great article from a few years ago out lining how receivers recover different than RBs in regard to that injury

He is currently ranked 65th on fantasy pros, which would put him around the 5th/6th round. The 6th is probably the absolute highest I would be willing to draft him given his situation

Conclusion

Obviously a lot is riding on whether or not Deebo re-signs with the team this off-season. If he does, I would likely be out on both Aiyuk and Jennings, given how crowded this receiving room will be and where their expected ADPS will seemingly be

If Deebo leaves, I would definitely lean towards Jauan Jennings where his expected ADP is (outside the 8th round) given where we've seen his ceiling be at, and the level of play he displayed in 2024.

Aiyuk I wouldn't touch unless he fell outside the 6th round, even though he's played at a consistently higher level than Jennings the entirety of his career prior to this season (both going into their 6th seasons in 2025)

However, I think the safest bet, as far as players to invest in on the 49ers, are Brock Purdy and George Kittle. They will both be fairly affordable and have far fewer risks than either Jennings or Aiyuk

*For those wondering about my opinion on Pearsall in this offense: https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/1hs52fo/predicting_breakout_wrs_in_2025/

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#Official: [League, Commissioner, and Platform Issues] - Fri 01/31/2025

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This post is a continuation of my series where I take a look at players who will either be competing against one another on the same team, or players that should have similar ADPs in 2025 drafts. I wanted to provide some hopefully insightful data along with evaluation of each player, in order to determine who could be a better fantasy value next season

1st Post: Jalen Coker vs Xavier Legette

Today I will be discussing the Jaguars backfield in Travis Etienne Jr. & Tank Bigsby

Etienne vs Bigsby 2024 Metrics

Key for Abbreviations in the Excel Spreadsheet

Jaguars Offense

The Jaguars offense was pretty abysmal last season apart from Brian Thomas Jr.

• They only averaged 18.8 points per game, and were towards the bottom of the league in rush attempts
• Their OL was also terrible, ranked 26th in run blocking and 21st in pass blocking

Trevor Lawrence missed 7 games due to injury, but their offensive scheme as a whole was atrocious regardless of who the starting QB was in 2024, and they really had trouble moving the ball down the field efficiently most of the year

They've made several leadership changes in 2025 already

• As expected, Doug Pederson was fired, along with their god awful GM Trent Baalke
• They went out and aggressively pursued the Buccaneers OC Liam Cohen, and he was hired in late January, but they kept OC Press Taylor

If we choose to suppress and ignore his first pressor (Duval), I think Jaguar fans should be extremely excited for this coaching hire. I would like to operate under the general assumption that this offense will be run similar to Tampa's (Cohen will be calling plays), where we see a 60/40 split

Travis Etienne Jr.

Etienne was horrible in almost every aspect of the game in 2024, with league low metrics across the board (receiving PFF was the only stat he was slightly above average in)

• Middle Tier - Weighted Opportunities per Game (11.6), Fumbles (1), and Percentage of Yards after Contact (66.1%)
• Bottom Tier - Pass Blocking (19.2), Yards per Carry (3.7), Yards after Contact per Attempt (2.5), Forced Missed Tackles per Touch (14.3%), Breakaway Percentage (19%), and Elusiveness Rating (35.4)

He was listed on this sub reddit quite often as failing the eye test week in and week out, and never looked even remotely like his 2023 self. Yes he struggled with injuries most of the year, but the risk in drafting him had been spelt out prior to 2024 drafts. Either from his usage week 10 onwards in 2023, or from the lips of Doug Pederson, who inexplicably at the time, stated prior to the 2024 season they would incorporate other RBs more often

• 2023 Stats - 16.6 PPG (13 PPG weeks 10-16), 3.8 Yards per Carry, 11 TDs, 73 targets, and 0 fumbles
• Their OL was ranked just as poorly (22nd overall)

It is evident that not all of the blame can be placed solely on Etienne for his poor numbers, as the Jaguars were a horribly coached team, with a bottom 10 OL, who seldom scored

• The old Jaguars regime also inexplicably rushed Etienne straight up the middle the majority of the time (65+% in 2023 and 2024) when that was clearly not complematary to the style of running he is best at

That being said, when a younger RB is able to perform measurably better, with all the same hindrances, your job as a lead back is definitely in danger

• Bigsby only out snapped Etienne Jr. when they were both healthy 2 weeks out of the entire season

Tank Bigsby

Bigsby was one of the biggest surprises at the RB position in 2024 for me. He looked like a bottom of the barrel practice squad RB last season

• 51 total touches on 2.6 yards per carry, with 2 fumbles, and only 1 explosive run

Even though Pederson stated he was going to give more touches to Bigsby, despite his poor play as a rookie, I don't think many of us expected him to take the leap he did and handedly out play Etienne as a rusher in 2024 (stats below)

• Top Tier - Percentage of Yards after Contact (80.5%), Yards after Contact per Attempt (3.7), Forced Missed Tackles per Touch Percentage (28.6%), and Elusiveness Rating (106.8)
• Above Average Tier - Yards per Carry (4.6), Explosive Run Rate (11.9%), and Breakaway Percentage (31.6%)
• Lower Tier - Receiving PFF Grade (36.8), Pass Blocking PFF Grade (25.3), Fumbles (3)

Bigsby was better than Etienne in nearly every measurable way in 2024, but was still getting out snapped by Etienne the final 5 games of the season (54% to 40%)

• I think the fumbling issues were one of the main inhibitors to Bigsby seeing more snaps

His main issues in comparison to Etienne are his lack of ball security (5 fumbles on 230 touches the last two season), and lack of receiving prowess (only 7 catches on 11 targets in 2024)

Summary

It was abundantly clear that Bigsby was the far better rusher in 2024, arguably even better than Etienne was in 2023, and despite being apart of the same garbage offense, on top of seeing stacked boxes 5% more often, Bigsby performed measurably better in most rushing categories

Etienne was marred with injuries, so there is an argument to be made he can bounce back in 2025

Given we have a new coaching staff in Jacksonville this year, which I am already viewing as an upgrade for the offense, and with the expectation, based off of some of Cohen's first remarks to the team, they finally address and improve their OL, I believe this offense will be worth investing in

I expect Bigsby to be much more affordable than Etienne with the same level of upside (explosive rushing ability vs pass catching ability) in PPR leagues. If we want to make comparisons to how the Buccaneers backfield operates, I think we can expect Etienne to be the "starter" of the beginning of the season on a 60/40 split with Bigsby, but I think Bigsby can eat into that role and if he continues to out play Etienne in a large enough way, he can overtake that lead back role

Saw a comment regarding Cam Newton having the best season by a player that won't be in the HOF and wondered how true that statement was. Since this is a fantasy football sub, I decided to look at the top 15 PPR seasons all-time by a player not in the HOF. I also excluded any active or obvious soon-to-be HOF players like Brady, Brees, and Julio. Here was my list:

While Cam is "only" 7th on this list, I think he does have a pretty good argument for the best single season by a non-HOF player in NFL history. It pretty much comes down to him and '05 Shaun Alexander. Both players won MVP and led their team to the Super Bowl.

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#Official: [Keeper, Dynasty & Best Ball] - Thu 01/30/2025

#Official: [League, Commissioner, and Platform Issues] - Thu 01/30/2025

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Or maybe you have forgiven them but when someone brings them up, you immediately think of the game you needed them the most and they shit the bed. I'll go first: Justin Jefferson in his OPOY season put up 1 catch for 15 yards in the fantasy championship. Great player and he brought me to the championship, but every time he's brought up I cant let it go.

I wanted to start a series where I take a look at players who will either be competing against one another on the same team, or players that should have similar ADPs in 2025 drafts. I wanted to provide some hopefully insightful data along with evaluation of each player, in order to determine who could be a better fantasy value next season

The first two players in this series will be up and coming Carolina rookie receivers Jalen Coker & Xavier Legette (as well as their QB Bryce Young)

Coker vs Legette 2024 Stats

Bryce Young 2024 Stats

WR & QB Stat Legends

• The Panthers offense could be a decent investment in 2025, as we saw their OL improve measurably in 2024 (8th best run blocking & 14th best pass blocking), along with Bryce Young after being re-named the starter in week 8
  • His massive improvement the latter half of the season makes me optimistic for the entirety of this offense going into 2025
• Bryce Young week 8-17 stats:
  • Great
    • 21.7 PPG
    • 88.9 QBR
    • 223 Rushing Yards
    • 5 Rushing TD's
    • 6.6% Big Time Throw Percentage
  • Good
    • 6 out of 10 of his last games he had PFF weekly Grades of 78+ (Highs of 91.7, 89.3, & 83.9)
    • 27 Passes of 20 yards or more
  • Mediocre
    • 15 to 6 TD to INT Ratio
    • 17.9 Bad Pass Percentage
    • 69.3 Pass Blocking OL Grade
  • Bad
    • 61.8% Completion Percentage
    • 6.6 Yards per Pass Attempt
• In 2024, the two main outside receivers (who finished 1st and 2nd in total snaps this season at the WR position) were Legette and David Moore (Moore only saw a large increase in snaps when Diontae Johnson went to the Ravens and is a FA in 2025 and likely not retained)
• Theilen is the main slot receiver, and will remain so as long as he continues playing at the impressive level he has been lately, despite his age
• Legette is a different story, as I thought he had a pretty disappointing season, especially in the 2nd half
  • He was a 5th year breakout in college, which was a red flag for most people in terms of investing in him (some extenuating circumstances contributed to that 5th year breakout though *dead parents) on top of the fact he was drafted to a team that had one of the worst offenses in 2023
    • Still the WR1 was up for grabs between him, Diontae, and Theilen at the start of the season
  • The only games where he was fantasy relevant were the ones in which he scored a TD (only 4 total), and he struggled heavily with drops all year (wrist injury he's had for years apparently)
  • Most of his stats were either mediocre or worse, and there were not enough flashes of high level play for me to be interested in drafting him in 2025
  • We saw his role diminish the latter half of the season, as he was outplayed pretty handedly by fellow rookie Jalen Coker, and 34 year old veteran Adam Thielen
  • In my eyes, he is a slightly worse version of Keon Coleman, with a less likely chance to be the alpha receiver on his respective team
• There were only a few noteworthy metrics where Legette performed better than Coker in a somewhat statistically significant way:
  • Weighted Opportunities per Game (7.6 vs 5.4)
  • Percentage of Targets per Route (20.9% vs 16.1%)
  • Missed Tackles Forced per Reception (16.3% vs 12.5%)
  • Percent of Team Air Yards (24.7% vs 12.5%)
• These attest to Legette being more of a deep threat on the outside & having more opportunities early on
• Coker was better by almost every significant wide receiver metric outside of those 4, and some where he was in the upper echelon in comparison to the rest of the league
  • Passer Rating when Targeted (111.2)
  • ESPN CS and YAC scores (65 and 63)
  • Average YAC above expectation (2.2)
  • Drop % (3%)
  • Contested Catch Rate (62.5%)
• So by a fairly wide margin, Coker is the receiver I would prefer to draft next season
  • He also passes the eye test in a much more consistent way, and had begun to earn a larger role in this offense down the stretch
  • If David Moore is gone, there would be a need for a WR remain on the field for 2 WR sets, either Thielen or Coker based on the info below (Coker plays out wide more and had the most snaps at the WR position weeks 17 and 18)
  • The 2 games all 4 receivers were healthy (weeks 15 & 17) the snap totals were as follows:
    • Theilen - 42 & 39
    • Coker - 43 & 40
    • Legette - 22 & 32
    • Moore - 28 & 14
  • It is a small sample size, but could be indicative of how the team felt about their receiving core at the end of the season (yes Legette was struggling with some injuries)
• At the end of the day, they are both rookies with a small sample size to go off of
  • We typically see the biggest leap in production and talent in year 2 for receivers
  • Some believe that draft capital is an important metric to consider and players that were drafted higher tend to have a longer leash, and are given a larger number of chances to succeed
    • Interesting article in the Dynasty Football sub reddit last year analyzing the relationship between NFL Draft Capital and WR Fantasy Success

I know it's only the utter degens left surfing this subreddit in January, but you are my people and exactly who I want advice from.

I'm looking for a website or database that can answer this type of question or similar:

Receiver A had 78 catches on 120 targets in his Age 23 season for 1,063 yards and 5 TDs. What other players in the last 20 years had similar Age 23 production as Reciever A?

Ideally the database would then spit out a dozen names that closely align to that production for an Age 23 season so you can see how others fared. For example, If you end up with comp names more like Nacua, Tyreek or Chase you load up on Receiver A. If you get the Gabe Davis' or Golden Tate's of the world, you probably tread lightly.

Less concerned about cost at this time and more about finding out what resources exist. I would then review all options and decide if it's worth paying for.

Making this post after watching him absolutely eat in the playoffs. Does he continue to be a security blanket for Daniels next year like he was this playoffs assuming there are no significant WR adds for Washington? Or does Wash have too much competition for targets

Prepare to set your final fantasy football lineup for the next 9 months

in my best Billy Madison impression For the love of God, cherish it! You gotta cherish it!

Every positional ranking is top heavy but plenty of starters to round things out between the Chiefs and Eagles players

Rankings and brief analysis here: https://fantraxhq.com/super-bowl-lix-rankings-nfl-playoff-fantasy-football/

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#Official: [League, Commissioner, and Platform Issues] - Wed 01/29/2025

DO NOT post Who Do I Start, Add Drop, or Trade questions in this thread; find the appropriate thread within the INDEX.

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The following users have helped the most people in this thread:

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Individual Dynasty or Best Ball threads posted after this point will be deleted in order to keep the subreddit clean. Post here instead! If everyone sorts by new, your questions should be answered.

The following users have helped the most people in this thread:

In 2023, James Cook finished as a top 12 fantasy RB, ranking top 4 in rushing yards and top 8 in RB receiving yards, with 281 touches and 6 total TDs, which was his biggest knock coming into the season. All last offseason, this sub was telling people to fade James Cook because he "doesn’t score TDs." He started the 2024 season with an RB14 ADP on Sleeper.

This season (2024), despite not having the same usage (239 touches in the regular season), he still finished as a top 8 fantasy RB in PPR and top 7 in Standard. Some of that lower usage was due to blowouts and Joe Brady’s questionable 2nd half usage during both the regular season and playoffs. But when you look at his full 2024 stats (including playoffs):

• 1,603 total yards
• 842 yards after contact
• 26 rushes of 10+ yards
• 21 total TDs (huge jump from 6 the year prior)
• And this is on top of Josh Allen’s 12 rushing TDs

Even with 42 fewer touches than in 2023, he completely erased the "James Cook doesn’t score TDs" narrative.

So the big question: Will Cook still have an outside top 12 ADP going into 2025? Where are you drafting him next year?

-There’s no reason to doubt Mike Evans in Fantasy Football.

-Evans once again finished with over 1000 yards receiving this season, something he’s now done every year he’s been in the NFL, and he finished as the WR14 overall averaging 17.2 fantasy points per game.

-It was quite an effort by Evans, who missed 4 games this season due to injury but it didn’t matter.

-Evans will once again be a high end WR2 with WR1 upside in 2025 Fantasy Football Drafts.