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r/DynastyFFTradeAdvice a dedicated subreddit for individual team help questions.
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This subreddit is a dedicated place for questions and discussion about Dynasty Leagues. Learn about Dynasty Fantasy Football and its strategies or just have a discussion about it.
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It’s Week 11 and a lot of leagues are hitting the trade deadline. I’m sure a lot of Derrick Henry owners are staying put with a comfortable lead in the league standings, but there are probably other teams who are facing longer odds at playoffs and a championship despite rostering the King.
I’ve been going back and forth all week about moving him in one league where my roster is middle of the road but not quite strong enough to compete. Can I count on Henry to be a key piece in the next 1-2 seasons as I try to build things up? Or is it better to seek out draft picks and get younger (but, really, does Henry actually age?)? In other leagues, you can’t pry him away from me.
What are other dynasty players doing right now as we move down into the stretch?
I needed to vent a little. I joined a keeper league with my fraternity brothers three years ago. And our commish has a vote system. If you want changes, the league members vote on it. Well the first round of our playoffs is week 13 because they want two week rounds, which is ridiculous. I’ve asked to change it before each season and it always gets voted down because some think that “anything can happen in a week so it should be two weeks so we know the best team makes it through” Are you serious? Teams are going to have players on bye during week 14 so if that team loses because his best players have a bye, then how did the best team win? I have a pretty solid team but I lost Rashee Rice and Godwin so instead of having those two and AJ Brown at WR & flex and Achane and Breece Hall at RB I have Brown and Downs at WR and Tillman in the flex this week so I have to win this week and next to make the playoffs. If we had made the playoffs a week long instead of two, I’d have four games to move up in the standings. Some of the guys in the league are legit but the rest just don’t understand what’s going on. Sorry for rambling. I always get pissed this time of the season because of this ridiculous playoff format.
In Dynasty, the conventional wisdom has been that RB performance drops off a cliff sometime around age 27 or 28. Based on what we're seeing this season, it seems like that cliff might actually be around age 29 or 30.
In PPR leagues, the top four RBs in points per game are Derrick Henry (30.9 years old, 2300+ career touches), Joe Mixon (28.3 years old, 2000+ career touches), Saquon Barkley (27.8 years old, 1600+ career touches), and Alvin Kamara (29.3 years old, 2000+ career touches).
Other high-performing RBs in the top 24 over the age of 27 include Aaron Jones (29.6 years old, 1600+ career touches), James Conner (29.5 years old, 1400+ career touches), David Montgomery (27.4 years old, 1400+ career touches), and despite a small sample size, CMC (28.0 years old, 1800+ career touches).
For the last two years, the Dynasty community has referred to Derek Henry as a unicorn due to his longevity, which is largely ascribed to his size. But I'm wondering if this is a general trend we're seeing in football, where top-tier RBs are able to perform at a high level into their late twenties / early thirties due to advances in sports medicine.
Obviously there are some RBs who don't support this theory - such as Zeke (29.2 years old, 2400+ career touches), Dalvin Cook (29.4 years old, 1500+ career touches), and Leonard Fournette (29.0 years old, 1400+ career touches). But it seems like there might be a trend of RBs eking a couple more years of high performance out of their careers.
I don't actually have any sources to support this, and I know this is a relatively shallow analysis. The post is meant to start a conversation about how we should evaluate aging RBs.
Especially with the news of Richardson back "playing QB" for the Colts... lol. But of course he had a decent game last week, I just wonder if he's destined to be buried behind Pittman/Downs, and to a lesser extent, Pierce. Does he have a chance of emerging as the #1 there next season, maybe with a QB change? I'm worried that Downs has emerged and both Downs and Pittman are signed through '27.
Not to make this about my team, but I already have a bunch of #2 WRs and am wondering if he's worth taking up the space or is just the definition of a roster clogger.
Fantasy for Real is a twice weekly podcast covering major topics surrounding the QB, WR, RB, and TE positions.
This full episode can be found here:
https://cjfreel.substack.com/p/63-nflcfb-reactions-week-10-is-young
I'm dialing it back just a bit this week and am not doing a full risers post (I also did not feel strongly about players necessarily moving through tiers). Will still have a Mock Draft post either tomorrow or Friday, but it will be a bit different as well; I will be using Dane Brugler's 2025 Mid-Season Big Board as a guide for Draft Capital ranges.
//
Concerns with Cam Ward?
Cam Ward once again put up phenomenal box score statistics, and while Miami lost to Georgia Tech, he remained 4th in Heisman Odds and 3rd in 1st Overall Pick Odds. Anecdotally, we can point to the fact that Ward crucially fumbled the ball later in the game giving the win to Georgia Tech, but the issues go far deeper.
It is important to point out right away that there is a middle ground between 2023 Cam Ward and the hopeful #1 Overall Pick version; Ward could have easily improved substantially from 2023 to 2024 and still not be the kind of profile teams want to take very early in the draft. And I do believe Ward has improved. This past week, Ward passed his career high in total Big Time Throws in a season with a few games left to play. In his first season in particular, Ward struggled with Big Time Throws and creating them with any frequency. He has now improved in each of the last two years.
However, almost all of Cam Ward’s improvements this season outside of Big Time Throws are condensed into his first four games. In these first four games, which include FCS Florida A&M, Ball State, and South Florida, Cam Ward played phenomenally in terms of what I would consider “clean football.” Since Week 4 however, Ward has largely regressed to the exact same QB he was last year.
In the first four games of the season, Cam Ward’s Big Time Throw : Turnover Worthy Play ratio was 11:2, or 5.5:1 on average. In general, those 2 TWPs over four games were an even more noteworthy improvement for Ward, and would equal a TWP on only 1.5% of dropbacks. Prior to 2024, Ward’s best 4-game stretch in the FBS still had 4 TWPs. Ward took only 2 sacks and his 6.3% Pressure-to-Sack% in the first four weeks was elite. And while he did have an over 3 second Time to Throw against Florida, the other three games (against lesser competition) he kept it to right around 2.6. These numbers discussed in this paragraph, carried out over an entire season, would mark an elite QB at least in terms of performance. The trouble is that all of these numbers have substantially regressed to Ward’s career norms.
We have 6 games now since this initial 4 game sampling, so this is a fairly large sample of games that equals roughly half a College Football season. In this half season, Ward’s BTT:TWP play ratio has dropped to 14:11 or 1.3:1. Ward’s 11 TWPs in 6 Games is notably high, and would be a TWP on about 4.0% of dropbacks. Ward’s P2S% has also increased, taking sacks on 21.6% of pressures the last six weeks, which would drop Ward from near the top of the leaderboard to the bottom third. Finally, Ward’s rough time-to-throw during this period is above 3 seconds. While it was above 3 against Florida, those four games in general averaged out to about 2.8s, which is far healthier than the ~3.05 he sits on the last six weeks. In the same way that the numbers discussed in the previous paragraph, carried out over an entire season, would mark an elite QB, these numbers suggest a substantial number of flaws and faults that also align with Ward’s pre-season grading.
Cam Ward notably is the only player I am aware of to initially (at least publicly) make a declaration for the 2024 NFL Draft and then eventually walk it back, and I followed the news there pretty closely as I will this year as I was trying to make sure I was prepared to talk about the proper players of the class. My presumption, which I do believe is shared by many, is that Cam Ward wanted to enter the NFL and was told he would not like where he would get drafted. This is (very loosely at this stage) backed by some rumors that his pre-draft estimate was closer to the 5th Round. Regardless, the greater point is that it definitely seemed like Ward returned to college out of necessity for his stock. In that guise, I think it is important to note that we need Ward to be substantially better than he has been before.
Ward is still importantly avoiding the spirals. In previous years, when he started to make mistakes, more mistakes came, and they were catastrophic. To be fair, he did have a catastrophic turnover against Georgia Tech, but even in this game his overall performance individually was not bad and had plenty of positives to take away from it. Ward is also still improving in accessing his arm down the field. However, it would currently be my contention that all of the things that caused Ward to get that 5th Round grade are currently festering at a rate higher than the general consensus is giving it credit for.
There are still similarities in the breakouts of Jayden Daniels and Cam Ward, but notably there is another, scarier comparison that has started to come to mind more and more: Malik Willis. (Note: Willis+Daniels are both mobile, but mobility is not a similarity here). Now Ward is playing head & shoulders by even my own account above Willis’ final year with Liberty, but Malik Willis was a QB who rose to be the favorite for the #1 overall pick mid-season and then constantly could not get out of his way down the stretch of the season. In an open 2022 class, he failed the final tests significantly. I’m not sure Ward is outright failing, but in a similar fashion he is substantially in his own way at this point.
Ultimately, fan bases who need a QB won’t like to hear this or will simply hope I am wrong, but Cam Ward is firmly a QB who I would consider in the late-1st in the NFL or the early-mid 1st in Fantasy, but I just struggle to see the player that many are excited about taking in the top 5, or even top 1-3.
//
Bryce Young Update
On a post last week, the number one development with Bryce Young identified was his Pressure-To-Sack% and the improvement in that metric. Because this is a fairly stable statistic, it is one that was also highlighted to monitor moving forward. Young once again evaded sacks at a very high level this past Sunday, taking a sack on his very first dropback, but only that 1 sack on 15 Pressures.
Before these last 3 games, in his career, Young was sacked 69 times on 277 Pressures (24.9%)
In the last 3 games, Young has been sacked 4 times on 37 Pressures (10.8%). Last year, the fewest sacks Bryce Young took in a 3-Game period was 9.
There are only 2 QBs in the NFL this year who have started at least 7 games and have a better than 10.8% P2S%, Derek Carr & Jordan Love. This is a number that has a prior for Young dating back to college, so the improvements are encouraging both due to that prior and the quick stability of the metric.
//
As always, will be off-and-on to answer Questions.
Thanks,
C.J.
Me and a buddy are co-commissioning a dynasty league and set a rule that redrafts would occur after that jackpot is payed out, which requires a team to win 2 years a row. Our intent is that this would take years of building a solid team and that redrafts would happen every 6-10 years at LEAST. We also had this in place tow prevent someone drafting really well (or getting lucky) and being overly dominant for years.
Bad news is, we’re only 2 years in and it looks like the guy who won last year will likely win again (1st is 9-1 with 1566 PF, 2nd is 6-4 with 1345 PF; single QB, no super flex, PPR). Obviously our intent wasn’t to redraft in the first 2 years and we don’t want this to be a reoccurring pattern.
How do your leagues handle redraft frequency? Any recommendations? The league is open to changing the rule somewhat going forward.
Edit: everyone in the league was aware of the redraft rule since the very beginning, but also didn’t expect it to possibly happen in year 2. Also didn’t realize “empire league” was the correct term here, my mistake.
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All individual help belongs within this post or in r/DynastyFFTradeAdvice (24/7 DYNASTY ONLY Trade and Team help sub) if you would rather not use a mega-thread. Please include as many details in your post as possible!
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https://www.footballguys.com/stats/snap-counts/teams?team=NE&year=2024
Take a look at these snap count numbers for the patriots wrs 👀. Sure seems like boutte could a solid sleeper down the stretch here , especially in deeper leagues. Pretty surprising considering all the investment in wr they have made , but I'm picking him up in anything over 12 teams atm.
Looks like he got more work last week and was efficient with his touches, which is a positive. Possibly they are just easing him back from injury, and the volume/production should go up from here, especially with Tank nursing an ankle injury. The Jaguars just look like a trash organization though.
What’s your outlook for him going forward? Buy, sell, or hold?
(12-team/single QB) I'm in a predicament where I have Bijan Robinson and Jamarr Chase and then basically nothing of value after that. Currently in 7th place and could push for a playoff spot but I think I'd rather retool. Would you trade someone of Bijan or Jamarr's stature for a King's Ransom if you were in my position?
A lot of people are sitting right in that 5-7 range in their standings right now and are trying to determine if they should push all-in to make a run at the championship or if they should sell and punt to 2025.
What advice do you have for teams trying to wade through their options before their trade deadline/the playoffs?
Cousins is performing good (as he always has done) and not really showing a decline because of age and 3 other years left in his contract (although he only gets this and next year in guarantees).
The Falcons have a young ish team that should have a good window this next couple years.
Penix is already a not so exciting "game breaking" QB. What should we truly expect from him? I don't own him anywhere but maybe he could be a buy as a rebuilder? His price has basically stayed the same (a mid 2nd) and it seems that if he becomes the starter he would be pretty solid low qb2, which if becomes a stable starter for the future should be valued around a mid 1st?
That seems as a good investment, but I feel that it might take too long for it to become profitable and that it might even just not happen altogether or just be another Mac Jones or something like that.
Trade Value Tuesday - Week 11
Price Check Tuesday - Week 11
Price Check Tuesday - Week 11
It’s a wrap on week 10 so that means that it’s time for price check Tuesday!
Rules:
I see you guys talk like a late first or a second round pick is a valuable asset, but I’ve been looking at my league’s old drafts and the hit rate after pick 5 is way lower than you think, basically turns into a crap shoot real quick
Unless I’m doing a full rebuild, I’m always looking to flip my late 1sts and 2nds into actual players.
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Hey all,
Welcome back to the next part of my midseason scouting series. Today, I’ll be covering the top 15 wide receivers for the 2025 NFL draft. Similar to my midseason quarterback and running back rankings, these rankings aren’t as in-depth as my final rankings but I still wanted to put them together to get an assessment of the class. Also, like my other midseason rankings, I have comps for my top 5 backs as well.
With the way it's hard to keep up with all the wide receivers throughout all of college football, be sure to let me know who you think I’m too high or too low on or if there is anyone you think should have been included that wasn't.
Also, you can check out my rankings video on YouTube with this link if you want more details on the players or my rationale for the rankings/strengths+weaknesses/comp: https://youtu.be/98zZlsnzZeA
If you missed my QB or RB rankings, I have the posts and the playlist for my YouTube series linked below:
QB Post: https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/1gk73xf/backseat_scouts_top_15_2025_qbs_with_comps_for/
RB: Post: https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/1glriy5/backseat_scouts_top_20_2025_rbs_with_comps_for/
Midseason Scouting YouTube Series Playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLFxtpUJ0f4zlo0mpkFFlloLVABhZiC6J_
Now let’s get to the rankings!
Jack Bech, TCU Horned Frogs
Height: 6’2” Weight: 215 pounds
Age on Draft Day: 23 Years and 2 Months
Class: RS Senior
2024 Stats:
Previous Key Matchup Stat Lines
Vs Utah:
Vs Houston:
Vs SMU:
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Nick Nash, San Jose State Spartans
Height: 6’3” Weight: 195 pounds
Age on Draft Day: 24 Years and ??? Months
Class: Sixth-Year Senior
2024 Stats:
Previous Key Matchup Stat Lines
Vs Oregon State:
Vs Fresno State:
Vs Washington State:
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Tez Johnson, Oregon Ducks
Height: 5’10” Weight: 160 pounds
Age on Draft Day: 22 Years and 11 Months
Class: Fifth-Year Senior
2024 Stats:
Previous Key Matchup Stat Lines
Vs Illinois:
Vs Ohio State:
Vs Michigan State:
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Kaden Prather, Maryland Terrapins
Height: 6’3” Weight: 210 pounds
Age on Draft Day: 22 Years and 7 Months
Class: Senior
2024 Stats:
Previous Key Matchup Stat Lines
Vs Oregon:
Vs USC:
Vs Indiana:
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Elijhah Badger, Florida Gators
Height: 6’2” Weight: 190 pounds
Age on Draft Day: 22 Years and 8 Months
Class: RS Senior
2024 Stats:
Previous Key Matchup Stat Lines
Vs Georgia:
Vs Tennessee:
Vs Texas A&M:
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Antonio Williams, Clemson Tigers
Height: 5’11” Weight: 181 pounds
Age on Draft Day: 20 Years and 9 Months
Class: RS Sophomore
2024 Stats:
Previous Key Matchup Stat Lines
Vs Louisville:
Vs North Carolina State:
Vs Georgia:
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Tai Felton, Maryland Terrapins
Height: 6’2” Weight: 181 pounds
Age on Draft Day: 22 Years and 1 Month
Class: Senior
2024 Stats:
Previous Key Matchup Stat Lines
Vs Oregon:
Vs USC:
Vs Indiana:
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Ricky White III, UNLV Rebels
Height: 6’1” Weight: 190 pounds
Age on Draft Day: 23 Years and 2 Months
Class: RS Senior
2024 Stats:
Previous Key Matchup Stat Lines
Vs Boise State:
Vs Oregon State:
Vs Syracuse:
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Kyren Lacy, LSU Tigers
Height: 6’2” Weight: 213 pounds
Age on Draft Day: 24 Years and 4 Months
Class: Fifth-Year Senior
2024 Stats:
Previous Key Matchup Stat Lines
Vs Alabama:
Vs Texas A&M:
Vs South Carolina:
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Tre Harris, Ole Miss Rebels
Height: 6’3” Weight: 210 pounds
Age on Draft Day: 23 Years and 2 Months
Class: Fifth-Year Senior
2024 Stats:
Previous Key Matchup Stat Lines
Vs LSU:
Vs South Carolina:
Vs Kentucky:
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Isaiah Bond, Texas Longhorns
Height: 5’11” Weight: 180 pounds
Age on Draft Day: 21 Years and 1 Month
Class: Junior
2024 Stats:
Previous Key Matchup Stat Lines
Vs Georgia:
Vs Oklahoma:
Vs Michigan:
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Xavier Restrepo, Miami Hurricanes
Height: 5’10” Weight: 198 pounds
Age on Draft Day: 23 Years and 0 Months
Class: Fifth-Year Senior
2024 Stats:
Previous Key Matchup Stat Lines
Vs Duke:
Vs Louisville:
Vs California:
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Jayden Higgins, Iowa State Cyclones
Height: 6’4” Weight: 215 pounds
Age on Draft Day: 22 Years and 2 Months
Class: Senior
2024 Stats:
Previous Key Matchup Stat Lines
Vs Texas Tech:
Vs Houston:
Vs Iowa:
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Evan Stewart, Oregon Ducks
Height: 6’0” Weight: 175 pounds
Age on Draft Day: 21 Years and 7 Months
Class: Junior
2024 Stats:
Previous Key Matchup Stat Lines
Vs Michigan:
Vs Ohio State:
Vs Boise State:
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Jalen Royals, Utah State Aggies
Height: 6’0” Weight: 195 pounds
Age on Draft Day: 22 Years and 2 Months
Class: Senior
2024 Stats:
Previous Key Matchup Stat Lines
Vs UNLV:
Vs Boise State:
Vs Utah:
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Elic Ayomanor, Stanford Cardinal
Height: 6’2” Weight: 210 pounds
Age on Draft Day: 21 Years and ??? Months
Class: RS Sophomore
2024 Stats:
Previous Key Matchup Stat Lines
Vs SMU:
Vs Notre Dame:
Vs Clemson:
Comp:
Michael Crabtree
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Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State Buckeyes
Height: 6’1” Weight: 205 pounds
Age on Draft Day: 22 Years and 4 Months
Class: Senior
2024 Stats:
Previous Key Matchup Stat Lines
Vs Penn State:
Vs Oregon:
Vs Iowa:
Comp:
Khalil Shakir
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Luther Burden III, Missouri Tigers
Height: 5’11” Weight: 208 pounds
Age on Draft Day: 21 Years and 4 Months
Class: Junior
2024 Stats:
Previous Key Matchup Stat Lines
Vs Alabama:
Vs Texas A&M:
Vs Vanderbilt:
Comp:
Brandon Aiyuk
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Travis Hunter, Colorado Buffaloes
Height: 6’1” Weight: 185 pounds
Age on Draft Day: 21 Years and 11 Months
Class: Junior
2024 Stats:
Previous Key Matchup Stat Lines
Vs Cincinnati:
Vs Kansas State:
Vs Nebraska:
Comp:
Garrett Wilson
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Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona Wildcats
Height: 6’5” Weight: 212 pounds
Age on Draft Day: 22 Years and 0 Months
Class: Junior
2024 Stats:
Previous Key Matchup Stat Lines
Vs BYU:
Vs Utah:
Vs Kansas State:
Comp:
Drake London
Looking to verify a few things and get some insight from Steelers fans and those who are following the coach speak and vibes around Najee, as I have not.
I believe Najee is an unrestricted free agent after this season?
What are our vibes on the Steelers desire to resign him or do we think Jaylen Warren could get his rank moved up as the 1A or better next year?
I know it's anybodys guess but the Steelers have a strong fanbase, so I imagine there are some knowledgeable opinions on the future standings of if Harris is wanted back or if the Steelers would let him walk due to cap space or his play.
Dynasty owners, what are the hopes after the season?
What's your crystal ball say about Najee?
Let’s say you are in a 12 team SF TEP league with large starting lineups and are one of the top 2-3 teams in the standings. For purposes of this discussion, we will hypothetically say that you are weak at whatever position you are looking to trade for.
Who is the worst player at each position that you would agree to trade your 2025 1st in a straight up one-for-one trade for? In this hypothetical, you’re only looking to trade for win-now guys (ie you aren’t trading the first for a decent rookie on the upswing, only a piece focused on winning this year). Looking for a QB, WR, RB, and TE. Curious to hear everyone’s answers!
As title discusses - finally got touches, did fine against a pretty strong running defense in the chiefs, and is now been said to get more touches.
Positives - touches, not many negative plays, good defense so close games for usage
Negatives - bad offense, low enough draft capital to be replaced next year, no pass catches
Are you tempted to take a 2nd round re-roll, or are you thinking he has reasonable RB2 potential?
Trying to figure out how much FAAB to spend on a scrub who scored two TDs?
Trying to add on to your roster in a playoff push?
Please keep all waiver wire related questions in this thread.
Examples are:
Welcome to the Daily Trade and Team Help Megathread!
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All individual help belongs within this post or in r/DynastyFFTradeAdvice (24/7 DYNASTY ONLY Trade and Team help sub) if you would rather not use a mega-thread. Please include as many details in your post as possible!
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After yesterday’s poor offensive showing against an Eagle’s defense that’s at best, middle of the pack, we saw what Ceedee’s future might hold.
As a contender with Ceedee, are you attempting to sell to a rebuilder with some kind of young WR who can help you in the playoffs? Why? Why not?
What’s the move?
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