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Syndicate Sports Live until lock show is live on Youtube! We go over every position and give our favorite plays of the day including a Core to build around! Join us and ask any questions you have for the slate!
We broke even last night, but the Starting Five for yesterday basically went out the window as expected with all the injury news. Hopefully tonight goes better. I went with a no nonsense approach and I fully expect this to be my core for tonight so fingers crossed! With that said... Our December 3rd Starting Five is now LIVE! Check it out for a look at my favorite plays at each position on Draftkings for tonight's spooky slate. As always, if you want to support me, letting DFS Hero become your home is certainly the way to go. Everything they offer from ownership, projections, an optimizer and a contest simulator is unmatched for the price. Just hit the link below if you want to check it out, but as always never any pressure. It is just the best way to support me (and my new family haha).
Previous Day Recap:
Analysis: I am in a full on slump. Granted I did say news could ruin a lot of the Starting Five and it did, but these guys were some cheeks yesterday. 4 game slates can be tricky and you basically had to have Giddey and Vuc with the Coby White OUT news, Jaime Jacquez with the Butler OUT news and Payton Pritchard with the Jrue Holiday OUT news. I had the opposites (Lavine/Herro/Bam/White) which went absolutely nowhere. I guess that is what I get for getting cute. We move onto what looks like a better slate today.
No LaMelo Ball, Tre Mann or Miles Bridges. He is going to have to play 30+ minutes and has been scoring quite well in this same scenario the last few games. He has 23 and 37 DK points in the two games without all 3 and against Philly tonight I expect similar results. I know the Matchup Table doesn’t really favor him, but it can’t take into account pricing which is the main reason for Micic. He is far too cheap for the role he has tonight.
Honorable Mentions:
Let’s just go ahead and take the other Hornet who is going to be a usage monster. Miller without both Bridges and Ball has a usage rate average of 35%. That is absolutely insane. Yes this is a slower paced matchup against Philly, but they actually have the 11th worst SG DvP which is Miller’s primary position. He just scored 56 DK points in 39 minutes against Atlanta last game with both out and I could see it happening again for him. With Embiid out, the Sixers are a lot more vulnerable defensively and just on usage alone Miller should be able to get his buckets. As long as this game doesn’t end something like 100-90, Miller should smash.
Honorable Mentions:
He has 45+ DK points in 5 straight games, is priced well below his ceiling and is in a great matchup against Indiana who has had a bottom 3 defensive efficiency this season. He is kind of a unicorn in the sense he plays a bunch of different positions so looking at DvP data isn’t really worth it. I just really like this game environment for him. DFS Hero is projecting him for big ownership (as does Miller and Micic), so you will need to find a low owned leverage play to pair with him, but I think he is the chalk you want to take tonight. Without Quickley, he is just on another level and the last 4 games against Indiana he has scored 48+ DK points with a ceiling of 67 DK points in their last matchup. Lock and load on Barnes tonight.
Honorable Mentions:
For starters, he gets to face off against Washington who is 2nd in pace and dead last in both overall defensive efficiency and PF DvP. This is literally the best matchup possible for Mobley. He is coming off of a poor game against Boston (that is to be expected), but prior to that had 47 and 60 DK points against Atlanta which is a similar matchup. This feels like the perfect ceiling opportunity for Mobley and with a few other value PFs + Giannis taking up ownership, I can’t envision his will get too high. I think he is a good leverage option that allows you to get a piece of the highest projected scoring total team on the slate in Cleveland.
Honorable Mentions:
My stand tonight is going to be playing Wemby as my spend up even with Luka and Giannis on the slate. First off, they are giving him massive minutes which is exactly what you need to see from Wemby. If he is out there on the court, he is going to put up numbers. He gets to face off against Phoenix which might be a slight pace down spot, but they do have the 7th worst defensive efficiency this season. Now the real kicker is Nurkic is out, so he is going to be drawing coverage from both Mason Plumlee and Oso Ighodaro. I see no reason he can’t abuse that matchup. The icing on the cake: The Suns allow the 4th most points to Cs this season. If he is going to get efficient scoring opportunities then sign me up. I have some concerns that the Bucks and Giannis blowout the Pistons and the Mavs and Luka will struggle against Memphis who is great defensively and finally has their team back to full strength (minus Edey). Wemby is in a very good scoring environment and has the ceiling plus he is coming off of an 80 DK point performance against the Kings. He is hot and you are getting a little bit of savings off of Giannis and Luka with Wemby so I am rocking with him tonight.
Honorable Mentions:
Thanks and good luck!
-Kyle
Looks like there are some pretty good matchups on this week's slate. But what do I know? I'm just a robot!
Helpful Resources
Scores, Matchups, Odds & Expert Picks at Covers.com
Lineup Rewind - Historical NBA data
Looks like there are some pretty good matchups on this week's slate. But what do I know? I'm just a robot!
Scores, Matchups, Odds & Expert Picks at Covers.com
early video, have to get a root canal super early tomorrow. Hope u all had a great night. cashed yesterday but i def wont be cashing tonight but ill recap it tomorrow. little nice 7 gamer for tomorrow with a lot of upper mid range nukes that i love.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wn0dFgOgKcA&feature=youtu.be
Edit: Jerome out - i really like caris levert
Edit: dick out - love all main raps in top 3 guys. walter fine value
Edit: sixers starting KJ, hes fine but sixers getting healthier with there depth guys so not confident in minutes
Edit: goga scratched. need to see who starts in his place but i love wcj now. Mo wagner/isaac now good values to. id assume silva starts not a huge fan there
Syndicate Sports Live until lock show is live on Youtube! We go over every position and give our favorite plays of the day including a Core to build around! Join us and ask any questions you have for the slate!
Wish I got last night's showdown out in time, but with only 30 mins I forgot to post it here. My opto had a good read on that game and grabbed 5 of the 6 plays! Cant expect that to happen every night, but hoping it can show us the way
I have a disturbingly low projection on the Browns yet I'm tempted to play a few anyways. Denver Defense is otherwise interesting. Check out the post here, as time permitting, I intend to throw updates out there primarily. https://x.com/dfsedric/status/1863703280871768258
Hey all, just got back into DFS sports (4 year hiatus). Was wondering what your guys’ favorite research tool is currently?
My overall top GPP play:
Courtland Sutton – He leads the team in target share and gets a favorable defensive matchup in this one. He has one of the highest ceilings on this slate and I like his chances to have a big game.
My overall top Cash play:
Bo Nix – He’s had a solid season, and I look for that to continue tonight. Can make it happen with the arm and with the legs. The defensive matchup doesn’t scare me. Solid floor and should be a lock in cash games.
To access the ranking of my Top 3 GPP CPTs (along with my Top Contrarian GPP CPT), my full GPP player pool, the ranking of my Top 3 Cash CPTs, my full Cash player pool, a detailed strategy for approaching this game from both a GPP and Cash perspective, and much more, then please join at http://www.patreon.com/JaySpeaking (The first seven days are free!)
NBA DFS Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel 12-2-24 can be used for the 4 games today. FantasyTeamAdvisors is very excited to be able to provide you with some NBA content once again. Let’s dig in!
Make sure to also check out all the Vegas Odds for today’s slate. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for sites like FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sports, too. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @advisors_team
FAVORITE VALUE PLAYS
Keon Johnson
Mike Conley
Jalen Wilson
Naz Reid
Today's Video: https://youtu.be/3Dv20Tmtf1w
Fantasy Points Allowed: https://fantasyteamadvisors.com/nba/nba-pts-allowed-by-position/
NBA Vegas Odds: https://fantasyteamadvisors.com/nba-vegas-odds/
Join the discord to grow the community! https://discord.gg/86jqRZAm
Our discord has daily CORE plays for both FD and DK around an hour or 2 before the slate locks.
Hi all,
Please let me know in comment if you would be interested. Then I'll reach out to you as soon as its ready for testing, and I have implemented all the feedback (which I hope to get).
Also please let me know in comment why (not) you would not be interested :-)
I am thinking of publishing an app which lets users "test bet" with "credits/tokens" instead of real money.
The concepts would be that the odds are based on what the community (i.e. other users of the app) has been betting on a specific game, so you basically bet in part vs the community.
I would love to include leader-boards/streaks etc, but would of course need some users for this to be meaningful.
What do you think? How could this be of interest to you (if at all).
Thanks!
Hope this post is OK here. The matches would be soccer matches only. Probably top 5 leagues or something. And NO "real" betting
The weather should be playing a factor in this game a little more than we are used to. They were already buried in snow earlier this weekend, and we shall see conditions during the game. Let's dig in.
FAVORITE CPT/MVP PLAYS:
1.) Courtland Sutton
2.) Bo Nix
3.) Jameis Winston
4.) David Njoku
5.) Jerry Jeudy
DATA FROM LAST SEASON TIL NOW:
84% of winning lineups have contained at least 1 QB
6% of winning lineups have used the whole $50,000 salary cap
16% of winning lineups have had a $200 player
80% of winning lineups have had a player $4000 or less
Stack percentages*
3-3: 36%
4-2: 44%
5-1: 21%
Captain percentages
WR – 39%
RB – 28%
QB – 17%
TE – 7%
DST – 7%
K – 2%
Happy Monday!
We have four games with 5/8 teams on second legs of back-to-backs & plenty of news to sift through as the day goes on.
Tap in with us at Fantasy Alarm, toss us a thumbs up & be sure to leave a comment with any questions you may have as well! LET'S GO
Small slate tonight with what feels like a million Q tags so this article could go in the waste bin by lock. However, I think we picked out some strong plays for tonight regardless of the news so just stay fluid and make late swap your friend. With that said... Our December 2nd Starting Five is now LIVE! Check it out for a look at my favorite plays at each position on Draftkings for tonight's spooky slate. As always, if you want to support me, letting DFS Hero become your home is certainly the way to go. Everything they offer from ownership, projections, an optimizer and a contest simulator is unmatched for the price. Just hit the link below if you want to check it out, but as always never any pressure. It is just the best way to support me (and my new family haha).
I need to start off by saying we have numerous teams on a back to back tonight and there are a crazy number of Q tags with only 4 games so just stay fluid! Starting with the Nets, they will be without Cam Thomas and Dorian Finney Smith tonight + there are a few other guys questionable like Ben Simmons, Cam Johnson and Ziaire Williams which could open up a massive amount of minutes. Say all 3 of those Q tags play, we should still see Keon Johnson play somewhere around 30 minutes. He has gotten 32 and 28 in the last two games with Cam Thomas out and scored 25+ DK points in both as well. The price tag is just too cheap for the production. Then you have to factor in that they are playing the Bulls who are 2nd in pace, have the 3rd worst defensive efficiency and have the 2nd and 1st worst PG and SG DvP this season. This is a smash spot for the value guard who can make a lot of other spend ups fit into your lineup. This feels like a no brainer to me and smash play if others sit as well.
Honorable Mentions:
Even with the bad implied matchup, Knecht feels like a great play at this price tag. He is starting, playing over 30 minutes/game and Austin Reaves just got hurt last night and could miss tonight. The usage rate has been there and he opens up so much for the Laker’s offense they pretty much have to leave him out there. He underperformed last night, but that was much due to his shot just not falling and he was in foul trouble. They face the Wolves tonight which on paper looks bad. However, they are bottom 12 in SG and SF DvP which are Knecht’s typical positions. DFS Hero is projecting him to be one of the highest owned SGs on the slate, but I think it comes down a hair just based on the matchup and taking the chalk isn’t always a bad idea in NBA DFS.
Honorable Mentions:
SF feels tricky tonight, so I am going to trust the early projection for Murphy here who is one of DFS Hero’s core plays tonight. For starters, he faces Atlanta in a big time pace up spot against a bottom 10 defense who has the 2nd worst SF DvP this season. The set up is perfect for him to have a good game. He has also been playing well with most of the starters back in the rotation as it takes some of the attention off of him. 33+ DK points in 4 of the last 6 games with a ceiling of 43 DK points is definitely a good return on investment. Everything looks to be aligning for Murphy to have another great game and him also having the highest SF optimal rate using the DFS Hero data just confirms it for me.
Honorable Mentions:
This could definitely change come lock with Johnson questionable. However, with Cam Thomas out he has been one of the focal points for scoring for this Nets team. He gets to face the Bulls who are terrible defensively, run at a very fast pace and have the 3rd worst PF DvP this season. This whole Nets team will be vying for a ton of usage and it seems Cam Johnson gets the first crack at it with Schroder running the offense most nights. The price tag is a bit steep, but just based on the matchup and current role he should be able to pay it off nicely.
Honorable Mentions:
C is kind of loaded tonight, but that alone should keep ownership levels fairly flat for the position. I know I want someone from Atlanta and Onyeka feels like the piece for me. He has a better optimal rate than Capela who is $600 more expensive and actually seeing fewer minutes than Okongwu this season. The Pels have a bottom 5 defensive efficiency and the 8th worst C DvP, so the matchup is great. Even with him coming off the bench, he can still score very well and if he does end up having the better game than he should close which is valuable in its own right. He is cheap and playing great basketball right now. Even with him being volatile at times, I am willing to take the risk when the reward is quite high.
Honorable Mentions:
Thanks and good luck!
-Kyle
Looks like there are some pretty good matchups on this week's slate. But what do I know? I'm just a robot!
Helpful Resources
Scores, Matchups, Odds & Expert Picks at Covers.com
Lineup Rewind - Historical NBA data
Been a fantastic few days for myself, hope you all have been crushing as well.... Strap the fuck in boys, Tomorrow is most likely going to be a crazy slate with a lot of teams on b2bs and an absolute shit load of rest candidates, Not to mention the entire nets team got injured tonight and the lakers on a b2b with half the team out. Ill make updates as always.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSiiGAXRSdU&feature=youtu.be
Edit: Bulls update - Coby is OUT - ayo looks fantastic but him vs pritch is a coin flip for me. Craig i suspect starts and is a fair value. THT viable large field dart. Giddey, Lavine, Vuc are all good PPD plays
Edit: lakers update - Reaves is OUT - Dlo looks amazing for value, Bump to rui and knecht both solid PPD plays. AD/lebron don't change for me
Edit: Nets update - Cam johnson OUT - Dennis piss missle. Love watford/Keon johnson. Also think shake milton is really good again that will go over looked. Dayron sharpe not as good for me in gpps anymore but still like in larger stuff and fine in SE. Jalen Wilson now very solid. Tyrese martin in play
Edit: ingram out - love murray
Edit: Jaime starting. he now looks like one of the better PPD values on the slate
Edit: Lineup alert: Nets will start Schroder, Keon Johnson, Tyrese Martin, Wilson, Claxton on Monday.
Starters my fav values
My overall top GPP play:
Christian McCaffrey – CMC has one of the highest ceilings on the slate. He’s always a dual threat back that can pile up the points with how he’s utilized and he’s practically matchup proof when he gets going and Buffalo has struggled against RBs. The CMC breakout game is coming soon.
My overall top Cash play:
Josh Allen – He’s a cash game lock with his rushing floor and the matchup is favorable as the Niners are dealing with some defensive injuries.
To access the ranking of my Top 3 GPP CPTs (along with my Top Contrarian GPP CPT), my full GPP player pool, the ranking of my Top 3 Cash CPTs, my full Cash player pool, a detailed strategy for approaching this game from both a GPP and Cash perspective, and much more, then please join at http://www.patreon.com/JaySpeaking (The first seven days are free!)
Drummond rolling his ankle 4 minutes into the game just crushed me last night but those are the breaks. Keep chugging along, nothing we can do about those types of things. As always you can find me here on Reddit or Discord for any questions on the slate you may have. Also offer projections as well that have been really solid this year. LINK!! and first 7 days are free to try everything out!
It's also Sunday NBA, there is usually some unexpected guys that sit out and shenanigans that happen on Sunday NBA games so this all may be redundant by lock but it is what it is.
EDIT: Well, we got some of it already I will be editing part of this soon. Thanks Dallas! I doubt we get the final pieces here out of them in the next 40 minutes so I'd be ready to fire up the guys mentioned.
OKC has to face a tough HOU team who doesn't give up a lot on defense. If anything there is some rim funneling but teams are not very efficient vs them anywhere. I like Hartenstein and Cason Wallace a bit now, some of Shai, J-Dub, and Dort but it's really not a spot I'm getting to much of anyone. At the moment Hartenstein and Wallace are simming out as some expsosure but that is due to Hartensteins hot start inflating his fppm numbers and Cason is popping due to lack of value and sims trying to get to Jokic as he's only projecting for 19.09 @ 3.8k right now.
HOU also facing an elite defense here vs OKC. You can probably get to some 3pt shooters here if you wanted HOU players, Sengun is also okay, I do like some Dillon Brooks right now due to him being so cheap and a lack of value but that probably comes down as news breaks. I don't mind Jabari even though he's had a pretty rough season so far, FVV is okay, Sengun and Green are okay. This side of this game is coming with some pretty heavy ownership at the moment that I'm honestly okay fading due to the defense they play but they do have a lot of good mid-range options and someone has to score points.
Lakers get the awful HOU defense, this is def a spot to target. Utah gives up a lot of blocks, a lot of steals, and a lot of points.....it's just a bang up spot for AD on the surface and my projections mirror that. You can really get to anyone in this game, Lebron is also good as an option, Reaves is okay, Knecht is in a smash type of spot and he's cheap. I don't mind Rui and even Max Christie is popping as an option. My fav two plays here are AD and DK.
Not a lot to love here from Utah but the Lakers do give up some points to guards and around the rim shit but all the Utah guys are priced appropriately. If I get to anyone it is probably going to be Markkanen or Keyonte George.
I do like this spot for the Spurs, Sacramento gives up a lot of 3's and mid range stuff. That and projections really have Wemby and CP3 as good plays and I'm also getting to some Champagnie and Castle at a lesser rate right now. I think this game should stay competitive enough and the total is on par with the other games tonight (no real outliers anywhere). It's really going to come down to a choice between AD and Wemby if my spendup falls in the 10k's for me.
Sacramento is just okay here, the Spurs have a completely different defense when Wemby is in and they're all kinda priced up. If you do get to the big dawgs here I think you play a max 1 of Sabonis, Fox, and DDR. Keegan Murray, Monk, and Keon Ellis are in play but really just middling plays I won't ever have a bunch of.
Well we got our news here, Naji, Lively, and Klay are out. Kyrie is now Questionable, Luka is still questionable. I doubt we get much out of them before lock here on the other two dominoes but I would be ready to fire up PJ, Gafford, Grimes, Dinwiddie, and Hardy. Maxi Kleber could get some more spot minutes but he usually does fuck all with them.
Ayton and Simons are both projecting well here for Portland tonight but carry some ownership. I'd be more on the Ayton play than Simons especially if Scoot is playing it just gets their guard rotations so thin and spread out. Avdija is in play here but Dallas is really stingy to 3pt shooters so not getting to a lot of him by any means as he's reliant on that.
Jokic, Jokic, Jokic.......who the hell can guard him from the Clippers? On a shorter slate raw points are pretty valuable. He's over 20% owned at the moment and if more value opens up that will climb higher. I won't say he's a must play, AD or Wemby could maybe get close to him but I'll def have around 20-30% in my MME sets. Not huge on the rest of the team here, I don't think they are bad plays but not any gotta have them type plays. Murray, Porter are okay and Braun is okay as long as he's not getting cooked on defense chasing people around screens. He won't close games when people run a lot of that stuff but I don't think he will have a lot of issue with that tonight. LAC can funnel the 3pt ball some but are stingy vs it which could help MPJ but he's just a whatever play.
DEN gives up a high rim efficiency and a high assist %. Norm Powell might be back which again kills DJJ and Coffey if he's in. I don't mind Zubac but he's going to be high owned and his minutes aren't always secure. I think Dunn is in play but he's mainly in play due to lack of value right now. He's projecting for 21.1 pts at 4100 which is solid for value right now as none have opened up. I always have Norm Powell shit listed but he's been okay.......Harden is underpriced at 9200, it's just a salary fit thing with him.
Hi everyone! I’m curious—what stats or data points do you rely on the most when making your picks? Do you focus on recent performance, matchups, advanced analytics, or something else entirely?
The reason I ask is that I run Propcaster, a platform dedicated to helping bettors research and analyze player props more effectively (only NBA right now but 100% free). It’s been a passion project of mine, and I’m always looking for ways to fine-tune the tools and resources we offer our end users.
Right now, we’re pulling in stats like: • Player averages over the last 5/10 games with a given prop (25.5 Points, Rebounds, Assists, etc) • Player performance this season (Over/Under Performing based off last year’s performance)
But I know there’s always room for improvement. I’d love to hear from you guys—what must-have stats or insights do you think are missing in most player prop tools? What helps you feel confident when locking in a pick?
Your feedback would mean a ton as I work to make my site the best it can be!
The weather should be playing a factor in this game a little more than we are used to. They were already buried in snow earlier this weekend, and we shall see conditions during the game. Let's dig in.
FAVORITE CPT/MVP PLAYS:
1.) CMC
2.) Josh Allen
3.) James Cook
4.) George Kittle
5.) Khalil Shakir
DATA FROM LAST SEASON TIL NOW:
84% of winning lineups have contained at least 1 QB
6% of winning lineups have used the whole $50,000 salary cap
16% of winning lineups have had a $200 player
80% of winning lineups have had a player $4000 or less
Stack percentages*
3-3: 36%
4-2: 44%
5-1: 21%
Captain percentages
WR – 39%
RB – 28%
QB – 17%
TE – 7%
DST – 7%
K – 2%