/r/stocks
The most serious place on Reddit for Stock related discussions! Don't hesitate to tell us about a ticker we should know about, market news, or financial education.
Check out our WIKI that has beginner & advanced topics on both investing & trading.
Almost any post related to stocks is welcome; please read the rules below:
Click here to find how many days old your account needs to be and how much karma you need before you can comment or post to r/Stocks.
Disclose any related open positions when discussing a particular stock or financial instrument.
Spam, ads, solicitations (including referral links), and self-promotion posts or comments will be removed and you might get banned. Instead, advertise here.
Context & effort must be provided; empty posts or empty posts with links will be automatically removed. Low effort mentions for meme stocks will be removed, see here.
The Robinhood app should be discussed in /r/Robinhood. Posts regarding this topic will be automatically removed.
Trolling, insults, or harassment, especially in posts requesting advice, will be removed.
No bitcoin or crypto discussions unrelated to stocks. Non-ETF-related Crypto goes on r/CryptoCurrency info.
No penny stock discussions, including OTC, microcaps, pump & dumps, low vol pumps and SPACs. Consider posting to r/SPACs, r/pennystocks, or r/weedstocks instead. Read here for more info.
Almost any post related to stocks and investment is welcome on /r/stocks, including pre IPO news, futures & forex related to stocks, and geopolitical or corporate events indicating risks; outside this is offtopic and can be removed.
*logo by u/aDrunkLlama. Link to logo
/r/stocks
Hey everyone. I'm a 17, almost 18 year old business student. I have a few hundred dollars that I'm willing to spend, but I'm unsure of what exactly to buy. Any recommendations? Any good beginner stocks? I know about how it all works. But I just want to know what to actually get shares in.
Thanks!
Will we be following this process every 30 days continuously for the next four years
What you guys thoughts about this.
Do we repeat this every 30 days for the next four years ....Will we need to continue doing this every 30 days on an ongoing basis for the next four years?
Comment your thoughts and let us know
I did a quick and dirty DCF valuation for TSLA, and here’s what I found. I don’t own TSLA individually; I only have exposure through the S&P. However, with recent events, I’ve been wondering why people hold TSLA.
My typical process when looking into a company starts with a DCF to gauge approximately what the company should currently be valued at. I know, I know, it’s not perfect, but it’s a way to get started.
For TSLA, I averaged the last three years of free cash flow (FCF) at about $5.1 billion. I used a 5% FCF growth rate and a terminal growth rate of 3%, along with a discount rate of 12%. All these estimates are generous for a few reasons: the share count is increasing, FCF has declined over the past three years, and the risk is high.
With these assumptions, I came up with a value of $26.24, which is only 6.85% of the current price. This means that 93% of the value is based on future growth and speculation.
Now, many people assume that Tesla will revolutionize humanoid robots and self-driving cars, so I took a more optimistic approach to the DCF. I used a 20% FCF growth rate and a terminal growth of 7%, which is probably unrealistic. Using the same discount rate, I arrived at a value of $52.62. This represents 13.74% of the current value, meaning 86.26% is based on even more future growth and potential.
With all that said, it’s hard for me to understand what people see in this company. Or am I just thinking the wrong way, and it has nothing to do with making money?
Congrats to all the long-term holders who have made a killing! I’d love to hear your thoughts on this.
As mentioned, I've been w/a big Wall Street firm for decades, which means that I have a lot of restrictions on what I can write publicly. But pretty sure this story is fine, since the company is long gone.
An old, but true, story. It is represents much of what I went through in the late 1990s, in the midst of the dot com bubble.
eToys was an online toy retailer that did an IPO in January 1999 for $20 per share. By the end of the day, it closed at $76 per share.
I received a call from a client, who was probably in her late 70s at the time. She mostly bought blue chip stocks, utility stocks, preferreds, and tax-free bonds.
The conversation went something like this...
Client: SJ, I want to buy a stock.
Me: OK, what are we looking at?
Client: It's called eToys. They sell toys online. They are going to be the next Toys R Us, only bigger!
Me: (Looking things over)
Me: You know, they did their IPO at $20 and the stock is now at $80?
Client: I know, they're doing very well!
Me: The stock is doing very well, but I'm not sure that the company is doing too well. They are new and unproven and they don't have anything resembling a profit or net income. Why do you want to buy this thing?
Client: My son-in-law recommended it. He is a very smart young man!
Me: Well, he may be smart, but I also know that son-in-laws can get you in a lot of trouble. How many shares are you considering?
Client: I want to buy 1,000 shares!
Me: That's $80,000! (A lot of money now, but really a lot back in the late 1990s).
Client: I know. I have a lot of confidence in eToys and in my son-in-law!
Me: Can I talk you out of buying this stock?
Client: No, I've made up my mind.
Me: Are you open to a compromise?
Client: What do you have in mind?
Me: Instead of buying 1,000 shares of eToys, let's buy 50 shares instead.
Client: 50 shares? But that's only $4,000!
Me: I know, but I'll feel a lot better watching you lose $4,000 than I would if you lost $80,000.
(Long pause)
Client: Ok, do it. Buy me 50 shares of eToys!
I bought the shares, the company went bankrupt, and she lost all of her money. But again, a $4,000 loss beats the heck out of an $80,000 loss!
Here's why I think it's a good value among high-growth equities on surface level.
Overall, I am very bullish on this in the long term [5 years] and believe it's a great value in a tech space that seemingly gets more expensive every day. I will continue to DCA this company through dips.
Risks:
"There's an old saying in Tennessee, I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee, that says "Fool me once, shame on...shame on you. Fool me...you can't get fooled again. "
Cheers
Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/03/trump-canada-tariffs-trudeau.html
Text:
President Donald Trump on Monday agreed to pause the implementation of planned tariffs on imports for at least 30 days, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said.
The pause was announced in a tweet by Trudeau hours after Trump and Mexico’s president said Trump would pause for one month planned tariffs on imports from Mexico.
Trump on Saturday said he would impose 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, and 10% tariffs on goods imported from China.
Palantir reports Q4 2024 revenue growth of 36% Y/Y, U.S. revenue growth of 52% Y/Y; Issues FY 2025 revenue guidance of 31% Y/Y growth, eviscerating consensus estimates.
U.S. commercial revenue grew 64% y/y and 20% q/q and U.S. government revenue grew 45% y/y and 7% q/q.
We generated an adjusted operating margin of 45%, increasing our Rule of 40 score to 81% in Q4 2024. We also generated $1.25 billion in FY 2024 adjusted free cash flow, with $517 million (63% margin) in Q4 2024.
Our GAAP EPS of $0.03 in Q4 2024 was in-line with analyst estimates, and our Adjusted EPS of $0.14 outperformed analyst estimates by 27%. For FY 2025, we expect revenue of $3,741 - $3,757 million, $206 - $254 million above current analyst estimates of $3,503 - $3,535 million.
What other software company is capable to hold this growth rate?
Based on an analysis of 167 public saas companies trading on NYSE/NASDAQ, looks like the average revenue multiple (calculated as market cap over annualized last quarter revenue) is 7.58x while the median revenue multiple is 5.45x as of February 1st 2025.
Month-over-month (comparing February 1st 2025 to January 1st 2025) the average multiple is significantly up from 7.28x (~4.1% MoM growth) and the median multiple is also significantly up from 4.81x (13.3% MoM growth)
Palantir and SoundHound AI are big outliers, both trading at over 50x annualized revenue, while other SaaS top performers are in the 20-25x annualized revenue range.
Link: Stock market today: Live updates
The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Monday staged a major comeback, recovering steep losses from earlier in the day after the U.S. and Mexico said tariffs against the trading partner would be paused for one month.
The 30-stock average was last up 24 points, or 0.1%. At its lows of the day, it was down 665.6 points, or 1.5%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite traded well off their lows as well, last down 0.4% and 0.8%, respectively.
The iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (EWW), which tracks Mexican stocks, rebounded to trade 2% higher.
Stocks initially dropped Monday after President Donald Trump hit Canada and Mexico with a 25% levy on imported goods. The U.S. also issued a 10% tariff on Chinese goods. The news sparked a major global sell-off, with equities in the U.S. and abroad tumbling.
But a post from Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbuam following a conversation with Trump sparked appeared to calm investors.
“We had a good conversation with President Trump with great respect for our relationship and sovereignty; we reached a series of agreements,” Sheinbaum wrote in a post, according to a translation from Spanish.
Trump later confirmed the temporary deal on Truth Social. “It was a very friendly conversation wherein she agreed to immediately supply 10,000 Mexican Soldiers on the Border separating Mexico and the United States,” wrote Trump, adding that negotiations for a more permanent deal would continue for the month.
The pausing of the tariffs on Mexico reinforced the bullish view of some investors that tariffs for all countries could be Trump’s negotiating tool and that investors shouldn’t overreact initially.
“Call us deluded, but we still think that permanent tariffs on the U.S.‘s allies (Canada, Mexico) will not be a thing,” said Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie. “That’s because concessions are an ‘easier’ way to deal with Trump’s ‘problems’ (from a cost-benefit and game-theoretic perspective), and Trump likes to make ‘deals’. Political and market pressure will also weigh on the parties to make concessions, as in 2018.”
Trump’s tariff plans could weigh on economic growth and cause inflation to jump, Wall Street economists warn.
Morgan Stanley economists estimate that “US Inflation could be 0.3 to 0.6pp higher vs baseline over the next 3-4 months (putting headline PCE inflation at 2.9% to 3.2%) and US growth could be -0.7 to -1.1pp lower vs baseline over the next 3-4 quarters (putting real GDP growth at 1.2% to 1.6%)” if tariffs are fully implemented and not temporary, strategist Michael Zezas said in a note to clients.
You get to hold 33.3% in each of the stocks and you have to hold for 10 years, no buying/selling or opportunities for trading. Which stocks are you picking?
For me, I would probably do MSFT as one pick since I see them expanding offerings in the future particularly if AI takes off but don't have a solid pick for the other two lol
U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Monday ordering the U.S. Treasury and Commerce Departments to create a sovereign wealth fund and said it may purchase TikTok.
"We're going to stand this thing up within the next 12 months. We're going to monetize the asset side of the U.S. balance sheet for the American people," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters. "There'll be a combination of liquid assets, assets that we have in this country as we work to bring them out for the American people."
Trump had previously floated such a government investment vehicle as a presidential candidate, saying it could fund "great national endeavors" like infrastructure projects such as highways and airports, manufacturing, and medical research.
Details on how exactly the fund would operate and be financed were not immediately available, but Trump previously said it could be funded by "tariffs and other intelligent things." Typically such funds rely on a country's budget surplus to make investments, but the U.S. operates at a deficit.
There are over 90 such funds across the world managing over $8 trillion in assets, according to the International Forum of Sovereign Wealth Funds.
TikTok, which has about 170 million American users, was briefly taken offline just before a law requiring its Chinese owner ByteDance to either sell it on national security grounds or face a ban took effect on Jan. 19.Trump, after taking office on Jan. 20, signed an executive order seeking to delay by 75 days the enforcement of the law.
Trump has said that he was in talks with multiple people over TikTok's purchase and would likely have a decision on the popular app's future in February.
I saw this between 2016-2019, Apple used to go down big time whenever there was a China tariff announcement and then it used to come back up after a month since tariffs were cancelled or lowered.
For insiders to benefit from this up and down since they know in advance what the real policy would be, someone has to lose, right?
Are the losers who sell stocks after tariff announcements and maybe the insiders buy stocks on the dip and sell after recovers, rinse and repeat?
So, if we all just hold stocks as per our risk appetite and time horizon, and do not get shaken by this on and off abrupt policy announcements which get rescinded, we will be fine right.
IMO, this is not the time to hold leveraged positions(option credit spreads or stocks on margin or selling puts on margin) because you may get liquidated and your account will go to zero.
I am sitting on 60% cash equivalent and will buy more stocks if we get 10-20% discounts.
I work at Sephora which is owned by LVMH, and they’ve offered all employees 20% off plus they matched up to 2 stocks with a maximum of 3 (so most you can get is 5, 2 of them free). I decided to do it, and it’ll cost about $1,600, but I haven’t wired the money over yet. Does this seem suspicious at all, like they’re doing something sneaky? I don’t really know much about stocks or the stock market so I just want to be sure. Thanks in advance for any advice
Today was a great example of the volatile environment equities are in. There’s a lot to react to, there’s a lot of potential headwinds, and equities have held at or near ATHs. So without getting into any broad predictions, this is clearly a time where money can be made. Volatility brings the chance for significant dips, and the market resilience brings the chance for quick recoveries. While anything can happen, I think it’s always wise to have a watchlist ready to seize buying opportunities.
So with that said, what do you all have on your watchlists? Are there any companies you are waiting for drops to buy up? Do you see some good values now? I few names I have on my watchlist:
Dell
FedEx
Docu
Mu
And if there are very sizable pullbacks:
JPM
Sofi
Cost
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/02/03/mexico-president-tariffs-00202059
Trump, in a post on Truth Social, confirmed the one-month delay, which he said he granted the country after it agreed to send 10,000 soldiers to the U.S.-Mexico border. A White House official confirmed the one-month extension only applies to Mexico, not Canada or China, which Trump also slapped with tariffs over the weekend.
Could the same happen with Canada?
NSSC earnings are out and very mixed.
Net sales of $43.0 million decreased 9.7% YoY
Recurring service revenue ("RSR") increased 14.4% to $21.2 million
Gross profit margin of 57.0% vs 52.6% in prior fiscal year quarter
Diluted EPS of $0.28 vs $0.34 in prior fiscal year quarter
The Board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.125 per share, payable on April 3, 2025 to shareholders of record on March 12, 2025.
Management offered the following as commentary:
"As we complete the first half of Fiscal 2025, our performance has yielded mixed results. Our RSR increased 14.4% to $21.2 million and generated a gross margin of 91%, which was an improvement on last year's RSR margin of 90%. RSR represents 49% of total revenue in Q2 and our RSR had a prospective run rate of approximately $86 million based on our January 2025 recurring service revenue. For the quarter, our overall gross margin improved by over 400 basis points to 57.0% compared to 52.6% last year. The reduction in our equipment revenue was a result of lagging sales in intrusion and access alarm products and door locking devices, primarily as a result of reduced sales to two of our larger distributors, one of which we were informed made a corporate-wide decision to pull back on all purchases in an effort to reduce overall inventory levels, and a second distributor who is going through a management restructuring, which we believe delayed the authorization to approve transactions and resulted in reduced purchases. In addition, the timing of new project work for custom locking products has resulted in reduced sales of locking devices through Q2 of Fiscal 2025. In Fiscal 2025 we are completing a project related to a significant New York City building renovation which began in fiscal 2024. While we were disappointed in our overall equipment sales, we attribute the decline to timing and based on historical purchase activity of our largest distributors we anticipate improvement in equipment sales through the balance of Fiscal 2025."
I'm still digesting this, but hardware sales down, recurring SAAS revenue up, but not enough to compensate.
Disclosure: I'm long NSSC.
The S&P 500 spent 2023 & 2024 bouncing back from terrible performance in 2022 and I’ll be completely honest: I don’t feel good about index performance during Trump’s term. I’m naturally worried about my $VTI shares and I’m re-allocating what my 401K is invested in.
I’ve already paused my professionally managed brokerage account contributions (going to my HYSA & tax lien purchases instead) so I can just let the $xx,xxx I have ride out the market during his time in office.
I’m going to take the money I have in a money market fund and put it in $SQQQ for the time being.
Is anyone else doing something similar?
This will be an interesting year for sure! I expect lots of turmoil and changes.
I'm interested to hear what people's high level plans are.
Mine is:
a) Take some profits of anything that is sitting at a multi-year high to build up some cash.
b) Wait for different sectors to be systemically undervalued due to temporary events.
c) Buy a basket of stocks in b)
I'm hoping there are some 2020 meltdowns. That period was a real opportunity for generational wealth creation and I took advantage of it, but I wish I had done more so.
I am personally disgusted with the tactics of this moron. Seeing federal workers be put on leave for defending our systems from those who aren’t cleared makes me so angry. Not to mention the salute, helping drum up tariff wars, aligning with the far right, attacking his own kids. I am wondering if I can call Vanguard and/or Blackrock and have an index fund free of Elon. I am sure it must exist somewhere.
I’m sorry I am a total noob in stocks and investing. I have a question regarding VOO, I was looking through it and it says that returns in the year 2023 = 26.06% However dividend yield is 1.21%
What do these terms mean?
Let’s say I put $100 , do I get 26.06% = $126?
What about dividend yield.
I have always struggled to place a valuation on this company. Every time I’ve tried to value it, I come to the conclusion that it’s overvalued so I avoid buying it, and then the stock just goes up and up and up.
Business model-wise it’s fantastic - leading player in its industry, high margins etc. but I struggle to get to 2.9 trillion in market cap given the amount of free cash flow the business is generating isn’t even 1/10th of that.
Anyone have any tips or insights on how to approach it?
Right now the only reason why I’m tempted to buy the stock is because it’s a great business that’s fallen significantly from its ATH, but even that’s not a sufficient reason for me to buy it because my gut feeling tells me that there is still no margin of safety.
Sometimes I think I’d be a lot wealthier if I didn’t follow Graham/Buffett principles 😂
These daily discussions run from Monday to Friday including during our themed posts.
Some helpful links:
If you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.
Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky..
See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.
I am wondering will the stock start falling and should I sell it? Seeing as there will be tariffs that are quite large on the chips from Taiwan, plus the other tariffs on Chine which makes up a huge part of the market of Broadcom? On Friday they were up by a bit but had started falling down, so I am not sure if they will keep at about the same price, or will they fall off dramatically?
Rate My Noob Portfolio
Just getting into learning about stocks and I think I’ve found the portfolio percentages I’m interested in, at least for starting out; any constructive criticism or feedback would be appreciated (22/yo and not exactly rolling in cash)
50% VTI, 25% VXUS, 10% AVUV or some other small cap ETF, 10% IHI (medical devices), 5% COPX (copper) also thinking about just doing the 5% in bonds
Maybe I should just take the 10% in medical devices etf (IHI) and make VTI 60%?
Hey there friends. I'm writing today to highlight a growing risk to the global financial system, and looking to gather thoughts. My concern is that current policy and trade stances set up a very dangerous scenario.
Starting point: Right now, major US banks are likely sitting on roughly $500 billion in unrealized losses, potentially more. Q3 data, showed $364 billion in unrealized losses, which likely reinflated back to near the 1/2 trillion figure given the increase in rates. Sadly, the Fed discontinued its data series on aggregate losses in 2022 as URLs were spiking. Anywho, the losses gained marginal attention until SVB imploded. Nothing prevents this from happening to larger institutions if we get a more severe shock to interest rates. Furthermore, URL figures can be somewhat masked by moving securities from available-for-sale to held-to-maturity buckets, with varying degrees of supervision. These losses just hang out until the bonds mature, get sold, or the bank goes insolvent. At these levels we're fine, but I'm going to tell you why this likely gets worse.
Upcoming interest rate shocks:
Tariffs-These will increase inflation over the long-term, meaning bond investors will demand more return on capital.
Flight to safety-Political instability means that US Treasury debt will no longer be considered a safe haven asset for a few reasons. Overseas investors with whom we've actively engaged in tradewars could opt to simply sell or not reinvest in US bonds, putting upward pressure on yields. Unelected foreign nationals accessing the entire US Treasury payment network with no idea how many backdoors are included, makes repayment much less likely from an investor's standpoint. Also, Trump's long-standing approach to debt is to say Eff you, why would this change now? These risks have never been present in the US rates market, and will demand more compensation from investors.
US Dollar-Labor and raw material challenges arising from the new administrations policy, combined with bullying others away from using the dollar as a global currency will reduce demand further, as we will simply not need to be traded with.
Now, if the banks are sitting comfy now with $500 billion or so unrealized losses (probably more), do they start to sweat if rates reach something like 8, 9, 10% on a 10-year UST? Probably not, because they're insolvent and are no longer a going concern. I could tie this into insurers and credit unions as well. The underlying concern is systemic. So many of these institutions are holding utter garbage in the form of 10/20/30 years bonds that were purchased at yields you'd find on a milk carton.
Recovery: The failure of even one or two institutions can have huge effects as we've seen with the 2008 crash, late 1990's collapse of LTCM, and bank runs in the Great Depression. Digging out of this hole requires enormous regulatory, monetary, and political/fiscal will and coordination. Barring massive changes in the coming weeks, I simply can't believe we are in a position to address this kind of challenge.
Also, the answer is not simply to have the Fed lower rates, controlling the overnight rate does nothing here, and likely makes long-term yields go higher. Open market operations on the scale needed would dwarf 2008.
I welcome any comments or challenges, and may God have mercy on us all. Thank you for coming to my Tedtalk.
Their dominance in the high-end/premium 5G chipsets won’t go away any time soon. So their profit margin and operating cash flow will be strong for the foreseeable future,
What do you think on their expansion/penetration into personal computer chips and automotive segments?
Are they getting solid reactions? Collaboration with Honda and Mahindra could be game changers?
I’m not memeing or joking— I’m seriously wondering if now is a good time to short stocks. I know depending on one's personal situation and investment horizon, buying things like VOO and VTI and holding for a long time are the most stable investment. However, I’ve been seeing articles about hedge funds betting against the market, and with the new tariffs, it seems like the economy is going to take a hit. Are there specific sectors or stocks that look particularly vulnerable to being shorted? Or is the market still efficient enough that this information is already reflected in the stocks since we knew tariffs were imminent? Interested in everyone's thoughts.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/02/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
Stock futures tumbled Sunday night to kick off a new trading month as investors weighed new U.S. tariffs on goods from key trade partners and their potential impact on the economy and corporate profits.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 611 points, or 1.4%. S&P 500 futures dropped 1.9%, while Nasdaq-100 futures lost 2.4%.
Fairly mild reaction overall, I think Wall Street is still thinking this is a bluff and the tariffs won't actually go into effect on Tuesday. We will see what happens tomorrow
EDIT: Title of the article was updated, now the drop is only 450 points lmao
You can talk all day about the bubble in the U.S. stock market—and you’d be absolutely right. A 37x P/E ratio is a lot. It’s absurdly high. Why? Because the average market isn’t made up of mid-growth tech unicorns. It’s mostly mature companies that won’t deliver the kind of revenue growth or margin expansion needed to justify such lofty multiples.
But let’s take a look at history—specifically, the Japanese stock market around 1985. The P/E ratio was also hovering around 37x back then. Bubble? Yep, definitely a bubble. It was fueled by the belief that Japan’s economy was just about to explode into eternal prosperity. And those beliefs stuck. How do we know? Because from 1987 to 1990, the P/E ratio soared to nearly 70x, and between 1993 and 1995, it pushed close to 90x. That’s a whole decade of people doubling down on the same narrative.
Could the U.S. bubble inflate even more? Absolutely. As long as the narrative holds strong in people’s minds, there’s no limit. In fact, in the midst of global economic chaos, the perception of the U.S. as a “safe haven” could drive valuations even higher. Because when it comes to market euphoria, stupidity knows no bounds.
Sorry for pumping an obvious one, but it's a leading cybersecurity company with a strong market position, at juicy 25 f-PE ratio, in a high growth industry.
Robust Financial Performance: The company reported better-than-expected fiscal Q1 2025 results, with revenue of $2.14 billion, surpassing analysts' estimates, and a significant profit increase to $350.7 million.
Platformization: Palo Alto Networks is implementing a platform strategy, consolidating multiple products under one vendor to simplify customer experience, which has led to substantial customer adoption and upselling.
Industry Leadership: The company holds the largest market share in the cybersecurity industry, positioning it to benefit from the increasing demand for cybersecurity solutions.
Innovation: Palo Alto Networks invests heavily in research and development, focusing on integrating artificial intelligence and machine learning to enhance its cybersecurity offerings.
Stock Split to Enhance Accessibility: The company has done a 2-for-1 stock split, aiming to make shares more affordable for retail investors and increase liquidity.