/r/thetagang

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We are selling options to WSB degenerates using thetagang strategies! 🐌 🐌 🐌

We are selling options to WSB degenerates using #thetagang strategies! 🐌 🐌 🐌

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Visit r/thetagang/wiki/index for an introduction to thetagang strategies.

/r/thetagang

244,256 Subscribers

0

Will letting credit spreads expire release my collateral or should I close them?

Hey yall sorry new to trading this strategy

8 Comments
2024/11/01
19:11 UTC

0

How to effectively get interest on cash by selling put options

3 Comments
2024/11/01
19:05 UTC

0

Anyone Using AI Tools for Options Analysis? Found This Interesting

0 Comments
2024/11/01
17:31 UTC

1

How to Think About Returns When Risk & Capital Tied Up Don't Line Up

I was doing a bit of modeling on vertical put spreads when I came across this.

Say you sell a put on a stock at $500 strike for $22 of premium and buy a put at $400 strike for $2. All for exactly 1 year from now to keep the calc simple

Net, you are walking away with $2K. Your risk is $8K. Is your return 2/8=25% or is it 2/50=4%?

To add another scenario; what if you are trading on margin and your margin requirement is 24% on the short leg meaning you have to post around 12K? Is your return now 2/12=16.67%?

I am inclined to go with measuring return based on risk, so 25%. But It seems a bit too good, so would like others' thoughts on this.

2 Comments
2024/11/01
16:07 UTC

28

Next Week Earnings Releases by Implied Movement

4 Comments
2024/11/01
16:02 UTC

4

2024 Progress Month 10: +$4.9k realized (+3.42% NLV)

Summary of Plan:

  • Initial Capital $300k
  • Monthly return goal $7K (2.3% per month / 28% per year on Initial Capital)
  • Strategy, selling options on futures (Strangles, Ratios, Wheel micros)
  • Keep BP below 50%
  • Goal: Consistent Income

Previous months NLV fluctuation:

  1. +3.72%
  2. +4.10%
  3. +2.12%
  4. -1.14%
  5. +3.85%
  6. +4.23%
  7. -0.11%
  8. -2.02%
  9. +0.79%
  10. +3.42%

https://preview.redd.it/ei8xoa398byd1.png?width=1321&format=png&auto=webp&s=d8938c9fdb08d179416866bd3a36991f85ed0da5

https://preview.redd.it/8ukpixkb8byd1.png?width=2329&format=png&auto=webp&s=b0414cb820c938b838291e1a6168d4ee3dec6b3b

https://preview.redd.it/u7akvo1a8byd1.png?width=796&format=png&auto=webp&s=be074ddfb510440b9270b3272da21755180b8934

I have been posting every month this year, and will continue to post, good or bad for the whole year.

Another uneventful month leading up to the election. Had to close 1 loser (a strangle in Agg). Unfortunately this impacted my return for the month, normally i have a cushion so that 1 or 2 losers will still leave me with my goal, but since I am transitioning to my other account, I have been light on BP usage over all.

I have been implementing some Back Ratios to lessen the Vega/Vomma exposure on multiple underlyings, but I'm still playing around with those and trying to understand the best way to place them. I had 2 that I closed this month (just because they were in profit) while opening up more to keep a hedge on, moving the strikes around to try and model something that would lessen my total exposure.

Also, found an issue in my return graph on the report. I'm pretty sure it is because I am missing a day or 2 on my Journal where I wasn't able to log my day.

I'm finding it interesting on days like today to look at my B&H portfolio and compare the fluctuations with this account. Makes me feel better about this income account. Today I was down like 1.9% in my B&H, while I was only down .6% in this account.

Thanks for reading. Ask any questions below and I will try my best to answer them.

Happy trading.

Link to my report in the comments.

0 Comments
2024/11/01
15:41 UTC

10

How long to hold a SMCI put?

Long time options lurker, that finally bought my first Put on SMCI. My Put expires on November 8th, so my question is how long do I hold?

I assume if the stock gets delisted before then, my Put is worthless? Given that SMCI is giving a "financial update" on November 5th, do I hold until then? I assume its terrible news that they are trying to hide by releasing on Election Day of all days.

Any advice would be helpful!

18 Comments
2024/11/01
14:44 UTC

3

Guides for managing short straddles?

I want to learn more about selling straddles - the pros/cons of different DTEs, how to manage them when they go against us (like when to go inverted), when to take profits, when to cut losses, etc.

I've been searching Reddit and YouTube, but there doesn't seem to be a lot of solid info out there. Most content talks about strangles, and mostly only talks about straddles as a trade you "wind up in when a strangle goes against you".

Thanks!

8 Comments
2024/11/01
14:30 UTC

12

Best options to sell expiring 49 days from now

Highest Premium

These options offer the highest ratio of implied volatility (IV) relative to historical volatility (HV). These options are priced to move significantly more than they have moved in the past. Sell iron condors on these as they may be over priced.

Stock/C/P% ChangeDirectionPut $Call $Put PremiumCall PremiumE.R.BetaEfficiency
AMGN/340/310-0.27%-19.37$15.52$11.321.671.49950.791.8
DFS/160/1454.43%26.83$8.5$5.551.621.48820.9389.0
SPGI/500/4700.94%-33.3$9.05$8.51.461.4970.6582.3
REGN/880/8300.76%-120.97$24.5$30.61.381.38N/A0.6779.3
NUE/150/1350.82%-13.77$4.25$5.21.331.41900.7290.7
COF/175/1552.59%46.47$5.6$4.81.391.32830.8588.4
STZ/240/2251.14%-38.21$4.9$5.61.381.27630.4990.6
COP/115/105-2.35%-11.98$2.94$2.31.391.17N/A0.3586.3
FSLR/220/1900.7%-56.02$14.73$14.681.251.311171.3492.2
CTRA/25/231.21%-9.8$0.68$0.551.341.21N/A0.6579.8

Expensive Calls

These call options offer the highest ratio of bullish premium paid (IV) relative to historical volatility (HV). These options are priced expecting the underlying to move up significantly more than it has moved up in the past. Sell these calls.

Stock/C/P% ChangeDirectionPut $Call $Put PremiumCall PremiumE.R.BetaEfficiency
AMGN/340/310-0.27%-19.37$15.52$11.321.671.49950.791.8
DFS/160/1454.43%26.83$8.5$5.551.621.48820.9389.0
NUE/150/1350.82%-13.77$4.25$5.21.331.41900.7290.7
SPGI/500/4700.94%-33.3$9.05$8.51.461.4970.6582.3
REGN/880/8300.76%-120.97$24.5$30.61.381.38N/A0.6779.3
COF/175/1552.59%46.47$5.6$4.81.391.32830.8588.4
FSLR/220/1900.7%-56.02$14.73$14.681.251.311171.3492.2
STZ/240/2251.14%-38.21$4.9$5.61.381.27630.4990.6
NTR/52.5/450.67%0.17$1.05$0.981.291.26N/A0.6387.5
TMUS/230/220-0.07%40.25$5.03$4.51.291.23830.2590.0

Expensive Puts

These put options offer the highest ratio of bearish premium paid (IV) relative to historical volatility (HV). These options are priced expecting the underlying to move down significantly more than it has moved down in the past. Sell these puts.

Stock/C/P% ChangeDirectionPut $Call $Put PremiumCall PremiumE.R.BetaEfficiency
AMGN/340/310-0.27%-19.37$15.52$11.321.671.49950.791.8
DFS/160/1454.43%26.83$8.5$5.551.621.48820.9389.0
SPGI/500/4700.94%-33.3$9.05$8.51.461.4970.6582.3
DOW/52.5/47.5-0.24%-74.11$1.23$0.441.430.99900.5673.5
AFL/110/1002.29%-45.14$1.7$1.71.411.14910.4588.2
KO/67.5/62.50.77%-66.65$0.66$0.721.411.061030.1794.2
COF/175/1552.59%46.47$5.6$4.81.391.32830.8588.4
COP/115/105-2.35%-11.98$2.94$2.31.391.17N/A0.3586.3
STZ/240/2251.14%-38.21$4.9$5.61.381.27630.4990.6
REGN/880/8300.76%-120.97$24.5$30.61.381.38N/A0.6779.3
  • Historical Move v Implied Move: We determine the historical volatility (log variance of daily gains) of the underlying asset and compare that to the current implied volatitlity (IV) of the option price. This is used to determine the Call or Put Premium associated with the pricing of options (implied volatility).

  • Directional Bias: Ranges from negative (bearish) to positive (bullish) and accounts for RSI, price trend, moving averages, and put/call skew over the past 6 weeks.

  • Priced Move: given the current option prices, how much in dollar amounts will the underlying have to move to make the call/put break even. This is how much vol the option is pricing in. The expected move.

  • Expiration: 2024-12-20.

  • Call/Put Premium: How much extra you are paying for the implied move relative to the historic move. Low numbers mean options are "cheaper." High numbers mean options are "expensive."

  • Efficiency: This factor represents the bid/ask spreads and the depth of the order book relative to the price of the option. It represents how much traders will pay in slippage with a round trip trade. Lower numbers are less efficient than higher numbers.

  • E.R.: Days unitl the next Earnings Release. This feature is still in beta as we work on a more complete list of earnings dates.

  • Why isn't my stock on this list? It doesn't have "weeklies", the underlying is "too cheap", or the options markets are too illiquid (open interest) to qualify for this strategy. 480 underlyings are used in this report and only the top results end up passing the criteria for each filter.

3 Comments
2024/11/01
14:00 UTC

0

Shorting stocks before selling put?

Have you ever sold a csp over a stock of which you've shorted 100(ish) of? And if so, what was your strategy and why and/or when is it better/worse then selling csp on a stock you have not shorted?

5 Comments
2024/11/01
13:47 UTC

5

Theta - Trading Index ETFs (Only)

Over the years i've done CSPs, CC's, ICs, 0dte, WO, Wheel, etc.. But with my current employer I am not able to trade stocks or stock options anymore - Index ETFs only. Otherwise I have to do a cumbersome approval process. Anyone getting reasonable gains only trading with Index ETFs and what strategies ? Years back I used to do ICs on SPX, QQQ, RUT but have not done them recently. Would really like something that is mechanical as possible but just feel really limited without using stocks.

6 Comments
2024/11/01
10:36 UTC

4

Daily r/thetagang Discussion Thread - What are your moves for today?

Keep it friendly and civil; this is not WSB and automod will censor your posts at will for unsavory and unfriendly remarks. Try to keep shit posting and bragging to a minimum.

190 Comments
2024/11/01
08:00 UTC

0

Thursday dump - continue or minor correction

run up or dump continues? I was expecting a run up into FOMC but forgot there's the election. A few put credit spreads were assigned yesterday so I am thinking of what's next - sell more puts or hold off until FOMC?

3 Comments
2024/11/01
07:50 UTC

4

$4.5M Trad IRA : Strategies for selling CCs on broad index fund ETFs (SPY)?

Early 40s and I'm close to pulling the trigger to early retire and do Roth Conversions out of my Trad IRA that would have roughly $4.5M in it to live off of until actual retirement age and siphon some out before RMDs hit. I have other assets and do trade on the side. I enjoy it (mostly scalping, selling premium tactically, earnings plays), but would like to scale back.

I wanted to get thoughts here for selling calls assuming the entire balance was just sitting in something like SPY. I'm not fond of ETFs like JEPI because of the fees.

Even without explicitly doing theta gang and selling calls, assume:

  • 7% annual compound rate
  • 3% inflation
  • 3.5% withdrawal rate
  • ---> $158K ability to withdraw pre-tax per year inflation adjusted
  • ---> $127K post-tax assuming 2025 marginal tax brackets

Nothing in life guaranteed, but a 3.5% withdrawal rate should allow the principal balance to continue to grow in perpetuity.

But I'm paranoid and would like to get a couple of more pennies out while I just ride the markets for that supposed 7% over time. I would still try to be tactical and "time the market" if some real shit like Covid hit again or something I tell myself.

If instead of selling shares for the withdrawals, assuming blindly selling weeklies starting every Monday to expire Friday, current SPY at $568:

  • $4.5M / $568 = ~8000 SPY shares
  • 8000 shares / 100 = 80 contracts to sell
  • $0.75c per contract (less than 10 Delta) = $6000 per week premium

So a little over $300K per year pre-tax generated from $4.5M "solely" selling weekly SPY CCs. These are all rough numbers brought to you by ChatGPT and this online calculator.

Are my calcs roughly right and is this realistically safe to almost never get called away (unless we go gangbusters up in a week)?

Not sure I'd be fine with completely Wheeling a $4.5M balance with more aggressive premium selling to get assigned, or even just having it sit in cash and sell ICs.

19 Comments
2024/11/01
05:36 UTC

2

Calling all Halloween Candy Bag holders.... who got screwed on CSPs this week?

Earnings week is making me a not-so-proud owner of some new stocks I didn't want. What are yall gonna get stuck with?

28 Comments
2024/11/01
04:06 UTC

18

A hard lesson learned

What would you do if you wheeled a SMCI 46 put EXP 12/20 when the price was 49 before the big crash? This is the biggest risk of wheel strategy people often said.

47 Comments
2024/11/01
03:36 UTC

36

There are over 200,000 members in this group. How many of you trade opinions for a living? Because I planing to do it. Can you share your experiences?

103 Comments
2024/10/31
20:42 UTC

3

Any thought on CELH?

So I got back into Celcius a few weeks back and have sold puts (which got assigned) and currently selling covered calls (5x) for a couple weeks which brings my average down to ~30.50. Earnings is coming up next week, not sure if I should sell into ER (thinking of selling 33c for ~100, which brings my average to 29.50). If I get assigned that's 2k profit in 1 month, and if it drops below 29.50, then each dollar will cost me $500. Holding the shares past earnings is another option and selling the shares if it goes up during earnings. Anyone in a similar boat? Any thoughts on how Celcius will perform during ER?

11 Comments
2024/10/31
19:28 UTC

11

CSP's: when the underlying moves against you and becomes ATM/ITM, do you add more to the same position or open another OTM?

Title ^

Let's say underlying is $100 and you write a $90 put. If stock drops to $90, do you write more puts at the $90 (for the higher premium), or do you start writing puts at $80 for example?

12 Comments
2024/10/31
18:58 UTC

1

Bid/Ask

So I was messing around looking for a CSP to get into and I noticed the premium was higher on a date closer to expiration compared to the one the week after. I looked at the bid/ask spread and of course it was way separated so I asked for $0.01 less than what the ask was currently offering. Then I look again and I see about 50 orders match me on my price immediately and repeated it again and I was like wtf how is it so quick? So then I get an idea and go and attempt to BUY the put $0.01 higher and same thing happened. Now next thing you know the spread is only $0.02 difference when before it was around $0.09 difference. Did I just manipulate the market or something? lmfao idk just sounded fishy on whats going on. maybe bots? Is this illegal?

8 Comments
2024/10/31
18:28 UTC

3

Automated exits using conditional orders with interactive brokers

Interactive Brokers has recently released conditional orders where you can submit a market order if your underlying falls to a specific price.

I'm trading a -0.061 Delta, 4 DTE put credit spread on the SPX and have been trialing some automated exit strategies. As mentioned here before, basing the exit on the price of the option to close at a certain % loss exposes you to short term fluctuations in volatility, which has cost me a profitable spread when the underlying was nowhere near my short strike.

What are some things I should watch out for or any issues of using the spread's breakeven point as an automated exit to limit my losses? Also open to better exit ideas suitable for a shorter DTE spread.

1 Comment
2024/10/31
18:21 UTC

15

INTC premiums

I wheel INTC fairly regularly. The premiums are through the roof even after earnings. Today, just 1DTE cash secured puts with mere 0.1 delta netted me a hefty chunk in the morning. Not a bad idea to earn something in 1/1.5 days, in my opinion, if you have some cash lying around (and you're prepared to own INTC if things do go down further south by tomorrow).

22 Comments
2024/10/31
17:03 UTC

0

So what now!??? what do you do a day like today? just listen to the crickets?

what the title says... lets talk some not so great scenario strats? such as today.

57 Comments
2024/10/31
16:42 UTC

27

LEAPS versus owning shares

This mornings research is leaning toward LEAPS being more profitable if you’re bullish on a stock.

Buy in the red. .9 delta 2 years DTE

Thoughts? Experiences?

67 Comments
2024/10/31
15:25 UTC

1

Hedging AAPL for earnings

Fellas,

I have a large AAPL position. Usually I just watch earnings happen and take it as it is, but I wanted to hedge this tie around with a few puts, a partial position hedge. Can anyone share an idea such as expiry (should I do weeklies or later), how far OTM, things like this. OR direct me to a resource? Getting down to the wire but I wanted to try it out. TIA

1 Comment
2024/10/31
11:36 UTC

12

Daily r/thetagang Discussion Thread - What are your moves for today?

Keep it friendly and civil; this is not WSB and automod will censor your posts at will for unsavory and unfriendly remarks. Try to keep shit posting and bragging to a minimum.

219 Comments
2024/10/31
08:00 UTC

1

Thinking of switching out of fidelity to webull again but curious for advice

So Fidelity’s UI is vastly inferior to webull’s, not just in ease of use and mechanics but even speed of seeing values update. There have been many times when i wanted to make a quick in and out trade but fidelity takes several seconds to update the UI and fetch data where webull was almost instant.

Frankly the only reasons i would stay is the payment on CSPs from the spaxx fund. but im starting to wonder if im paying that in commissions and fees anyway. For a smaller account (<50k) with frequent trades, i might be paying more than what im getting out of spaxx monthly in fees, especially considering webull doesnt collect fees on trades.

But i what i truly wanted to ask about was fills. Does anyone have experience with both webull and fidelity fills on orders? Do they feel more or less the same or is one better than the other?

14 Comments
2024/10/31
01:40 UTC

2

Can Super Micro recover from accounting issues?

I have a decent position, need advise whether to stay or bail...I am down 40%

59 Comments
2024/10/30
23:12 UTC

14

Was this a smart move or a dumb one?

While wheeling, I own 100 shares of GRMN at $180. I've been bag holding with an 11/15 80 C while the stock sat around $166.

This morning the stock shot up to 205. No longer satisfied with breaking even, I decided to roll up. It cost $27.13 to BTC the 180 call, and the closest I could find to sell at a net profit was the 12/19/2025 200.00 C @ $29.48, so I made a profit of $233 on the roll, and maybe get a cap gain of $2000 on 12/19/25, if I live that long (I'm 90).

Is it stupid to go that far in the future? What would be a better way to deal with the situation?

Edited to correct strike prices.

15 Comments
2024/10/30
22:59 UTC

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