/r/wallstreetbets

Photograph via snooOG

Like 4chan found a Bloomberg Terminal.

The rules and submission guidelines are maintained on new Reddit so be sure to check them and make sure you're up to date.


Join the discord

WSB Discord

filter by flairs

Navigate WSB We recommend best daily DD
DD All / Best Daily / Best Weekly
Discussion All / Best Daily / Best Weekly
YOLO All / Best Daily / Best Weekly
Gain All / Best Daily / Best Weekly
Loss All / Best Daily / Best Weekly
Shitpost All / Best Daily / Best Weekly
Meme All / Best Daily / Best Weekly

Earnings Thread - Daily Thread


/r/wallstreetbets

17,163,979 Subscribers

0

when did i start options

5 Comments
2024/12/02
11:16 UTC

19

Daily Discussion Thread for December 02, 2024

This post contains content not supported on old Reddit. Click here to view the full post

193 Comments
2024/12/02
10:57 UTC

44

PlanetLabs the bull run has yet to come

I have posted about this ticker before but it didnt seem to gain much traction.

PlanetLabs build and launch satellites for the sole purpose of obtaining imagery data. Yes their use case is small and it is relatively a new few, but I feel data is the next step towards space industry. Just imagine how this could be used, we could get a real time imagery of mars or moon so that we can start development of moon base.

Ok anyway. $PL has gotten accepted to nasa’s csda program which is for data acquisition. 7 other companies have also been accepted inside. Now what is csda, tldr half a billion dollars will be used to fund these 8 companies in efforts to acquire data, they say its for climate change, I say otherwise. This could be a very powerful and sought after tool to analyse and observe other countries. Anyway, $PL has only surged about 30% before the announcement of 19.9m contract awarded by nasa. Yes they have been awarded a 19.9m contract, 20x more then their competitor satellogic which surged 100% at the time of writing upon announcement of their contract winnings.

Now why hasnt their contract winnings been marketed or heavily announced. Well if you visit their subreddit where I obtain their photo from, it was mentioned that their earnings report is coming out soon ~9dec. And they are bounded by law not to post things to manipulate the market if im not wrong, im regarded and dun unds these compliance stuff.

Target price 6-7.

Positions: 51 * APR 17 2025 5$ calls (small amounts cause Im currently in archer and up ~1000% rn) might add more if i close archer

37 Comments
2024/12/02
09:49 UTC

16

Holding FTI for a few years. Had 2000 shares but already sold 1000 of them when it hit $30 earlier

6 Comments
2024/12/02
04:57 UTC

46

$ACHR gains

Good enough to screenshot, good enough to sell but im gg to 💎🙌 on this one

15 Comments
2024/12/02
04:24 UTC

0

Is DoorDash The Amazon Killer?

Doordash now has household goods, groceries, electronics, etc. which all usually deliver in less than 1 hour. I also tried out a few shopping carts and DoorDash was actually cheaper.

I like DoorDash's strategy of being a last mile carrier and reusing existing supply chains. Amazon's strategy of building their own end-to-end supply chain seems like it hit a brick wall with delivery speed. The fastest you can get now is several hours with no signs of improvement.

Thoughts?

EDIT: I mean Amazon retail will be dissolved. AWS will still exist.

73 Comments
2024/12/02
03:49 UTC

2,634

Jacked to the tits on puts - If NASDAQ is red tomorrow I'm 100% booking a porn star

Positions - Got in around NDX 20950 - 20960 and am looking for 20800 (any progress along the way is fine even if it doesn't hit 100%)

Who should I book? $2,000 gets me Phoenix Marie and $1,200 gets me Lauren Philips

619 Comments
2024/12/01
23:16 UTC

243

What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, December 02, 2024

This post contains content not supported on old Reddit. Click here to view the full post

5593 Comments
2024/12/01
20:57 UTC

0

MSTR vs BTC (etf) vs BTC

Late to the game but looking at adding some bitcoin. Any thoughts on these options?

MSTR = if course higher valuation than their BTC holdings and is sort if a 3-4x proxy. But volatility could translate to higher growth than BTC alone. Plus, selling covered calls has some really juicy premiums.

BTC = actually buying bitcoin. Most direct. But it bugs me crypto is treated so oddly. Asked if you own crypto on taxes and some banks. Prefer to avoid this stuff.

BTC (etf) = seems the most straightforward way to get into Bitcoin. Fee is 0.15% which isn’t crazy high.

Thoughts on these 3 options?

23 Comments
2024/12/01
20:37 UTC

17

GSAT reverse stock split, not bad?

I only scrape the surface as far as some of you folks go by way of analysis. GlobalStar ‘s Q1 pending reverse stock split seems like it comes with good faith of NASDAQ listing and potential outlooks getting it out of penny stock territory. Just wanted to probe the discussion board on what folks think of the next 2-6 months based on reverse stock splits generally not being a great sign of financials. Thoughts?

3000 shares 30 2C 4-17-25

32 Comments
2024/12/01
20:18 UTC

40

STLA CEO Tavares resignes (is fired)

The CEO of STLA stellantis (owner of jeep, RAM etc) has just resigned (in other words he has just been fired)

Numbers must be very bad at STLA.. Tavares has ahsolutely destroyed the brand in the US with crazy prices and destroyed the dealership network..

shares down big tomorrow

does Renault bid for STLA now under Luca Di MEo

Auto giant Stellantis announces "immediate" resignation of CEO Tavares

Sunday, December 01, 2024 09:03 pm Dec. 1 (AFP) -- Stellantis chief executive Carlos Tavares on Sunday resigned "with immediate effect", the auto giant announced, signalling differences over the future of the multi-brand firm. The company, which makes Fiat, Peugeot and Jeep vehicles, said in a statement that the board had accepted the resignation of the 66-year-old Portuguese executive. "In recent weeks different views have emerged which have resulted in the board and the CEO coming to today's decision," independent director Henri de Castries said in the statement.

48 Comments
2024/12/01
20:12 UTC

11

What will happen to Oil Stocks

Oil stocks have had a weird few weeks with the Middle East tensions rising then falling, Russia on the aggression with Ukraine. I’ve read some people saying we’re heading to a dip in all the gas/oil stocks with stockpiling by certain countries including Russia, and some other regards saying we’re heading more for a ~$75 by EOY.

Anyway, I’m hodling my calls. I reckon ~75 by EOY, but let’s see.

65 Comments
2024/12/01
19:07 UTC

84

RCL Covid Buy - $2.3k -> $24.4k (+960%)

11 Comments
2024/12/01
18:24 UTC

0

Why I think $RDDT will surpass $1k a share easily - Search, eComm, and ads = $$$$

Hear me out. I'm not coming at this from a technical or fundamental perspective, so there are some things to explain for those that don't understand. But also want to hear others perspectives, even the bears (respectfully if possible hah)

I'm not a trader by any means. I'm in Reddit because my background is giving me some new perspective on the potential.

My background is in SEO (search engine optimization). I know the search engines. I know how websites are monetized. I've seen hundreds of millions of dollars pass through the hands of clients, bloggers, ecom stores I've owned, CPA offers and leveraging social media, etc etc

There's an endless supply of money on the web via ad revenue, product referrals, and money to be had without actually selling a thing. If you don't understand how ad revenue is generated on the web, it similar to traditional advertising models. Traditionally you would charge by CPM (cost per 1000 impressions). An impression is simply someone seeing an ad. For example if a billboard company sells you an ad space it's based on the amount of people that travel down the freeway. So if the freeway has 10k traffic everyday thats 10k impressions a day and the advertising company sets a price for the CPM.

With the web you have more avenues to monetize. But the majority of monetizing with ads is via CPCs and CPM. CPC = cost per click. We can get into marketing funnels and offers and yada yada but thats not how a company like Reddit is going to monetize. I've seen little dinky websites that leverage ranking web pages for keywords in Google make big $$. One example is a DUI attorney I worked with in Phoenix who had a blog. So you understand how blog monetization works just go to any blog and look at their ads on the page, and possible affiliate links inside of the content. Anyhow, for the DUI attorney his ads in the side bar of his blog were earning him on average $40 per click. Everytime someone clicked an ad on his page he made approx $40. "dui attorney phoenix" currently has a range of $30 - $225 per click and get and avg of $82 per click as one example. His adsense account made $10k a month roughly on a blog that was getting about $20k in monthly traffic. Reddit has 1.2 billion in unique organic visitors every month. And growing

Reddit is in it's infancy when it comes to monetizing their traffic and really leverging their ads such as a company like Facebook/Meta.

However, it has more organic traffic than Amazon. Last I checked Reddit was fluctuating between #5 and #7 in terms of sites with the largest traffic.

Amazon IPO'd at $18 a share. They adjusted shares 480x (not sure if that number is 100% correct, but I think it is) which means the current share price since IPO without splits is about $99k per share.

If Reddit closes the gaps in 3 areas...

Dials in their ad monetization
Launches a Marketplace
Capitalizes on local search traffic

It's my opinion this could easily be $1000+ a share. Market cap is a measly 25 bil.

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE this is only my outlook based on the possibility with leveraging search traffic and monetizing it, the possibility that being the 5th largest traffic driver on the web brings, and why I'm invested.

78 Comments
2024/12/01
17:06 UTC

159

1 Month Cassava Gains

94 Comments
2024/12/01
13:24 UTC

1,797

Absolutely insane monthly candle for bitcoin.

400 Comments
2024/12/01
09:03 UTC

168

Sold 15k -> 51k ACHR calls

Planning to go back in slowly after a few other plays in the coming months since I also expect a correction / consolidation.

106 ACHR 7C 2027/01/15 sold

44 Comments
2024/12/01
07:24 UTC

1,177

All In on SMCI: $6,000,000 Bet Across Interactive Brokers and My Swiss Bank – Am I Crazy or a Genius?

In-Depth Investigation of Supermicro (SMCI): Financial Analysis, Future Scenarios, and AI Market Potential

I’ve spent hours gathering, analyzing, and organizing all the information to present it here for you. I hope it brings clarity to the complexities surrounding Supermicro. As always, everything here represents my personal opinion and is not financial advice or a recommendation.

Quick Overview

SMCI: Navigating Opportunities and Challenges

  • Potential Share Price: $35–$100, depending on scenarios.
  • Future Market Cap: $20–$60 billion.
  • AI Market: Expected growth of 10%-15% annually through 2027.
  • Key Question: Will SMCI seize the AI opportunity, or will financial challenges weigh it down?

Investigation Steps

1. Reviewing Reports and Analyzing the Data

I reviewed SMCI's annual and quarterly financial reports. Key highlights include:

  • Inventory: A sharp increase of 3x within one year (from $1.45 billion to $4.41 billion).
  • Cash Flow Discrepancy: High revenue with significant negative cash flow of $2.48 billion in 2024.
  • Related Party Transactions: Deals with suppliers owned by the CEO's family raised concerns about potential manipulation.
  • Delayed Financial Filings: Delays in submitting financial reports raise questions about transparency.

2. Defining Scenarios and Probabilities

I estimated the likelihood of each scenario based on the company’s history, current market conditions, and financial data:

  • All Allegations Are True: 15%-20%, considering past accounting issues.
  • Some Allegations Are True: 40%-50%, indicating minor but not severe problems.
  • No Allegations Are True: 30%-35%, given SMCI’s strong market position and AI growth prospects.

3. Industry Context and Comparisons

SMCI operates in a highly competitive AI infrastructure market, where leaders like NVIDIA, HP, and Dell play critical roles. Unlike competitors focused on broader markets, SMCI is carving a niche in AI-specific solutions, such as liquid cooling and custom server technology.

Scenario Analysis: Data and Outcomes

Scenario 1: All Allegations Are True

  • Adjusted Revenue: $12.5–$13.3 billion.
  • Adjusted Net Income: $1.03–$1.09 billion.
  • Market Cap: $20–$24 billion.
  • Share Price: $35–$40.

Scenario 2: Some Allegations Are True

  • Adjusted Revenue: $13.5–$14 billion.
  • Adjusted Net Income: $1.1–$1.15 billion.
  • Market Cap: $23–$27 billion.
  • Share Price: $40–$45.

Scenario 3: No Allegations Are True

  • Revenue: $14.94 billion.
  • Net Income: $1.21 billion.
  • Market Cap: $25–$35 billion.
  • Share Price: $42–$55.

Future Outlook for the AI Market: 3 Levels of Optimism

Why SMCI May Succeed

  1. Competitive Advantage: Liquid cooling and AI-optimized servers give SMCI an edge.
  2. AI Market Growth: The AI market is expected to surpass $1 trillion by 2027.
  3. Strategic Positioning: SMCI’s focus on scalable, high-performance hardware uniquely positions it for large-scale AI adoption.

Future Valuation Estimates

  1. Conservative: $50 billion market cap, $80 share price.
  2. Moderate: $56 billion market cap, $90 share price.
  3. Optimistic: $60 billion market cap, $100 share price.

Visual Insights

1. Scenario Comparison by Market Cap

This chart highlights SMCI’s potential market cap across different scenarios, showcasing conservative, moderate, and optimistic projections.

https://preview.redd.it/kpylh567m44e1.png?width=2000&format=png&auto=webp&s=9a3c1cf5ad63904a75c488049b5e1fe092366e65

2. AI Market Growth Forecast

https://preview.redd.it/nz0zea43m44e1.png?width=2000&format=png&auto=webp&s=4e4dec8ea0799541825c1aab9ba11b850507cbca

This chart illustrates the rapid growth of the AI market from 2023 to 2027, emphasizing the enormous opportunity for companies like SMCI.

Key Industry Comparisons

MetricSMCINVIDIADellHP
Focus AreaAI InfrastructureGPUs/AI ChipsGeneral ITGeneral IT
P/E Ratio~20-25 (est.)~90-100~10-15~8-12
Market PositionNiche AI HardwareAI Chip LeaderBroad IT SolutionsEnterprise IT

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: "How were the percentage adjustments determined?"
A: The analysis relied on accounting trends, cash flow gaps, and historical issues with the company.

Q: "Why did you choose a P/E ratio of 20-25?"
A: This is a conservative multiplier suitable for tech companies in competitive, high-growth markets.

Q: "What makes SMCI different from competitors?"
A: SMCI focuses on hardware solutions specifically tailored for AI workloads, including liquid cooling and high-performance servers.

Key Takeaways

  • SMCI has significant growth potential in the AI infrastructure market, provided it addresses transparency concerns.
  • Challenges include: inventory management, cash flow issues, and related-party transactions.
  • Market cap projections range from $20 billion to $60 billion, with share prices between $35 and $100 depending on performance.
  • The AI market is expected to grow rapidly, offering a lucrative opportunity for companies like SMCI.

Summary and Insights

ScenarioAdjusted RevenueAdjusted Net IncomeMarket Cap (Conservative)Market Cap (Optimistic)Share Price (Range)
All Allegations Are True$12.5–$13.3B$1.03–$1.09B$20B$24B$35–$40
Some Allegations Are True$13.5–$14B$1.1–$1.15B$23B$27B$40–$45
No Allegations Are True$14.94B$1.21B$25B$35B$42–$55
Future Outlook (AI Market)$25–$30B$2.5–$3B$50B$60B$80–$100

Important Disclaimer

⚠️ This post is not financial advice and should not be taken as an investment recommendation.
Readers are encouraged to perform their own research before making any investment decisions.

  • This is not financial advice and is solely my personal opinion.
  • I’m sharing my thoughts, and everyone should do their own research before making any investment decisions.
  • This post is not intended to manipulate the stock price, just to share my journey and analysis.

Disclosure

I used ChatGPT to organize all my analysis and create the graphs.

What do you think? Will SMCI dominate the AI market, or is this too risky? Let’s discuss! 🚀

IBKR

Swiss Bank

Some Bullish Videos:
1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IDC_raA0dqY
2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KMM14FsCriM&t

690 Comments
2024/11/30
23:45 UTC

Back To Top