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38

Daily Discussion Thread - December 31, 2024

Welcome to the r/weedstocks Daily Discussion Thread!

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This thread is intended for the community to talk about whichever company with others in a casual manner.

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84 Comments
2024/12/31
08:00 UTC

48

Daily Discussion Thread - December 30, 2024

Welcome to the r/weedstocks Daily Discussion Thread!

  • New to Reddit? Read This.
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  • Use the search bar before asking any question. All questions that can be answered by these resources may be removed.
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This thread is intended for the community to talk about whichever company with others in a casual manner.

Unrelated discussion will always be removed (as per rule #3). Reddit is full of various other communities, and while we understand cross-discussion, unrelated topics should be discussed in their appropriate subreddits.

Please remember proper reddiquette when participating in the conversation. As always, rule #1 ("be kind and respectful") will be strictly enforced here to prevent any uncivil discussion and personal attacks.

116 Comments
2024/12/30
08:00 UTC

19

Trump vs. Biden: Small-Cap Stocks' Performance Explained | Trade to Black

2 Comments
2024/12/30
03:40 UTC

243

Overview of TLRY brands and personal approach to asses fair value

Dear all,

there has been a lot of buzz around Tilray lately and I'd like to provide a small outline of the company and it's brands.

Tilray merged with Aphria in 2021 and retained the name "Tilray" with the CEO from Aphria Irwin Simon.

According to their yearly earning report, their company goals are following:

  1. Build global brands that lead in their respective industries by winning the hearts and minds of our consumers and patients.
  2. Develop innovative products and form factors that change the way the world consumes cannabis.
  3. Grow and leverage our investment in beverage and hemp-based food.
  4. Expand the availability of high quality, consistent medical cannabis products for patients around the world, wherever it is legal.
  5. Optimize and drive efficiencies in our global operations with a relentless focus on cost reduction and cash generation.

You can dive further into those goals in their last yearly earning report, but for me the interesting points are:

Tilray has established leading brands and a enormous variety of products in the adult-use and medical cannabis market, which can easily be transfered to further countries opening medical or adult-use cannabis. Further they developed a strong network in pharma distribution wordlwide and in beverage/food in the USA which could allow a rapid entry in further opening countries such as USA.

Overview of Tilray brands:

Cannabis segment:

Global Cannabis Net Revenue Increased 33% with International Cannabis Growth of 44% Over the Prior Year Quarter, #1 Market Share in Canada and #1 Market Share in Germany.

German Medical Cannabis Flower Revenue Increases by 50% Following Legalization which was in April 2024 so there is a lot of more revenuq coming and growing.

Medical Cannabis Brands

  • Tilray: A key player in Germany's medical cannabis market.
  • Aphria: A leading Canadian brand.
  • Broken Coast: Premium, hand-trimmed medical cannabis (Canada and Australia).
  • Symbios and Navcora: Budget-friendly medical cannabis brands for the German market.
  • Charlotte's Web: Renowned for its CBD extracts.

Adult-Use Cannabis Brands

Tilray’s extensive portfolio caters to all consumer segments:

  • Economy: Bake Sale.
  • Value: Good Supply, Original Stash (note: reviews indicate quality issues with Good Supply products, primarily due to their budget nature; but to be fair it is budget weed..).
  • Mainstream: Redecan (hand-trimmed, highly rated for quality), Riff (very good reviews, often at least 4.5 out of 5), Solei (special cannabinoid-focused for special interests), Canaca, Hexo, XMG (Canada’s #1 cannabis beverage brand), Mollo, Chowie Wowie (edibles)
  • Premium: Broken Coast (high-quality, slow-cured, hand-trimmed cannabis at ~$10/gram, which for me sounds fair and reasonable, also a lot of very good reviews).

Wholesale Operations

Tilray also supplies bulk and finished cannabis products to other companies, leveraging its position in the supply chain.

This sector grew massive:

Revenue from wholesale cannabis . . . 2024: 25,340,000 VS 2023: 1,436,000

YOY increase of 1,665%

Distribution

Through CC Pharma (acquired via the Aphria merger), Tilray has a robust distribution network in Germany for cannabis and medical products.

Wellness Segment

Tilray's wellness brands focus on hemp products and the whole plant is used:

  • Manitoba Harvest: Hemp seeds, oils, protein.
  • Just Hemp Foods and Hemp Yeah!: Wide range of hemp-based foods and private labels

Beverage Segment:

Beverage-Alcohol Net Revenue Increased 165% Over the Prior Year Quarter, Tilray is the 5th Largest Craft Beer Brewer in the US  with 4.5% Craft Beer Market Share.

  • Montauk Brewing: #1 craft brewer in New York.
  • SweetWater Brewing: Known for its cannabis-aligned lifestyle and flagship 420 beer.
  • Shock Top: Belgian-style beers.
  • Breckenridge Brewery and Distillery: Artisanal spirits (gin, vodka, whiskey).
  • Alpine Beer Company: Top-rated IPAs.
  • Green Flash Brewing, Widmer Brothers, and 10 Barrel Brewing: Renowned craft beer brands.
  • Square Mile Cider Company: Pacific Northwest apple ciders.
  • Hiball Hardball: Hard seltzers and energy drinks.

Tilray’s Financial Overview and Valuation Analysis

Tilray’s financial year 2024 ended in May 2024 with a revenue of $788M USD, reflecting consistent growth over recent years. With the continued opening of international markets to medical and adult-use cannabis, there is a strong chance that financial year 2025 could exceed $1B USD in revenue. The company’s diversification into craft beer and other beverage segments is becoming a rapidly growing income stream. I remain very positive about the future of this company, regardless of reclassification in the U.S., as Tilray’s broad international footprint and diversified portfolio give it a significant advantage over its competitors in the sector.

 

What Could Be a Fair Value for Tilray?

I am not offering financial advice but would like to share my perspective as an investor who has owned Tilray shares since the Aphria days before the merger and has heavily DCAed into the stock. Although dilution remains a real concern, I believe Tilray’s market cap could reasonably sit at $3B-$4B, based on comparisons with companies that have similar revenues and profiles (e.g., cannabis, beverages). At this market cap, the share price would range between $3.75-$5 USD, given the current number of outstanding shares.

Historical Market Cap Context
During the 2021 surge, driven by enthusiasm around cannabis legalization and meme-stock momentum, Tilray’s market cap reached ~$8B, which would correspond to a share price of ~$10 USD today.

 Book Value and P/S Ratio

  • Book Value Per Share: The current book value is $3.97 USD per share, indicating that the stock is trading near its intrinsic equity value, which suggests undervaluation.
  • P/S Ratio: The current P/S ratio is approximately 1.6, which is significantly below the sector average of 3-4. Applying a P/S of 3-4 would place the share price at ~$4 USD, aligning with industry peers.

 

Risk-Reward Analysis
Although future outcomes cannot never be guaranteed, I am optimistic that Tilray’s potential is significantly higher than the current market price suggests. Recent share price declines appear to be driven by FUD from short sellers and political uncertainty in the U.S. Even without immediate U.S. federal legalization, Tilray is well-positioned to capitalize on international market openings, where it already has a strong footprint. Additionally, U.S. cannabis reform remains a possibility, and Tilray’s diversified portfolio (including beverages) provides robust growth opportunities, enhancing the risk-reward ratio.

So have a safe flight, 420!

91 Comments
2024/12/29
10:03 UTC

40

Daily Discussion Thread - December 29, 2024

Welcome to the r/weedstocks Daily Discussion Thread!

  • New to Reddit? Read This.
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This thread is intended for the community to talk about whichever company with others in a casual manner.

Unrelated discussion will always be removed (as per rule #3). Reddit is full of various other communities, and while we understand cross-discussion, unrelated topics should be discussed in their appropriate subreddits.

Please remember proper reddiquette when participating in the conversation. As always, rule #1 ("be kind and respectful") will be strictly enforced here to prevent any uncivil discussion and personal attacks.

31 Comments
2024/12/29
08:00 UTC

40

Daily Discussion Thread - December 28, 2024

Welcome to the r/weedstocks Daily Discussion Thread!

  • New to Reddit? Read This.
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This thread is intended for the community to talk about whichever company with others in a casual manner.

Unrelated discussion will always be removed (as per rule #3). Reddit is full of various other communities, and while we understand cross-discussion, unrelated topics should be discussed in their appropriate subreddits.

Please remember proper reddiquette when participating in the conversation. As always, rule #1 ("be kind and respectful") will be strictly enforced here to prevent any uncivil discussion and personal attacks.

47 Comments
2024/12/28
08:00 UTC

6

Is IIPR a Div Trap?

Looking at the performance if IIPR, it doesnt look so good. Would this be considered a div trap?

5 Comments
2024/12/28
01:22 UTC

30

Any cannabis ETFs you would recommend and why?

As the title says, I was wondering what ETFs people think positively on and why. I feel like everyone was expecting a lot more from this sector in the past few years, and I’m thinking if it’s a good time to start slowly accruing some positions in an etf finally.

53 Comments
2024/12/27
18:42 UTC

44

Daily Discussion Thread - December 27, 2024

Welcome to the r/weedstocks Daily Discussion Thread!

  • New to Reddit? Read This.
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  • Use the search bar before asking any question. All questions that can be answered by these resources may be removed.
  • Looking for research resources about which company to invest in? Please refer to our sidebar -- specifically our featured Investing References -- to help you in your research process.

This thread is intended for the community to talk about whichever company with others in a casual manner.

Unrelated discussion will always be removed (as per rule #3). Reddit is full of various other communities, and while we understand cross-discussion, unrelated topics should be discussed in their appropriate subreddits.

Please remember proper reddiquette when participating in the conversation. As always, rule #1 ("be kind and respectful") will be strictly enforced here to prevent any uncivil discussion and personal attacks.

106 Comments
2024/12/27
08:00 UTC

41

Daily Discussion Thread - December 26, 2024

Welcome to the r/weedstocks Daily Discussion Thread!

  • New to Reddit? Read This.
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  • Use the search bar before asking any question. All questions that can be answered by these resources may be removed.
  • Looking for research resources about which company to invest in? Please refer to our sidebar -- specifically our featured Investing References -- to help you in your research process.

This thread is intended for the community to talk about whichever company with others in a casual manner.

Unrelated discussion will always be removed (as per rule #3). Reddit is full of various other communities, and while we understand cross-discussion, unrelated topics should be discussed in their appropriate subreddits.

Please remember proper reddiquette when participating in the conversation. As always, rule #1 ("be kind and respectful") will be strictly enforced here to prevent any uncivil discussion and personal attacks.

84 Comments
2024/12/26
08:00 UTC

10

Marimed MRMD Discussion

Seems unpopular here. Why do you think that is? Any related thoughts? pros/cons? thanks

15 Comments
2024/12/26
07:33 UTC

38

Daily Discussion Thread - December 25, 2024

Welcome to the r/weedstocks Daily Discussion Thread!

  • New to Reddit? Read This.
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  • Use the search bar before asking any question. All questions that can be answered by these resources may be removed.
  • Looking for research resources about which company to invest in? Please refer to our sidebar -- specifically our featured Investing References -- to help you in your research process.

This thread is intended for the community to talk about whichever company with others in a casual manner.

Unrelated discussion will always be removed (as per rule #3). Reddit is full of various other communities, and while we understand cross-discussion, unrelated topics should be discussed in their appropriate subreddits.

Please remember proper reddiquette when participating in the conversation. As always, rule #1 ("be kind and respectful") will be strictly enforced here to prevent any uncivil discussion and personal attacks.

29 Comments
2024/12/25
08:00 UTC

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