Caesars Palace signing with the legend

This post is a little long. TLDR: the Reds have payroll space, they have gone after major targets before, they should do it this time.

Consider, just as a a thought excercise, that the Reds had 2 major runs at major players in the last 24 years. One would say "free agent" runs, but that would not be quite accurate, as the first player I would include is Ken Griffey Jr, who we acquired by trade in 2000. To acquire him, however, we gave him a 122$M extension, which included 57.5M in deferments until... 2024 (coincidentally). The 57.5M inflation-adjusts to 105.1M (but that is not usually how a deferment would work, as they are non-inflation adjuested [unless there were a special agreement- his had 4% interest] this number is useful to consider potential comparable deferments numbers the Reds might consider). The total salaried-amount inflation-adjusted, around 64.5M$ total, amounts to around 118M today over 9 years at age 30 for years 30-39. This is a unique circumastance with a hometown kid, but we ought to be able to remove emotion from the equation to say: a big addition is not impossible for the Reds.

The other major target was in 2011, MLBTR reported in 2019 the Reds were the runner-ups for Pujols. To be frank, this would have been a mistake, but it further supports the thesis: Reds ownership will make a run for a major target if the price and timing is right. The offer was for 225M/10 years- ~315M today. To be blunt, there will be no other time to make a major addition similar to this outside of now. Lets consider some options

For the most unrealistic, but potentially most surplus-value laden prospect, it is worth considering Juan Soto. Now, he is unlikly to be the signing, but lets just consider him for argument. Bleacher report projects him for a 15 year-550M contract, this is likely too much for the Reds to committ to. However, though a significant long-term committment, it could be absorbed within reasonably close levels of payroll we maintain today. I will do a payroll rundown at the end, but I will do these numbers first. If Soto would represents a 36.66AAV (perhaps, at least) salary, that number is pretty close to the inflation-adjusted salry for a potential Pujols signing, 31.5M. What if deferments were considered? If the Reds offered the same amount of deferments inflation adjusted for Soto as Jr, that would be 118M, lets round to 120M over 20 years. That would make the contract 15-430M, 28M AAV. Not totally unreasonable. I would support this move, we have the second most hitter-favorable park, Soto would allow us to benefit from that fact. This would complicate future extensions, but Soto is a once in a decade target. If you can get him, keep Elly, and tread water with control of pitchers, that suggests a potentially entrenched long term playoff contender.

For secondary but also valuable targets, first is Willy Adames. Adames is a surprisingly valuable played with above average hitting and field, with power that might, again, play even better in GABP. The same Bleacher Report article estimates a 6-120M contract for him. Such a contract would likely not neccesiate deferrments, but could be made to decrease medium-term payroll pressures. Adames is a bit older than Soto, but he just turned 29 in September. Adames would represents a nice upgrade to both our power and infield defense, though it would further extend the trend of moving fielders at different locations. Perhaps Adames or DLC would be a valuable 3B defender, but same move might just as well limit our defensive upside/comfort. This move would mean guys like Candelario, CES, and India would have to compete for the final DH/1B/ innings. Though slightly awkward, this move could deliver supreme surplus value if recent seasons are replicated over the reasonable terms of length. If we were in on Sonny Gray last year, this is in the same realm of target. If we are spending in free agency, it should be with a major addition, not 2-4 8-15M$ target guys, those are the guys that create a log jam of mediocre options.

Another option could be Pete Alonso. Even if we did have the most competitive number, I would wager the Mets would match the offer anyway. Still, for sake of argument, his power could, again, play very well in GABP. The biggest problem here: he only plays one position. Such a signing would be an admission Candy was a mistake and could mean CES is not a long-term contributor. I am not sure CES has shown enough to say "he is a reason you would not consider an investment to replace him". If CES is good, I think he plays well enough to earn DH ABs, forcing Candy to the bench. This world might necessitate cost-cutting. How much might Alonso cost? BleacherReport says 7-189M, 27M AAV. Again, reasonable number if Alonso contributes 3-4 5 win seasons, he has not shown a high risk factor to turn into Chris Davis in my opinion. Could be a good value, do not see it happening.

Three lesser but still major targets include Ha-Seong-Kim, Anthony Santander, and Teoscar Hernandez. All would be in the 3-4 65-90M range or so. All might represent a nice short term spark to offense/defense (for Kim), but these options kinda represent more of the same. Perhaps the Reds do go after the above guys and strike out from small market factor, but they still oughta try. There are also pitchers avaialable, this does not seem like the best thing to use resources on if we were to go all in. Now, for payroll rundown.

~41.8M rough guarantees for next year, 6 players (guessing Pagan accepts 8M opt, we accepts Maile and Suter at 3.5M, maybe not for some more $).

Junis 8M Option 3M Buyout (lets say buyout) 44.8M

ARB estimates T. Steph- 2.5M '24- 3.5M 25 Espinal- 2.725M '24 - 3.25M '25 (cut candidate) Ty France- 1M '24- 8M '25 (I have seen he has higher ARB number, could be wrong- big cut candidate at this #) J Fraley- 2.1 '24- 2.5M '25 Lodolo 760k- 2M(?) Arb1 Tejay Antone 800k-1m (cut candidate) A Diaz 760k- 2M I Gibaut 760k- 1.2M S Moll 727k- 1.2m A Wynn 900k- 1.1m (cut candidate)

Total: (12.5M-29M) (57.3M-73.8M)

Pre-Arb Renew (these renews likely will not be this high, lets just extimate high for argument) DLC- 742k- 1M McClain- 742k- 1M CES- 742k- 1M Marte- 373k(suspension adj)- 1M Benson- 750k- 1M Fairchild- 1M Friedl- 1M Steer- 1M Hinds- 750k Abbott- 1 M Williamson- 750k Aguilar- 800k Rhett Lowder- 800k F Cruz- 750k- 800k C Spiers- 550k- 750k T Santillan min- 800k

Total: 13M-14M

Total estimate: (70.3-87.8)

2019 126M + 135M year end is the maximum recent salary, lets not use inflation to jump much from here. With 130M as a perceived relative maximum, the Reds have between 42-60M to use this offseason. If we consider a lesser jump, 115M, that means 27-45M AAV to spend. Should we really use this money on 1-2 win players like Monatas, hope they have a career year and produce 5 WAR? Or should we invest one time in one major piece to raise the baseline of this team? With the hiring of Francona brings the suggestion we are serious to take the next step. No Reds fan expects Soto, but if we are going to take the next step, it is time to truly go after and get a bigtime (at least for us) free agent.

I'm excited about the Terry Francona hire and wanted to share a memorable encounter I had with him.

In the summer of 2006, at 13 years old, I was luck enough to visit Fenway Park and was in awe. My family arrived early for batting practice to soak up every moment. During this time, Terry Francona emerged from the clubhouse to cheers from the crowd.

I’ve never been one to seek autographs, but with him right there, it felt like the right moment. About 50 fans were vying for his attention, and my friend and I were the only kids nearby. I called out "Coach Francona," while my friend yelled "Terry." Francona looked at the other kid, who had handed him a hat, and said, "You can call me Mr. Francona or Coach Francona, but you haven't earned calling me Terry." He then handed the hat back. When I handed him my program, he signed it and said, "Thank you for being respectful."

While this moment doesn’t directly reflect discipline or player relations, it shows his belief in doing things the right way.

Go Reds!

Go Redlegs.

2012: Red Sox Flop Linked to Chicken, Beer, & Video Games in Clubhouse

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/red-sox-flop-linked-to-beer-chicken-video-games/

2016: Francisco Lindor Admits He Took Nap During Game Seven of World Series

https://www.wkyc.com/article/sports/mlb/indians/francisco-lindor-game-7-loss-indians/95-a15315e0-7637-42be-b1b9-befab13d1527

2021: Francisco Lindor Admits He Got Lazy, Didn't Give His Best Effort in the Weight Room & Was Out of Shape

https://www.wkyc.com/article/sports/mlb/indians/francisco-lindor-discusses-2020-struggles-indians-mets/95-680a3478-5feb-470e-8931-6779e6b7a775

So don't expect Terry Francona to hold any players accountable. He is a player's manager because he basically lets the players do whatever they want.

That the Brewers lost in the Wild Card and then we hired Terry Francona as our manager. Wouldn't that have been crazy if that really happened. Just thought you guys would enjoy hearing it.

We have to sign Trevor Bauer. They left on great terms.

Terry Francona as the next manager of the club

The Brewers getting bounced in the first round.

EVERYONE GET IN HERE

Alonso nuked it 😍

Check out this story from Cincinnati.com: Reality TV for Reds: Latest Bally news looks like blow to 2025 plans

The Cincinnati Reds are one of 5 teams Bally Sports' parent company wants to renegotiate rights-fees contracts with, under its latest bankruptcy plan.

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/mlb/reds/2024/10/03/cincinnati-reds-television-2025-bally-sports-reds-budget-reds-payroll/75498420007/

I know there are a lot of posters that only follow the Reds, and don't catch too much news from other teams. (Nothing wrong with that BTW). So I thought I'd pass this along in the context of the Reds.

Arizona Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick on the signing of Jordan Montgomery-

“Let me say it the best way I can say it," Kendrick said Monday on the The Burns & Gambo Show. “If anyone wants to blame anyone for Jordan Montgomery being a Diamondback, you’re talking to the guy who should be blamed, because I brought it to their attention. I pushed for it. They agreed to it.

“It wasn’t in our game plan. You know when he was signed, right at the end of spring training. And looking back, in hindsight, a horrible decision, to have invested that money in a guy that performed as poorly as he did.

“It was our biggest mistake this season from a talent standpoint. And I’m the perpetrator of that.”“Let me say it the best way I can say it," Kendrick said Monday on the The Burns & Gambo Show. “If anyone wants to blame anyone for Jordan Montgomery being a Diamondback, you’re talking to the guy who should be blamed, because I brought it to their attention. I pushed for it. They agreed to it.

“It wasn’t in our game plan. You know when he was signed, right at the end of spring training. And looking back, in hindsight, a horrible decision, to have invested that money in a guy that performed as poorly as he did.

“It was our biggest mistake this season from a talent standpoint. And I’m the perpetrator of that.”

So 2 things:

1. Props to Kendrick for owning it, although there may be some ulterior motives I'll bring up later.

2. This is a cautionary tale on why small to mid market teams should not just go spend blindly, especially on starting pitching.

We all know the general tale of the D'backs. They went full rebuild, hit the jackpot on some prospects, and turned that into a trip to the World Series in 23.

Last offseason, they felt that they had to spend big and go for it. They made some moves on the offensive side, trading for Geno, and signing Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk. Combined, those 3 made just over $20 million and have been decent contributors. They also signed Eduardo Rodriguez to a 5 year deal, averaging around $18mil per season. And late in the game, brought in the aforementioned Mongtomery for $25 million a year, hot of his playoff run last year.

The D'backs got off to a slow start, but by the trade deadline they were well in the hunt. They could only afford minor deals at the deadline though. Rodriguez was hurt most of the season. Montgomery was hurt some, but was wildly ineffective. He posted the highest ERA of qualified starters, and ended the year as the most expensive long reliever in the game. The bad performance of high price players, and inability to make moves at the deadline took a team expected to stick with the Dodgers, and ultimately should have been a wild card team, and left them on the outside of playoffs.

The reason I bring up ulterior motive for the owners statement is this. He feels that decision wiped out '24. And '25 might be in jeopardy because of it. They have more money going on the books due to raises than they lose to free agency before they even can look at improving the team. Montgomery has a $22.5 million option for next season. So the assumption from D'backs fans is that this statement is a way to let Montgomery know he's not wanted, and hope he declines the option to look for multi year money eslewhere.

So, when we all talk offseason, and start asking for Sonny Gray trades, or $20+ million deals for ace starters, keep this story in mind. Small and mid market teams have a minuscule margin for error when they make big signings. Unless they work near perfectly, the consequences can wipe out a season or more.

Go Redlegs.