...But I think we're close. If we do it next year, I will buy the jersey of one (1) Houston Texans player, likely CJ Stroud.

Crazy amount of questions calls vs the Texans and especially the bills. Hopefully we get over the hump next year. It wasn’t even this crazy when Brady was playing besides deflate gate. But he did overcame 28-3

Starting to prepare for rookie drafts in dynasty fantasy football and watching a lot of rookie tape in this class and my god, we definitely should be leaving the draft with someone in rounds 3-5. The class is so deep we don’t need to spend high draft capital to get one of the names below. A 3rd at most but maybe even up to a 5th. Our offense without Mixon is just a depleted as when we are without Nico. It’s a necessary addition, imo.

In no particular order:

• Devin Neal
• Ollie Gordon II
• RJ Harvey
• DJ Giddens

Any of these four I would be very happy with. I think I like Devin Neal the most of the four, but probably going to be the most expensive. RJ Harvey is likely cheaper and looks awesome too.

And trust me, it’s o-line above everything, but the value of the rb’s in this class can’t be ignored. Give me an Rb in these later rounds over o-line and use rounds 1-2(3) on o-line.

Here is a team comprised of the best year for each position by a Texans Player I put a lot of emphasis on all pro selections and believe that this is a full comprehensive list!

Also, I fully expect Stroud to take that spot in the next two years.

Got the idea from @ Sheepo127 on Twitter

Honorable Mentions: LB 2015 Mercilus, CB 2016 Bouye, LB 2011 Barwin, QB 2023 Stroud, SS 2022 Pitre, CB 2024 Lassiter, DE 2024 Hunter, DE 2024 Anderson, S 2024 Bullock, S 2018 Reid

Source: Myself

About 85% sure I saw Chip Kelly at the airport leaving from Terminal C at IAH. Could have also just been another middle-age white dude 🙃

CJ Stroud MVP season confirmed!!!

JM Alexander talked to his sources. Some highlights:

On what the Texans are looking for:
One of the biggest decisions the Texans are trying to make, according to two league sources, is figuring out whether they want to run a spread/run-pass option type of offense or stay within Mike and Kyle Shanahan/Sean McVay system, which they’ve run the past two years.

On who’s leading the search:
In addition, sources told me that head coach DeMeco Ryans is leading the OC search, and he’s looking for someone who will be strong in the run game and complement and help Stroud.
Caserio is not taking the lead role on the search, but he’ll have input.

On CJ’s input in the search:
I get the sense the Texans will seek Stroud’s input before making the final decision, which could happen as soon as Sunday. The Texans want to build the offense around him and his skill set. Most important is making sure Stroud is comfortable with what the coordinator is running.

Towards the end of their tenure together, there was a sense around the building that Stroud and Slowik disagreed on how to best use him. It was nothing out of the ordinary. Just a disagreement of minds.

But there were some people who felt like Stroud was being boxed in and restricted in his second season under Slowik, which didn’t allow for Stroud to be himself. Whereas in his first season, the offense felt more tailored toward his strengths and he made a lot of his plays out of the structure of the offense.

On Chip Kelly:

After talking with someone who’s worked with Kelly, I get the sense that while they don’t expect him to be a college coach much longer and will eventually pursue a path back to the NFL, Kelly doesn’t necessarily feel he needs to leave Ohio State right now.

Much more info on the other candidates here: https://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/texans/article/offensive-coordinator-search-candidates-20104226.php

Do we dare discuss going in a different direction from Ka’imi? Week 12 was when I didn’t have the same confidence in his poise.

First time in 8 years (2016 Osweiler). We got swept last in 2021. This has gotta be the most interesting divisional match up in recent years (and past;Houston just rarely won). F*ck the Colts. We don't speak of TY either

Here’s my ranking of the offensive coaching candidates, because why not. Please note that this is a list of who I personally like the most rather than who I think is most likely to get hired. No Chip Kelly, because if you haven’t heard, he’s out as an option.

1. Jeff Nixon, Offensive Coordinator, Syracuse

Of the 7 candidates, Nixon is the only one who has been the play-caller for a recently successful offense. Syracuse finished the 2024 season with the #1 passing offense in CFB, which is particularly impressive, considering the lower talent level present on Syracuse’s roster. Much of the success of Nixon’s offense came from a well-designed short passing attack, something the Texans sorely missed this last season. Choosing Nixon would also mean a shift towards more power/gap concepts in the run game, though Nixon has said that he adjusts the scheme based on what opponent the team is playing that week. Overall, Nixon is an attractive candidate to me because he offers that coveted play-calling experience, has spent a lot of time at both the college and NFL levels, and represents a shift away from the wide-zone concepts that our players have struggled with.

2. Nick Caley, Tight Ends Coach and Passing Game Coordinator, LA Rams

Caley is a hot name on the market, as he has also received consideration for the Jets’ and Buccaneers’ open OC spots. Much of the excitement over him has to do with association with Sean McVay, as he would likely bring the coveted McVay offense to his new team. I wouldn’t quite call him a “McVay disciple” in a similar way to the other Rams assistants who have been hired away, though. Zac Robinson, who was lured from the Rams to become the Falcons’ OC last year, spent 5 years on McVay’s staff. Liam Coen, Mr. Duuvaaal himself, spent 4 years with McVay’s Rams. Caley, on the other hand, has only spent two years with McVay. Maybe Coen thought this was an issue too, because he elected to turn down an offer to become the Patriots’ OC last offseason in order to gain more experience with the Rams (or maybe because he believed the Patriots were a disaster waiting to happen). I have Caley at #2 because I think he’s probably the biggest boom-or-bust guy on the list. He’s clearly a very well-respected football mind among league circles, which makes him enticing, but I have my reservations about a guy who spent limited time in the McVay system and has never called plays at any point in his career.

3. Grant Udinski, Assistant Offensive Coordinator and Assistant QB Coach, Minnesota Vikings

Udinski is probably the most unique candidate, and has been even hotter than Caley during this coaching cycle, earning four total offensive coordinator interviews. I would suggest reading this article about him for some insight into the kind of person he is, but to summarize, Udinski is painted as an extremely intelligent (and bizarre) football fanatic, and someone the Vikings were probably hoping to hold onto to develop into Kevin O’Connell’s protégé. I like his fit with CJ Stroud, who reportedly enjoys constantly picking the brains of his coaches. He’s also only 29, which makes him less likely to be immediately hired away if he finds success in Year 1. McVay set the record as the youngest person to be named a head coach when the Rams hired him at age 30, so it would take a team having extreme faith in Udinski to take that kind of risk on him. Of course, his young age also comes with the downside that he has had a short coaching career, and like Caley, he’s never called plays.

4. Jerrod Johnson, QB Coach, Houston Texans

I would consider the first three candidates on this list to be Tier 1, so Johnson comes in at the top of Tier 2. Though he’s had a short coaching career like Udinski, Johnson was also a longtime journeyman QB in the NFL, which I personally would count as viable experience. The main selling point of Jerrod is his relationship with CJ. It’s clear that CJ respects him, and I’m sure the two of them would be able to work well together to run the offense. Johnson has also received interviews from other teams for their offensive coaching positions, so he appears to have a good reputation in league circles. On the other hand, Johnson oversaw CJ’s regression this year. Obviously there were many other things that factored into it, but I do feel like Johnson isn’t completely blameless. Add in the fact that he’s never called plays, and I’d feel a little uneasy with Johnson at the offensive helm for 2025.

5. Brian Johnson, Assistant Head Coach and Offensive Pass Game Coordinator, Washington Commanders

After Nixon at #1, we had to wait until #5 for another guy with play calling experience. Brian Johnson was most famously the offensive coordinator for the Eagles in 2023, but he has also held some OC spots in the NCAA as well. To put it bluntly, the Eagles had a disappointing offensive year in 2023, and fans of the team were happy to be rid of him at the end of the season. How much of the blame should go to Johnson, and how much should go to head coach Nick Sirianni? You could point to the Eagles’ success this year as an answer, but Johnson didn’t get the luxury of having Saquon Barkley last season. A similar but opposite dilemma arises with his role this season, as the Commanders’ offense performed way above expectations with a rookie QB. Can some of that success be attributed to Johnson, or is it all Kliff Kingsbury? The sentiment amongst people who are more familiar with Brian Johnson than I am is that he’s a great QB coach, but terrible play caller. Personally, if I’m going to roll the dice on my coordinator hire, I’d rather it be an up-and-comer, rather than someone who failed as recently as 2023.

6. Bill Lazor, Senior Offensive Assistant, Houston Texans

Even though he falls pretty low on my list, I’m not as down on ol’ Billy as most other Texans fans are. Though the numbers behind some of his previous offensive coordinator stops aren’t super inspiring, he also wasn’t given a ton to work with in most of those situations. He was also the QB coach for Nick Foles’ 27 TD / 2 INT season, so that’s something, right? Even so, I believe Lazor’s ceiling is as a league-average offensive coordinator, and I think the Texans should aim higher.

7. Thad Lewis, QB Coach, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Lewis stands alone in Tier 3. Even though I know it’s super popular to steal coaches from the Buccaneers right now, Thad Lewis is basically just Jerrod Johnson, but without the built-in connection to CJ Stroud. No thanks.

via his IG story
https://www.instagram.com/stories/brevinjordan9/3557135728008307130?utm_source=ig_story_item_share&igsh=bTEyMGZ4bjh0NnZ1

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/texans/article/offensive-coordinator-candidate-interviews-20070187.php?utm_source=marketing&utm_medium=copy-url-link&utm_campaign=article-share&hash=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuaG91c3RvbmNocm9uaWNsZS5jb20vc3BvcnRzL3RleGFucy9hcnRpY2xlL29mZmVuc2l2ZS1jb29yZGluYXRvci1jYW5kaWRhdGUtaW50ZXJ2aWV3cy0yMDA3MDE4Ny5waHA%3D&time=MTczODMzNjE0MTA5OA%3D%3D&rid=ZDQxYmU5ZDAtN2I1Zi00ZDJhLWE1NTctZjUxMjdlYjY3MTBl&sharecount=MQ%3D%3D

I wanted to take a dive into our 2024 season with an objective view to see what conclusions I could make. I wanted to see if what I thought I saw with my eyes held up to analytics. And mostly to rant on my opinions about this team. At some point I'll do another mock offeason like I did last year but I want to understand what the issues with the team are before I go into that.

All data is from PFF. Their grades aren’t perfect, I believe they are far better than anything else out there and do a good job of telling the story that traditional stats miss. I know this will be controversial to some people, but their year-to-year grades for sure tell you what is variance, what is expectation, and generally the best players in the league consistently grade high.

Team Summary

https://preview.redd.it/o1tsnzm8o8ge1.jpg?width=243&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=576963f2c61c3608f478ad9c2e800a1470a4b087

The biggest issue with our offense in 2024 was how terrible we were on first down. A lot of this issue can be attributed to the OL. Time-after-time Mixon would get hit 2 yards in the backfield and we’d be behind the sticks. I’ll get to Mixon in the running back section but with as bad as the OL was, he didn’t force enough missed tackles to make up for it. Second down was not much better constantly putting us in 3^(rd) and long. We finished with the 5^(th) most penalties which also contributed to the problem.

Quarterbacks

This year did not go how most of us thought it would for CJ. At times he lost all confidence in the offensive line and for good reasons. Watching these games, it felt like he was constantly under pressure, and when he did have a clean pocket, the receivers couldn’t get open. Early on, he had a solid connection with Diggs and Nico but struggled to find Tank. Just when Tank was getting involved, he got hurt too.

Stroud managed to stay healthy and play in every game this year. He finished the year completing 63.2% of his passes for 3,727 yards, 20 TD, 12 INTs and 52 sacks; all were worse than 2023 despite playing in 2 more games (63.9% / 4,108 / 23 / 5). Despite throwing 12 interceptions this year (vs 5 in 2023), Stroud decreased his turnover worthy play rate from 2.9% to 2.4% suggesting that last year his low number of INTs was a little luck and variance. I’d expect if he has a similar rate next year, he’s total number of INTs will fall around 9.

One of the reasons we all expected CJ to be better going into 2024 was that the receiving core came into this year as the strongest position group on paper. However, injuries decimated production and depth. Our top 3 receivers played a combined 35 (out of 51) games. Overall, from a QB perspective they improved from last year. Our contested catch rate improved from 43.5% to 51.2% and the drop rate decreased from 7.0% to 5.8%. His connections to Nico, Diggs, and Dell, when healthy, was fun to watch.

At a quick glance, there was a large increase in total sacks and hits for basically the same number of pressures; Stroud decreased his average time to throw (ATT) but also held the ball much longer on his average sack (he was able to scramble longer). His overall sack and hit numbers go with the narrative we all believe to be true but the total number of pressures being the same as 2023 is intriguing.

https://preview.redd.it/13cp9ckeo8ge1.jpg?width=619&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fbdf8307816a6258e20b6224c6b516720cf6628e

Quarterbacks have a large impact on whether a pressure becomes a sack; while the total number of pressures was the same as last year, CJ created less pressures himself. Where the issues come from are leading the league in missed block rates, losing quickly, and the guard play getting so much worse. Time and time again it seemed like there was an unblocked IDL in Stroud’s face and he had to bail out of the pocket.

https://preview.redd.it/c7rilwrko8ge1.jpg?width=687&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ae82d40bdcdbbaa629269bd7b406ada964b17db2

For me, the OL was a huge contributor to Stroud’s regression. His lack of confidence in the IOL showed throughout the season and will need to be fixed if we have a chance to compete with the best teams next year.

CJ is our quarterback for the future, he still has 3 years of cost-controlled years remaining. He is eligible for an extension after next year, and if I’m the Texans, I get a deal done with him earlier than later. The price always goes up for QBs and the earlier you can do an extension, the more creative you can be with the cap.

As for the other QBs on the roster, Mills is a good backup. He gets a lot of critique from 2022 and a rookie. With the rookie seasons Herbert, Stroud, Nix and Daniels have had recently, it’s easy to forget that this type of success isn’t the norm. Drafting CJ was absolutely the right call but that doesn’t mean Mills isn’t a solid QB. I’m happy to have him as our backup and hope after his deal is done in 2025, we’re able to resign him.

https://preview.redd.it/v78jvy9dp8ge1.jpg?width=610&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f2f72ec5aee7bd57b7240107087bc3413081944e

Keenum is a free agent and will most likely retire, if he doesn’t he’s not worth bringing back. QB isn’t a need for the Texans but if there is someone in the later rounds who we think can sit and develop into a solid backup, we should explore that option in case Mills goes elsewhere after next season.

Running Backs

Mixon was a great offseason addition last year and added an explosive element in the run and pass game to the offense that Singletary didn’t. Mixon had his best YPA since 2018 and most yards and TDs since 2021. If it weren’t for a week 2 hip-drop-tackle that caused him to miss 3 weeks and another in Week 16 that looked to slow him down a bit, Mixon could have set career highs in yards and touchdowns. Of the 45 running backs with more than 100 carries, Mixon ranked 29^(th) in yards-after-contact, 16^(th) in missed tackles forced, and 34^(th) in elusiveness. While none of these stats are particularly poor, they weren’t enough to overcome the poor run blocking he received.

Pierce isn’t the runner or receiver that Mixon is. While he posted an impressive 7.3 YPA (helped by a 92-yard run at TEN and a 54-yard run at NE), he remains a backup despite his near-1,000-yard rookie season. Pierce’s running style differs from Mixon’s, as our blocking schemes tend to lean more toward gap runs when he’s in the game. Pierce has one year left on his rookie deal with a cap hit of $1.303MM. He’s a solid and cost-effective backup but hasn’t been a great fit for our scheme since his rookie year. If we can get a later-round pick for him, I’d trade him. Teams like Dallas and Las Vegas run more gap concepts, and both are in need of a running back. Arizona, with James Connor set to hit free agency, also runs gap concepts at a high rate and could be another potential trade partner, alongside New England.

Ogunbowale was an average 3^(rd) down running back with below average pass blocking. He wasn’t needed as the emergency kicker this year and at almost 31 years old, he’s a pending free agent. I’m not sure the value he brings over a younger free agent or a later round draft pick. He’s probably worth bringing back on a veteran minimum deal, especially if we trade Pierce, but we should look at other options and see if we can upgrade this position.

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In the draft, we should target a running back. Either a 3^(rd) down back to replace Dare or a backup that could potentially replace Mixon after next year.

Wide Receivers

Our top 3 receivers missed a combined 17 games. This was supposed to be our strongest position group this year with Nico, Diggs, Tank, and potential breakouts in Metchie, and Hutchinson.

Nico’s 2024 season was outstanding when he was healthy. He played at an All-Pro level and I believe he’s firmly established himself as a top 5 wide receiver in the league. When he was hurt Stroud had 3 of his worst 4 graded games (with an average PFF grade of about a 60); in those games he did face good teams in Detroit and Green Bay and bad teams in New England and New York. Those games  also featured 4/5 of our lines worst graded pass blocking games so it might not all be about missing Nico, but that certainly doesn’t help. He played very well in the post season going for 12 catches on 16 targets for 203 yards and 1 TD. We’ll need to find another WR or two for next year to free up Nico. His best games came to start the season with Tank and Diggs on the field when he saw less double coverage and safety help.

Diggs was a solid addition to the offense and provided another reliable pass catcher for Stroud. Throughout his career, Diggs’ had two outlier seasons (2022 (89.1) and 2020 (90.2)) in terms of PFF grades but the rest of his 10 year career he consistently puts up a grade from 78-82; this year he ended at 79.0. While he’s still a solid pass catcher and ideally a high end number two. Diggs’ ACL injury dealt a big blow to our Super Bowl chances. At 31 years old and coming off an ACL tear, he poses a risk for the future. However, his market will likely be affected by the injury. Diggs has never relied heavily on speed, and for the most part, he’s aged gracefully, remaining relatively similar to his 25-year-old self. If we don’t bring him back, we will incur $16.644MM in dead cap next year. In fact, it could cost us more against the cap in 2025 if he's not on the roster. The injury could change our plans, but given how we reworked his contract, it seems like we were preparing to bring him back. Spotrac values him at $13.5 MM APY, while PFF places him at $16.00 MMAPY.

Tank was a dynamic presence in his rookie season and was absolutely dominant in the Kansas City game. With Nico and Tank on the field, it felt like our receiving corps could make enough plays to carry us deep into the playoffs. That changed with his devastating leg injury. I don’t need to go into detail, but "devastating" is an apt description. It now seems unlikely that Tank will play in 2025. His quickness, change-of-direction ability, and acceleration made him a major threat, and I hope he can return to form someday, though I have my doubts. For 2025, Tank can’t be part of the team-building plan, making wide receiver a glaring need. If he ends up on the PUP list next season, he’ll cost us $1.551MM against the cap, but 2025 won’t toll his contract, and we’ll have him for two more years.

This year was supposed to be a breakout year for Metchie and/or Hutchinson. Metchie saw more opportunities than Hutchinson and was slightly more effective. I’m slightly higher on him but both are closer to a WR4 than a WR2. It wouldn’t shock me if one of them does not make the roster next year.

Robert Woods was an average backup this season. There’s not much to say except that he was consistent and reliable but unremarkable. He’s a free agent, and at 33 years old, we should look to find a younger replacement.Wide receiver turned out to be a much bigger need than I thought it would be. I think we’ll bring Diggs back and potentially find bring in a cheaper back up WR like Tyler Johnson, Trent Sherfield, Brandon Powell, Elijah Moore. We’ll also need to pick up a WR in the draft.

https://preview.redd.it/qsu8tw78p8ge1.jpg?width=757&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3cd85198ed33cded7308966835082075b11b9553

Tight Ends

wasn’t particularly fond of re-signing Schultz, especially for the amount we ended up paying him. Schultz had his worst season since his rookie year, and his impact in the blocking game was minimal. Cutting him doesn’t make much sense, though. A pre-June 1st cut would cost us an extra $2.0MM on the cap this year, while a post-June 1st cut would save us just $0.5MM. For 2025, Schultz will need to step up and contribute significantly more in the passing game. If not, he could very well be a post-June 1st cut in 2026.

Tight End tends to be a position with a steep learning curve for rookies, and Cade Stover was no exception. He had some flashes of promise but ultimately looked like a typical rookie. I expect him to take a step forward next year. Given the struggles we saw from the tight end position overall, that development will be crucial.

Brevin Jordan didn’t contribute much in 2024, but we signed him to an extension through 2025, so hopefully, he can return healthy and become more involved in the offense.

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Schultz has two years remaining on his contract, with cap hits of $14.0MM in each of the next two years. He has no guaranteed salary in 2026, and if he doesn’t have a standout year, I expect him to be cut after next season, saving us significant cap space in 2026. Stover will enter year two of his rookie deal with very manageable cap hits ($1.144MM in 2025, $1.259MM in 2026, and $1.374MM in 2027). Brevin Jordan, originally slated to be a free agent, was given a one-year extension with a cap number of $1.552MM. I expect all three players to make the roster, though tight end isn’t a pressing need right now, this team could definitely benefit from adding a strong blocking tight end.

Offensive Line

I've already touched on the offensive line’s struggles and their connection to CJ's performance. But did the line actually take a step backward this year?

https://preview.redd.it/pjtqmnq2q8ge1.jpg?width=355&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7e05612f74b93710d2d0b290c0c2f6efa9e35c09

Watching the games, both run and pass blocking looked abysmal at times, and penalties—especially from Tunsil—seemed to spiral out of control. But what do the analytics say? When comparing the raw numbers, 2024 and 2023 were nearly identical. Both seasons saw a similar number of total pressures, but a higher percentage turned into hits or sacks. The team had the highest number of missed blocks in the league, which significantly impacted the overall performance. As a result, our pass blocking grade improved from 62.9 in 2023 to 66.9 in 2024, but we still ranked 19th. Our run blocking dropped slightly, from 57.3 to 57.0, ranking 25th overall this year. While the line was subpar last season, there were no substantial offseason moves to improve it. The hope was that the younger players would take a significant step forward—Patterson and Scruggs showed improvement, Mason regressed, and Green remained largely ineffective.

To win a Super Bowl, we’ll need to have a Top 10 offensive line. Line play raises the floor and ceiling of your offense and will allow us to be multi-dimensional.Laremy Tunsil ranked as the 18^(th) best overall OT in the league with a 77.2 overall grade. His 88.8 pass blocking grade ranked 4^(th) and his 73.4 run block grade ranked 21^(st). However, he was called for the most penalties amongst tackles this year. At 30 years old, he is still an elite and the only real solid spot on our line. He has always been an elite pass blocker and this was his best graded run blocking season of his career and second best pass blocking grade. He has always been called for a lot of penalties and he needs to clean that up. We can live the 11 or 12 that were called in 2022/2023 but over one a game is detrimental.

Tytus Howard ranked as the 29^(th) overall tackle in the league with a 70.1 grade (his grade/ranking took a hit with his performance at guard). He ranked 25^(th) in pass block grade, 43^(rd) in run block grade, and only had 4 penalties against him (tied for 6^(th) fewest). He’s a good enough right tackle for us to be successful as a line. Unfortunately, the interior was so bad he was shuffled inside. In 2023 he had an overall grade of 46.8 while playing inside and in 2021 he has a 51.4 grade inside. Nothing he has done should indicate he’s a guard. But that’s just the situation we are in. This year while playing inside he was an average level guard grading right around 60. For 2025, we’ll need to find a way to keep him at tackle where he is best.

The Blake Fisher draft pick came as a bit of a surprise to be but I liked it. Losing Charlie Heck and George Fant, we needed a swing tackle. Fisher was forced to play as part of the offensive line shuffling. He really looked like a rookie when he was out there. Fisher finished ranked 79/81 for offensive tackles and had two games where he graded above 60.0 (75.4 in 16 snaps u/NE and a 65.3 in 6 snaps u/NY). Year two for Fisher should be much better and I predict he’ll be a lot closer to an average tackle. However, his best value for this team is as a swing tackle and then potentially taking over for Howard in 2026 if we decide to move on for cap purposes.

Shaq Mason finished as the 43^(rd) ranked guard with a 65.6 overall grade, 3.3 points less than last season. He has trended downwards since the 2021 season and at times this year he looked unplayable. He was on pace for the most pressures of his career, had the lowest pass rush efficiency and set a career high in snaps (by 3) despite playing 300 less snaps due to injury. He was often beat quickly. At 31 years old, I hope he has a bounce back year but if I’m the GM, he’s not on the roster next year. Mason has shown more in the past and does still have some value in the league but I think Stroud lost faith in him and regaining that will be tough. I could see a team like New England being interested in Mason since they have so many holes and this isn’t the strongest free agent group for lineman. Cutting mason would save 2.017MM and trading him would save 3.167MM. If he’s traded, he’ll have 1.05MM in dead money if he’s cut and cap hits of 10.000MM in 2025 and 10.400 in 2026.

Kenyon Green finished the season ranked 68/68 with his 38.6 overall grade. He had one game above 60 (60.1 week 1) and was just as bad as he was in 2022. Going into year 4, Green hasn’t show me anything to show me he belongs on an NFL roster. Maybe he has some minimal trade value due to being a 1^(st) round pick. Cutting him would save 725k on the cap and trading him would save 2.880MM on the cap. A team like Chicago might take a low-risk gamble on him but in no way can he be a part of the 2025 Houston Texans.

Juice Scruggs ranked 23 amongst centers with a 63.0 overall grade. Year two was much better than year one in terms of grading and sacks allowed but he had a similar pass block efficiency while playing all interior spots this year. Typically, year 3 is a breakout year for linemen and we will need it from Scruggs. He has versatility to play all interior spots on the line so if we can find a replacement starter, he still has a lot of value on the team while on his cost-controlled rookie contract.

Jarrett Patterson finished ranked 22 amongst centers with a 63.2 overall grade. He was a better pass blocker and a worse run blocker compared to Scruggs. Week 16-18 were his best and most consistent games with grades all in the upper 60s. As he showed promise at center and looked well filling in for Kenyon Green at LG against Indy.  Like Scruggs, he was better in 2024 (63.1 vs 60.4). Year 3 will hopefully be a breakout, but we should also be looking to upgrade.

https://preview.redd.it/mfau1vfmp8ge1.jpg?width=778&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=48db5dccf31f794351b94e318bbc06b10fa644fc

If no changes are made, we go into 2025 with the following depth chartBLUE: Top 5-to-10 player at his position.

https://preview.redd.it/b3eaw8wjt8ge1.jpg?width=924&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4da4564df2f157bdd9b0bb79503bdb37ee2615a4

• GREEN: Really solid, dependable starter.
• YELLOW: Potential concern due to age, injury or contract.
• PURPLE: Unproven young player with BLUE potential.
• PINK: Unproven young player who could become a GREEN -- or maybe even a BLUE.
• RED: Bad, aka Kenyon Green
• BOLDED: Free Agent after 2025

Welcome to the Friday Free Talk Thread!

This is your space to discuss anything and everything. Whether it's Texans-related or not, feel free to share your thoughts, stories, and questions here. Just keep the conversation respectful and fun, as always.

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Per Aaron Wilson:

• Chip Kelly was considered, but wants to stay at OSU
• Nick Caley is the strongest external candidate
• internal candidates are seriously considered, especially Jerrod Johnson
• former head coaches are either not being considered or don’t want to come
• Popovich will likely be promoted to oline coach
• the decision is expected to be made next week
• they are determined to get to the AFC Championship game next season

https://youtu.be/Wvy0VEEgFAM?

Edit: I should have added this right away, but it was 4am, so… Aaron Wilson usually has reliable insider info and puts it out earlier than others. He has a very good track record. But he was also wrong when it came to some important stuff. So we should always be skeptical and not overreact until all is said and done.

If you could choose one receiver to sign to a one-year contract, who would you choose:

Diggs: Coming off a torn ACL. He may be ready to go week 1, but realistically how long would it be before he's 100%? Turns 32 in November. May not be a lock as #2 receiver.

DHop: Feel-good story coming back to Houston. Not as dominant as he used to be but still makes catches others can't. Coming off a Super Bowl appearance. Turns 33 in June.

I could see both of them filling a somewhat similar role on the field. Not an every down receiver, but a solid go-to for key possession plays.

Finally, Hopkins probably has no desire to return to Houston after what the Texans did to him and Diggs will likely take a better deal elsewhere, so this whole question is moot. Discuss anyway.

Hello all welcome to my novel. I have been a long time poster but my last username I deleted so I am an unfamiliar... face (name? ). Anyways prior to starting I recommend the disclaimer at the bottom just so you know kind of the guidelines I went by and me admitting I am very human. Would love a lot of discussion on this.

Current Depth Chart heading into offseason (free agents not present):

OFF:

QB: CJ Stroud

HB: Joe Mixon

TE: Dalton Schultz

WR: Nico Collins

WR: Xavier HutchinsonSlot: John Metchie

LT: LT (78.1)

LG: Tytus Howard (70.2* tackle grade)

C: Jared Patterson (64.1)

RG: Shaq Mason (60.5)

RT: Blake Fisher (44.7)

Depth:

QB: Davis Mills

HB: Dameon Pierce

WR: Robert Woods

TE: Cade Stover, Brevin Jordan

Tackle: Austin Deculus

IOL: Juice Scruggs (63), Kenyon Green (38.6)Defense

DE: Danelle Hunter, WAJ

DT: Faukasi (35.6), ??

WLB: Henry To'o To'o (62.2)

MLB: Azeez Al-Shaair (68.9)

SLB: Christian Harris (39.1) grain of salt, limited snaps coming off injury

NB: Jeremy PitreCB: Derek Stingley Jr, Kamari Lassiter

FS: Calen Bullock

SS: Jimmy WardDefense is lacking any notable depthStrategy going in

Summary:

OFFENSE: I won't go into the OL because its obvious its our biggest focal point. WR you want at least one promising WR whether it be a FA or draft. Moving forward you should just assume Schultz is a Y receiver because his blocking is terrible. Cade needs those downs, which is tough because you have to switch up the play calls to not display obvious tendencies via personel. If you trade Dalton Schultz you free up 11.5M in cap space (taking a 2M cap hit via spread pro rated signing bonus). My thought is there is a lot of talent at TE and in the first round one of those alpha TE's (who can block as well) are available you take it. What about IOL / WR ? Those positions aren't very top heavy as far as first round talent so you most likely would be reaching quite a bit on someone you might be able to trade up for in the mid 2nd.

DEFENSE: You are pretty set except interior DL. The interior DL was a weakness and despite some of the flashy plays / sacks- most of them were due to teams being so concerned with our elite edge rushers. No one graded above a 50. Plus most of your guys are out the door. Obviously offense is the most important thing to address, but I would spend a mid round pick on a DT, and perhaps even higher if you address OL/WR in free agency. Outside of that you might want a mid round insurance policy on the made of glass Jimmie Ward / Christian Harris. Both positions can have starter level talent found in the mid round (two positions that the current regime is elite at evaluating). OIher than that I would say 5th rd onward just go defensive depth (assuming you hit all the needs for OL in FA / higher up in the draft).

Free Agency

First off, here are positions of need: IOL, WR, DT

WR:Stefon Diggs (est. 13.5M avg annual salary): He was great pre ACL tear - on and off the field. I won't go too much into him because we are familiar. He is 32 coming off an ACL injury, but honestly a prove it deal at 13.5M given the injury might workout. He also could take a little less for more years (and anything long term under 10M isn't a huge issue if it doesn't workout). Here are some comparable talents and their AVG salary (and age when signed): Others: Tyler Locket 14.8M, DeAndre Hopkins (13M)

Keenan Allen: (est 11.1M salary) Still a top 30 WR and is a great big body / Possession receiver. A little injury history, but even at 32 his play style will age well into his mid 30s.

IOL:Name of the game is value and veterans. Even thought some of these guys are only able to contribute for 1-2 more seasons, it gives you a chance to develop the younger guys / make other moves long term for the OL. I am almost certain focusing on C because our biggest issue was call outs / communication which starts with the center. You instantly go from one of the worst in the league at that to top 10 with a guy with a ton of experience at a high level. There are some also good older veteran options at G to help rebuild this interior and get to where we need to be.

Trey Smith (est salary 20M range) cream of the crop. I would rather take someone a notch below and save about 10M especially given his blood clot complications in the past. Great player for the Chiefs.

Zack Martin (est 9.1M salary) Rated as a top 20 G at his age and could be a great veteran prescence. Also allows you to not rely on rookies / young players which this is the best quick fix for win now. Yes he is 34, but he just completed another outstanding season.

Ryan Kelly (est 10.1M salary) 67 overall grade last season at 31 years old. Should have 2 years left of high level play and having a vet at center can make an enormous impact on an OL.

Drew Dalman (est salary 11.5M) decent longer term option. He is one of the best zone run blockers in the league (if we stay that route with OC), and is decent as a pass blocker but definitely has room to improve.Will Fries (est salary 14.3M) Another long term option coming off a Tibia injury. 86 overall PFF grade up until that injury. My favorite on this list and is only 26. 14.3M is a lot for a young IOL, but with our desperation having one guard spot locked down at a very high level would be awesome.

Teven Jenkins (est 14M salary) his knock is staying on the field. If that hurts his salary enough and he is commanding closer to 10M hes a great high upside flyer to take given his downside is injury. I believe despite not having a good OL we will have a lot of depth given last years starters will most likely be riding the pine.

Brandon Scherff (est 6.7M salary) year younger than Martin. Same mentality as Martin above but a little bit of a discount and lower. He's a really good pass protector, but not a pro-bowl level player.

Coleman Shelton (est 5.5M salary) Before you shoot down a bears OL, he graded out at 66 per PFF and would be a definite upgrade over Jarret Patterson / Juice Scruggs for a decent price. This is definitely more of a value signing, but he is an average center which is an upgrade on this terrible OL.

Kevin Zeitler (est 8M salary) See Zack Martin. He was part of that great Lions OL and still played at a high level. His 86.8 PFF grade is the highest since 2014! so still playing at a pro bowl level. Again with age this is a bandaid fix, but talk about value.

Mekhi Becton (est 7M salary) got to play under the best OL coach in football (philly's jeff stoutland). He is actually better suited as a tackle but has played a lot of guard so the nice thing is here is if Fisher develops and Mehki can transition seamlessly to Tackle you might have your future tackle combo if you let Tunsil/Howard walk. Or a battle at RT between Mekhi and Fisher where he slides inside of Fisher looks better. The versatiliy here and relatively good value contract is definitely appealing.

Trystan Colon-Castillo (est 4.5M salary) This would be a under a radar signing. 6 year journeymen who did very well for cardinals this season with a top 10 PFF grade. Better run blocker than pass blocker. He is 26 so there is room to grow and you have a little flash in the pan risk, but could still be a solid guard for you. You sign to a 4 year not fully guaranteed deal. Didn't allow a sack, only 1 penalty,

Will Hernandez (est 6M salary) At 29 years of age this would be a slightly longer term deal (3 years). He had a 69.3 overall grade and would instantly be your best IOL.

DT:BJ Hill (est. 10M salary) Short term deal for a 29 year old. 70.2 PFF grade and was a lone bright spot on a not so good CIN defense. From a DT he is top 10 in solo tackles (39), top 5 in batted passes (4), 29th in stops, and top 20 in snaps for a DT in the league. This isn't Chris Jones or a pro bowl talent, but an upgrade of anyone we've had since DJ Reader. Perhaps a slightly better Sheldon Rankins. You will definitely see a bit more production given the DEs he would be playing with.

Calais Campbell (est 5M salary) Yes he's old. He's a little slower. He's just as strong and might still be one of the best run stuffers in the league. He's cheap and a solid addition to the rotation / a good veteran prescence. He plays in running situations as a part time player, but best better against the run than everyone else on the roster. This is a value signing and if it doens't workout no damage done.

**Current Cap Situation:**

Understanding the Current Cap Situation:

• Total Cap Liabilities: $283,730,566
• Top 51 Contracts: $276,881,676
• Team Cap Space: ($238,955)
• Estimated 2025 NFL Salary Cap: 275M

I won't bore you to death, but here is a list of moves (NOT ALL OF THEM) we can make to free up some cap room then we can jump into Free agency (the fun part):Cut Denico Autry immediately (9M)Cut Shaq Mason post june 1 saving 4MCut Eric Murray saving 3.7MRestructure Pitre (extend as well) and Laremy Tunsil. Save about 13M total hereOK I am done going into boring details, just assume the Texans free up 35M of cap space to use in Free agency. They also lose Autry, Mason, & Murray in the savings.

Free Agency Strategy

Well, first and foremost extend Stingley:

Current Contract Details:

• Duration: 5 years
• Total Value: $125 million
• Average Annual Salary: $25 million
• Guaranteed: Approximately $90 million
• Cap hits, 10, 13, 18, 23, 28 (each year in millions)

So this will eat up 10M of the savings leaving 20M left. Next WR. I would pass just because of the limited funds and the ability to find in the draft or sign someone more inexpensive post June 1 / training camp cuts. This then becomes a pretty big priority in free agency. I know you Madden guys will hate this, but look up at that cap availability and how bad our OL sucked last season.IOL. This is the focus, but cannot go for top of the market for cash reasons.

MY SIGNINGS:

Kevin Zeitler G (6M Cap hit). See explanation back in list of free agents.

Ryan Kelly, C (8M)

Calais Campbell (3M Cap hit) - just such a bargain and if he falls off its so littleYeah everyone is old, but we need veterans in the IOL to balance out all the young guys we have / will be drafting. Campbell is just a he's ring chasing and super cheap so why not have a great run stopper (who is still great at that) come in the door. I know overall it's a bit boring of a FA. The rest of the space you can spend on depth in the summer etc.

DRAFT

1st round options

Tyleik Williams - 6'3 327 DT. Good movement skills for his size and has a pretty high ceiling. He is a bit inconsistent and fundamentally gets too high or extra not needed steps which makes him not as effective as a bull rusher. His hands need a lot of work which doesn't work well with his arms that are short for a man his size. Very strong and gets off blocks well. Many moments of collapsing the pocket. Full arsenal of pass rush moves and a history of batting down passes. A few scouts have compared him to Maliek Collins.

**Colston Loveland - 6'5" 245 TE. Tyler Eiffert comparison and is a solid pass weapon in the passing game. He could give you exactly what Dalton Schultz does BUT he is a pretty damn good run blocker and has a lot of run blocking reps playing at Michigan. With that he has good physicality and length to pass block. This is a more complete Dalton Schultz which is a luxury at this point - that being said he's here becase he's BPA and all the other guys on the board would be CB, Edge, or OT.

Emeka Egbuka - 6'1" 206 - if you watched Ohio St in the playoffs then I don't really need to say much. 2nd leading receiver in Ohio St history. Battled health issues and is exclusively a slot guy. Great run blocker for his size. He had many free releases due to slot / off ball alignment which releasing without that might be an issue for him at the next level. His ceiling is a poor man's Amon-Ra-St Brown. I personally would rather bring Diggs back and just focus on the trenches here, but without IOL prospects and only DT- I could go with this pick as a BPA type pick and a Tank Dell / Stefon Diggs replacement. Metchie can do all the things he can and could make another jump and be in the range Egbuka ends up in if he doesn't go off and gets close to that Amon Ra St Brown. Torn on this one.

Walter Nolan - 6'3" 293 DT. His measurables / physicality won't jump off the page, but he's a football player. Very explosive and agile to beat blockers consistently. Makes plays without being schemed for. One of the best play making DL in the entire draft. Most of his weaknesses are technique related so a good defensive coach could get him right very quickly (do we have any good defensive coaches ??? ). Twitched up and ready to wreck havoc on opposing offenses (this guy is my favorite if available).

Xavier Watts - 6'0 203 S. Ok I know - DB isn't a need. This dude is all over the field - near the ball every. single. play. Very quick feet and is a DB that is fast with control / agility. He is a guided missile to the ball - seriously throw on the tape. He is a top 25 prospect in this draft and is compared to Landon Collins. He is a quicker Kyle Hamilton without the size. If you want to really see what he's about watch the national championship. This would be a luxury and just giving up on Jimmie Ward (which I am ok with given the injury history), but he's a BPA so thought I would mention him.

2nd Round Options

Donavan Jackson 6'4" 320 IOL - Ok now we are at the fun part of the draft- Interior offensive linemen (grunts) ! Out of a ohio st, best IOL on the team, and just was really damn good. Understands the game at an NFL level already, explosive, and is a people mover. You can still read below but this is my guy if he's on the board.

TJ Sanders 6'4" 284 DT. Quick off the ball and violent. Long arms and arsenal of moves. Pad level isn't great and doesn't have good lateral movement.Tate Ratledge 6'6" 320 IOL - Backup pick if Jackson isn't available - and thats not a huge disappointment. Read Donavan Jackson, but more as a solid contributor than potential pro-bowl level.Jayden Higgins (6'4" 217 WR) Very quick and great route running. Has a great catch radiusSavion Williasm (6'5" 225 WR) didn't have great opportunities at TCU but great athlete with great size. Could be another big guy on the outside for Stroud while Diggs (or Metchie / whoever we bring in) works the middle.

Jalen Royals (5'11" 210 WR) One of the most talented WRs in the country but coming off a foot injury, but, it's almost fully healed already. Very good Athlete who can move all around the field.

**jack bech WR - led LSU in receiving as a freshmen, really broke out at TCU. Biggest issue is speed so separation could be an issue in the NFL. He does everything else well and is just a football player. He produces against the very best, good run blocker, really solid hands, and he would easily be a 1st round pick if he had the speed. That being said there have been many successful WRs who excelled despite average speed at the WR position.

**Tyler Booker G - 0 issues when it comes to fundamentals / the cerebal part of the game. He just has some physical limitations. It's not like he is a complete physical liability, but that is going to be his battle at the next level in the NFL. He'll eventually be an above average starter in the NFL, and if the draft preperation / being in an NFL offseason can help his size and explosiveness you could see him really blossom into something a lot more solid.

Omarr Norman-Lott (6'3" 315 DT) Has the natural size with the physical abiligies. Very explosive with great strength. Great hands as well. Consistency and injury issues is why he dropped (sometimes a bit too much height in pad level)3rd Rd OptionsDeone Walker (6'7" 340 DT) Obvious length but comes with high pad level (bad). Great with hands but not the most explosive. Great upside as an interior pass rusher. Luxury project, but this type of upside typically gets drafted sooner so worth noting.

Kaden Prather (6'3" 209 WR) Great at working the middle of the field ad attacking the ball / being physical.Alfred Collins (6'5" 313 DT) He disrupts opposing offenses at a high level, but doesn't have the production numbers to show it. Has an immense upside as well.

Shermar Turner (6'4" 300 DT) Threw a longhorn out there, time for an aggie. Disruptive and versatile defensive lineman with the ability to excel at multiple positions across the front. He combines a quick first step with impressive strength, allowing him to penetrate gaps and create consistent backfield pressure. Turner’s hand usage and lateral movement make him effective against both the run and pass, while his motor and physicality enable him to shed blocks and pursue plays with intensity. His agility and athleticism for his size are notable, giving him the flexibility to line up inside or on the edge. Turner has a tendency to play with a high pad level at times, which costs him in leverage battles while also lacking consistency in the run game at times.

Tory Horton (6'1" 187 WR) Makes plays. The ESPN top 10 catches while flying down the field. He is a deep threat the Texans have had a void of for a while. He only runs a few routes so would have to work on route running, but he could contribute right off the bat.

**My Draft:**

This is assuming we make the free agency signings I mentioned earlier. I won't play the trade game just to keep it straight forward.

1st RD: the only true needs that are available are WR and DT, both positions are really deep in this draft, but I feel like WR has a lot more to choose from that are close to Ohio St receiver Egbuka. I really don't like whats available here and would prefer a trade back (but no trades in this exercise). I am going to go Egbuka despite originally picking Walter Nolan.

My first round pick: Egbuka, WR Ohio St2nd RD: I love the receivers here, but lets be real we need a new starter at all 3 IOL positions

My second round pick: Donavan Jackson, IOL Ohio St

3rd Rd: I like Kaden Prather just because the idea of two big WRs outside and having Metchie work the slot I think gives us the most complete WR group we can field. I was close to going Egbuka 1st, Donavan Jackson 2nd, and one of the DTs in the 3rd. I just think offense is more important in this draft so went with the WR in 1 st and DT here.

3rd RD: Alfred Collins, DT

UPDATED DEPTH CHART:

OFF:

QB: CJ Stroud

HB: Joe Mixon

TE: Dalton Schultz

WR: Nico Collins

WR: Egubka

Slot: John Metchie

LT: LT (78.1)

LG: Kevin Zeitler

C: Ryan Kelly

RG: Donavan Jackson

RT: Tytus Howard

Depth:

QB: Davis Mills

HB: Dameon Pierce,

Dare Ogby

WR: Robert Woods, Xavier Hutchinson

TE: Cade Stover, Brevin JordanTackle: Austin Deculus, Blake Fisher

IOL: Juice Scruggs (63), Kenyon Green (38.6), Jarrett Patterson

Defense

DE: Danelle Hunter, WAJ

DT: Faukasi (35.6), Calais Campbell, Alfred Collins (obviously 1 extra here, whoever wins out)

WLB: Henry To'o To'o (62.2)

MLB: Azeez Al-Shaair (68.9)

SLB: Christian Harris (39.1) grain of salt, limited snaps coming off injury

NB: Jeremy Pitre

CB: Derek Stingley Jr, Kamari Lassiter

FS: Calen Bullock

SS: Jimmy Ward

DISCLAIMERS

Not going to go deep into the depth chart but only big contributors / key reserves. I use PFF for linemen because it’s actually fairly accurate. Some of these write ups I did read a few different resources (and did watch in college myself) so I’ll definitely admit to some plagiarism. For free agency, those are projects salaries and could be off a bit. For our salary cap situation / how much we can save that's a lot of guess work. I tried to be realistic as possible, but I am human and no longer work in football. The draft I read a few mock drafts, studied players / tiers, and did a few mock simulations. Please don't argue that X won't be available - we will know closer to the draft and again its guess work in January. I also am not saying we go after particular players in free agency or the draft but more of depicting a strategy on how I would approach / they would possibly approach. My draft selections were based off of my FA signings and how deep positions are in this draft. I also leaned offense for obvious reasons. Whatever OC we have I'd alter this too based off the scheme. A good chunk of the NFL uses the ZBS / west coast offense so its a safe assumption in my opinion. For any errors feel free to correct me! Lastly, if this is appreciated then closer to free agency I'll do another one, and possibly a draft breakdown the week of the draft.