I came across this article discussing Trump's plan to reduce grocery prices ([Trump Explains How He Plans To Bring Grocery Prices Down: Do Experts Think It Will Work?]), and I couldn't help but feel conflicted about its tone and conclusions. While it acknowledges Trump's campaign promise to lower consumer costs, it also seems to hedge by saying that price reductions are "unlikely to be realistic" and that just slowing inflation would be considered a win. This strikes me as a cop out on a promise, given it was often cited by supporters.

Here's what stood out to me:

• The article explains that energy costs make up only a small percentage of grocery prices, so even if fuel prices drop, grocery prices likely won't.
• It suggests that Trump's proposed tariffs and other policies could actually increase costs instead of reducing them.
• The experts cited seem skeptical that meaningful price reductions will happen, yet the tone of the piece almost gives Trump a pass by reframing his success as slowing inflation instead of achieving actual reductions which seems disingenuous as inflation has already slowed substantially under Biden's last year.

My question is:

1. Do you think this article is softening expectations in a way that could be seen as propaganda?
2. Is it fair to set such low expectations for a campaign promise that helped win an election?

I'm curious to hear your thoughts. Are the experts' points valid, or does this feel like an attempt to shift the goalposts for political reasons?

Thank you in advance.

I would like to discuss how to take a snapshot of America today and what metrics we should use to easily measure the incoming administration’s successes or failures in four years time, or a way to track it over time, that makes sense for the everyday American.

Based on the last election cycle, and the import given to economic interests, I have compiled a few benchmarks that were big economic factors in the prior election and their prices today, January 14, 2025.

1.) Gas Price, gallon of 87 octane: $2.69

2.) Dozen grade A eggs: 2.99

3.) Current 30 year fixed rate mortgage: 6.93%

4.) Current inflation rate (Dec 2024): 2.70*

5.) Current social security eligibility/retirement age: 62 (https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/planner/agereduction.html)**

6.) current declared wars: 0***

*inflation rates are hard to pin down. Whatever metric that’s used should apply to the most people, not simply corporate interests.

** Variable depending on benefit election.

*** It is very hard to determine a good definition of a modern war.

Is there a better set of benchmarks, or things that one should add to these, to measure success or failure of the new administration at the time of the next election cycle?

Democrats are electable in the South at a state level, examples include Edwards in LA, Beshear in KY, and Warnock + Ossoff in GA. But in the 2028 presidential election, should the Democratic Party go the Bill Clinton route and elect two moderate Southerners to gain appeal in swing states like GA, NC and AZ, and possibly flip another state or two?

I've been wondering: should public schools require firearm safety education? By that, I mean teaching students about gun safety. After some thought and a few discussions, I'm still undecided. What makes it hard for me to settle on an opinion is this: Does firearm safety education actually reduce gun violence, or does it unintentionally encourage rebellious thoughts about using firearms among teenagers?

Third party voters have always seemed to catch flak from both sides. At least some people blamed Green Party voters for Al Gore's loss in 2000, for example. Some also consider Ross Perot's 1992 run to have sucked votes away from HW Bush in 1988, though I'm pretty sure later studies have proved this wasn't the case. Either way, as an individual, is a third party/independent vote equivalent to throwing a vote away for the "lesser evil" candidate? If so (or not so), why?

Of course this refers most visibly in the national election, but local elections where the two major parties have a political chokehold also apply.

The document is expected to be the final Justice Department chronicle of a dark chapter in American history that threatened to disrupt the peaceful transfer of power, a bedrock of democracy for centuries, and complements already released indictments and reports.

Trump for his part responded early Tuesday with a post on his Truth Social platform, claiming he was “totally innocent” and calling Smith “a lamebrain prosecutor who was unable to get his case tried before the Election.” He added, “THE VOTERS HAVE SPOKEN!!!”

Trump had been indicted in August 2023 on charges of working to overturn the election, but the case was delayed by appeals and ultimately significantly narrowed by a conservative-majority Supreme Court that held for the first time that former presidents enjoy sweeping immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts. That decision, Smith’s report states, left open unresolved legal issues that would likely have required another trip to the Supreme Court in order for the case to have moved forward.

Though Smith sought to salvage the indictment, the team dismissed it in November because of longstanding Justice Department policy that says sitting presidents cannot face federal prosecution.

Is this a reasonable assessment?

https://www.justice.gov/storage/Report-of-Special-Counsel-Smith-Volume-1-January-2025.pdf

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/01/14/jack-smith-trump-report-00198025

Should state Jack Smith's Report.

Which American politicians, whether rising stars or established juggernauts, have had the largest downfalls? You can make a case for many people, especially in the field of presidential candidates. It seems that this has happened a lot lately.

During the Biden administration, Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema became well known as the most centrist members of the Senate Democratic Caucus, they were the expected swing votes in any piece of party line legislation. Now amongst Republican Senators, there's a general consensus that Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins are the main swing votes in the second Trump administration.

However, at some point the GOP trifecta in the Presidency and Congress will end, and when that happens the Democrats will seek to pass some sort of legislation, with likely some of it being party line. When that happens, whether it be in 2028, 2032, etc, who do you expect to be the new swing vote Senator, the next Joe Manchin.

Is it someone who is already in the Senate like Angus King or John Fetterman for example, or is it someone who has yet to be elected?

Yesterday I seen an article on Homan “trumps Border Czar” discussing with house representatives, the funding for his mass deportations and how he will need it?

And questioned if in the current new congress would actually be able to give it to him seeing on how this Republican Congress majority is smaller than the one trump started on 4 years ago?

After reading this it seems that certain states are assisting in funding other states. Given how each states pays into the federal system, is the current allocation of funding fair and equitable? Why or why not?

https://www.moneygeek.com/financial-planning/taxes/states-most-reliant-federal-government/

This question had been in the back of my mind for a while, but this news story brought it to the forefront.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFPy197oWi8#t=7m48s

https://theintercept.com/2025/01/09/facebook-instagram-meta-hate-speech-content-moderation/

So the timestamped section, for those whose local YouTube restrictions block it, is essentially saying you're allowed to call a group superior, but not inferior. How is that at all compatible?

If you're saying group [A] is superior to group [B] (even if group [B] is as broadly defined as, let's say, everyone outside group [A]), isn't that mathematically equivalent to calling group [B] inferior to group [A]?

I get the emotional appeal of positive stereotypes. I've been the subject and harbourer of them, sometimes at the same time like when I was working in China as one of their Canadian guests. But intellectually I'm reluctant to treat them as meaningfully distinct from negative stereotypes, except that they occasionally correlate with a more cheerful tone.

What say you, Reddit? Am I missing something here?

His aggressive rhetoric and unilateral actions often make me wonder if he will seriously alienate allies and provoke adversaries.

Is it possible that his approach might lead to a realignment of international relations, especially with countries like China and Russia?

Why are pro-Israel right wing political parties such as Germany's AfD and the US's Republican Party often described as antisemitic? Alternatively, why have traditionally antisemitic right wing political parties such as Germany's AfD and the US's Republican Party become staunchly pro-Israel?

Elon Musk recently endorsed and interviewed Alice Weidel, the chancellor candidate for the far-right Alternative for Germany party. The party is often described as an antisemitic neo-Nazi party. But they strongly support Israel.

The party is radically opposed to immigration, and last week Elon Musk said that “only the AfD can save Germany” — especially when it comes to refugees and other migrants from Muslim countries. At the same time, the right-wing populist party’s leadership is staunchly pro-Israel.

Furthermore, rather than being proud of the connection, the AfD rejects any association with Adolf Hitler and even frames him as a member of their opposition's ideology.

She also described Hitler as an "antisemitic socialist".

This isn't just one member of the AfD and it's not a short term political pivot. The AfD has overwhelmingly supported Israel for many years.

Yet the party derided for anti-Semitic, xenophobic views redolent of the Nazis is also staunchly supportive of Israel, one of a number of right-wing populist parties in Europe that have tried to make common cause with Israel’s tough stance toward terror and self-styled position as a forward bulwark against Islamic extremism.

Why are Jews, traditionally considered a reliably blue voting demographic in the US, shifting towards right wing parties?

German Jewish support for the AfD has been growing rapidly since its humble beginnings several years ago.

A small number of German Jews gathered Sunday to launch their own group within the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, calling themselves the “Jews in the AfD.”

Elon Musk has been described as propagating antisemitic views on X, but regularly receives praise and support from Jonathan Greenblatt, the head of the Anti-Defamation League, even at the height of controversy.

Yet even as companies including IBM, Apple and Disney are pulling their ad dollars in protest, the ADL is continuing to buy ads on X — and Greenblatt has shifted to praising Musk, this time for what he says is a meaningful effort to fight antisemitism.

The same thing applies to Musk's close political ally, Donald Trump. Trump has been described as a white nationalist, but Israelis overwhelmingly supported him in the recent US election.

Poll shows Israelis massively favor Trump over Harris in US election

Why are left wing Jews being described as antisemitic by right wing Jews and non-Jews alike?

Elon Musk recently criticized George Soros after he received the Presidential Medal of Freedom from Joe Biden.

"George Soros’s hatred of humanity includes Israel btw," Musk posted on X referencing a news story with the headline, "Israeli ambassador to UN slams George Soros for funding Hamas-supporting NGOs: Report."

And Trump attorney Alan Dershowitz said this about Bernie Sanders in 2021:

"But look what the internet allows us," Dershowitz continued. "...you get the social media, supporting Hamas, The New York Times supporting Hamas, and it sends a very powerful message: do it again, kill children...kill civilians...commit war crimes, you'll prevail on this because of the anti-Semitism...you can be a Jew and an anti-Semite. Biden has made some statements positively I commend them for that. But Bernie Sanders—who's Jewish—is a self-hating Jew, a self-hating Jew who is willing to see Israel be defeated militarily by a terrorist group because he's on the hard left."

How does right wing American and German support of Israel differ from the traditional military and financial support provided by left wing parties?

Dershowitz became a household name as a member of OJ Simpson's "Dream Team." Besides Donald Trump and OJ Simpson, he's also represented prominent figures such as Julian Assange, Jeffrey Epstein and Harvey Weinstein. He is currently working to legally defend Israel.

I’m Putting Together a Legal Dream Team to Defend Israel. With its arrest warrants, the International Criminal Court disgraces the rule of international law.

This might not be necessary as the Republican led US House of Representatives recently voted to sanction the leaders of the ICC.

The bill seeking sanctions against members of the International Criminal Court over its issuing of arrest warrants against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defense minister Yoav Gallant passed 243-140 in the Republican-led House of Representatives on Thursday, marking the body’s second vote in favor of the legislation.

We're in a moment of History that I really didn't expect, and I'm continually shocked by how disconnected I am from the rest of the voting public in the United states. In that, I think it's probably time to expect the unexpected, and get out of my own confirmation bias.

What is the likelihood we see any amendments repealed during this next Congress, like the 19th, or something else we take for granted as a right?

Justices potentially appeared open to several options including issuing an administrative stay of a preliminary order which will go past January 19, when law goes into effect so Trump can intervene via a political solution.

It is also possible a significant majority of the Supreme Court will adopt a mid-level scrutiny [reasonable standards requirements] finding that the case primarily involves a foreign adversary and private information of 170 million Americans which can later be used to influence or even blackmail one or more of them. They could find that although the First Amendment is implicated with respect to American users, it is merely incidental to the data storage issue and secondary to PRC's potential manipulative actions which US seeks to prevent.

Were the court to adopt the government's position [a ban absent a divesture of the platform] notwithstanding First Amendment Rights; with a strict scrutiny standard U.S. could possibly meet the test [compelling state interest] based on National Security Importance.

Is Tik Tok platform as we know likely coming to an end?

Transcript below:

https://www.techpolicy.press/transcript-us-supreme-court-oral-argument-on-tiktok/

Alexander Smirnov an ex-FBI informant with ties to Russia led republicans on a wild goose chase and got them to repeat Russian disinformation. He was recently sentenced.

This along with the 3 hunter biden laptops keeps coming up as Russian disinformation. How should right wing media in the usa react to being used to spread these false stories?

https://apnews.com/article/hunter-biden-fbi-informant-alexander-smirnov-burisma-7bedb315c86580b5d88b07f4fe315207

(Pay Wall) https://www.thedailybeast.com/man-who-reportedly-gave-hunters-laptop-to-rudy-speaks-out-in-bizarre-interview

It seems as though Trump has some lightning-in-a-bottle ability to bring in a lot of low propensity voters as well as the Republican base in general.

Barring some new constitutional amendment allowing him to run for a third term (which is unlikely), Trump is not eligible to be on the ballot for president anymore.

For the next couple of elections (2028, 2032), how do you foresee him not being on the ballot affecting Republican turnout? Democratic turnout even? (Possibly less motivation from Anti-Trump voters).

The Panama Canal runs at full capacity. And the biggest freighters are too large for the canal. Waiting times for the ships get longer every year. Have we reached a critical point, where we have to improve the passage from one ocean to the other for the sake of cheaper trade and for the sake of more competition?

Do Americans mocking Trump overlook the strategic importance of controlling the Northwest Passage and the untapped resources of a peaceful island over three times the size of Texas?

With Greenland seeking independence from Denmark and facing economic challenges, what if the U.S. offered every Greenlander $1 million—only 56,000 people—for a total investment of $56 billion? That’s less than 7% of the annual defense budget, a one-time move to bolster U.S. security and offer local leaders an unprecedented chance for development.

If Greenlanders held a referendum, could this outside-the-box solution spark genuine interest or is it just a crazy idea? Any Greenlanders here—what’s your take?

Is it just a pragmatic ruling by a court trying to respect the incoming president's mandate? Certainly the voting majority wouldn't want to see their candidate in jail or even in the midst of a fight to send him to jail.

Or is the rule of law significantly degraded because it further places a elected official in some special category separate from other citizens?

What will Trump be doing to mitigate future wildfires for not only California but the rest of the Western United States? How will he pay for it? Having criticized Newsom for not “cleaning the floors” of California’s 33 million acres of forest land, what will / should Trump propose to help the Citizens of the western United States?

In the past few days there were extremely high profile, dangerous, and expensive wildfires that tore through several neighborhoods in the greater LA area. While this was certainly a "natural" disaster, there seems to be a lot of blame being directed towards the local and state officials both due to the wildfires response & lack of preparation.

Will this impact the political career (and ambitions) of Gavin Newsom? Will this continue the rightward shift of California as seen in the 2024 Presidential election? Will we see meaningful changes to environmentalist policies to allow for more aggressive fire prevention techniques?

Why are most politicians in their 60s or older? It seems like the people running a country and making major decisions tend to be much older than the generations who will actually be carrying the country forward. Why do we mostly see older individuals in political leadership roles, and what does that mean for younger generations?

After five members of the Supreme Court were unwilling to stop the sentencing process, Trump was sentenced with an "Unconditional Discharge"

Questions:

• Given that a custodial sentence was never likely in this case, what other sentences would have been practical in this situation?

• Four Supreme Court Justices seemed willing to waive sentencing. How likely is that block of Justices going to be able to pick up a fifth for other Trump related court cases?

• There are certified limits imposed on felons in the United States. How likely is it that they will be enforced once Trump leaves office in his case?

A lot of YIMBYist "Dems", especially on Twitter have this unanimous hatred of states such as California and New York while having this deep-seated love of states like Texas and North Carolina.

These people are very much socially centrist and have a complete disdain of anything that doesn't fit into the Abundance Agenda.

These individuals also seem to blame almost all social and economical issues solely on the issue of housing, arguing that everything from CoL to decreased fertility would be singlehandedly solved by just increasing housing?

But at the same time, from the outside looking in, it strikes me that many of these individuals seem to be implying that all protest movements are false, that popular protest is ineffective and will never work, and seem to live in a world completely separated from history. Almost implying that we should willingly let Gay marriage be repealed, let Israel just bomb Palestine until there's nothing left, let abortion rights be made illegal.

Yet for some reason these same people seem to keep voting Democrat, why is that?

From limited research into the 2024 wildfires in Hawaii, Colorado and Wyoming, I saw that FEMA compensated 75% of fire fighting costs through a Fire Management Assistance Grant for their respective wildfires? The Thompson fire in California in 2024 also received 75%… However, California will receive 100% of their firefighting costs for the next 3 months for these specific LA fires?

The AI developers are touting AGI (artificial general intelligence) in 2025-2030 (depending who you believe). With AI actively starting to replace some jobs in 2025.

One of the obvious next steps are AI housed inside of a humanoid robot - at which point all except the most niche positions can be done by a robot.

Do you think UBI is a big part of the solution and how do you see the transition happening?

We often hear stories from former staffers and whatnot about how sometimes Presidents like Reagan left most administrative tasks/decisions to his staff and had more of a hands-off Presidency. But which Presidents actually took most matters into their own hands ? Which Presidents had an iron grip over their administration ?

I was just wondering about this because Trump supporters are apparently arguing over the H1b visa. Presumably, a guy like Elon Musk wants to keep the visa in place because you can pay these workers less. But at the same time, the "America First" movement doesn't want to bring in foreign workers - they argue those jobs should be going to Americans.

But really, this is a larger problem. Trump campaigned on tariffs. If the Republican Party is the party of business...won't tariffs be damaging to businesses' profit margins?

Just wondering about this balancing act, if "American industry" can really be "restored," and all that kind of stuff.

It has recently been reported that Justice Alito and President Elect Donald Trump spoke on the phone, less than 24 hours before Trump's lawyers filed a petition with the Supreme Court to prevent Trump being sentenced on his 34 felony convictions in a New York State court.

Alito has publicly stated that the conversation was an effort to secure a position in the Trump administration for a lawyer who had previously clerked for Alito. The Trump transition team has not commented on the call.

Does the close timing of these events suggest the possibility of collusion between the petitioner in a Supreme Court case, and (at least) one of the Justices? Or is this likely just a matter of coincidence?