/r/CFBAnalysis

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A place to statistical analysis of college football.

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  • /r/CFB Analysis Info
  • Subreddit Goal: To create a place that encourages discussion and analysis of college football strategy, statistics, and results. Imagine if /r/cfb, /r/statistics, /r/math and /r/footballstrategy had a weird four-way baby.
  • Examples of Good Posts: Data visualizations, data and data sources (to share with the class), any other numeric analysis of players, teams, conferences, etc. Links to other persons' analysis is okay, but text-posts only. Original content is encouraged!
  • Example of Bad Post: ESPN-like "analysis", Gossip, rumors, arrest reports, etcetera.
  • The focus of this subreddit is currently statistical analysis of college football - the college football counterpart to /r/NFLStatHeads.


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/r/CFBAnalysis

5,869 Subscribers

3

Game film archive?

Hi y’all, Im looking for open data sources for game film across multiple teams. Any recommendations?

0 Comments
2024/04/30
15:54 UTC

2

List->Dataframe Formatting Challenge: Python/Pandas and Sports API Data

Hello,

I would like to create a dataframe where each row corresponds to a single column with the normal columns such as gameid, home team, away team, and similar to the format of the 'Games and Results' section, have each different stat category be represented with home rushing attempts, etc

Here is the code I have (stat is the list where all the data from team game stats is stored in stat

I have also attached the output for the first index in the stat list to give an idea of the format (this will be at the very bottom)

stat = []

respons = games_api.get_team_game_stats(year=2016, week=10)

stat = [stat,respons]

I greatly appreciate any help with this as I have tried chatgpt and bard to help out with the formating, but to no avail.

(These are the columns for the Games and Results table I also have, these are the sorts of columns I want)

Id Season Week Season Type Completed Neutral Site Conference Game Attendance Venue Id Home Id Home Team Home Conference Home Division Home Points Home Line Scores[0] Home Line Scores[1] Home Line Scores[2] Home Line Scores[3] Away Id Away Team Away Conference Away Division Away Points Away Line Scores[0] Away Line Scores[1] Away Line Scores[2] Away Line Scores[3] Home Point Diff Total Points

(The below code is an index of the list which contains all the games)

{'id': 400868954,

'teams': [{'conference': 'American Athletic',

'home_away': 'home',

'points': 28,

'school': 'Navy',

'school_id': 2426,

'stats': [{'category': 'rushingTDs', 'stat': '4'},

{'category': 'passingTDs', 'stat': '0'},

{'category': 'kickReturnYards', 'stat': '38'},

{'category': 'kickReturnTDs', 'stat': '0'},

{'category': 'kickReturns', 'stat': '2'},

{'category': 'kickingPoints', 'stat': '4'},

{'category': 'fumblesRecovered', 'stat': '0'},

{'category': 'totalFumbles', 'stat': '2'},

{'category': 'tacklesForLoss', 'stat': '1'},

{'category': 'defensiveTDs', 'stat': '0'},

{'category': 'tackles', 'stat': '24'},

{'category': 'sacks', 'stat': '1'},

{'category': 'qbHurries', 'stat': '2'},

{'category': 'passesDeflected', 'stat': '0'},

{'category': 'firstDowns', 'stat': '21'},

{'category': 'thirdDownEff', 'stat': '8-13'},

{'category': 'fourthDownEff', 'stat': '4-5'},

{'category': 'totalYards', 'stat': '368'},

{'category': 'netPassingYards', 'stat': '48'},

{'category': 'completionAttempts', 'stat': '5-8'},

{'category': 'yardsPerPass', 'stat': '6.0'},

{'category': 'rushingYards', 'stat': '320'},

{'category': 'rushingAttempts', 'stat': '56'},

{'category': 'yardsPerRushAttempt', 'stat': '5.7'},

{'category': 'totalPenaltiesYards', 'stat': '1-5'},

{'category': 'turnovers', 'stat': '0'},

{'category': 'fumblesLost', 'stat': '0'},

{'category': 'interceptions', 'stat': '0'},

{'category': 'possessionTime', 'stat': '33:53'}]},

{'conference': 'FBS Independents',

'home_away': 'away',

'points': 27,

'school': 'Notre Dame',

'school_id': 87,

'stats': [{'category': 'fumblesRecovered', 'stat': '0'},

{'category': 'rushingTDs', 'stat': '0'},

{'category': 'passingTDs', 'stat': '3'},

{'category': 'kickReturnYards', 'stat': '61'},

{'category': 'kickReturnTDs', 'stat': '0'},

{'category': 'kickReturns', 'stat': '3'},

{'category': 'kickingPoints', 'stat': '9'},

{'category': 'tacklesForLoss', 'stat': '4'},

{'category': 'defensiveTDs', 'stat': '0'},

{'category': 'tackles', 'stat': '24'},

{'category': 'sacks', 'stat': '0'},

{'category': 'qbHurries', 'stat': '0'},

{'category': 'passesDeflected', 'stat': '1'},

{'category': 'firstDowns', 'stat': '21'},

{'category': 'thirdDownEff', 'stat': '9-13'},

{'category': 'fourthDownEff', 'stat': '1-1'},

{'category': 'totalYards', 'stat': '370'},

{'category': 'netPassingYards', 'stat': '223'},

{'category': 'completionAttempts', 'stat': '19-27'},

{'category': 'yardsPerPass', 'stat': '8.3'},

{'category': 'rushingYards', 'stat': '147'},

{'category': 'rushingAttempts', 'stat': '29'},

{'category': 'yardsPerRushAttempt', 'stat': '5.1'},

{'category': 'totalPenaltiesYards', 'stat': '7-47'},

{'category': 'turnovers', 'stat': '0'},

{'category': 'fumblesLost', 'stat': '0'},

{'category': 'interceptions', 'stat': '0'},

{'category': 'possessionTime', 'stat': '26:07'}]}]}

1 Comment
2024/04/30
00:25 UTC

1

Help Getting Game by Game Data and Statistics

Hello,

I was wondering if anyone has any advice on getting game by game data for college football games. I am pretty unexperienced in web scrapping and api stuff, and so far the only real data I can get easily is just points for each team and quarter points from collegefootballdata.com in the Games and Results section.

What I really want is not really just points, but having statistics like home rush yards, away rush yards, away time of possession, home time of possession, home turnovers, away turnovers, etc.

Does anyone have any idea as to any website I can use that will allow me to get this data? I currently have a key from sportsradar.com for collge football, but am not really sure how to get the data I need from this.

Thanks in advanced for anyone willing to help.

4 Comments
2024/04/29
19:29 UTC

2

Help Pulling CFBD Data

Hi everybody. I'm trying to produce a table in which each row represents a player and contains that player's name, their high school recruiting rating, and their transfer portal recruiting rating. I want the table to be populated with only players that have a non-null value for both the hs rating and the transfer portal rating. I keep running into an error telling me that the key "_name" is not valid when pulling from the recruiting dataset. The code where I create the data-pulling functions is below. I'd really appreciate any feedback!:

def fetch_recruiting_data(year):

return recruiting_api.get_recruiting_players(year=year)

def fetch_transfer_data(years):

transfer_data = []

for year in years:

transfer_data.extend(players_api.get_transfer_portal(year=year))

return transfer_data

Function to create the table

def create_player_table(recruiting_years, transfer_years):

Fetch data

recruiting_data = []

for year in recruiting_years:

recruiting_data.extend(fetch_recruiting_data(year))

transfer_data = fetch_transfer_data(transfer_years)

Convert to DataFrame

recruiting_df = pd.DataFrame(recruiting_data)

transfer_df = pd.DataFrame(transfer_data)

Assuming '_name' is the correct attribute for player names

if not recruiting_df.empty and not transfer_df.empty:

recruiting_df['full_name'] = recruiting_df['_name'].str.strip()

transfer_df['full_name'] = transfer_df['FirstName'].str.strip() + " " + transfer_df['LastName'].str.strip()

Filter data to include only entries with non-empty ratings

recruiting_df = recruiting_df[recruiting_df['_rating'].notna()]

transfer_df = transfer_df[transfer_df['_Rating'].notna()]

Perform an inner join to ensure only players with both ratings are included

merged_df = pd.merge(recruiting_df, transfer_df, on='full_name', suffixes=('_recruit', '_transfer'), how='inner')

Calculate rating difference

merged_df['rating_difference'] = merged_df['_Rating'] - merged_df['_rating']

Select and rename columns

result_df = merged_df[['full_name', '_rating', '_Rating', 'rating_difference']]

result_df.columns = ['Player Name', 'HS Recruiting Rating', 'Transfer Portal Rating', 'Rating Difference']

return result_df

else:

return pd.DataFrame() # Return an empty DataFrame if no data available

2 Comments
2024/04/24
16:40 UTC

2

Need help building an SOS versus both Off & Def

I’m trying to learn how to build my own Strength of Schedule ratings for teams offenses and defenses. Does anyone know a website that would help get me started with this? Most I run across have been using the opponents WL%, but I want to build it for both sides of the ball individually.

Thanks in advance for any help.

5 Comments
2024/04/18
10:13 UTC

2

How to call specific player using get_player_season_stats method in CFBD using python?

I am trying to pull Jayden Daniels college season stats using cfbd's get_player_season_stats method. I am not seeing a parameter that I can specify the player I am wanting to search.

Can I specify the player's season stats I am wanting to pull using get_player_season_stats or do I need to pull them all, then filter by player?

0 Comments
2024/03/31
18:51 UTC

6

CFDB at collegefootballdata.com is missing some game data

Hello everyone. I'm a new user who just started working with the API. I wanted to look up historical data for the pairwise matchups in FBS. For example, when I look up results from Iron Bowl from 1880-2050 (ensuring I get all matchups), via this command:

curl -X GET "https://api.collegefootballdata.com/teams/matchup?team1=Alabama&team2=Auburn&minYear=1880&maxYear=2050" -H "accept: application/json" -H "Authorization: Bearer TguaiqMfP0hHFgVL3dJ2/Nb5vKQmiJW/l2xPsjcyPpVbdP594UQ+3pRtTReXi5iF"

I get the following output:

{

"team1": "Alabama",
"team2": "Auburn",
"startYear": "1880",
"endYear": "2050",
"team1Wins": 49,
"team2Wins": 32,
"ties": 1,
"games": ... }

It's reporting a record of 49-32-1. However, Winsipedia has the record at 50-37-1: https://www.winsipedia.com/alabama/vs/auburn

A quick perusal of the game info from the .json vs the game results from the Wikipedia article on the Iron bowl shows that some games from the 19th century are missing, despite a provided start date of 1880. The FAQ states a start year of 1869, so I'm wondering where the discrepancy might be coming from. Maybe I'm missing something obvious?

Thanks in advance!

2 Comments
2024/03/14
02:37 UTC

2

Looking for 3rd/4th and short run vs pass play call percentage by team

I'm able to do this for NFL data with Stathead, but they don't have this data for cfb. Anywhere I can pull this data for under $20/mo?

1 Comment
2024/03/02
03:14 UTC

4

Any way to scrape data from NCAA website instead of ESPN?

Was looking into making setting up a model based on win probability for next year, but could not find any way to accurately get trustworthy PBP data. I want to include FCS as well and ESPN does not carry PBP for a good portion of those games. There is PBP available from stats.ncaa.org that is reliable and there is a way to use down, distance, score, etc to get win probability so all I need is to be able to scrape data from that website into a workable table. R is preferred, but I'd learn Python if that's all that is out there. Would appreciate if anyone knows anything that could help.

5 Comments
2024/02/23
05:03 UTC

2

Help Formatting Data from API

Posted in here a few days ago, unable to pull data from collegefootballdata.com API to google sheets. Glad to say, I figured that part out and have had some fun playing around with all the new information at my fingertips. When it comes to importing certain datasets, I am running into an issue with the formatting. Spent all day working in conjunction with ChatGpt and have got nowhere.

I have made a dummy sheet to show the differences. The Sheet named "Lines" is what I am currently getting from my code. You can see the issue in column L where the information looks like this:

{spreadOpen=null, provider=William Hill (New Jersey), overUnderOpen=null, homeMoneyline=null, overUnder=54, formattedSpread=Kansas State -12, spread=12, awayMoneyline=null}

instead of:

LineProviderOverUnderSpreadFormattedSpreadOpeningSpreadOpeningOverUnderHomeMoneylineAwayMoneyline
DraftKings59-10Louisiana Tech -10-1059-360285

I have another sheet named "CSV from CFB Data" as an example of what it should look like. Here is a link to the spreadsheet. Here is the code I am currently working with (API Key removed):

// Define functions for each menu item

function getLines() { // Invoke the common function with specific parameters importDataFromAPI("Lines", "https://api.collegefootballdata.com/lines"); } // Common function for making API requests function importDataFromAPI(sheetName, apiUrl) { // Open the spreadsheet by ID var spreadsheetId = "spreadsheet ID"; var spreadsheet = SpreadsheetApp.openById(spreadsheetId);

// Check if the sheet exists, if not, create it var activeSheet = spreadsheet.getSheetByName(sheetName); if (!activeSheet) { activeSheet = spreadsheet.insertSheet(sheetName); }

// Set the API key in the headers var headers = { "Authorization": "Bearer API Key*" };

// Set the request parameters var year = 2023; // Set the desired year var params = { method: "get", headers: headers, muteHttpExceptions: true };

try { // Make a GET request to the API var response = UrlFetchApp.fetch(apiUrl + "?year=" + year, params);

// Log the response content for troubleshooting
console.log("Response Content:", response.getContentText());

// Check if the response is valid JSON
var responseData;
try {
  responseData = JSON.parse(response.getContentText());
} catch (jsonError) {
  console.error("JSON Parse Error:", jsonError);
  return;
}

// Check if the response contains an 'error' property
if (responseData.error) {
  console.error("API Error:", responseData.error);
  return;
}

// Access the data you need from the response
var data = responseData; // Adjust this line based on your API structure

// Clear existing data in the sheet
activeSheet.clear();

// Implement additional logic specific to 'getLines'
// This can include any specific processing you want to do with the 'data' array
// For example, you can log specific fields, manipulate the data, etc.

} catch (error) { console.error("Error:", error); } }

Again, mostly written by ChatGpt. The beginning is probably a little weird, that's just so I can run the script off a button I have added to the UI with a Custom Menu. The script works fine, other than the formatting for "lines". I have looked at this which is linked from CFB Data, but it hasn't helped me:

Responses

Response content type

application/json

successful operation

Example Value

Model

[

{ "id": 0, "season": 0, "week": 0, "seasonType": "string", "startDate": "string", "homeTeam": "string", "homeConference": "string", "homeScore": 0, "awayTeam": "string", "awayConference": "string", "awayScore": 0, "lines": [ { "provider": "string", "spread": 0, "formattedSpread": "string", "spreadOpen": 0, "overUnder": 0, "overUnderOpen": 0, "homeMoneyline": 0, "awayMoneyline": 0 } ] } ]

Any help would be much appreciated!

0 Comments
2024/02/23
03:40 UTC

10

collegefootballdata.com to Google Sheets for a noob

I have no experience writing any real code. I work with spreadsheets for my job so I am familiar and have built something of a CFB model all in Google Sheets. It has all been built on imports and formulas, with a few scripts/macros here and there but nothing very impressive.

I have spent a few hours trying to link CFBdata to my google sheets with the API, but have not had any luck. I will teach myself to code eventually but with a job and a <1 year old baby, just not happening right now.

Anybody able to help with this? Much appreciated in advance for any and all advice.

13 Comments
2024/02/20
22:51 UTC

4

Anywhere to find a games real world start and end times?

Essentially I am trying to find individual games actual duration. Not the total in-game time, but the actual time it took from kickoff to the final whistle. There was a website about a month ago I found that had that information in it's boxscore IU believe, but I didn't bookmark it at the time and have been racking my brain trying to find it again

2 Comments
2024/01/18
22:31 UTC

2

Filter by player name?

How can I search cfbd data by player name? Alternatively, how can I generate a list of all player_ids and the associated names from year 2010+

0 Comments
2024/01/14
02:29 UTC

5

Analyzing the effects of experience against the option

Hey y'all,

As a Notre Dame fan, dealing with the option offense is a pretty big concern due to our yearly game against Navy plus occasional games against Army and Air Force. In discussions of these matchups by fans and analysts, you often find the claim that defensive experience against the option is an important factor: the more experience a defense has against the option, the better we can expect them to perform.

I'm working on a project that tests this claim, and I'd really appreciate some feedback! The project notebook can be found on my Github. I'm planning to include it in a data science portfolio, so it's written for a more general audience and contains a lot of code.

I looked at play-by-play data from collegefootballdata.com and found confirming evidence that prior experience does actually improve a defense's performance against the option. The results suggest that inexperienced defenses can expect to give up over a touchdown more per game against option offenses than their highly experienced counterparts.

Thanks!

1 Comment
2024/01/12
16:48 UTC

9

I ranked the 2023 FBS Kickers by an Added Value Statistic

3 Comments
2024/01/12
15:59 UTC

2

The last piece of the puzzle.

Hello everyone!

If you saw my last post, I ended up going with sports-reference.com to supply the data for my app. Now that I have the data, I am looking to use it to make hypothetical scores between past teams, think 2001 Miami against 2019 Alabama.

With sports-reference I was able to pull Total yards, both passing and rushing for both offense and defense (yards allowed). I also got Points per game and points allowed per game.

Now the final piece of the puzzle would be somehow adding the strength of schedule into the equation. Within in the data I have, I have a SRS and SOS score for each of the teams.

The way I am doing my current hypothetical games:

Team A Passing yards= (Team A Average Passing Yards+ Team B Average Passing Yards Allowed/2)
Team A Rushing yards= (Team A Average Rushing Yards+ Team B Average Rushing Yards Allowed/2)
And vice versa.
The for the scores, I could do:
Team A Score: ((Team A Points Per Game+ Team B Opp Pts/G)/2)
Team B Score: ((Team B Points Per Game+ Team A Opp Pts/G)/2)

With data with Georgia 2022 and Florida 2022 it would look like:

So with this we could say that Georgia would win 35- 22
Georgia would have:
Passing: 265.85
Rushing: 190
Total Yards: 455.95
Florida would have:
Passing: 221.75
Rushing: 138.65
Total Yards: 360.3
Which compares to their real life match up as:
Georgia wins 42 to 20.
Georgia had:
Passing: 316
Rushing: 239
Total Yards: 555
Florida had:
Passing: 271
Rushing: 100
Total Yards: 371

So close, but I think figuring in SOS or SRS somehow could make this model better.

1 Comment
2023/12/10
23:22 UTC

2

Reliable play by play data?

Play by play data from ESPN and downstream to our beloved collegefootballdata.com is often wrong. Not just wrong for a mid-season MAC game, but wrong for a huge game like UM vs anOSU. See the last few plays in https://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay/_/gameId/401520434

Is there a site (hopefully free) that provides reliable play by play data?

Is there a way to make ESPN aware of their bad data?

1 Comment
2023/12/08
01:48 UTC

2

In a world where computers are actually respected in CFB....

Here is what I believe the right way to do the playoffs is. First of all, all computer should always "rank" teams based on strength of record, if you're trying to do so descriptively. Once you have your power rating, it's a fairly trivial thing to calculate. For those who don't know, all you do is pick some arbitrary strength rating, simulate such a team's performance against a team's schedule, and then add up the odds that they get AT LEAST as many wins vs that schedule. Lowest odds is ranked highest. What that does is utilize legitimate predictive computer systems to more accurately describe how good a team actually is (and therefore how hard a given schedule is). Then you can calculate how hard is was to win the games they did. It's the best of both worlds.

So the NCAA should select maybe 3 or 4 computers that have a long demonstrated history of success in accurate prediction. They could even open up a multi-year submission process. They purchase the rights to use these formulas, and as a result, the formulas are made completely public. This way, the proprietors get their money and the fans get transparency. We need to be transparent. Using multiple computers will minimize allegations of being able to "gain the system".

From there, you average the computer rankings and seed accordingly. So easy. So painless. Everybody wins. Conspiracy loses. Games matter. Tough schedules matter. Winning matters. How hard your schedule was is accurately reflected (unlike in the Colley matrix which is just too simplistic to accurately capture the complexities of a 12 game college football season). Everything matters.

I know it's a pipe dream, but I just have to believe that in 2023, there's a better way to do this. As educated statisticians and fans of college football, what are your thoughts on such a system?

11 Comments
2023/12/06
05:04 UTC

1

A big ass file

Hello!

I am attempting to make an app that compares CFB teams against eachother throughout the years. I have been trying to find a file or collection of files that would have stats and metrics of every team, across a time span of 10 to 30 years. I have been able to find files with stats for one team, in one year, but I haven't been able to find anything with all the teams, in all the years. I thought this might be the place to ask before I start doing needless, repetitive downloading and assembly.

I might be missing a download somewhere, but I couldn't find one for everything across multiple years. Any help would be appreciated, thank you!

1 Comment
2023/12/05
18:35 UTC

4

2023 CFB RP Points Standings (Week 13)

WELCOME TO THE WEEK 13 RESULTS OF THE 2023 CFB RP POINTS STANDINGS!

My mathematical formula ranks teams based on how many points they earn over the course of the season (similar to the NHL and MLS), and the value of each win or loss is based on the Massey Composite Rating. These rankings will be posted weekly here on r/CFBAnalysis.

Click the links below to see past rankings and how the formula works.

Preseason Rankings/Formula

Week 1 Rankings

Week 2 Rankings

Week 3 Rankings

Week 4 Rankings

Week 5 Rankings

Week 6 Rankings

Week 7 Rankings

Week 8 Rankings

Week 9 Rankings

Week 10 Rankings

Week 11 Rankings

Week 12 Rankings

WEEK 14 MATCHUPS

RANKED MATCHUPS

  • #1 Michigan vs #17 Iowa
  • #2 Washington vs #7 Oregon
  • #3 Georgia vs #8 Alabama
  • #4 Florida State vs #15 Louisville
  • #20 Tulane vs #24 SMU

KEY MATCHUPS

  • #5 Texas vs Oklahoma State
  • #19 Toledo vs Miami (OH)
  • #11 Liberty vs New Mexico State
  • #21 Troy vs Appalachian State
  • UNLV vs Boise State

WEEK 13 RANKINGS

My flair will tell you that I am in pain, but this isn't about me, this is about the points standings. The 4 team playoff is still up for grabs and 7 teams are eligible (compared to the 8 teams eligible in the committee rankings).

This is where the formula falls short, as Ohio State is mathematically eliminated from the playoff regardless of championship week results, and the formula cannot possibly account for a Florida State team without their starting quarterback. This year has made me realize that I might need a new metric to base TeamValue off of, as I don't think this iteration of the formula is accurately valuing the quality of each teams resume, especially when it comes to game control and value points.

EXAMPLES:

  • Washington's resume is propped up on early season blowout wins despite looking shaky for the past month.
  • Michigan's most valuable win is at Penn State rather than their win over Ohio State, simply because it was away from home. Are away wins being valued too much, or is their not enough separation in TeamValue to truly value the gap between teams.
  • Oklahoma State's resume is massively punished by the South Alabama loss, but they aren't getting enough credit for their wins over Kansas and Oklahoma. Their West Virginia win is actually the most valuable win on their resume, that is not right.
RANKTEAMRECORDCONFPOINTSTEAMVSOS
1Michigan12-09-0272.79713.25497.659
2Washington12-09-0264.76412.795108.831
3Georgia12-08-0264.32913.05894.958
4Florida State12-08-0251.05812.69491.553
5Texas11-18-1248.02712.844111.004
6Ohio State11-18-1245.22312.97590.548
7Oregon11-18-1245.03112.86298.264
8Alabama11-18-0234.78212.687106.453
9Oklahoma10-27-2217.04512.37296.273
10Penn State10-27-2216.78412.62988.755
11Liberty12-08-0212.42510.81946.877
12James Madison11-17-1205.62111.17760.744
13Missouri10-26-2201.30412.09590.809
14Ole Miss10-26-2198.53011.96389.167
15Louisville10-27-1191.93811.58497.648
16LSU9-36-2186.50812.10896.300
17Iowa10-27-2184.54211.11697.280
18Notre Dame9-3-----183.90111.90883.893
19Toledo11-18-0182.7009.61751.575
20Tulane11-18-0182.68910.27162.079
21Troy10-27-1175.43710.45367.877
22Arizona9-37-2172.01511.50382.413
23Kansas State8-46-3167.94111.61099.531
24SMU10-28-0165.15910.36155.669
25NC State9-36-2163.80010.80186.899
26Oklahoma State9-37-2157.16910.522100.392
27Oregon State8-45-4155.99311.31392.880
28Miami (OH)10-27-1152.3738.19252.397
29Clemson8-44-4149.09210.97193.321
30Kansas8-45-4144.56510.69091.076
31Utah8-45-4142.60710.88796.920
32Tennessee8-44-4139.24710.76887.679
33Memphis9-36-2139.2168.73158.385
34North Carolina8-44-4137.5039.89185.812
35New Mexico State10-37-1136.8077.27052.626
36UNLV9-36-2136.1408.75863.751
37West Virginia8-46-3129.2389.64281.797
38Miami7-53-5121.7629.80192.460
39Iowa State7-56-3120.46210.28196.682
40Texas A&M7-54-4120.39510.24287.653
41USC7-55-4119.38710.15299.735
42Duke7-54-4117.2639.67890.085
43Ohio9-36-2114.9586.57339.286
44Appalachian State8-46-2113.2768.29468.636
45Wyoming8-45-3112.2597.93169.527
46Air Force8-45-3111.9647.48254.682
47UCLA7-54-5106.9709.00882.462
48Kentucky7-53-5105.7889.35385.935
49Maryland7-54-5105.1929.36481.328
50UTSA8-47-1103.1717.43551.936
51Fresno State8-44-4100.1746.66553.709
52Wisconsin7-55-499.5288.62981.399
53Boise State7-56-298.5728.46981.361
54Jacksonville State8-46-297.0246.42646.798
55San Jose State7-56-297.0168.06974.448
56Northwestern7-55-495.8317.95185.381
57Texas Tech6-65-485.4238.59195.632
58Auburn6-63-584.5248.73090.594
59Georgia Tech6-65-382.7877.90993.678
60Coastal Carolina7-55-382.1246.50167.123
61UCF6-63-680.8508.24783.403
62Cal6-64-580.8288.42194.207
63Rutgers6-63-680.3777.84593.332
64Virginia Tech6-65-380.0917.88783.004
65Bowling Green7-55-379.8515.99662.355
66Western Kentucky7-55-375.3825.80458.078
67TCU5-73-664.8637.95895.004
68Texas State7-54-464.5144.93250.082
69South Alabama6-64-462.9196.42565.294
70Washington State5-72-759.4317.28291.249
71Florida5-73-558.1737.60596.668
72Syracuse6-62-657.8746.19675.478
73Boston College6-63-557.2495.37073.467
74South Carolina5-73-556.9907.44898.642
75Arkansas State6-64-448.6474.31462.133
76Old Dominion6-65-348.2364.82769.209
77Marshall6-63-548.0254.98270.843
78Georgia Southern6-63-547.4384.31758.921
79Georgia State6-63-545.9374.74868.989
80Nebraska5-73-645.0766.30883.868
81Utah State6-64-444.9164.58763.129
82Northern Illinois6-65-343.9363.60038.836
83Illinois5-73-643.0106.36694.744
84BYU5-72-742.9305.99793.033
85Mississippi State5-71-742.2636.08793.276
86Minnesota5-73-641.9656.36593.700
87Rice6-64-441.2844.51456.569
88Louisiana6-63-540.0254.21947.605
89Army5-6-----28.2634.09760.500
90Colorado4-81-822.5925.45698.536
91Purdue4-83-619.9815.77097.611
92Arkansas4-81-717.3035.35288.351
93USF6-64-415.9503.31849.431
94Navy5-64-414.8493.11653.890
95Eastern Michigan6-64-411.7662.13935.427
96Michigan State4-82-711.3995.08298.718
97Wake Forest4-81-710.2924.58789.105
98Colorado State5-73-59.6133.14058.573
99North Texas5-73-58.4293.05654.473
100Houston4-82-77.5964.39489.602
101Central Michigan5-73-5-2.7152.16851.218
102Virginia3-92-6-3.2104.260104.230
103Stanford3-92-7-5.4793.774103.147
104Middle Tennessee4-83-5-9.3422.63062.429
105Arizona State3-92-7-9.8004.349105.551
106Hawaii5-83-5-9.8592.44967.092
107Indiana3-91-8-11.0213.89993.781
108Pitt3-92-6-11.6354.08892.977
109San Diego State4-82-6-12.1172.82568.458
110Western Michigan4-83-5-13.3292.21363.858
111FAU4-83-5-16.2762.40855.716
112New Mexico4-82-6-16.8642.13166.405
113Cincinnati3-91-8-17.2783.54287.881
114Ball State4-83-5-17.4582.17460.768
115Tulsa4-82-6-18.2881.87762.235
116UAB4-83-5-19.8452.07960.476
117Baylor3-92-7-22.3153.45792.927
118Buffalo3-93-5-35.4451.20558.750
119Southern Miss3-92-6-38.9281.67873.094
120UMass3-9------41.1501.26171.289
121UConn3-9------42.4061.35166.944
122Vanderbilt2-100-8-44.0392.14596.816
123FIU4-81-7-44.5060.72146.174
124UTEP3-92-6-45.3531.31064.037
125LA Tech3-92-6-49.8400.91655.945
126Sam Houston3-92-6-50.6911.24053.768
127Charlotte3-92-6-57.3470.76057.593
128East Carolina2-101-7-62.1781.55267.270
129Temple3-91-7-62.2510.54757.902
130Nevada2-102-6-69.7350.70464.261
131UL Monroe2-100-8-75.4870.57870.935
132Akron2-101-7-92.9300.28343.787
133Kent State1-110-8-125.7580.11650.426

0 Comments
2023/11/28
15:32 UTC

17

Despite a record number of P5 teams with 1 or fewer losses, there are only 3 championship-caliber teams this year

Tl;Dr at the bottom

This year there are 8 P5 teams with 1 or 0 losses heading into championship week. The previous record for this point in the season in the CFP era is 7. Despite that, there are only 3 teams that are good enough to win a championship.

I built a model that identifies "championship caliber" teams. The model reports how closely a team's offensive an defensive efficiencies match that of a championship-winning team. I cannot stress enough that this model is DESCRIPTIVE, not predictive, so it cannot with any certainty say how likely a team is to win the championship, nor is it designed to predict which team is most likely to win the championship. The model has a binary output; either a team is championship-caliber, or they aren't.

HOW TO INTERPRET THESE RESULTS: As stated above, the categorization of teams should be considered binary (either championship-caliber or not). Given the tuning of this model, the success threshold is 93%. So any teams with a match % above 93% should be considered championship caliber. This year, that means Michigan, Georgia, and Oregon. That being said, there's still 1 more week for the numbers to change, but they aren't likely to change significantly.

TeamMatch%
Michigan98%
Georgia97%
Oregon95%
Ohio State88%
Penn State83%
Florida State70%
Texas67%
Alabama62%
LSU35%
Notre Dame29%
Washington25%
Oklahoma24%
Missouri20%
Kansas State16%
Texas A&M13%
Ole Miss8%
Liberty7%
Oregon State4%
Arizona4%
Tennessee3%

HOW THE MODEL WAS BUILT: The model uses data starting with 1998, the year the BCS was instituted, and therefore, an official championship game. I also tested the model with data going back to 1970, but got worse results as champions before 1998 were determined purely subjectively. This is a logistic model, with hyperparameters tuned such that the most important factor was correctly identifying teams that win championships as championship caliber (true positive). The secondary goal is to minimize the number of total identified teams while maintaining the first goal (so minimize false positives). I believe this model accomplishes this quite well. When back testing, the model correctly categorizes 25 of 26 championship teams (yes, there was a split champ 1 year before the PAC-12 integrated into the BCS.) The lone outlier was 1998 Tennessee. The model identifies 3.2% of all teams as championship-caliber, which with 133 teams would translate to 4.2 teams per season. Although the number of identified teams seems to be trending down in the CFP era. I believe the existence of the 4-team playoff somewhat validates this model, and vice versa. I think it's reasonable to say that there are about 4 teams in a given year that really are good enough to win a championship, even though, no matter how many good teams there are, there can only be one champion.

Now I know what you're saying "well we already have 4 teams in the playoff, aren't those just the four teams who are good enough to win?". NO, of course that's not the case. The CFP has always been about finding the right blend between best and most deserving teams so that everyone can feel like they had a fair shot at the championship. In reality, this model would not have identified 14 out of the 36 playoff teams as "championship-caliber", a classification I would call "Imposters". And hey, while we're at it, I'll tell you that by far the #1 imposter according to my model (and it wasn't even close) was the 2015 Michigan State team that got embarrassed by Alabama in the semifinal.

For a more in-depth explanation of the model, I will be posting a full description this offseason, along with my answer to the question "Does defense win championships?".

Tl;Dr: The model considers opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency and determines how closely a team's efficiency profile matches an average champ-winning team. 93% Match is considered championship caliber (the output is binary, so they either are or they aren't). Don't use it to rank teams.

4 Comments
2023/11/28
04:08 UTC

1

2023 CFB RP Points Standings (Week 12)

WELCOME TO THE WEEK 12 RESULTS OF THE 2023 CFB RP POINTS STANDINGS!

My mathematical formula ranks teams based on how many points they earn over the course of the season (similar to the NHL and MLS), and the value of each win or loss is based on the Massey Composite Rating. These rankings will be posted weekly here on r/CFBAnalysis.

Click the links below to see past rankings and how the formula works.

Preseason Rankings/Formula

Week 1 Rankings

Week 2 Rankings

Week 3 Rankings

Week 4 Rankings

Week 5 Rankings

Week 6 Rankings

Week 7 Rankings

Week 8 Rankings

Week 9 Rankings

Week 10 Rankings

Week 11 Rankings

WEEK 13 MATCHUPS

RANKED MATCHUPS

  • #1 Michigan vs #3 Ohio State
  • #7 Oregon vs #23 Oregon State

KEY MATCHUPS

  • #2 Washington @ Washington State
  • #5 Florida State @ Florida
  • #9 Louisville vs Kentucky
  • #13 James Madison @ Coastal Carolina
  • #18 Iowa @ Nebraska
  • #19 LSU vs Texas A&M
  • #20 Tulane vs UTSA

WEEK 12 RANKINGS

Rivalry Week is here, and we continue to have the same 9 teams eligible for the 4 team playoff. One is likely to be eliminated in The Game up in Ann Arbor this weekend and odds are we dont see chalk across the rest of the board. Chaos could be coming as the conference championships loom.

Georgia continues their climb, finally reaching the top 4 for the first time since Week 7, and it is likely they will be in the top 2 with a win this weekend. That's how close everything is at the top! The winner between Ohio State and Michigan will have one foot in the playoff, and the inside track to the #1 seed in the points standings.

RANKTEAMRECORDCONFPOINTSTEAMVSOS
1Michigan11-08-0248.80513.10987.913
2Washington11-08-0245.17512.82094.721
3Ohio State11-08-0245.04913.12590.127
4Georgia11-08-0241.82813.07894.581
5Florida State11-08-0234.09312.68490.075
6Texas10-17-1222.54912.643100.409
7Oregon10-17-1219.05412.79585.216
8Alabama10-17-0212.52712.716106.123
9Louisville10-17-1197.45811.96295.900
10Liberty11-07-0196.61210.94746.893
11Penn State9-26-2194.34312.62889.828
12Oklahoma9-26-2193.84912.26495.612
13James Madison10-16-1180.36810.75561.066
14Ole Miss9-25-2178.33411.90390.204
15Missouri9-25-2177.77511.85091.233
16Kansas State8-36-2173.58111.98299.071
17Toledo10-17-0165.6599.60351.793
18Iowa9-26-2164.79811.06683.625
19LSU8-35-2163.93412.00197.516
20Tulane10-17-0162.21110.00052.234
21Notre Dame8-3-----161.99111.80083.775
22Troy9-26-1159.06010.58060.659
23Oregon State8-35-3157.31411.59191.384
24Arizona8-36-2151.22411.43784.323
25UNLV9-26-1145.6939.53855.815
26SMU9-27-0145.29310.07245.214
27North Carolina8-34-3142.30910.41584.809
28Oklahoma State8-36-2139.97710.51888.288
29Miami (OH)9-26-1138.5148.34653.174
30NC State8-35-2137.16610.14785.179
31Utah7-44-4125.73610.86997.643
32Clemson7-44-4125.38210.70092.625
33Texas A&M7-44-3124.11410.68488.522
34Tennessee7-43-4123.35010.67187.858
35Kansas7-44-4122.92610.46891.417
36Memphis8-35-2122.2488.50857.873
37New Mexico State9-36-1120.8767.00153.403
38USC7-55-4119.00710.10199.405
39UCLA7-44-4118.71610.09582.041
40Air Force8-35-2116.1297.91152.772
41West Virginia7-45-3114.0859.65182.865
42Fresno State8-34-3112.1587.80051.965
43UTSA8-37-0106.9917.88950.659
44Jacksonville State8-36-1103.9006.94247.438
45Miami6-52-5100.3889.36994.122
46Duke6-53-499.5549.57789.351
47Ohio8-35-299.2506.55338.453
48Wyoming7-44-395.4237.56471.583
49Iowa State6-55-394.5599.57397.266
50Appalachian State7-45-293.8537.78558.724
51Coastal Carolina7-45-292.2907.25767.593
52Texas Tech6-55-390.6889.15095.444
53Rutgers6-53-587.9118.51591.413
54Auburn6-53-486.5818.87490.662
55Georgia Tech6-55-385.4568.02693.677
56Maryland6-53-582.3738.80783.315
57Kentucky6-53-579.7238.42386.464
58Wisconsin6-54-479.1668.13483.029
59Boise State6-55-277.7757.99571.858
60Northwestern6-54-475.7187.39685.097
61San Jose State6-55-273.8007.26575.179
62South Alabama6-54-371.9597.27264.172
63TCU5-63-568.7888.40595.148
64Boston College6-53-465.7845.82372.091
65UCF5-62-663.8227.79584.139
66South Carolina5-63-563.3787.85198.681
67Bowling Green6-54-362.2485.42763.408
68Florida5-63-561.8747.64796.348
69Arkansas State6-54-360.7395.13462.685
70Western Kentucky6-54-360.2045.51858.448
71Washington State5-62-659.8837.29791.814
72Virginia Tech5-64-355.6927.03481.856
73Georgia Southern6-53-455.3034.80757.182
74Cal5-63-554.2247.37895.355
75Georgia State6-53-453.2435.06967.386
76Minnesota5-63-549.7896.81992.472
77Illinois5-63-549.1036.65993.195
78Texas State6-53-448.8654.37853.623
79Mississippi State5-61-647.9056.18193.942
80Nebraska5-63-547.6516.37082.678
81BYU5-62-646.4296.05393.199
82Syracuse5-61-641.1655.64775.330
83Old Dominion5-64-330.9414.28967.878
84Army5-6-----30.3844.18863.405
85Marshall5-62-530.3054.15171.434
86Northern Illinois5-64-329.4863.47638.935
87Utah State5-63-429.1444.22762.470
88Colorado4-71-728.0845.670100.855
89Rice5-63-427.1784.14655.745
90Louisiana5-62-527.0103.83450.130
91Arkansas4-71-626.1395.72088.845
92Navy5-54-322.8363.55453.634
93Colorado State5-63-420.8303.51158.368
94Michigan State4-72-619.9575.46199.678
95Houston4-72-615.7914.66290.412
96Wake Forest4-71-615.4864.54286.070
97Virginia3-82-58.5624.812102.584
98Central Michigan5-63-46.2442.29152.547
99Purdue3-82-63.5345.20897.289
100Middle Tennessee4-73-43.3633.26162.393
101Stanford3-82-72.4323.701102.939
102Arizona State3-82-60.2364.682106.781
103USF5-63-4-0.6782.68449.771
104Western Michigan4-73-4-1.7202.63562.391
105Indiana3-81-7-1.9064.13093.917
106Eastern Michigan5-63-4-2.0201.69537.863
107New Mexico4-72-5-5.2952.40166.831
108North Texas4-72-5-5.7672.53053.436
109Pitt3-82-5-6.2194.07693.022
110FAU4-73-4-7.4302.56855.462
111Cincinnati3-81-7-8.4723.88686.833
112UAB4-73-4-9.4352.42259.975
113Ball State4-73-4-11.5992.10859.914
114Baylor3-82-6-16.9153.42792.995
115Buffalo3-83-4-21.0211.63657.273
116UMass3-8------23.8331.90971.634
117Hawaii4-82-5-24.2281.95566.727
118Southern Miss3-82-5-31.4531.69772.971
119San Diego State3-81-6-31.5202.05769.795
120FIU4-71-6-33.0400.80145.843
121Tulsa3-81-6-33.5951.41461.395
122UTEP3-82-5-38.5091.31564.633
123Vanderbilt2-90-7-39.1222.09196.332
124Charlotte3-82-5-42.7121.10956.354
125East Carolina2-91-6-49.5871.88665.797
126LA Tech3-92-6-50.1510.87355.676
127Temple3-81-6-53.1620.52457.265
128Nevada2-92-5-57.1450.89364.000
129UConn2-9------60.0510.81865.809
130UL Monroe2-90-7-60.5090.83472.261
131Sam Houston2-91-6-62.8350.91955.284
132Akron2-91-6-83.3340.30942.635
133Kent State1-100-7-111.4870.13550.865

0 Comments
2023/11/21
15:12 UTC

4

Newbie question: How would you evaluate DC candidates?

USC fan here still reeling from the trauma of having an all-time great college QB and all-time horror show college defense on the same team. As SC embarks on what I hope will be a program saving DC hire, I was curious what's the analytics™ approach to evaluating candidates for coordinator roles?

It feels like it's always just a who's hot pick based off of one or two recent good years. Team defense rankings are always just based on counting stats and I rarely see any SOS-adjusted rankings or ELO ratings or whatever. I admit my advanced stat knowledge is fairly limited when it comes to football so maybe I just don't know where to look. But I saw this chart that did a decent job demonstrating the quality of a team a new coach inherits and it made me think about DCs. I'd want to know which DC overperformed given his 'Inherited Team Talent Composite' on defense and adjusted for strength of offense schedule. Is that data out there? Or are there other ways to better quantify DC performance?

Thanks in advance for helpful answers!

1 Comment
2023/11/20
19:02 UTC

2

Individual Opponent adjusted metrics?

Looking for things like Success Rate+, Explosiveness+, etc. I know things like SP+ adjust for strength of opponent, but I'm looking for more of the building blocks (eg; Opponent adjusted Success Rate, Opponent Adjusted Explosiveness, etc)

4 Comments
2023/11/20
15:31 UTC

2

Snap counts by player

Is there a source for snap counts by player?

1 Comment
2023/11/15
09:13 UTC

2

2023 CFB RP Points Standings (Week 11)

WELCOME TO THE WEEK 11 RESULTS OF THE 2023 CFB RP POINTS STANDINGS!

My mathematical formula ranks teams based on how many points they earn over the course of the season (similar to the NHL and MLS), and the value of each win or loss is based on the Massey Composite Rating. These rankings will be posted weekly here on r/CFBAnalysis.

Click the links below to see past rankings and how the formula works.

Preseason Rankings/Formula

Week 1 Rankings

Week 2 Rankings

Week 3 Rankings

Week 4 Rankings

Week 5 Rankings

Week 6 Rankings

Week 7 Rankings

Week 8 Rankings

Week 9 Rankings

Week 10 Rankings

WEEK 12 MATCHUPS

RANKED MATCHUPS

  • #4 Washington @ Oregon State

KEY MATCHUPS

  • #5 Georgia @ Tennessee
  • #8 Texas @ Iowa State
  • #11 Louisville @ Miami
  • #18 Kansas State @ Kansas
  • #20 North Carolina @ Clemson
  • #25 Utah @ Arizona

WEEK 11 RANKINGS

The 11 teams eligible for the 4-team playoff is down to 9, as Ole Miss and Penn State both suffered their 2nd losses of the season at the hands of top 5 teams. Again, I suspect the top 8 in the committees rankings will feature the same 8 teams seen here, however in a different order.

Georgia is once again looking like the best team in the country, however they still remain in 5th place in the standings for the third week straight. That is a deceiving statistic though, as for the fourth straight week, they have reduced the gap between themselves and the top 4.

After Week 8, Georgia sat in 9th place following their BYE, and 14.183 points adrift from the top 4. Since then that deficit has reduced to 9.752, 8.865, and 5.387 points in respective weeks. A win this week would at minimum put them above Florida State, and potentially above Ohio State. Regardless, this will likely be the Bulldogs last week outside the top 4 for quite some time.

RANKTEAMRECORDCONFPOINTSTEAMVSOS
1Michigan10-07-0228.18413.21190.189
2Ohio State10-07-0222.88413.15991.457
3Florida State10-08-0221.44612.84881.626
4Washington10-07-0220.43112.80193.598
5Georgia10-07-0215.04412.96382.828
6Oregon9-16-1197.60212.78686.954
7Alabama9-17-0197.10712.76594.576
8Texas9-16-1196.73912.63199.055
9James Madison10-06-0188.39311.34161.773
10Liberty10-07-0176.73210.69335.576
11Louisville9-16-1174.99411.85685.186
12Oklahoma8-25-2172.74412.25893.860
13Penn State8-25-2171.79412.57489.691
14Ole Miss8-25-2162.70311.95789.882
15Missouri8-24-2159.44211.95891.651
16Oregon State8-25-2158.13311.71690.558
17Iowa8-25-2149.52411.11086.929
18Kansas State7-35-2149.31311.85299.673
19Toledo9-16-0146.3589.43142.693
20North Carolina8-24-2145.75910.85683.464
21Tulane9-16-0143.7339.73851.316
22LSU7-35-2143.20011.91598.451
23Troy8-25-1142.15410.57059.791
24Notre Dame7-3-----141.55911.71784.953
25Utah7-34-3131.20811.42099.068
26USC7-45-3128.47810.916100.021
27Tennessee7-33-3128.31711.04787.247
28Kansas7-34-3126.67010.59891.918
29Arizona7-35-2126.01810.76085.362
30Fresno State8-24-2125.8889.05150.323
31Memphis8-25-1125.1688.72854.635
32Miami (OH)8-25-1124.4218.10143.669
33UNLV8-25-1122.8578.86655.454
34SMU8-26-0122.2899.49044.809
35Air Force8-25-1120.8988.23849.455
36Oklahoma State7-35-2120.22710.24088.270
37NC State7-34-2117.0769.86287.439
38Texas A&M6-44-3108.77710.65588.013
39Duke6-43-3107.61610.36587.958
40Clemson6-43-4103.74210.29094.636
41Miami6-42-4102.7759.68693.374
42Coastal Carolina7-35-2101.7068.04366.662
43Iowa State6-45-298.4939.73897.061
44Auburn6-43-496.8139.80687.971
45West Virginia6-44-394.8589.25182.826
46UCLA6-43-493.8229.35084.138
47New Mexico State8-36-192.3415.36540.413
48Rutgers6-43-491.8158.83592.081
49UTSA7-36-089.9407.43751.525
50Jacksonville State7-35-185.4356.08644.648
51Maryland6-43-485.2048.85584.071
52Kentucky6-43-485.0969.08585.993
53Ohio7-34-284.6106.16339.122
54Wyoming6-43-374.1026.67668.990
55Appalachian State6-44-271.4436.78862.077
56Texas Tech5-54-370.7458.80394.741
57Georgia Southern6-43-369.7345.75058.703
58Georgia Tech5-54-367.5437.54095.136
59UCF5-52-567.0968.20283.427
60Texas State6-43-366.9665.54253.858
61Boston College6-43-365.8946.61570.944
62Bowling Green6-44-265.8315.42362.224
63Virginia Tech5-54-265.2157.82684.158
64Florida5-53-464.2827.88798.015
65Wisconsin5-53-462.7327.97785.978
66Georgia State6-43-462.0225.62469.222
67Northwestern5-53-460.6987.06688.453
68San Jose State5-54-260.1377.14875.729
69Minnesota5-53-456.3177.32893.846
70Nebraska5-53-455.5387.06584.238
71Boise State5-54-254.4886.95672.410
72Illinois5-53-453.9766.99895.821
73South Alabama5-53-351.6476.37765.432
74Syracuse5-51-550.8006.41477.470
75TCU4-62-549.9577.91995.568
76BYU5-52-549.0245.81392.177
77Western Kentucky5-53-344.8445.16355.541
78South Carolina4-62-543.9497.41398.946
79Utah State5-53-343.6934.98062.195
80Marshall5-52-443.0065.05771.603
81Arkansas State5-53-339.8483.93464.668
82Colorado4-61-639.7926.717100.533
83Cal4-62-536.6836.99296.289
84Washington State4-61-636.3616.11991.581
85Mississippi State4-61-633.4385.84895.299
86Louisiana5-52-430.1233.86949.664
87Wake Forest4-61-621.7984.97686.582
88Houston4-62-520.9704.86389.160
89Old Dominion4-63-315.9123.77271.943
90Purdue3-72-515.1606.145101.917
91Northern Illinois4-63-313.7892.87040.307
92Central Michigan5-53-312.8692.47149.904
93Arkansas3-71-612.4115.68689.502
94Stanford3-72-612.1304.283102.070
95Army4-6-----11.6523.41764.581
96Western Michigan4-63-310.6303.28160.988
97Rice4-62-410.2333.62056.386
98Navy4-53-38.9693.10053.337
99Arizona State3-72-58.6664.991107.153
100Indiana3-71-68.5674.71294.827
101USF5-53-37.9723.14548.696
102Colorado State4-62-45.4093.20856.787
103Michigan State3-71-64.8534.941102.121
104FAU4-63-30.2672.96054.957
105Cincinnati3-71-6-1.4514.32786.892
106Baylor3-72-5-5.2624.15194.549
107Virginia2-81-5-10.3264.102105.847
108Middle Tennessee3-72-4-12.7352.80258.958
109Eastern Michigan4-62-4-13.7361.44936.824
110Buffalo3-73-3-14.9601.69155.981
111Hawaii4-72-4-15.6942.19563.277
112Tulsa3-71-5-20.8721.71960.183
113Pitt2-81-5-21.2673.67797.049
114UAB3-72-4-21.6152.15560.442
115North Texas3-71-5-22.4222.10151.800
116UMass3-7------23.5321.55366.676
117Southern Miss3-72-5-23.8911.97769.979
118San Diego State3-71-5-24.4202.18170.061
119Ball State3-72-4-24.9541.70860.952
120FIU4-61-6-26.4520.77241.554
121Charlotte3-72-4-27.2781.40857.414
122New Mexico3-71-5-31.6331.19764.501
123UTEP3-72-4-32.2741.20159.321
124Vanderbilt2-90-7-37.5112.27398.152
125East Carolina2-81-5-38.7862.28664.528
126Temple3-71-5-40.7680.65156.672
127LA Tech3-82-5-42.0861.02051.465
128Nevada2-82-4-42.6931.05665.410
129Sam Houston2-81-5-56.7430.72752.016
130UL Monroe2-80-7-56.8110.69570.835
131UConn1-9------70.7380.70968.925
132Akron2-81-5-71.0380.27742.743
133Kent State1-90-6-95.5500.12850.621

0 Comments
2023/11/14
15:02 UTC

2

3rd and 1 Conversion Rates

Where would be the best to find this per CFB Team for the 2023 Season?

Thanks in advance,

4 Comments
2023/11/12
02:47 UTC

3

2023 CFB RP Points Standings (Week 10)

WELCOME TO THE WEEK 10 RESULTS OF THE 2023 CFB RP POINTS STANDINGS!

My mathematical formula ranks teams based on how many points they earn over the course of the season (similar to the NHL and MLS), and the value of each win or loss is based on the Massey Composite Rating. These rankings will be posted weekly here on r/CFBAnalysis.

Click the links below to see past rankings and how the formula works.

Preseason Rankings/Formula

Week 1 Rankings

Week 2 Rankings

Week 3 Rankings

Week 4 Rankings

Week 5 Rankings

Week 6 Rankings

Week 7 Rankings

Week 8 Rankings

Week 9 Rankings

WEEK 11 MATCHUPS

RANKED MATCHUPS

  • #2 Michigan @ #7 Penn State
  • #4 Washington vs #23 Utah
  • #5 Georgia vs #11 Ole Miss
  • #17 Tennessee @ #22 Missouri

KEY MATCHUPS

  • #9 Oregon vs USC
  • #3 Florida State vs Miami
  • Rutgers @ Iowa
  • Duke @ North Carolina
  • Florida @ LSU

WEEK 10 RANKINGS

There are now 11 teams in the running for the 4-team college football playoff, and all 11 sit inside the top 12 of the points standings this week. JMU is the only outlier of the group and their forecasted slide down the standings has already begun.

Georgia is the only undefeated team that the formula has a slightly different opinion about than the committee, and only becuase they are currently in the most difficult part of their schedule and haven't earned those points yet.

The 1 loss teams are also ordered slightly different, with Texas leading the way with now 3 ranked wins on their resume compared to Penn State, Oregon, and Alabama's three combined.

This is another eliminator week, as 4 playoff eligible teams are playing ranked opponents, and at least 1 is guaranteed to lose.

RANKTEAMRECORDCONFPOINTSTEAMVSOS
1Ohio State9-06-0203.51313.22393.978
2Michigan9-06-0199.79613.11089.197
3Florida State9-07-0198.76412.90780.897
4Washington9-06-0194.85312.72792.073
5Georgia9-06-0185.98812.69083.451
6Texas8-15-1179.12312.795100.932
7Penn State8-15-1173.60412.76388.949
8James Madison9-06-0172.78411.33961.456
9Oregon8-15-1172.57412.70484.470
10Alabama8-16-0172.01612.74695.094
11Ole Miss8-15-1168.09412.25491.092
12Louisville8-15-1160.42311.98286.647
13Liberty9-07-0157.82210.42235.610
14Oklahoma7-24-2145.47112.03993.822
15Notre Dame7-3-----141.11011.75485.657
16Oregon State7-24-2137.82911.45791.022
17Tennessee7-23-2132.33611.50186.067
18Tulane8-15-0132.01810.07352.402
19Air Force8-15-0132.0109.42244.855
20Kansas7-24-2131.99711.10589.538
21Fresno State8-14-1131.7459.85646.086
22Missouri7-23-2131.60411.44292.101
23Utah7-24-2130.96111.54798.357
24Kansas State6-34-2128.37511.73598.616
25Oklahoma State7-25-1127.83711.07886.293
26Troy7-24-1127.73110.66463.445
27Toledo8-15-0127.7248.98040.880
28USC7-35-2127.62710.91098.596
29Iowa7-24-2124.51610.50986.033
30North Carolina7-23-2122.57210.48080.885
31LSU6-34-2121.65111.759100.015
32Memphis7-24-1110.3398.78154.842
33Arizona6-34-2108.79910.67187.057
34Duke6-33-2108.33410.59186.883
35UCLA6-33-3107.50410.45783.427
36Miami (OH)7-24-1107.2357.82340.600
37SMU7-25-0106.5219.20544.767
38West Virginia6-34-2101.8829.84670.915
39UNLV7-24-1101.7828.01255.741
40Miami6-32-3101.6559.53793.107
41Rutgers6-33-396.3529.41790.708
42NC State6-33-294.7329.25185.508
43Kentucky6-33-391.5449.44185.631
44Texas A&M5-43-386.65910.17888.423
45Coastal Carolina6-34-285.6297.81168.639
46Jacksonville State7-35-184.5005.91243.476
47Georgia Southern6-33-282.5486.74859.764
48Clemson5-42-481.9119.73194.057
49Wyoming6-33-280.7337.30266.633
50Boston College6-33-278.3937.81670.798
51Georgia State6-33-376.5126.82869.289
52UTSA6-35-075.8877.16955.634
53Texas State6-33-274.9736.28355.696
54Georgia Tech5-44-274.6518.22594.483
55Iowa State5-44-274.5878.89597.527
56Wisconsin5-43-374.5379.11587.639
57Auburn5-42-472.1258.89687.535
58New Mexico State7-35-170.6924.43539.730
59Florida5-43-369.5538.27798.654
60Ohio6-33-267.7685.81639.812
61Minnesota5-43-366.1748.18393.528
62Maryland5-42-464.4928.24784.638
63Nebraska5-43-361.8247.60584.191
64BYU5-42-459.5136.88192.564
65Western Kentucky5-43-256.4676.07754.269
66TCU4-52-453.1228.05296.558
67Texas Tech4-53-350.0858.15996.844
68Louisiana5-42-348.9455.06054.065
69Bowling Green5-43-248.5744.99560.762
70Arkansas State5-43-247.9784.34764.716
71Appalachian State5-43-245.9275.33662.040
72Colorado4-51-544.3287.058101.514
73Washington State4-51-543.3256.76291.737
74Illinois4-52-440.2406.77796.387
75Virginia Tech4-53-240.0356.64883.547
76Mississippi State4-51-539.6806.43893.075
77UCF4-51-539.2166.47983.898
78South Alabama4-52-338.4906.37867.974
79Northwestern4-52-438.4675.95189.349
80Boise State4-53-236.4716.45971.527
81San Jose State4-53-235.0785.64374.714
82Houston4-52-434.3425.80487.422
83Wake Forest4-51-530.5775.68685.196
84Syracuse4-50-530.0145.37976.572
85Northern Illinois4-53-229.4243.63140.721
86Utah State4-52-329.1514.68862.209
87Central Michigan5-43-226.1472.94049.536
88South Carolina3-61-525.0236.54098.714
89Arkansas3-61-524.9166.70190.235
90Marshall4-51-422.1584.13870.027
91Rice4-52-319.7394.07357.563
92Old Dominion4-53-319.7383.90471.309
93Stanford3-62-519.4944.756101.837
94Cal3-61-517.2086.19996.333
95Indiana3-61-516.3345.27095.001
96FAU4-53-215.3003.70754.604
97Michigan State3-61-510.7545.090103.992
98Army3-6-----1.1733.34764.697
99USF4-52-3-1.1883.07851.457
100Baylor3-62-4-1.3564.14292.969
101Buffalo3-63-2-1.8252.24257.290
102UAB3-62-3-4.1033.18562.859
103Eastern Michigan4-52-3-5.2621.65737.542
104Navy3-52-3-6.2152.40654.857
105Colorado State3-61-4-6.9162.83856.720
106Purdue2-71-5-7.1644.953101.624
107Western Michigan3-62-3-7.1842.59859.233
108Virginia2-71-4-7.7563.932105.616
109FIU4-51-5-11.1591.20642.266
110Pitt2-71-4-13.2854.18196.465
111Arizona State2-71-5-14.1463.757109.968
112San Diego State3-61-4-14.1622.50069.100
113Tulsa3-61-4-15.8131.76361.539
114North Texas3-61-4-15.8422.36252.340
115Charlotte3-62-3-19.8021.50157.804
116Cincinnati2-70-6-22.0493.37588.274
117LA Tech3-72-4-25.2401.56950.984
118New Mexico3-61-4-25.2881.29060.547
119UMass3-7------25.3041.51064.988
120Vanderbilt2-80-6-28.3742.62595.879
121Temple3-61-4-30.0290.78357.228
122Middle Tennessee2-71-4-30.1212.05258.355
123Nevada2-72-3-30.7111.32565.924
124UTEP3-72-4-33.7571.19056.825
125Hawaii3-71-4-38.8621.14062.852
126Southern Miss2-71-5-40.1431.29172.151
127Ball State2-71-4-40.2531.06561.659
128UL Monroe2-70-6-48.6220.76071.886
129East Carolina1-80-5-58.7161.43862.482
130Akron2-71-4-60.3980.32544.754
131UConn1-8------60.5971.02871.880
132Sam Houston1-80-5-69.7380.51954.970
133Kent State1-80-5-81.3830.15750.591

0 Comments
2023/11/07
15:04 UTC

2

Favorite stats for analyzing the passing game?

Looking at the run game, I find that Line Yards, secondary yards, and open field yards tell a really good story of the run game. I haven't found any think equivalent for the pass game.

Do y'all have any good passing stats you like? I'm thinking some combination of Average Depth of Target, Average Depth of Completion, Average Yards after Catch would paint a good picture of the passing game? But I don't know where I could find this data...

Any ideas for useful passing play data and where to find it?

3 Comments
2023/11/03
13:49 UTC

4

2023 CFB RP Points Standings (Week 9)

WELCOME TO THE WEEK 9 RESULTS OF THE 2023 CFB RP POINTS STANDINGS!

My mathematical formula ranks teams based on how many points they earn over the course of the season (similar to the NHL and MLS), and the value of each win or loss is based on the Massey Composite Rating. These rankings will be posted weekly here on r/CFBAnalysis.

Click the links below to see past rankings and how the formula works.

Preseason Rankings/Formula

Week 1 Rankings

Week 2 Rankings

Week 3 Rankings

Week 4 Rankings

Week 5 Rankings

Week 6 Rankings

Week 7 Rankings

Week 8 Rankings

WEEK 10 MATCHUPS

RANKED MATCHUPS

  • #4 Washington @ #17 USC
  • #5 Georgia vs #18 Missouri
  • #6 Texas vs #19 Kansas State
  • #10 Alabama vs #20 LSU

KEY MATCHUPS

  • #7 James Madison @ Georgia State
  • #11 Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State
  • #12 Ole Miss vs Texas A&M
  • #13 Notre Dame @ Clemson

WEEK 9 RANKINGS

The formula is finally nearing its full intended strength. I suspect that the top 6 teams in this weeks standings will be the top 6 teams in the committees initial rankings tonight, although likely in a slightly different order.

#1 Michigan and #2 Ohio State are separated by only 0.184 points which is essentially a dead tie. If both teams enter the final week of the season undefeated, expect them to be #1 and #2 here and in the committee rankings.

There is a huge drop-off after Washington at #4, mostly due to Georgia not having played their toughest games yet (which will be the next three weeks). I fully expect them the climb up into the top 3 if they continue to win.

JMU and Air Force are still up there as a result of their valuable early season schedules, but if you look at the points in terms of avg value of a win for each team, JMU and Air Force sit at #21 and #24 respectively, which very close to their actual AP Poll rankings. I expect them to slowly drop back down the standings as the clear playoff contenders emerge.

RANKTEAMRECORDCONFPOINTSTEAMVSOS
1Michigan8-05-0178.45513.16188.296
2Ohio State8-05-0178.27113.22994.474
3Florida State8-06-0176.85812.97279.994
4Washington8-05-0169.11412.69493.616
5Georgia8-05-0159.36212.57880.037
6Texas7-14-1156.63612.780101.509
7James Madison8-05-0151.39811.03663.746
8Oregon7-14-1149.55912.66385.541
9Air Force8-05-0147.84711.17044.949
10Alabama7-15-0147.14012.62694.001
11Oklahoma7-14-1146.20912.37992.958
12Ole Miss7-14-1144.61012.20289.689
13Notre Dame7-2-----144.25512.21682.886
14Penn State7-14-1143.99112.59985.256
15Liberty8-06-0141.88510.29236.426
16Louisville7-14-1133.91211.56182.902
17USC7-25-1133.30811.293100.982
18Missouri7-13-1132.15411.59790.176
19Kansas State6-24-1125.48811.79196.598
20LSU6-24-1121.31011.94199.287
21Oregon State6-23-2119.29211.41393.137
22Tulane7-14-0117.01210.09051.592
23Fresno State7-13-1114.3959.65248.846
24UCLA6-23-2113.75411.18685.629
25Tennessee6-23-2113.63111.22084.806
26Utah6-23-2113.42011.318101.380
27Toledo7-14-0111.4518.62940.129
28Kansas6-23-2109.17810.76789.749
29Iowa6-23-2108.46110.55188.509
30Miami (OH)7-24-1107.2727.77240.776
31North Carolina6-23-2105.97110.31777.995
32Oklahoma State6-24-1105.20010.47187.157
33Miami6-22-2105.19910.00488.723
34Troy6-23-1103.39010.02461.049
35Rutgers6-23-2100.0919.42590.270
36Memphis6-23-194.8128.68854.404
37Georgia Southern6-23-193.9777.93359.717
38Jacksonville State7-25-193.4936.61242.761
39Duke5-32-290.21410.41385.765
40SMU6-24-089.4768.90747.282
41Georgia State6-23-286.9557.71370.733
42Texas A&M5-33-285.78110.23288.044
43Wisconsin5-33-285.77910.17690.721
44Arizona5-33-285.50410.02190.419
45UNLV6-23-183.2247.26958.836
46Iowa State5-34-180.5519.42499.207
47West Virginia5-33-277.2438.88570.022
48Minnesota5-33-276.5219.14296.169
49Florida5-33-275.0978.76795.551
50Nebraska5-33-272.6018.66787.228
51NC State5-32-272.4608.26787.046
52Ohio6-33-270.1306.02041.365
53Coastal Carolina5-33-270.0377.56667.776
54Maryland5-32-369.2368.48483.332
55Kentucky5-32-368.8548.45485.179
56BYU5-32-365.8327.70090.757
57Wyoming5-32-265.3687.14566.964
58Louisiana5-32-261.9586.37252.620
59TCU4-42-358.9838.64696.212
60Clemson4-42-457.7518.62292.613
61Boston College5-32-257.2516.79270.763
62New Mexico State6-34-156.8754.03439.858
63Washington State4-41-456.6077.94094.456
64Auburn4-41-455.3458.58486.975
65UTSA5-34-054.7946.17551.697
66Colorado4-41-452.2987.525105.174
67Texas State5-32-252.2454.98756.107
68Georgia Tech4-43-251.7717.04292.984
69Virginia Tech4-43-147.1027.27883.732
70Mississippi State4-41-445.9327.04089.047
71South Alabama4-42-243.1846.58665.304
72Northwestern4-42-343.0726.25692.266
73Western Kentucky4-42-242.3175.91354.853
74Northern Illinois4-43-141.5104.44240.626
75Boise State4-43-141.4376.87974.058
76San Jose State4-53-237.2325.90276.390
77Syracuse4-40-436.3995.84572.150
78Bowling Green4-42-235.8954.80159.459
79Marshall4-41-333.5745.09869.246
80Wake Forest4-41-431.2595.59983.467
81Texas Tech3-52-329.0947.23396.034
82Old Dominion4-43-228.8474.19473.754
83Arkansas State4-42-227.4533.20264.560
84Rice4-42-226.9184.21156.642
85Appalachian State4-42-226.8944.14964.107
86Cal3-51-423.5406.75298.300
87FAU4-43-123.2864.10451.981
88UCF3-50-522.9126.06981.960
89Illinois3-51-421.3186.13498.438
90Utah State3-51-315.5054.54566.725
91Houston3-51-415.2625.18884.945
92Navy3-42-210.9823.67454.025
93Central Michigan4-42-210.8322.24250.173
94South Carolina2-61-56.8405.83498.042
95Buffalo3-53-16.7632.38058.506
96USF4-42-26.3793.24950.903
97Baylor3-52-35.9474.40090.024
98Arkansas2-60-55.1335.88892.245
99Colorado State3-51-34.4973.38860.848
100Virginia2-61-31.4274.662102.412
101San Diego State3-51-31.0783.16472.956
102Tulsa3-51-30.3232.40562.347
103Stanford2-61-50.2663.972104.438
104Purdue2-61-4-0.7335.304103.851
105Eastern Michigan4-52-3-3.7671.70838.688
106North Texas3-51-3-5.0512.57152.831
107Arizona State2-61-4-5.3634.666111.515
108Indiana2-60-5-5.6093.76094.593
109Western Michigan3-62-3-6.2022.54460.176
110Michigan State2-60-5-7.2394.294103.953
111Pitt2-61-3-8.5664.01495.580
112FIU4-51-5-10.0341.29142.709
113Cincinnati2-60-5-12.1723.70287.068
114New Mexico3-51-3-13.2141.64159.536
115Nevada2-62-2-15.3502.06664.586
116UAB2-61-3-16.9762.60865.916
117LA Tech3-62-3-17.3161.75952.651
118Middle Tennessee2-61-3-19.0062.41159.465
119Vanderbilt2-70-5-21.9462.60492.839
120UTEP3-62-3-23.9461.37256.440
121Army2-6------25.7721.66665.328
122Charlotte2-61-3-32.0661.14561.524
123Ball State2-61-3-32.9611.12661.370
124UL Monroe2-60-5-37.3361.06468.073
125UMass2-7------41.4561.07861.404
126Temple2-60-4-44.7650.48257.933
127UConn1-7------54.7691.27669.813
128Hawaii2-70-4-55.2990.73565.018
129East Carolina1-70-4-55.3731.32263.118
130Southern Miss1-70-5-57.4390.72070.680
131Kent State1-70-4-68.4330.26650.086
132Akron1-70-4-74.3860.22742.328
133Sam Houston0-80-5-77.3530.58257.741

0 Comments
2023/10/31
13:45 UTC

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