/r/dataisbeautiful
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DataIsBeautiful is for visualizations that effectively convey information. Aesthetics are an important part of information visualization, but pretty pictures are not the sole aim of this subreddit.
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/r/dataisbeautiful
It seems like for three elections now polls have underestimated Trump voters. So I wanted to see how far off they were this year.
Interestingly, the polls across all swing states seem to be off by a consistent amount. This suggest to me an issues with methodology. It seems like pollsters haven't been able to adjust to changes in technology or society.
The other possibility is that Trump surged late and that it wasn't captured in the polls. However, this seems unlikely. And I can't think of any evidence for that.
Data is from 538: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/ Download button is at the bottom of the page
Tools: Python and I used the Pandas and Seaborn packages.