Hi everyone! It’s been way too long since my last post in this series, where I discussed how dems can win back Alaska. Today, we’ll look at the state that is the second most likely to join the blue team after not being within our column for the past 60 years: Kansas.

When it comes to Kansas, it isn’t exactly known for being the most exciting place in the country. Probably the most common images associated with the Sunflower State are its flat landscapes (the terrain of Kansas is actually flatter than a pancake), endless wheat fields, or maybe even the Wizard of Oz. But when it comes to its political landscape, Kansas is anything but barren. Though it was last won by a dem during the presidential election of 1964 while also holding the title of the state that has gone the longest without electing a dem senate candidate (the last time being all the way back in 1932), Kansas has undergone some extremely interesting changes during the past couple of decades. In fact, we may be looking at this longstanding red bastion becoming a potential swing state as soon as 2032! In fact, a recent poll dropped showing Kansas within a 5 point margin! Crazy right? Dare say unbelievable! Well, allow me to explain why this may not be so farfetch'd.

The shift towards team blue is really evident when looking at the margins for both the 2016 and 2020 elections. Between these two elections, Kansas shifted around 6 points left, which marks one of the biggest blue shifts that took place between those two cycles. This also marked the first time Kansas voted to the left of Missouri since 1916. Let’s peek under the hood and see what powered a shift such as this one. Firstly, let us take a look at the major population centers of Kansas. There are three that are particularly noteworthy: The Kansas City- KS metropolitan area and the Wichita metro. Let’s explore the former first, as that is the largest and most critical component in turning Kansas blue. There are a few counties that encompass the KC-KS metropolitan area. The more populated counties include Wyandotte, Johnson, Douglas, and Miami counties, while the rest of the metro contains a smattering of small red exurbs and rural areas.

Of these counties, by far the biggest and most influential is Johnson County. This county is the critical reason why blue Kansas can become a reality. A historically conservative county, it went over a century without voting for a dem. That was until 2020, when Joe Biden flipped the county for the first time since 1916. Not only that, but Biden was the first dem presidential candidate to win a majority of the county's vote since 1896. The major suburbs that make up much of the population of this county, such as Olathe, Overland Park, and Shawnee, all shifted leftward by double digits from 2016 to 2020. Needless to say, this county flipping is a watershed moment in making Kansas a place for dems to grow. But why exactly did it flip?

Well, Johnson County (JoCo) is a quintessential example of the suburban shifts we are seeing all throughout the country, as former ruby red GOP strongholds are now becoming much more purple or light blue. It helps that over half of the residents of JoCo are college educated or above, and with higher educated voters becoming a more democratic constituency, we can expect further leftward shifts as we have more cycles. In fact, dems in 2022 really did well in this county. Laura Kelly won with around 56% of the vote, and even Mark Holland, the D senate candidate running against incumbent Jerry Moran, won the county. Quite a feat for someone running against a more uncontroversial Republican. It's safe to say that JoCo should cause republicans a considerable amount of concern for their long term prospects in the state.

But JoCo isn't the only KC metro county worth paying attention to. Douglas County is also growing and shifting further blue. Same with Wyandotte, though it was already quite blue. Shawnee County is another decently sized county that flipped red to blue in 2020 thanks to the shifts in Topeka and its suburbs. Riley County, whose main population center is Fort Riley, flipped blue for the first time in its county history, so running the numbers up here will also be helpful.

But now we have the larger hurdle to a blue Kansas: the Wichita Metro. An area that also has been a historically conservative one, it is seeing similar shifts to that of Johnson, but to a lesser extent. Sedgwick county is a key bellwether for determining how Kansas will go, as seen in 2022 when Laura Kelly was the only statewide Dem to win the county. It's a more difficult lift given its lower rates of educational attainment compared to JoCo, higher rates of religiosity, and it being a county centered on the aerospace industry. But these factors are only slowing the inevitable, as the city of Wichita itself shifted 7 points and is very likely to flip this year. Other larger cities within Sedgwick county, such as Andover and Bel Air, shifted by around 10 points too. It will be a tough climb, but continuing to gain ground is something we absolutely can do.

Lastly, I wanted to touch on the rurals. Much of Kansas, especially the west, is basically rural farmland. These areas have been another major reason for Kansas’ conservative streak. But these areas are losing population and are essentially as red as they can be, but doing what we can to cut the margins here will go a long way.

So that's Kansas for you. Historically very red, but within a couple cycles, we might have another swing state on our hands.

Hi all, American (CT) living in Germany here. As you can see, I screwed up. Would anyone happen to know if there are cheaper shipping options available? I‘ve checked FedEx and it was almost double, and the UPS site isn’t even working when I try to get a quote.

So I’ve been a dumb kid by not changing my license over the years and I’ve now lived in 2 different states over the time since I’ve had my license. I have a Massachusetts license have lived in Florida for 3 years without changing it (I thought it wasn’t important at the time) and now I live in Ct for the past 4 months and haven’t had the time to switch it over and have been trying to get the money saved to go switch. I want to Vote and make my voice heard but I can’t seem to understand how to do so. I need someone’s help to guide me through this. I’m open to Dms! Any help helps😂

Jon Tester is a good man and a true Montanan. And, unlike his opponent, Jon is pro-choice and pro-union. I'm rooting for him.

If you are in Montana, please vote for Jon for senate

https://jontester.com/

5 more days to move the ball & run up the score. You'll tell your grandkids one day what we did to defeat Donald Trump & MAGA at the ballot box.

Me? I'm volunterring with Powered By People to reach Texas Voters today and this weekend, calling with Colin Allred's team on Tuesday, & will be sending more texts with Next Gen Pac to young voters in swing states if I have some extra time.

Want to help reach voters across the country? Mobilize.us is a great resource and has multiple opportunities in the next 5 days.

Want to see which of your family & friends need an extra nudge to vote? Setup the Reach App.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/26/2278785/-Just-15-minutes-to-setup-the-Reach-app-so-you-re-ready-to-friendbank-your-peeps-who-haven-t-voted

My son's ballot was rejected because of a signature mismatch. That doesn't surprise me because he so rarely signs anything. Maybe it's a young person thing. I dunno. But he wouldn't have known his ballot was invalid unless we'd looked.

I guess what I'm trying to say is CHECK YOUR BALLOT. Even if you dropped the damn thing off yourself (as we all did) your vote may not be counted. Michigan made it really easy. Can't speak for any other states.

Michigan's website https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://mvic.sos.state.mi.us/Voter/Index&ved=2ahUKEwj1zbOqo7uJAxVXkokEHar4JqkQr5QDegQILRBF&usg=AOvVaw164Nx5ZAV40JqvP6fLxhhY

I spent a few years travel nursing, and used my parents place as my residence for registration and tax purposes. I bought a house several months ago, but because of long DMV wait times I have not updated my license. Can I vote where my license is registered despite not living there for several months?

Our Adopt-A-Candidate campaign for 2024 has launched!

If you’re new to r/VoteDem, this campaign allows you to chose one - or more - candidates you commit to volunteer for throughout the year.

It’s by no means exhaustive - we will be continually adding more candidates to this list over the next few months. And if you want to adopt a candidate who isn’t on the list, just let us know.

Want to adopt a candidate? Tell us in this thread or send us a modmail!

First time voting and I feel proud! Took a nice walk to the local ballot box and dropped it off. Also happy halloween everyone! 🎃👻 Let's do this! ☺️

We got married in September and just haven't had time to go to all of the different places to get her name changed through social security and updated at SOS. How does this affect her registration and her voting? I plan on calling the clerks office tomorrow as I just thought of this. Voting is super important to us so I want to make sure she will be able to. We live in MI if this makes any difference.

Google wasn’t very helpful and I’m fxxked if I need my RC, I probably threw it away by mistake 😬

I received my ballot at my correct street address, but my zip code +4 was changed, and when I look it up online it belongs to an address miles away, on the other side of my zip area. When I requested my ballot, there was NO option to enter my address, yet it’s correct on my voter registration card. It’s also correct on the general mailer to all voters, an item I received AFTER I received my ballot, like it was switched back to reflect my correct address instead of the error on my ballot. Why would this have happened, and is it enough of an error to cause my ballot to be rejected when I return it?

(FWIW, I’m an extremely minority dem in a blood red county.)