I've put together something of a challenge rating for each game in the Saint's 2025 fixture using historical data. All data has been pulled from AFL Tables.

Method

I transformed St Kilda's winrate against each team (using the last 5 games played) and thier winrate at each location (using up to the last 20 games played) into a rating out of 11, with a winrate of 0% resulting in a rating of 11 and a winrate of 100% resulting in a rating of 1. Venues with very few games to draw from (like Traeger and Norwood) were given a winrate of 50%, the team winrates were also weighted by a factor of 2 to represent that the team is more important than the location. I then combined the two ratings and turned them into a percentage of the total points available, which was then transformed back into a rating, only this time with a higher percentage resulting in a higher score.

For reference, a team that St Kilda has a 50% winrate against being played at a venue they have a 50% winrate at would result in a challenge rating of 8.

Results

Key: 1-3 (Very Easy), 4-6 (Easy), 7-9 (Moderate), 10-12 (Hard), 13-15 (Very Hard)

Obviously there's only soo much that can be gleaned through the past, and performances in previous years don't dictate future performances. But I thought having a look at it from the perspective of the Saint's performance in recent years, taking the venues into consideration, would be an interesting little experiment.

No disrespect to our current captain but is it time we gave the job to someone other than Jack Steele? After a terrific trade period would it be wise to take the pressure off Steele and handball the captaincy to Cal Wilkie? My reasoning in replacing Steele would be his poor body language and an inability to inspire his fanbase. I'm not sure how he perceived internally but it would be nice to have a captain who is a more commanding presence on field.
Thoughts?

With the list now complete, I've had a crack at what the round 1 side could look like (way too early).

My thoughts: • I'd love to see Keeler and Arie getting a crack down back but we will probably be stuck with Dougal again • One of Tauru or Travaglia probably gets picked in round 1, it would be great to see both picked early • Macrae and Carrol come straight in • Sharman hopefully gets an extended crack at it, could play round 1 but might get squeezed out

Our depth looks awful and a couple of injury to best 22 will be a disaster. If Marshall goes down we are screwed 😂

The logo is a solid update and transition. As much as I miss the “fortius quo fidelius” having the establishment year is pretty powerful. The saints are an old club and we should be proud of its longevity considering its severe lack of on field success. The discrepancy in font sizing does bite away at me, but I like the clean composition. Looks good on most assets, maybe the place it looks the worst is on the home jumper…

Also this version is easier for kids to draw, which surely we have all been in this position right?

Its draft night and it seems like we wont get any of ghe A grade midfielders tonight!! Cant help but think if only Jack Higgins missed that snap... but also would be devo if we played to lose.

Whats everyones predictions?

https://youtu.be/b02qrknyyVo?si=9NbkpFAqxJLCl50h

Yes, I know... It's way too early...

Arki Butler (an early first rounder?) 180cm, Small Forward:

Arguably Vic Metro’s standout player and prospect, Butler is a mercurial type with great evasiveness and goal sense. He was dangerous wherever he went; whether playing deep inside 50, as a high forward or through midfield. He often made the opposition look silly and proved both skilful and athletic enough to back up his excellent decision making. Butler also has ties to the top level, as the grandson of 250-game St Kilda premiership player, Allan Davis.

Jevan Phillipou (a second rounder?) 181cm, Mid-Forward:

Possessing good athleticism and guts in aerial contests, the bottom-ager’s clean hands and ability to lose opponents with pirouettes helps manufacture chances on goal, either by snapping towards the big sticks or centring to the hot spot. Phillipou was not afraid to use either foot and got good range on some of his kicks. Brother of Mattaes Phillipou.

Both these guys would fulfil needs that we have as a club. Would love to see the Pou brothers help Allan Davis continue the family tradition of being St Kilda premiership players :).