Both are far inhumane, but why is one not discontinued like the other ?

For a character with relatively few fan theories about him, Harry Strickland is suspicious. As the captain-general of the Golden Company, he stands to play a major plot role in Aegon’s campaign in TWOW. At the same time, GRRM emphasizes to the reader how craven and pathetic Harry is, and how much Jon Connington despises him for those reasons. I believe this has specific payoff: that JonCon is going to kill Harry.

###JonCon: Outta Time

One of the central drivers of Jon’s character arc is the race against the clock, made clear from the very first sentence of his POV:

It should not have taken this long, Griff told himself as he paced the deck of the Shy Maid. Had they lost Haldon as they had Tyrion Lannister? Could the Volantenes have taken him? I should have sent Duckfield with him. Haldon alone could not be trusted; he had proved that in Selhorys when he let the dwarf escape. (The Lost Lord, ADWD)

A few paragraphs later, his spoken dialogue in his POV reinforces it:

"Where in the seven hells is Haldon?" Griff complained to Lady Lemore. "How long should it take to buy three horses?"

She shrugged. "My lord, wouldn't it be safer to leave the boy here aboard the boat?"

"Safer, yes. Wiser, no. He is a man grown now, and this is the road that he was born to walk." Griff had no patience for this quibbling. He was sick of hiding, sick of waiting, sick of caution. I do not have time enough for caution. (The Lost Lord, ADWD)

Jon has sacrificed wisdom and caution for speed because of his terminal greyscale:

Death, he knew, but slow. I still have time. A year. Two years. Five. Some stone men live for ten. Time enough to cross the sea, to see Griffin's Roost again. To end the Usurper's line for good and all, and put Rhaegar's son upon the Iron Throne.

Then Lord Jon Connington could die content. (The Lost Lord, ADWD)

Jon has already taken less-than-cautious strategic shortcuts — revealing Aegon to the Golden Company, invading Westeros, moving on Storm’s End — but they will only get him so far, before Jon must needs turn towards moral shortcuts, terrible, pseudo-Machiavellian tactics and behavior. Others have written about this; I specifically recommend this essay from BryndenBFish. If becoming a violent, “pragmatic”, Tywin-esque leader is the path to beating time, Jon will do it, but not at all once; Jon is a good man, who raised his best friend’s son and saved Tyrion from drowning. He will not become a cruel villain overnight; rather, he will gradually take more and worse moral shortcuts as his clock ticks, beginning with some understandable evils and ending with wholly unnecessary crimes (the killing of Red Ronnet’s siblings and son, sack of King’s Landing). Those understandable evils are key to eroding Jon’s moral fiber and to depicting his descent in as the human heart in conflict with itself.

###JonCon hates Harry (and so does GRRM)

It is comical how much Jon Connington despises Harry Strickland. Reread Jon’s two POV chapters and focus on Strickland, you see how hard Jon tries to stop from exploding on him:

Homeless Harry looked little like a warrior. Portly, with a big round head, mild grey eyes, and thinning hair that he brushed sideways to conceal a bald spot, Strickland sat in a camp chair soaking his feet in a tub of salt water. "You will pardon me if I do not rise," he said by way of greeting. "Our march was wearisome, and my toes are prone to blisters. It is a curse."

It is a mark of weakness. You sound like an old woman. The Stricklands had been part of the Golden Company since its founding, Harry's great-grandsire having lost his lands when he rose with the Black Dragon during the first Blackfyre Rebellion. "Gold for four generations," Harry would boast, as if four generations of exile and defeat were something to take pride in. (The Lost Lord, ADWD)

Franklyn Flowers laughed. "I like it. Sail west, not east. Leave the little queen to her olives and seat Prince Aegon upon the Iron Throne. The boy has stones, give him that."

The captain-general looked as if someone had slapped his face. "Has the sun curdled your brains, Flowers? We need the girl. We need the marriage. If Daenerys accepts our princeling and takes him for her consort, the Seven Kingdoms will do the same. Without her, the lords will only mock his claim and brand him a fraud and a pretender. And how do you propose to get to Westeros? You heard Lysono. There are no ships to be had."

This man is afraid to fight, Griff realized. How could they have chosen him to take the Blackheart's place?” (The Lost Lord, ADWD)

"The demon road is death. We will lose half the company to desertion if we attempt that march, and bury half of those who remain beside the road. It grieves me to say it, but Magister Illyrio and his friends may have been unwise to put so much hope on this child queen."

No, thought Griff, but they were most unwise to put their hopes on you. (The Lost Lord, ADWD)

"Even so," said Strickland, "alone, we cannot hope to—"

Griff had heard enough of the captain-general's cowardice. (The Lost Lord, ADWD)

"The Dornishman is scared of his own shadow. Not what you call daring."

No more than you. "Prince Doran is a cautious man, that's true. He will never join us unless he is convinced that we will win. So to persuade him we must show our strength."

"If Peake and Rivers are successful, we will control the better part of Cape Wrath," argued Strickland. "Four castles in as many days, that's a splendid start, but we are still only at half strength. We need to wait for the rest of my men. We are missing horses as well, and the elephants. Wait, I say. Gather our power, win some small lords to our cause, let Lysono Maar dispatch his spies to learn what we can learn of our foes."

Connington gave the plump captain-general a cool look. This man is no Blackheart, no Bittersteel, no Maelys. He would wait until all seven hells were frozen if he could rather than risk another bout of blisters. (The Griffin Reborn, ADWD)

Not only does Jon hate Harry, GRRM clearly wants the readers to think Harry is pathetic, giving him one of the feeblest character introductions in ASOIAF: sitting and whining about his blisters. Read this and ask yourself if we are supposed to respect Harry:

Strickland beckoned to his squire. "Watkyn, a towel. This water's growing cool, and my toes have wrinkled up like raisins. No, not that towel, the soft one." (The Lost Lord, ADWD)

Strickland is the commander of a famed sellsword company, and yet depicted like this; he does not appear interested in fighting, complains about all of our POV’s plans and without offering alternatives besides ‘do nothing’, and is the last of the Golden Company’s officers to kneel to Aegon. GRRM clearly wants us to not care for him…but why?

###Headless Harry Strickland

Harry Strickland’s caution, calls for delay — cowardice, to Jon — is incompatible with Jon’s race against the clock. Appreciating that, Jon’s contempt for Harry takes a deeper meaning: Strickland is standing in the way of Jon’s life purpose. Strickland has already bypassed Jon to tried to convince Aegon to delay their attacks, to Jon’s chagrin:

The prince sat. "We've been talking with Strickland and Flowers. **They told us about this attack on Storm's End that you're planning."

Jon Connington did not let his fury show. "And did Homeless Harry try to persuade you to delay it?"

"He did, actually," the prince said, "but I won't. Harry's an old maid, isn't he?" (The Griffin Reborn, ADWD)

There is no reason to believe Strickland will cease calls for caution and delay, and as captain-general, Strickland holds sway and influence on the campaign:

Now that he had seen and heard the man himself, that struck him as a very bad idea. He hoped that Griff had better sense. Some allies are more dangerous than enemies. But Lord Connington will need to puzzle that one out for himself. (Tyrion VII, ADWD)

Strickland is a dangerous ally to Jon’s purpose. As such, Jon will have Strickland killed to remove his “poisonous” influence. A new captain-general — possibly a Jon ally like Franklyn Flowers — will be more amendable to Jon’s less-than-cautious tactics, and simply not annoy Jon as much. Given the clock, Jon will find the understandable evils end of the moral shortcuts more and more appealing…and it just so happens that not only does Strickland favor delay, Jon personally disdains him. Killing him will still be an evil — Strickland is said to be friendly and is an ally — but something Jon can rationalize without degrading his entire morality (that comes later) and readers can accept because we do not think highly of Harry.

It probably will not be directly by Jon’s hand; that could have political ramifications for Aegon’s cause and personally murdering an ally is a much faster step down the morality ladder. Rather, Jon could send Strickland into a dangerous place in battle to get him killed, like the Bible’s Uriah. Maybe the bowmen of the GC will shoot arrows in a press where Strickland is present, etc.

Jon could frame Strickland for treason, allowing for his execution. Harry’s love of gold is oft-mentioned; I suspect people could believe Strickland being paid off by the Lannisters, for example. Alternatively, more generously to Jon, Jon’s hatred of Strickland may make him more susceptible to believing that Strickland is a traitor when he is not; his caution could be construed as abetting the enemy. Jon could be delusional — or desperate — enough to believe the flimsiest of evidence of treason. Strickland also really could be a traitor, as there are several lines in ADWD/TWOW samples by characters around Aegon about the uncertainty of sellswords:

A golden skull atop a pole, and Homeless Harry Strickland in his place. Lemore was not wrong, he knew. Whatever their sires or their grandsires might have been back in Westeros before their exile, the men of the Golden Company were sellswords now, and no sellsword could be trusted. (The Lost Lord, ADWD)

"Are they, though? They're sellswords. Yollo warned me to trust no one."

"There is wisdom in that," Griff admitted. It might have been different if Blackheart still commanded, but Myles Toyne was four years dead, and Homeless Harry Strickland was a different sort of man. He would not say that to the boy, however. (The Lost Lord, ADWD)

With Strickland out of the way, it will be better for Jon’s clock management. But better is not good enough, and Jon will continue to pursue moral shortcuts; killing Strickland will erode the shield of goodness of Jon, and then the next evil will be less understandable, and so on, and so forth. We may cheer blister Harry’s end, but not the rest.

TL;DR Jon Connington hates Harry Strickland, whose caution is in direct opposition to Jon’s race against the clock. As part of his moral decline, Jon Connington will turn Homeless Harry Strickland into Headless Harry Strickland to remove his influence from derailing Jon’s plans.

###Bonus Theory: The Butcher Griffin, or Serial Killer Jon Connington

This is a little more ridiculous/half-serious idea, though rooted in the text. It is unlikely that Jon would personally kill Harry, but he still could, maybe frame someone else, blame it on an accident, etc. One benefit of this is that since Arianne will be interacting with Connington, we could learn about it from her POV and have it be a mystery.

Strickland is not likely to be Jon’s last victim. I suspect Haldon Halfmaester will be another one. A video from Quinn the GM put me onto this. Quinn argued that Haldon may suspect Jon has greyscale since he knows he jumped into the Chroyane as Tyrion did (apparently he did not suggest Jon test himself like Tyrion) and may have noticed that Jon has worn a glove since.

If Haldon were to confront Jon about his suspicions, Jon would be a bad spot; unless perhaps Jon agreed to amputation perhaps (which he won’t do it), Haldon would surely alert others of Connington’s greyscale as soon as he left the conversation. Therefore, **Jon’s best course to keeping his secret would be personally and immediately killing his loyal ally (and friend?) Haldon,**else, the entire Aegon camp may well collapse. Pushing him over a ledge (“an accident”), bisecting him with a sword (the Half in Halfmaester) and accusing him of treason, or some method…it seems crazy, but Haldon has annoyed Jon and Jon doesn’t trust him as much anymore:

After Selhorys, he had found it difficult to put the same trust in Haldon as previously. He let the dwarf beguile him with that glib tongue of his. Let him wander off into a whorehouse alone while he lingered like a mooncalf in the square. (The Lost Lord, ADWD)

That’s victim 2, a further descent down the morality ladder for Jon, much worse than killing Harry. If Strickland and Haldon both die in weird circumstances, others in Aegon’s camp may get suspicious: Lysono Maar, the Golden Company spymaster? Or maybe Daemon Sand, Arianne Martell’s sworn sword? Arianne herself? Lemore? Who else must be silenced? And Jon’s not done there, the child Connington hostages, who he would only harm if Red Ronnet was “an utter fool” (The Griffin Reborn, ADWD)? [Plot-twist, Ronnet totally is, and Jon’s going to murder them too.]( https://www.reddit.com/r/pureasoiaf/comments/1edj4fl/jon_and_red_ronnet_connington_cersei_lannister/]

I did not want the name of butcher. So Robert escaped me and cut down Rhaegar on the Trident. "I failed the father," he said, "but I will not fail the son." (The Griffin Reborn, ADWD)

How many more people will Jon have to silence to keep his life’s goal alive, to keep his secret safe? Jon will become the Butcher Griffin, a serial killer whose good intentions bred great evil. Maybe. It’s a bonus theory for a reason. :)

So traditionally this is a title given to the lord of the Reach but I’ve always been confused does it only apply to the reach or the entire south of Westoros including the Stormlands and Dorne?

If it applies to the entire South shouldn’t this be an elected office maybe one generation it’s given to prince Martell the next to a Baratheon

Also what does a warden do can you be a warden without being a lord?!

I get why she did it but it really wasn’t possible to undo centuries of slavery without another plan. When Xaro brought her those 13 ships he really was speaking so much sense to her that she couldn’t even back it up ( i wish i could add quotes but im on my phone) And when he seen the spice merchant diggin ditches and he begged for him to buy him as a slave.. Maybe she should have giving ppl a choice.. or did an indentured servant situation.. But these ppl are miserable. Dont get me started on the fighting pits.. Question.. If she did take them.. How many could she even get in 13 ships .. not nearly enough ..

During Bran's comma dream, we have this passage:

Bran was staring at his arms, his legs. He was so skinny, just skin stretched taut over bones. Had he always been so thin? He tried to remember. A face swam up at him out of the grey mist, shining with light, golden. "The things I do for love," it said.

Bran screamed.

The crow took to the air, cawing. Not that, it shrieked at him. Forget that, you do not need it now, put it aside, put it away. It landed on Bran's shoulder, and pecked at him, and the shining golden face was gone.

This is during the first book and Bran doesn't seem to ever think back to his fall and how it happened.

Like the Battle on the Green Fork? Could he have planned to betray Ned from the start?

Hello everyone! This is the second part of a theory that means to prove that Jon’s magical proof of his identity was the stabbing the night he attempted to leave the Wall.

To get to that, we need to understand a few things before:

• Rhaegar’s interpretation of the prophecy, how he kept changing his mind
• The vows and the stories behind “the promise”
• How Bael’s song explains The Others’ return and why they are the song of ice and fire and Lightbringer.
• How AGoT’s prologue explains everything we need to know about the Others once some “heroic” behaviors in the main story are clarified.
• Why and how Jon’s death proves who he is and why he was willing to leave the Wall never to return, doubting he was breaking any vow.

Like I said in the previous part, this isn’t a short thing because it covers a lot of material, but there’s a summary at the end if you’d like a shorter version.

• In Part 1 - An introduction to identities and magical proof (previous part) we discussed mysterious identities, usurpers, and kinslayers.
• In Part 2 - The Others made no sound (this part): we’ll discuss the Others, Jon’s mission beyond the Wall, Benjen’s disappearance, and what was the point of the “bundle” with weapons that Jon found near the Fist of the First Men.
• In Part 3 - The Vengeful Spirits: we’ll get to Jon’s proof of his identity and how it ties back to Harrenhal and the legendary heroes.
• In part 4 – They were seven: we’ll see how Ned’s fever dream is half of a song you can only understand using AGoT’s prologue as the other half and how the dream proves that Jon isn’t a bastard.

Main points of Part 1 so you can understand this one:

The Others are attracted by “the smell of fear”. Each time they showed up, there was a sworn brother afraid, first it was Will and then Sam.

Joramun, Lightbringer, and Ice are different names for the same power: the song of ice (sacrifices) and fire (kinslaying).

The point is that the Others are behaving like Lightbringer is supposed to behave, every time they kill “a mean squire” beyond the Wall (related to what Lyanna did in Harrenhal), they bring a bit of “light*” to the other side* of the Wall.

That explains why it’s getting so impossibly cold, with each sacrifice, the sword gets stronger and colder, since the men they kill are not heroes like Nissa Nissa.

PART 2: The Others made no sound

In this part, we’ll examine The Others to understand “their nature”, Jon’s mission beyond the Wall, Benjen’s disappearance, and the ‘bundle’ of weapons.

Before we discuss the “Lightbringer”, I want to clarify something that took me a while to realize and it’s the reason why Jon started acting weird after he read the book that Aemon left for him.

While the Maester’s intention at the time was to warn him against Stannis, he later says something to Sam that implies something else:

He closed his white eyes wearily, then forced them open once again. "I should not have left the Wall. Lord Snow could not have known, but I should have seen it. Fire consumes, but cold preserves. The Wall . . . but it is too late to go running back.” Samwell III - AFfC

This happens as the rumors of dragons start getting to them, so it seems to be about them since Aemon left the Wall with Mance’s child fearing that Melisandre would burn them for some sorcery requiring a king’s blood. But there’s something else that Aemon “should have seen”.

Jon visits Clydas right after what he believes was Mance’s execution (it was Rattleshirt’s) and makes a weird comment because he saw it.

Clydas blinked. "A sword that makes its own heat …" "… would be a fine thing on the Wall." Jon put aside his wine cup and drew on his black moleskin gloves. "A pity that the sword that Stannis wields is cold. I'll be curious to see how his Lightbringer behaves in battle.” Jon III – ADwD

The book says that in battle, the sword “burns fiery hot” and goes on to describe how the monster dies melting. Mance had just burned when this visit happened, so Jon’s notion of the King’s sword behaving the wrong way is interesting, particularly because Jon kept telling them they needed Mance, which led Melisandre to spare him.

The thing is that the Other that Sam killed didn’t behave like the Other that killed Waymar, he seemed weaker, and he was alone.

Of course, nobody but us knows that, but both Aemon and Jon realized that the men who were not coming back from beyond the Wall weren’t especially good, that’s what Aemon means by “fire consumes, but cold preserves”.

While Azor Ahai kills Nissa Nissa because she’s heroic and has great traits, namely her courage, and strength, “the cold” preserves those sorts of people, explaining why Sam survived; in his own way, the kid is brave.

And you know what? Jon tested his theory.

After Stannis leaves the Wall and Jon is trying to get the wildlings to cross agreeing to his terms, he sends three groups of rangers so they can find the wildlings.

Two groups were made of some random brothers, nothing special there, but the third was different. In that group Jon included Ser Allister Thorne:

Jon watched the riders go from atop the Wall—three parties, each of three men, each carrying a pair of ravens. From on high their garrons looked no larger than ants, and Jon could not tell one ranger from another. He knew them, though. Every name was graven on his heart. Eight good men, he thought, and one … well, we shall see.” Jon VI - ADwD

See? He expects the ranging to be some sort of test for Ser Allister, because he realized your behavior makes a difference.

Being someone’s “brother” doesn’t guarantee loyalty and hating someone doesn’t mean you’re a traitor.

As I said earlier, the point of the Others is to end some “darkness” beyond the Wall to get some light on the other side, that’s why you can call them “Lightbringer” or “Ice” or “Joramun” interchangeably.

They are all ways to name the same power: seeing

The right eye was open. The pupil burned blue. It saw.” Prologue - AGoT

Now, let’s examine what happens in AGoT’s prologue to understand this power a bit better.

Did you see any blood?

Three brothers are searching for a group of eight wildlings though we don’t know why. Nine days away from the Wall, one of them, Will, finds them dead and reports that to the leader, Waymar Royce who was a few miles behind him with Gared.

Royce, who’s the very image of the heir, asks a series of questions to understand the scene, paralleling what Rhaegar did in Harrenhal. He asks Will if he saw blood, weapons, and what was the position of the bodies.

Each of those questions points to what we saw in Part 1 regarding the power of the Horn of Winter and how each of Ned’s family members’ downfall mirrors what happened to Rhaegar’s family as if to balance things.

Will says there were “men and women”; one of the women, which he calls “a far eyes” was hiding on the same tree he later hides, and since he used the plural, we can assume that there was at least another woman among the “fallen” people. These women parallel the maiden in Bael’s song, she hides “with the dead” and then falls.

Royce seems to believe that either the wildlings are faking, or Will is lying since he announces he’ll personally go there to see “those dead” himself paralleling Rickard’s decision of demanding a trial by combat to kill the prince and Rhaegar’s announcement that he needed to be a warrior. The Others are judging people too, no doubt.

All day, Will had felt as though something were watching him, something cold and implacable that loved him not. Gared had felt it too. Will wanted nothing so much as to ride hellbent for the safety of the Wall, but that was not a feeling to share with your commander.” Prologue - AGoT

The parallels between Will and Gared feeling something cold that watches them and the position of the three Starks in the crypt, with the sacrificed Lyanna and Brandon keeping watch on both sides of their father is creepy. Particularly because while Gared seems to be ignored by the Others, but when he gets to Winterfell scared to death, Ned kills him, which is ironic as hell.

When Waymar gets to the place where the wildlings are, however, no one is there, so he orders Will to climb the tree and “look for a fire”.

Will saw movement from the corner of his eye. Pale shapes gliding through the wood. He turned his head, glimpsed a white shadow in the darkness. Then it was gone. Branches stirred gently in the wind, scratching at one another with wooden fingers. Will opened his mouth to call down a warning, and the words seemed to freeze in his throat.” Prologue - AGoT

In the beginning, Will sees some shadows, but then as he gets more afraid, the shadows become frozen figures that start surrounding Waymar and one of them faces him sword in hand.

The Others mercilessly butcher the bully ranger while **Will watches the entire thing without making so much as a whisper to warn him. When the whole thing is over, he comes down from the tree thinking how Waymar’s broken sword will be his proof.

He found what was left of the sword a few feet away, the end splintered and twisted like a tree struck by lightning. Will knelt, looked around warily, and snatched it up. The broken sword would be his proof.” Prologue - AGoT

Proof of what exactly? That he just watched as some “creatures” killed his “brother” and laughed while killing him? When he tries to leave with the sword, Waymar rises and chokes him to death*.*

"They say it grows so cold up here in winter that a man's laughter freezes in his throat and chokes him to death," Ned said evenly. "Perhaps that is why the Starks have so little humor." Eddard I – AGoT

The prologue is a summary of the song of Ice and Fire: sacrifices and kinslaying, and the lord's very dark sense of humor as we’ll get to see.

What’s the point of the wights? Every brother we saw dying and rising back seems to come after someone who failed him. Waymar chokes Will because he should have warned him; Othor comes after Mormont, likely because as we learn in Catelyn’s first chapter, the rangers have been going missing for a while.

It seems the Commander wasn’t very resolute until that wake-up call. Small Paul comes after Sam because he died believing that he would give him Mormont’s raven if he carried him.

That’s what they remember, treason.

The thought of Jon filled Ned with a sense of shame, and a sorrow too deep for words. If only he could see the boy again, sit and talk with him … pain shot through his broken leg, beneath the filthy grey plaster of his cast.” Eddard XV - AGoT

To understand where the shadows that killed Waymar came from*,* we need to solve some other mysteries first.

A torch to light the way

At the beginning of the theory, I mentioned how the Night’s Watch vows seem to be about identifying a person, “the promised prince” and how every proof that Jon had of his identity as Ned’s bastard was a lie.

That’s the point of the Last Hero’s legend and the reasoning behind the idea that once you take the vows, you start a new life where all your past is erased.

Jon’s new life started weirdly when the undead Othor tried to kill the Lord Commander. Soon after that, the brothers leave the Wall as the comet is brightening the continent; Jon goes beyond the Wall being the living image of an Old King of Winter.

When the Watch is waiting for Qhorin and his men to join them, one night, Dywen mentions how the air smells “cold”.

His face was leathery and wrinkled, his hands gnarled as old roots. "Seems to me like it smells . . . well . . . cold." "Your head's as wooden as your teeth," Hake told him. "There's no smell to cold." There is, thought Jon, remembering the night in the Lord Commander's chambers. It smells like death.” Jon IV- ACoK

That same night, Ghost leads him to dig out a weird discovery.

The bundle turned, and its contents spilled out onto the ground, glittering dark and bright. (…) Had Ghost uncovered some ancient cache of the children of the forest, buried here for thousands of years? The Fist of the First Men was an old place, only . . . Beneath the dragonglass was an old warhorn, made from an auroch's horn and banded in bronze. Jon shook the dirt from inside it, and a stream of arrowheads fell out. He let them fall, and pulled up a corner of the cloth the weapons had been wrapped in, rubbing it between his fingers. Good wool, thick, a double weave, damp but not rotted. It could not have been long in the ground. And it was dark. He seized a handful and pulled it close to the torch**. Not dark. Black.**

Even before Jon stood and shook it out, he knew what he had: the black cloak of a Sworn Brother of the Night's Watch” Jon IV – ACoK

The bundle seems to be a starter pack to fight Others, since as Sam later discovers, dragonglass “melts” them. The horn, however, is the most curious object because Jon tries to use it, but he can’t get any sound out of it.

The story never seems to come back to this ‘treasure’ and aside from some talking of mining the glass in Dragonstone, it seems that everyone, including Jon, forgets about it. So, what was the point?

Well, each of the elements that Jon found seems to relate to one of the heroes referenced in the vows, the dragonglass fits the idea of dragons, the horn is a reference to Joramun, and the black cloak to the Last Hero.

In fact, Jon’s mission beyond the Wall starts with a mystic aura, since Qhorin sends him to find “the magic” that Mance was looking for “to bring the Wall down”, a magic that apparently was never found, like the KoLT.

Jon had joined the wildlings at Qhorin Halfhand's command. "Ride with them, eat with them, fight with them," the ranger had told him, the night before he died. "And watch." But all his watching had learned him little. The Halfhand had suspected that the wildlings had gone up into the bleak and barren Frostfangs in search of some weapon, some power, some fell sorcery with which to break the Wall . . . but if they had found any such, no one was boasting of it openly, or showing it to Jon. Nor had Mance Rayder confided any of his plans or strategies.” Jon II - ASoS

You know what’s the irony? Jon was the weapon, the power, the “fell sorcery” that Mance was boasting of openly before all the wildlings.

He gathered them in the Frostfangs because there were no trees there, but getting there meant going through miles of woods. The Others are “the shadows in the woods”, so if you leave the woods, they can’t reach you, explaining why the attack on the Fist was made by wights, but no Other appeared until Sam saw one near Craster’s Keep, which was in the middle of the woods.

So, let’s solve some mysteries. Who left that bundle there and why? Most likely, it was Benjen Stark.

Let me explain. When the story begins, Ned tells his wife how Benjen informed him that a lot of rangers had been disappearing, it wasn’t just desertions, ‘someone’ had been killing them, and of course, Ned assumed it was Mance.

Ned saw the dread on her face. "Mance Rayder is nothing for us to fear." Catelyn I – AGoT

Soon after that, when Robert comes to Winterfell, Benjen approaches Jon and seeing he is drunk and sad tells him something that a boy in his situation was desperate to hear:

Benjen gave Jon a careful, measuring look. "You don't miss much, do you, Jon? We could use a man like you on the Wall." Jon I - AGoT

The seed is planted, Jon asks him to join the Watch and Benjen skillfully tells that to Luwin, likely because the Maester came to Winterfell with Catelyn, since he’s not the same Maester that Rickard had, and she mentions how he delivered all her children. Robb was born in Riverrun, not Winterfell. He was her man, and she always wanted to get rid of Jon.

Benjen goes missing almost as soon as Jon gets to the Wall. When Royce disappeared, Mormont was troubled since he was “someone”, not just some random criminal that might have deserted for a woman, but “a lordling” who had joined out of a vocation.

Mormont finally decides that he needs answers when two of Benjen’s men rose during the night and one of them tried to kill him.

Since Jon was more than likely going to be a ranger, he would have joined the search party that would eventually go looking for Benjen.

When Qhorin gets to the Fist with the story of how Mance was looking “for a power”, the Lord Commander lets him choose the men that would join him to try to learn what that was, and for a reason that seems to make absolutely no sense, he chooses Jon.

Qhorin lifted his maimed, two-fingered hand. "The old gods are still strong beyond the Wall. The gods of the First Men . . . and the Starks." Jon V - ACoK

We’ll get back to this statement later, for now, let’s keep with the rangers.

Qhorin not only was Mance’s best friend when the king was still a crow, but when Jon asked him why he deserted, The Halfhand gave him an evasive explanation about his blood.

So, here’s the thing. Mance, Qhorin, and Benjen planned this whole thing. The Watch was forced to leave the Wall because they realized what was going on and why, but they had no proof.

Each of them parallels one of the three identifiable heroes in the vows and one of the elements that Jon found in the “treasure”.

Benjen’s disappearance forced the ranging party, particularly after Qhorin couldn’t find him, and Jon was delivered to Mance. Why? To find the proof.

He had never told anyone of the dream, and he did not understand why he was telling Sam now, yet somehow it felt good to talk of it. "Even the ravens are gone from the rookery, and the stables are full of bones. That always scares me. I start to run then, throwing open doors, climbing the tower three steps at a time, screaming for someone, for anyone. And then I find myself in front of the door to the crypts. It's black inside, and I can see the steps spiraling down. Somehow I know I have to go down there, but I don't want to. I'm afraid of what might be waiting for me. The old Kings of Winter are down there, sitting on their thrones with stone wolves at their feet and iron swords across their laps, but it's not them I'm afraid of. I scream that I'm not a Stark, that this isn't my place, but it's no good, I have to go anyway, so I start down, feeling the walls as I descend, with no torch to light the way. It gets darker and darker, until I want to scream." He stopped, frowning, embarrassed. "That's when I always wake." Jon IV - AGoT

Jon’s “nightmare of the crypt” is his mission beyond the Wall. The ‘gone raven’ is Mance (he wears a helm with raven wings), the stables full of bones stand for the missing Benjen, and the “torch” is Qhorin.

The idea of not fearing “The Old Kings of Winter” explains the whole mission.

Remember that both Bael and the maiden hide in the crypt, and while it’s clear that Jon’s proof of his mother’s identity is in the crypt, the link to his father is much more cryptic, like half of the vows, but it’s also there, in the darkness and the lack of “torch”.

The ranging had a few goals, chief among them “testing” what would happen if Jon crossed the Wall. Not one attack happens when he’s with the wildlings, no Others, no wights, nothing.

But Ned’s family starts to fall as flies.

The Watch also “falls” the brothers are attacked around the time that Jon gets to Mance’s camp, and all the wildlings see what happened to them when they get to the Fist; Mance makes sure of that.

He made sure they saw how Jon was one of them. That realization explains why Ygritte tells him Bael’s song when he doesn’t kill her.

He set out into the dead lands with a sword, a horse, a dog, and a dozen companions. For years he searched, until he despaired of ever finding the children of the forest in their secret cities. One by one his friends died, and his horse, and finally even his dog, and his sword froze so hard the blade snapped when he tried to use it. And the Others smelled the hot blood in him, and came silent on his trail, stalking him with packs of pale white spiders big as hounds—" Bran IV – AGoT

The “dead lands” is the place where the wildlings were waiting for Mance to get “the power” he needed, the idea of losing “the dog” has to do with the reason why Jon goes north instead of deserting, he decided to be loyal to the Watch**.**

The broken sword is related to the fact that Jon spends time with the wildlings, learns about their culture, and even falls in love with Ygritte, but there’s no fighting.

Remember how Will wanted Waymar’s broken sword as proof? He didn’t fight either. Reasonably, the proof of being a hero should be not killing.

The attack on the Fist, however, had nothing to do with the Others, it was wights attacking them, because “they remember”. The Watch had been killing wildlings for generations. That’s a song of ice and fire too.

Does that mean that Mance knows? Of course, he does, we’ll discuss that in the next part when we get to Jon’s magical proof, but first, let’s find Benjen.

The Night Walker

Unlike many other characters whose deaths are confirmed or clearly hinted at, Benjen’s fate has remained unresolved since AGoT.

His disappearance seems to parallel the fate of another mysterious figure who ventured into the unknown, the legendary Last Hero.

Considering how that hero goes looking for magic and how Jon finds the “magic weapons” while looking for his uncle, the parallels are promising.

Jon frequently thinks about him, and his name keeps coming up reminding us of his unresolved fate. That tendency to bring up Benjen at crucial points might be a way of foreshadowing his eventual return or revealing his true fate.

There are three key moments in which his name comes up, that I believe are crucial to solving his mystery. The first is when Jon is allegedly deserting the Watch (when he meets Mance), the second is when he’s trying to find out if the Others are what he believes they are, a weapon that judges behavior, and finally, shortly before the bastard’s letter arrives.

This is the first time that his name comes up in what seems to be a key moment since the most reasonable explanation is that either the wildlings or the Others killed Benjen.

When your father learned the king was coming, he sent word to his brother Benjen on the Wall, so he might come down for the feast. There is more commerce between the black brothers and the free folk than you know, and soon enough word came to my ears as well. It was too choice a chance to resist. Your uncle did not know me by sight, so I had no fear from that quarter, and I did not think your father was like to remember a young crow he’d met briefly years before.” Jon I – A Storm of Swords

While I can believe in the commerce, I find it a bit harder to believe that they never met since Mance was supposed to be the best ranger in the Watch and he allegedly was still a brother when Jon was a boy, which wasn’t that long ago. I mean, Jon instantly recognized Qhorin when he saw him because the man “was half a legend”.

Of course, we don’t know exactly when (or why) Benjen joined the Watch, but I think there’s a good hint about the why:

Jon felt anger rise inside him. "I'm not your son!" Benjen Stark stood up. "More's the pity." He put a hand on Jon's shoulder. "Come back to me after you've fathered a few bastards of your own, and we'll see how you feel." Jon I - AGoT

While the quote above seems to imply that Benjen fathered “a few bastards”, I think that’s not the case, but the “bastard” might have been the reason he left Winterfell when he “saw” something when Ned came back from the war, particularly since Catelyn thinks how Ned called Jon “son” for “all the north to see”.

I believe Benjen’s reasons are implied when Jon finds Ghost:

"He must have crawled away from the others," Jon said. "Or been driven away," their father said, looking at the sixth pup. His fur was white, where the rest of the litter was grey. His eyes were as red as the blood of the ragged man who had died that morning. Bran thought it curious that this pup alone would have opened his eyes while the others were still blind. "An albino," Theon Greyjoy said with wry amusement. "This one will die even faster than the others." Bran I - AGoT

Basically, Benjen realized something was wrong when Ned came home with the bastard; and particularly when he saw Robb’s eyes.

The second key moment when Jon thinks of his uncle, he’s expecting signs:

Not for the first time, or the last, Jon Snow found himself wondering what had become of Benjen Stark. Perhaps the rangers will come upon some sign of them, he told himself, never truly believing it.” Jon VI – ADwD

The last time that Jon thinks of Benjen, curiously, is concerning the idea that The Night’s Watch takes no part:

The Night’s Watch took no part in the quarrels of the realm; some would say he had already given Stannis too much help. Behead this fool, and they will claim I am killing northmen to give their lands to wildlings. Release him, and he will do his best to rip apart all I’ve done with Lady Alys and the Magnar. Jon wondered what his father would do, how his uncle might deal with this. But Eddard Stark was dead, Benjen Stark lost in the frozen wilds beyond the Wall. You know nothing, Jon Snow.” Jon X – ADwD

That “you know nothing” seems to be about his idea that Benjen is still lost, which is hard to believe, he’s either alive somewhere or dead, but not lost.

Now, the point is his idea of the Watch taking no part and “the signs” he was expecting the rangers would find because he found all the signs in the bundle beyond the Wall.

So, to clarify the last two mysteries, let’s find Benjen’s whereabouts and then The Others’ identity.

The Ghost in Winterfell

During the events of ADwD in Winterfell, where Mance is posing as the singer Abel, Theon gets face-to-face with a nameless hooded man. They have a short but very interesting exchange:

Outside the snow was coming down so heavily that Theon could not see more than three feet ahead of him. He found himself alone in a white wilderness, walls of snow looming up to either side of him chest high. When he raised his head, the snowflakes brushed his cheeks like cold soft kisses. He could hear the sound of music from the hall behind him. A soft song now, and sad. For a moment he felt almost at peace. Farther on, he came upon a man striding in the opposite direction, a hooded cloak flapping behind him. When they found themselves face-to-face their eyes met briefly. The man put a hand on his dagger. “Theon Turncloak. Theon Kinslayer.” “I’m not. I never … I was ironborn.” “False is all you were. How is it you still breathe?” “The gods are not done with me,” Theon answered, wondering if this could be the killer, the night walker who had stuffed Yellow Dick’s cock into his mouth and pushed Roger Ryswell’s groom off the battlements. Oddly, he was not afraid. He pulled the glove from his left hand. “Lord Ramsay is not done with me.” The man looked, and laughed. “I leave you to him, then.” A Ghost in Winterfell – ADwD

I love this passage. Now let’s strip the thing down, as I try to prove to you that the Hooded Man, or “Ghost in Winterfell” is Benjen Stark, and why he’s there instead of being “at his post”.

Let’s start with the landscape, Theon describes “walls of snow looming up”; the idea of a wall or something tall looming isn’t new, in fact, that’s how the Wall is described by Jon:

Jon could see the Wall looming high and dark to the south, a great shadow blocking out the stars.” Jon III – ASoS

During the night that Theon sees him, the snow is falling heavily, yet the hooded man comes “striding”, which indicates three things, one, he’s comfortable moving in the snow, so he must be used to such awful weather, which would clearly be explained if the man is First Ranger.

The word “stride” also suggests long legs, like Benjen’s:

“Benjen Stark straddled the bench with long legs and took the wine cup out of Jon’s hand.” Jon I – AGoT

Just a curiosity here, the night that Ned agrees for Jon to join the Watch, he complains about how Brandon always knew what to do and says he never asked the cup to pass to him. Like I said, Benjen knew what to do, tell Jon and Luwin what they wanted to hear.

Banjen goes missing in AGoT, in that book’s prologue, the boy that the Others kill, Waymar, looks like a Stark (like Jon). One of his companions, Gared, tells him this about ‘the cold’:

“I’ve had the cold in me too, lordling.” Gared pulled back his hood, giving Ser Waymar a good long look at the stumps where his ears had been. “Two ears, three toes, and the little finger off my left hand. I got off light. We found my brother frozen at his watch, with a smile on his face.” Prologue – AGoT

This is how Jon describes his uncle:

His uncle was sharp-featured and gaunt as a mountain crag, but there was always a hint of laughter in his blue-grey eyes. He dressed in black, as befitted a man of the Night’s Watch.” Jon I – AGoT

The way the hooded man walks seems to indicate someone who knows the place, he’s comfortable in the surroundings, explaining the security of the steps that the word “striding” implies.

The mention of the cloak “flapping” is a nice detail considering the man is also “a Crow”.

Of course, when they get eye-to-eye, he fears being recognized, therefore, he goes for the dagger. I think Theon’s behavior suggests that he was identified, but Theon really believed it was a ghost.

The hooded man is the first person to ever call him “kinslayer”, which is an interesting term considering what Benjen likely knows since he was in Winterfell when Rickard did all those mad choices. Theon had been called turncloak many times before, but never kinslayer, suggesting that the familiar bond that Theon should have felt towards Bran and Rickon was important for the man.

Before we get to the men’s behavior in more detail, I just wanted to point out that calling this ghost “the night walker” seems like a nod to “the white walkers” and Benjen coming back “from the grave”.

Now, if all of the above doesn’t convince you that the hooded man is Benjen, Theon’s behavior should.

Theon was leaving the Great Hall when they crossed paths. The man’s reaction suggests that he hasn’t seen Theon in a while, since he’s genuinely surprised to see he’s still alive.

The surprise also means he wasn’t around during the wedding or even after, since people have been mostly stuck together in the Great Hall, so, he wasn’t in the castle until that night. Another thing worth noting is that he doesn’t call him Reek as everyone else, which again, points to the fact he wasn’t there or even knows that name.

Likely, Theon caught him just entering the castle. Maybe there’s a secret way, maybe he just climbed the walls, I don’t think it matters. What I do know is that the timing of his arrival and the way things speed up inside the castle as soon as he gets there doesn’t appear to be a coincidence.

That’s the night that the horn is heard for the first time, and the drumming begins.

Now, why do I claim that Theon thought the man was really a ghost?

The man put a hand on his dagger. “Theon Turncloak. Theon Kinslayer.” “I’m not. I never … I was ironborn.” “False is all you were. How is it you still breathe?” “The gods are not done with me,” Theon answered, wondering if this could be the killer, the night walker who had stuffed Yellow Dick’s cock into his mouth and pushed Roger Ryswell’s groom off the battlements. Oddly, he was not afraid. He pulled the glove from his left hand. “Lord Ramsay is not done with me.” The man looked, and laughed. “I leave you to him, then.”

The contrast between Theon’s reaction when “the ghost” makes the accusations and the way he reacts when other people call him like that, makes me think that in this instance he felt compelled to make a case in his defense as if this experience was ‘different’.

“Theon Turncloak,” someone said as he passed. Other men turned away at the sight of him. One spat. And why not? He was the traitor who had taken Winterfell by treachery, slain his foster brothers, delivered his own people to be flayed at Moat Cailin, and given his foster sister to Lord Ramsay’s bed. Roose Bolton might make use of him, but true northmen must despise him” The Prince of Winterfell – ADwD

Now, while he defends himself against the kinslaying accusation, he says nothing about being a turncloak, but when the hooded man wonders why he’s still alive, oddly, he shows him his hands as if to prove that the gods were already taking care of the problem as if the gods were vengeful spirits and Ramsey their weapon.

Remember how Qhorin shows his maimed hand when he mentions the gods before delivering Jon to Mance?

Qhorin lifted his maimed, two-fingered hand. "The old gods are still strong beyond the Wall. The gods of the First Men . . . and the Starks." Jon V - ACoK

Moreover, Theon’s thought of how “true northmen must despise him” seems to point to the fact that the Hooded Man is one.

Interestingly, when Lady Dustin asks him to show his hands, he’s embarrassed and offended, which again, seems to imply that a familiar relationship with the ghost, and guilt towards that relationship, justified doing something he doesn’t like doing:

Theon glanced up sharply. “Please, no. I … I …” “Do as she says,” Ser Aenys said. “Show us your hands.” Theon peeled his gloves off and held his hands up for them to see. It is not as if I stand before them naked. It is not so bad as that.” A Ghost in Winterfell – ADwD

To summarize, many hints point at the Hooded Man being Benjen Stark, and most importantly, to an alliance between him, Qhorin, and Mance to “set the world to rights”.

Your heart is noble, Jon, but learn a lesson here. We cannot set the world to rights. That is not our purpose. The Night's Watch has other wars to fight." Jon III - ACoK

We’ll discuss that pact in the next part as we get to Jon’s last proof of being Ned’s son, how the Wall falls and Bael’s song ending “for the Watch”.

Just a few comments regarding the magic proof that Jon found in the bundle and what he learned later about the Others thanks to that.

The only person that Jon killed beyond the Wall was Qhorin, who insisted he was no lordling. If you recall, the Last Hero had a sword of "dragon steel" which Jon assumes is Valyrian Steel, like the one he used to kill the very brave Halfhand.

Bael's song says that the young lord kills his father because he doesn't recognize him, which might be related to the fact that the man is coming to kill him, and both wildlings and Starks believe that kinslaying is an awful crime, which relates Theon's maimed hand with Qhorin's.

I believe that Qhorin was truly unique in the sense that he was not only born a wildling, but he joined the Watch out of a vocation, like Waymar "the lordling". The idea that he was unkillable, "half a legend" and only died because Jon had "a magic sword" and a direwolf, is linked to the Old Kings of Winter and Waymar's failure.

You see, both the vows and Bael's song are, as we saw, only half true, Jon is half a Stark but not because he was Ned's son but Lyanna's; and while his father is "Bael" that doesn't mean he's a wildling, he's "a dragon". But **the sword, the "power" doesn’t belong to either of them, **that's a lie, the magic always belonged to "the vengeful spirits of the north."

We assume that the eight wildlings that Waymar was chasing had committed a crime because why else would Waymar consider that not killing them was "a failure"? Since he says that it wasn't "that cold" to die from that, because the Wall "was weeping" the weeks prior, we assume that either they were faking, Will lied or something else, The Others, killed them.

Even when Will tells how they were all scattered and there was no fire burning, we refuse to see the evidence, they were scared to death. They don't light a fire for the same reason that Waymar doesn't want Gared to start one, "the enemies in the woods".

A fire would have meant being found; instead of staying all together to stay warm, they scatter to see the rangers coming. They just died from the cold.

That's what an Other is, the vengeful spirit of an innocent person who died of fear.

The Other that Sam kills didn't steal the horse of a dead brother as Small Paul accused him of, he was the dead brother, riding his own dead horse.

Summary:

The Others are the embodiment of Lightbringer, bringing light through sacrifice. They are connected to the prophecy and the legendary weapon used against the darkness.

Who are they? Innocent people, like Nissa Nissa. The ones we see in AGoT are the dead wildlings the rangers were looking for and clearly, committed no crime, which ties once again the Others to Lyanna. The Other that Sam kills was just a sworn brother who was likely sent to the Wall for a crime he didn’t commit.

Jon's mission beyond the Wall, the mystery of Benjen Stark's disappearance, and the discovery of the bundle of weapons are linked. What they have in common is hidden heroes. Mance, Qhorin, and Benjen were trying to prove what was going on and why, and of course, saving the wildlings because they were innocent.

Jon's discovery of the horn, dragonglass, and a black cloak at the Fist of the First Men is significant, symbolizing ancient powers tied to his true lineage: dragons, first men, and the promise.

Benjen Stark is the mysterious "Ghost in Winterfell," working in secret to fulfill a greater purpose related to Jon and the larger struggle against the Others, what Mormont called “set the world to rights”.

The prologue of AGoT is basically a microcosm of the series' themes, particularly the connection between fear, the Others, and the idea of sacrifices and kinslaying, a summary of the song of ice and fire and the Game of Thrones, were the innocents (the wildlings that die) are always the ones who suffer when the lords play their games.

Introduction

Rhaegar had been a believer in the story of the prince who was promised since he was a boy, and his research eventually led him to believe that he would need to have three children. We see this in Dany’s vision in the house of the Undying. He had already had two children with Elia Martell, first Rhaenys and then Aegon. It seems like Rhaegar not only believed that his son would be the prince who was promised, he was trying to collect the set and replicate Aegon the conquer and his two sister wives. There’s only one missing by the beginning of 281…Rhaegar and Lyanna had a daughter, and her name is Visenya.

(I should note that I am not arguing that this *is* where the third dragon rider will come from, but only that it is *plausible* under the timeline. I’m aware that there isn’t enough evidence to make an airtight case. That being said, begin folding your tinfoil hats now.)

Robert’s Rebellion

I had the distinct impression reading ASOIAF that the timeline went something like this:

1. Rhaegar and Lyanna meet at Harrenhal
2. Rhaegar runs away with/elopes with/kidnaps Lyanna
3. Lyanna quickly falls pregnant with Jon Snow
4. All hell breaks loose
5. Nine months later Ned Stark reaches the Tower of Joy just in time for his sister to die in childbed

I think this is a common impression, and its reenforced by lots of characters running around claiming that the rebellion lasted ‘the better part of a year’. There is one major problem with this and it’s that it demonstrably isn’t true. Robert’s Rebellion lasted not quite a year only if you are really pedantic about how you’re counting. Lyanna is missing for at absolute minimum over a year, and probably closer to two years, opening up the possibility that two children were born. Don’t believe me? Let’s start counting:

Timeline

The Year of the False Spring—281

~November—The Tourney at Harrenhal

We don’t know exactly what month the tourney was held but we know it is at the very tail end of 281 in the brief warm period that lasted two months. I'll be using our month names for clarity. Winter had fully returned by the last day of the year.

The Beginnings of the Rebellion—282

-January 14—Rhaegar left King’s Landing by this point

~Late January—Rhaegar and Lyanna disappear

We don’t know exactly when this happens but King’s Landing and Harrenhal are a bit less than two weeks ride apart. It is actually remarkable how consistent travel times are described to be in AGOT. It seems to take about two weeks for parties to ride 100 leagues, or 21 miles a day.

~Late February—Brandon and Rickard Stark arrive at King’s Landing.

~Early March—Aerys Targaryen burns the Starks and calls for heads of Robert and Ned. Jon Arryn refuses to turn over his wards/banners are called.

~Early April—Jon Arryn then has to call his banners, march to Gulltown, and take it before Robert can make for Storm’s End. Ned has to go over the mountains and sail to Whiteharbor to call his banners.

~Mid April—Ned and Robert reach their respective lands and call the banners.

~Mid May—Baratheon Army Marches for the Battle of Summerhall, and Stark Army  starts marching south.

~Late May—Battle of Ashford.

~Early June—Tyrell forces march to Storm’s End to begin the siege. Jon is conceived.

~Mid June—Battle of the Bells and Riverrun wedding.

~End June—Robb conceived.

This is frankly a barely believable timeline. It assumes everything happens as fast as possible, with no time for missteps, negotiations, supplies or anything else. It also sets the speed for armies as the same as the speed for any other mounted parties, which I find unlikely. Going forward we can start estimating dates for the latter part of the war more accurately, based on three pregnancies, (Jon, Robb, and Dany) as well as the Siege of Storm’s End. You’ll note that events seem to slow down by a lot. I suspect that the Battle of The Bells in fact took place in late 282, think October or November rather than June. From the Battle of the Bells to the Trident was about six months rather than the battle every few weeks the minimum possible timeline gives for the beginning of the war.

The End of the Rebellion—283

~Early January—Battle of the Trident. First battle of 283, can’t be any earlier than Jan 1.

~Mid January—Rhaella and Viserys flee to Dragonstone, Dany conceived. 

~Late January—Sack of King’s Landing

~Mid February—Siege of Storm’s End is Broken. This puts the siege at eight months long. Barely enough to be referred to as “better part of a year”.

~Early March—The Tower of Joy and Jon is born.

~Late March to April—By the time Robb Stark is born nine months later Catlyn is still at Riverrun and the war still seems to be going on.

~Mid October—Danny born on Dragonstone, and Stannis takes the fortress.

So Lyanna is missing for at BARE MINIMUM 14 months. More likely she was gone eighteen months to almost two years. This is enough time for two children to be born, especially as we know that Lyanna got into trouble at the end of her pregnancy with Jon. He may have been a few weeks early. But I don’t think the timeline is even this tight…

I’m pretty sure I’ve read all the theories on who is going to ride a dragon and how the Dragons are going to be used to end the long night but what about the Direwolves what’s their future role in the story?

Let’s say hypothetically that the fAegon theory is true and Aegon isn’t actually the Targaryen heir to the throne, but is instead a Blackfyre (or some other type of bastard).

How will it be revealed? Who will find out? How will it affect Dany’s quest to regain the throne? Will it even matter?

I think that it would be particularly interesting to see how characters such as Stannis, JonCon, and Littlefinger react.

Comet would pass a planet quickly, not be visible for days or weeks. And how is it visible night snd day? Is it just from a lack of knowledge on Georges side or is it something else? Or am I the fool?

The kid actually gives me the creeps, what’s up with him and shaggydog in the crypts or the wolfswoods. Like everytime he pulls up on Bran the whole vibe gets eerie, I feel like even Bran and Hodor get uncomfortable

What theories that are thought of as guaranteed do you beleive as wrong?

My personal favorite is from Tywinn to Tyrion before his end. “Wherever whores go.” This line encapsulates their relationship dynamic as well as the arrogance and pride that consumes all of Tywinn’s brood. The confidence with which it is delivered is astounding considering the situation.

Tell me your favorite character who currently haunts the living with their trademark phrase.

If the prince or princess of dragonstone is supposed to teach young Targaryens how to rule why aren’t the crown lands sworn to them?! Seems like an empty honor to me

I’m wondering why people think this, it makes no sense to me. the whole point of legitimatizing jon is the heir has to be a stark, and cats decisions have done nothing but hinder Robb. He probably feels like his war would’ve went better if she’d gone home to winterfell and maybe she could’ve prevented what happened. I think the trap is Robb announcing his will before she has time to change his mind, legitimizing Jon isn’t something she’s going to let go that easily.

Just a thought.. and im not sure its been brought up .. but is it possible that Petyr really resents Cat because of obvious reasons (Brandon;not giving him her favor;never seeing him after he was hurt because of fighting for her; And now she is happily married with children).So he really wants to see harm come to her and her family..

What are your favorite insignificant lines or quotes that might make you laugh or think and ponder or just make you say “Wow! That’s deep” I crack up evertime in Dance when Gerris Drinkwater says “I would sell my mother for a bit of breeze.” I dont know why but this is hilarious to me .. every.single.time Lol

“Mud,” said Tyrion, “and a few dead things no one’s bothered to bury. Before we can open the port again, the Blackwater’s going to have to be dredged, the sunken ships broken up or raised. Three-quarters of the quays need repair, and some may have to be torn down and rebuilt. The entire fish market is gone, and both the River Gate and the King’s Gate are splintered from the battering Stannis gave them and should be replaced. I shudder to think of the cost.” If you do shit gold, Father, find a privy and get busy, he wanted to say, but he knew better.

“You will find whatever gold is required.”

“Will I? Where? The treasury is empty, I’ve told you that. We’re not done paying the alchemists for all that wildfire, or the smiths for my chain, and Cersei’s pledged the crown to pay half the costs of Joffs wedding - seventy-seven bloody courses, a thousand guests, a pie full of doves, singers, jugglers...”

.................................

“As are the crown’s expenses. Robert was as generous with his coin as he was with his cock. Littlefinger borrowed heavily. From you, amongst others. Yes, the incomes are considerable, but they are barely sufficient to cover the usury on Littlefinger’s loans. Will you forgive the throne’s debt to House Lannister?”

“Don’t be absurd.”

“Then perhaps seven courses would suffice. Three hundred guests instead of a thousand. I understand that a marriage can be just as binding without a dancing bear.”

“The Tyrells would think us niggardly. I will have the wedding and the waterfront. If you cannot pay for them, say so, and I shall find a master of coin who can.”

The disgrace of being dismissed after so short a time was not something Tyrion cared to suffer. “I will find your money.”

Howdy! I’m curious what it would take for 3 Meg changes to take place in Westerosi culture:”/society. What would need to happen for a merchant class to emerge, a magma cart type document to be drafted & take hold, and for an early industrialization to take place? Thanks!

In Fire and Blood, Daemon is earlier said to be removed as Master of Coins on the recommendation of Otto Hightower.

Yet after few pages, it is said that Lyman Beesbury is serving "uninterrupted" in the same position since the reign of Jaehaerys. Is this errata? Any idea?

Only taking characters with at least a whole paragraph about then (sorry Anya Weatherwax). But, in such a gritty, awful, grimdark world, what character is the most innocent and normal? Wholesome, even?

A couple options I thought of:

• Podrick (but he did kill someone in battle)

• Jeyne Poole (innocent of any wrongdoing, but not shielded from the horrors of the world—does trauma disqualify them?)

• Aegon V as a child (D&E are complete novellas so he could count there, but summerhall dqs him I think)

• Tommen and Myrcella (haven’t really done anything wrong other than be born bastards)

• Ned Dayne (my answer; he’s never killed anyone and is proud of his little accomplishments like wining a prize at rings like any normal 12-year-old would. He even goes home when Lady Stoneheart gets involved cause he doesn’t want to be a part of that.)

What do y’all think?

I saw a tiktok

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTNK7SRRP/

Which made me think “what if Targs (and the Valyrian dragon lords) are all semi-fire wights.” So they’re not entirely fire wights per se (as dondarrion) but their original family members (the original sheep herders) made a deal with whatever magic (or lord of light/fire god exists) where they could control/leash/bind dragons to only their family members (offspring who share even the tiniest bit of their blood). And in the world of GOT, The lord of fire and the drowned god are basically parasites/viruses just wanting to infect the entire world. So as R’Hllor claims a Valyrian dynasty linked through blood magic, the drowned god makes his way in Westeros (and many other far eastern lands with fish like people) like the Iron born. They could be intrinsically connected to the drowned god since their family has worshipped such a deity for so long.

I was also thinking that when the “long nights” occur, it’s when the lord of light (or just fire magic in general) is weakening (or it’s a third) and the drowned god takes advantage of it. Now with Dany and dragons appearing there’s a stalemate of how each god is going to parasitize the rest of the world. R’hllor using Dondarrion, red priests, Dany (Targs), trying to grasp more and more of the populace, while the drowned god claws at Euron tempting him to steal dragons, drown more people at old town; all to increase the drown gods presence in the world.

I also feel like, they’re not so much gods, they’re more so much invasive magic (like another element if that makes sense [fire and water]) that survive off of actions. And people provide the actions to keep them alive, so they (not in any way human like, as in they have specific goals or plotting) are just existing. They’re not actively saying “hey all Targs are mine and you can have these”, it’s more like a forest fire. Once the fire starts it eats away at anything it can get, just like a flood would too, drowning whatever is in its path til it dries up.

Anyways that’s my 3am rant, what are your thoughts?

If Jeor Mormont hired you as a consultant to find solutions to bring the Watch to what it used to be, what would you suggest?

I just finished the books again and I can’t wait for the clash in the south between the iron born and the redwyne fleet and then the sack. the citadel will probably burn, the center of all knowledge like the library of Alexandria. I wonder if we’ll get a pov of the battle against the fleet or just from Sam receiveing news

Medievel europe had a variety of guilds that controlled crafts, monopolized trades, and exercised significant political power in cities. Why don't these exist in Westeros?

A song of promises and magical proof

Every legendary hero in the story (Azor Ahai, Joramun, and the Last Hero) has magical proof of his identity. Since Aemon believed that Dragons were the proof of Dany being “the one” we are all expecting Jon to get some magical evidence about his origin too.

I’m here to prove that his magical proof was the stabbing.

This theory will go over usurpers, kinslayers, and other “heroes” to get to the magical proof of Jon’s identity and how the prophecy explains the Others.

We’ll examine:

• Rhaegar’s interpretation of the prophecy, how he kept changing his mind, and how that’s related to some key events in Jon’s life as a sworn brother.
• The vows and the stories behind “the promise” to understand the meaning of the Song of Ice and Fire and The Long Night.
• How Bael’s song explains The Others’ return and why they are the song of ice and fire
• How AGoT’s prologue explains everything we need to know about the Others once some “heroic” behaviors in the main story are clarified.
• Why and how Jon’s death proves who he is and why he was willing to leave the Wall never to return, doubting he was breaking any vow.

This won’t be a short thing, since I wanted to be thorough and include as much evidence as I could gather, so I’ll include a summary at the end of each part for a much shorter version.

• In Part 1 - An introduction to identities and magical proof (this part) we'll discusse mysterious identities, usurpers, and kinslayers. We’ll also get to understand why the Others returned and how that’s related to the Starks. We’ll examine Azor Ahai, the KoLT, and Joramun of the wildlings.
• In Part 2 - The Others made no sound: we’ll examine the Others, their nature as the song of ice and fire, and how that’s linked to Jon’s mission beyond the Wall. We’ll also examine two mysteries that apparently are never solved, Benjen’s disappearance and what was the point of the “bundle” with weapons that Jon found near the Fist of the First Men.
• In Part 3 - The Vengeful Spirits: we’ll get to Jon’s proof of his identity and how it ties back to Harrenhal and the legendary heroes.
• In part 4 – They were seven: we’ll see how Ned’s fever dream is half of a song that you can only understand using AGoT’s prologue as the other half and how the dream proves that Jon isn’t a bastard.

PART 1- An introduction to identities and magical proof.

Rhaegar believed that the PTWP had a “song of ice and fire”; no other character in the story seems to know about that song…

…except for every single wildling woman beyond the Wall.

The song of ice and fire is Bael’s song, the story of how the lord is deceived by a person whose only weapon is using a fake name, how the bard steals the maiden to get his proof, and how in the end, the lord and the bard aren’t that different from each other since they both lie to the boy.

But those are three different stories, like the vows.

Bael is a confessed deceiver, and his story has a tragic ending when he returns to Winterfell for some reason that’s never explained. For his son, the ending is much darker since he only gets to learn who he is when he kills his father not recognizing him and watching as his mother falls from a tower.

Of course, when he hears the story, Jon calls Bael a liar. Not only is everything told in that song true, kinslaying included, but it also explains the stories behind the Night’s Watch vows, and why the prince “was promised”.

As we know, the vows answer a very existential question posed by the Black Gate: Who are you? To answer it, and open the door, a brother must recite six statements, three of them start with “I am” which seems to identify the person making the statements.

Ironically, that person is lying.

Those vows are all related to the only thing that Jon “knows” that Ned is his father.

Each of the elements that make one of the lonely kings in the crypt, parallel one of the proofs that Jon has of being what Ned called him, his bastard:

1. The sword: Ned named him “son” for all the north to see.

2. The statue: Jon looks like “a classic” Stark, long face, grey eyes, dark brown hair.

3. The direwolf: he knows he’s “different” since while he has Ned’s blood, he’s not a Stark, but a Snow.

The other vows, the much more cryptic ones are all related to the stories of the heroes who fought the Others: Azor Ahai, Joramun, and the Last Hero.

To get to Jon’s magical proof of his identity, we need to understand how the vows are linked with each other, and how each proof that Jon has of being a Stark relates to the promise and Bael’s song. You must remember that the song starts when Bael “vows” to teach the lord a lesson.

• I am the sword in the darkness >> the light that brings the dawn
• I am the watcher on the walls >> the horn that wakes the sleepers
• I am the fire that burns against the cold >> the shield that guards the realms of men

We’re going to examine a pair of vows at a time to understand how the stories of each of the heroes that they seem to reference are related to the current story and Jon’s identity.

As I said earlier, Bael’s song tells 3 different stories, and each of them is related to one of the heroes who fought the Others:

• The lord offers the bard to name the reward - Azor Ahai
• The bard steals the “winter rose” - Joramun
• Father and son meet in battle - The Last Hero

A. The song of naming the reward

We’ll examine two vows now: “The sword in the darkness” and “The light that brings the dawn”

The first proof that Jon has of his identity is a lie. Ned called him son “for all the north to see”. This is the song of Lord Stark offering the bard to name his reward.

How is that related to Azor Ahai? Well, because this song’s true ‘hero’ is not only a liar, coward, and usurper but also a kinslayer, like Azor Ahai.

When Melisandre gets to the Wall claiming that Stannis is Azor Ahai reborn and using that name interchangeably with “Promised Prince”, Aemon does two things, first, asking “Where is the prince?” and then sending Sam to touch the King’s sword expecting it to be warm.

That means that the prince and Azor Ahai are not the same person, and most importantly, while the prince has magical proof of being who he claims to be, Azor Ahai must steal and kill to have proof.

In the legend, AA gets his fiery sword by stealing his wife’s “courage and strength” and he must kill her to get it. That’s how Dany becomes the mother of dragons, how Ned becomes Jon’s father, and how Stannis becomes ‘the hero reborn’.

The scarier thing about Melisandre signaling Stannis as the reborn hero is that she’s not wrong, Azor Ahai becomes a hero by doing terrible things, and someone did those things before him.

"I looked at that book Maester Aemon left me. The Jade Compendium. The pages that told of Azor Ahai. Lightbringer was his sword. Tempered with his wife's blood if Votar can be believed. Thereafter Lightbringer was never cold to the touch, but warm as Nissa Nissa had been warm. In battle the blade burned fiery hot. Once Azor Ahai fought a monster. When he thrust the sword through the belly of the beast, its blood began to boil. Smoke and steam poured from its mouth, its eyes melted and dribbled down its cheeks, and its body burst into flame." Clydas blinked. "A sword that makes its own heat …" "… would be a fine thing on the Wall." Jon put aside his wine cup and drew on his black moleskin gloves. "A pity that the sword that Stannis wields is cold. I'll be curious to see how his Lightbringer behaves in battle.” Jon III - ADwD

In the story that Aemon wanted Jon to read to warn him against Stannis, you get to see how Azor Ahai kills “the monster” after he gets the proof (the sacrifice) of being “a hero”.

That’s the song of ice (sacrifice) and fire (kinslaying).

When you pay close attention to the dying monster, you realize that every sign of the prophecy is visible when “the monster” dies, which means that Azor Ahai kills the promised prince, becoming the hero of his own song, like Bael.

The irony is that the character that best fits the role of Azor Ahai is Ned, like in the song, he usurps the real father (and mother) and ‘names’ the boy as his son, which is a lie in both stories. So far, we’ve seen two traits he shares with Azor Ahai: he’s a liar and a usurper. But there’s more.

Riding through the rainy night, Ned saw Jon Snow's face in front of him, so like a younger version of his own. If the gods frowned so on bastards, he thought dully, why did they fill men with such lusts? Eddard IX – AGoT

We’ll get back to this paragraph later when we discuss the proof of Jon not being a bastard.

Do you know what’s the funnier thing about the crypt of Winterfell? You would expect that a sword called “Ice” would be frozen, yet it isn’t. It's just a smoke-grey sword that by the name, should be much colder.

Of course, you can name things however you want when you have the power to name them.

Is “Ice” Lightbringer? Well, the legendary Ice was lost so....

The Lightbringer

We know that during the tourney, “the little crannogman” was beaten up by some boys and Lyanna stood up for him scattering them with a tourney sword.

The Reeds tell Bran how he ended up with a wounded pride, which seems to indicate that he was hurt by the boys but, most importantly, by the fact that some skinny girl could defeat the three of them.

The whole scene must have been public enough since Lyanna yelled as she approached, which likely brought some unwanted attention, explaining the entire point of the mystery knight, he wanted to restore his dignity in front of everyone.

Who was the knight? There’s enough proof in the text to conclude it was Ned.

First, because he demanded honor, second because the hero seems to have been insecure, he wasn’t sure he could defeat the three knights, and Ned kept being like that even when he was a grown man, and even after (allegedly) defeating Arthur Dayne in single combat:

That brought a bitter twist to Ned's mouth. "Brandon. Yes. Brandon would know what to do. He always did. It was all meant for Brandon. You, Winterfell, everything. He was born to be a King's Hand and a father to queens. I never asked for this cup to pass to me." Catelyn II – AGoT

The third piece of evidence is that Lyanna yells “Eddard!” in his fever dream when he’s getting ready to fight the three guards, and finally, there’s this small jewel in his first chapter:

"Damn it, Ned," the king complained. "You might at least humor me with a smile." "They say it grows so cold up here in winter that a man's laughter freezes in his throat and chokes him to death," Ned said evenly. "Perhaps that is why the Starks have so little humor." Eddard I – AGoT

Why does it matter who the Knight was? Well, because the king demanded to know who he was believing the man was laughing at him, and no one confessed.

Remember that Bael is called “craven” by the lord and his idea of proving him wrong is using a fake name.

When Ned is forced to sacrifice Lady for a crime she didn’t commit, he makes a weird connection, thinking how Sansa pleaded like Lyanna.

He remembered Rhaegar's infant son, the red ruin of his skull, and the way the king had turned away, as he had turned away in Darry's audience hall not so long ago. He could still hear Sansa pleading, as Lyanna had pleaded once.” Eddard IV - AGoT

Why would he link Lyanna to a sacrifice when she allegedly ran from home? Well, because she didn’t, she was sacrificed for a crime she didn’t commit, like Lady.

Ned remembered the moment when all the smiles died, when Prince Rhaegar Targaryen urged his horse past his own wife, the Dornish princess Elia Martell, to lay the queen of beauty's laurel in Lyanna's lap. He could see it still: a crown of winter roses, blue as frost.” Eddard XV - AGoT

You see, Ned remembers the moment “when all the smiles died”, when Rhaegar clearly identifies Lyanna by placing the crown of winter roses on her lap, and that’s because Ned knows something we don’t.

The Reeds story has a happy ending, like Bael’s song. In their story, the prince seems kind of dumb and careless like the lord from the song. The search Aerys’ ordered ends when his son finds the abandoned shield, *he doesn’t seem to care not just about the defiance but his own father’s orders, *even when the man was the king, not just his father.

In the song, the Lord doesn’t seem to search inside his own castle or care about what Bael did to his daughter.

So, apparently, the mystery never gets solved, except it wasn’t much of a mystery, if you just followed the trail, getting to Lyanna was a no-brainer.

Why would the KoLT demand the knights to teach the squires honor? Clearly, the squires had done something, you only needed to ask around to learn what that was, and worse, find out how “the she-wolf” came yelling and started to beat them.

"Enough!" the king roared, rising from his seat, his voice thick with irritation. Silence fell. He glowered at Arya through his thick beard. "Now, child, you will tell me what happened. Tell it all, and tell it true. It is a great crime to lie to a king." Eddard III - AGoT

How is this related to Lyanna and Azor Ahai’s sacrifice?

Lyanna ends up in the south months after the tourney ended and we are expected to believe that she went there alone and undetected; that means accepting not only that Rickard was an awful father, but also the most incompetent.

Not only there’s a huge distance between Winterfell and the last place she’s seen, but there are tons of places in between that could have done what Lord Stark does in the song, search for the missing maiden.

But no one goes looking for her and the best explanation is that she was “sacrificed” by her father.

If Rhaegar wanted her for whatever reason (we’ll get to the likeliest reason later), he had an easy way to get her, tell Rickard he knew that all his children were involved in the defiance against the king.

He could either lose her or lose them all. Rickard chose her.

The thing is, he was a proud man too, he sent Brandon after the prince. When his son is arrested, he goes to King’s Landing demanding a trial by combat expecting to personally kill Rhaegar for his defiance.

He never expected Aerys to name “Fire” as his champion of course, but that’s part of another song we’ll examine later.

So, to summarize, like the ignorant young lord who becomes a kinslayer not recognizing his father, Ned became one by not confessing he was the “rebel knight” who the king thought was laughing at him. Brandon’s death is the direct consequence of that silence.

Therefore, and since Lyanna is seen beating the squires, Rhaegar crowns her with the winter roses which isn't a romantic gesture, but proof of the deception, like in the song.

The point of Bael using the name “Sygerrik”, (which means deceiver), to prove he’s not a coward who “prays on the weak” is the deception, he proves to be what the lord called him when he names the reward. When he asks for a flower that only grows in the winter garden, meaning it’s a rare thing, like true bravery, he proves to be ‘praying on the weak’.

The point of the crowning was to get the man who demanded honor to be honorable, instead of allowing the prince to “pray on the weak” by accusing Lyanna.

In Ned’s fever dream, Lyanna yells his name while getting herself rid of those damned flowers. She’s calling him a liar and craven, explaining why we never get to see the fight unfold.

Since Ned became the “hero” who called Jon “son” by being a liar, coward, usurper, and kinslayer, we can understand why Melisandre believes that Stannis is “Azor Ahai reborn” since her chosen one did the same things that Ned did.

The song of screaming cold and bloody vengeance

We’ll examine the second pair of vows: “I am the watcher on the Walls” and “the horn that wakes the sleepers”.

Jon’s second proof of being Ned’s son is looking like one of the Starks from the crypt.

Before we get to the looks, I wanted to point out something that I never realized until I started writing this theory, and it’s important to understand the overall story.

Rhaegar changed his mind about the prince’s identity on three different occasions, explaining why Aemon told Sam that dragons are “changeable as flame”. Each of those changes is related to one of the “identity vows” and linked to one of the main cultures in the story: Dragonriders, Wildlings, and First Men, through the heroes that each vow identifies.

The first change is his announcement that he needed to be a warrior, which is related to “the sword in the darkness” that’s when he believed he was the prince.

The second change is his idea that his unborn baby had to be the one since he believed the “bleeding star” had to be a comet, a herald, as Melisandre calls it. That’s related to “the watcher” and the story we’re about to examine, of two kings fighting each other and how that ends when Joramun arrives with his Horn of Winter.

The last change happens in the tourney when he gets the notion of the song of ice and fire and the three heads, but we’ll examine that when we get to the last two vows as we discuss “The Last Hero”.

Now, to understand why Jon’s look is important, we’ll go over the legend of the Night’s King.

"No," Jon Snow said quietly. "It was not courage. This one was dead of fear. You could see it in his eyes, Stark." Jon's eyes were a grey so dark they seemed almost black, but there was little they did not see.” Bran I - AGoT

The power of the Horn of Winter is never clearly explained in the story, and in fact, it seems to have two different powers both related to the story of the KoLt and what Jon told in the quote above about the deserter.

Jon believes the horn can “wake giants” which is related to being “dead of fear”, while Mance tells him he could use the horn to bring the Wall down, and that’s about the dark eyes that see more than it seems.

In this part, we’ll focus on the power to bring down things. As a reminder, this is the part of the song when Bael and the maiden hide “with the dead”, the song of the bard getting his vengeance.

Three different women seem to illustrate the horn’s power to bring down things: the corpse queen with her cold blue eyes, the maiden from Bael’s song who falls from the tower after the kinslaying, and Lyanna who yells “Eddard” when the fight in the tower of Joy is about to start.

"No," Ned said with sadness in his voice. "Now it ends." As they came together in a rush of steel and shadow, he could hear Lyanna screaming. "Eddard!" she called. A storm of rose petals blew across a blood-streaked sky, as blue as the eyes of death.” Eddard X – AGoT

Since Ned connects “the blue eyes of death” when she screams (and she dies soon after that), the corpse queen had blue eyes and the maiden from the song is identified, like Lyanna, with winter roses, it seems clear that the blue eyes are connected to “the falling”.

Here’s the thing. Lyanna was signaled in the tourney so the KoLT would come forward, as Rhaegar realized it had to be one of her siblings; later she was chosen by her father for “the sacrifice” that the prince demanded, of course, none of that would have happened if Ned confessed, which he never did, likely because like Gared the deserter, he was dead of fear.

Why does it matter? Well, no kinslaying would have happened had Ned told the truth, instead, Brandon would have married instead of being sent to die by his mad father.

That had magical consequences, like in Bael’s song, where the maiden’s death seems to be the magical retribution for never telling the truth to the boy. Had he known his father’s identity, he wouldn’t have killed him.

In the legend, the Stark and the NK are fighting each other until Joramun makes his appearance with the Horn of Winter and suddenly the pretender just dies or disappears or whatever, which seems to match Mance’s belief that the horn ‘brings down’ things. But how?

After his fall, when it was found he had been sacrificing to the Others, all records of Night's King had been destroyed, his very name forbidden.” Bran IV – AsoS

When you consider the sacrifices to “the Others” and how as a punishment his name is forbidden, the falling seems to be explained by a “vengeful spirit” that retaliates in kind, like an eye for an eye sort of thing, since the name of the Stark in the legend is also unknown, even when they have been building statues for centuries precisely, to remember the names of the kings.

The crowning as we saw, wasn’t about romance but rather about getting the man to come forward and identify himself, the winter roses identify the kinslayer, not a woman. That explains why Lyanna gets rid of the flowers when she yells Ned’s name, she’s accusing him.

The retaliating magic seems to be implied in Bael’s song too, explaining why the vow mentions “the walls” in the plural, like a mirrored vengeance between those characters, they are both liars and they both die.

That’s exactly what’s happening.

When Ned, the same person who demanded honor from “the others”, decided first to keep silent and then “bring down the tower of Joy” and do what the Stark does in the legend, delete every record of what truly happened, he also erased part of Jon’s story, a huge part actually.

You see, he and Lyanna were kin.

"He's of my village. You know nothing, Jon Snow. A true man steals a woman from afar, t' strengthen the clan. Women who bed brothers or fathers or clan kin offend the gods, and are cursed with weak and sickly children. Even monsters." Jon III - ASoS

A “true man” doesn’t steal his own sister, does he? Nor does he allow her to be accused of a crime she didn’t commit.

"Lady wasn't there," Arya shouted angrily. "You leave her alone!" Eddard III - AGoT

Each of Ned’s “blue-eyed” children is proof of the “corpse queen”, or better put, of the other kinslaying.

Like the defiant couple in the legend, the “downfall” of each of Ned’s family members perfectly matches what happened to Rhaegar’s family, because they were also Ned’s kin.**

That’s one of the powers of “the horn of winter”.

"Craster is his own man. He has sworn us no vows. Nor is he subject to our laws. Your heart is noble, Jon, but learn a lesson here. We cannot set the world to rights. That is not our purpose. The Night's Watch has other wars to fight." Jon III - ACoK

Think about the way that each member of Rhaegar’s family died and what happened to each blue-eyed Stark.

· Rhaegar was murdered and usurped, like Robb.

· Aegon was smashed against a wall; Bran was pushed from one.

· Rhaenys was hiding when she was murdered. Sansa is hiding from the same people who murdered Rhaenys.

· Rickon is presumed dead, given his age and how much that poor kid suffered, he’ll likely forget that Osha isn’t truly his mother, like Ned seemed to have forgotten everything.

The Horn is the vengeful spirit from the north that punishes kinslaying, lies, and cowardice as Bael’s song explains and the Night’s King legend implies.

When the kid kills the father in the song, the lying mother dies, not the kid, her death is a magical retribution for not telling the truth that could have prevented the killing.

He wondered what Tyrion would have made of the fat boy. Most men would rather deny a hard truth than face it, the dwarf had told him, grinning. The world was full of cravens who pretended to be heroes; it took a queer sort of courage to admit to cowardice as Samwell Tarly had.” Jon IV - AGoT

In the legend, the sacrifices start after 13 years, likely when the LC children started dying, “one by one” like the Last Hero’s companions.

The horn that wakes the sleepers

The second power of the Horn is “waking giants”. This side of the power, which as I said earlier had to do with Jon’s comment of the deserter being “dead of fear”, seems to be oddly related to Melisandre’s belief that Azor Ahai is supposed to “wake dragons from stone”.

This vow is also connected to the maidens.

We saw earlier how Lyanna yells “Eddard!” when the fight is about to happen in the fever dream, but there seems to be no connection between the maiden in Bael’s song and the Others, except when you consider the “awakening” moment in the song.

When Lord Stark hears a baby crying, he follows the sound and finds the sleeping maiden and the babe.

While in the crypt, Ned hears Lyanna, which shouldn’t happen, since the point of the statues and their swords is to “keep the vengeful spirits” resting.

If Ned heard Lyanna, that meant he thought something was keeping her from resting and Ned knew what that was, since she always repeated the same thing “Promise me”.

Remember what Azor Ahai does in the legend to the promised prince? Knowing how Lyanna despised bullies, what do you think could have possibly made her “vengeful spirit” restless?

He was at the door when she called out to him. "Jon," she said. He should have kept going, but she had never called him by his name before. He turned to find her looking at his face, as if she were seeing it for the first time. "Yes?" he said. "It should have been you," she told him. Then she turned back to Bran and began to weep, her whole body shaking with the sobs. Jon had never seen her cry before.” Jon II - AGoT

During the tourney, Rhaegar does something curious that really should make us pause. Not only does he crown Lyanna with winter roses, which is an odd enough choice considering that Bael’s song seems to be an old song, but he puts the flowers on her lap where the kings hold their “magic swords”.

What’s the link between the swords and the roses? The smell.

The forester sucked on his spoon a moment. He had taken out his teeth. His face was leathery and wrinkled, his hands gnarled as old roots. "Seems to me like it smells . . . well . . . cold." "Your head's as wooden as your teeth," Hake told him. "There's no smell to cold." There is, thought Jon, remembering the night in the Lord Commander's chambers. It smells like death.” Jon IV- ACoK

The “night in the Lord Commander’s chambers” Jon was shaking in fear. When Lyanna is dying, Ned mentions the smell of “blood and roses” and her fear:

He could hear her still at times. Promise me, she had cried, in a room that smelled of blood and roses. Promise me, Ned. The fever had taken her strength and her voice had been faint as a whisper, but when he gave her his word, the fear had gone out of his sister's eyes.” Eddard I - AGoT

It turns out that the smell of fear ‘wakes’ the Others; they are “vengeful spirits” too, but they kill bullies, like Waymar Royce and Catelyn Stark.

The Others seem to show up to help frightened sworn brothers of the Night’s Watch, like Will.

The second time we saw an Other appear was when the very frightened Sam was trying to get to Craster’s Keep. I believe that the Others are trying to teach the lesson that Ned taught Arya when he found out she had a sword:

" In winter, we must protect one another, keep each other warm, share our strengths. So if you must hate, Arya, hate those who would truly do us harm.” Arya II – AGoT

That’s what you must do with the people you love, protect them (the sword), give them warmth (the fire), and share your strength (the watcher).

The lesson about winter explains the way the Others look and act, they are what the statues in the crypt stand for, “werewolves” with cold swords, the promise that winter is coming. In fact, the idea of “waking giants” is implied when the boys find the direwolves:

"It's no freak," Jon said calmly. "That's a direwolf. They grow larger than the other kind." Bran I - AGoT

The point is that all those cold maidens make you suspect that Lyanna’s fear might have been Ned’s projection, his shadow on the wall, and not the truth of how she died, crying and begging like Sansa when he did something he knew was wrong for a third time.

"Lord Eddard," Lyanna called again. "I promise," he whispered. "Lya, I promise …" Eddard X – AGoT

It wasn’t her begging and whispering on her deathbed, it was him.

Now, to summarize this song. “Joramun” is a power related to sacrifices and kinslaying; the Horn is a weapon of retribution.

Joramun, Lightbringer, and Ice are three ways of naming the same power: the song of ice and fire.

Since Bael “vowed” to teach a lesson to the lord, and he’s the deceiving character, we have to assume that Jon wasn’t supposed to be named Ned’s bastard or raised in total darkness.

The Others’ being a weapon of retribution against sworn brothers who behave like bullies, seems to indicate that both powers of the Horn are connected, and the point of the magic beyond the Wall is to somehow balance so much darkness; by killing “mean squires” on the other side, the Others are bringing light to this side.

In the next part, we’ll see that the Others are Lightbringer, how they are attracted by the smell of fear, and how that relates to Jon’s nightmare of the crypt and his mission beyond the Wall to find “a power”.

Summary

The "song of ice and fire" is explained by Bael's song, a tale of deception and identity. The story mirrors the vows of the Night’s Watch. The vows that begin with "I am," parallel Jon's belief of his identity, that he's Ned's son, which of course, is a lie.

Each of those vows is linked to the stories of one of the heroes who fought the Others: Azor Ahai, Joramun, and the Last Hero (and their magic weapons). In this part, we examined two of them, AA and Joramun.

Azor Ahai and Ned Stark: Azor Ahai is a hero who gains power through terrible deeds, like Ned. The proof of his promise, and therefore of naming Jon as his son, is being a liar, coward, usurper, and kinslayer, like Azor Ahai.

Lyanna's role is central to this discussion since we are led to understand she was a selfish and spoiled girl who ran from home to avoid her upcoming marriage, and that's simply not true. The crown of winter roses was not a romantic gesture but a proof of deception.

Lyanna was sacrificed for a crime she didn't commit twice.

First, when the real KoLT (Ned) kept silent as she was accused of being "the knight" who was laughing at the king, and the second time, when her father sacrificed her to save his boys from the consequences of “the laugh”. Rhaegar told Rickard that all his children were involved in the defiance so he could either deliver Lyanna or all of them, and her father chose her.

The deception in Bael's story mirrors Ned's actions. Ned, like Bael, deceives others ultimately leading to the kinslaying, as he’s not only guilty of Brandon’s death but Rhaegar’s family too. This connection helps explain why Melisandre sees Stannis as "Azor Ahai reborn," since he embodies the same traits that Ned truly embodied.

The second pair of the vows, "I am the watcher on the Walls" and "the horn that wakes the sleepers" are related to Jon's physical resemblance to the Starks, his second proof of being Ned's son.

That resemblance had nothing special, the issue is Ned’s blue-eyed children, that’s special.

The Horn of Winter is a mysterious power that can do two things: bringing down structures (like the Wall) and awakening "giants." These abilities are tied to themes of fear, vengeance, and retribution.

The first power becomes evident when you consider how each member of Ned’s family's downfall happened, mirroring the way that Rhaegar’s family died. That’s the retribution for the kinslaying, because Ned and Rhaegar were kin.

The second power of the horn is evidenced by Ned’s visit to the crypt in his first chapter, which suggests that Lyanna’s spirit remains restless, which shouldn’t happen, as the point of the statues is for those spirits to rest, so clearly something seems to be wrong.

What’s wrong is that Lyanna despised bullies, and Jon was bullied his entire life by Ned’s own wife. That’s directly related to the Others, since what attracts them is “the smell of fear”. Each time they showed up, there was a sworn brother afraid, first it was Will and then Sam.

Joramun, Lightbringer, and Ice are different names for the same power: the song of ice (sacrifices) and fire (kinslaying).

Follow up to the recent poll.

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What if the attempt on Bran's life was made official instead of being kept a secret? Instead of Catelyn going in secret to the capital, what if they'd just sent a letter to the capital informing Ned that an assassination attempt had been made on Bran's life? It doesn't have to include their belief that the Lannisters were responsible; it would just contain the news that the Warden of the Nrth's son was almost murdered and that Ned is needed back home. News such as this would probably result in him resigning his post as Hand and heading back up North.

Imagine how much trouble could've been avoided if Robb and Catelyn had just done that instead of going to the capital and everything else after that. Ned and the girls would've been on the first ship back home, and Robert would have to find someone else to be Hand.

There's only one wall that's the Wall they're supposed to be watching on these days so why is this part of the Night's Watch oath plural? "The walls" with an "s", instead of just "the wall"?

Night gathers, and now my watch begins.

It shall not end until my death.

I shall take no wife, hold no lands, father no children.

I shall wear no crowns and win no glory.

I shall live and die at my post.

I am the sword in the darkness.

I am the watcher on the walls.

I am the fire that burns against the cold,

the light that brings the dawn, the horn that wakes the sleepers, the shield that guards the realms of men.

I pledge my life and honor to the Night's Watch,

for this night and all the nights to come.

Nothing else in the oath is incorrectly pluralised in that way, and even if it's from the pre-Night's King era (if he ever existed) when the castles on the Wall may have had defenses to the south as well it seems so odd to leave in just for that in-universe reason. It's pretty unlikely that any southern wall was considered as important as THE Wall, enough that they'd be referred to together. Seems like if it's in there it'd be for something more important than that, just from a writing perspective.

Could it be a hint about a different origin for the Night's Watch than has been handed down in legends? Maybe every dwelling might have had someone who acted as a "Night's Watchman" once. The oath has always reminded me a bit of those stories of the old men who walk out into the snow during long winters so their families don't starve tbh. Which is, accounting for the way that stories change as they're passed down through the generations, also kinda the beginning of the legend of the Last Hero. Maybe in the beginning being "the Night's Watch" was just what people told their children before they stepped outside into the cold and never came back.