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Alright so this confuses me alot its said Euron sends Victarion and the main part of the iron fleet to essos to get Dany but in a feast for crows its said Euron has a 1000 ships in Kings Landing Cersei thinks Margery is lying and its not really a 1000 ships so how many ships does Euron actually have when he attacks the shields and how did he get so many since I thought the iron fleet only had a 100 to begin with and they went with VIctarion what am I missing.

Or at least something to counterattack Daenerys Dragons

...escape?

I mean, why did Varys explain to Tyrion how to find his father? Why did he not stop him from going there, or not planting the idea in his head at all? So much could have gone wrong there, right?

I just finished my ASOS re-read, so excuse me if all these questions will be answered later on and I cannot remember at the moment.

I learned about this concept sesquizygotic or "semi-identical" twinning last year and while I'm 99.9999% sure GRRM did not have this in mind whatsoever when writing Jaime and Cersei, I thought it was really cool and explained their near-identical features pre-puberty in a 'biologically factual' way. I know this is a fantasy series and it doesn't matter but this is my headcanon lol.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06_nsL46rEY

Long story short: One oocyte (egg) is fertilised by two different spermatocytes (sperm), hypothetically forming a tri-spindle apparatus, of which two sets of genetic codes survive and form twins that are more identical than non-identical twins but less identical than identical twins. I.e. semi-identical twins. They are more identical than non-identical twins bc the maternal genome is 100% identical but the paternal is between 0-50% identical, making the twins genome identical in somewhere between 50% (non-identical siblings) to 100% (identical twins).

Idk. Maybe this will be downvoted to hell, I just thought it was nerdy and cool.

If… and obviously a big IF, George finished the series proper and moved onto other things (F&B, Dunk and Egg etc) do you think we could see a release of chapters from previous books (thinking mainly of Feast/Dance, and the later books if they are published) that had to be cut due to page limits?

I remember George mentioning a cool Tyrion chapter he wrote for Dance which got cut, and given the size he predicts for his TWOW manuscript doubtless a lot more will be cut.

Do you think we could ever see these unreleased chapters as accompaniments to the actual books?

When you are raised as an ice wight, you stop rotting (ice preserves), but none of your injuries heal, unlike with fire wights whose body somewhat puts itself back together. So could the reason Coldhands hides his face be that, instead of being Benjen or someone Bran would recognize, he's just terrifying to look at? Missing lips and nose, maybe? And wanted to spare Bran and company the sight?

Background

Partially based on Piers Gaveston, and I rarely see it discussed, but Ser Loras Tyrell is one of the best fighters alive. It is as simple as that. I hope this doesn't descend into who is the best because as GRRM has stated:

GRRM: I get fans who ask me, "Who is the best warrior, or who would win in a sword fight between this character or this character?" My answer is always is that it depends on the day. You have to use sports as an analogy. Yes, you can say Johnny Unitas was a great quarterback but it doesn't mean he won every time. He lost some games. The greatest boxers lost occasionally. Even Man o' War was defeated once in a horse race. So we can rank these swordsman and we can rank the knights and we can say who is good or who is bad but still an upset is possible. Of course with knights, if you get upset, you may die or have a limb hacked off. They are playing a sport that is very dangerous. -SSM, SI.com Podcast: 6 Mar 2013

I just want a little more respect to be given to how good Ser Loras is.

GRRM's Thoughts

GRRM has stated that Ser Loras is one of the best current fighters:

He told me that he was sort of fed up when people wrote to him asking "who's the strongest fighter? Who's the best? Etc." He explained to me that there are some very strong fighters, he only mentioned 3: the two Cleganes and Loras.... ;) however, he could not conceive how people could wonder who was the best in a fight, battle or duel.... it just depends in the day, and everything... a fight is part strength and skill, but outside factors weigh much more that those two. -SSM, A Dinner with GRRM: 2 July 2001

and:

SI.com: The athlete atop our athlete power list is LeBron James. Who is the equivalent of LeBron in your universe?

Martin: Well, LeBron James is the greatest active basketball player I suppose so the parallel in Westeros would be who is the greatest active swordsman. You can make a case for Jaime Lannister. You can make a case for The Hound or his brother Ser Gregor [Clegane] or Ser Loras [Tyrell], the Knight of Flowers. These are all first class Knights. Or even Ser Barristan The Bold [Sir Barristan Selmy]. These are all guys who are top at their own particular sport, which is swordsmanship and jousting, and all of the combat skills that attend knighthood. -SSM, SI.com Podcast: 6 Mar 2013

Not Just a "Tourney Knight"

While there are plenty "knights of summer", Ser Loras is blooded:

"There are those who say Ser Loras is better than Leo Longthorn ever was," said Tyrion.

"Renly's little rose? I doubt that."

"Doubt it all you wish," said Tyrion, "but Ser Loras has defeated many good knights, including my brother Jaime."

"By defeated, you mean unhorsed, in tourney. Tell me who he's slain in battle if you mean to frighten me."

"Ser Robar Royce and Ser Emmon Cuy, for two. And men say he performed prodigious feats of valor on the Blackwater, fighting beside Lord Renly's ghost." -ASOS, Tyrion VI

and:

Question: This has to do with the whole Renly's ghost thing, I admit, but if Loras and Garlan both have an arm-long list of deeds from the battle recited as they enter the hall...

GRRM: The Knight of Flowers fought gloriously on the Blackwater, and I have no doubt that the heralds mentioned that, but his other martial accomplishments were also mentioned, no doubt. -SSM, Lady Olenna and the Tyrells at the Blackwater

Comparison to Garlan

One of the digs people use to put down Ser Loras tends to be the comparison to Garlan that is made not only by GRRM:

SI.com: For you the Starks are heroes, and you told us a couple of months ago that they would be the NFL equivalent of the Giants since the Giants are your team. If we extrapolate this, who is Eli Manning in your universe?█ Martin: Eli Manning would probably be someone like Loras Tyrell, the Knight of Flowers, who has a bigger brother, Lord Garlan Tyrell, who is an even better swordsman than he is (laughs). So you have that brotherhood relationship there.█ -SSM, SI.com Podcast: 6 Mar 2013

but also Ser Loras himself:

“Is that your brother?” Sansa asked.

“It is, my lady,” said Ser Loras. “Garlan often trains against three men, or even four. In battle it is seldom one against one, he says, so he likes to be prepared.”

“He must be very brave.”

“He is a great knight,” Ser Loras replied. “A better sword than me, in truth, though I’m the better lance.” -ASOS, Sansa I

the thing that is not often noted is that Ser Loras' primary weapon is not a sword.

Ser Loras' Weapons of Choice

• Weapon #1 = Lance

We see above Loras state that he is the better lance than Garlan:

“He is a great knight,” Ser Loras replied. “A better sword than me, in truth, though I’m the better lance.” -ASOS, Sansa I

but we also see it elsewhere:

Jousting was three-quarters horsemanship, Jaime had always believed. Ser Loras rode superbly, and handled a lance as if he'd been born holding one . . . which no doubt accounted for his mother's pinched expression. He puts the point just where he means to put it, and seems to have the balance of a cat. Perhaps it was not such a fluke that he unhorsed me. -AFFC, Jaime II

and:

Who do you think our champion will be today? Have you seen Mace Tyrell's boy? The Knight of Flowers, they call him. Now there's a son any man would be proud to own to. Last tourney, he dumped the Kingslayer on his golden rump, you ought to have seen the look on Cersei's face. I laughed till my sides hurt. Renly says he has this sister, a maid of fourteen, lovely as a dawn …" -AGOT, Eddard VII

If interested: Gregor Clegane v. Loras Tyrell

• Weapon #2 = Longaxe

In the melee at Bitterbridge, Ser Loras uses a long axe:

Ser Loras rode a tall white stallion in silver mail, and fought with a long-handled axe. A crest of golden roses ran down the center of his helm.

...

The white horse and the black one wheeled like lovers at a harvest dance, the riders throwing steel in place of kisses. Longaxe flashed and morningstar whirled. Both weapons were blunted, yet still they raised an awful clangor. Shieldless, the blue knight was getting much the worse of it. Ser Loras rained down blows on his head and shoulders, to shouts of "Highgarden!" from the throng. The other gave answer with his morningstar, but whenever the ball came crashing in, Ser Loras interposed his battered green shield, emblazoned with three golden roses. When the longaxe caught the blue knight's hand on the backswing and sent the morningstar flying from his grasp, the crowd screamed like a rutting beast. The Knight of Flowers raised his axe for the final blow. -ACOK, Catelyn II

• Weapon #3 = Morningstar

During the assault on Dragonstone, Ser Loras uses a morningstar:

Loras was the first one through the breach when the ram broke the castle gates. He rode straight into the dragon's mouth, they say, all in white and swinging his morningstar about his head, slaying left and right." -AFFC, Cersei VIII

and:

The king considered that, licking honey off his fingers. "When Ser Loras comes back I'm going to learn to fight with lance and sword and morningstar, the same way he does." -AFFC, Cersei IX

If interested: Ser Loras & the Assault on Dragonstone & GRRM doesn't Kill Major Characters Off-Page

TLDR: I am not claiming he is the best fighter (see GRRM's comments above), but Ser Loras needs to be discussed more in the top tier than he is. Just because his primary weapon of choice isn't a sword doesn't exclude him from being a great fighter. He is an elite horseman, lance and prefers the longaxe/morningstar to the sword.

Hello there, I am in need of your assistance. I am planning to make a round robin tournament between some of the greatest ASOIAF warriors but the first step I need you to help me with is determining who should qualify for the tournament. For this reason, I ask that you rank the top 15 ASOIAF warriors.

Here is a list of the ones who I consider to be the greatest, though I could have forgotten about somebody so feel free to include warriors not in this list in your top 15.

Arthur Dayne

Daemon Blackfyre

Gwayne Corbray

Aemon Targaryen

Barristan Selmy

Jaime Lannister

Robert Baratheon

Cregan Stark

Ryam Redwyne

Rhaegar Targaryen

The Smiling Knight

Garlan Tyrell

Sandor Clegane

Gregor Clegane

Oberyn Martell

Brienne of Tarth

Aegon Targaryen

Quentyn Ball

Aegor Rivers

Loras Tyrell

Syrio Forel

Bronn of the Blackwater

Duncan the Tall

Gerold Hightower

Maelys Blackfyre

Victarion Greyjoy

Smalljon Umber

Greatjon Umber

Andrik The Unsmiling

Strong Belwas

Mance Rayder

Jon Snow

Thoros of Myr

Gerold Dayne

Khal Drogo

Daario Naharis

Anyways, thanks to everyone who wants to participate in this little project of mine. The warriors who most commonly appear in people's top 15 lists will qualify for the upcoming tournament. The tournament will consist of me spinning the wheel every day and making daily fights between the warriors who qualify. In the end I will rank them based on their number of victories in the tournament.

Also, the versions of the warriors which I ask you to rank are the prime versions of every character, so Robert Baratheon and Barristan Selmy are in their primes for this comparison.

It's happened to all of us.

You come across a fascinating post and are just dying to discuss it but the thread is stale or archived. Or you are doing a reread and come across the perfect piece of evidence to that theory you posted months ago. Or you have a theory forming on the tip of your tongue and isn't quite there yet and would love to hash it out with fellow crows.

Now is your time.

You now all have permission to give that old thread the kiss of life, shamelessly plug your own theory you are proud of, or share something that was overlooked or deserves another analysis.

So share that old link or that shiny theory still bouncing around in your head with a fresh TL;DR (to get us to read it) along with anything new you would like to add.

Looking for Shiny Theory Thursday posts from the past? Browse our Shiny Theory Thursday archive!

He knew that Stannis was Robert's heir, but he chose his affection for his daughter who betrayed him. It is beautiful to see that Starks who pride themselves on their honor died without honor.

So what's the worst thing that he did?

I would have gotten rid of the Deux Ex Machina

How do you think Ramsay should die in the books? Flayed alive by Theon? I think his death in the show was one of the few ironically well done things in later seasons (although I hate Sansa’s arc that led to that)

mine are the daynes and yiti i think the connection with great empire of dawn will be a big thing in the long night , dawn might even be lightbringer

I know I'm many years late to questioning this but it recenty hit me when I was playing the GoT conversion mod for CKIII.

Tywin was sentencing Tyrion to death. Alright, well established that he didn't like Tyrion and blamed him for Joanna's death. And since Sansa Stark is a fugitive, there's no function to Tyrion.

Except... There is? With Cercei's children being Baratheon and Jaime being in Kingsguard, Tyrion is the Lannister heir. If Tyrion is dead, I guess secondary Lannisters will continue the line? Like Lancel? But I'm having a hard time thinking Tywin would accept that. It would be better for him to wait until Tyrion has a child, then get rid of him.

I also remember he talked to Jaime, wanting him to quit Kingsguard. But I don't think Kingsguard is something you can quit, that was the way Madking punished Tywin. Does Tywin believe he can get Tommen to dismiss Jaime (can the King to that?) So he becomes Lannister heir again?

Just confused. And I can't remember if these are answered in the show/books.

I've been reading up on theories for Ashara Dayne, and I can't seem to get a consensus. One thing I can say with my own personal certainty, is that Septa Lemore is NOT Ashara Dayne. Her eye color isn't purple, and Ashara is known for her purple eyes. Tyrion wouldn't have missed something like that, especially if he found her attractive.

I also don't believe that she's Jon Snow's mother. Enough people believed she was, and Ned wouldn't have a reason to hide it. What would he gain from hiding that?

We know supposedly that Ashara was "dishonored" by someone at the Tourney at Harrenhal in 281 AC. She was said to have given birth to a stillborn bastard, but that may not be true.

I've heard some people say that Brandon Stark took Ashara's virginity at Harrenhal, but I don't believe that either. Brandon doesn't strike me as the kind of person who would do that honestly. I've also heard Howland Reed may have been with Ashara, but I don't even know how that's possible.

Her death is also very mysterious. She supposedly jumped to her death from a tower into the ocean, but her body was never found. I think she is still alive, but might be hiding out at High Hermitage maybe. Maybe that's why Darkstar is so mysterious. Maybe he's protecting Ashara's secrets.

The best I can figure, is that maybe Lyanna gave birth to twins, one with dark features (Jon) and one with Valyrian features. Ashara faked her death to raise the Valyrian traited one, while Ned took the other. The only flaw I can see in this, is that she wouldn't have to fake her death to do this, since Dayne's have Valyrian traits already.

I'm honestly just very confused about the whole thing. What is the fan consensus on Ashara? Is she dead? Did she have bastard children with Ned Stark? Is she taking care of Jon's brother? Or is she just dead, and I'm reading way too far into it?

Of course, I totally get the 'no marriage and no children' bit. It's a way to cut all ties to Westeros politics, to free the Kingsguards, Maesters and Watchmen from all duties and distraction not related to their role. But it seem like the vow also explicitly forbid sexual relationship as a whole, which just sound extreme for not benefits.

I get why septons, and septa are vowed to chastity, since they are a religious order and chastity is showed to be a virtue for those who worship the Sevens. But there seem to be no real reason for the strict 'no sex' clause for the other orders, beside good PR perhaps? Of course there is an argument to be told that by forbiding all sex together, you simply erase the chance of any unwanted bastards, so it's a precaution measure, but I still find it a bit extreme. Especially when it has been shown that Westeros has relatively efficient way to prevent unwanted birth, Moon tea being an exemple (of course it's not exactly always safe for the mother, but when has Westerosis society ever cared about it's women wellbeing?).

It's also seem doubly silly when you realize just how many members of all three organizatons across the board just seem to completely disregard it and have sexual relationships while barely hidding it. Seriously, half the current Kingsguard broke that vow: Jaime broke it with Cersei, Boros frequently visit prostitutes, Preston Greefield has an affair with a draper's wife.

Same thing goes for the Watchmen, with it being explicitly stated that a lot of them never waste an occasion to visit prostitutes in Mole's town. Jon break that vow, so does Samuel Tarly.

As for the maesters, while we don't have as much of a focus on them as the others organizations, the most influental and important maester we get to follow in the book, Pycelle, of course break his vow frequently with his very young servant girl.

I get that, narratively speaking, it's supposed to show the hypocrisy of Westeros society, but still... If no one follow a sacred rule, is it still a scared rule? At this point, Westeros might just need to accept the situation and scrap the whole 'no sex' thing.

​

​

BLUF

I am calling this The Pearl Necklace Theory (PNT for short). I will explain why later, in case it hasn't been made clear to the reader by then. The central point of the theory is that our (modern Westerosi) understanding of two major prehistoric events are totally wrong.

The first thing that historians got wrong is about the formation of The Neck. The swampland between The North and the Riverlands was not created by a flooding event of any kind, but by a drying event. The swamps were never solid land; they used to be the ocean floor. Westeros was once two continents. Those continents are now the lands north of and south of the neck, respectively. When referring to the continent as a whole, I will use the word “Westeros”. When referring to the two continents before their collision, I will use the words “Northos” and “Southron”

The other issue historians got backwards is the meeting of The First Men and The Children of the Forest. Simply put, the First Men predated the arrival of the Children of the Forest in Southron, as The Children were native to Northos before the formation of a united Westeros. The First Men came to Southron in two ‘waves’. It is possible that these occurred simultaneously, or millennia apart. What makes the waves distinct is not time, but method and culture. At least two distinct groups came over that Westerosi now call the First Men.

1. One group were a people of the land. They survived by tilling and farming. They had little knowledge, if any, of ships and sailing because they didn’t need it to survive. They had a religion based on nature, growth, life and fertility centered around their god Garth the Green and his children. They came to Southron by land at a time when Southron and Essos were connected by more than just the Arm of Dorne. I will call this group The Green Men.

2. The other group were the opposite. They were seafarers who dared not venture away from the sea. They came by ship and settled on the islands and shores to the north and west (and eventually east) of Southron. Their religion was centered around a sea god and a storm god (sometimes enemies, sometimes lovers) They may or may not have had contact and cultural influence from the fabled Deep Ones or “Squishers” Unlike the Green Men, they did not sew. They survived by fishing, hunting, and raiding. I will call this group The Sea Men.

Regardless of which group came to Southron first or second, and when they did, it predated the arrival The Children of the Forest, and the giants. Those groups were natives of Northos. When the two lands formed one, they began intermingling. With some groups they found peace, but with most, particularly the Green Men, they warred.

PNT has multiple pieces of evidence in backing up its possibility, and solves a few lingering mysteries, but it does rely on the idea that the fog of ages has, over the millennia, twisted the modern Westerosi’s understanding of world events in both history and pre-history. The “true” timeline of relevant events is as follows:

TIMELINE

1. Essos and Southron collide, building a mountain range. It is possible that The Green Men migrated to Southron at this time, but were likely blocked by the mountains. It is more likely that the Sea Men arrive around this time, or at least earlier than the Green Men, because of archeological evidence.

2. Essos drifts away from Southron creating The Narrow Sea. This would have started as a rift valley that just kept growing. Eventually all that is left connecting the continents is the isthmus of Dorne. It is more likely The Green Men arrived as the continents were drifting apart.

3. Northos drifts south and collides with Southron. Instead of building a mountain range, the collision forces a large portion of the sea floor to the surface, creating a land bridge we now call The Neck. It is most likely that this event happened rather suddenly in an event I will call The Wringing of the Neck (because it was mostly dried, but left damp. Like when one wrings out a towel)

4. The Wringing of The Neck displaces a large amount of seawater that spread around the world in the form of a tsunami. This wave and the following rise in ocean levels was enough to finally break the Arm of Dorne, as well as decimate a peninsula on the northern sea now called The Thousand Isles. Today we refer to this as The Hammer of the Waters.

5. The Wringing of The Neck, The Breaking of the Arm, and The Hammer of the Waters creates a global catastrophe. Previously, cold water in the Shivering Sea was held in a circumpolar current that passed through the water between Northos and Southron. Now that passage is blocked, and a new one to the Summer Sea is open. Cold water rushes south as warm water flows north, both cooling the southern oceans and warming the northern ones. This leads to a climatic shift, catastrophic weather, and a thick cover of clouds that hides the sun for nearly a generation; A Long Night.

6. The Wringing of The Neck also suddenly forces a population of Sea Men who were enjoying costal/island life inland. Some flee back to the sea, leaving their castles behind. Others try to adapt to this new environment and became the Crannogmen.

7. The combining of Northos and Southron into Westeros also brings the native population of Children in The North into contact with the First Men. These were the Children of the Forrest. There was some cultural exchange at first between the First Men and Children, but war quickly follows. PNT proposes two possible reasons for the hostility:

First, the religions of the Children and the Green Men are at odds with each other. One is about natural harmony of birth, growth, death, and decay, while the other worships a god who taught them how to farm, how to control nature for humanities benefit. (Interestingly, while the Children’s religion is very different from the Sea Men’s, they are not actually at odds with each other. We’ll get to that later.)

Secondly, it is possible that each group saw the other as the cause of The Long Night, as each group arrived (from the perspective of the other) along with it. Each group may have fought the other because they believed it was the only way to bring back the sun.

8. Eventually peace was made in order to work together and solve the problem of The Long Night, and from here history in Westeros happens mostly as we understand it today, with a few details forgotten or misunderstood as the ages progressed.

Geologic Evidence:

There are three major geologic events that are necessary for this theory. 1) The collision of Essos and Southron. 2) The separation of Essos and Southron. 3) The collision of Northos into Southron creating Westeros. Each one of these would need their own backing evidence or else the theory falls apart, and we have that evidence for all three.

1. The collision of Essos into Southron would be the first event, and would have taken place in a time so far in the past, that very little evidence of it would remain, and yet remain it does. Westeros has three major mountainous areas south of The Neck: The Mountains of the Moon, The Red Mountains, and the mountains of the Westerlands (which oddly don’t have a collective name that we know of). These mountains are separated by large plains dominated by major river systems. The odd thing about these three groups is that none of them are exactly a “range” as we would expect mountains to be. They are all more-or-less “blob” shaped. That is, geologically, weird.

However, there is a simple explanation for this oddity: All three mountain groups were once part of a massive range that extended from The modern-day Vale, southwest to the Westerlands, and then southeast to Dorne. This massive range would have been the result of a collision between the Southron and Essos continental plates. Mountain ranges built by continental collision can be far ‘inland’ from the place where tectonic plates meet. For example, the European Alps are being formed by the northward movement of the African plate, even though the actual point where it meets the Eurasian plate is under the Mediterranean Sea.

But what about those massive gaps in the Riverlands and Reach? Well lets not forget those rivers. Water is the fastest means by which a mountain range can erode. The crescent shape of this massive range would have trapped atmospheric moisture inside the ‘crescent’ (We can assume the atmospheric currents are moving from east to west at this latitude because across the sea in Essos, the rain shadow of both the Hills of Norvos and The Bone Mountains are to the west) where it would fall as rain forming large river systems that, over the millions of years, would have carved their way through the mountains until we were left with two large, dank river valleys.

Besides the mountains, there is one more piece of evidence that Southron and Essos were once connected. Look at the narrow sea. Just look at it. The east coast of Westeros and the west coast of Essos match. Just like South America and Africa in the real world (which was what first clued geologists into the existence of plate tectonics). GRRM famously ‘made’ the outline of Westeros by cutting up, scaling, and rotating a map of the British Isles, but as far as we can tell, Essos was made up whole-cloth. The fact that its coastline matches up with Westeros was a deliberate decision made by GRRM for a reason, and PNT offers an explanation for what that reason is.

2. Assuming the above is valid, the separation of Essos from Southron is the easiest to prove. Point one: They are now separated.

BUT WAIT THERES MORE! It isn’t enough to just show that they are now apart, we need to know more. Specifically, are they apart because Southron was drifting West, or because Essos is drifting east? Evidence for either scenario can back up this theory, and we have it! In Essos, far across the Dothraki Sea, we will find the Bone Mountains, a massive range spans the entire continent from north to south. These are the tallest mountains in the known world. If the Westerosi mountains are the Appalachians, than these are the Himalayas. Tall mountains are young mountains. The Bones are still growing, which means Essos (at least the western half of it) is moving east, away from Westeros. (To be fair, this could be caused by the eastern half moving west. But I’ll still use it as additional evidence for this theory)

3. The last geologic event that took place is the collision between Southron and Northos, caused by the southward drifting of the Northos continental plate. This has two sub-points to prove: a) That they were once separate continents and b) that Northos drifted south and Southron did not drift north.

a) For point a, we have a solid piece of geologic evidence. There is a massive mountain range that extends most of the continent, from the Lands of Always Winter all the way to beyond the Wolfswood. Unlike the mountains to the south, these could not have been made by a collision with Essos, because there is no continent east or west of The North. They must have been formed when Northos was located in a different place on Planetos (again to be fair, it is possible that this range was created by an oceanic plate subduction collision, but if that were the case we would likely see the range continue further south if Westeros was just one tectonic plate)

b) It is more likely than not that a collision between Southron and Northos was caused by the movement of Northos, and not Southron. This is because the geologic features of Westeros and Essos are still in alignment as already discussed. If Southron was drifting northward, than Essos would have to be too (well, North-east). Not impossible, but less likely.

A final point backing up the idea that a collision event happened between the north and Southron: using the real world as our only available comparison, it is unusual to see a continental plate ‘wedged’ in the middle. Whenever an isthmus like The Neck has formed, its been at the meeting point of multiple continental plates. For example, the Sinai Peninsula between the African and Arabian plates. Or, more analogously, the convergence of the North American and South American (and Caribbean) plates, which have formed a narrow isthmus that is so swampy and inhospitable it is considered one of the most treacherous routes to travel in the world today.

Cultural Evidence

According to PNT, a group of first men who were culturally and technologically distinct from the rest settled on islands and coast lines around Southron. If this were the case, we should see evidence of it in the historic record and in the distribution of remnants of this culture today; and we do.

Ironborn and Sistermen share some interesting cultural similarities not seen elsewhere today. Specifically, they share the dualistic faith in which a sea god and storm god are foils to one another, a nebulous connection to Deep Ones or “Squishers”, an appreciation for piracy, raiding, and entrapment as a means of survival, and of course. . .

These similarities are interesting because these groups of people live nowhere near each other. These cultural practices are not seen on any part of Westeros’ coast or islands south of the Iron Isles, around Dorne, and back north again. It isn’t until we get the The Bite that this ‘Sea Culture’ becomes present again (It used to be present on the coast of what is now The Stormlands, but was ultimately abandoned for reasons I will discuss later). However, the Iron Isles and the Three Sisters are VERY close to each other if we ignore the presence of the neck.

What does this tell us? That these two cultures used to be one until they were split in half when the land rose up between them. This brings us to the third group relevant to this theory: The Crannogmen. Crannogmen share some physiological similarities to these other groups, such as the predisposition for webbed fingers that the Borrels have. Some theorists have attributed this to historic involvement with Squishers. But unlike the islanders, the Crannogmen live in inland marshes and swamps, and we only have evidence of Squisher presence on islands and shores. The simple explanation here is that parts of the Neck used to be islands.

According to PNT, the Crannogmen were among the Sea Men that settled on the islands between Southron and Northos. The Sea Men were the predecessors to the Ironborn, Sistermen, and Crannogmen. They migrated to the islands and shores of Southron by ship, and avoided traveling inland away from the sea. On those islands they built some of the earliest castles still standing today, such as Pyke and Moat Cailin. They worked with, were gifted, and/or found artifacts made with an oily black stone. They may have banged Squishers.

When Northos and Southron formed into Westeros, the sea floor rose up underneath some of these islands, creating a large swampy isthmus. This had several consequences for the Sea Men: It split the eastern and western populations and left those in the middle too far away from the sea. Some, like those who held Moat Cailin, chose the sea over their castle, and left. Others, for one reason or another, stayed behind and were forced to adapt. This group would become the Crannogmen.

This is why I am calling this idea The Pearl Necklace Theory: Because its about Sea Men on The Neck

The Children of the Forest were curious about this new land they now had access to. As they explored south, the first group of people they would have encountered was the Crannogmen. Being cut off from the sea, the Crannogmen ended up losing their faith in the sea and storm gods, as the sea and storms were no longer central to their way of life. This made them ripe for conversion to the Children’s nature/tree/earth based faith. This new religion helped them survive in an environment they were not culturally adapted for. Bear in mind that the children did not convert these Sea Men, but rather these Sea Men lost their faith and then adopted the Old Gods on their own. Some of these people migrated north to where the Children were from, which only helped solidify their adoption of The Old Gods.

Unfortunately for the Children of the Forest, as they explored further south they found another, larger group of men already well adapted for living on the land. And these people had a god/gods that reflected that (Garth and his children). These religions, filling the same ‘niche’, drove these groups to compete with each other. Eventually a pact was made and all the humans accepted the “Old Gods” as their own. But the acceptance of the Old Gods was different north and south of the neck. To the north, it was the only earth religion that humans knew, and so it was held onto closely. South of it, however, it was just a substitute for an earlier faith that humans had created themselves, and as such the Southrons were less ‘protective’ of this religion and were more ripe for conversion away from it by the Andals later on.

The Ironborn never gave up the Drowned God because they were never cut off from the sea. This led them to be strong adherents to their god as the Crannogmen and Northerners were to The Old Gods. So much so that, when the Andals showed up on their shore, the Ironborn were able to convert them away from The Seven. The story was similar on the Sisters, and while they eventually accepted the religion of the Andals, they never really let go of their old faith entirely. Essentially, the Andals were able to convert the descendants of the Green Men, but had a harder time with descendants of the Sea Men, whether they were on islands or inland.

Finally, this theory answers the question raised by the Maesters about the Hammer of the Waters. Why did The Children go to the trouble of breaking the Arm of Dorne after humans were already well established on Westeros? Simple: They didn’t. It just happened, and because it did so in conjunction with the arrival of the CotF, ancient humans came to associate one with the other, which over the ages became the story of The Children causing the break all together.

Archeological evidence

Moat Cailin is one of, if not the, oldest castle on Westeros. No-one remembers who built it, but whoever did used black basalt which, when wet, looks like it is covered in oil. The Oily Black Stone is closely associated with places near the sea, and are thus candidates for Deep Ones influence. The Seastone Chair, Isle of Toads, Asshai, etc. Moat Cailin is one of the most ‘inland’ example of something being built out of this material. One would think its almost too far inland, unless it wasn’t always so.

According to PNT, Moat Cailin was originally built by the Sea Men before the Wringing of the Neck on either an island or possibly the southern shore of Northos. This would make Moat Cailin similar to Pyke, which was also built before recorded history. In both cases, the castles are so old that they are, essentially, ruins. Despite being in largely the same state, Moat Cailin was abandoned while Pike was not. This is unusual because Cailin is in a much better location for a castle, strategically. There is little reason to abandon such a stronghold. I think the simplest explanation is that the original inhabitants abandoned it when the swamps rose up and cut them off from the sea, and thus their entire way of life. It also probably didnt help that the castle was clearly damaged in by the geologic event that ocured.

What do you suppose would happen to a freshly abandoned castle in mostly one piece? Someone would move in, of course! At this point in history, Cailin was the northernmost castle on Westeros, and would have been the first one to be encountered by the Children of the Forest. It just so happens that Moat Cailin is, far more than any other castle, associated with the CotF, to the point that one of the few remaining towers is named as being theirs. I believe that after the original, sea faring, inhabitants of Moat Cailin left their home, the CotF and Proto-Crannogmen who decided to try and make swamp life work moved in together, which is where the Crannogmen first converted to the Old Gods. But over time, the CotF abandoned the castle too, finding castles too unnatural for them, and the Crannogmen followed suit.

Other details to consider

1. Yeen: What about Yeen? It is made of oily Blackstone but further inland than Moat Cailin. Yeen sits on a large river that turns into a marshy delta. Deltas such as this are (most often) formed as its source river deposits layers and layers of silt over the millennia. Yeen’s placement alone is not enough to discredit this theory, as it can be reasonably assumed that Yeen was originally built on or very near the shore, and the Zamoyos river built up the delta between it and the sea. This could also be a reason for its abandonment: Like Moat Cailin, Yeen was abandoned as it was moved more and more distant from the sea.

2. The Thousand Islands: The islands are a distant land full of a xenophobic people. What we know about them and their history is not only clouded by time, but by distance and language. We have long assumed that, like the Sea Men, the Thousand Islanders have a cultural connection to the Squishers. We’ve been wrong. The most obvious distinction between the Thousand Islanders and descendants of the Sea Men is that the islanders fear the sea. They fear it so much that they wont go near it. A very odd situation for people living on islands, but perfectly understandable if they never wanted to be on islands in the first place. According to PNT, The Thousand Islands were once The One Peninsula, until a tsunami caused by The Wringing of The Neck slammed across their entire nation and left only the highest point of it above water. The Islanders were left stranded and trapped by a sea they did not understand. Remember who else avoided the sea? The Green Men. And what color are the Thousand Islander’s skin?

3. Storms End: Duran Godsgrief famously built castle after castle in defiance of the Sea and Storm gods who wanted to punish him for marrying their daughter. The one standing today was able to survive because it was built with The Children’s magic imbued into the foundation. There are two points about this story that stand out: The first is that Duran had a relationship with the sea and storm gods, not Garth or any of his children (with a possible exception of Bran the Builder). This means Duran was more than likely of the Sea Man culture as opposed to the Green Man culture. This is further backed up the fact that he was willing to work with The Children, and The Children with him. According to PNT, while The Children warred with The Green Men, they were more amenable to working with the Sea Men, especially ones who lost faith in their gods. In the case of the Crannogmen, they abandoned their gods because they were cut off from the sea. In the case of Duran and his people, they lost faith in their gods because, well, in-laws, am I right?

Conclusion

In summation, The Pearl Necklace basically explains the geographic and cultural situation of the world today as the result different groups migrating at different times and in different manner as geologic events allowed.

I welcome any thoughts, questions, and criticism.

I saw an interesting post earlier asking what would have happened if Ned refused Robert’s offer and it got me thinking.

What would Jon Arryn have done if he was hand during the events of AGOT? Let’s say he still develops concerns about the twins but his investigation is delayed so his discovery of the twincest isn’t until roughly the same time as Ned’s.

How does Jon Arryn handle Daenerys, Renly’s Margaery plan and, most importantly, Robert’s death? Would he make the same mistakes as Ned, would he follow Renly’s advice or come up with a plan of his own?

And how does his survival change things for the other players? What does Stannis do if he’s in the capital when Robert dies?

So what's the worst thing that Margaery has ever done?

There are A LOT of reasons for the Stark to hate the Targaryens, as in canon, they were pretty much shit on throughout the entire reign of House Targaryen in some way.

• Firstly, as a reward for bending the knee and joining the Kingdom without bloodshed, the only Kingdom that did that, they got a forced marriage of Torrhen's daughter to their most hated enemy, House Arryn.

At that point in time, the Starks hated the Arryns as much as canon Starks hate the Lannisters and the Ironborn. They have been at war over the Three Sisters for thousands of years, they despise each other, and Rhaenys just arranged Torrhen's daughter to be married of. Her brothers were enraged and did not attend the wedding as protest.

• Next, when the Three Sisters rebelled against Ronnel Arryn, Aegon (for some reason) tasked Torrhen with quelling the Rebellion. Why on earth he asked a ruler to handle a rebellion IN ANOTHER KINGDOM is beyond me. Torrhen had to hire ships and sell-sails from Braavos to deal with the Three Sisters and, again, there is no reward.
• Moving back to the wedding of Torrhen's daughter with Ronnel Arryn. Ronnel's brother sometime later rebelled against him and trew him out of the moondoor. What happened to Ronnel's Stark wife and their half-Stark children (if they had any) I don't know. But I don't imagine they lived if Jonos (Ronnel's brother) wanted to be "King of the Mountains and the Vale". The fact that after Jonos' death he was succeeded by a cousin means that either he killed Ronnel's children, or they never existed. There is no mention of Torrhen's daughter.
• Years later, the then Lord of Winterfell, Walton, died due to the Swords and Stars rebelling at the Wall, a place they were only at due to Jaehaerys sending them there at insane numbers that the Watch couldn't support. (Jaehaerys gave absolutely ZERO fucks, not his problem). Something that, again, the Starks and the North had to deal with.
• To put insult to injury, the Targaryens fucked with the North, YET AGAIN, when Alysanne saw fit to just take away a HUGE amount of land from the North, land that was already ruled by other lords of the North btw, and give it to the fcking Night's Watch. That is just laughable.

This is from the Wiki: "Lord Alaric was wary of the idea of the New Gift, as the northmen who already held those lands would oppose having them taken away. According to Archmaester Gyldayn, the charming Alysanne eventually persuaded Lord Stark to agree to the plan,^([4]) and it is said that the Starks were glad to aid the Watch.^([5])"

Ah yes, charming Alysanne persuaded Alaric to give away the gift. Persuaded with Silverwing and Vermithor flying over Winterfell no doubt. Much Alaric could do there.

• Then there is the whole thing with Viserra Targaryen and a Manderly, which btw is a complete moronic marriage, why people praise Alysanne, I don't know. The Targaryens promised the Manderly's a marriage and never delivered. (Yes, I know Viserra died before the wedding, and? The same thing happened with Brandon and Catelyn. He died and his next of kin had to marry his intended.)

• Then Cregan marched south and "Won" the Dance of the Dragons for the Blacks and stabilized Aegon III's reign, only to never be granted the Royal marriage he was promised.

• The North answered the call of Daeron the "Young Dragon" to conquer Dorne and they lost Rickon Stark, the heir to Winterfell outside Sunspear. Kickstarting a period of internal warring within House Stark.

From the Wiki: "Rickon's death outside of Sunspear in one of the final battles was lamented in the north for years to come because of the troubles that dogged the reigns of his half-brothers.^([2])"

• They then had to suffer the indignity of seeing the hated Dornish be rewarded for commiting the greatest violation of Guest Right in Westerosi History up until that point (where after crushing them in combat and bringing the rebellious Dornishmen to their knees for a second time, the Dornish assassinated the King at a peace conference) something they would have hated even worse than all the rest given the North takes Guest Right even more seriously than the South.
• Then following the spring sickness, Bloodraven and Aerys the First refused to protect any of their subjects along the West coasts from the Ironborn, leaving House Stark to deal with the Ironborn themselves (alongside the Lannisters). And finally the last indignity was the everything that Rhaegar and his father did that kickstarted Jon Arryn's defiance which in turn led to Robert's Rebellion. Which killed 3 members of House Stark and however many other nobles were with Brandon and Rickard in King's Landing.

That is an insane amount of offences the Targaryens gave the North and House Stark. I seriously cannot think of any other House that got fucked over by the Targaryens more than the Starks.

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My top three arcs are probably Jaime in ASOS and AFFC, Theon in ADWD, and Sansa from ACOK onwards. I love the melancholy of Jaime gradually realizing he’s wasted his life and wants to be better; Theon coming to terms with his name and what he did; and Sansa gradually maturing under fire. Honourable mention to Dany and Jon’s ADWD arcs.

My least favourite arcs are probably Arya from AFFC onwards, and the Dornish and Iron Islands plots in AFFC. I think GRRM’s worldbuilding when it came to different cultures is pretty middling, and I thought Arya’s arc was both boring and straining suspension of disbelief. Also Tyrion’s arc in ADWD, while very well written, was a pain to read.

My prediction, is that if Maegor had children with multiple brides, but was still mysteriously killed on the Iron Throne, the line of succession still would've passed through Jaehaerys' line (or Aenys' technically). History has proven that the nobility prefers older heirs to younger heirs, even if the line of succession should go the younger heirs. For instance, when Maekar died, the line of succession legally, should've gone through Aerion's line, to Maegor. But Maegor Brightflame was passed over, because he was only a year old, and would've had to have a 10+ year regency, and Aegon III's regency ruined regency's in most people's minds.

So, IMO had Maegor died the same way but with children, they still would've been passed over, because Jaehaerys was only a year away from seniority, while Maegor's kids would've been far younger than him, and would've had a much longer regency period.

However, this would cause some problems down the line. Assuming Jaehaerys didn't kill his nieces/nephews upon ascending the throne (Rogar Baratheon would've advocated for their execution more than likely, but Alyssa Velaryon would've agreed with Jaehaerys over Rogar here I think), they would remain in the Red Keep, as Princes and Princesses of House Targaryen.

When Jaehaerys, has his succession crisis, Maegor's descendants would likely be considered candidates, but the majority wouldn't want the line of succession to pass through Maegor's line, and Viserys would still be named heir. This means that the Dance of the Dragons, still likely takes place, except with THREE parties instead of two. Maybe even more than that.

The Blacks would support Rhaenyra, the Greens would support Aegon II, and the REDS would support the oldest living heir of Maegor's line (let's call him Maegor II). However, the Reds would probably not be a united force due to in-fighting. If Maegor had one kid with each wife in theory (besides Ceryse who was confirmed to be barren, and Rhaena so her story isn't changed too much), then each kid's descendants would question their line's legality. If polygamy is unrecognized in the Faith in the Seven, then do Maegor's later descendants count as much as his earlier ones? I could imagine Maegor's grandchildren being called glorified bastard spawn, much like Jacaerys, Lucerys and Joffrey were.

In the end, I do believe the Dance would've been an even more violent war with a third party involved (or more than three if the Reds had multiple claimants). I'm not sure if the Reds would win or not, since many lords were quick to leave Maegor when Jaehaerys was crowned, but the Blacks and Greens had noticeable faults (the Blacks' Queen had 3 bastards and was married to a guy they supported Rhaenyra for, specifically because they DIDN'T want Daemon to be King, while the Greens' King was a drunkard and a philanderer who cared little for the throne).

Who do you think would win in a hypothetical Dance that involves a Red party? And do you agree this is what likely would've happened if Maegor had heirs?

Hey everyone. So, before this one I did the estimated numbers for settlement sizes and this time, I will be doing how much each great house would have spent during the war of the (four at one time but because it sounds cooler) five kings, even though considering Balon a king is an insult to the word. The wage are from the hundred years war era of England or the early 14th century, fitting since it was during this time that both plate and mail were still being used frequently, which is about the same military technological level as Westeros is in now since cannons and gunpowder only started being a fixture later in the century and early 15th. For every knight and lord present, there will presumably be a squire as well, since even Tyrion was given a squire. And cavalry that is not knights are considered men-at-arms, as all knights were men-at-arms but not all men-at-arms were knights, ya dig? Just to see what the campaigns would've cost these regions in the real world per day. And maybe this will put into context just how FUCKEN HUGE THESE ARMIES ARE for a medieval setting. The estimated revenue for the crown during this time was about 30 000 pounds for reference. And for in universe reference to gold dragons, Dunk sold a palfrey for about 750 silver stags. A palfrey in this time is about 10 pounds, and I am using silver stags because pounds were counted in pounds of silver, thus the exchange is the best way to do it. 750 silver stags is worth 42 000 pennies and the 10 pounds is worth 2 400 pennies so the exchange is 17.5.

• 1 Pound (L) = 20 Shillings (s)
• 1 Shilling (s) = 12 pences
• 1 Westerosi penny = 17.5 pennies
• 1 Westerosi silver stag = 56 Westerosi pennies
• 1 Westerosi Gold dragon = 210 Silver stags
• Knights: 2s/day (24 pennies per day)
• Men-at-arms or squires: 1s/day (12 pennies per day)
• Archer: 3d/day
• Infantry: 2d/day

The North

• Maester Luwin states that there are only 300 knights of a cavalry number of about 3 300-3 400. We know that during the war, Robb has 5 000 heavy cavalry, which means Robb had about ~500 knights with him, the rest are heavy cavalry and thus just men-at-arms. The north do not believe in knighthood so squires may be an iffy thing, since we know that Robb does not have a squire himself pre-Walder swindling Catelyn for an arm and a leg. And if even Robb, basically a king of a region (The Iron Throne is more an empire) does not have one, I do not see other lords and especially knights having any. As seen with the Umber's force under Whoresbane had 300 spearmen to 100 archers. They were an untouched force so thats the infantry:archer ratio we're going with, archers making up 25% of the cavalry. So the infantry amounts are 11 250 infantry and 3 750 archers.
• Knight cost: (500 men) 12 000 pennies
• Squire cost: (500 boys) 6 000 pennies
• Men-at-arms cost: (4 500 men) 54 000 pennies
• Infantry cost: (11 250 men) 11 250 pennies
• Archer cost: (3 750 men) 7 500 pennies
• The war, in the real world, would've cost Robb about 90 750 pennies a day, or 377.99 pounds a day, or $520 786.91 in modern yankee. According to a timeline I found online, Robb calls his banners about mid October 298, and dies in about early December 299 for about ~410 days meaning the war would've cost House Stark about 155 031 medieval pounds, 55 368 gold dragons or $213.5 million in today's money. For reference, the War of Five Kings would've cost House Stark, assuming they had royal revenue equivalent to England, 4.60 year's worth of income. (Subject to the fact that Robb loses men during the course of the war).

The Riverlands

• The Riverlands only ever raise a large enough army to amount to 11 000 men. BUT, about 1 500 infantrymen Freys are with Roose discussing how best to show Robb their loyalty, and about 1 600 cavalrymen are with Robb (Robb has 5 000 horsemen when he arrives and is added to by 1 000 Frey cavalry. He then gives Roose at least 600 horsemen so thats 5 400 but he has 6 000 at the Whispering Woods, and we know that the Mallisters and survivors of Edmure's L join him so that accounts for the other 600 men being Rivermen). We know that at Winterfell in ADWD, the Freys have 500 knights in total, so half their cavalry is knights. That means the Riverlands had about 4 600 cavalry on the field at one time. We know this is after suffering casualties and the Riverlands have a cavalry ratio of about 25% meaning they should've had about 18 400 men at the most. According to the Butchers Ball, the infantry and archer ratio is 1:1.
• Knight cost: (2 300 men) 55 200 pennies
• Squire cost: (2 300 squires) 27 600 pennies
• Men-at-arms cost: (2 300 men) 27 600 pennies
• Infantry cost: (6 900 men) 6 900 pennies
• Archer cost: (6 900 men) 13 800 pennies
• The war, for grass touchers, would've cost Edmure about 131 100 pennies a day or 546.25 pounds a day or $752 512.49 in american. According to the timeline, Edmure calls his banners mid September and the war ends for the Tullys at the Twins so early December for about ~440 days. Meaning the war would've cost House Tully about 240 350 medieval pounds, 85 839 gold dragons or $331.1 million in today's money. That's about 6.76 year's worth of their taxes if we base it off of Hundred Year War era English crown revenue. This would also technically fall under Robb's expenses because the Riverlands swore him in as king.

The Iron Islands

Sigh, lets get it over with. Canonically, the Iron Islands are both the most diverse and illiterate place in the entire Seven Kingdoms.... Okay so I am only using numbers we know of or can at least reasonably estimate based off of what the books gave us. A longship can have about 33.3 people on it, real world maths, and Asha has 30 ships carry 1 000 men so its backed in book maths too. There are about 400 lords and captains at Balon's dumb feast to hear his dumb plan to commit a dumb invasion. The Iron Fleet is 3 times the size of the normal ship and number 100 ships, with some being even bigger than that, so that is about 10 000 men right there. That means 300 other captains sailing normal ships for 9 990 in total. That numbers about 19 990 ironborn gathered to accomplish ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. These illiterate sea drinkers have no cavalry or knights save a handful so everyone is just infantry. But then I remembered that giving out wages is for greenlanders and they instead get paid in the iron price, oooouuuuu..... God i hate them so much.

In the real world, the war would've cost Balon just 19 990 pennies a day or 83.29 pounds a day or $114 376 in today's America. Balon, according to this lil cute timeline, is crowned in about March of 299 and the war continues into current day I really wanna call it at Balon's death because that day made me happy but we will keep it to the most current day of the story at about mid July of year 300. He died in early November of 299 so that is about ~500 days for a total cost of 41 645 medieval pounds, 14 874 gold dragons or $57.36 million in today's money. That is about 1.01 of the English crown's yearly revenue.

The Westerlands

• This is the one fucking army that I am clear about its composition. Tyrion notes that 75% of the knights make up the cavalry wing under Ser Addam Marbrand, 4 000 men. Tywin has the rest of the knights and rides down with 500 knights to finish off the Northmen because Roose sold hard. So that means Tywin has 2 000 knights with him. Thus, the cavalry is 26.67% knightly. Jaime has about 3 000 horsemen with him, so that is about 2 800 knights and 7 700 cavalry. In the Reyne-Tarbeck Rebellion, the infantry was split 50/50 for hand-to-hand combatants and cowards. Tywin as 35 000 men at the outside of the war.
• Knight cost: (2 800 men) 67 200 pennies
• Squire cost: (2 800 men) 33 600 pennies
• Men-at-arms cost: (7 700 men) 92 400 pennies
• Infantry cost: (12 250 men) 12 250 pennies
• Archer cost: (12 250 men) 24 500 pennies
• In the real world, this war would cost Tywin 229 950 pennies or 958.13 pounds or $1.32 Million a fucking day. Tywin calls the banners in the middle of September of 298 and they are pretty much out in the field until Tywin dies, with the rest being a skeleton crew under Jaime from there on out so up until early February of 300 for about ~500 days. That amounts to a cost of 479 065 medieval pounds, 171 094 gold dragons or $659 million, essentially 11.65 times the amount of the English Crown revenues.

The Reach & Stormlands

• The numbers for what is exactly Tyrell numbers and what are Stormlanders numbers is iffy. But this is the war of the five kings so we will add them under him. He had about 80 000 men with him, with Mace raising another 10 000 men for a total of 90 000 men. We hear that after the Blackwater, the Tyrells have about 50 000 to 70 000 men (I am going with 70 000 men), so the the Stormlanders probably accounted for 20 000 men at minimum and an average of 30 000 (20 000 is what I am going with). The splits for archer and infantry and knights and cavalry is difficult to get but what we got is that for the Hightowers, during their little dance of treachery, had 1 000 knights, 1 000 archers and 3 000 men at arms. According to the Princess and the Queen chapter of Fire and Blood, they are able to raise 9 000 total so the additional 4 000 are probably levies. When the force latter numbers about 20 000 men at Tumbleton, about a tenth are knights, so we know that knights make up a tenth of the number. If we use the Hightower breakdown (save that the knights made up a tenth), that means the Reach amassed the following wage damage;
• Knight cost: (7 000 men) 168 000 pennies
• Squire cost: (7 000 boys) 84 000 pennies
• Men-at-arms cost: (21 000 men) 252 000 pennies
• Infantry cost: (28 000 men) 28 000 pennies
• Archer cost: (7 000 men) 14 000 pennies
• In the real world, the war would've cost Mace (Under Renly and then Joffrey) about 546 000 pennies a day or 2 275 pounds or $3 133 207.19 a day. Renly was wed in about mid January of 299 and the Tyrells are fighting till this very day so that is about ~560 days for a total cost of 1.27 million medieval pounds, 455 000 gold dragons or 1.75 BILLION DOLLARS. That means they would've spent 27.67 times the yearly English Crown's revenue oh lawd!
• The Stormlands is a little harder to ascertain the army composition. During Boros Baratheon getting his cheeks clapped by 3 children with a combined age of about 44! The army was 6 000 strong with 600 knights so knights were 10% of the army. The Reach made up 60 000 of the 80 000 at the time they go to Stannis with 20 000 horsemen so 5 000 of the horsemen belong to the Stormlands for 25% cavalry rate. 15 000 infantry divided by 6.66 to get the knightly amount. We'll just assume they have a 50/50 infantry and archer split because fuck it, also Marcher lords allegedly have amazing archers.
• Knight cost: (2 000 men) 48 000 pennies
• Squire cost: (2 000 boys) 24 000 pennies
• Men-at-arms cost: (3 000 men) 36 000 pennies
• Infantry cost: (7 500 men) 7 500 pennies
• Archer cost: (7 500 men) 15 000 pennies.
• In the real world, this war would've cost Renly about 130 500 pennies or 543.75 pounds or $748 852.91 a day. Renly was wed in about mid January of 299 and he DIES LIKE THE DOG HE IS about mid June in the same year. That is about ~150 days for a total cost of 81 562.5 medieval pounds, 29 129 gold dragons or $112 million. That is 2.72 times the yearly revenue. Bad Renly.

The Crownlands

• So we'll do how much Joffrey is in debt and how much Stannis is in debt later. So, the crownlands is a little hard to get a composition of so we know from the Targaryen garrison numbers that they have 30 knights, 100 crossbowmen and 300 men-at-arms. Crispy Coal was able to gather 100 knights and 500 men at arms from the city so I will go with that for the men-at-arms and knightly split and the crossbow/archer infantry split from what we got from Dragonstone. King's Landing at that time gave up about 4 000 men in infantry under Aemond, so that means we have our split folks. Joffrey had about 6 000 goldcloaks, who will count as infantry, about 300 knights, squires and men at arms (100 each).
• Knight cost: (100 men) 2 400 pennies
• Squire cost: (100 boys) 1 200 pennies
• Men-at-arms cost: (100 men) 1 200 pennies
• Infantry cost: (6 000 men) 6 000 pennies
• Archer cost: (25 men) 50 pennies
• In the real world, this war would've cost Joffrey 10 050 pennies or 41.88 pounds or $56 689.56 a day. At mid June of 299 does it seem to be where the Lannisters tripled the gold cloaks until this very day for about ~430 days for a total cost of 18 008.4 medieval pounds, 6 431 gold dragons or 24.4 million dollars or 60%. Stannis gathers about 5 000 men, we don't know how many are sellswords and how many are vassals and levies but we do know that Aegon arrived in Westeros from Dragonstone with 3 000 men so we'll assume that 3 000 men are Westerosi. We use the above figures to get the numbers needed.
• Knight cost: (47 men) 1 128 pennies
• Squire cost: (47 boys) 564 pennies
• Men-at-arms cost: (234 men) 2 808 pennies
• Infantry cost: (2 594 men) 2 594 pennies
• Archer cost: (78 men) 156 pennies
• In the real world, this war would've cost Stannis 7 250 pennies or 30.21 pounds or $41 605.88 per day. Stannis probably began to gather his men after Robert's death in late October and his army disintegrates at the Blackwater so early/mid September of 299 for about ~320 days. That totals 9 667 medieval pounds, 3 452 gold dragons or $13.31 million, meaning he has spent less than 32% of England's Crown Revenue.

The rest of the kingdoms are not involved in the war, but that should put into perspective just how crazy it is that these armies are this large and are out in the field for this long. So, if these king's were willing to spend the entire revenue of England to go to war with the army compositions carried over, the actual numbers would be;

• The North: ~13 000 men (Or 79 days of campaigning with their 20 000 strong army)
• The Iron Island: ~19 990 men (Or 360 days of campaigning with their 19 990 strong army)
• The Westerlands: ~10 100 men (Or 31 days of campaigning with their 35 000 strong army)
• The Riverlands: ~10 300 men (Or 55 days of campaigning with their 18 400 strong army)
• The Reach: ~9 600 men (Or 13 days of campaigning with their 70 000 strong army)
• The Stormlands: ~10 500 men (Or 55 days of campaigning with their 20 000 strong army)
• The Crownlands: ~9 300 men (Or 416 days of campaigning with their 9 300 strong army)

This obviously doesn't take into account that the Reach and Westerlands are exceptionally more wealthy than the other kingdoms.

What are your theories about it?

As we have seen in the show, Dorne consists of dagger wielding women, too stupidly blind with vengeance, who end up killing Oberyn's brother, Doran, and Myrcella without thinking of the consequences (fuck you David and Dan).

However, in the books, we know Arianne wants Trystane to marry Myrcella for the same reason Tywin married Cersei to Robert - to leak their family into the red keep, the small council, and general power over Westeros. The main questions here are: How would Cersei react to this? And will they kill Tommen?

At the end of ADWD, Kevan Lannister is assassinated by Lord Varys in a power move to have the Tyrells blame Cersei, and Cersei blame Tyrion. It's an action that will show its effects in TWOW in terms of Lannisters losing stability. So, perhaps we will see the Martells and sand snakes in the red keep come TWOW and once Dorne is told of Kevan's death.

If Trystane and Arianne come to King's Landing, I assume their relationship with Cersei will become the same as Loras and Margaery. More paranoia and spite for Cersei to build up within her, having her daughter finally come home after several years with people she doesn't know, thus adding to her arc of descent into evil and madness.

Regarding Tommen, there's NO way the Martells will just wait until he dies naturally when he's not even 10 years old. We know Tommen is a weak and vulnerable child, however he is constantly guarded and protected from threats per Cersei's command, so the simple throat cut or push off a ledge is out of the question. Knowing Dorne, whose poison is their weapon, they could take advantage of Tommen's weak and vulnerable appearance and bring some "natural sickness" to give Tommen the same style of death as Edward VI (1537-1553), thus placing Myrcella on the throne and hoorah, power to Dorne! And at this point, Cersei will be too weak in power to take her accusations seriously, disregarding her as simply paranoid and deluded.

The Tyrells did have a grudge with the Martells in the past, however it's most likely they'll take advantage of the marriage to Myrcella and form an alliance to better secure the south of Westeros. With everything going on, starting some personal civil war in the red keep (as much as there already is) isn't of their interests, as there is till the light of the seven to deal with.

CONCLUSION: Myrcella and the Martells will definitely play and important role in King's Landing, most likely through the POV chapters of Cersei and Arianne, as it's a great opportunity to bring an interesting arc to Myrcella, and will also raise the stakes for Cersei.

Maybe because I was once heartbroken just like Criston, but I genuinely love his character in the show, and the books.

Let's for a second discard the Andal, AND the medieval tradition of always supporting a male heir over a female. Looking at it from Criston's perspective: You love a girl deeply, but she just uses you as a toy, a game, so he gets the best revenge in history he could get.

Thoughts? Am I biased?

Famously, G.R.R.M. intended for a five-year gap to bridge A Storm of Swords and his next book, A Dance With Dragons.

The five-year gap was an attempt to correct a problem George had first been confronted with when he resumed writing A Game of Thrones in 1993/1994; essentially that the story was moving much more quickly than he'd envisioned. George had imagined that his fantasy epic would cover several years and in that time characters who were introduced as children (mainly Arya, Bran) would grow into adults. Yet even early in his return to working on the book it the plot demanded urgency e.g. Bran and the catspaw. A Clash of Kings was no remedy and the War of the Five Kings passed by in a brisk few months; at this point George sat down and wrote an outline for the series.

However, for various reasons, after six months of writing he decided to scrap the gap and introduce a new book to cover the events between Swords and Dance. Despite ditching the off-screen time jump George still believed it was necessary to have five or six years elapse before the events of Dance could begin, as he originally intended.

So in September 2001 at a fan convention George made two announcements:

1. He was scrapping the five-year gap.
2. He was introducing a new book to cover the events between Swords and Dance which was to be titled A Feast For Crows. This book, Feast, would be paced to cover five or six years worth of happenings and set the stage for Dance.

In a sense George was returning to his earlier ambition for the series to take place over many years and months. While the five-year gap is well known, that George hoped that Feast could fill it...isn't.

How George intended to structure this book which took place over five years is unclear. He hinted that some characters (likely Bran, Arya) would mostly be in the background "learning" during the events of this book covering five+ years. But what of Tyrion or Cersei? Would their stories reach a certain point and then freeze? Both of their opening chapters were read by George at the same convention he announced Feast. In March 2002 George reported he was writing Jaime's chapter where he parlays with the Blackfish. Relatedly, Brienne's quest was one of the reasons George abandoned the five-year gap. Were Jaime and Brienne still supposed to intersect? How would they land in a place where five-six years could pass? Perhaps George had something in mind.

By January 2002 George wasn't sounding so keen and said he only hoped to cover five years. In a March update he commented that writing was proceeding "more slowly than I'd like" and as 2002 went on the floated publication date of later that year slipped away. I haven't been able to find when exactly George decided that the book would no longer cover five years but it seems likely it happened in a similar fashion as with Thrones where the story just wouldn't move as quickly as he wanted it to.

When Feast finally released it was frankly, a dog's dinner. Some fantastic prose and characterisation sure, but not really a coherent novel that advanced characters to a place where the "main" narrative could resume with A Dance With Dragons. Indeed, Dance as the book where Daenerys invaded Westeros faded too and instead the title was used for a swathe of chapters cut from Feast. Fans have debated when exactly the writing of ASOIAF came undone and it does appear that 2001-2003 was a crucial period.

(For a deeper dive into the troubled writing of Feast I recommend reading u/gsteff reports on his trips to the Cushing Library.[1][2])