/r/FutureWhatIf

Photograph via snooOG

Welcome

Welcome to FutureWhatIf, a place to discuss all the possibilities that the future may hold.

Basic Rules & Suggestions

  1. Keep it realistic and somewhat serious. A scenario about the possibility of Obama raising the income tax rate to 75% in 2016 is good. A scenario about Obama revealing himself to be a powerful warlock in 2016 is not.

  2. Give context. You have an entire self post outside of the title to explain your question. Feel free to put your answer in there if you'd like! However better background creates a better question, and if you don't leave any background....

  3. Take liberty in answering the question! If OP didn't give enough context in their question, make up your own. The sub is based around quality answers, take liberty in the process of creating them.

  4. No joke or short, non-engaging comments. A joke inside an answer is fine, but address OP's question and engage in conversation.

  5. Civility and politeness are still rules. Don't correct bad spelling and/or grammar. Don't attack a person's politics and don't exalt your own. Please try and refrain from telling OP their scenario is impossible. If you do, at the least give a good explanation why. Report bad behavior to a mod if you see it.

  6. Start your posts with a [FWI] tag or 'What If'. We don't want this subreddit to cause heart trauma to users who forgot they were subscribed.

  7. Adding a date to the explanation is recommended. By default, questions without a date are assumed to start one month from the date posted.

The rules are currently subject to change as the demands of the community evolve.

If you see someone breaking these rules, please press the report button.

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/r/FutureWhatIf

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1

FWI: Trump wins the 2024 Presidential Election, only to be assassinated by Hamas

Let's imagine the following: Trump wins the 2024 Presidential Election. Let's also say he selects Vivek Ramaswamy as his VP. About nine months to a year after he is sworn in and his Presidency begins, Trump announces that he is meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel to discuss a game-plan to finish off Hamas (I imagine Hamas is still kicking at this point). Hamas somehow finds out about this and decides to make a public statement by assassinating Trump.

To that end, they shoot down Air Force One before it can land in Jerusalem, killing Trump and everyone else on board.

Now as the new President, does Vivek order the deployment of ground troops in Gaza to fight Hamas alongside Israel? Does Trump's assassination result in WW3?

2 Comments
2024/04/01
00:41 UTC

0

FWI: Mexico City is attacked by either Hamas or North Korea.

Let us imagine that Mexico City is nuked. I envisioned two scenarios in which this could happen:

  • Scenario 1: Hamas tries to smuggle stolen Russian suitcase nukes onto American soil through the US-Mexico border with the hell of drug cartels, intending to nuke a major US City with it. Unfortunately due to either sabotage or faulty wiring, the nukes prematurely go off, destroying Mexico City.
  • Scenario 2: North Korea does a long-range nuclear missile test but due to either sabotage or faulty mechanics, it accidentally detonates over Mexico City. The resulting EMP plunges Mexico City and the surrounding area into total darkness.

How does the world react to either scenario? Which one is more likely to happen? Which one sounds the most outlandish? Does the situation with Hamas lead to Mexico going to war with Hamas alongside Israel? Does WW3 happen?

15 Comments
2024/03/31
16:15 UTC

1

[FWI] Assume you receive news of an upcoming Hollywood film about Simo Hayha. Who would you like to see directing it?

Simo Hayha, as the deadliest sniper of all time, seems to be very well-known in Reddit, possibly to the point that he's a meme.

But outside of Reddit, if there was an upcoming Hollywood film about Simo Hayha, who would you like to see directing it?

Would a Simo Hayha biopic be increasingly likely to come about due to ongoing Russian aggression?

2 Comments
2024/03/31
10:37 UTC

3

[FWI] The mysterious underground metal object in the Cobble Hill Tunnel is revealed to be an industrial-scale meth lab

This scenario is inspired by this video: What Lies Beneath The City Of New York?

It explores how the Cobble Hill Tunnel was rediscovered by Bob Diamond in 1980, who got approval to clear part of it and run tours through it. However, there was a blocked section and he suspected a historic locomotive was behind it, and later scans suggest that there is a large metal object there. In 2010, he lost approval to run tours due to safety concerns from the Department of Transportation and the New York Fire Department.

What if the mysterious metal object is not a historic locomotive but an industrial-scale meth lab, run by corrupt DoT or NYFD officials who used their powers to eliminate the chances of being caught?

2 Comments
2024/03/28
22:40 UTC

0

FWI: Donald Trump wins in 2024, but suffers a mental breakdown and has to be removed from office within days of his inauguration.

In my hypothetical, let's say Trump wins in 2024 (and he has picked Ron DeSantis as his VP). However, he suffers a mental breakdown that leads to him ranting and raving incoherently within days of his inauguration and has to be removed from office. I imagined him raving madly about wanting to destroy his enemies in the Democrats during an inaugural address, talking as if he was possessed by demons or something.

What happens now that Trump is out of the picture? How does DeSantis run the country in place of Trump? Does Project 2025 still happen under DeSantis? Does he go after the liberal population of America more harshly than Trump? Less harshly?

25 Comments
2024/03/28
21:23 UTC

3

[FWI] West Philippines Sea incident where whilst intercepting a Filipino Supply Boat to Ayungin Shoal, the Chinese Coast Guards watercanon accidentally kills several sailors?

What will happen between China and the Philippines?

Could this trigger the Philippine-USA MDT?

Or create a Naval War in the South China/West Philippines Sea

0 Comments
2024/03/28
02:26 UTC

0

FWI: Donald Trump's private jet crashes into the Gulf of Mexico.

A malfunction on Donald Trump's private jet causes it to crash in the ocean. After an investigation, it is revealed that the malfunction was the result of technical problems, and engine failure. However, many Q Anon conspiracy theorists, and Trump supporters believe Trump was assassinated by the CIA or Joe Biden. Republicans in congress are put under pressure by Trump supporters to impeach Biden, even though there is no direct evidence Biden had anything to do with the former President's death at sea. This all culminates in a second 1/6 scenario, days before the election in November. How does the Biden administration deal with the fallout of Trump's death, and the resulting riot at the capital building close to election day? How does the country take the death of Donald Trump, and how does this impact the election as a whole?

5 Comments
2024/03/27
21:24 UTC

27

FWI: Saudi secularists overthrow the Saudi Royal Family.

I imagined a scenario where the Saudi Royal Family is deposed by secularists who no longer want Islam as the state religion of Saudi Arabia. The perps are secular Saudis who have hired either Wagner Group PMCs for extra muscle.

How feasible is this scenario? Would Wagner Group even WANT to help overthrow the Saudi Royal Family, considering they're already guilty of war crimes in Ukraine and Africa?

36 Comments
2024/03/27
17:51 UTC

2

[FWI] On July 1, 2047, the National People's Congress extends Section 9 of the Nationality Law to Hong Kong and revokes Chinese citizenship from dual citizens with Hong Kong permanent residency. Mass deportation occurs, resulting in hundreds of thousands of people being forced to leave Hong Kong.

Context:

For centuries, groups of Chinese people immigrated to and settled in southeast Asia (modern-day Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam). Then, the 1945-1949 Chinese Civil War concluded with a Communist takeover of the mainland led by Mao Zedong and the Taiwanese islands being ruled by Chiang Kai-shek. Since 1868, when the Chinese empire (Qing dynasty) signed an agreement with the United States allowing dual citizenship, it was largely understood that anyone who is ethnically Chinese is a Chinese citizen regardless of where on Earth they were born and/or living in and whether they had citizenship elsewhere.

As a result of the new Communist government taking over China, southeast Asian nations were terrified that Chinese people who have dual citizenship may be disloyal to their countries of residence and pressured Mao to force these citizens to make a choice: you must choose either Chinese citizenship or the citizenship of the country you are living in. Dual citizenship shall be prohibited once and for all. Mao agrees. Decades later, he dies of old age and the law is codified in 1980, where Section 9 decrees "A Chinese citizen residing abroad who voluntarily acquires citizenship in a foreign country shall automatically lose Chinese citizenship". This law is still in operation to this day despite China losing 850, 000 people in 2022 and 2, 080, 000 people in 2023 due to unsustainably low birth rates. Such population loss is expected to continue into perpetuity until China ceases to exist as a nation.

Meanwhile, in the 1840s, the Opium Wars broke out because the British Empire wished to sell drugs to the Chinese (to which the Chinese government tried to resist). China lost the wars and Hong Kong became a British colony. There were additional land leases of the New Territories to Britain that were drawn up in 1898 to last for 99 years. That was going to expire in 1997.

Going back to the 1950s and 1960s, large numbers of Chinese refugees fled to Hong Kong because of the fear of persecution by the Communists. As a result of those waves of migration, Hong Kong's population grew to millions even though it was only a little bigger than 1000 km^(2) in area. Under British colonial rule and China's reforms and opening up, Hong Kong flourished and lots of people became wealthy. In 1984, Chinese President Deng Xiaoping met with British Prime Minister Margret Thatcher and came up with the Joint Declaration. Britain created the British National (Overseas) passport which did not give the holder any rights in the UK. China promised that it would not change Hong Kong's political or economic system for 50 years after the 1997 handover. Also, owing to this special history, China made an exception for Hong Kong permanent residents: they do not have to obey Section 9 and their Chinese citizenship is not cancelled after they acquire foreign citizenship.

On June 4, 1989, large number of protesters in Beijing were murdered by the military. This instilled panic in the minds of Hong Kong residents. Many immigrated to Canada, the US and some to the UK. They acquired citizenship in the countries they immigrated to. Some of these people eventually came back to Hong Kong to live, knowing that if anything happened, they can flee back to their other country of citizenship virtually overnight because they are dual citizens.

On July 1, 2020, the 23rd anniversary of the handover, after the anti-extradition protests in 2019, the National Security Law was forced upon Hong Kong. The United Kingdom allowed BN(O) holders to get 5 year residence/work permits, after which they can apply for Indefinite Leave to Remain. 1 year after holding this status, they are eligible to apply for British citizenship. In 2024, the Hong Kong Legislative Council has passed Article 23, which went into effect on March 23, 2024. This further increases the number of offenses for which anyone who ever sets foot in Hong Kong, whether or not they are a permanent resident of Hong Kong or a citizen of China.

The scene:

It is Monday, July 1, 2047. Xi Jinping is about to celebrate his 94th birthday. He has been in power as the president-for-life of the People's Republic of China for 35 years. Owing to his mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese economy is irreversibly destroyed. Adding to those woes is that its population is now in freefall. It now loses 20 million people a year and this extreme loss of population is expected to continue for at least a decade. Despite this, the senile President Xi sees everyone who disagrees with him as a threat. Now that the 50 years has lapsed, with the rubber-stamping of the National People's Congress, he decides to order Hong Kong police to find dual citizens, arrest and deport them to the country of their other nationality after revoking their Chinese citizenship and Hong Kong permanent residency. When they are deported, border officers make notes on the computers banning them from entering China and Hong Kong for the remainder of their lives. In this case, because these people are citizens of the countries they are being deported to, the receiving countries have no choice but to let them back in. Canada is likely the most affected country as 300, 000 Hong Kong residents have Canadian citizenship in the 2010s. Even though some of them have died of old age, their children born outside of Canada will likely acquire Canadian citizenship by descent due to a court ruling in 2023. The United States has similar laws on the books where as long as a US citizen lived in the US for 5 years, at least 2 of which were when they were 14 or older, their child is a US citizen regardless of their place of birth.

If this scenario comes to pass:

  • How will the general public in Hong Kong react? Will it encourage more emigration? Or will the Great Firewall of China be imposed on Hong Kong by then, which causes people to not be able to receive outside information and think the deportees are rightfully punished?
  • How will the nations that are forced to accept the involuntary returnees react? Will this lead to sanctions against China? Will the returnees receive assistance to restart their lives (or, in the case of children who acquired citizenship by descent, immigrant settlement services in the country they may have never lived in even though they are citizens?)
1 Comment
2024/03/26
21:04 UTC

0

FWI a conservative leaning SCOTUS finds that the first amendment freedom of speech only applies to English language speech, and other languages can be banned in accordance with the constitution.

6 Comments
2024/03/26
00:05 UTC

4

FWI: Hero Kim Kun Ok is found adrift in either Japanese or American waters.

Hero Kim Kun Ok is the name given to North Korea's nuclear attack submarine (To my knowledge the latest of its kind North Korea has ever made).

Let us imagine the following alternate history: North Korea commissions a maiden voyage for Hero Kim Kun Ok, meant to test out its capabilities.

Unfortunately for North Korea, the voyage goes horribly wrong when all contact is lost with the submarine.

Sometime later (Either a few weeks or months later), Hero Kim Kun Ok is found adrift. I imagined different variations of the scenario:

  • Scenario A: Hero Kim Kun Ok is found adrift by a Japanese fishing boat in the Sea of Japan and reported to the Japanese military, who board the vessel.
  • Scenario B: Hero Kim Kun Ok is found adrift off the coast of Alaska and boarded by the US military.
  • Scenario C: Hero Kim Kun Ok is found adrift by the Russians off the coast of Siberia, who immediately investigate.
  • Scenario D: Hero Kim Kun Ok is found off the coast of China by the Chinese navy.

In all versions of the scenario, the entire crew is discovered to have died under mysterious circumstances.

How does North Korea respond to this Incident? How well can they cover it up and explain everything away? How does the US respond? Japan? South Korea? Russia? China?

Does this lead to a Second Korean War occurring?

2 Comments
2024/03/25
15:56 UTC

0

[FWI] Due to dwindling popularity, Benjamin Netanyahu is kidnapped a group of disgruntled Israeli soldiers and murdered, similar to what South Vietnamese soldiers did to their leader Ngô Đình Diệm.

Ngô Đình Diệm was first President of South Vietnam, who was tyrannical, corrupt and a hard-line Catholic who instituted severe discrimination against other religions. He was arrested, overthrown and murdered by his own soldiers. Diệm was killed not because the soldiers sympathised with the enemy, but rather because he was unpopular among the public, while the military saw his corruption and religious fundamentalism as hampering their war effort.

If Benjamin Netanyahu, for example, manages to dodge any corruption charges while continuing to be corrupt and potentially hamper Israel's war effort, what if he were to suffer the same fate as Ngô Đình Diệm?

  • Who would likely succeed Netanyahu?
  • How would this affect the outcome of the war in Gaza?
  • Would this lead to a reduction or an increase in aid for Israel?
13 Comments
2024/03/25
09:54 UTC

0

[FWI] A bomb threat is reported during Friday prayers at one of the UK's largest mosque in Bradford, England.

0 Comments
2024/03/25
08:36 UTC

1

[FWI] What would be the consequences to humanity if all emotional and physical pain was eradicated?

What would be the consequences to humanity if all emotional and physical pain was eradicated?

3 Comments
2024/03/25
07:30 UTC

1

[FWI] Challenge: Have Vladimir Putin redeem himself and be seen as a friend or neutral counterpart to Western nations.

This is inspired by the 2024 Russian election where Vladimir Putin claimed to get 88% of the vote. TBF, he might have really received 88% of the vote, considering that any realistic threat to his power was not allowed to run against him.

For this scenario, I don't mean "Trump gets voted back into power and sucks up to Putin". I mean have Putin do something good enough that Westerners who aren't Trump supporters would become neutral or supportive towards Putin.

6 Comments
2024/03/24
10:02 UTC

9

FWI: Russia abruptly ends the war in Ukraine, declares war on ISIS-K and invades Afghanistan once more.

Let's say Putin goes insane with rage in response to ISIS-K's attack on Moscow, orders a complete withdrawal from Ukraine (because fighting a two-front war is deemed impossible by military advisors), and instead directs Russian military forces to launch an invasion of Afghanistan, the first since the Soviet-Afghan War from 1979-1989.

Does this result in a bigger military disaster than the Soviet-Afghan War? Or do we see a War on Terror: Reloaded scenario?

6 Comments
2024/03/24
03:34 UTC

1

[FWI] In the wake of the Crocus City Hall attack, similar attacks occur in Grozny with smaller scale attacks in other parts of Chechnya

Similar to the aftermath of the Moscow attack, Russian state media blames Ukraine, ISIL claims responsibility. In the days and weeks following, infrequent but regular hit and run attacks occur, ranging from lone-wolf shootings, grenade attacks, and suicide bombings, to raids and occupations of police, military, and government buildings, sabotage, bombings, FPV drone attacks, and even small scale battles like in the Belgorod incursions.

1 Comment
2024/03/24
02:11 UTC

0

[FWI] A new conspiracy theory arises that Pine Gap exists to hide or exploit Lasseter's Reef

This is inspired by the video We Snuck Into a CIA Base In The Aussie Outback - the CIA base in question is Pine Gap.

Lasseter's Reef refers to an allegedly rich but lost gold deposit "discovered" by Harold Bell Lasseter in 1929. No one has since discovered the reef, and Lasseter himself died trying to lead other people to it. As such, the reef has become the stuff of legend in Australia, although some believe that the reef isn't actually real (and there's a possibility that they're right).

If such a new conspiracy theory were to arise, would it cause more people to make the dangerous trek into the desert to storm the CIA base and get to the gold?

2 Comments
2024/03/24
01:36 UTC

1

[FWI] An enormous fire engulfs parts of the Palace of Westminster in London, England "causing serious structural damage". As a result, it is decided that Birmingham will become the temporary base for Parliament until the Palace is fully refurbished.

0 Comments
2024/03/23
12:35 UTC

2

FWI: The TikTok Bill that bans TikTok becomes law.

What would happen to the millions of TikTok users in the USA? Do we see mass arrests of TikTok users? How will this new law be enforced?

4 Comments
2024/03/23
03:51 UTC

3

[FWI] Iran test-fires ICBM it says "can reach as far as London, England" as it restarts nuclear weapons program

2 Comments
2024/03/21
11:42 UTC

2

[FWI] The number of teams in the EPL is increased to 25, up from 20.

0 Comments
2024/03/21
10:38 UTC

0

FWI: A prion disease with the infection characteristics of COVID breaks out in Zimbabwe.

How do the skeptics fair on this one?

1 Comment
2024/03/20
15:25 UTC

4

FWI: Following Russia’s defeat in the Russo-Ukrainian war, Vladimir Putin is toppled from power as a result of the Valentine’s Day Revolution

It is February 14th, 2026. Vladimir Putin, who had been the president of Russia for 14 years now, is a leader of a nation in ruins, following his huge defeat in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

For the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia’s government is on the verge of collapse, caused by a massive recession brought on by the war, as well as massive unrest against the Russian leader. However, on Valentine’s Day, it all comes full circle.

During what would end up being Putin’s final speech, protesters in the crowd boo and jeer him, even shouting “Alexei!” in memory of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who died in prison two years prior. Unable to control the crowd, the protesters begin to storm the Kremlin. The SWAT teams guarding the building are no match for the armed protesters, causing them to retreat.

Meanwhile, Putin is able to evacuate Moscow, but is ordered by the Russian military to head to a military base just outside St. Petersburg. He is later captured and put on trial for the war crimes committed against Ukraine, as well as threatening to wage aggressive nuclear war against many western nations, including the United States. He is later found guilty and sentenced to execution by firing squad.

After the Valentine’s Day revolution, Russian democracy is finally restored to its former glory. The country’s first free and fair election takes place on April 20th, with Yekaterina Duntsova as the country’s new president, as well as the first female leader of Russia. Leaders around the world, including US President Joe Biden, congratulate the new Duntsova on her victory.

What happens next?

7 Comments
2024/03/19
22:09 UTC

2

[FWI] The Romanian Armed Forces joins forces with the Moldovan Armed Forces for a "special military operation" to liberate Transnistria from "Muscovite menaces"

Taking a page from Putin's speech in 2022, they state that anyone trying to interfere will face consequences unforeseen in their history

0 Comments
2024/03/19
21:07 UTC

0

FWI: Hackers seize both Kamala Harris & Joe Biden's Twitter accounts and makes them post threatening messages against Republicans in the government.

Basically a group of people remotely hijack the Twitter accounts of both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris and posts rhetoric against Republicans that makes them sound like Democrats versions of Trump in both of their names.

Does this turn a majority of Democrat voters against Biden during the 2024 election for good?

3 Comments
2024/03/19
21:06 UTC

1

FWI: A “deputized” militia group seizes control of the US-Mexico border.

It’s January 21, 2025, the first full day of the second Trump administration. Members of a right-wing paramilitary group, deputized by the president to patrol the border, have killed a migrant family. Video of the incident sparks outrage, sending local protesters swarming to ICE detention centers. Left-wing pro-immigrant groups begin arriving in border states to reinforce the protests, setting off clashes.

In response, the Democratic governors of New Mexico and Arizona mobilize National Guard units, ordering them to disperse the paramilitaries. But these groups, having been deputized by the president, are recognized under Articles I and II of the Constitution as legal militias. The commander of the New Mexico National Guard refuses orders from the governor, saying that migrants pose the true threat, not patriotic Americans defending their homes. The governor summarily relieves him of command. On his way out the door, the general pledges to “continue to follow the lawful commands of POTUS.”

[https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/03/war-game-constitution-trump-biden/677779/](adapted from this article)

6 Comments
2024/03/19
20:22 UTC

1

[FWI] Two RAF jets are scrambled rapidly to intercept "an unidentified aircraft rapidly approaching East Anglia" and both shockingly crash, killing the pilots.

0 Comments
2024/03/19
12:07 UTC

0

FWI challenge: Have there be a second Tianiman Square type of event in China in the next few years, but have this be more of a sucess then the 1989 one.

The challenge would be for a protest movement to occur much like in 1989, but to have it be more sucessful in it's goals then the 1989 one, which almost seems to be forgotten in China now, and even in the west.

  1. How does the Biden administration react to this new rebellion?

  2. How does China react?

  3. How does Russia react?

  4. If the rebellion is more of a sucess, does it result in 1. A reformist communist government, 2, a more western orinated Democratic Government, 3, a Neo Maoist government that ends up starting a new cultural revolution, or 4, a Falen Gong Government?

  5. What do things look like in China in a few years?

2 Comments
2024/03/19
03:31 UTC

3

[FWI] Explosions and gunfire occur at multiple military bases in Kaliningrad

A group calling themselves the Polish-Lithuanian United Front declares the explosions the first act of the return of Kaliningrad to their rightful historical owners and the "answer to the Kaliningrad question"

1 Comment
2024/03/18
12:06 UTC

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