/r/AsianSoccer
/r/AsianSoccer
Great Video with All Football National Teams of Asia.
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tmEXP5k2FGc
Blog: https://clubesmundofutbol.blogspot.com/2021/07/asian-cup-todas-las-selecciones-de-asia.html
With the AFC Cup being cancelled, there are no AFC country coefficients being calculated for 2020. I wanted to see the points that would have been earned from ACL 2020 East.
Country | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 16-19 total | 17-20 total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
🇨🇳 China | 14.75 | 24.567 | 16.2 | 17.35 | 12.85 | 72.867 | 70.967 |
🇯🇵 Japan | 10.5 | 21.85 | 13.85 | 21.8 | 16.3 | 68 | 73.8 |
🇰🇷 South Korea | 20.75 | 9.95 | 18.35 | 13.6 | 17.6 | 62.65 | 59.5 |
🇹🇭 Thailand | 1 | 15.05 | 16.2 | 5.05 | 5.9 | 37.3 | 42.2 |
🇦🇺 Australia | 14 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 6.233 | 29.8 | 22.033 |
AFC coefficients are calculated as a total over 4 years. The "2017-2020" total would be the "new" rankings. The change from the "old" ranking (2016-2019) can be as much down to 2016 dropping out of the total.
For 2020 I had to just ignore 🇲🇾 Malaysia due to JDT dropping out. JDT's withdrawal and having single-leg knockouts means there were less points on offer in total (you usually get points for a win/draw in each leg). I guess things were a little unfair in the groups, with some teams playing an away leg but never getting home advantage on a return fixture.
I found it weird that 🇯🇵 Kashima losing in the play-offs and so not making the group stage incurred essentially no penalty on Japan's coefficient - the year's points are an average of the teams that make the groups, so Japan's accumulated points were divided by 3, not by 4.
This also explains why 🇹🇭 Thailand and 🇦🇺 Australia have similar points for 2020 despite Australia having 3 teams in the groups (and 1 in the RO16) to Thailand's 1 team - average points in the 2020 group stage counts most for these nations. Only by reaching the knockouts en masse and/or with deep runs can you really make bank though, as you get bonus points for reaching each subsequent round.
Just out of curiousity, I calculated the points for each country from ACL 2020 using UEFA's method (which I'm sure has its own flaws) for comparison. UEFA's method gives a big bonus for being in the groups and also reaching the RO16, so we see 🇦🇺 Australia well clear of 🇹🇭 Thailand for 2020.
Country | 2020 AFC | 2020 UEFA |
---|---|---|
🇨🇳 China | 12.85 | 14.875 |
🇯🇵 Japan | 16.3 | 14.75 |
🇰🇷 South Korea | 17.6 | 18.125 |
🇹🇭 Thailand | 5.9 | 3.5 |
🇦🇺 Australia | 6.233 | 10.333 |
Before you celebrate or sink into misery about your favourite league's relative standing, remember that nearly every team had something to overcome to various degrees - injuries, COVID-induced absence, a surprising number of teenagers. And to end on a cynical note, it may be a coincidence that the better-funded teams tend to do better… but it's probably not.
🇨🇳China is China (although a salary cap is on the horizon), and 🇯🇵 Vissel Kobe have a player that according to some sources is the 7th-highest-paid player in the world. To put into perspective how bonkers that one salary is, it's a shade more than the combined wages (151 players) of the 4 highest-paying 🇰🇷 K League clubs for the 2019 season.
China is also still running their naturalisation program which skirts the 3+1 rule...
No doubt there are also some who look at the resources of the 🇹🇭 Thai League with envy - there's always a bigger fish. Thankfully there's always going to be dimishing returns on financial investment. Also, this is football, so there's always a chance for an upset.
Does which country have more points matter? No, not really. But a little bit yes. Here's the allocation for the 2021 (and 2022?) ACL, for spots directly into the group stage and play-off spots. In 2021 the ACL will expand from 4 to 5 groups of 4 teams in both East and West.
Country | 16-19 pts | Group stage | Play-off |
---|---|---|---|
🇨🇳 China | 72.867 | 3 | 1 |
🇯🇵 Japan | 68 | 3 | 1 |
🇰🇷 South Korea | 62.65 | 2 | 2 |
🇹🇭 Thailand | 37.3 | 2 | 2 |
🇦🇺 Australia | 29.8 | 1 | 2 |
🇵🇭 Philippines | 23.412 | 1 | 1 |
21.933 | 0 | 0 | |
🇻🇳 Vietnam | 20.819 | 1 | 0 |
🇲🇾 Malaysia | 19.645 | 1 | 0 |
🇸🇬 Singapore | 19.388 | 1 | 0 |
🇭🇰 Hong Kong | 14.533 | 1 | 0 |
🇲🇲 Myanmar | 9.295 | 0 | 1 |