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/r/Sunlight
Been busy this weekend trying to make sense of all these reports of discrepancies in the results of the Iowa Caucus. I just finished double checking my models, and wanted to share it.
To start, quick introduction.
I am an engineer. I don't have a political science background, but I am a Data Scientist at NASA. You may also know me as the person behind the Medicare for All Calculator
My challenge was this: Build a model that can take the Final counts per candidate, and calculate all discrepancies between the reported SDEs and what would be expected to be the actual SDEs.
Model (in Excel spreadsheet form): https://1drv.ms/x/s!Am_fv_2JmQAAgZh2QJJf1v9c30kNIw?e=MAOpIH
For those that want to play with it: Download it and look at each precinct on the Scenario tab.
I am working on making sure this can get in the right hands at the Iowa Democratic Party, and the relevant Campaigns, so if you know the contact that I need to reach out to, send me a private message.
In the end, these errors accounted for Pete Buttigieg getting +2.10 extra SDEs, and Bernie Sanders being shorted -4.44 SDEs. All other candidates were generally only +/- 1 SDE.
Sanders wins Iowa Caucus by: 5.03 (0.23%) SDEs
These account for 6.09 of the SDE error, the remaining errors roughly average each other out.
County | Precinct | Anomaly | Net Difference |
---|---|---|---|
Johnson | IOWA CITY 20 | Incorrect Rounding of Candidates | +0.81 SDEs for Buttigieg |
Johnson | IOWA CITY 14 | Incorrect Candidate Chosen during adjustment | +0.81 SDEs for Buttigieg |
Polk | DES MOINES-80 | Incorrect Rounding of Candidates | +0.5596 SDEs for Buttigieg |
Polk | WDM-212 | Incorrect Candidate Chosen during adjustment | +0.5596 SDEs for Buttigieg |
Warren | NORWALK 1 | Incorrect Candidate Chosen during adjustment | +0.4667 SDEs for Buttigieg |
Clinton | ELK RIVER HAMPSHIRE ANDOV | Unviable Candidate Given Delegates | +0.4428 SDEs for Sanders |
Linn | Marion 08 | Unviable Candidate Given Delegates | +0.4395 SDEs for Buttigieg |
Jefferson | Fairfield 4th Ward | Incorrect Candidate Chosen during adjustment | +0.4365 SDEs for Buttigieg |
Story | Grant Township | Incorrect Candidate Chosen during adjustment | +0.415 SDEs for Buttigieg |
Story | Ames 3-1 | Incorrect Candidate Chosen during adjustment | +0.415 SDEs for Buttigieg |
Scott | (DH) City of Donahue | Incorrect Candidate Chosen during adjustment | +0.4133 SDEs for Buttigieg |
Scott | (BF) City of Buffalo | Incorrect Candidate Chosen during adjustment | +0.4133 SDEs for Buttigieg |
Scott | (D34) City of Davenport | Unviable Candidate Given Delegates | +0.4132 SDEs for Buttigieg |
Johnson | IOWA CITY 19 | Incorrect Rounding of Candidates | +0.405 SDEs for Buttigieg |
Johnson | NL06/MADISON /CCN | Incorrect Candidate Chosen during adjustment | +0.405 SDEs for Sanders |
Johnson | CEDAR TOWNSHIP | Incorrect Candidate Chosen during adjustment | +0.405 SDEs for Buttigieg |
Johnson | IOWA CITY 08 | Incorrect Candidate Chosen during adjustment | +0.405 SDEs for Buttigieg |
Johnson | CORALVILLE 02 | Removed last Delegate from candidate during Adjustment | +0.405 SDEs for Buttigieg |