Hello everyone,

I'm new to this sub. I'm a French retail investor, passionate about macro economics, market analysis and the stock market. I have a blog where I share my Data for free (I have nothing to sell).

Last week I finished my monthly consolidation of many Data : Gdp, Job Market, PMIs, Monetary Policies, ... for the EZ (EZ total + France + Germany + Italy partly) and the US.

All the site is available in English, French, German, Italian, Spanish.

👉 Read more here:

• Eurozone Analysis
• US Economic Insights

Let me know in the comments if this is of any help/interest.

These are some of the Data availables in the articles :

https://preview.redd.it/qrczhh13owud1.png?width=959&format=png&auto=webp&s=139317670666d36c81d1d96e5e80c2a5591ab66d

https://preview.redd.it/js3925o5owud1.png?width=926&format=png&auto=webp&s=f0111b34b590e875a2e2f0740d67efe57a61dbac

Have a great day.

Macro data from Europe has generally been better than expected in recent weeks. GDP in the Eurozone rose a healthy 0.3% in Q1, or 1.3% annualized, after a 0.1% decline in Q4 2023.

The recovery seems to have continued in Q2, with the overall business confidence index in the Eurozone jumping from 50.3 in March to 51.7 in April, mainly driven by the service sector and especially the Southern European countries, led by Spain. But even Germany is back in positive growth. However, European industry continues to report a decline.

https://preview.redd.it/dz64gi2qylzc1.png?width=903&format=png&auto=webp&s=1781bf7049ec63a16968b9440147f2c97df6bc71

https://preview.redd.it/slcozaeoylzc1.png?width=777&format=png&auto=webp&s=bb23f5d9359708ca69e85b3ceb039dc82100f308

At the same time, inflation was unchanged at 2.4% in April and core inflation was 2.7%.

https://preview.redd.it/m61ers0tylzc1.png?width=903&format=png&auto=webp&s=f42486986b9882b9670457c7eaad96f9b2b8a710

https://preview.redd.it/hfjwohqtylzc1.png?width=903&format=png&auto=webp&s=9819d46541f7fab7a182020e8ea93432bc8e0c0e

CONCLUSION:

There are low expectations for the macro situation in Europe this year, so the data is better than most people expect and the expectation is that the ECB may cut interest rates in a few months. How much they might cut interest rates is more uncertain, as companies in the service sector are again reporting a need for labor, which could increase wage pressure and make it harder to get inflation back below 2%

• I am a writer for the "Earlybird Research & Education." Newsletter which is written in both danish and english. Sign Up Here: https://frankhvid.dk/nyhedsbrev/

Hello, we are a group of psychology researchers from the University of Kent, UK. It would be a huge help if anyone from any background who is interested would fill out our quick survey (18+ years old only) about your views of politics, society, and more.

Fill out the survey here: https://universityofkent.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_8ICkX7mBre5IGpM

We are posting here because we hope to collect responses from a wide range of political perspectives and backgrounds. Please let us know if you would like a summary of your responses in comparison to others once the data collection is complete.

The survey takes 15-30 minutes to complete, and we are happy to respond to any queries or questions. Please private message us to avoid giving away the point of the study to others.

Thanks for your time.

Edit: The survey is now closed! Thank you very much for your time, we will be sure to post the results up here when they're ready.

Eurozone GDP increased a marginal 0.1% from Q3 to Q4 2023 and has hardly grown for almost 1½ years (see graph below). Germany and, more recently, France are the main drags on growth. Upwards are Spain and the smaller countries in the Eurozone.

​

https://preview.redd.it/bnyzer3dmkgc1.png?width=903&format=png&auto=webp&s=786a6bc44f54da6f55832721a3446535aa626e9c

The latest economic barometers (abbreviated PMI) for the European economy in January make for somewhat gloomy reading with a few bright spots (see graphs below).  The worst is the French economy, which has gone from bad to really bad in both industry and the service sector. The German figures are slightly less miserable in January, but on top of that, there are new drops in consumer confidence. However, the UK's barometer is showing better signs and the ratio of new orders to stocks suggests positive growth soon.

​

https://preview.redd.it/lsydzhdfmkgc1.png?width=577&format=png&auto=webp&s=de5a36c5316ef7c03774d058045b3976eca279f5

CONCLUSION:

France has taken over from Germany as Europe's sick economy - or rather complemented it. Fortunately, the barometers for the smaller European countries are looking better. But this creates a dilemma for the ECB: cut interest rates because of the two big weak giants France and Germany or keep rates up because of the better performing smaller economies?

Considering that the Eurozone as a whole has probably been in recession in the second half of 2023 (see graph above) and again perhaps also here in Q1 2024, the decision should not be that difficult. Economists expect 100 bps (= 1%) in interest rate cuts this year (see table), the bond market is pricing in around 150 bps. The development of wage growth will be crucial (see below).

​

https://preview.redd.it/qegv5j5imkgc1.png?width=1349&format=png&auto=webp&s=5a5d04a90f628477a9274b893d0c58e8ed368545

- I am a writer for the "Earlybird Research & Education." Newsletter which is written in both danish and english. Sign Up Here: https://frankhvid.dk/nyhedsbrev/

1. E.g. Owned by European Financial Stability Facility as an equity arm
2. Facilitate or form public-private partnership on building connected infrastructure (e.g. hydrogen pipe, new grids, web3 hardware, etc).
3. Listed in European stock exchange to enable public oversight
4. Forbid localized union, shared compensation system. It should aim for ensuring that builders' tasks can operate at a similar condition among member nations
5. Modularize connected infra based on country border. In event of exiting, bid the country module to private entities

Would like to know your feedback

I mean both to shrink or to expand to get there.

It is hard to collectively manage a monetary system when trade, fiscal practice, productivity, and other essentials cannot be aligned. On the other hand, it takes public resources to maintain a tightly bounded trade union where member nations may never want a common currency.

In forming a joint monetary system that is as powerful as Euro, individual nations give up their ability to issue currency. Powerful alliance come with big responsibility. And problems will arise when productivities and policies among nations are too different.

More joint development (strong together), upfront methodologies to normalize things (strong helps weak), straightforward exit when repeatedly fail (cannot be too weak), only joint voting will enable an exit by free will (mutual respect), should enable a stronger Eurozone's unity. Also, one can form different non-bounding alliances to help nations to get onboard to the union.