Survey Results

Edgic Chart

Episode Rating: 8.18

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Full disclosure, I decided to do a semi-rewatch of the season up to this point because I was in the camp feeling that Rachel's "winning edit" was a bit obvious. I call it a semi-rewatch because it was a biased viewing looking for things that would support a Sam victory. The 2-part finale editing also intrigued me, and although Jeff did say this is how they had decided they were going to split the season/episodes because of CBS' request for 14 episodes, the movie fan in me thinks about Part 1 of Avengers Infinity War/Endgame where maybe Rachel is Thanos before the hero comes out on top in the end.

TLDR

-Glue guy confessional is not a negative. You need the glue guy in team sports and tribal immunity, but Survivor is still an individual game. Sam says the glue guy “find their way somewhere in the middle,” which he was as the lynchpin in Gata’s two pre-merge tribals. He also says “if you keep the glue guy too long in this game, you end up getting burned by them.” Not voting Sam out when you have the opportunity is detriment to everyone else’s chances.

-Sam’s opening confessional still is him ending with “I’m a wolf in wolves’ clothing*.”* Contrast that with S45 zero-vote finalist Jake saying “I’m a wolf in goat’s clothing” when he found his immunity idol. Wolves will stay in packs, until they are able to go off on their own. This happens after Sierra gets voted out when he says *“*Gata is no more. Gata got ‘got,’ and now it’s every man for themselves.**” Turning on allies to further himself does not matter because at the loved ones reward he says “my loyalty is to the people writing these letters.”

-After Sierra is voted out, Sam constantly reminds the audience that he still has a pulse. EP9: “right now their only mistake was keeping me in the game.” In EP12 he says “as long as I’m on this island, I’m going to fight.” In EP13 when referencing Genevieve and Rachel’s win equity: “we’ll see about that, If I have anything to say about it, that’s not going to happen.”

-Keeping Andy in the pre-merge was essential to Sam’s survival in multiple ways: Andy reveals to Sam about the breadwinners’ alliance, in EP9 Andy tells Sam that he spent social capital making sure the boot was Sierra and not him, a key part of Operation Italy and shifting Rachel’s target off of Sam and booting Andy at F6.

-Rachel has acknowledged multiple times the danger that Sam presents to her game. Rachel questions giving Sam information in the Sol boot, but still does. In EP10 she says “every opportunity that I give Sam to not lie to me or screw me over in some way, he still does.” In EP11 Rachel says “my best options in this game are a playing field that doesn’t include Genevieve, Sam or Kyle,” but Sam might sit next to her in the finale. In EP13 Rachel tells Andy: “I think Sam has better relationships and I think that I would lose votes to him, even if I sat next to him.”

-Sam’s game is reliant on relationships, which has allowed him to keep a perfect voting record (albeit with two no-vote tribals). Opening confessional he says “I’m versatile enough to fit into different groups of people.” In EP2 when talking about Andy he says “relationships and lines of communication are key.” In the Kyle boot he realizes he doesn’t have the numbers and says “I might have to just go with the group once again, and that sucks, but that’s the game.”

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Episode 1 wastes no time putting Sam front and center in front of our TV screens

"I think I am dangerous in Survivor. I have what it takes physically, but I’m versatile enough to fit into different groups of people. You don’t find a guy who looks like me be super unsuspecting. It’s often the people that say ‘Oh I’m a wolf in sheep’s clothing… I’m a wolf in wolves' clothing."

Two important things at the jump. We see images of Sam playing baseball and theater while he says he is versatile. This sets up Sam's game of building relationships as well as allowing him the ability to have a perfect voting record.

He also says he is a wolf in wolf in wolves' clothing. Contrast this with zero-vote finalist Jake saying in S45 that he is a wolf in goat's clothing after finding his immunity idol. At the end of the day, there is only one winner. Wolves will stay in packs and help each other out, but at some point, they will break off and do their own thing.

The next important confessional that Sam has is the "glue guy" one.

“I love Anika taking the leadership role, mainly because I don’t want it. I want to be the glue guy, every sports guy knows what a glue guy is, they're not the best on the team, they're not the worst on the team, they find their way somewhere in the middle but somehow the team doesn’t function the same without them…It’s the guy in a friend group that it’s like once he’s there you feel like 'hey the whole group is here', but I think if you keep the glue guy too long in this game, you end up getting burned by them.”

Glue guys are important in team sports and during the tribal phase when you need to win immunity. Sam does this successfully at Gata and positions himself in the middle during the Jon and Anika boots. But Survivor is not a team sport. It's an individual game and Sam lets us know that if you keep him in the game, your chances of winning will dwindle. Even when Sierra gets voted out later in the game, Sam constantly makes reminders that he still has a pulse and a fighting chance.

Episode 2 sees Sam get a record amount of confessionals as it sets up the Andy relationship as well as further illustrates that he is the glue guy at Gata. I'll talk about the latter first. Anika helps Sam with his idol hunt before Rachel also gets involved with helping to dig up a key before Sam saves the final part for a moment to be shared with Sierra. Andy also laters comes up to him to say that the Beware Advantage is gone. The one-tribal idol hunt showed the handle he has on the dynamics at Gata.

Now to the Andy relationship. Which is Sam's most important relationship throughout the game, not Sierra and not Genevieve.

“Andy is an odd ball and it would be very easy for me to kick Andy to the curb, but in sports reporting, relationships and lines of communication are key.”

“I want to be Andy’s buoy in an ocean where he feels like he’s drowning. If I can have Andy feeling like he can come to me with information, that allows me options because you never know when the athlete who’s at the bottom of the totem pole is at the top of the totem pole because they’re the hero in the game."

Sam does not progress further in the game without Andy surviving the pre-merge as evident in Andy's role in Operation Italy and shifting the target away from Sam and onto himself at the Final 6. In Episode 9 after Sierra is voted out, Andy also tells Sam: "Today the target was square on your back, and I spent some social capital I just gained to make sure it was Sierra and not you…I blindsided you, but I wanted you here this entire time.”

In Episode 4 when Andy's shot-in-the-dark falls out of his bag, Sam has this long confessional.

“Sure enough Andy the one guy who might need his shot in the dark, somehow allowed it to fumble out of his bag…right now I’m a little bit of a mentor to Andy’s game, I’m just showing him how to play subtle Survivor, he just needs a little guidance is all, I think we’re still working on it, big work in progress but he’s a bit of a clumsy player at times…Andy is kind of like Survivor George Constanza he can’t get out of his own way… everything Andy does he should do the exact opposite of whatever he thinks is the right thing to do. Im just trying to make sure that I’m always one step ahead of him and that he’s always coming back with to me with the information. As long as he’s doing that Andy can stay around in my book.”

If Andy is George Costanza, does that make Sam Jerry Seinfeld?

Sierra also calls Andy a sloppy player, while being sloppy herself and divulging the breadwinner's alliance name, which Andy tells Sam about which leads to some alliance drama and this confessional by Sam.

“Sierra thinks Andy needs to go at the next tribal council, and uh that ain’t going to work for me. Keeping Andy is absolutely essential to my game.”

Sam and Andy do have a falling out after Andy was the backup vote in the Rome boot, but they do make up and work together for Operation Italy.

“There are probably four people at camp that are not thrilled with me right now, but I knew I was going to choose Andy before the challenge even started because I feel like I do owe Andy, a little bit…and Genevieve and I have felt like we are on the bottom so giving her the emotional support of letters from home, easy no brainer.”

When Andy shares information about Rachel's block-a-vote, we get a callback to Episode 2 by Sam.

“Andy is my hero, this is what Genevieve and I have been waiting for, it’s time to get the band back together to take out Rachel.”

Although Rachel was able to save herself, Andy flipping to join Operation Italy was set up by Sam's efforts from earlier in the season.

Now back to the wolf and glue guy comments. Once Sierra is voted out, tribal lines are done. Sam is playing for himself because there is only one winner.

I really liked this quote from the family letters' episode.

“It gives me a lot of confidence in who I am as person, it’s what I needed to remind myself, my loyalty is to the people writing these letters.”

Going back to the episode after Sierra is voted out, this is what Sam had to say in confessional.

“Tribal council tonight was horrible. Rachel and I get blindsided, Sierra gets sent home and we happen to lose Andy in the process so Gata is no more, Gata got got, and now, it’s every man for themselves…

Tonight both Andy and Lavo flipped on Gata, it was a brilliant acting job, like across the board. These people had me fooled. Right now their only mistake was keeping me in the game.”

I do want to point out that in the previous episode, Caroline does say in a confessional that her and Genevieve sees the Gata as threats and that "Sam is an obvious choice." Yet, the obvious choice says it was a mistake keeping him in the game.

What's interesting that even though Sam tells us in confessional that he is coming for revenge, Teeny still trusts Sam enough to want to work with him and we also get this confessional from Sol.

“I was a part of that blindside against Sam, but I like Sam’s mentality, he’s not getting emotional, he’s not getting pissed…and so the fact that Sam’s telling me hey I get it, it’s all good, Its like ok, maybe I can work with this guy.”

I question if the chaos part before the episode hurts Sam's edit, but we do have Sol saying he wants to work with Sam, so maybe Sam trying to save Sol is supposed to be perceived as a good thing, especially with Rachel showing hesitancy to work with Sam in a later confessional. More on Rachel's thoughts on Sam later.

Sam does not get his intended target of Sue during the chaos he caused, but we did get eight confessionals across seven different individuals after Sam's last confessional, some of which appear to be shot the following day because of the natural lighting. Interesting to include that many for what ultimately was a straightforward vote.

During Episode 10, Sam gets some momentum during the Gabe vote and builds trust with Andy and Teeny, even though he tells us they shouldn't.

“I think I have established a little bit of trust maybe with Andy and Teeny to potentially work together. I might burn them tomorrow in fact I probably will so they can’t trust me but I want them to.”

It does have a villainous vibe, but ultimately is a strong social move because this was Teeny's immediate confessional afterwards.

“I never thought I’d say it but I’m interested in working with Sam. I think Sam kind of finds himself in a similar position as me, he’s lost somebody he’s was super close to, he’s been blindsided, right now I’m trying to latch onto anything that’s available.”

Sam later is able to reflect about giving up his shot-in-the-dark for rice before calling his shot against Gabe which would come out to be successful.

“I did not want to give up my shot in the dark for rice, I kind of know where I stand in the tribe, I know that my name is frequently tossed around as somebody who can go…But I feel cautiously optimistic about my place in the game because I’ve started to get the ball rolling on this alliance that can really take control of the game...

Gabe is such a threat in this game because he is the leader of Tuku, and once you get Gabe, you kind of blow up this Tuku alliance.”

Two more Tukus, Kyle and Caroline would get voted out in back-to-back tribals after Gabe was ousted.

In Episode 11, I really like this confessional from Sam because he shows an understanding of his changing position in different parts of the game.

“The beginning of this game I was deceptive, I was a liar, I was in control and that’s how I kind of kept my power. After Sierra got voted out I had all of my power in this game stripped from me. Since then I’ve had to pivot my approach and really come to people with full open honesty, and that’s when they first start to trust you. Who would have thought that just telling the truth would work pretty well on Survivor sometimes.”

Later in the same episode, Sam says why he wants to keep Kyle, but acknowledges that it might not happen, which helps him keep his perfect voting record streak.

“It is not good for my game to get Kyle out of here. As soon as Kyle is gone, everybody that’s looking at Kyle is looking at Sam, and it’s way too early to have everybody looking at Sam…the problem tonight is getting one of the other five players in the tribe on board to save Kyle I don’t know if the numbers are there… so I might have to just go with the group once again, and that sucks, but that’s the game.”

Sam also gets to comment about Kyle getting voted out in the next episode while still reminding the audience that he is still alive in the game.

“Having Kyle was a really really useful shield, but there was really nothing I could have done. I was kind of powerless tonight because there is a posse of five players Andy, Teeny, Rachel, Sue and Caroline picking off the big threats one at a time…Genevieve and I are in a really tight spot but this game is not over for us yet, and as long as I’m on this island I’m going to fight.”

That same train of thought also came up again at Final 5 when Genevieve and Rachel think that they are the top two players.

“Genevieve and Rachel have been talking about how they’re the two best players one of them is surely going to win the season. Ok, we’ll see about that. If I have anything to say about it, that’s not going to happen.”

Now back to idea that Sam is a foil to Rachel's chances. She questions in confessional on whether or not she should tell Sam about the plan to vote out Sol, before later confirming it to him and it backfire into chaos before tribal.

“I am now an underdog in this game, so as much as I owe Sol for sending me the advantage, I am genuinely torn, but even more importantly I don’t know if I should let Sam in on the vote, this tribal is my opportunity to show these new allies that I am with them and they can count on me.”

Rachel and Sam are able to go on a reward with Kyle at the Final 9 and she acknowledges that Sam is a danger to her game.

“Sam and I were really able to hash it out during this reward, but I feel like every opportunity that I give Sam to not lie to me or screw me over in some way, he still does.”

Sam is actually pretty chill towards Rachel at the Final 9. We see her earlier in the episode trusting Andy, but we are told that's not supposed to be a good idea because Andy calls himself a "slithering snake" and describes himself like a pendulum as he tries to get in good with Kyle and calls Teeny his No. 1 before trying to get Rachel to target Genevieve.

With the formation of the underdog alliance at the Final 8, Rachel has this confessional.

“I am trying to build a group to go to the end with. I think my best options in this game are a playing field that doesn’t include Genevieve, Sam or Kyle, I think the remaining five players we all have a fighting chance against each other if it comes down to the five of us at the end.”

Kyle goes out at 8 and Genevieve at 5, but will she have to sit next to Sam at the end?

At the Final 6 she also tells Andy the following statement.

“I think Sam has better relationships and I think that I would lose votes to him, even if I sat next to him.”

Of course, Andy decides to talk up his game and shift the target onto him, which leaves Sam, a viable jury threat in Rachel's eyes, still in the game.

Rachel is also assumes that Genevieve's idol is real at the Final 5, but keeps the vote on Genevieve after Sam reveals to Teeny that the idol is fake.

So can Sam beat Rachel in a final tribal council scenario? That's a tough call.

Out of the seven current jury members, the only possible votes I could think of for Sam would be Sierra, Sol, Andy and Genevieve, but even those names could still swing Rachel's way.

We shall find out soon enough.

I know this is an unlikely outcome, and there aren't direct edit hints that this is the case, but it seems like this outcome could help explain a few editing questions we have.

Let's say both Rachel and Sam make it to Final Tribal. While many people seem to think Rachel would have a blowout victory, it is also easy to see that Sam would potentially have several votes on the jury: Sierra, Kyle, Genevieve. Rachel likely has other votes locked down: Caroline, Sue/Teeny (whichever one is eliminated in fire in this scenario), and maybe Sol. While I think Gabe might lean Rachel, we can't know for sure, and same with Andy. I think there's definitely a world where Sam ends up with 4 votes and Rachel ends up with 4 votes.

Someone else pointed this out earlier, but it seems that in the New Era, the trend has been that the winners who win by smaller margins get more obvious edits (Dee, Kenzie). This might not actually be a trend in editing style but just a new era trend over time, but I think it would make sense for Rachel's huge edit to be featured in this season if the outcome is really close. Let's be honest, Rachel has NOT played a flashy game or over-the-top manipulative game, so the editors really don't NEED to be giving her as big of an edit as they are. I like to also think that the editors would want to leave some suspense in the finale. HOWEVER, if the final outcome is a tie, it makes complete sense that they have built up Rachel so much. Survivor producers have seen how the fandom discounts under-edited female winners, especially when there is a viable challenger, so they need us to see Rachel coming to make sure we're satisfied.

Of course, in the tie scenario, Rachel would win, as either Teeny or Sue (whichever one makes it to final tribal) will give her the tie-breaking vote. Rachel wins, the viewers understand why she wins, and her big edit makes sense.

I know this is nowhere from certain, but it's an idea. I know some people think the outcome will be a Rachel steamroll, but I'm hesitant to assume that, because there is really not going to be any suspense in the finale if it is.

Bruh none of you had her on their radar until the episode she did the SITD stunt

What was that more than halfway mark

Even after that you guys were debating among 3 names, could be more if you didn't knew the gender of the winner

Yes now she's the only choice left

But come on stop this hyperbole, saw so many posts here and on the main sub, crying about how it's the most obvious winner

So we all know that Rachel obviously wins. If she doesn’t, then this season will be the most oddly edited season in the shows history.

So the big argument for Sam actually winning was that why split the finale when Genevieve was clearly the final boss for Rachel.. but the debunk is that CBS ordered the split final well in advance.

So my question then is… why did they focus so much on Genevieve as the final boss, and why didn’t they push Sam more? Was the editing mostly done before CBS ordered the split finale?

It’s not that Sam got a bad edit or anything, but it’s definitely not close to a winners edit at all. Knowing it was going to be split to two episodes with gen going out in the penultimate, why didn’t they push Sam more?

Eagle eyed viewers would see through it, but for casual fans, there would be a lot more drama going into the last episode.

You could make an argument for Sue the same way.. she was built up a lot premerge, but she became a super goat at the merge, so that would be a hard sell.

The only thing I can think of, is that they were avoiding a “XaNDeR wAS RobBeD” scenario, where the casuals get mad that Rachel somehow stole the win from the golden boy… but if that’s the case, they produced the most telegraphed winner of the new era

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Rachel

I’ve seen the theory about the intro having a close ally of each of a potential final 3 looking up at the flying bats (Aysha for Teeny, Anika for Rachel, and Caroline for Sue) and in the final episode sneak peek that was recently released there’s a shot of Rachel looking up at the sky intercut with a shot of flying bats. None of the other three’s confessionals has anything like that. And actually, it’s not even her confessional shot. It’s her voiceover of a shot of her sitting alone on the beach.

I’m sure it’s probably not actually related to the intro theory, but I think it could still be a cool nod to her being the winner, since bats are the symbol of the season.

I can’t believe Survivor 47 is ending! This season has felt so long, but in a good way; like, remember when Sierra was still a contender?! I have absolutely LOVED this season; it is my second favorite New-Era season. It’s probably the best objectively, but I will forever be a 45’s most delusional obsessive stan. This cast will be remembered as one of the strongest newbie casts ever, strategically, and nearly everyone was decently entertaining at one point during the season! The edit this season was so fun to follow, and I’ve loved making my sloppy written write-ups the entire season!!! Anyway, onto the final predictions!!!

🦇Fourth Place (Forced Fire Making Loser) : Teeny.🦇

Forced fire making has never been so up in the air for me; I genuinely don’t know who’ll be making fire, but I’m sure that whoever is there will be defeating Teeny. Teeny is the only member of the final four that has had some fire foreshadowing, with their bag catching on fire. We’ve also seen Teeny confidently think she can beat Rachel at the game, but this can also potentially be a firemaking foreshadowing, and their weird outburst against Sam a few episodes ago; Teeny’s edit has had little bits of foreshadowing loss, and I think it’s leading up to them losing fire.

I don’t really know how/why Teeny of all people is put into fire. I’m guessing it has something to do with their relationships on the jury; Teeny’s been shown to be connected to Sierra, Sol, and Genevieve.

Here’s my guess on who’ll be in fire-making based on who wins immunity.

– Rachel Wins Final Immunity.

I think Rachel will take Sue, rewarding her loyalty and concluding their storyline/relationship together that was started a few episodes ago. Sam and Teeny are in fire, and Sam beats Teeny, but it isn’t enough to save his winning chances.

I could also see Rachel picking Sam to deny him a big move in front of the jury, like how Dee took Austin in 45.

– Sam Wins Final Immunity.

I think Sam bites the bullet and puts himself into fire against Rachel. Sam would likely lose; we’ve been told that Rachel is the best fire maker, and her edit is just too good. lol.

He could potentially throw himself into fire against someone else maybe. I’m not denying the possibility of Sam putting himself into fire against Teeny.

– Sue Wins Final Immunity.

Sue winning yields the most possibilities. Sue could put Rachel and Sam into fire, “waking up” and making a huge game move against her ally.

She could take Rachel rewarding her loyalty. Sue has been an extremely loyal player and has refused to turn on all of her allies. Teeny and Sam are in fire; Sam wins.

– Teeny Wins Final Immunity.

Teeny definitely puts Sam and Rachel into Fire; Rachel wins based off of fire ability and having a better edit. Teeny has been horrible in the challenges; this is the least likely outcome. (no hate)

Overall, I think most fire-making challenges end with Teeny going home. I’m leaning towards Rachel winning Final Immunity and taking Sue but have Sam putting himself into fire against Teeny as a second sneaky option.

🦇Third Place: Sue🦇

Sue is our zero-vote finalist! I think everyone’s trying to take Sue to the end; she hasn’t really done much in the game besides be a loyal ally, and I don’t think the jury will respect that compared to scrappy underdog Sam and over-dog/underdog Rachel.

Edit-wise, Sue’s edit reminds me of other zero-vote finalists of the new era. She had a good premerge and then just completely fell off the face of the earth, like Ben, Romeo, and Xander. (from what I can remember) Sue had a way better pre-merge than all of the people I just mentioned but had the hardest falloff.

I think this is a pattern to watch out for: the zero-vote finalists/third placer will have a solid pre-merge, building them up when it’s least important, solidifying them in the audience's mind before abandoning them at the merge when it’ll become clear that they are no longer important. There are some exceptions to this rule, Jake and mainly Carolyn, but I chock this up to them being big characters and both of the winners being more traditionally dominant.

Anyway, I really liked Sue this season and was even a Sue truther for the first 6 episodes. I’m happy Sue made it so far playing an older school, loyal game. Good for Sue!

🦇Runner up: Sam🦇

After being convinced he’d be 7th or 6th and even 5th place at one point, I’m officially locking Sam in as my pick for runner-up. The finale can’t be too obvious, and Sam has been a consistent enough presence that he could pose some sort of danger to Rachel to the casuals and even some of edgic.

I don’t understand the Sam truthers at all. Sam’s edit has never reached its episode two-three heights again. I think all of his negativity from mid pre-merge to very early merge tells us that Sam won’t win. His edit has been getting better and better since around mid-merge, but it still isn’t great. Sam’s content is substance over quality, and that’s not disrespect to Sam; he’s been consistently entertaining and rootable, but comparing his edit to Rachel’s and its different universes of quality. The main point against Sam is that his narrative isn’t nearly as clear as Rachel’s; while his position has been known, his overall story has been ignored, which is really bad considering how good Sam’s story is on paper. Going from a dominant position on his starting tribe to getting blindsided in the early merge and playing a scrappy underdog game ever since. Sam's story is very similar to Rachel's, but Rachel has received better content around it, showcasing that Rachel's story is the main story of the season. And his relationships aren’t as well known as Rachel’s.

Overall, I think Sam is totally lacking edit-wise compared to Rachel. That being said, I think Sam has played a really solid game and has been so fun to watch all season long. His big edit is definitely justified; with a whole 90 minutes to kill, Sam’s gonna have a huge finale, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Sam ended up with 90-95 confessionals by the end of the season. Expecting to see Sam on 50 (if he is available), where I think he’ll go far again.

🦇The Winner of Survivor 47: Rachel🦇

I’ve had it pegged for a couple of weeks, and I’m ready to watch it come to fruition; Rachel is going to win Survivor 47! Rachel has everything. The edit lets her explain and react to everything that involves her; she’s got a confessional in every episode, some of the strongest SPV...ever, her relationships are decently fleshed out, and she has a strong storyline. It’s been clear for a while; I don’t think there’s any other possibility. Rachel is the winner of Survivor 47.

Rachel has played a very unique game for the New Era; she’s been a threat since the beginning of the merge, has used advantages to navigate the game, and has been a physical threat while being a savvy social player. I think as a player, Rachel is one of the best we’ve gotten in all of the New Era; but her winning game doesn’t give her amazing game ability the credit it will deserve.

I could honestly see Rachel winning unanimously, but I’m leaning towards a 7-1-0 vote, with Sam getting a single vote. I think a Rachel win is going to be really healthy for the series and specifically the New Era. The stereotypical New-Era under-the-radar threat to late-game peak isn’t the only viable option anymore. Congratulations, Rachel! 🦇

clearing out my camera roll and found my 41 edgic contenders. i was sooooo unserious 😭😭😭

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Going into last week’s episode, I had Rachel at a commanding 92%, with Andy and Genevieve taking the rest of the remaining win equity. Since Wednesday I’ve considered two options: (1) Give Rachel 100%, or (2) give her 99%, and revive one of Sam, Sue, or Teeny and give them 1%. It may only be a very slight difference, but it’s more of a philosophical question: Do I even entertain the possibility that Rachel doesn’t win?

As you may have guessed from the title, I went with option 1. If I’m wrong I’m wrong, but this season just doesn’t make sense at this point if anyone besides Rachel wins. What follows below are the main points in her favor for why she is the winner of Survivor 47. As always, let me know what you think! 

Our introduction to her: 

She didn’t have a speaking role before the first challenge or the first commercial break. This was a red flag for many including myself, as every previous New Era winner has had one. A sample size of 6 isn’t that great though, and she had the first camp confessional right afterwards:

This is the best moment of my life. I love competition and I love to win. We solved that puzzle 100% because of good communication. It was a community effort, full stop.

Rachel mentions loving to win, foreshadows her puzzle prowess, and attributes Gata’s win to one of the most ubiquitous themes of the season. It was a short but sweet winner quote. During the challenge before this quote, she also got a special focus leading the construction of that puzzle.

This is the latest introduction we’ve had for a New Era winner, but at 17 minutes, it’s still pretty darn early for a nearly 86 minute premiere episode. I think it’s probably just the case that this confessional was much better than any of the ones they could have used as an intro confessional, so they used it for her introduction instead of the conventional speaking role before the first commercial.

Her recontextualized premiere: 

As a whole I overlooked Rachel’s premiere content because it is mostly about Andy rather than herself. However, it’s the type of premiere that, when you rewatch it later - particularly after Sierra’s boot - makes so much more sense.

Rachel’s premiere is about trying to work with Andy, but deciding to keep her distance. She could have easily been Andy’s number one if she wanted to but she instead exercises caution after he shows conclusively to her and the audience that he’s too eager and sloppy to work with. We later see Sam and Sierra take him in as an extra vote. This ultimately blows up in both their faces, ending Sierra’s game and leaving Sam on the bottom and largely ineffective until Operation Italy. 

Of course, no one had to rewatch the premiere to make this connection. In Episode 9 we’re treated to a flashback of various scenes between the two, including many from the premiere. They wouldn’t have done this if it wasn’t important. Rachel’s content in the premiere may have seemed to be all about Andy, but it was more so about her smartly avoiding working with a player who would go on to be a liability to his allies. 

A low-key pre-merge protected her well: 

Rachel had a fairly quiet pre-merge after the premiere. After episode 5, her confessional count put her tied as the median confessional getter among the players remaining. However, half of her confessionals (7 out of 14) came in the premiere, meaning she had just 7 confessionals in those 4 non-premiere pre-merge episodes. From episode 2 to 5, Rachel had the least confessionals of all 13 players remaining at the conclusion of episode 5. In addition, rather than having her own story, her role was largely just in support of the stories of Sam, Andy, and Sierra.

Usually, getting so little screen time is a red flag. The only exception really is if the edit is protecting the player in question. Rachel thought she had a solid 3 with the Breadwinners and thought Sam was with them as well. It seems the edit didn’t want to rub our faces in the fact that she was on the bottom during the pre-merge.

Her only confessional in Episode 5 wasn’t even about Tribal Council, but instead about the Social Hour, and foreshadows the new beginnings of the Second Act that was to come:

 I’m so excited for this Survivor Social Hour.  I’m here with Sam from Gata, and we’re getting to bond with other people on their tribes for the very first time. If we hit merge, having as much information as possible is gonna be really good for my game.

She was overconfident, but survived to learn from it:

Rachel’s presence was hidden a bit from us in Episodes 2 through 5, but we heard just enough from her to know that she was overconfident in her Breadwinners alliance with Anika and Sierra. In Episode 4 she tells us:

Having a strong alliance of women is incredible. Anika has been my number one since day one. And then also having Sierra, who I also really trust at this point, is amazing for me. I feel good. I feel like my game’s going as well as I could hope it could be going right now.

Of course, that didn’t work out well for her. Following Anika’s blindside, Rachel finally realizes she’s on the bottom. Early on in Episode 6, she gets the often pivotal confessional in the post-Tribal Council scene after being left out of a vote:

I’ve hit my rock-bottom game at this point. I need other pathways. And so I want more than anything for the merge to come. I’m hoping for a lifeline.

And then, after finding out that she made the merge:

The Angels were singing to me this morning after the disaster that was last night. Now I get an entire beach of new people waiting to help me further myself in this game, like, this is the lifeline that I desperately need. And now I hope I can take the lesson of being blindsided and use that as rocket fuel to get myself into the merge

Since then, we haven’t seen Rachel appear too sure of her position. She plays her Shot in the Dark as a way to successfully deduce that she wasn’t the vote. She advocates for voting out the person that makes the most sense for her game, but doesn’t do so in a manner that puts a target on her back. She decides to be The Ocean rather than the captain.

She is the Goldilocks of the gameplay vs emotion theme

One of the more consistent themes has been gameplay vs. emotion. Tiyana was portrayed as choosing emotion over gameplay in the TK vote back in Episode 2. This left her on the outside looking in on Tuku, and when they had to cannibalize their numbers in episode 7, she got the boot.

This theme has kept chugging along and has often been relevant for two endgamers: Teeny on one end of the spectrum has often been shown often to be ruled by their emotion. Genevieve went too far the other way by trying to leave emotion out of it completely, to the point of hindering her game.

Rachel on the other hand has always been even-keeled, and takes the optimal path: she feels her emotions rather than rejecting them, but she doesn’t let it affect her gameplay. After the Anika blindside, Rachel understandably had some negative emotions towards how things went down. She tells us in confessional:

I was absolutely taken aback by tonight’s vote. It felt like a big betrayal and it’s not a good reality to be at the bottom of the tribe, especially when I thought Andy was at the bottom of the tribe for the past week, and somehow I am the person at the bottom of the tribe.

However, when the rest of Gata apologizes to her, she tells her tribe mates “I’m not mad guys, we’re playing Survivor, I get it.” Rachel experienced the emotions of the moment, but didn’t let those emotions hinder her game further by lashing out at her tribe mates.

Here’s another good confessional from Rachel on this subject. In the opening post-Tribal Council scene following the split Tribal Council where she is able to leave and let the Tuku 5 cannibalize each other, she shares with us what she’s going through:

Coming back to camp, completely alone, my head is just spinning, honestly like on the one hand, I am just breathing the largest sigh of relief because I’m here. I'm in the game. But at the same time, it’s not great to have kind of a spotlight on me and I hope that I didn’t piss anyone off. I’m feeling anxiety and relief but still nervousness. But also, there’s a huge question of who gave me this advantage.

Again, she gives herself the space to feel her emotions rather than reject them, but after that, it’s right back to the game. She has to figure out who gave her the advantage.

Later, when the plan is to vote out Sol:

I am now an underdog in this game. And so, as much as I owe Sol for sending me the advantage, I am genuinely torn. And more importantly, I don’t know if I should let Sam in on the vote. This Tribal is my opportunity to show these new allies that I am with them and they can count on me.

Of course she made the wrong decision to let Sam in on the vote, but in regards to Sol, she understandably felt like she owed him for bailing her out earlier. However, she didn’t let those feelings get in the way of making the right move. Unlike Teeny, she was not crying after Sol was voted out in Tribal Council.

 After Sam chooses Genevieve and Andy for the reward, in contrast to Teeny’s tirade, Rachel is instead thinking about how this benefits her game: 

Loved ones' letters are always contentious. People get pissed. It’s like choosing bridesmaids. Like, you just don't want to do it. And so, as hard as it was to lose that challenge, Sam doing this and just like pissing off so many people, is a pretty good thing for my game and my alliance. It’s going to make us tighter.

She is The Ocean

I really struggled for a while to get any footing, but I think the position I’m in right now is the position that I always wanted to be in. I just want the votes to go the way I want them to go. I came into the game saying ‘I don’t want to be the captain, I want to be the ocean.’ I don’t need to be holding the steering wheel.

Rachel is a perfect example of why discounting a player’s chances of winning because they “didn’t get their way” is not a solid edgic metric. I’ve said this a lot this season about various things, but I’m going to say it at least one more time: This is an edited but unscripted show. They can’t change the fact that a player wanted someone else out other than the person that did. It’s really more of a game logic metric than something useful for reading the edit.

What is much more important is how they’re portrayed when they’re not getting their way. Are they getting dodo music? Are they shown to be overconfident or underestimating their competition? Does the edit protect them, or do they throw the player’s failures in the audiences’ face?

In Episode 10 Rachel wanted the vote to be on Genevieve rather than Gabe, but she gets the amazing confessional above. Should she have pushed to get her way? Not if it would jeopardize her position in the game, like it did when Genevieve pushed for the Sol vote.

There’s also Operation Italy, where Rachel was on the wrong side of the vote. The underdogs alliance decides to go with a split vote on Genevieve and Sam. Caroline tells us she can see the end and the million dollar prize. Teeny is already celebrating Sam’s inevitable exit. Sue tells us “we can’t go wrong”. What about Rachel? Rather than being shown as overconfident, she tells us in confessional:

I’m a little nervous about this split vote. The biggest concern with this alliance of five is just the idea that someone could flip. And then also, I could use this Block a vote so that if there is any kind of shenanigans with an idol, we still get to decide who goes home between Sam and Genevieve.

She also advocated for “loading up on Sam” rather than splitting the vote, which would have worked and would have meant a failure for Operation Italy.

Whereas her allies were all shown to be overconfident in their split vote plan, Rachel throws cold water on the whole thing. She also tells us in that confessional that she could use her Block a Vote, but doesn’t. She could have stopped Caroline from going home, but would that have been best for her game? Rachel wasn’t at risk and Caroline ultimately was unwilling to sit with Rachel at FTC, so by being The Ocean rather than controlling the steering wheel, Rachel moves on to the Final 6 still holding her Block a Vote.

The never-ending stream of SPV labeling her a threat

As I documented last week, Rachel and Genevieve have repeatedly tried to target each other. This of course involved a whole lot of SPV directed at her from Genevieve. As a reliable narrator and someone who had already made a big move in the pre-merge with the Kishan boot, the viewers were meant to take Genevieve’s opinion on Rachel seriously. She was far from the only one though.

I won’t repeat the many times where Genevieve referred to Rachel as a threat, you can check out my piece linked above if you’re interested. Here’s some cases from other players though:

In Episode 7, Rachel finds herself on the bottom as the only non-Tuku in a 6 person split Tribal Council. Gabe and Caroline - two players the edit has also told us are respectable, strategic players - tell us how much they fear Rachel. Here’s Gabe’s:

Rachel is somebody who has been perceived as a very big threat in this game early on. She’s very personable, very charismatic, and she's also very smart. So to have her in this vulnerable position is very advantageous for everybody in season 47 right now.

Caroline tells Tiyana that she thinks Rachel is the most dangerous person in the game and the best she’s seen in a long time. 

I personally think Rachel is the glue of the Gata tribe, and if we get rid of her, a lot of options open up for Tiyana and I.

Of course, Rachel escapes thanks to the Safety With Power from Sol. We get another confessional from Gabe on her at the beginning of the next episode:

Tribal did not go well tonight. You know Rachel is a very threatening player. I was really excited for her to leave tonight.

When Rachel is again targeted in Episode 9, we again hear from Caroline:

Voting out Gatas is in almost everyone’s best interest. I personally would love Rachel to leave. I think she’s the best player in this game right now. I think she is the most dangerous. I want her gone.

Then of course later on there is Operation Italy. Andy and Sam both agree with Genevieve that Rachel should be the target until she wins immunity. That was mostly covered in my writeup on the Genevieve-Rachel rivalry. That brings us to the latest episode where at the F6 she was again targeted and was saved by a successful immunity idol play. And she would have been targeted again at F5 had she not won immunity for a third time.

Following Episode 7, I noted Rachel’s sudden onslaught of SPV. At the time I opined that it could be a good thing, but I also noted the non-winners who we were “told but not shown” were a threat, like Julie from 45, Alison from DvG, Kellyn from Ghost Island, and Lauren from 44. These were players that went deep into the game for whom the edit just didn’t prioritize their story, partially because they weren’t the winner of their season.

However, this just hasn’t been the case with Rachel. While she had the least total confessionals from Episode 2 through Episode 5, after Episode 7 she had the most post-merge confessionals and she has continued to hold that lead for the whole merge. The players I listed above were nowhere near that visible. 

Rachel’s story is not one where she often controlled the vote, like say Dee. Instead it is one where she was targeted for nearly the entire merge, only to escape each and every time. While we haven’t seen this story in the New Era, Ben Driebergen and Mike Holloway are great examples of this type of winner’s edit. Those players had more control over who was going home than Rachel, but again, this is an edited but unscripted show. They couldn’t edit around the fact that Rachel wasn’t one of the big movers and shakers this season. She was the player that the movers and shakers were always threatened by but just couldn’t ever get out.

The fact that no other player remaining has a winner’s edit

Someone has to win; we have to judge a player’s edit relative to the other players in the game. And in terms of edgic, the competition left at this point is bleak. 

I’ll admit I was high on Teeny in the pre-merge, but her win equity collapsed as it became more and more apparent that their struggles with emotion vs gameplay weren’t going away. The edit has also made sure to emphasize many times how little agency Teeny has had in this game. Teeny’s indignant overconfidence in response to Genevieve’s comment that Rachel has played a better game then them and their tirades against Sam were the last straw for me in terms of Teeny as a possible winner. Teeny’s edit only got worse in the latest episode, where they were portrayed as a pawn for Sam.

Sue also had a strong pre-merge, but while she was one of the main characters of the first 5 episodes, she disappeared in the post-merge. While everyone talks about how quiet Erika’s edit was, she was pretty visible in the post-merge. A quiet pre-merge is one thing, especially if you don’t attend Tribal Council like Erika, but a quiet post-merge is a big red flag. Of course it’s not just that Sue has had a quiet post-merge, but also the poor content she has had when she was visible. Much of her post-merge content has shown her to be very petty towards Kyle and being labeled a goat by Genevieve (a reliable narrator) is one of the few examples of SPV for her.

Yes, that includes Sam

And that brings us to Sam, the player that some on this subreddit are bending over backwards trying to find ways to justify as an alternative winner to Rachel. I don’t blame them, it’s a lot less interesting feeling like Rachel has no competition at all left at this point, and it is fun to at least do the due diligence to make sure we’re not missing something and about to be very surprised this Wednesday.

However, I just don’t see it. Sam has led in the confessional count since Episode 2, but why? There’s no well-crafted, coherent  story there. His edit is largely quantity over quality, which is a big red flag. Even though he has the most confessionals, Andy has largely been labeled the main character of the season, who had been duking it out for second place in confessional count with Rachel before his boot. That’s because Andy and Rachel have both had a more meaningful presence on the show than Sam, despite a slightly smaller confessional count.

Sam told us in the premiere that he wanted to be the glue guy and that he was happy to let Anika be the leader to keep a target off his back. He said he was “freestyling” and “going with the flow”. In each case, nothing could have been further from the truth. The glue guy doesn’t constantly argue with his tribe mates, like Sam did in the pre-merge. He tried to control every decision rather than “go with the flow” and he resented Anika for leading the camp life. He told us he was a “Wolf in wolf’s clothing” but he’s been largely ineffective in the merge, the part of the game that matters the most. These types of inconsistencies are not what a winner's edit is made of. 

A few weeks back I made the case that Sam’s high confessional count and lack of any other clear role in the season’s story meant that he was likely a losing finalist. In addition to that, the inconsistencies mentioned above serve to tell the story of why he loses at the end. His edit has also managed to convince casuals that he at least has some shot at winning, providing some much needed suspense at this point. 

Sam is yet another young, conventionally attractive male challenge threat that the show’s storytellers have to be careful not to build up so much that the casual audience ends up upset at his FTC loss. There was a negative reaction to Xander’s loss that they have since tried to avoid. They did better with Austin, but while smaller, there was still a negative reaction to his loss. Perhaps they can’t eliminate this effect entirely while also making Sam look like a possible winner.

Given that the casuals love Sam’s archetype, there’s no reason they couldn’t have hyped him up if he was the winner. According to exit interviews, Sam and Genevieve were already planning on using Sam’s expired idol as a fake idol before Operation Italy, meaning the edit could have easily given Sam more of the credit for the plan. Also, the underdogs alliance was already planning a split vote against Sam and Genevieve, but with Sam as the main target. The edit doesn’t play up the fact that Sam was in trouble though. Same goes for the F5 vote. We were led to believe there was a good chance Sam went home instead of Genevieve, but the edit concentrates much more on the drama around the possibility of Genevieve leaving rather than Sam. 

I know people love to say “But Gabler”, and I agree that Gabler’s win is something we should always keep in mind. But Sue, Teeny, and Sam would all have much worse winner edits than Gabler’s. Gabler’s win made more sense than it would for any of Rachel’s competition. And people shouldn’t be looking for the next Gabler edit anyway; Jeff has publicly said they made a mistake in telling the story of Gabler’s win, they’re not going to give a winner a similar edit anytime soon, at least purposely.

Conclusion

I promise, I really tried. I felt like if I reviewed everything I’d find some plausible way for anyone besides Rachel to win at this point, but it just doesn’t make sense to me. She had a great introduction, a great premiere, and she’s on the right side of the themes. She’s been unanimously clocked as a threat but always stayed one step ahead. She has an absolutely killer winner quote, and none of her competition makes any sense as a winner. 

Rachel is The Ocean, and Rachel is the Sole Survivor of Survivor 47!

I've seen people throw around that if Rachel doesn't lose fire, then the season is boring because it'd make her an obvious winner. However, if Rachel does lose fire, then we've explicitly been told who the winner would be... Sam. Rachel/Sue/Teeny and Sam/Sue/Teeny are both 'obvious' wins by the edit, so it's more likely that Rachel/Sam/X (probably Sue) are in the Final 3, making for a more climactic ending.

Since this is the case, I can't realistically see Sam winning over Rachel. I think Teeny loses fire as we've had so many clues, and Sam wins over her.

I've also seen people point out the preview that shows an explosive jury reaction. In my opinion, it could simply be that Sam or Rachel win over Teeny, which would generate a lot of happiness from the jury. It seems totally reasonable that either winning over Teeny would make Sierra, Kyle, and Gabe happy because none of them had a real connection to Teeny. Andy and Sierra were both close to Rachel and also are tied to Sam, especially Sierra. Caroline seems disappointed which could be because Teeny and her were in an alliance. Sol being stoic would perfectly show that Teeny loses fire.

Hello all!

Last week, after 12 weeks of permanently knocking people out of contention for the win one by one, we arrived at the conclusion that Rachel will be the winner of Survivor 47. And boy howdy, did part one of the finale make that look like the right call or what? With Andy and Genevieve (two of my most polarizing choices for elimination) getting the boot in the same night, and Rachel being the undisputed star of the show for the evening, things are looking fantastic for Rachel going into the final episode...

Or are they?

It's been quite the edgic roller-coaster for Rachel this season, going from a long stretch of weak pre-merge episodes that almost got her eliminated in this experiment, to now having such a strong finale part-one episode that people are now beginning to ask themselves, "Is a Rachel win too obvious?"

Last episode, the show made two things explicitly clear. 1: If Rachel gets to the end, she wins. 2: Rachel is going to beat anyone in fire. Usually, when the show makes something explicitly clear, it means it's not actually going to happen, because if it did happen, all of the suspense of the outcome would be gone! So, is this a once in a lifetime coronation edit? Or is the wool being pulled over our eyes?

Sam, who I eliminated after episode 10, is pretty much the only other option, edgically, if it's not a Rachel win. Teeny and Sue have seen their edits plummet, Sue's in the second half of the season and Teeny's in this final quarter, whereas Sam's has at least stayed pretty consistent throughout. Never the best, never the worst, sort of in the middle. Like... glue. Guy.

Have I been taking the bait of a Rachel fakeout all along? Was I wrong to eliminate Sam in episode 10?

With that, let's get started.

Rachel has an edit with very obvious strengths. To keep it focused on the episode at hand, Rachel is clearly our main character, at least in part one of the two-part finale. She is somehow presented as both an underdog, needing to overcome a deck stacked against her to get further into the game, and a big dog, being a huge threat, and a shoe-in for the victory if she makes it to FTC. This was Rachel's episode.

She does still have lingering question marks and weaknesses. The one I've already mentioned this week; her win being too obvious. There is no suspense; if Rachel makes it to FTC, she will win the game. The one I haven't mentioned this week; her lack of personal content. Now, I don't agree that Rachel has gotten NO personal content. We get a (albeit very quick) segment this week of her crying to Andy and Sam about how she knows that this is just a game, but it's all still very emotional, and she wants to be friends with them after the game is over. Back when she got her block-a-vote, she made reference to her husband, Derek. There was also the rice thing. But, I do agree that Rachel's personal content is lacking compared to what you'd expect from your typical winner. I also agree that that is the single biggest question mark about Rachel's edit; it's so good, it's nearly perfect, but why are we missing THIS element of it?

Sam, on the other hand, gets personal content in the very first confessional of the season. Sam is the frontrunner in confessional count, and has been that way since Rome went home. We know who Sam is, we have a clear understanding of Sam as a person and as a player. The reason I eliminated Sam was that I felt the side of Sam we were being shown was not the side of him we would be shown if he was the eventual winner. We understand Sam's game, but we understand that it is messy and chaotic. At times, he stirs the pot just for the sake of stirring it. He has never been able to restore the iron grip he had on the game on Gata, and he has been scrambling ever since. When his chaotic plans do succeed, he is rarely given the credit for being the one to make it come together. But maybe that just is the true story of Sam's game. An agent of chaos who, perhaps in firemaking, takes out the clear front runner at the last second, cementing his win at a final tribal that he otherwise would've had no shot in. It's all possible, but do I think that's going to happen?

No.

I see it, but I just don't see it. You see, I still stand by my thoughts that this is not the side of Sam we would be seeing if he was the eventual winner. I want to keep my main focus on this episode specifically, and while there certainly were seeds planted in favor of Sam; it's clear that he is Rachel's only competition left in the game. I think we are all feeling like Sam has suddenly become this possible other option to Rachel at the last second because that is the way production is building suspense. Ultimately, I think in a 50/50 (if you would be so bold to even split the odds like that) like this, it all comes down to just how you personally interpret the events that are playing out, so for that reason, we're going to do something that I specifically have avoided doing in the past.

We're going to look beyond the episode.

The Next Time On Survivor features Rachel saying the phrase "This is the last stand." The episode title of part-two is "The Last Stand." Does Rachel getting the episode title of the finale mean she is the winner? No. However, this means that Sam has not had a single episode title for the season. To follow along with a theory presented from this post from earlier in the season, every New Era winner has received an episode title at some point in their season. Sam would be the only one to never get a title. Now, I know this isn't concrete evidence, as trends like this do inevitably get broken, but it certainly isn't a point in his favor.

The Secret Scene this week featured Sam pulling Genevieve to the beach and apologizing that their time in the game together has to come an end this round. Sam, in confessional, talks about this being the hardest thing he's had to do in the game, and that he has to make this difficult betrayal so that he has a chance to stay alive. Sam and Genevieve have a great heart to heart conversation that ends with them lovingly telling each other "good game, you suck." If Sam was our winner, I genuinely cannot understand why this wasn't in the episode. This is his game winning moment; the unlikely duo that formed because they had nowhere else to turn, them vs the world, and one of them goes onto win, this is the moment they realize they have to turn on each other, this is THE moment of the end game story, and it doesn't even make the cut of the episode.

All in all, I am not hopping aboard the last minute Sam train, I am firmly still in the Rachel camp.

A few weeks ago I posted asking the community what their worst edgic read was. I got curious and now wanna know the best. Did you clock any winners after the premier? Were there any popular contenders you had written off early?

My example is just last season with Kenzie. I was active on the edgic sub yet but I was pretty confident in her win the entire season. Had I kept up an edgic rankings chart, she more than likely would have held #1 from the premier to the finale, and I would have written off most everyone else by the time of episode 4 completely. Siga and Nami were both woefully lacking in complexity, with Venus being probably the most likely winner in my eyes to come from either of those tribes premerge, but her constant dunking and lack of character development in her edit made her a long shot. Q was too OTT to win, and Tiffany would have been my only other serious contender. Also to add, Sam was my top contender after the premier this season and Rachel was right behind him, although I was briefly a Sue and Caroline truther despite Tuku’s lack of complexity.

Rachel confessional that then instantly cuts to Sam dramatically staring into the fire…. Sam is beating Rachel in fire 🔥 🤷🏽‍♂️

C'mon people. This is not what a hot white scrappy young guy underdog looks like when they win Survivor. It's just not. It's Dean, Xander, etc. all over again. He's getting glimpses because he's probably either a narrow firemaking loser or a semi-competitive finalist (prior to this episode was guessing the former, now guessing the latter). The end.

"But it's too obvious that Rachel will win if she gets to the end." I can name at least a dozen winners whose FTC wins were extremely telegraphed, that's not new; and rearing its head more now is possibly a response to editors simply getting fed up with how stupid their audience is after the absolute shitstorm from Gabler's win + a shocking number of people who thought Austin Was Robbed because he was a young hot guy with advantages and Big Move Attempts and Challenge Wins (even though Dee literally won more Immunities than him and rode him like a fucking sled dog to the million) + the insane vitriol towards some jurors when Kenzie beat Charlie. They need to baby feed The One True Deserving Winner to the audience now because the audience is biased, media literacy is dead, and social media has literally turned discourse lethal. If anything I'm expecting more obvious "coronation" winners in the immediate future rather than less, because that's apparently all the audience is capable of handling at this time. There will still be people saying Sam should have won or expressing confusion at how Sam could possibly have lost afterwards btw

So there, putting my money where my mouth is, comment below with your thoughts and the season you want and if Sam wins next Wednesday I'll use a random number generator to decide who wins. Then we can go from there, I don't wanna dox myself and give out my name and address to mail something but I'm sure there's a way around that with online ordering or whatever. It's not going to come to that though because Sam is not winning. Bookmark it.

Okay, so the consensus in the entire community is that Rachel wins the season. I think if she did, it would be the most obvious a winner has been going into finale in quite a while, probably since One World. It would be pretty weird, because she's not just obvious edeically, but the show has been directly telling us that she is going to win for like 3 episodes straight. I think, she doesn't win and this season is going to make us rethink edgic just like Gabler's win did and I have an idea of how she could loose.

Rachel is being setup as this unstoppable fire making threat. And in my opinion, she's probably going to make fire and win. I just think, that's not going to be all of it. It's pretty weird that we're going to have a 2-hour episode with 4 players and a single vote-out. Well, what if there will be 2 eliminations? On this week's episode of On Fire podcast, Jeff said that they decided to split the finale in half, so on the last episode there would be fire making, final 3 and FTC. He could've misspoke, but what if he just slipped up and spoiled us, that we're going to have a Final 2 this season? What if Rachel wins fire being sure that she's going to win the season, but than the rug is pulled from under her when she finds out there's one more challenge to win and she's not able to win it? It's a far cry and I'm not confident that it plays out like that, but I think we should consider it as a possibility. I don't know who would be a winner in this situation, probably Sam and imo the Final 2 would be Sam vs Sue, because imo Teeny is putting themselves in fire against Rachel and loosing. This entire post is just glorified fanfiction, but I just had to get it off my chest in case I'm somehow right.

Edit: ok, nvm, the final 2 is not happening xD I still think that we're getting a winner that is going to redefine edgic though and Rachel is going to be one of the biggest fallen angels in history of survivor

Sam

The one case for him is that the “Finale part 1” kind of made him look better to fans than Rachel?

Like obviously fans are meant to be hyping up Rachel by this point calling her the winner etc etc.

But from a rooting interest perspective I find the Sam scene where he is talking to teeny and Sue so fascinating

Sam essentially says “Rachel and Genevieve think it’ll be them two, but I don’t know about that” kind of similarly toned to the Sandra HvV scene

I think there’s two explanations for this scene:

1. To show why he flips on Genevieve, but has no effect on the finale

2. To show him being underestimated by Genevieve and Rachel before he takes both out

I’m more so leaning #1, but I could see a world for #2, what is everyone’s thoughts on this scene

We all believed Andy had at least a chance at winning, some predicted he would win; the edit seemed to be leading us there. But in hindsight, all that groundwork of seeing his relationship with Rachel - he approaching her, entertaining the thought of alliance, strategy talk, (not only) Rachel underestimating him juxtaposed with his big game talk, was leading to their ‘showdown’: Rachel voting him out.

The ending though was pretty lackluster.

It would have been great to have a longer edit of their final chat in the hammock and it might have been the perfect opportunity to segue into the longed for personal content from Rachel.

Overall, given his edit, his exit should have been bigger. We missed out with Genevieve too, big players in voted out in one episode.

Thinking about towards the end of survivor 41 when I (and a good amount of others on here) thought that the penultimate episode of the season was going to be Heather's entire story and game, just in time for her to emerge as a top contender before the finale 😭😭😭😭

Genevieve was recently on a podcast and talked about how Sam and her hatched a plan to use a fake idol before Andy even approached them on the reward with Operation Italy, and I couldn’t help but think that this seemed like a nail in the coffin for Sam’s winning chances.

To be clear, even before learning this I was heavily in the Rachel camp and probably would’ve given Sam a 5% chance to win, but if what Genevieve said was true, there’s no way they edit operation Italy the way they did if Sam goes onto win.

If this was Sam’s game, they certainly show us scenes of him coming up with the fake idol idea before we see Andy drop the plan on Sam and Gen. It just feels like this exact type of scenario is a perfect place to assign game-winning credit to Sam if he does win, but we don’t even get to see that he thought of the fake idol beforehand, and instead of the scene being edited as Andy willfully walking into Sam and Gen’s trap, it’s portrayed as Andy offering a hand to people who are on the outside with no chance of making it.

in the NTOS there's a shot of sam plunging a knife into a tree, which is typically given before the firemaking challenge to allow them to practice.

https://preview.redd.it/8uvi9543tn6e1.png?width=2822&format=png&auto=webp&s=f8546521792f84f0f1a14cbacc0403cb47e2f54a

I think Sue goes out in fire while Teeny is the 0 vote finalist.

Sues edit reminds me a lot of Katurah and Liz’s edit where it feels like the editors go out of their way to make them look goofy and unserious. A huge chunk of Katurahs edit was her hating on Bruce while most of Liz’s screen time was stuff like her telling people how rich she is, talking about her allergies, and her meltdown about applebees. If they were losing finalists I feel like the editors would emphasize more how their game was going wrong and give them more emotional depth.

I feel like Sue has a similar edit which has consisted of her telling people she’s 45, her ridiculous explanations about why there’s red paint on her face, and her one sided beef with Kyle.

Teeny’s edit on the other hand reminds me more of Jake/Ben’s edit where we get a lot of emotional depth but the edit hammers home how much their game is going wrong and why they wouldn’t get jury votes. They aren’t necessarily edited to be one dimensional comic relief characters but we still can see why they would lose.

Okay, so technically, the merge was last episode, but they merged an episode sooner than I thought they would, so I'm posting this 2 episodes into the merge post episode 8.

Edgic + Contenders

Confessional Count

First, let's go over our newly eliminated players:

12. Juan: It seems that his negativity was foreshadowing. Now, I won't hold his actions from years ago against him. If Carolyn forgives him, then who am I to stay mad at him.

13. Carolyn: She always had a subdued edit, aside from episode 6, which was circumstantial, so it makes sense that she goes so soon.

14. Evelyn: For a while, I was wondering who she pissed off to get such a small edit, but in her final words, she did say that she had never seen the show and was learning the game as it went along, and her confessionals that did exist were boring too, so her small edit makes sense.

Now that they're out of the way, let's get into the contenders:

Top Contender:

1. Alex: What an episode for my guy. He is my top contender by a wide margin, and its mostly due to the process of elimination. I'll go over why everyone else isn't my top contender in their own sections, so just know that his edit is nearly flawless, with no negativity, many chances to explain his every game move, and being part of the complex tribe.

Lower Contenders:

2. Rohan: While Rohan does have a good edit on paper, he feels primed for a downfall, but before he goes he'll take Luciana out first, which is why I have him above her.

3. Luciana: Don't get me wrong, I can see her making a deep run, I'm just not sure if she will. And besides, with Rohan's main content outside of narration being targeting her, I don't feel good about her chances.

4. Will: A great edit, but bad game position. Maybe he'll make a comeback, but it feels incredibly unlikely at this point.

5. Sreya: A surprise comeback with this episode, Sreya has an explained storyline of her being underestimated, and is shown to have been the only Dabearz member to integrate into the Spurs. However, I'll need to see a bit more from her in order to have her any higher than this.

Non-contenders:

6. Megan S: While her post-merge content is great, her only pre-merge storyline was a cross-tribal alliance in which the other party didn't even make the merge. I think she may end up having a .1% chance of becoming a contender in the future, but for now she's not in consideration.

7. Jared: Oh how the mighty have fallen. My worries with Jared's pre-merge edit are becoming realized, with his situational content and lack of a storyline leading nowhere, while his content has now turned negative.

8. Emma: She has a lot of content, but it's no storyline, and even if it was, it's not a winning one.

9. Brian S: When your main content in an episode is people mentioning they forgot you existed, which has happened multiple times with him, it's not good for your chances.

And that's all for now. I'll see you all after the pen-ultimate episode.

https://preview.redd.it/v9pxosa2tj6e1.png?width=1243&format=png&auto=webp&s=07b859902a39c892e45e4ed349f221c812303842

Now I usually hesitate to believe the all too common pre finale (or in this case, finale of the finale) doubt about the eventual winner's chances. And I think this season clearly needed some doubt with Rachel being the clear frontrunner for much of the merge. With Rachel remaining at effectively 100% (I mean, I did eliminate everyoone else), I think it would be fun to outline the main reason why a Sam win would and wouldn't make sense.

Ok so let's say next episode Sam wins. Why?

• Perception is reality.

He says he's a wolf in wolf's clothing from a jump. It's super common for edgicers to think "Why could anyone see Sam winning? Isn't he like...the least likely to win out of the final 6?" while the casual audience sees him as a legitimate threat to win. In and outside of the game, despite Sam's rollercoaster of a game that seems to be on the weaker side overall, he is seen as a legitimate threat to win. Not as much of a threat as Rachel, that's for sure, but in this scenario, he's not winning against Rachel. He's never winning against Rachel. It's just that Sam seems enough like a Sole Survivor; he has an air of competency enough to win against Teeny and Sue. The edit tells me Rachel is steamrolling her way to the end, and Sam being in the final 3 or not has no impact on her dominant final tribal council. But on the...I don't know, 0.01% chance that Rachel loses fire...this is what I will come back to.

Lets say the consensus comes true and Rachel wins. Why?

• This show isn't made for the r/Edgic subreddit.

And for that reason, they editors of the show actually don't even care enough to surprise us on that level. Survivor is meant to be a cohesive story. You are meant to be able to watch some of the episodes, miss a few, arrive at the finale and see---oh yeah, Rachel won, that makes sense! I remember people talking about how great of a player she was. And wasn't she blindsided at times? It's nice that she finally found her community in the end. And while Sam branded himself in the premiere as the "glue guy," as long as this hypothetical viewer watched some episodes in between, they would know that he was surely more of a shotcaller. If Rachel's win makes more sense for the story, it's simply going to happen.

Last season, I briefly flirted with the idea of a Liz win after her meltdown episode. I thought there was a non-zero chance that the editors were crafting this crazy insane meta story about someone who is entirely discounted not only by other players but by the edit itself, suddenly screams her way back into existence in the mid-merge, is given a voice outlining her strategy from that point forward and goes on to shock the audience at final tribal council. It was a fun idea to think about for a couple of days, but I quickly realized that this simply does not happen. I think there is a spectrum from "oh yeah, that makes total narrative sense, we just simply didn't see it" to "totally crazy insane meta winner." While Gabler's existence as a winner could represent a plus for Sam, Gabler surely falls on the first side of that spectrum. In retrospect, he win did make sense based on how he told his own story---it wasn't an edit about the edit itself. Never have we ever seen a winner who can be entirely described as a meta winner in the edit sense. You could argue that Natalie White fits into that category, but I wouldn't even say that, she was just an unprecedented level of quiet. It's like if Liz won 46 after being ridiculed by the edit the entire season, or if, say, Angelina won David vs. Goliath...Purple Kelly winning Nicaragua...it something that elicits a chuckle, a "how could that ever happen that makes no sense?" and causes us to deconstruct our entire system of understanding the show's narrative. I don't think the editors would ever do this for the reason that casual fans would legitimately stop watching the show if Liz won 46 with that edit.

While a Sam win doesn't seem anywhere as insane as the meta examples I proposed, I'm inclined to believe that he falls a bit more towards the Liz side of the spectrum than the Gabler side. The edit has told us time and time again that he will not win, he is in direct conflict with community, he is overconfident and not cautious enough, at least during the pre merge and early merge. His win would be, from my perspective, a meta win. Season 47 has layed out for us a narrative about community, along with the theme of remaining cautious and only striking at specific times, something that Rachel fits perfectly. A Sam win would basically be, "Oh you thought you knew how to read the edit in the New Era? No you don't! Forget about those silly themes we talked about over and over again and how the winner doesn't align with them, because this season isn't about that. It's actually just about the idea that perception is reality, and Sam seems like a big threat who could win, so he does!"

In writing this I've convinced myself to take the Sambler doubt less and less seriously. When it comes to my legitimate predictions, I’m pretty 50-50 between Sam and Teeny as the fire loser. I could see either one in either spot making sense. But no matter what, I'm excited to see how the culmination of the season will play out!

(Rachel)

I've seen this commented by several people on other posts, but I wanted to make a full post for us to flesh it out, because it seems really important. Given that the editors knew this would be a split finale episode, why would they include Teeny's lines about "Rachel will definitely win fire" if she does actually go on to win fire and win the game? This is the first time we've heard anything about Rachel being good at making fire, and it seems extremely notable. It was something that Teeny briefly said twice, and could have easily been excluded from the episode.

Let's assume that Rachel IS the winner. Given that Genevieve goes out at final 5 as the only other main contender against Rachel, the editors should want to build suspense for the audience about WHETHER Rachel actually can make it to the Final 3. So why tell us that she can undoubtedly win the firemaking challenge? If she does win final immunity, or if she wins firemaking, it won't be exciting or riveting to the audience... it will just be expected. And when she goes on to win at Final Tribal, that will be expected too. On the other hand, if we weren't told that she's good at fire, we would go into the finale knowing she is the biggest target and not knowing whether she can make it to final tribal.

It seems to me that including this line is beneficial to the storytelling and suspense/excitement of the season if Rachel LOSES firemaking. The only benefit it provided in this episode is proving why they should target Rachel at the final 6 and why it was so important for Rachel to get through the final 5, but those things would have been clear without this firemaking line. So what gives? Is this bad for Rachel's edit, or do the editors just not really care about building final 4 suspense?

Hi Edgic,

Longtime listener, first time caller.

It seems with Andy and Genevieve going out last episode, the Rachel bandwagon is full speed ahead with a few Sam truthers trailing behind. However, while I have some issues with Rachel’s edit (and especially after last night’s episode nearly taking Rachel’s win for granted), I was thinking today about what her jury win condition would be from a logical perspective.

So, can we pragmatically discuss potential FTC scenarios? The “edit” aspect of edgic has been thoroughly covered on this sub, so in this post I will focus more on the other side of the coin, in-game logic.

I think it’s obvious that Rachel has a very, very good chance of beating Teeny and Sue, both from an in-game logic and editing perspective, as Rachel losing to either of those two would feel extremely narratively dissatisfying, and its hard to see how the votes break for anyone besides Rachel, even if it takes a plurality for her to win. Sue and Teeny appear to have no reasonable path to 3 jury votes in this format.

The same goes for Sam if Rachel somehow loses in fire (even though she has been hyped up as a fire-making beast). Sue and Teeny just don’t have the jury votes to make this competitive.

HOWEVER...

Let’s consider a FTC that includes both Rachel and Sam. I think a Rachel victory seems far less than guaranteed, and dare I say, unlikely??

If we take the relationships as portrayed in the edit at face value, and this seems especially important in a season where the theme has over and over again been explicitly stated as “community”, then here is what would make the most sense (to me) for a FTC vote breakdown:

Rachel vs. Sam vs. Sue

Rachel almost certainly gets Teeny’s vote.

Sam almost certainly gets (edit: could reasonably get, based on his highlighted relationships in the edit, especially in contrast to Rachel's) Sierra, Andy, and Genevieve.

I think Sue would get Caroline and Gabe (edit: after discussion Gabe seems less likely, but if Caroline throws in one solidarity/pity vote, Sam can win this vote with a 4-3-1 vote plurality) in this matchup, as either of them voting against her for Sam or Rachel seems like a betrayal given how much the edit built up this trio. 

If this happens, Sam would just need Kyle’s or Sol’s vote to win in plurality. Sol would probably vote Rachel over Sam, but he was seen as having a working relationship with Sam as well, and his content with Rachel was largely circumstantial based on the split tribal advantage. Kyle is definitely not voting for Sue. He was shown as having a working relationship with Sam, so I would lean towards him voting as such.

Rachel’s best case scenario in this matchup would be for Caroline and Gabe to willingly make their loyal-to-the-soil #1 ally Sue the zero vote goat to prevent a Sam win, though even if Kyle votes Sam’s way, Rachel almost certainly gets Sue’s tie-breaking vote.

Rachel vs. Sam vs. Teeny

Teeny might get Sol’s vote.

Rachel likely has Sue and Caroline. It’s possible she steals Sol’s vote from Teeny.

Sam again almost certainly gets (edit: could reasonably get, based on his highlighted relationships in the edit, especially in contrast to Rachel's) Sierra, Andy, and Genevieve. In the small chance Sol would vote for Sam, that’s already 4.

That leaves Kyle and Gabe as the big question marks for this matchup. Kyle was shown as having had a closer relationship with Sam, but Gabe showed reverence for Rachel’s game at the split tribal episode. However, there’s still a realistic scenario Sam can win with a plurality here. (Edit: Although, I'll admit a Sam win feels far less likely if Teeny and Rachel are his opponents in FTC. It's much easier for me to see Sue getting a loyal or even bitter vote from Caroline or Gabe than it is to see Teeny get any vote, including Sol's. Remember, Sam would need only one hinky vote to the 3rd placer in order to win with only Sierra/Kyle/Gen/Andy).

These scenarios, granted, assume jurors will vote for who they are portrayed in the edit as having had the strongest relationship with and does not account for #1s voting for the stronger player over their ally and that nobody stacks their votes on Rachel to give her the win over Sam. However, this assumption takes the edit at its face value and embraces the theme of community rather than rejects it.

If we accept this premise, Sam very likely has 3 locked (edit: potential, edit-supported) jury votes heading into a FTC against Rachel, and she has an uphill battle to get 4 of the remaining 5 (she certainly wins any tie-breaking scenario). If Teeny is our fallen angel robbed goddess fire-making loser, then the path to 4 votes gets even harder for Rachel with two Tuku votes possible falling to Sue.

Is it possible SAM is actually the biggest jury threat headed into FTC? Does Rachel have a chance to sweep jury votes outside of the Sierra/Andy/Gen faction? I think her win condition is much, much more narrow than we are all assuming.

Disclaimer: I was a Teeny pre-seasoner and an Andy/Genevieve truther up until last episode, so I do not claim to have all the answers.

I am probably wrong but would love to hear thoughts on this.

Edit: Qualified a lot of the language in this post as this outcome is far from guaranteed, but would absolutely be supportable based on how the editors have chosen to portray Rachel and Sam's relationships. I think Andy is a bigger question mark than I originally gave him credit for, as I could easily see him vote for Rachel. However, I will stand by my gut feeling that the edit has showed us a more amicable (although imperfect) relationship between Andy and Sam vs. a far more complex and negative relationship between Andy and Rachel. Granted, the context for the Andy and Rachel relationship could have been wrapped in his vote out, but I think it is absolutely possible this context extends to Andy's jury vote as well. Speculation, of course, but this IS supportable from the edit and could make things spicy at FTC. Also... Sierra is mayor of Ponderosa if that counts for anything!