Please don’t spoil anything, this is just a query

How much of this season is spoiled? I know in the past sometimes the leaks range from the gender of the winner to the whole seasons elimination order, and sometimes, next to nothing. I was just wondering this in regards to this subreddit and certain winner contenders. Thanks so much and sorry if this was the wrong place to ask 😭

sols secret agents: Rachel, Genevieve, Sol, Andy, Teeny — make the endgame. In this scenario, I see Rachel taking out Genevieve and winning. Teeny is fourth qplace.

2: An impressive idol play by Sue gets out either Rachel or Genevieve — at Caroline’s direction, since Caroline has noted both as a threat, furthering the coming war. I couldn’t say what happens in this scenario but I’m hoping for it

I am really enjoying Survivor 47. This cast is extremely strong, and the game play is interesting every week. That said, I’m finding this season’s edit VERY hard to read. So hard that I went back and rewatched the first four episodes of the season again this week (I would have rewatched it all but I ran out of time) with the added context of having seen up to episode seven. Although rewatching the four episodes didn’t yield the results I hoped, it has shaken up my list a fair bit. I think I have it narrowed down to one clear contender, two solid ones, and one unlikely one.

I'm on holiday for the next two weeks. Hoping to still be able to watch and post but not sure I will, so enjoy this stupidly long list of my thoughts that I spent way too much time on!

But anyway ...

Who is my top contender? …

· Rachel. (+1) [65%]

First, let’s go over Rachel’s edit so far. Rachel is first introduced to us when she is given the first confessional at Gata beach, and the first confessional of anyone at their tribe camps. She says, ‘This is the best moment of my life. I love competition, and I love to win!’ She describes the tribe winning the opening challenge as a community effort. Immediately she is getting precedent over the rest of her tribe in the edit, and a sneaky winner hint. She also says the word community, which as we know, is a thematic buzzword this season.

We know that a lot of Rachel’s premiere edit is focused on setting her up as being against Andy. But in reality, I think it is setting her up as being against having Andy as an ally. When Andy struggles to sleep and wakes up Rachel which makes her uncomfortable, she gets annoyed and in confessional states that she 'isn’t confident that he will be a good alliance member'. She empathises with Andy, but says 'you can’t take a moment of downness and pull someone else down with you'. She later has a key confessional where she says Andy is more loyal to her than anyone else on the tribe (which is an incorrect read) but then says that actually 'having Andy on your side is a bad thing because Andy is a ticking time bomb'. Before tribal, Rachel says 'choosing Jon or Andy will decide the fate of the tribe'. While I think we can easily misread these confessionals as Rachel being mean to Andy, in hindsight of Andy being the downfall of Sam, Sierra, and the Gata tribe as a whole, she is correct in her assessment that Andy is a bad choice to align with, as his constant need for reassurance means if he feels any sort of way, he could take you down.

In Episode 2, Rachel begins to get her narrational confessionals, which she is given to provide neutral content across the remainder of the pre-merge, episodes where she is on the bottom of her tribe, but always shielded from the negativity of it. In Episode 2, she outlines the layers to the game of Survivor when she talks about the tribe giving Andy the validation he needs so that he will give them a winning mindset. In Episode 3, Rachel gets the opening Gata confessional about sleeping on bamboo and the issues it is causing her back. This feels like it could have been cut, although it does lead into the Sam and Anika drama because of how little sleep they have had. She later gets another narrative confessional where she comments on her amusement at Sam’s lack of experience with fruit. She calls him an enigma and says that she doesn’t understand him. In Episode 4, Sierra finds Andy’s shot in the dark under the shelter, it having fallen out of his bag. It is Rachel who gets to highlight Andy’s sloppiness here to the viewer. In the same episode, Rachel gets a confessional after the immunity challenge where she shares her excitement about the idea of eating a hot chicken. But she acknowledges that there are politics involved with killing the chickens. Each of these are situations that do not directly impact Rachel, yet she is still allowed to comment on them.

Rachel’s big moment in Episode 2 comes at the challenge, when she fills her pockets with rice to try and smuggle food for her tribe. The show recreates this moment due to them not having the close-up shot they wanted. In order to recreate the scene, they had to get a physically similar woman on the crew to wear an outfit close to Rachel’s that they were unlikely to just have lying around (we can tell that the clothes are new because of how perfectly clean they are). If you watch the challenge back, you can actually see the moment that Rachel pockets the rice, it is in the background of a puzzle shot, and they could have easily zoomed in on her doing it to give us a blurry shot and then have the reveal post challenge when Jeff outs what Rachel was up to. The only reason I could think of that they would put so much effort in to recreate this is to give Rachel a ‘Survivor moment’, and to give her more agency in the scene by portraying it as her being proactive and then getting caught, rather than her just getting caught out for something we didn’t really see her do.

In Episode 4, the ‘girl power’ themes of the season start to be fully associated with Rachel. It is Rachel who suggests the name ‘the breadwinners’ for an alliance between her, Anika, and Sierra. Sierra later reiterates this to us ‘Rachel came up with the name. I didn’t come up with the name. Rachel did.’ She says that she feels in a good position with this alliance, as Anika is her number one, and she really trusts Sierra. While this alliance doesn’t work out for her, it does solidify a strong relationship with Sierra, who just became our first member of the jury without Rachel having to choose between her and Sam. Later at the merge it is also Rachel who first mentions the idea of putting a women’s alliance together with Teeny, Caroline and Genevieve.

Let’s talk post-merge! Obviously, the last few episodes have been HUGE for Rachel, and it really feels like her story line is starting to get some traction. After the Anika tribal, she received solid follow up content where she explained to us and then followed through with her damage control strategy. This whole scene is told from Rachel’s point of view as opposed to the majority’s point of view, positioning the Anika blindside as more pivotal to her narrative than Sam, Sierra or Andy’s. She got a winner-typical complex merge episode confessional, explaining her position in the game and why the merge was good for her, and then she managed to slide under the radar for the rest of the episode, fulfilling her mission statement of fixing relationships and staying out of trouble as the tribes merged. Her Episode 7 was circumstantial but strong, and she continued to get excellent SPV (that continued across Episode 8 as well) highlighting how much of a threat she is. This very much reminds me of the content Dee received that we were concerned meant that her threat level had risen too high.

The building of her bond with Sol this episode is a massive positive for me. Sol’s only narrative ended with Rome’s boot, and now we see how his advantage narrative from last episode links him directly to Rachel, and she is the ‘strong bond’ that he talked about hoping to make in the way he played his advantage. Sol’s edit feels like it has longevity, so for his only story line to be his relationship with Rachel is a huge win for her.

My main concern for Rachel at this point is her weak personal content. In the premiere we learned that she loves games and that she is a huge fan of Survivor. In Episode 7 she was given a decent amount of personal content about her feelings on leaving the game pre-jury, and what making the jury would mean to her. This Episode she got a little more in her bonding with Sol, where they talked about the correlation between Asian families and owning stores. This is definitely a step in the right direction, especially when nobody on the cast has particularly strong personal content this season. I just think one of the main stipulations for a winner’s edit is that we should feel like we know the winner, and I don’t think we are quite there with Rachel yet.

The are two other tiny red flags for me. First of all, the scene this episode where she and Sierra said, ‘I keep forgetting about Andy.’ ‘Me too.’ I have to assume this was included to add more irony to Sierra’s arc this episode, and I think the clip was too good to cut just to shield Rachel. We could also see some follow up for this where Rachel tells us she underestimated Andy and targets him moving forward. Speaking of underestimation, I don’t think Rachel fits this theme. Multiple people have clocked her as a big threat. It does help that this sentiment has come from Gabe, Caroline, and Genevieve, three players that the show has continuously portrayed as extremely strategic and pretty intelligent, however, this is still a bit of a concern for me. Perhaps they underestimate that she could have an idol and it ends with one of them going home?

In terms of her visibility, Rachel has a respectable confessional count of 7/1/3/2/1/4/7/7. A total of 32 confessionals beaten only by Andy and Teeny – two major characters, and Sam and Gabe – who both get massive circumstantial pre-merge episodes. This is despite her quiet back-half of her pre-merge where she was completely shielded from Anika’s negativity and boot. She was not integral to any of the main pre-merge story lines or episode events, and so many of her confessionals are narrative, and dare I say, Michele-esque.

Finally, there are a couple of editing hints to a Rachel win – much fewer than others, but arguably the lower key the hint the better. In the opening sequence, Jeff says his usual line ‘one will remain to claim the million-dollar prize.’ Rachel’s face is shown on screen up until the word claim. Later in the premiere, Sierra says she is ‘excited to be part of a winning team’ which could foreshadow a Gata win. Lastly, at the first tribal council, Andy says ‘an unbelievable community has formed around me, and it did not happen overnight’. We get an immediate close-up shot on Rachel as he says this, potentially foreshadowing Rachel forming an all-women’s alliance at the merge after struggling to find her footing pre-merge.

Overall, I’m definitely on the Rachel winner train, and while I’m nervous for her over how people seem to be actively targeting her, her phenomenal SITD play this week gives me faith that she can navigate her rocky position with high skill.

Who else is a contender? …

· Caroline. (+2) [20%]

I have many issues with Caroline’s edit, which mainly come in the form of a lack of a strong story line, but I have to say, on a rewatch, her first four episodes were a lot better than I remembered them being.

Caroline is introduced 21 minutes into the premiere, where she is shown having a conversation getting to know Sue. Sue gives her positive SPV, telling us that she loves Caroline and that she reminds her of her daughter. It’s very unusual for the first introduction of a player to be a glowingly positive endorsement by another player, but I think what really makes this scene good for Caroline is that it is Sue who gives her the positive SPV. Across the pre-merge, Sue will be the main narrator of the Tuku tribe, and as an obvious fan favourite, we are supposed to take Sue’s word that Caroline is a good person. Her first confessional, and her first primary focus, comes in the scene where she correctly reads the bro-down between TK, Kyle, and Gabe, and establishes that her first goal is to break their connection up.

In the following episode, Caroline’s confessional about breaking up the bros is shown in the Previously on Survivor segment, reminding us that, even though the episode may give more credit to Sue and Gabe, it was Caroline’s intention to send one of the three men home. Episode 2 also shows Caroline to be a smart player who carefully places her trust. Gabe refers to Caroline as a wounded bird. When he tries to recruit her, Caroline makes it clear that she is not an idiot, and that she is unsure if she can trust him. Gabe is surprised by how skeptical Caroline is of him, and so he shows her his idol. She tells Sue that she is cautious but optimistic. Not only does this fit with the season’s theme of underestimation, but you could argue that this content surrounding Caroline is unnecessary. The scenes only serve to show Caroline’s perspective on the trio’s alliance.

The vote is set up as TK vs Sue, and Sue and Caroline know they must convince Tiyana to vote with them and Gabe. Caroline gives a confessional explaining the vote and the chances of a potential rock draw. This explains to the audience how the vote will work while also telling us that Caroline knows the game well. Caroline correctly states that Tiyana would not be willing to go to rocks. And at tribal, the vote goes in her favour.

In Episode 3, Caroline gets a post-tribal confessional where she is able to claim that she was in on the blindside and the votes went where she thought they were going to go. It is interesting that Caroline gets this key confessional as it is before Sue and Gabe have chance to comment on TK going home. Sue and Caroline celebrate in secret, with subtitled emphasis placed on Caroline wanting to be respectful.

Episode 4 was a bit of a rocky one on first viewing, with my main gripe being the scene where Caroline and Tiyana stumble upon Sue mid-idol retrieval. Tiyana has her suspicions on Sue, but we don’t hear Caroline’s opinions on this. In a subsequent episode we did get some follow up on her thoughts, but it does feel a little bit like Caroline wasn’t the first priority in this situation. Later in the episode, Caroline gets some circumstantial content when she is selected by Gata to go on a journey. She tells us that she did not want to go on the journey. ‘Journeys are good if you are on the bottom’, but bad if you are in a good position as she recognises that she is. This starts Caroline’s arc about receiving the amulet advantage but wanting to get rid of it as soon as possible to not have any advantage related targets on her back. She says she will ‘deal with risks head on and make them into advantages’. This could foreshadow how her amulet allows her to pick up Teeny and Andy as numbers in the future.

In Episodes 5 through 7, Caroline’s main narrative is about being at the centre of the Tuku tribe and trying to hold her tribe together in order for them to get the numbers advantage at the merge. Her content really starts to pick up around this stage, and it feels like we are starting to get to know Caroline as a person and player. She is always shown to be actively in the mix when it comes to the flow of the game strategy, with her portrayed as one of the crucial players responsible for pulling the wool over Rome's eyes. Her relationships are also being fleshed out as the game evolves, such as her amulet relationships with Teeny and Andy, Sue telling us for the first time that Caroline is her number one and not Gabe, and a new connection with Genevieve forming in Episode 8.

I think the biggest positive with Caroline is how well she fits the themes of the season. She has been underestimated continuously by Gabe and Kyle, and again by Gata in the most recent episode where they said that Gabe is a much bigger threat than her, despite us as the viewers knowing she is much more of a threat. Caroline interacts with the theme of community much more obviously than the rest of the players too, telling us how she wants to keep Tuku intact and wants to build new bonds at the merge. She was portrayed as being at the very centre of the Tuku dynamic and all of the other Tuku players were shown going to her for advice and strategy. She has also been one of the main players to fit into the ‘girl power’ theme, with her wanting to be a part of the all-women’s alliance, and only ever aligning with women bar Gabe. Episode 8 fleshed out how Caroline can fit the ‘Good guys can win Survivor too’ theme as well, from Sue’s initial SPV of her in the premiere, her positive reaction of being proud of Sue for getting the idol a few weeks ago, and now her ‘yasss gurl’-esque reaction to Genevieve pipping her to the post in making a strategic move.

There’s also a few subtle editing hints that foreshadow a potential Caroline win. In TK’s opening confessional before the mat chat, he says ‘when I look at my fellow contestants [camera focuses on Caroline and then cuts away] I see a million dollars.’ In Episode 2, Sue has a subtitled line when talking to Gabe and Caroline where she says, ‘I think the three of us are doing good.’ This could just foreshadow them making the merge, but maybe they are going even deeper as a trio. Finally, at the Episode 2 tribal, there is weird focus given to Caroline placing her torch down for the first time after lighting it. They have crisped the audio so we can literally hear the torch popping down into its holder. In this moment she also matches the female silhouette from the intro in front of the Survivor 47 logo.

Let’s talk red flags. Although I feel better about her visibility on a rewatch, there’s no denying she hasn’t been as visible as any New Era winner since Erika. Her 1/3/1/2/2/2/3/4 confessional count, while showing a steady uptick in content, only leaves her with a measly 18 confessionals across the season, the lowest cumulative total for the cast, beaten by even Aysha, the third boot. She has had personal content, but not very much of it, telling us that Survivor is her and her mom’s thing in the premiere, and that she has graduated business school in Episode 2. There’s also the fact that she failed to keep Tuku together, which is very concerning, but also completely out of her control. We never got to hear her thoughts on being forced to lose Tiyana, and we aren’t sure how it has impacted her game. She feels like a supporting character more than a main one, and I’m not sure that casual viewers would have been able to pinpoint her as a player until the merge. Finally, her lack of story line. It really feels like her narrative isn’t going anywhere, and while I could see a narrative form, especially with the foreshadowed women’s alliance, I also think a story that lacks this much narrative often ends in a player leaving the game in a flukey way. Considering how much she is pushing Rachel to go home in confessional, it’s very possible we could see her idoled out.

However, I also think a big positive for Caroline is that she has inherited Sue’s role as the main narrator for their alliance, which allows for her edit to grow as she navigates strategically through the game. It feels very Wendell/Dominic. Due to the potential in Caroline’s edit, and because she does have a level of presence throughout the whole season so far, I have ended up placing her in the number two spot.

· Genevieve. (-) [10%]

Like Caroline, Genevieve also has a strong edit with major flaws. We first hear from Genevieve when she says, ‘I will blaze my own path out here or burn down this island.’ as a voice over line in the opening sequence. I think this is really good content, but also, we are not shown her to attribute this line to her in the sequence. This fits with her theme of laying low and sneaky game play, but I think it’s a bit too cute to give such a strong motif to her with 99% of viewers never noticing she ever said it.

Her first proper introduction is when she gives a confessional the first time we go to Lavo’s beach. This confessional sets up Genevieve’s place in the game. She tells us that Survivor is a fast-paced game, and that she really likes Rome. She also wants to solidify something with Teeny and wants Teeny as her ally. We then see Genevieve propose a four-person alliance with Teeny, Kishan and Rome, and Teeny immediately shoots down Rome’s inclusion, saying they want to give Aysha a chance to earn the fourth spot. This sets up Genevieve's complicated relationships that she has to navigate on the Lavo tribe. Again, to criticise this content. First of all, it’s a blink and you’ll miss it confessional, and we won’t get another one from Genevieve again until two episodes later, but also, it’s relevance is only really clear on a rewatch. It feels like the editors are speed running setting up the Lavo tribe dynamics here, and not actually carefully crafting an introduction to Genevieve.

However, the devil’s advocate explanation to Genevieve's edit for the first three episodes is that they are keeping her as low-key as possible before she explodes onto our screens as a major player in Episode 4. Although I think it is unlikely, I cannot discount this possibility. They do sprinkle Genevieve’s sit out bench idol searching into Episode 3, which is successful in showing her as a smart player.

In Episode 4, Genevieve gets a confessional to ensure she is separated from Rome, comforting Sol and telling him that Rome’s isolation tactics are not the way she wants to play the game. She discusses struggling with managing Rome’s huge personality, and to some extent her invisibility in the first three episodes does shelter her from Rome’s negativity. She also picks up Sol as a potential number by extending an olive branch to him, allowing her to later take control of the tribe.

Lavo lose the immunity challenge. Kishan pitches that he and Genevieve flip on Rome and send him home, which she initially hears out. Kishan confesses to the audience that one of the main upsides to voting out Rome is to weaken Genevieve and leave her with nowhere to turn. This reiterates to us that losing Rome is not in Genevieve’s best interests and keeping him would give her more options.

Genevieve learns that Kishan threw her name out to Sol and begins thinking about Kishan’s power in the game. She gets a high effort editing sequence where she thinks about Kishan quotes that she wasn’t privy to, implying that she is smart enough to realise how smart Kishan is without seeing his content, and she comes to the conclusion that Kishan needs to go. She says that Rome is an asset to her game, and he is ruffling people’s feathers but not hers. She sets her plan in motion and tells Rome. Rome says he can’t trust anybody but Genevieve. She also pulls Sol into the plan, and although he initially says there’s no way he can vote for Kishan, and she says it would take a miracle to get the plan to work, he later does vote with her. Genevieve gets full credit for this game changing move, and is shown saying that the move could be a million-dollar decision.

Genevieve is shown to be an extremely good player throughout the following episodes, masterfully handling Rome throwing her under the bus to Sol. At the merge she cuts her losses and allows Rome to go home, getting a key confessional reacting to her decision in the following episode, and later she also picks up Andy as a possible replacement Rome. She is edited to have outsmarted Sam when she goes to check if the advantage is on the buoy, even though Sam says they wouldn’t hide it there. In the most recent episode, she was shown pulling in Caroline and Sue, and while the vote didn’t go her way, with her pushing Rachel’s name to us as viewers, she also got a confessional acknowledging that there were lots of cooks in the kitchen, implying that she wasn’t going to push too hard and was willing to vote how other people wanted to.

There are also a couple of editing hints pointing towards a potential Genevieve win. After Jeff has welcomed the cast to the mats and says, ‘Welcome to Survivor 47’, we get an intentional close-up of Genevieve exhaling. In Episode 4, Genevieve says that the move to get rid of Kishan could be a million-dollar decision, and in the same episode, Genevieve gets the same exhaling shot that she did at the start of the game when she sits down for tribal council in Episode 4, just before she makes her big move. In the same tribal she says ‘if this vote goes wrong, it’s over for me. Tonight’s vote is critical to the future success of my game.’ The vote goes her way, which could suggest she does well in the future.

In terms of red flags, obviously her initial visibility is terrible, and it leaves her towards the bottom of the cast for total confessionals, but her confessional count of 2/0/1/6/4/3/4/3 shows that she has been pretty steady since her big introduction in Episode 4. I also think she doesn’t necessarily fit all of the themes properly, although she does interact with each of them. Her not taking part in the isolation of either Rome or Andy could suggest that she is a ‘good guy’, she has been trying to build a community by pulling in various outsiders, she is trying to work with the women, and she was definitely underestimated initially when it came to her big move against Kishan. I don’t think we as an audience feel her connection with the underestimation theme though, as she doesn’t get a lot of SPV and to us she feels like the strongest player on the island. Also, she has had no personal content whatsoever, and hasn’t even spoken about being a lawyer, which should be a shoe-in confessional after the last two seasons.

I definitely don’t think it’s impossible for Genevieve to win with this edit, but with the Boston Rob/Kim Spradlin energy she is giving, I don’t fully buy the idea that the editors were hiding her to begin with anymore. I truly think at this point she is our final boss, but she lands at third in my rankings anyway.

Who is unlikely to be a contender? …

· Sue. (+1) [5%]

Don’t get me wrong, the last two episodes were not great for Sue. However, her pre-merge was so strong that I can still see a slither of hope that she could still end up winning the season. But I think she's a losing finalist.

Sue has her first confessional in the opening sequence – ‘when I win Survivor I will say, I’m 59, and I beat all your asses’. Sue’s age and the perceptions around it are one of Sue’s main narratives, as we know she is lying about her age and wants to reveal it at final tribal, so this is a strong opening for her. Once Tuku gets to their beach, Sue gets a proper introduction and quickly has both of her alliances with Gabe and Caroline established. She is also shown to be a bit of a whacky character that perhaps doesn’t have the most strategic nuance. This is shown in her over-reactions to Gabe having an idol, and in the way she sloppily attempts to be a look-out for him.

In Episode 2, while Sue is trying to sleep on the beach, TK and Kyle have a loud conversation beside her. This riles Sue, and she discusses their loud masculine energy, and how she is used to it as a pilot, relating it back to her own life experiences. TK’s alliance wants to target Sue or Caroline. TK states that Sue doesn’t bring anything to the tribe. However, this is directly contrasted with shots of Sue tending the fire, immediately undermining him, and TK then says his game plan is flawless despite it obviously not being so. This scene serves to paint TK as an unreliable narrator.

Sue is given sole credit for managing to convince Tiyana to vote with them at the TK tribal. It feels as though this is Sue’s blindside to own because of the way the episode is told, despite Gabe being strategically in charge. In Episode 3, Sue and Caroline celebrate over TK’s blindside, but Sue says that she is now worried about Kyle as he voted for her at tribal. Kyle tries to get Sue on side by telling her and Caroline that Gabe sees them as goats, but Sue doesn’t believe or trust him due to him voting for her at the previous tribal. Sue is portrayed as a bit tunnel visioned here.

In Episode 4, Sue has a vulnerable moment. Gabe comforts her and reiterates that she is his ideal alliance partner. Sue immediately undermines him as she talks about the perception of mothers and how she can use it to her advantage. She then lies about her age to Kyle, saying she is forty-five, and although he doesn’t seem to believe it, the show frames it like he does. This links to Sue’s opening confessional about reaching the end and revealing her true age. Sue then uses the perceptions of her to sneak off and find a beware advantage. This all looks really good on her. However, she is extremely sloppy in the way that she finds the idol, resulting in her getting covered in red paint and causing Tiyana to have suspicions of her.

This is where the red flags come in with Sue. At the merge, her content fades away completely, with the majority of Tuku’s narration transferred over to Caroline. Her rivalries with Kyle and Tiyana are either muted or dropped altogether, and Sue becomes a background character who doesn’t get to give her opinion on anything that is happening. She also doesn’t really fit with the themes of ‘girl power’ or with building a community, and I think her grudge holding also excludes her from the ‘good guy’ theme too. She won immunity in Episode 8, but then didn’t get to comment on it, and the only way any of this could be justified is if they want the audience to underestimate her too. I would argue they have already made us do that through the portrayal of the ‘caught red handed’ beware advantage situation.

Sue’s edit reminds me a lot of Carolyn (44) as she is backed up by the edit, has a solid amount of personal content, and has a winning story, but also, I can see that the edit is flagging to us why Sue might not win if she were to reach the end. For that reason, I think Sue is likely one of our two losing finalists.

Who have I eliminated from contention? …

· Andy. (+1) [0%]

Look, if I squint, I can just about see the redemption story for Andy working out for him, but despite half of Edgic being certain he is the winner, I really don’t buy it. Andy is first introduced when he has the third mat chat of the premiere. He says he had four friends in high school and lacked identity. Since then, he has been learning to be himself. Straight away this suggests a journey edit to me. His first confessional at the tribe camp is that Survivor is a number’s game. He does the maths that there are 15 one on one relationships on a six-person tribe. Andy says he wants a two-person alliance to protect him from being voted out. The two people he likes are then stated to be Jon and Rachel. While he does succeed in making a trio with Sam and Sierra, his initial choice for his alliance does not work out for him. And in the long term, his second choice doesn’t work out for him either. He talks about needing two people on a six person tribe, but he fails to make anything work with all five of them.

In the premiere, Rachel says ‘Andy is the sweetest but is not strategic. He is too eager to bond and get to know people’. She calls out how bad an idea it is when he asks her to meet him on the beach in the morning. Later in the night, Andy struggles to sleep and says that ‘in this new community, I am somewhere where I don’t belong’. This immediately sets him against the theme of community. At the challenge, Andy breaks down and has one of the worst implosions in Survivor history, and his social game collapses as he accuses the rest of the tribe of not liking him and wanting him out. He later recognises his mistakes, but it is too late. Rachel has a key confessional where she says, ‘having Andy on your side is a bad thing because Andy is a ticking time bomb’. Before tribal, Rachel says ‘choosing Jon or Andy will decide the fate of the tribe.’ People choosing to keep Andy around does indeed cause the destruction of the tribe.

After tribal, in Episode 2, Andy talks about having the opportunity to recover his game. Sam reassures Andy and tells him not to go looking for an idol as that would be the worst possible thing to do. As soon as Sam goes to the toilet, paranoia immediately sets in, and Andy can’t help himself from going to look for the idol. Sam describes this as ‘the babysitter taking their eyes off the baby and all of a sudden the house is on fire.’ This isn’t Sam being mean to Andy. This is Andy actively choosing to make the wrong move for his game, and the show portrays it as such.

Andy finds the beware advantage but puts it back on the tree. This proves to be a mistake as when Andy returns to get the advantage, it is gone, as Sam has already found it. Andy tells us that his gut is saying he can trust Sam, so he tells him what has happened. This is a major incorrect read from Andy, as Sam is the one who has taken the advantage, and jokes in his confessional about how his musical theatre background has allowed him to put on an act to Andy. Because Andy tells Sam what has happened, Sam thinks he may be able to trust and work with Andy. Andy has no agency in his own good fortune here.

There are huge reactions at the challenge when Andy returns having not been voted out. Some weird evil mastermind music plays over the top of his return, foreshadowing his emergence as the ‘dirty player’ we get to see at the merge. I don’t think this is the music choice they choose for their winner.

After a strong Episode 3, Episode 4 immediately returns to clowning Andy, showing a montage that includes him losing his shot in the dark, ripping his boxers, collapsing the hammock, and capsizing the boat. Sam criticises him for being clumsy, but also recognises that this is a reason for keeping him around. The editors go IN on Andy, they didn’t have to include all of this, or they could have included them as light-hearted character moments. Instead, this is all used to make Andy into a big joke.

Andy’s terrible strategic instincts are again showcased when Sierra tells Andy that the women call themselves the breadwinners. While this is objectively Sierra’s mistake, the editors subtitle Andy saying ‘I will never utter that. I got you.’ This highlights Andy’s flippancy when he later tells Sam this information, justifying Sierra’s dislike and distrust for Andy moving forwards. Andy seems completely unaware of this in confessional when he tells us that Sierra giving him the breadwinners name proves to him that she is with him. The editors actively undermine Andy at every opportunity, highlighting how he continuously jeopardises his own game.

Everything we have seen of him post-merge reinforces his worst qualities. Yes, we have seen him get into better game positions and have the agency to make more moves, but it is clear that everyone on the island sees him as Gata did. The best he has is Genevieve considering him as a replacement Rome, and even then, the Rome spot is not the spot you want to be in.

Even in Episode 8, which is supposed to be this big U-turn moment from Andy where he takes is revenge, has the first half of the episode continuing the editors favourite past time, clowning on Andy. I don’t even think the edit gave Andy sole credit for this move, with it being made clear from Genevieve’s POV that this move was put together by a collaboration between eight different people. Yes, Andy got his revenge, but where does this actually leave him? He has no more agency than he ever did and is still being dragged along by different groups of people.

Furthermore, Andy does not fit the themes of the season. He doesn’t have a community, as a man he doesn’t fit the girl power theme, his confessionals, especially ‘I’m a dirty player’ exclude him from the ‘good guy’ foreshadowing, and I’m not even sure he is being underestimated because while he has good ideas as a fan of the game, the editors have been telling us that the low estimations of Andy’s abilities as a player are correct. The only editing hints I could find for Andy are negative, and all relate to the Gata three story line that is now over - in the first challenge, Jon is subtitled as saying that Andy and Sierra have ‘bad team chemistry’, and at tribal, Jeff asks ‘What was the fallout from a strategic point of view?’, and the camera focuses on Sierra, Sam, and Andy sitting side by side. He also has no real personal content besides relating his isolation in the game to the feelings he had when he was in high school.

Let’s talk green flags, because I honestly think there are many more red ones. What I found interesting when rewatching the premiere, is that it is Andy who is the first to establish that he wants Anika out of the game and is the first person to bring up her name. In Episode 3, Andy’s edit is much more positive as he describes the concept of the ‘Survivor Wall’ and applies it to the tension between Sam and Anika. He realises he can use this tension to his advantage. Andy recognises that he needs to build a stronger bond with Sierra, so he offers her his shot in the dark to gain her trust. Overall, this is a very strong episode for Andy, and the only one to not portray him negatively at all. After the immunity challenge in Episode 4, Andy is selected by his tribe to go on a journey. He tells us how he is trying to work on his image in the game and make himself a number to scoop up at the merge and not a target. Andy states that the amulet advantage he receives with Teeny and Caroline is either an opportunity for peace and collaboration or for warfare. In the end it kind of works as both – he collaborates with Teeny and Caroline to save Teeny, and this connection with Caroline allows him to push warfare on Sam and Sierra.

Overall, I really don’t see the Andy winner edit that a lot of people seem to see, his edit is like if Emily Flippen was called cold and unlikeable every episode and had montages of awkward social moments. Or like if Bhanu survived until the merge and managed to vote out Tiffany. I understand where people are coming from with the Gabler connections, but realistically Gabler was portrayed as aloof at worst, putting the palm fronds on his tribe, and the only negativity that came remotely close to Andy’s was when Sami called him an f****** idiot. Andy’s edit has been solely focused around the Gata tribe dynamics and he is clearly a major character that may well evolve into a threat in the homestretch now he has Genevieve on side. But I truly believe that the edit is telling us that working with a player as volatile as Andy is a bad thing, and that this ticking time bomb will continue to blow up in his handler’s faces.

Teeny, Sam, Sol, Kyle, and Gabe's explanations will be in the comments, I went way over the word count lol.

https://preview.redd.it/0wxqkeydeozd1.png?width=866&format=png&auto=webp&s=b0eca7fe5a83a98801c563870b050190b1056b46

Where she steals the rice

Also in yesterday's podcast, Jeff was praising her a lot

Andy. For the past two weeks I've been kind of bouncing between Andy, Caroline, and Teeny as the frontrunner. They all have some points in their favor and some points against, but there's one thing that distinguishes Andy from the rest - Andy is the only person in the game that we know anything about.

I'm talking about who he is as a person outside of the game. We know that Andy had four friends in high school. He's felt like an outsider for most of his life, but he's recently been able to find his own community and grow into a more actualized version of himself. This ties directly into the theme of the season, and is basically the only instance I can think of this season where a player tells us about how their life experience and how it impacts the way they play the game.

I guess we know that Sue has felt underestimated as a pilot by men in the industry. Tbh I can't even remember if that was a deleted scene or on the show. Kyle feels conflicted about eating meat, but again that was mostly in a deleted scene. Aside from that we basically only know everyone else in terms of what they've done on the island. Genevieve has never mentioned being a lawyer. I guess Sol briefly mentioned using his sales experience in the game. Teeny wants to work with women and keeps losing allies, but that's never been connected to anything in their real life.

It's also significant that this is the case in a season where we've seen virtually all background packages or "sob stories" completely cut from the show and relegated to secret scenes. I'm not sure if this is a point in Andy's favor or against, but it's further evidence that he is the main character of the season. Of course the main character doesn't necessarily always win, but it is something to consider.

Rachel.

“This is the best moment of my life. I love competition and I love to win. We solved that puzzle 100% because of good communication. It was a community effort, full stop.”

Decided to revisit the premiere and was struck by this, especially in light of Rachel’s recent uptick in momentum in the edit. A classic winner quote + the perfect encapsulation of the season’s community theme.

Hello! This is my first time posting my contender chart online. I’ve been following and doing my own contender charts since survivor 41, and I’ve finally decided to post on here. Just want to make a claim in advance that I’m relatively new to this community, so let me know if I made any mistakes. Now, for my contenders:

1. Rachel. I think this episode was great for her and that her play at tribal council was very great. She used her observation skills multiple times this episode, like knowing when to grab the clue, when to find the idol, and her read at TC.

2. Teeny. They had a very great run of episodes (4-7), but the silent-er edit that she has received in the last 2 weeks is making me drop her a spot. She is being shown as not getting the outcome she wanted, specifically with Aysha, the woman’s alliance, and now Sierra.

3. Caroline. I don’t think Caroline will necessarily win at the end of the day, due to her very quiet edit, but she has been ramping up recently, and is shown having good strategic reads. It seems like she took the reins from Sue after the merge and could possibly rise to power soon.

4. Genevieve. This is where my contenders end. I have the same issue with Gen as I do with Caroline, in that I don’t think she will win due to her lackluster first 3 episodes. That being said, she does have a very good upside, in that she is smart and seems to be what Gabe wanted to be, in picking up wounded birds and taking them to the end.

5. Andy. He has something good going for him in this redemption arc, but the constant dunking on him by the editors is very concerning for him.

6. Sue. She’s not winning this point, and the only reason why she’s this high is because of her good premerge. With the last two episodes and only 1 confessional, especially in a spot where she should’ve got more.

7. Sol. Sol has been on a somewhat upwards trajectory recently, but his silent first couple episodes still haunt him. I think his social game is great, but that might not be good enough to win.

8. Sam. Sam has had a horrible fall from grace in the last 3 episodes. The constant underestimating of Andy, plus the fact that he has not shown up as the glue guy yet, is bringing him down tremendously.

9. Kyle. He’s just waiting to be taken out at this point. He seems like a really like able dude, but the second he doesn’t win immunity he’s gone. He’s most likely going home next episode I feel.

10. Gabe. I used to be really high on Gabe, but his personality, mixed with the fact that he is overplaying this villain thing, just makes him so unlikely to win.

Out. Sierra. She played a pretty decent game, but as soon as all of her content was “we’re going to string Andy along until we don’t need him anymore” I knew she was over.

Let me know what your takes are: if you agree, disagree, and give me some advice if I did something wrong.

Forgive me if this topic has been discussed before, and let me know! I tried searching "Idol" and "Tone" but obviously that gave me a lot of unrelated results to sort through.

Knowing that Rachel now has an idol, I wanted to see if we can predict how it gets used this season using historic edgic charts/data.

One thing that I've noticed for a little while now is that often times people who are idoled out or sent home due to a tie or an "unfair" twist are almost always given one of two edits: N-tone/narrative villain or are very UTR/Toneless (<25% episodes have tone, maybe one or two at most). My reasoning for the show to portray victims of ties & idol-outs this way is that they don't want the general audience to be too devastated when "favorites" go home due to circumstances outside of their control. A villain is a fun idol victim because it's satisfying for a villain to be blindsided that way. A toneless UTR character is just a big "meh" when they go home, particularly when it's to the advantage of a more developed character, so the excitement of an idol play kind of overwhelms any sympathy the audience feels for them.

Also to be clear, for these purposes I'm being a little loose with the term villain - these are characters who go against either the winners or other notable character archetypes (Final Dragons, Fallen Angels, etc). They might not be super N-toned or be doing anything particularly dastardly, but they're an obstacle for a "hero" to overcome - an example would be Gabby from DvG because she flips on Christian or Katie in BvW because she goes head-to-head with Tyson.

I went through and found all the victims to successful idol plays (ie the idol cancelled out the majority/plurality vote) and ties, and I tried to include "unfair" twists/circumstances like Michelle Yi in Fiji or Kimmi in Cambodia, but those are harder for me to remember/find - please chime in with examples! I excluded swap screws or new-era split tribal victims because those are regular mechanics within the game and don't really count as twists imo (though I actually do think Tiyana was a bit under-developed because of this reason).

Here is a list of the idol/tie/twist victims sorted into each narrative type, followed by a list of potential exceptions:

Villain/N-tone - Andrew in Cambodia, RC in Philippines, Stacy in Fiji, Philip in FvF2, Dan in WA, Katie in BvW, Ron in EoE, Gabby DvG, Elizabeth in IoI, Shan in 41, Daniel in 42, Kellyn in GI.

UTR/Toneless - J Maya going home to Caleb's SITD, Kelly in Worlds Apart, Denise in WAW, Libby in Ghost Island, Alexis in FvF, Kelly in Samoa, Kimmi in Cambodia, Victoria in EoE, Jack in IoI, Michelle in Fiji, Danny in 41, Michael in GI, Jessica in MvGX, Tyler in WA. In season 45 I was pretty sure Mama J was going home to an idol/twist, and I almost want to put her in this camp because that vote was kind of a clusterfuck.

Lucy in MvGX is somehow both toneless INV and OTTN villain lol.

Exceptions - a lot of exceptions are from returnee seasons, and I'd honestly chalk that up to the fact that we already know them as characters so their narratives can't be self-contained within those seasons. For this reason I'm fine dismissing returnee seasons from my thesis. The examples for this would be: Malcolm & Cirie in GC; Cirie, JT, Rupert in HVV; Ciera in Cambodia; Sandra in WaW.

These are the new player exceptions, but I think most of them make some sense to be excluded from the rules above:

Lauren in EoE - she's also the Fallen Angel of the season so that narrative takes precedence.

Mike in HHH - the idol was played by the winner, so he's allowed to be a bigger character and seen as a "villain" maybe?

John in DvG - he got lots of P early on, but tonally cooled down a lot before his exit, and he was going against Christian so he's kind of a "villain" as well.

Emily in 45 - fallen angel (sorta), season narrator, growth arc, etc. Her other stories are allowed to take precedence because she was such a great and central character.

Naseer in 41 - lots of tone, but arguably falls into "villain" camp since he had targeted the winner and he was someone for her to overcome?

Brandon in 44 - M premiere, N and P early on, totally toneless later. I don't really remember much of anyone from this season other than Yam Yam and Carolyn though lol.

Hunter in 46 - this is the biggest ??? outlier for me. I'm not sure what to think, but I kinda think they wanted to build up Q's N-tone by having him be "saved" at Hunter's expense?

How does this apply to 47, you ask? Well, we know one certain player who's just got an idol. And we also know another certain UTR, completely toneless, strategic character who's been spending a couple episodes building up that certain idol holder as a big threat. My prediction is that Rachel successfully idols out Caroline! Genevieve is a possible victim to this as well, but she's got a bit more tonality to her story imo. As far as villains this season go, I think Gabe is the most likely idol victim, followed by Sam. Andy COULD be in the villain camp, but I think his story so far too complex to fall into this trope - I don't see a reality where he's not at Final 4.

Also, I'm not going to lie, I somehow completely forgot that Sue has an idol until I had already gathered all this data. It's been brought up a couple times so it's totally possible that she uses it successfully, but I just don't get the vibe that it's going to be as impactful on the game overall, and I think that the narrative of Caroline building up Rachel as a threat only to be taken out by Rachel's idol is just too perfect.

Overall though, for future seasons I feel like it might be useful to look at characters who are toneless by merge as potential twist/idol victims, and to look at any "villain" idol victims to see who they're victim to because that might be our winner, if not a Final Dragon/Fallen Angel/Etc. What do y'all think?

Hi! So my last post held up surprisingly well in last night’s episode (he didn’t leave but it wrapped up the arc and so it’s almost there), so I wanted to turn this into a weekly thing. Yes, this kind of goes against traditional edgic, as instead of finding the winner I’m finding the next boot. But I figured it’s unique so I’ll give it a shot, and plus, you’ll still have an understanding contenders based on who I put where and what I say about them!

Let’s begin with who’s STAYING!

At the Final 10 on Survivor 47, I think the person who has the best shot of surviving next episode is Andy. Last night wrapped up his storyline, sure, but he has integrated himself nicely with the rest of the tribe. Gata is a minority and after last episode it would be strange for Andy to go.

The next few people I’ll keep are Genevieve, Teeny and Sue. While I’m not so keen on the equity of them, especially Sue, they are all relevant enough in the game and situated at the top that I don’t believe things could turn around just yet.

I’ll also keep Caroline, I never saw her as a contender like others, but I do feel like this is too early. People have no reason to go after her right now and there are bigger fish to fry.

The next 2 I’ll take are Rachel and Sol. Rachel took very long to break out and in my opinion would be a very unconventional winner. I think it’s a possibility—but that’s not what we’re discussing. Next episode she has an idol in her pocket and is shown to make smart calculated decisions, I think she has a good chance of fighting through the chaos we saw on the NTOS. As for Sol, his edit, which was primarily focused on Rome, is still going strong even after he left, and is mainly positive. I doubt next episode is his time.

This leaves us with 3! And of those 3, I think that Sam has a chance to stay. He is on the bottom now, or at least close to it. He lodt his ally and a lot of people are against him. His chaos could be a bad thing, and I’m entertaining that possibility. However, there’s another possibility I’m entertaining more, so Sam is safe.

The last person I’m keeping is… Gabe! Gabe has been a consistant target for a bit now. And with the uncertainty of next week I could totally see him being an easy vote. I’m only keeping him because there’s one person I think would be voted out no matter what.

The person I’m predicting will be voted out next week… is Kyle. I’m aware he’s great at challenges, but that’s the issue. He’s very much giving Hunter from last season. I think winning 4 competitions in a row is crazy, especially with his struggling last episode. I think as soon as he loses he’s gone, and next episode seems to be when he would lose. The one thing that keeps getting to me is the NTOS, and I’ve watched it a few times but I’m sticking with my prediction.

What do you think of my picks? What do you think of this edgic format? Thanks for reading!

I rank contenders less on visibility, and more on "story" -- if you just clipped every scene of theirs, how well would that fit three themes established in the premiere?

1. Community -- Does this player see people as people? Are they a good member of their community (or, in the case of someone like Rachel, aware of the need to build a new community)?
2. Liabilities -- Some players are messy, risky allies to have. Is the edit telling us this player is keeping a risk around too long?
3. Perception -- Does how this player perceive themselves reflect how others see them? This was the critical downfall for Anika, Kishan -- and may come into play for someone like Gabe or Sue.

Finally, I give a relevance score 0-6 for how relevant their themes are to the overall themes.

OVERALL, I think we're gearing up for Gabe's Little Birds (Gabe, Sue, Caroline) battling Sol's Secret Agents (Sol, Genevieve, Rachel, Andy, and maybe Teeny).

-OUT OF THE RACE-
Kyle: (3/15)
Kyle is being set up to leave as soon as he loses an immunity. Community (0/3) - The edit tells us he is well-liked, but not showing specific social inroads. Liability (0/3) - He's shown discussing targets along these lines, but the edit gives us little insight into how this affects his strategy. Perception (2/3) - The saving grace for Kyle is that he's aware of other people seeing him as dangerous for winning. Relevance (1/6).

Sam: Wolf in Wolf's Clothing (3/15)
Community (0/3) - As with Kyle, Sam is not making inroads. Liability (0/3) - Sam mismanaged his liability Andy, and has paid the price. Perception (1/3) - Sam knows he's a threat, but can't shake that or change his position. Relevance (2/6) - Sam is checked in with regarding the themes, but I believe it's as a cautionary tale.

-LONGSHOT-
Gabe's Little Birds (4/15)
Community (0/3) - Gabe sees people as tools. He has no connections outside of Sue who protects him. Liability (2/3) - The biggest credit to Gabe is that Caroline has repeatedly expressed doubts but kept him, and he could prove a liability to her game. Perception (0/3) - Gabe came in with pre-conceived notions about working with an older woman and playing as a villain, and is repeatedly undermined.
Relevance (2/6) - Gabe's little birds looks like it's going to be one side of an upcoming battle, the other being:

Sol's Secret Agents (6/15)
Community (3/3) - Sol correctly identifies useful, clever people, and gets his way in protecting them. Liability (0/3) - Sol's targeting of Rome was never explained using this line, and as Genevieve becomes a potential chaos agent set against Rachel, he stands to be damaged. Perception (1/3) - Sol had a line about intentionally portraying himself as messy or bumbling, but this has not been confirmed/denied by anyone else. Ultimately, with Relevance (2/6), I think Sol will be unable to communicate this to others.

Teeny: (6/15)
After the Aysha vote, Teeny said they came in wanting to play hard, but were finding it difficult because of personal connections. They also criticized Rome for treating Sol as less than a "real human". I've been waiting and waiting for check-in on those ideas, but they've faded from view. Community (2/3) - Teeny is liked and wants to form a women's alliance, but keeps not getting their way, Liability (0/3), Perception (1/3).
Relevance (3/6) - Teeny gets a lot of airtime and is shown in a positive light, but it has little story to it.

-MAYBE WINNING-

Caroline: Mother Hen (9/15)
(Ep. 5: "I’m trying to be the mother hen and help [Tuku] form a cohesive, wonderful family.") Caroline's edit is feeling like Charlie's to me. We see how Tiyana felt burned by her, and she repeatedly doesn't get her way.

Despite being a well-liked member of the community, we haven't highlighted a specific relationship in the merge, and see her unable to keep Tuku together. Community (2/3). She's repeatedly aware of Gabe's risk or Rachel's, but doesn't take them out. Liability (2/3). We have no sense of whether Caroline is being perceived as threatening yet, or any personal content. Perception (0/3). However, I feel like she's consistently checked in with as a relevant player in the votes, and more importantly often narrates the themes in edits like Sue's and Gabe's. Relevance (5/6).

Sue: Blood in Her Hair (9/15)
Community (0/3) - Caroline complained at the Summit that Sue was playing cornhole instead of building community, and that has remained true with the edit not showing how she fits into the merged tribe. Liability (2/3) - Sue could be a liability that Gabe/Caroline are wrong to keep around. Tiyana was cautious of Sue's messiness, and paid the price -- but the edit gave the crucial decision there to Caroline, and the credit largely to Gabe.

When she found out about Sue's idol, Caroline said "Sue is playing!" Sue's edit has been incredibly inconsistent -- but if Caroline is Charlie, could Sue be Kenzie? Perhaps Caroline will lose against Sue to a bitter/unaware of Caroline's game jury? Perception about age is Sue's critical story (3/3) and it feels relevant to the endgame. Relevance (4/6)

Andy: He's All That (9/15)
Andy is building his way in the community (2/3), and is aware of his position as a liability (3/3) to Gata and knows how to use it to his advantage. However, unlike Gabe's tools in Caroline and Sue, Andy does not realize that he is equally expendable to Genevieve. Like Kishan, he thought he'd play the game differently than he is. Perception (0/3). Relevance (4/6).

- TOP CONTENDERS -

Genevieve: Sneaky Threat (10/15)
Genevieve has absolutely carved herself a role in the community (3/3) and is not its most visible threat, despite knowing she's sneaky. She frequently notices and takes out liability players, and knows how to use them and when to cut them. Liability (3/3). My issues with Genevieve are that she hasn't told us how she thinks she's perceived and other players have barely as well except a throwaway comment from Caroline -- is Gen's threat status hiding in wait, or is she not getting to the end and thus this isn't relevant? Perception (1/3), Relevance (3/6).

Rachel: New Paths (11/15)
Rachel talked about needing a lifeline at the merge, and she's found one. Community (3/3). She knows to distance herself from Andy in the premiere, and as such has escaped his ire targeted at Sierra/Sam. Liability (3/3). My issue with Rachel is that her social game is getting her to be perceived as the "Glue Guy" of Gata, even though the edit has shown us that Rachel was not connected there. Unable to manage her threat level, Rachel will be taken out, perhaps by Caroline or Genevieve who called her a "sneaky threat". Perception (1/3). Relevance (4/6).

Predictions:
Caroline is being set up to take out Rachel and Genevieve -- if her connection with Teeny is revisited, she'll shoot up for me.

https://preview.redd.it/qdahve8l4jzd1.jpg?width=8638&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6bd3c43de4e8ef882c4b202cbe38766129ed61a9

https://preview.redd.it/9k7tf4ll4jzd1.jpg?width=7442&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=35550c14feff1f7f4f30b65ea21f77992ecf4f86

Andy - The show presents that Andy was a main figure in starting the ball rolling for the blindside and went out of its way to dunk on Sierra for being wrong about Andy. There still are a lot of worries I have with Andy as he might be too prominent and also still gets some negativity, but I think it would be unavoidable to show his mistakes throughout the season as they are relevant to his character arc. I could see him being a losing finalist, but also him winning by taking credit for a lot of moves.

Rachel - There were signs at episode 6 where I could see a storyline for Rachel and almost had her higher than Genevieve, but changed my mind because of premerge. One thing I was thinking about is that Rachel could be the downfall of Andy who might become the final boss. Two CPP5 episodes after being not irrelevant but UTR is pretty good and makes up for her low visibility early on as well as a decent premier. Now I’m not putting all my eggs in one basket here where there are red flags in her edit, but its compelling enough to have her at 2 for me.

Genevieve - Genevieve continues to get really good episodes, but I just can’t put her higher because of a couple reasons. The first part of her edit had a lot to do with Rome and she didn’t get a proper introduction until episode 4 which is pretty damning, but other than that her edit continues to have really strong moments.

Teeny - I think the story they have set up for Teeny is that they keep making mistakes. The first one was with the Aysha vote then the next episode Kishan got out which wasn’t good for them. Now she really didn’t want Sierra out, but she was voted out. I think Teeny could rebound from this, but I’m feeling worse about them. Also changed my mind last minute just right after posting this I’m giving them CP3 this episode.

Caroline - I still don’t really see it. Caroline has such a bare bones edit where I can tell she’s important in the game, but she isn’t very prominent in the edit, which makes me believe she isn’t winning.

Sol - There are a couple things set up in this episode for Sol that puts him at least higher than everyone else. He secured his relationship with Rachel and she didn’t go home. We also got Kyle saying that Sol is a good guy which fits with the narrative that good guys can win set up by Kyle. There are still a lot of flaws to his edit, but this was a really great episode for Sol.

Sue - Again, pretty much nothing which confirms to me that she isn’t winning. Two episode where she could have said SOMETHING where she was part of the majority plan twice, but all she gets is old people can win too which is fine, but not enough.

Kyle - Kyle isn’t important to the story of the season. He mostly gets content isolated to himself that aren’t that related to the storyline of the episode/season.

Sam - I think his negative so far is too negative for him to have a comeback especially as the show has set him up as a sort of big threat

Gabe - I don’t think he’s going to win. His edit is pretty negative and he has barely any personal content which for a villainous player is pretty bad for their winning chances.

What?

Good morning and welcome to another Survivor Outwit Outplay Outbreakfast Sunrise Spectacular! write up!

This season is weird! This season is so weird! And we're gonna talk about which one of our final remaining six contenders for the win is simply too weird to win. Sorry, Maryanne. There's a line.

Sierra got hoofed this week, meaning we've now had 3 weeks in a row where contestants I have already eliminated have been voted out, so we are moving at a snails pace! For reference, we are gonna be cutting down to the final 5 here today, and if we had stayed at our max speed, we'd be finding out our winner after next weeks tribal council. Also for reference, the players I have eliminated already have been (in chronological order): Sol, Genevieve, Rome, Caroline, Tiyana, Sierra, and Gabe.

With that, let's get started.

First up, our Good Noodles.

Rachel has been gaining a ton of momentum these past few weeks, completely dropping the Bad Egg label she carried around here for so much of the pre-merge. Now, a lot of Rachel's content, especially this episode, has been circumstantial, and I think that's the biggest red flag for her, but the content she is getting is really too good to ignore. Episode 7 was certainly the breakout for her, and as I said last week I don't think a circumstantial breakout is disqualifying by any means, but it is something to keep your eyes peeled for. And with a lot of Rachel's content coming from her idol find this episode, it is again something we have to be wary of. However, what I think bodes really well for Rachel is that she is being talked up by the other castaways as such a huge threat. The Rachel threat talk seemingly came out of nowhere last episode, which some interpreted as a bad thing, but (and I said this in the comments of my last post) historically, a "tell, don't show" threat level is actually ironically great for winner chances. Erika, Dee, and Kenzie were all talked up as threats before the audience had reason to believe they were threats, so when they went on to win, we get this moment of "Oh my god, Deshawn/Kaleb/Bhanu was right!" With Caroline talking up Rachel so much when we haven't gotten to see much of her, I can absolutely see us looking back 6 weeks from now saying "Oh my god, Caroline was right!" I will also point out (since everyone on this subreddit is obsessed with subtitles and camera cuts) that during the conversation Caroline and Genevieve about why they want Rachel gone, they get subtitled about how Rachel is going to take their spots at the end, so they have to get rid of her now. They, of course, do not get rid of her now.

Andy, our main character, had some really great content this episode, but with some asterisks. This was finally the culmination of Andy turning on the other Gata's, sending home Sierra, and getting over on them for treating him as a weak player. He gets the episode title, he gets a weird little sexy montage, he gets his way. Great stuff from Andy here. The problem is that it all just felt a bit... hollow. It all felt like it was happening with or without Andy. This should've been Andy's episode, like it really should've been a huge breakout (probably the wrong word, Andy has a breakout every episode) and it just felt half-baked. Andy never hones in on a specific target leading up to tribal, just that he wants a Gata gone, and to talk to a specific moment, I thought it was crazy that the moment where Sierra DOES NOT pick Andy for the chocolate & peanut butter is somehow completely brushed over. We do not hear from Andy on Sierra not picking him, when he sends Sierra home THIS EPISODE. We don't even hear from Andy on missing out on the auction, just him laughing at himself for not finding any money. What Andy got this episode was mostly good (save for the dunking, but, y'know, it's Andy) it's what Andy was MISSING this episode that is really starting to worry me. Andy is our main character, but so was Emily, and so was Q. His Gabler upside is honestly starting to get diminished by how hardcore this season revolves around him.

Teeny remains in Good Noodle status basically entirely on the merit of their edit up to this point, but this was a bad episode for Teeny. The women's alliance story line is completely dead and buried, they were the spokesperson for voting Kyle and then Kyle won immunity, then they were the spokesperson for making Sam the vote tonight and did not get their way, and we didn't get our usual "we are hearing so much from Teeny right now for seemingly no reason" moment that we get very often. I don't think this was a disqualifying episode for Teeny, I could totally see them being way overly involved in the tribal council fall out right at the beginning of next episode and then we're just back to square one. Also, the big complaint with Teeny's edit was that it was too flawless, but now there is flaws, so it will come down to where those flaws take us in the next couple episodes. I think if Teeny is the winner, their story is that they were a bad strategic player but an excellent social one, but we're not here to talk about winning stories, we're here to talk about losing ones.

Bad Egg Time

Kyle truther stock has plummeted as of late, to the point where I've been considering him for elimination for some time, and it's only getting thwarted by the fact that there is always someone with a worse edit hanging around. One thing Kyle has to hang his hat on from this episode was the moment right after the challenge where we hear Kyle talk about the heat he knows is on him following his third win, "Helps me today could be the death of me tomorrow." After Kyle's name being thrown out makes Kyle look like he understands what's going on and how he's being perceived. His other content this episode sorta just feels like it completely doesn't matter. He likes Sol, ok cool, we also like Sol. He has a lot of money from only two tubes. Epic. He gets the moment at the auction with him eating the wings despite his vegetarianism, and while the personal content that Kyle is getting is great especially since there is such a drought of that this season, the big real killer for Kyle is that we don't hear about why he flipped on Tiyana. We don't hear about how he feels that Gabe is still in the game and Tiyana is gone, which is not what he wanted. I am leaving the door cracked for Kyle on the off chance that this is the story of Kyle winning every single immunity and then winning at the end, but I honestly would sooner believe that this is the story of Kyle winning every single immunity and then getting second place because he didn't have any agency. That happened to me in an ORG once.

Sam needed a miracle this week to not be eliminated, and call me crazy, but I think he got it. More on that later. For being left out of the vote, and getting turned on by the guy he's been dragging to the end and underestimating, and losing his vote, Sam actually didn't have that terrible of an edit. It wasn't good! And I don't think he's winning, but I can only eliminate one person at a time, and I think Sam's edit was making the best of a bad situation. He gets his fun reporting moment at the money hunt which was a great character moment, he gets talked up as a threat by Teeny and that they see him as the head of the Gata snake (Glue Guy thread is back babey) He further cements himself in the lead on confessional count, which at least is a good sign for longevity, not so much winning. You could make the argument that Sam was being spared from a fair amount of dunking here, but we'll see what next episode brings.

Sue, I cannot believe we have gotten to this point. This came out of nowhere, I was never as high on Sue as everyone else was weeks ago, but I was still high on Sue. She was undoubtedly a contender. Where the hell did that go? It's like Sue tagged in Heather at the merge. I was worried for Sue when we were surprised by her being part of the vote split and throwing a vote on Andy. I was even more worried for Sue when she didn't explain that to us, or anything to us, during the Tuku tribal council, and now, Sue is done. This is like the Sierra elimination on crack. Edgic death. Sue's only confessional in the past two weeks has been about how she won immunity even though she's old, and that if you're old, you should apply for Survivor, so that you, too, can win immunity. Meanwhile, this has been undoubtedly the most eventful time in Sue's game. She got sent to a tribal council where it seemed like one player was going home, but surprise, it's actually one of her or her original tribemates, and she manages to get the vote onto someone that she hasn't trusted for weeks at that point, and then in the fallout from that tribal council we do not hear from her about it. She is also totally disconnected from the Lavo + Tuku + Andy contingent that united this tribal council. She voted for Andy two episodes ago and we still do not know exactly why that came to pass or how she feels about Andy, she is completely shafted out of the Caroline & Genevieve conversation that she was PRESENT FOR. I also really, really try not to put any stock into the NTOS because I think it's totally misleading and non-edgic, but we got a glimpse of Sue targeting Sol next week, which a huge problem with Sue's edit is that she is ALWAYS targeting the people that the edit wants us to be rooting for. We were supposed to be rooting for Kyle when she was mad at him, we were supposed to be rooting for Tiyana as she had a very tearful goodbye, and at this point the audience has a way bigger vested interest in the Sol/Rachel duo than anything that Sue is doing.

Sue, the tribe has spoken.

BUT WHAT ABOUT CAROLINE AND GENEVIEVE DO YOU REGRET ELIMINATING THEM HAVE YOU CONSIDERED BRINGING THEM BACK INTO CONTENTION WILL YOU DO EOE FOR THE ELIMINATED CONTENDERS HOW DO YOU FEEL THAT YOU ELIMINATED BOTH WINNERS SO EARLY

Caroline and Genevieve are not winning.

Genevieve's elimination is one that I have stood by even through episode 4. Introductions are important. First confessionals mean something. Genevieve's first confessional is that she likes Rome. Genevieve is clearly a power player and a huge character, so WHY would they have erased her from the first three episodes if she was the winner? Because she's "blazing her own path"? What does blazing your own path have to do with us knowing nothing about you?

If I had not eliminated Caroline already, I almost certainly would've eliminated her here. Episodes 5, 6, and 7 were a three episode story arch of Caroline trying to keep the Tuku's together. The Tuku's want blood. Each other's blood. But that doesn't work for Caroline's game. She needs them to stay united. That unity is forcibly ripped from her hands in episode 7. She fails. She fails without even having the choice to succeed. And what do we hear from her in the fallout from that tribal council? That GAME & STORY DEFINING tribal council for Caroline? That it's time for the Survivor Auction.

Caroline and Genevieve are not winning.

Sol.

Going to be a short post. I keep thinking back to I think episode 2, where Kyle said "a good guy is going to win" - this comment was noticed a lot by the edgic community at the time, which was actually the reason why Kishan was so high in a lot of people's chart until he was ultimately booted. I never really saw anyone talking about this comment again, but I think it still holds significance - and Sol definitely fits the "good guy" image, perhaps more than any other male left in the game. I mean he is practically a saint with how patient he was with Rome, and he went out of his way to save Rachel when he didn't have to.

Another thing is the theme of "community" that seems to get brought up almost every episode - and who better represents a community than someone that everyone seems to be wanting to work with?

Of course there are other really strong contenders this season like Rachel and Genevieve - but I feel it's too early to say Sol has no chance. What does everyone think of him?

Survey

https://preview.redd.it/11cassbcpgzd1.png?width=1220&format=png&auto=webp&s=f2040b51c4dd959dc69203f17de5d0b76d5ce301

https://preview.redd.it/a70hqz8epgzd1.png?width=1455&format=png&auto=webp&s=af71189ca37ef49afa2db65aa9315b2e69704d90

this season is cooking so so so so so hard!!!! there are plenty of cooks in the kitchen ms genevieve!!!!! like this seriously has to be the best new-era season, and i know everyone says that everytime atp but they really keep out doing themselves. this cast is salty and very entertaining, like 46, but theyre also playing wayyy harder and better. sierra going was another forgone conclusion for me by this point but i think her story (andys story?) was told well.

edgically - what the fuck!?

contenders commentary:

NOT WINNING:

gabe (10th) - he was there this episode... he had some post-tribal commentary. set the scene for some strategic discussions. was a target again? overall thoughts: WHATEVER.

sue (9th) - aaaaand back down she goes. for real this time. i feel confident in putting her in 3rd place - defied the odds to get to the end but loses because really nobody felt that good about her anyways. she still has an idol, right?

kyle (8th) - our 3rd person perspective king (mr no vote kyle). he likes sol a lot. he won immunity. he also overcame being vegetarian, for the second time!! the moment he fumbles immunity his fate is pretty much written in the stars.

sol (7th) - he's kyles 'favourite person' on the tribe??? he's stuck in MOR territory but not without trying. not sure if i'm giving him a positive rating because he was actually being portrayed as rachel's saviour and i'm seriously stuck on that kyle-sol scene, or if im just giving him a positive rating because he's likable asf. still not winning (surely not???) but there's a lot to be said about his casual status.

sam (6th) - just here by default as he has had the most complex content of all of the non-contenders. hard to track him this episode, was he being shielded from his arrogance towards andy or have they just stopped giving him content completely? sierra def copped a lot of the burden of the sierra-andy-sam dynamic, which I suppose had to happen considering she was the boot. we're reminded he's a good narrator yet again, welcome back rick devens.

FRINGE CONTENDERS:

andy (5th) - moved back into contenders just because in a season thats been really tricky edgically, andy has the most distinct and realised storyline of them all. i feel like its a hard stretch to call it a winners storyline by any means, but its definitely THERE and there's no doubting that at all. he fumbled the auction hunt and was basically humiliated by the edit, just for him to get his post-challenge heroic monologue and then get his way in the end.

caroline (4th) - i know a lot of people will be moving caroline up after this episode but like i can't really make a case for it. i love that she's continiously clocking rachel as a threat and, really, i just love how strategically tapped in she is in general. i really do percieve her and genevieve's edits to be largely the same though - they are the strategic forces of this season. genevieve has the invisible episode to her name though, but caroline has really the lack of casual support that genevieve has garnered significantly since her rise. i really do think caroline has been planted as the 'edgic' choice just for this reason - her edit is blossoming into something sophisticated and strategic, but not as rootable as someone like genevieve or rachel. mind you, sue's basically a nothingburger now, but we got a LOT of content from her giving conflicted opinions on her tightness with caroline and gabe, which neither have commented on. additionally, her post-tribal content was pretty weak. i feel like if caroline was to be my number one, she shouldn't be having these complex strategic breakouts even later than genevieve.

TOP 3 (they are stupidly close):

genevieve (3rd) - i feel like ive gone over most of my genevieve reasonings in the caroline excerpt. ultimately im making the decision to decide that, in my opinion, the editors are more likely to throw a spanner in the works by giving their winner an inv episode as opposed to repeating a largely toneless and kinda rootable erika-esque winners edit they may be giving to caroline. thats just my conspiracy though. also, people really really really like her. ALSO got a confessional during the auction scramble.

teeny (2nd) - ughhhh you know what, the cards aren't exactly being dealt in teeny's favour right now. and that's because the more I think about it, the more i actually don't really have the most tangible idea of where teeny's standing actually is. we know she didn't want sierra out - too bad. and other than that, their content this episode was pretty Fine, although i do find the braiding hair segment to be a cute addition.
HOWEVER........ i know this sub loves to FROTH about suspicious cutaways and i found two REALLY DAMNING ones in this episode:

1. at the challenge - 'men and women have both won this challenge' - cuts to close-up of teeny

2. at tribal - 'you may be one of the people vying for it at the end' - cuts to close up of teeny nodding

idk. keep this in mind.

rachel (1st) - moves into first because its the epitome of a survivor turnaround! im willing to admit that maybe its all circumstantial but rachel's storyline is really starting to become apparant (and im capitalising proper nouns here which means u know i'm serious)

her premiere saw her wary of Andy and ultimately unwilling to use him as a pawn - but it leads to her, slowly but surely, to the bottom of gata. Sam very well could've taken Rachel out right then and there, but chose to keep her in favour of Anika who was rubbing him the wrong way more. ultimately, the merge is her 'lifeline', as she's able to use her (apparant) overwhelmingly good social skills to build more relationships. after the rome exit, Andy begins to harbour a vendetta against Gata, but it rarely seems to be inclusive of rachel as she never explicitly used him, meaning her premiere has paid off.

then she's twist screwed, but she is once again given ANOTHER lifeline, this time courtesy to the bonds she's built. Sol is Kyle's 'favourite person', and its looking like Rachel's becoming Sol's 'favourite person' too. throughout the episode she is continiously foertold to be social threat who's unfortunate circumstances has lead her to be a unanimous vote. Caroline is specifically insitant on this, calling her the glue of Gata, a title which was last held by Sam who dominated the narration of Gata until he got unwound by Andy's vengeance arc. Caroline has notably always been right (except for Sue and Gabe sorta?). She scoots her way out of tribal council and everything is good.

1 minute into the episode and it's immediate how perceptive Rachel is. It's not good to have the spotlight on you - thats true! She hopes nobody has been pissed off by her, but Gabe seems more regretful and panicked and Caroline seems more impressed. at the auction, she finds the idol clue and then eventually the idol, and she says the kicker line: 'its the epitome of a survivor turn-around!'

the post immunity scramble is when Andy solidifies his decision to turn on Gata Minus Rachel. Rachel is put in danger by Caroline once again, calling her the 'Head of the Gata Snake' (whilst Gabe called Sierra the same thing). We get bamboozled into thinking she's playing her idol only for it to be a shot in the dark; she's calm and analytical throughout tribal and rescinds her power whilst keeping her idol secret, something Sue struggled to do. and by the end of it, she doesn't even get a vote against her!

the only major pitfall to her edit is: why wasn't she as visible pre-merge? and i'm fully willing to chalk this up to her just not being as good of a narrator as someone like Sam, or even Anika. her confessionals and tribaltalk are usually a bit awkward, and this is especially notable during the deleted scene last episode where she talks about finding the advantage. but i think Rachel is fostering her communtiy through her awkwardness which is why she's fully broken out now that she's dragged her way out from the bottom of Gata and the bottom of Tuku by pure likability whilst constantly showing her strategic chops in the process.

it feels a bit ridiculous giving someone CPP three times in a row. but i'm fully on board the rachel train now. let me know what u think in the comments. thanks

Last week I did a fantasy fanfic if you will with a Rachel win… and I think now I’m totally convinced. Since the editing has been top notch on shielding the winner by being so good at giving many people complex/winner-like edits, I have to look at how they’d be edited if they WEREN’T a winner and compare it to their storylines right now.

1. Rachel - I’m beginning to understand where the story is truly unfolding for her. She’s shown as competent and capable in the premiere, and quickly pulls away from Andy. We’ve seen how choosing to work with Andy has eventually led to their downfalls, (Jon, Sierra, most likely Sam), but that early bond with Andy established why she had the correct read. Which is why she was more invisible when Sierra and Sam started to toy with going against Rachel and Anika. If she wasn’t the winner, she’d be shown losing the ball with Andy and having more visibility as being on the true minority of Gata. Instead, she’s shielded by that fact. Plus, she hands down has the best SPV from other players. Gabe, Caroline, Genevieve, Sol, Andy, Anika, Sierra, Sam, Tiyana, have all talked about her in a positive light either as a threat, someone they like, or want to utilize for their own games. The emphasis on playing the shot in the dark while having a secret idol and watching everyone’s expressions is a huge giveaway that she is the one to beat. The only issue I see is how she’ll actually get there when she has more enemies than allies!

2. Genevieve - she’s been consistently on the ball about perceptions and where things are heading. She’s always aware of what she needs to do in the current moment and even when plans don’t go exactly her way (losing Rome and not getting Rachel out this round) she gives good explanations on why she doesn’t need to fight for a different outcome. I’d say the first few episodes typically are red flags to her edit, but it’s very clear the original main characters of the Lavo tribe (Rome, Teeny, and Aysha) prove to be players who have done poorly in the game and so her epic outbreak in the Kishan vote makes her that much more impressive. If she wasn’t our winner she would have faded in the background since then because truly she hasn’t driven any of the votes. But she’s been given adequate screen time as if she was always a contender which bodes well for her. My concerns for her edits are that it still comes across too perfect and so she seems to be set up as the final boss before the eventual winner decides to take them out.

3. Andy - his edit is the only one where I think winner or not, this edit was always going to be this crazy. I have him here because of the Gabler of it all, and he is such a complex player that we’ve truly gotten to understand his POV at all times even if most viewers would disagree with the way he goes about a lot of things. My biggest issue with his edit is actually the time when Sol found the advantage. We didn’t need him failing there whereas most other failures was absolutely going to be included as it directly impacts his game. Not confident on him, but he’s not out.

4. Sue - lastly, this edit has been the most insane for me. She has been consistently shielded in actions that I believe usually spell disaster for players. Finding the idol and hiding it fairly poorly for example. If she isn’t the winner why did they do such a good job at somehow portraying her positively despite her being super messy at hiding the idol paint AND it’s very clear on screen she’s not good at lying about it (she usually gets stoic and quiet when the idol gets speculated). Her one sided feud with TK, Tiyana, Kyle, typically means she’s too volatile as a player but not a single time has the edit shown her to be irrational and nonsensical. Despite the weakest two episode run for any contender, I can’t overlook how oddly edited she is pre merge and how it’s a well crafted manufactured perception for a potential winner that otherwise on paper looks abysmal.

Everyone else to me is out of the question and I’ll just give tiny blurbs as to why:

5. Teeny - undermined way too many times. Easily could’ve avoided showing their relationship to Sierra only to go along with the plan to vote her out even though they tried convincing others to vote Sam. We’re meant to root for them and they’re only going to be a losing finalist to me that viewers might get tricked into thinking they win.

6. Caroline - although super smart and strategic, her edit being so hidden and more importantly 2nd fiddle to Sue of all people is not a winning one. It’s like saying Heather is going to win out of the Erika-Heather duo. Twist send off or late game boot that gets a huge visibility spike before she goes.

7. Sol - if he was the winner, they wouldn’t have ignored him when he was on the outs on Lavo the way they did. It would’ve been more exposure early game and less exposure now, which is the opposite edit he’s getting. Mid merge boot.

8. Sam - protagonist turned villain, doesn’t make sense to me. His quick and irrational discard of Andy when he fought so hard to keep him doesn’t spell winner to me. Final 7 at best.

9. Gabe - if he was the winner, the edit wouldn’t go out of their way to include him underestimating Sue and Caroline as players he could control when both haven’t shown signs of being followers. He’s too unnecessarily cocky and lacks outside connections to win. 9-10th place is my prediction.

10. Kyle - if he was the winner, the edit wouldn’t establish his only connection left with Tiyana only to flip on her and never explain why he didn’t go for Gabe. He’s meant to be a likable comp beast. I think he might win one more immunity before being sniped. 9th-10th place is my bet.

Updated fanfic/boot order prediction:

1. Rachel
2. Teeny
3. Andy
4. Caroline
5. Genevieve
6. Sol
7. Sue
8. Sam
9. Kyle
10. Gabe

I think Andy defeats Caroline and Teeny in final tribal.

Andy is by far THE character of the season so far, the editors have shown his voting confessional in his last three tribal councils. Last episode, we saw Andy give us exactly what he was thinking in terms of his emotions and strategic mindset in a tribal he didn't even participate in. Every single one of his confessionals shows us that he is strategically in the game and constantly thinking about the game. But what balances it out is his goofy and weaker side, which makes him less as a front-runner to the casual audience. We are also CONSTANTLY seeing him on the NTOS, and he's got a few episode titles. His edit right now seems like Maryanne and Gabler's, where they were viewed as too wacky to win the game.

Why I think Caroline loses in FTC - Her losing in FTC makes sense to me because we aren't seeing that much of her right now, but by the end of the season her edit will balance it out. I think by the end her edit will be a lot stronger, but she won't win. Her edit kind of seems to be like Cassidy's in a way to me, where she's just visible enough for the audience to know who she is, but not enough to make her a front-runner.

Why I think Teeny loses in FTC - She has a very strong edit, DESPITE mostly everything in the game going wrong for her. The Kishan blindside she was completely left out of, Tiyana getting voted out immediately after she mentions an all women's alliance, and Sierra getting voted out after she mentions how good of an ally she is to her. I think that Teeny's edit is too strong for her not to at least make it to finale, but I do not think she is winning.

You know the one.

This is 43 all over again. Everyone is fixating on players they like who are edgically dead in the water, while the unconventional winner’s very conventional edit is hiding in plain sight.

It’s Andy, ya’ll.

Edgic both over values and decontextualizes tone. Also, just because you think someone is a doof doesn’t mean they are getting negative tone. The person who hated Andy the most just got voted out.

It matters who is giving the negative SPV. Not all SPV is created equal. Sam and Sierra are the villains of the season. Negative SPV from the villain is a GREEN flag. Like Ellie and Gabler. FairPlay/Russel and Sandra.

If a wackadoodle is winning, they aren’t going to hide the wackadoo. They can’t. In the case of Gabler (and Andy, if he is winning), the story makes no sense without the wackadoo. The wackadoo is what is hiding (in plain sight) the threat level of the wackadoodle.

I could see a scenario where Andy is a losing finalist or fallen angel with a compelling story, IF there was a Yam Yam or a Dee or even an Erika lurking about, but there just isn’t. There is plenty of precedent for winners getting negative tone, but absolutely none for winners overcoming the abysmal, EDGICALLY DISQUALIFYING, early visibility of Genevieve and Caroline. Even Rachel’s very late introduction in the premiere would be unprecedented. Not just in the New Era, but in any era.

Teeny has great vis. They seem to vibe with people very easily. However, just like when Teeny tried to start the fire, they can get that spark, but can’t build up a lasting flame. This is the third ally Teeny has lost they wanted to keep. This is Jessie divorcing his island wife, voting out his sister, and blindsiding his brother all over again from a thematic POV.

Sue has been MIA, she is out.

Gabe has great vis, but terrible everything else.

Sam is an even hotter mess than Andy and his personal themes just aren’t there.

Everyone else is disqualified based on visibility alone. The only one I would entertain is Rachel, and it isn’t looking good for her.

!TEENY??? THE SQUEAKY CLEAN EDIT TEENY??!<

!Firstly, there was Aysha who they initially connected with then they couldn't stop her from going home. NEXT EPISODE they lost their number 1 Kishan in a blindside. Now we're seeing their idea of a Black Widow Brigade 2.0 crumbling at their feet and their "friend" and ally Sierra going home even though they really preferred if Sam were voted out.!<

It just seems like any time they get close to a person and suggest a different one to go home, nobody listens and they lose their number 1 (sounds familiar to Owen from 43 no?). I'm not seeing a clear path for them to get respect from this jury unless they make a big move by taking credit for a big player getting taken out (perhaps a Gen or a Rachel).

https://preview.redd.it/6ycvdsmrdezd1.png?width=806&format=png&auto=webp&s=2df40558803c429f64b5484d3e33e214a9f53d6a

I'm back once more with my bad takes! Once again I have added a new contender from off my list, so you can see I *definitely* know what I'm doing.

Contenders:

Caroline- Not a *great* episode by any means, but with my other contenders falling, and her still being in a positive spot, she's back at the top of my list. Tuku managing to get out from under the tuku strong allegations is really positive for their games, and especially Caroline, who I see as the strongest Tuku contender (obviously)

Rachel- I have not really been high on her all season, but with the exposure she's gotten the past few episodes, and her seemingly good read on the game (especially the shot in the dark read on the rest of the tribe), I'm much higher on her. Her main issue right now in my opinion, is a lack of allies, she has some inroads, but it does seem like she's gonna struggle to get out of the crosshairs, especially if/when she uses her idol. That being said her edit was so good this episode it nearly singlehandedly put her on the contenders list for me. (In my opinion her edit was weak until now since we've been *told* she's a social threat without really seeing it, I think we still haven't seen it that strongly, though she's roped in Sol and Maybe Caroline, but we've now seen her strategic chops)

Defenders (haha get it? because they're defending their right to be in contention. And it rhymes!? okay I'll stop, it's bad)

Teeny- They've never had a bad episode, but also it feels like she hasn't had agency once this entire game? Like they were roped into taking out Aysha because of the idol, then didn't have a vote to save kishan, then went with the majority on rome, wasn't at tribal for Tiyana, and once again went with the majority. Then tonight she didn't get their way and Sierra ended up voted out. I just feel the her edit has been largely fluff. I see them going far, but I'm leaning towards goat contention at this point.

Genevieve- So there's been nothing wrong with her recently, but also her edit has severely cooled off, and we barely know her relationships at this point. I can't see her going out soon with how theoretically well connected she is, but given her number one is what? Sol? and she has no obvious other close allies, it just doesn't feel like she's gonna go the distance. I don;t really know how to describe it, I just got a really bad vibe from her edit.

Andy- So I'm like 99% sure he's not gonna win, he is definitely flying wayyyy too close to the sun with nothing to actually back his swagger. The fact that he flipped on Gata while describing it as 'making his own table' and then the edit immediately cuts to Gabe talking about how he's glad Andy came to them, is really bad in my mind. He thinks he's making big plays, but it feels like he's still gone first after the other Gatas. ...That being said his edit is so overexposed that I don;t want to quite write him out just yet... but expect him to be off the list next week.

Sol- A fairly weak week for Sol after a really good one. He's never been high on my list to begin with, but a cooldown of this level after only becoming lukewarm last week is pretty bad for his winner odds IMO. I don't think he's out of it, but I think him remaining on the list strongly depends on how he interacts with Rachel next week.

Newly Out:

Kyle- I like him, he's fun, he's cool-- He's not winning, as much as I'd hoped for his casual good content to transform into him becoming an UTR strategic threat while also OTT physical threat... yeah no he's just obviously a physical threat whose days are probably numbered.

Others:

Sam- Yeah so he's obviously not gonna win, especially not with how open he is without any real allies left. Rachel technically is, but I expect her to try to distance herself. That being said, losing Sierra may buy him a couple weeks at least. Honestly would be funny if Sam turned around and blindsided Andy before heading out himself, especially with how cocky Andy's edit has gottem (like student, like master? is that a saying?)

Sue- Yeah nah she's out, I considered her edit this episode *technically* positive, but it was such surface level bleh. Anyway, maybe she plays her idol next week and blows up the game a bit.

Gabe- Consistently mediocre-to-worse content. For someone who seems to allegedly be the leader of the Tuku alliance, his screentime and shown aptitude doesn't show it.

Another pretty weird episode for editing. Not a lot of great contenders out there this season lol. Anyways:

Top Contenders:

1. Andy (previously 1) - It was very obvious he was going to take out at least one of Sam/Sierra sometime in the post merge, but I didn't necessarily think it would be this soon. I actually think this occurring so soon is a negative for Andy, as it increases the likelihood his storyline ends now/soon after Sam/Sierra are both gone. However, there are still many positives from today. He was shown getting his way in the vote with Sierra going instead of Sam or Rachel. And the quote by Genevieve saying there's "so many cooks in the kitchen" and him being able to come out on top is great for him. Also, this is clearly a group move, and not just an Andy move, but the edit gives him most of the credit. He was clowned on a bit earlier, but he got his vengeance in the same episode so that's kind of fine. For being the sole person in my top contenders tier, his edit is a bit lackluster, but given his competition, he's kind of here by default. Also is from the most complex alliance on the most complex pre-merge tribe, which is another plus. MOST LIKELY: Winner

Other Possible Winners:

2. Sue (previously 2) - The second terrible episode in a row by Sue, and her stock has plummeted the last two episodes. She's still at 2, barely, because no one else really has very high stock, but she's on a strong downward trend. Her edit is certainly looking more like a standard growth edit who we're supposed to root for. However, she still has the storylines present and the pre-merge edit that could allow her to win, so it wouldn't be a shock. She really needs a big next couple episodes though. MOST LIKELY: Late-game boot or Runner-up

3. Kyle (previously 3) - His edit really isn't too far off from the typical "physical threat early-merge boot", so it's hard putting me him this high. It's really just because a lack of contenders. But, I believe he has the storyline setup to possibly (unlikely) win the game. He had an okay pre-merge edit with an underdog edit, and he has a "nice guy" edit which wouldn't be shocking for him to get if he ended up winning. It's also not improbable that he just wins 75% of the remaining immunities and wins against weak competition without doing much strategically. MOST LIKELY: mid-merge boot

4. Rachel (previously 8) - I'm really not a Rachel truther, and her jump up isn't because of this episode, it's just me thinking more about my list over the last week. Nearly all of her screentime has been circumstantial. However, she has had a lot of random things happen to her that require screentime, so it's impossible to necessarily say she'd be getting less screentime had those things not happened to her. She also comes from the most complex pre-merge tribe (although she didn't get a great edit relative to Sam/Sierra/Andy). Additionally, she has the 'underdog' storyline setup necessary to pull off a win. I still think she's very likely to go soon though. MOST LIKELY: early-mid merge boot

5. Sam (previously 6) - So far, he's had a horrendous post-merge. On paper, this was another terrible episode for him. However, I think Sierra going here this early is great for his long-term prospects of winning (it really was his only chance). I could definitely see (not likely, but can see) a storyline where he realizes his mistakes for disregarding Andy and how this vote humbled him, and he turns his game around. One of the main reasons I say this is because he had quite a strong pre-merge edit and was at the center of the most complex pre-merge alliance and tribe. Also had a ton of screen time. Still, probably not happening. MOST LIKELY: mid-lategame boot

6. Gabe (previously 4) - Kind of just a 'whatever' edit. But, he's gotten a good amount of screentime, could have been shown way more negatively than he has been, and is from the complex alliance on one of the two complex pre-merge tribes. So still alive, but not amazing. MOST LIKELY: mid-merge boot

7. Caroline (previously 5) - Very close to eliminating her. She's from one of the complex alliances on one of the complex tribes.... and that's about it. Been shown as Sue's sidekick too much, and been shown making wrong assumptions about other people. Another bad ep and she's probably done to me. MOST LIKELY: mid-late merge boot

You're Done

8. Teeny (previously 9) - Another pretty bad episode for Teeny. They weren't shown at all really, then were shown not getting their way in the vote (Sierra going home, which is not what they wanted). Their edit has also been all surface level, strategy / strategic narrator talk which is not good for winning chances. They were also on the least complex tribe of the premerge where all the content was about how everyone hates Rome and almost nothing else. Still, the amount of content they've gotten makes me think they're going far. Gives me runner-up vibes, or just general endgamer. BEST GUESS: Runner-up

9. Sol (previously 12) - Decent episode! But too little too late. No one from Lavo is winning, and on top of that all his edit pre-merge was his rivalry with rome. I think his odds of going far in the game have improved though, although not too much. BEST GUESS: Early to mid-merge boot

10. Genevieve (previously 11) - Quiet episode. They do have the storyline setup to go potentially far in the game though. But, being from the least complex tribe where everything is just about Rome, and being invisible on that tribe and in parts of the post-merge has her at the bottom. BEST GUESS: Late-game boot

Another solid episode! I enjoyed having the auction back (albeit with a minor complaint about losing votes...) and the post-challenge scramble to find out which Gata member would go was entertaining! While I have been correct in my boot predictions (I predicted Tiyana in 12th and Sierra in 11th in Episode 6), I have felt less strong about my winner predictions.

Examining Sierra's was watching a phoenix rise slowly and crash into the rocks. She checked a lot of the boxes but Episode 5 was a poor episode for her and Episode 6 was a death knell. I predicted correctly that she would be the first victim of Andy's flip at the post-merge and I was correct. Sierra was being set up as someone who had a missed opportunity. She was being built up in the edit but she ultimately made the wrong choice.

Let's start with my Post-Episode Expectations.

Firstly, with Rachel, I needed more consistent and strong content from her to continue. She met and surpassed my expectations. I understand that her content this episode was circumstantial. She found an immunity idol for crying out loud! However, her relationship with Sol was emphasized and she received positive SPV that she did not need. The other players have described her as 'the most dangerous player in this game', the 'most intelligent player in the game', 'someone who can slide to the end and win' but she was not one of the two targets at this vote. This feels very reminiscent of Kenzie, where Q, Bhanu, Jess, and Tiffany declared that she made it to the end and win but ultimately failed in taking her out. We also seem to have conclusion to her story with Andy. It will be interesting to see the epilogue of this story in the following episode.

Also, she was referred to as 'the glue guy', was introduced before the tribes settled in, has received narrational content, strategic content, is from the 'complex tribe', yadadaya.. She does not have any major flaws but her edit is not as 'in-your-face' obvious as Teeny's, which is a positive for her.

Sue was someone who I needed a redemption episode from. While on paper she seemed to receive strong content (once again about her age), I think I've deduced what a non-winning Sue edit looks like. This could be a winning Sue edit but this could also be the editors trying to make her an inspirational figure. This is why she has not been undermined and her age and job is touched on so much. Sue can still win but I have a lot of doubts considering both her backstory package was cut and her zero-confessional episode.

I needed Andy to go one episode WITHOUT being undermined or at least in a way that props him up afterward. He met my expectations but I still have some reservations. He was undermined but it was setting him up for an impending flip and he definitely received strategic content for flipping the vote onto Gata, nicely wrapping up his stories with Sam, Sierra, and Rachel. However, this could easily be a losing finalist edit which is what I expect it to be. Because Andy has been undermined at every point, I think he will have an over-inflated view of his own game, while the jurors will be cold toward him. Yes, Sue's being underestimated, but I believe that she can still make her case and a jury would listen.

Teeny and Caroline both failed to meet my expectations. Teeny had a terrible moment in the episode where she made it abundantly clear that she wanted Sam out, but, ultimately, Sierra went home. She did say that she did not want to rock the boat too much, but we instantly see her talking to multiple people suggesting Sam's name. Again, Teeny seems to being set up to be our fallen angel or late-game elimination, and I think Caroline is our underedited mid-merge/Finale player with a spike of content at the merge. I have some faith left with Teeny, but 'the scales be tippin'.

Speaking of which, Genevieve has lowered on my ranking. It's more that Andy moved up than that she moved down, but I think Genevieve is prime to be taken out as a threat in the later stages. She wanted out Rachel and failed. She received very little content in the first three episodes. The bulk of her content has been circumstantial and Natalie White and Erika both had stories being set up (being underestimated and defeating Russell, going from a lamb to a lion) but Genevieve does not have that.

Now that we've gone through my contenders from last episode, let's take a look at how they've shifted. Firstly, who are my top contenders...?

Rachel (CPP5) : Rachel received a fantastic episode, with a few drawbacks from her edit being a tad too circumstantial, but with notably positive SPV and emphasis on her growing relationship with Sol. I'm not sure what Rachel's edit would be if she is not our winner, which places her above Sue because Sue could easily be our 'inspirational figure' or a Carolyn-type figure. Rachel fits many of the boxes without being too overtly obvious and if Jeff announces Rachel is the winner of Survivor 47, I would not be too shocked.

Sue (OTTP2) : 'Age is just a number..' Oh! Anyway, Sue's edit is now speaking to me as an 'inspirational figure' edit which is why we've received so much content about her age and occupation. However, this could also be a winning edit/finalist edit. I feel pretty confident that Sue's making Finale Night, will outlast Gabe, and possibly makes the Final Tribal Council, but I'm unsure where she places from there.

Who are my backup contenders...?

Andy (OTTP4) : All of his content here was to be expected. Sam and Sierra were set up by the edit to be making a mistake. Rachel's storyline in Episode 1 with Andy seems to have been leading up to this moment. Andy will be a major character this season and I firmly believe he will be making the Final Tribal Council. However, I still see red flags for his edit.. He's undermined when he does not need to be. The schoolyard pick where SIERRA does not pick him and he receives personal content is cut. This could've been easy, strong, apparent content for Andy. Also, if the female winner theories are true, Andy is automatically eliminated from contention. I place him here, but if Rachel and Sue drop, Andy could be a viable contender.

Teeny (MOR3) : A bit of a mixed episode for Teeny... Teeny always gets to explain their thoughts on every vote, but, this episode she made it abundantly clear she wanted Sam out and did not get her away. I've already lost faith in Teeny but this only emphasizes that. She has a strong edit but I think she's meant to be the dragon that ultimately gets slayed by Andy, Rachel, or Sue.

Who am I losing hope in...?

Caroline (UTR2) : Caroline had a near-perfect edit last week, but I think that after some reevaluation, the edit has been CONSTANTLY building up her taking out Rachel.. only for her to not do so. We also have never heard HER thoughts up until the merge. She's been Sue's daughter/closest ally all game, and it seems that it will be the edit she ends up getting. We even see a moment where Sue snatches the auction scroll right where Caroline was.. possible foreshadowing?

Genevieve (MOR2) : Genevieve truthers.. what are you seeing that I'm not seeing? I just feel that Genevieve's content has been mostly there because it NEEDS to be there. Has she received strategic credit for building a bond with Andy? Yes. Did she want out Rachel and Sierra went home? Also yes. Does she have a possible long-term story? I don't see it. She doesn't check a lot of the boxes that I would need to see from her. I think if she receives a bad episode next week, she will be dropping on my rankings and possibly fully eliminated from contention.

Who is not winning Survivor 47 and are also the men who will probably be taken out by the women...?

Kyle (UTR2) : I think Kyle will be taken out after not winning individual immunity. Look, I have some faith in Kyle, but I think that he's on the screen just because he's endearing. There hasn't been any longterm story set up for him outside of Sue wanting him out but failing because he keeps winning individual immunity. The second he loses individual immunity he's toast.

Sol (MORP3) : Not a bad episode for Sol, but I think he will be a reason as to why Rachel makes it far or ends up winning the season. I can't see a path for Sol.

Sam (MORN3) : Not a good episode for him. Probably will go home next week if Kyle wins individual immunity.

Gabe (UTR2) : He can't win with this edit, can he?