Did this last week, and was gonna wait till tuesday before posting it, but I've got surgery tomorrow and won't be able to be at my PC to compile this (and respectfully I am not messing with google sheets on mobile)

I've taken the contender lists from everyone who's posted a full contender list, compiled them together, and got some fun stats to share. They don't hold much weight, but I think it's fun to look at what changes between episodes.

Here is the raw data incase anyone wants to use it for whatever reason!

https://preview.redd.it/f9ay2bgy7dyd1.png?width=1941&format=png&auto=webp&s=e866ff9e0b55e30cdf870be9c8ea80c031c20f34

AVERAGE PLACEMENT:

1. Teeny - Average placement of 2.8
2. Caroline - Average placement of 3 (Previously 4.8)
3. Genevieve - Average placement of 3.4 (Previously 4.1)
4. Andy - Average placement of 4.3 (Previously 4.6)
5. Rachel - Average placement of 5.4 (Previously 7.7)
6. Sue - Average placement of 5.5 (Previously 2.7)
7. Sierra - Average placement of 6.8 (Previously 7.3)
8. Sam - Average placement of 7.5 (Previously 6.4)
9. Gabe - Average placement of 8.4 (Previously 7.1)
10. Kyle - Average placement of 8.8 (Previously 8.7)
11. Sol - Average placement of 9.4 (Previously 10.6)

Compared to last week, here at the biggest rises to score.

1. Rachel - Increase of 2.3
2. Caroline - Increase of 1.8
3. Sol - Increase of 1.2
4. Genevieve - Increase of 0.7
5. Sierra - Increase of 0.5
6. Andy - Increase of 0.3

These 4 are the only ones to rise this week, and following that is the biggest drops

1. Sue - Decrease of 2.8
2. Gabe - Decrease of 1.3
3. Sam - Decrease of 1.1
4. Teeny - Decrease of 0.3
5. Kyle - Decrease of 0.1

So what does this mean? To put it simply, nothing. All of these stats are practically meaningless, but I can give some ideas as to why some drops happened. Sue had the largest change after zero confessionals in a critical episode for her, while Rachel had a massive rise mainly due to her being ranked so low last week. Teeny takes a tiny drop as lower placements of them become more common due to more frontrunners emerging.

Sol and Sierra? I got no clue

Additionally, here is the highest placement for each player.

1ST - Caroline, Andy, Teeny, Sierra, Sue, Genevieve.

2ND - Rachel

3RD - Kyle

4TH - Sol, Gabe

5TH - Sam

As well as the lowest.

7TH - Andy

8TH - Caroline

9TH - Teeny

10TH - Genevieve, Rachel, Sierra, Sue

11TH - Sam, Sol, Kyle, Gabe

A few notable changes compared to last week, mainly Caroline and Teeny, who's lowest has moved up and down respectively, while last place stays mostly the same.

Hate to release this early since there'll probably be a few more contender rankings dropped before next week, but I got a sizeable amount of data that I don't think things will change drastically, so I'm happy with it.

EDIT: Accidentally included someone twice, went ahead and fixed it but the numbers might be a tiny bit off (like within 0.1-0.2, doesn't affect any of the rankings as far as i know and the top 4 are solid)

https://preview.redd.it/vqoz96h2acyd1.png?width=1408&format=png&auto=webp&s=614cf6327e4f80fc1ccda743988441da8cde73de

https://preview.redd.it/sunysth3acyd1.png?width=1316&format=png&auto=webp&s=7424e7bbadb135640bd90d7bd4f41ffb0754c25b

Hey everyone! Thank u to all who have voted on my weekly polls so far this season! Now that we're merged, who are your favorite castaways remaining? And who are your top winner predictions at this point in the game? To vote this week, fill out this google form!

RESULTS FROM LAST WEEK:

Survey Results! Week 6

FAVORABILITY! (Left)

In my survey, voters were asked to rate each castaway based on how much they are enjoying or rooting for them to make it further in the game, subjectively. These results are proportional to the average rating 1-7 of each castaway. The tribe scores are an average of the tribe members' average scores.

After episode 6 last week, the castaways with the three highest average favorability ratings were Sol (82%), Genevieve (75%), and Kyle (67%).

WINNER PREDICTIONS (Right)

Voters were also asked to choose which two castaways they currently predict will win. The individual results are based on the percent of respondents voting for them, therefore they sum to 200%**. The tribe scores are based on the percent of the total votes votes each tribe's members received, therefore they sum to 100%**.

After episode 6 last week, the three castaways with the most winner prediction votes are: Genevieve (41%), Teeny (36%), and Caroline (28%).

TLDR: After last week, Sol Fan Favorite, Genevieve Winner Prediction.

Again, to make your winner predictions this week and rate the remaining castaways, fill out this google form! <3

A What-Based Approach to Who?

Come one, come all!

It is time again for us to pick another loser of Survivor 47, based on who the edit is telling us is a loser!

This week, Tiyana went home, marking the second consecutive player that I had already eliminated to be voted out, which has slowed down our blistering pace toward the finish line. To recap, our eliminated players (in chronological order) are; Sol, Genevieve, Rome, Caroline, Tiyana, & Sierra.

Now that we have come to a screeching halt and are no longer crossing two people off the list each week, it is nice to have more time to analyze, but I'm also so eager to get to this finish line, so let's cut 7 down to 6, shall we?

With that, let's get started.

As per last week, we have begun to break up our merge group into Good Noodles and Bad Eggs. We will continue to do so, starting with our Good Noodles.

Teeny continues to sit firmly in the Good Noodle group, with a strong, consistent edit. The biggest flaw in Teeny's edit is that it's too good. Are they our Charlie? Maybe! But if I had eliminated Charlie after Episode 7 of Survivor 46, I would've looked like an idiot! Teeny gets the opening confessional this episode, giving us a nice bow on their feud with Rome, and for some reason sets up the Sol and Andy damage control conversation? Which is CRAZY, but also a huge plus. Teeny gets the confessional setting up the women's alliance, equipped with the black widow brigade flashback, and with a woman going home this episode, that's usually a huge negative, but also Teeny was not there, so depending on how the women's alliance idea plays out in the future, this could spell disaster, or victory.

To the chagrin of the Gata tribe, Andy is in our Good Noodle group. This whole set up with Andy's conversation about Gata with Sol, Andy's new alliance with Genevieve, the flashbacks of the Gata days while Andy writes in the sand, this stuff is just impossible to ignore. Someone on this sub said the phrase "I don't know if Andy is the winner, but he is certainly the main character." and that's pretty much where I'm at at this point. SO MUCH of the game revolves around Andy. It is his world, everyone else is living in it. Andy does get dunked on pretty unnecessarily hard in this episode, poking around, failing to find the advantage, both Sierra and Genevieve getting annoyed by him doing so, but in my eyes, Andy's positives so far outweigh his negatives. The Gabler 2.0 trajectory is still very much on the table, but the important thing about the Gabler precedent is that the dunking on him did STOP at one point, and if Andy's continues for a couple more episodes, he'll be demoted to bad egg. With him finally catching onto Sam and Sierra, his winner story might be kicking into high gear very soon, if he can get them out.

To the chagrin of the Tuku tribe, Rachel has risen into the Good Noodle group, after being on the Edge of Extinction brink of elimination for weeks now. There has always been a little shred of something there for me for Rachel's edit, and it feels like never pulling the trigger and eliminating her is finally starting to pay off. We got a quiet yet healthy set up coming into the merge for Rachel last episode, and this episode was absolutely her break out! "But it was all circumstantial!!!" You know who else had a circumstantial break out? Erika! So the circumstance of her breakout certainly does not disqualify her. Rachel is talked up as a big threat, especially by Caroline. (I mean, the scene of Caroline talking with Tiyana convincing her to vote for Rachel is the highest anyone has been talked up all season.) Now that we have this Mermaid Dragon seed for Rachel, I'm so excited to see where her edit goes from here, and I have high hopes for her.

Now, onto our Bad Eggs.

Sue was one of the last people I expected to be here this week, and yet, here we are. Where the hell did Sue go? Why did she get a 0 confessional episode here? What? This was an awful week for Sue. She is one of 4 people vulnerable at tribal council, and someone she has wanted out for multiple episodes now, is gone, and we don't hear from her about it. We aren't reminded about her idol when it would've been reasonable for her to consider playing it giving the circumstances, she for the first time all season takes a total backseat to Caroline, and probably most damning, we never hear why she voted for Andy! We get a little bit from her in camp scenes, she talks about racketball, she talks about keeping Rachel comfortable (good job) and she talks a good amount at tribal council, but so did everyone. There's three reasons why I'm not just eliminating Sue off of this alone 1) Arguably the best pre-merge edit on the cast. 2) No content is better than bad content 3) There is someone else who I am LONG over due on eliminating.

Kyle has thrown a big obstacle in my Kyle Truther path this week. He really gets lost in the shuffle of this episode, gets content about wanting to stick with Tiyana and Rachel to take out Gabe, which there's not much to analyze there as that's pretty par for the course of what we know about Kyle's relationship with Tuku. We see Kyle cave and join in on the vote against Tiyana, after he was adamant about wanting Tiyana to stay, which is a knock against him and ultimately why he falls into the bad egg bunch this round. I'm not eliminating Kyle here, but he is gonna need a pretty damn good episode next week to stay.

Sam had nothing going on this week, which is bad for Sam, because the guy he thinks he's taking to the end as a goat just woke up and is trying to turn on him. In an unusually quiet episode for Sam, his only confessional this episode comes at the reward. He talks briefly about bonding with the Lavo's, he talks a LOT about being worried about Rachel going home, which I believe is the first mention of any relationship Sam has with Rachel, and is so odd off the tails of the Anika blindside. He ends on the note of wanting the reward six to stick together at the next vote in the event that Rachel goes home, and Rachel did not go home, so right now my guess is that this six will not be sticking together, and Sam and Sierra are in for a boot next episode. Oh, and perhaps the biggest dig against Sam was Caroline calling Rachel the glue of Gata. That was supposed to be Sam's whole thing, and it has been ripped away from him. Similarly to Kyle, Sam is going to need a miracle to stay alive next week.

Which of course leaves us with Gabe. I had a bit of a wake up call this week, starting shortly after my last post, where I was reading more of what people are saying edgically about Gabe, and ending with watching this episode. And that wake up call was that Gabe's edit is fucking terrible. Like it's actually horrible. If I'm not making this episode the nail in the coffin here, then I never would. In Episode 5, Gabe sets his sights on getting out Tiyana. In Episode 6, there is absolutely no follow up, we pretty much just hear about how Gabe wants to make big moves. Other people are excited to make the merge to meet new people, to strengthen their games, to set themselves up for the end game, Gabe is excited to be at the merge because now he can be on a Redditors fancast. This is objectively the wrong attitude. Finally, in this episode, Gabe actually succeeds in taking out Tiyana, and the alliance he formed early on with Caroline and Sue has payed off! In result, this episode was great for Gabe. Gabe is propped up as basically the main spokesperson against Rachel, and doesn't get any pre-tribal content about wanting Tiyana out despite his name VERY MUCH being out there, thanks to her. Hell, the fake target he throws to Rachel is Caroline. Why the fuck would he say Caroline? I think had I not been blinded by his VERY high-vis pre-merge, Gabe would already be gone. But, better late than never.

Gabe, the tribe has spoken.

Something I like tracking (and you might add it to your list) is the opening segment of the premiere. Specifically, everything you see and hear before Jeff says, “This is Survivor.” I find that it typically tells the story of the season.

E.G. 1 — S45

Survivor 45 opens with Jake (Lawyer), Jay Maya (Red), Bruce (Blue) flash on screen before Austin (Red) breaks a thing, and we see the water with the boats come in for the confessionals. Then there's a shot of the 45 flag, a bird takes flight and something smashes the yellow tribe logo (dun dun dun). This is followed by a montage while Jeff says “These 18 strangers blah blah blah.” cue short confessional. “The must learn to adapt (shot of mama J and Emily) or they'll be voted out” cue Kellie confessional. They set the 45 flag on fire, we see the Auction gavel. Jeff says, “In the end, only one (shot of Kaleb) will remain to claim the million dollar (Hannah rowing) prize.” Cue Dee's confessional. Finally, we see flashes of Katurah (Blue + Lawyer), Austin (red), Kendra (Blue), Bruce (Blue). Jeff says “Who will have what it take blah blah blah"

If you look as the book ends, it starts with a lawyer, someone from Blue and Red. Also, Bruce and Austin. And the segment ends with a lawyer, Bruce, someone from Blue and someone from red. And in the middle, yellow gets smashed. What did we have at FTC? A lawyer from blue, Austin, and someone from OG red.

E.G. 2 — S46

Survivor 46 starts with the monologue. The first faces we see are Kenzie (Purple), Ben (Green), and Soda (Orange).

We see the water with the boats come in for the confessionals. Then we have a quick montage of Venus and the Nami flag, Ben and the Siga Flag, and the Yanu flag with the entire boat of Yanu members. This is followed by a montage while Jeff says “These 18 strangers blah blah blah.” “They must learn to adapt (shot of Q) or they'll be voted out” cue Venus confessional. Water splashes on the 46 flag logo. Jeff says, “In the end, only one (shot of Hunter) will remain to claim the million (Ben) dollar (Jem) prize.” Cue Kenzie's confessional. Finally, we see flashes of Charlie (Green), Liz crying (Orange), Tevin (Orange), Liz's twin (Green). Jeff says “Who will have what it take blah blah blah".

If you look as the book ends, it starts with someone from each tribe. Purple, Green and Orange but ends with only people from green and orange because as we know, the purple tribe got almost eviscerated.

E.G. 3 — S47

Survivor 47 starts with voice-overs. Gabe (Blue), Aysha (Red), Rome (Red), Genevieve (Red). We see a row of torches and then the 47 logo gets set on fire. We see the water with the boats come in for the confessionals. Then we see the tattered flag. Jeff says “These 18 (red tribe on their boat. We see Teeny, Rome, and Gen) strangers (Yellow tribe walking Anika, Rachel, Sam and Andy) will be abandoned (We see blue tribe walking — all 5 that made the merge).” Cue Tiyana confessional (howls). She came to roll with the big dogs. Shot of Genevieve. “They must (TK getting slapped by water) learn to adapt (shot of Andy) or they'll be voted out (Jon).” Cue Jon confessional. "They want me to suffer." Shot of Sol (red)

“In the end (shot of Rachel, a woman from yellow), only one will remain (shot of Gabe) to claim the million dollar (Sierra, a woman from yellow) prize (Anika, a woman from yellow).” Cue Anika confessional. Cue Sue's confessional. "I'm 59 and I beat all your asses." and as she points to the imaginery Jurors we see flashes of Keyshan (red), Caroline (Blue), Teeny (Red), Sam (Yellow) and Rome (Red). Jeff says “Who will have what it takes, blah blah blah".

Looking at the book ends, it starts with 1 blue and 3 red (one of whom made the merge — Gen) and ends with 3 Red (one of whom made the merge — Teeny), 1 Blue and 1 Yellow.

Clearly the 4 Yellow are marching to war against 5 Blue on the beach (see above in the section about 18 strangers) with 3 Red on a boat in the water.

I'm not quite sure what to make of the 3 Red that pop up everywhere, but I am confident in predicting based on the above that sue will beat (at least) Caroline, Teeny, and Sam.

My current contenders are

1. Gabe/Andy

2. Teenie

Sue*? - that 0 confessional episode was not on.

Your thoughts are most welcome.

Hi everyone! I want to revisit my previous “final girl” analysis after the great info we’ve gotten in the last two episodes. 

First and foremost, the bat necklace! I was giddy at the immunity reveal in ep. 6. There are also the shots of bats in the intro being cut between shots of 3 (albeit 2/3 booted) women. Edit with a spooky vibe: confirmed. It’s most likely a silly coincidence, but still a fun one for me personally! 

But I do think the inclusion of the Black Widow Brigade clip while Teeny was talking about the women “eating the men” should not be ignored. We’ve seen potential women alliances fizzle out, but deliberately showing an image of four (iconic, mind you!) literal final girls right after taking out Eric in the way they did again affirms my faith in this narrative. Also makes me more inclined to think Teeny makes it to the final 4 given their narration. 

On to the potential final girls: 

• Gen: I feel more and more certain about having her in my number one spot. I think 6 and 7 were great episodes for her. Although Rome was her top ally, I think the closing points of her narrative with him ended with Anika’s vote out ep. We’re shown that she used him as an ally when he was in power, used that power to get out someone she saw as a threat, and willingly let him go when he lost that power and could no longer serve her survival. All while remaining a non-threat (that we know of) to the remaining Lavo members. And if Gen popped up on anyone’s radar after finding the challenge advantage, we didn’t see it. Even Sam’s reaction to the advantage was shown as more of a “golly gee I wish I checked that before” than a “I need to watch out for her.” And man, the image of her after the years-long immunity challenge next to the other very muddy contenders was so striking. For the latest ep, her conversation with Andy lays out her edit plain as day: Andy explicitly says she’ll be “like a big sneak attack in this game" and that he "didn't know [her] left from right. I didn't really know where she stood. I didn't know what her game plan was." That confessional seamlessly explains the exact narrative her edit has set up with her low visibility at the beginning of the season. This is also the second highly visible man with not the best social goodwill Genevieve is allying with—one character foil gone, another emerges from the ashes. Even though the convo connects to Andy’s post tribal narrative, the edit gave her a good amount of visibility and a new narrative thread in an episode where she didn’t go to tribal. 
• Sue: Not a great last couple of episodes for Sue unfortunately. Low visibility, with a strong emphasis on her staying tight with Gabe and no chance of changing that. The red paint debacle wasn’t great for her edit-wise with the music and Caroline and Tiyanna clocking her immediately. I’ve lost faith in her as a winner, but see finalist potential. 
• Caroline: That being said, I’m keeping an eye on Caroline more now. I think the whole red paint situation in ep. 6 was conversely a huge win for her. She’s shown as an observant, smart ally, who knows how to play her cards after discovering an ally with power/an idol. With Tiyanna out, Caroline is now the only other person who knows about the idol. Moving to ep. 7, I think her comment at tribal about “big moves not always being smart moves” explains her vote clearly. We see she understands Gabe’s threat level while also balancing the risk of abandoning her closest ally in Sue by voting for him. The willingness to use and eventually flip on Gabe when he no longer serves her survival, a willingness we should be seeing in Sue by now to fit the final girl edit, we see in Caroline. But there’s still a narrative thread left loose here. She either breaks out in a less context-relevant episode, or gets the Sierra treatment. Speaking of…
• Sierra: Oof. Her edit really just crashed and burned for me tbh. She’s shown as kowtowing to Sam’s alliance choice with the Anika vote, and her confessional in ep 7 felt like her wallowing in regret about keeping a “wild card” like Andy around instead of being willing to use him to her advantage. If she does push to the finals somehow, I don’t think she wins. 
• Teeny: As overall solid as their edit has been, Teeny was never given the male alliance foil I feel is needed to fit the final girl narrative. Kishan was booted too early and seemed like a genuinely close ally to her/not someone they would turn on in the near future. They had no agency in Kishan’s vote out, and they showed no willingness to flip on him. I think her connection to a potential women’s alliance and the overall edit indicate deep run but not a win. 
• Rachel: I need to see what the edit shows us of her next episode to start considering her more seriously. She seems like a great social player with the connections she’s made at social hour and post-merge, and I could see Sol becoming a potential ally and character foil after saving her with the advantage. But her narrative just doesn’t fit the storyline I’m feeling for this season. 

Right now I’m feeling like it’s Gen, Caroline, Teeny in the final 4, with another spot for a no-vote finalist (it’s between Sue or Sierra). Andy goes out at 6 or 5 due to some scheme the women's alliance concocts (connecting to the BWB parallels). Teeny is out at fire (given the “bad at fire”context from earlier this season). 

There was a scene this past episode where Sam, Sierra, Teeny, and Andy were playing baseball together which was interspliced with Sol walking off to read the advantage. In the scene, Sam is shown missing the ball, while Sierra gets a home run and runs all bases. This could be a visual clue that Sam will literally drop the ball and get voted out. Meanwhile, Sierra is able to do a Survivor home run and make it to the end of the game.

I was wondering how much stock to put into this scene? It could be footage just showing them having fun, while it could also mean more.

Were sue and Caroline present in that scene? How are folks interpreting this scene?

I'll preface this by saying my top 5 (or at least my #2-5) is very close considering that we are pushing past halfway. With that said, its quite clear to me now that the other 6 do not have a shot to win, and for the sake of fun I'm going to fully eliminate all 6 of them now and only consider winner contenders among my current top 5 for the rest of the season.

1: Caroline

It's inevitable that I would become the resident Caroline truther. What pushes Caroline above the other 4 this episode was the continued emphasis on her sympathetic nature through camera shots alone. Last week, when Rome opened up about his issues with self esteem, the focus of the scene seemed to be on Caroline being sympathetic towards him. Now, when Tiyana started crying over her anxiety about being voted out, emphasis was again put on Caroline, and even more so when Tiyana was voted out, the camera keeps returning to Caroline to show how much of a toll this is taking on her. Now this might not be considered winner content in just any season, but I think this content is really really good for Caroline considering this season's theme of community. Caroline is grappling with voting out a member of her tribe; she is the mother hen kicking one of the chicks out of the coop. Her place as my #1 contender will be cemented next episode if she offers a confessional about how she *feels* after the fracturing of the Tuku community. She has a really strong strategic base for her edit while being on the quieter side, but she isn't all strategy as some people have said about her. Also, when it comes to personal content, the vast majority of the cast hasn't gotten deep personal content about their home lives this season. I think it will come eventually, but a lack of knowledge about someone's home life shouldn't be a reason to count someone out this early, and this applies for several other contenders.

*One last big point*: I've already written most of this writeup and in the process I came to an epiphany, and as a result I now consider Caroline my clear #1. There are three trios currently in the game which have been identified as important, and guess what---Caroline is a part of ALL OF THEM. 1) Tuku 3: Gabe, Sue, Caroline. 2) Amulet holders: Teeny, Andy, Caroline. 3) "People playing Survivor during the Survivor Social": Teeny, Rachel, Caroline. And besides that, the Caroline and Sue duo has been fleshed out.

It would be pretty impossible to peg Caroline as the winner within the first few episodes and especially before the amulet journey, but even with that said I still wish I could've come to her sooner as a contender. But I'm there now.

2: Teeny

I guess I will keep Teeny in the number 2 spot and continue my pattern of having them in my top 2 the entire season. It's weird now though because I'm starting to have considerable doubts about Teeny. I think I feel just good enough still about Teeny to keep them at #2 but essentially tied with the next 3. For whatever reason I don't feel particularly moved by Teeny's edit from a winning standpoint. There's something not gritty enough about it to scream new era winner. Of course, Caroline's edit doesn't really have any clear negativity either, but Teeny's edit feels more so like it could fit a non-winning player. Perhaps Teeny wins, and the storyline makes perfect sense, because they fit all the themes and have consistent narration about their position in the game, motivations and strategy. On the other hand, I think it's possible that Teeny receives this strong of an edit in many different storylines and timelines---they're just so good of a narrator and a fan favorite player. I don't want to let that affect my placement of Teeny too much though. But so far, it just seems like pretty much the same thing each episode for Teeny. It's all really good stuff though, don't get me wrong.

3: Genevieve

Genevieve's episode I thought was pretty good and certainly solid enough for me to keep her in a high position. The connection with Andy was really big for both of them, they were very clearly identified as a new duo which will undoubtedly have a major impact on the season. I would have liked for Genevieve to talk even more about Rome going home, but she got to talk about it at the very least, and considering the time spent on her connection with Andy combined with her not going to tribal council, I see this episode fitting well into a possible Genevieve winning story.

4: Andy

This sub seems to be in a bit of a tailspin about Andy recently so I'm going to echo a comparison to a past player offered by Dan over at the Winner's Edit podcast. Andy is DAVID; he is the anxious start, unlikely contender who emerges as the dragon of the season and receives triumphant emotional music during his finale exit. I am very very high on Andy placing 4th or 5th specifically. With that said though, he could still win. His edit has took such a Maryanne-esque turn from kooky to strategy it's almost jarring. Again, I'll credit the Winner's Edit podcast for this--they argued coming into the merge that if Andy starts getting these super level headed strategy oriented confessionals, we must keep our eyes open. Andy was the benefactor of the new flashback editing technique introduced with the Genevieve breakout episode, and I think this matters a lot. I think it's pretty likely that Genevieve and/or Andy are the biggest strategic players of the season other than the winner, and perhaps even more so than the winner.

5: Rachel

Rachel is by far my biggest question mark right now and that's why I'm going to keep her in 5th position even though she is very much in the running now. The next couple of episodes I think will give me a much clearer picture of Rachel's fate in this game. She has gotten amazing content these past couple of episodes, exactly what you would want in a winner. She has also continually been shielded from negativity about being blindsided at the Anika vote. I can see the Erika angle for her as a winner contender, but I'm still quite uncertain. I honestly don't know what else to say, I wish I could better phrase my reasoning for keeping her in this spot. Maybe it has to do with her lack of early relationship emphasis, but I'm not even sure I can say that. We understood that she had a relationship with Andy, the breadwinners' alliance...but I feel like if she was to win, the way the Gata relationships have been portrayed especially during the premerge would look quite different. Perhaps I would also use the word circumstantial to describe Rachel’s uptick. My thoughts on Rachel are definitely open to critique and I'm open to hearing what people have to say about her chances as of now.

Newly eliminated: everybody else

Sue: It wasn't even the 0 confessional episode, I've been pretty iffy on Sue all season. As strongly as I feel about Caroline winning, I feel even more strongly about Sue being a close second. Sue is certainly not a close second in terms of chances to win from an edgic standpoint, but I believe Sue will be literally very close to winning.

Sierra: Yikes, she got dragged as much as Sam did during that Andy segment...her premerge was kinda good before the Anika boot, but since then she's been getting dogged on consistently.

Really don't have anything to say about why Gabe, Kyle, Sam and Sol aren't winning, at least nothing I haven't said before.

Next episode predictions: Given how much stock was put into Andy's strategy at the beginning of this episode without him going to tribal, I think there will be major payoff next week. I'm calling it that one of Sam or Sierra goes home next week.

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https://preview.redd.it/9ujl8s7m27yd1.jpg?width=8606&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=05ea830ed289aa417e7ae72589bf9d1601d76c97

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Teeny - Decent episode for them and Teeny being the #1 spot is mostly a very safe pick as everyone else has major holes which kinda makes that Teeny’s major hole in my eyes. We get them talking about the women’s alliance and how they want to make it happen setting up a long term gameplan for Teeny through the merge. I’m still a bit weary as their edit is very solid, but I don’t think it’s out of the question as Yam Yam’s was also solid but idk.

Andy - Sierra calls out Andy for being sloppy again, but I think it further reiterates that he can’t trust Sierra and Sam, BUT Genevieve also says that Andy needs to be more careful which could be bad for him. More and more i’m seeing major red flags in his edit where he still is getting undermined content and they didn’t put in the schoolyard pick scene where he was the last pick, but I think his edit is a bit stronger than Genevieve’s because she didn’t get introduced in episode 1.

Genevieve - Good rebound from the Rome boot where she mentions it where survivor sometimes doesn’t get the chance for losing contestants to talk about their close allies getting voted out. She is set up in a very good position in the game and edit to go far. It feels wrong to have her at #2, but everyone else is worse. I still think that it’s bad that the first 3 episodes she was pretty much invisible and then most of her content revolves around Rome and was somewhat circumstantial.

Rachel - Good Episode and could set up something, but I think she is being set up as more of a threat. Everyone talks about how smart and sociable she is and also is the glue guy all of the sudden which if she won I think she would be more prominent in the premerge edit.

Caroline - I’m still not seeing the Caroline vision. This episode somewhat proves Gabe in that he controls the girls. Now this could shift in the next episode with the women’s alliance being set up, but still skeptical because of this and the low visibility overall like we know very little about her persoanlly which every single new era winner has had significant personal content at this point (and I have the same problem with Genevieve but I think her edit is stronger).

Sue - Pretty damning that she got no confessionals and Gabe said that Sue will do anything he wants and is correct. I couldve made a case for her if Gabe got eliminated but Tiyana did, one of the only people we know she is targeting. I think she’s going to be a losing finalist.

Kyle - Kyle is only this high because I see glimpses of a winner’s edit, but I feel like he would het much more if he won because of his archetype and he doesn’t really speak about the strategy on this vote that much where I question weather he could win.

Gabe - Could be the first negative tone winner of the new era maybe lol. Gabe is probably giving them villainous content which they’re using, but they could also give him positive content which is why I’m not really considering him.

Sierra - Still kinda a secondary to Sam and also her blindspot is Andy where she continues to underestimate him.

Sam - I think he’s probably going to be voted out soon and other than that I don’t think his edit is that good currently.

Sol - Keeps getting circumstantial content and doesn’t have any real substance.

Orginial post

Andy is NEXT~!!!!

Andy. I see a lot of supporters for Andy as a winner contender, and I feel that totally ignores that his edit is extremely similar to other zero vote finalists in the new era.

Ben, Jake, Carolyn, and Owen all had similar “rootable underdogs who are constantly undermined and the cast clearly does not respect” edits. They were all central to the story telling of the season, all had high visibility, and all were clearly edited to be viewed favorably by the audience.

In the new era, I feel like the zero vote finalist edit has become the easiest to see of every placement, and Andy fits it to a tee. The cast clearly does not respect him and is just keeping him around because he is ultimately unimportant to the end game.

This week, I watched the whole thing again. I decided to cut every contender who had a late intro in the premiere, or an episode without a confessional. Sad goodbye to Caroline, Rachel, and Genevieve, leaving me with Andy, Teeny, and Sue. Sue getting skunked last night knocks her completely out of contention.

#1. Andy (90%)

Last week, Andy was my top contender. After the “blindsides are fun” comment at tribal, I was wavering, but it looks like the votes he got were sobering. He found two new allies in Genevieve and Sol, and the NTOS suggests he will flip on Sam/Sierra. There is so much time/plot spent on the Sam/Andy relationship, and multiple mentions of Chekov’s not so secret idol, this feels a lot like Ellie/Gabler. Similar to Baka, Gata is also the Complex Tribe.

On rewatch, Andy very much feels like the Main Character. He gets a lot of personal content and his personal story is literally the theme of this season. A big focus of Jeff’s community speech is the need for community and belonging. This is Andy’s personal backstory he reveals at the Mat Chat (struggling to fit in) and the main focus of the premiere episode is Andy finding his “community” on Gata.

In Andy’s mat chat, he talks about trying unsuccessfully to fit in with a group in high school by pretending to be someone he wasn’t, but later on, he says being himself is what drew his people to him.

On Gata, Sam and Sierra are viewed by the other tribes as “Ken and Barbie”, the popular kids, the athlete and beauty queen running the show. Andy tries to fit in with them, but they just see him as a disposable number. Sierra, in particular, would have been in a MUCH better position keeping Anika over Andy and openly resents him. This is High School Andy, trying to fit in where he doesn’t belong.

At the merge, Andy catches votes because Sam is fine throwing him under the bus when his name comes up, then tells Sol that Andy is the backup and to vote for him. After talking to Sol, Andy now realizes Sam was never really loyal to him, and needs to find the people who are his people.

Andy links up with Sol, who was in a similar position on Lavo, and Genevieve, who LIKES working with a messy player. The plan is to get out Sam. Andy has found his people in the game, and has a path forward.

Andy also gets a significant amount of strategic content, and we know where his head is at every point. His strategic confessionals are treated seriously, similar to Gabler. He is not only hyper aware of his position, he is very much playing his position. He is a unique personality with a unique approach to the game, another big theme this season.

Andy is a wackadoodle with some wackadoo in his edit, but so were Maryanne and Gabler. Like Gabler, I think Andy is an unconventional winner with a very conventional edit. Like Maryanne, I think he is going to be able to tell an amazing story, and convincingly verbalize his strategy at FTC, based on the kinds of confessionals he gives.

In the beginning of episode seven, Andy gets an extended Come to Jesus sequence of flashbacks and confessionals, reassessing his alliances and place in the tribe and how to move forward. This is very reminiscent of both Maryanne (who realized she was on the bottom at this point) and Gabler (who realized Ellie and Jeanine were not with him at the beginning of the merge).

Getting a flashback at the beginning of the episode after the Mergeatory has been a winner edit hallmark in the New Era. Erika, Gabler, Yam Yam and Dee all got one.

If Andy is NOT the winner, I think he is either a losing finalist (Carolyn edit), or people start to notice he’s playing a good game/has too good of a story and vote him out 5th/6th/7th place (Emily, Goddess of Growth edit).

#2. Teeny (9.99%)

Although Teeny is not from the complex tribe, before this episode I could see a world where the pre-merge dynamics on Red just didn’t end up mattering very much. I think Teeny sees themself as a free agent, but with Genevieve and Sol being set up with future plot, their relationships with Gen/Sol seems like they should be more fleshed out.

Teeny’s strategy is to try and be everyone’s number one. Creating immediate rapport is very easy for them. Everyone wants to work with Teeny. Caroline suggests burning the idol on them. Rome has to get by burned by Teeny more than once to turn on them.

Genevieve blindsided Teeny, taking out their number one, and is still like “my closest ally is Teeny”. I love you Parvati 3.0, but no, girl, no.

Teeny is also someone who is unique and not afraid to stand out, but easily fits in at the same time. We get a lot of strategic content from Teeny. Not as much personal content as we get with Andy, but we do get some.

Teeny also feels like MAIN CAST. Maybe not top billing, but definitely second billing.

Rewatching episode two after they get the flint, I noticed a throw away comment from Teeny about being able to get a spark, but not able to build up a lasting fire. This could be a metaphor for their game overall (makes easy connections, but alliances fall apart). It could also be a hint they lose in final four fire making. Sierra has hints that she is the fire making winner.

If Teeny is not the winner, I think they are the Fallen Angel and/or firemaking loser.

#3. Gabe (.01%)

Imo, Tuku is NOT the complex tribe. Although we know how people are connected, we don’t have the DEPTH in these relationships like we get on Gata.

However, Gabe had a good night. He has mat chat. He has a confessional every episode. He has negativity, but it’s a lot more subjective to the viewer, unlike Sam’s.

My main issue with Gabe is thematic. He doesn’t need community, he sees people as chess pieces to manipulate. When you put the game ON TOP of the community, maybe seeing people as chess pieces is an advantage. Who knows?

Gabe’s Mat Chat sounds like something an Assistant Manager would say in a start of shift meeting before locking himself in his office for the next several hours to do “paperwork”. It isn’t about the community, it is about the work they are doing for him while he is off doing his own thing.

Gabe also fails on the uniqueness front, explicitly patterning his game after Russel Hantz.

He’s a long shot, but he checks enough boxes to be considered a dark horse. Maybe community is NOT the point if you have your Dumb Bird alliance. Maybe.

#Everyone else:

I love Gen, would LOVE to see her win, but her bad early vis is insurmountable. Not just in the New Era, but in ANY era. I don’t buy shielding her because of the Rome connection.

Production clearly LOVES Rome, and Genevieve is basically taking on her second Messy Boi with Andy. It’s, like, HER THING. I think if she were winning with the Messy Boi strategy (I love it, it’s giving Parvati 3.0), we would get MORE early Messy Boi relationship with Rome, not less.

My prediction is that Genevieve is the DRAGON, going out in 5th/6th/7th.

I love Sol, he is the personal fave of my heart this season, but he is also dead in the water. No explanation needed.

I think Caroline and Rachel get sniped for being obvious threats.

Caroline is an obvious Glue Gal and strategic mastermind. They all kinda defer to her on Tuku.

Rachel is a puzzle BEAST on the level of Erika/Sandra/Boston Rob. She is going to get sniped before end game.

Sam and Sierra have been BURIED, but I think Sierra could sneak by with Sam/Rachel out and win fire. I just don’t think she will win the game (late intro/inconsistent edit).

Sue got skunked in an episode where she should have been central if she were winning. Could potentially be a losing finalist. I think the edit wants us to respect Sue’s game and think she has a shot, similar to Carolyn in 44.

Kyle’s edit inconsistent and he got skunked.

Rachel

I think this episode has put Rachel in as a good dark horse contender for me she gets set up as someone who can win and as someone who is very social by gabe and Caroline, we know she will be an important member of the girls alliance going forward if they end up getting together also there’s a good chance that a bond with her and sol will be formed because of the advantage.

It reminds me a lot of Kenzies edit where there are constantly people telling us she’s a threat when she doesn’t exactly come across that way on the screen. I’m not saying she like my winner pick or anything but she’s definitely not out of it.

Notes on the Boot: My prediction for Tiyana has been that she would be blindsided, maybe by Kyle, for being a social threat due to her ability to get on with men and women, within that theme of community. That did not come true this episode (though it may through confessional next ep).

Reminder about my system -- I score each player: 0-3 on each of 3 themes in their edit, 0-3 on the relevance of their individual theme to that theme in the context of the season**.** These are the themes:
1. Community (duh)
2. Anchor: Are they keeping a wildcard around, being cautious of one, or being one? And if they are one, are they self-aware?
3. Self-Perception: Does this player know how they come across? Theme of coming in thinking you'd play one way, and instead playing another.

OUT:
Gabe (1/18) -- Community (0, 2) Anchor (1, 2) Self-Perception (0, 2)
Gabe's line about seeing people as tools directly contrasts Teeny's quote about seeing people as people, and the theme of community overall. His consistent demonstration of all themes in a negative way still makes me think he's a losing finalist.
Win Equity: 1/9, Relevance: 6/9

Sol (5/18) -- Community (1, 1) Anchor (1, 0) Self-Perception (2, 0)
Sol's story is that he's competent, but not that he's winning.
Win Equity: 4/9, Relevance: 1/9

Kyle (6/18) -- Community (1, 0) Anchor (1, 1) Self-Perception (2, 1)
Kyle needs an early confessional next episode to stay in for me.
Win Equity: 4/9, Relevance: 2/9

Sam (6/18) -- Community (0, 0) Anchor (1, 2) Self-Perception (1, 2)
Sam was highlighted as a threat again, and we still have little sense of how he fits into the new merge dynamics. There's some leftover positive to him intentionally distancing himself from Andy, but he hasn't claimed any ownership of that, and this episode made him look bad. It's nearing the end for him.
Win Equity: 2/9, Relevance: 4/9

LONG SHOT:
Sierra (8/18) -- Community (2, 1) Anchor (2, 0) Self-Perception (2, 1)
We had a throwaway line about Sierra being close with Rachel, and she was protected from Andy's trash-talking which focused on Sam, but Sierra is a side character.
Win Equity: 6/9, Relevance: 2/9

Teeny (9/18) -- Community (3, 1) Anchor (0, 0) Self-Perception (3, 2)
I'm less up on Teeny than many people are, because despite her screentime, I don't feel like there's much of a storyline for her, and I think she exists to prop other characters up. I'm sticking to my prediction that she gets far, but not to FTC, and is thus being shown as competent but not relevant to central themes.
Win Equity: 6/9, Relevance: 3/9

Rachel (10/18) -- Community (2, 2) Anchor (2, 2) Self-Perception (1, 1)
This was a great episode for Rachel, but I'm still of the opinion she doesn't have consistent enough content to win. Rachel was highlighted as a social threat and called the "glue" of Gata, but I don't think the edit has backed up Caroline's evaluation of her throughout the season.
Win Equity: 5/9, Relevance: 5/9

Caroline (10/18) -- Community (2, 2) Anchor (1, 3) Self-Perception (1, 1) ** MY DARK HORSE PICK
For Caroline to remain a contender, I need to see her comment on how she comes across or see more SPV about her in either direction. This episode was bad for her -- she likes Rachel and thinks she's the glue despite Rachel being the only Gata who we have no relationship insights on, and she can't get Rachel out. She has reservations on Gabe as an anchor but doesn't take him out. Eventually, I think Gabe is going to take Caroline out.
Win Equity: 4/9, Relevance: 6/9

Contenders:
Genevieve (11/18) -- Community (3, 2) Anchor (2, 2) Self-Perception (1, 1)
Genevieve had a great episode -- with some important community relationships like Caroline/Rachel turning out to be moot, Genevieve's connections with Sol and Andy may propel her there. I still think being so invisible at the start ruins her.
Win Equity: 6/9, Relevance: 5/9

Sue (13/18) -- Community (2, 1) Anchor (2, 2) Self-Perception (3, 3)
I want to like Sue's edit, but I feel like she's made to look like she has no real sway, and her edit is entirely about being underestimated -- which makes me start to question if a jury will vote for her. Some growing of your threat level is necessary.
Win Equity: 7/9, Relevance: 6/9

Andy (15/18) -- Community (2, 2) Anchor (3, 3) Self-Perception (1, 2)
Recently, Andy has received less negative SPV and has been shown to grow in the current community -- maybe this is the story of him completely flipping on Gata, and the negativity at the beginning was to set the ground for that to happen.
Win Equity: 8/9, Relevance: 7/9

I'm starting to think of Andy, Genevieve, and Caroline as my top picks due to a combination of some consistency/presence -- but more importantly -- because other players see them as contenders. We haven't seen that with Sue -- and I'm wondering if maybe she's an FTC loser.

Andy and Genevieve

SO, i am full convinced that Andy is gonna win. And if he not win is gonna be the fallen angel of the season.

First of all, the Andy-Gene reletionship was foreshadow since the beginning. When Andy speak about himself and his insecuritys always Gene face is shows having empaty with Andy. The most obvius one is the rockdraw scene where gene explicty show empaty for him (i don't think this being cut is Bad for Andy chance. And i have My reasons). So probably this relationship is gonna be important to the season, being Andy the character with more complex relationships on the season.

Next is Genevieve. She is always shows positively, the show never stop focus in Genevieve in some ways (at least the edit show her) she is never really purple. And the more importan thing is they shows Gene like a good and strong player, an UTR threath Who is gonna be dangerous. The statemeant for Kishan was really a foreshadow her own role in the late Game. I think Gene is gonna be the final boss of the season and what convinces me of this is the Challenge and post challenge of this week episode. Genevieve was very highlithted in the challenge and post challenge she days about how surprise she about winning, this is super odd if Genevieve was not setting for being a challenge beast and a all round threat in the future (Why just her? Teeny not was good in challenges too). I think the reasons why Gene's relationships were not devoloped in pre merge is bc THEY ARE NOT IMPORTANT. The really important relationship of Gene is with Andy, thats bc they always shows Gene when Andy is taking. The only person Who can perceive the UTR threath is Gene's closet allie, Andy.

Now, My last point is the dodo music and the edit dunk on Andy. This is in my opinion bc they want a sloppy winner. The edit want to shows how Andy although being sloppy can make his path to the victory. Even using his sloppiness like an advantage, being sloppy is a path to the win.

Andy resemble all the season theme and thats because he is My front runner. His relationship with Gene is a path for Andy after he mastermind the Sam boot.

what is happening?? i guess i feel best about caroline right now, but i'm truly not out out on anyone besides maybe gabe and sierra (and i just don't see it for andy the way most of this sub seems to). i'm not sure i even really see it for sam anymore either, but i'm keeping him in contention until the wheels fall off. this season is so exciting and keeps me guessing!

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After last night's 0 confessional Sue episode, I see some people pointing to Erika as an example of a winner getting a 0-conf episode as evidence of why this isn't a death knell for Sue. While I'm not 100% writing Sue off, I think it's important to look at how the editors moved forward from Erika with the other new era winner edits after the reception to 41 - last season we got our most visible female winner of all time. My gut is telling me that the editors are most likely not going to give their winner a 0 confessional episode now, PARTICULARLY in an episode where they go to tribal. Would love to hear an argument as to why this would make sense (particularly for Sue, who's a fun presence on screen), but for me the logic is not logicking.

A bit of an odd decision to have the mergatory post-merge, but at least we know there is not going to be a double boot episode this season now. Tiyana's downfall was heavily foreshadowed, and it makes complete sense that we kept revisiting Tuku's tribe dynamics knowing that they were going to have a second post-merge tribal council. I think given the Black Widow shout-out we can safely say that we are getting another women's alliance that is going to dominate the game, and since all five remaining men have had their downfalls foreshadowed, I have decided to eliminate each and every one of them heading into our post-merge stretch.

I present to you my new theory - the tied fates theory. As I stated, each of the post-merge men has had their downfall foreshadowed, but what I find interesting is that each of these downfalls is directly tied to one of the women (or Queen Andy).

• Rome was immediately burned by Teeny when they showed Kishan his idol box. Since then, Teeny desperately wanted him out, but due to his advantages they had to cut Aysha over him. Rome then flipped on them, taking out their number one Kishan. At the merge, Teeny took the opportunity to finally get rid of Rome.
• Sam wanted to be the glue guy of his tribe, and picked up Andy from the bottom in order to form a new majority with him and Sierra. However, Sam failed to tell Andy about his idol, and at the merge offered up Andy to the slaughter, which Andy has now caught wind of and wants to blindside Sam.
• Andy is plotting the downfall of Sam, Sierra's closest ally. If he succeeds, Sierra is going to want to take revenge on Andy, and has the potential to use the women's alliance against him to do so. She has been the one to dunk on Andy throughout the season so far, constantly calling him sloppy and feeling like she cannot trust him enough to work with him. Rachel also has her gripes with Andy, getting annoyed with the fact that a woman is forced to manage a man's feelings in the premiere. He also took her spot in the alliance with Sam and Sierra, causing her to lose her number one Anika, so we know she is also out for revenge.
• Gabe has been underestimating Sue and Caroline throughout the pre-merge, and while Sue is indeed loyal to him, Caroline is secretly a huge threat that he might not see coming. He believes he has her in his pocket, but she is playing her own game and wants to cut him when the time is right.
• Kyle wrote down Sue's name at the second tribal council, and since then she has wanted her revenge on him. Their rivalry was followed up on last week when Sue wanted to get rid of Kyle, but he beat her in a head to head in the immunity challenge, so she lost her opportunity. We know that she still wants him out.
• Finally, Sol is desperately trying to cling on to the game, and Genevieve has been forced to keep working with him, despite telling us that she doesn't want to work with Sol long term and doesn't trust him. We know that they are both currently searching for new allies to build alliances, but it seems unlikely that they will ever be able to get on the same page.

It is also possible that one of Rachel/Sierra could also end up being the downfall of Sam too, but I think its clear that the show is definitely teeing up each of the remaining women to have their girl boss moment, taking down a man who stands in their way. One of the remaining six women is going to win Survivor 47, but which of them will it be?

Who are my top contenders? ...

1. Teeny. (-) Say it ain't so. I really hope the editors' solution to the Kenzie edit isn't 'do the same but less' because honestly Teeny's edit is Tommy levels of obvious. At least they're quirky so it doesn't come across as dull. But every episode we check in with them, we hear their overall strategy, and their edit hits all the notes and checks all the boxes. They even got the key confessional discussing the history of women's alliances. Teeny's edit predates the typical New Era style, so there is a chance of an upset, but I think if I am looking at the edit as objectively as possible, they are the most likely winner of the season.

2. Rachel. (-) Rachel got a very circumstantial episode, but a very strong circumstantial episode nevertheless. We heard about her strategy, she got some excellent SPV that was glowingly positive, there was a fair amount of personal content mixed in about her feelings on leaving the game pre-jury, and crucially she was the first to bring up the women's alliance. A lot of Rachel's relationships have been perhaps unnecessarily fleshed out, we see that she is ok with Sam and Sierra again and has in roads with Caroline, Teeny, and Genevieve. Sol's decision to give Rachel the advantage was foreshadowed as a potential mistake for him, choosing not to make relationships that could help him in the game, and instead saving Rachel, who is a huge threat (as was reiterated to us multiple times.) She also got referred to as being the GLUE of the Gata tribe, which despite being an incorrect read from Caroline, it has clearly been used here to indicate the continuation of the glue guy story line, and about her forging a new community with the women. I might go as far to say that this episode makes her strong opening to the merge episode last week seem not circumstantial, as you could argue that all of that content could have been placed in this week's Rachel-centric one instead. I still need more and to see how this plays out, but the start to Rachel's merge has been perfect for me following a big premiere, the recreated rice in the pocket moment, and shielding from Anika's boot pre-merge.

Who else is a contender? ...

• Genevieve. (-) Another great episode from Genevieve here, scooping up Andy as a replacement Rome and giving us the confessional about ditching Rome that I was missing from the merge episode last week. There's not much else to say, other than that she would be a top contender and an easy number two for me if it weren't for her low visibility for the first three episodes. Her start to the season would be extremely unconventional for a winner's edit. My gut feeling is final boss, because Genevieve came to PLAY.

• Sierra. (+1) This was a better episode for Sierra, but not a good enough one to make me put my tin foil hat back on. HOWEVER, I do think this was a much better episode for Sierra than a lot of people seem to. Her first confessional was very typical for a winner's edit, where she told us that she made the merge and she feels great about it. I think the fact that it was a pretty 'nothing' confessional and had no business being there is a point in her favour. Others on this subreddit seem to believe her second confessional about Andy being sloppy was bad for her game seeing as he is pulling the strings to flip on Gata without her knowing, but in isolation with the scene the confessional was in, Sierra was objectively right. Andy was being sloppy. He got caught, and he didn't get the advantage, and as Genevieve said 'if you are going to get caught, you better make sure you find the advantage'. Andy did not find it, Sol did. Furthermore, there were multiple scenes throughout the episode that foreshadowed Sierra winning, throwing her hands up in a champion pose etc. The most obvious was when she hit a 'home run' during the makeshift baseball game. All of this to say my gut is still pushing me towards Sierra, but I agree that her edit has not been good enough at this point for me to put her above Teeny, Rachel, or Gen.

• Caroline. (+1) If this was a competition for who can convince me they are the smartest player on the island through their confessionals and game play, Caroline would be the sole Survivor. Unfortunately, the edit is not hyping her up anywhere near as much as it should be. It felt like she finally overtook Sue as their duo's spokeswoman this round, but I still don't think her content is up to scratch as the main strategic force of Tuku, especially given that she was their quietest member overall premerge. However, she is still in the game, and she beat my intro theory. Caroline was not the third woman to not make the jury. It should have been Tiyana's face in the opening sequence. So what does this mean? Could she still go home before we get our all-female final five? Could she get sniped out and the women have to avenge her? Or is she a stealthy winner that Aysha and Anika are 'looking up to?' I have no idea. Caroline's edit leaves me at a loss, and although my gut instinct is that her edit is patchy at best, I can't rule her out just yet.

Who is unlikely to be a contender? ...

• Sue. (-2) If r/edgic did a post-episode vote for player rankings like the main sub does, Sue would be Loser Of The Week. This was about as bad of an episode that a contender like Sue could get. One of her major story lines concluded. All three of her other story lines came into play. AND SHE WAS SILENT. At Part 2 of a merge episode. This couldn't have been worse, and makes everything from last week look even more circumstantial. No closure to the Tiyana rivalry, nothing to say about Gabe and her idol, no irritation about Kyle being immune. She just followed Gabe, and in his words 'did exactly what he _______ said'. Sue's not beating the little bird allegations, and that is what her story is all about. It made it look like Caroline is the one who is truly being underestimated, not Sue. The only saving grace for her is that this was shielding because whatever happened would make Sue look bad. But I'm very close to eliminating her from contention.

Who have I eliminated? ...

• Andy. (+2) Andy gets a bump for the continuation of his strong story line, which will clearly have a major impact on the trajectory of the game. However, ultimately being the new Rome is not the place you want to be. And Genevieve's SPV of him was far from positive. This isn't someone finally being seen for their worth, this is players realising that if Sam isn't going to drag Andy further into the game, then they may as well do it themselves. Andy will be the downfall of Sam, I'm certain of that, but my gut feeling is that Sierra might just come for revenge.
• Gabe. (-1) This was not a good episode for Gabe. Even though he came out on top, he continues to show that he underestimates his little birds and lacks the nuance of the social game. His head is on the chopping block and I think we are all just waiting for the guillotine to fall at this point.
• Sam. (-1) I think Sam is about as dead in the water as you can get for an edit. His win conditions were set up by himself clearly at the start of the game. Be the glue guy, keep everyone together, use the people on the bottom to your advantage. He has failed to meet all of those goals, and now Andy is coming for him, a loaded weapon for the women to use to take out the biggest male threat on the board.
• Sol. (+1) Loved the Sol content this episode! While he did get a new story line, which was needed after Rome's boot last week, I think it spells the beginning of the end for him. In choosing to save Rachel, he has (in his own words) opted to save a threat who does not benefit him over making a new relationship that will help him get further in the game, and so unfortunately I think Sol will be at the top of the women's hitlist eventually, but I think he could last a while yet.
• Kyle. (-1) Kyle is becoming that guy. He's screwed the second that that immunity necklace comes off of his neck.

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Survey

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ummm what the fuck!

episode thoughts: i knew tiyana wasn't long for this world, but the editors really did a ridiculously good job making her exit feel like a seriously unexpected gutpunch (hence the positive). i knew the deal was sealed for her when she started crying... what the fuck! that was so fucking brutal. and i would definitely put her on the precipice of being considered 'twist-screwed', although nowhere nearly as badly as rachel would've been if she didn't get twist-saved - can the twists just fuck off for a bit? thanks.

in the meantime - i think my top 4 is pretty solid, and im very close to feeling comfortable discounting pretty much everyone else.

non-contenders

gabe (11th) - ugh hes so slimy!!! his unrootability factor was dialed up to 11 this episode, which im sure is part of his character, but its there nonetheless. he sinks down to the very bottom because 1. he didn't feel nearly relevant enough for someone who was a target for a good portion of the episode and 2. i mean just look at the guy!! we aren't meant to root for him!!! and we had caroline basically spell out his threat level to us. he's also never been particularly complex in his narration or character unless entirely needed, as his confessionals and portrayal has basically been brittled down to 'two-faced villain.' i think he's entertaining to keep around for a bit longer but i'm so so so happy to write him off for good now.

sierra (10th) - she thinks andy is really sloppy and dislikes having him as an ally. that was the extent of her content this week. thanks sierra, you told us that 4 weeks ago and we all put you in our top 3. be original!!!

sol (9th) - present, and completely changed the boot in its entirety, but had someone else found that advantage he would barely be in this episode at all. poor guy can't seem to cop anything but circumstantial shit. i am pleased he's lasted this long though.

kyle (8th) - i think it goes without saying that hes tremendously cute and probably my favourite new-era 'golden boy' thus far. but his content is so like whatever. hopefully we get some lamentations on tiyana next ep.

sam (7th) - uh oh! he got seen through the omniscient flashback eye and it wasnt pretty. i think the glue is well and truly unstuck now. we know he is a solid narrator, but teeny basically stole all of his "i'm not doing anything this episode but let me talk anyways" content that we're used to him having a share of. bad sign for sam.

sue (6th) - i'm selling my sue stock. i knew i shouldn't have trusted yall omg... where did her idol go???? where did her idol go??? what?? where did SUE go???? borderline INVISIBLE this episode, was hardly involved in any of the strategy.... what the hell? How are you going to be one of four people vulnerable at a tribal council where you hold an idol and be that irrelevant??? i do feel harsh dogging on this episode when two of my top 4 are pretty grim in the content department themselves, but like.... omg?

andy (5th) - if a mans winning this season its probbbbbabbbbllyyyyy andy, but even then im still doubtful. he's kind of like gabe, but we actually feel for him a bit. idk. a lot of negative spv, a lot of strategic content, some affirmative content as well?? EXTRA NOTE: the deleted schoolyard pick scene is a bit of a blow for me too. that speech he delivered seemed basically perfect for his narrative.

contenders

caroline (4th) - is it controversial if i say this wasn't that good of an episode for caroline? she stays in 4th just because i think she got enough complex strategic content to warrant a CP rating. but idk. its geniunely so hard to form judgements on caroline just because i don't really know what good caroline content looks like yet. if i can give her anything, its that shes been the most consistent edit by a long shot in a season where the edit just seems to throw the middle finger to consistency in its entirety.

rachel (3rd) - almost moved her up but theres no denying that her content was almost entirely circumstantial. however i certainly agree that the amount of positive spv she got was definitely ALOT in that theres a world where should she get one or two more scenes or get some more heroic music she would be in contention for a CPPP. once again it feels good to be a rachel truther (ignore ep 3) but is this the end of her story - she scraped her way to the jury from the bottom - or is this the start of rachel dominance? ugh. once again we won't know till next week. EXTRA NOTE: SHE'S THE GLUE GUY??????? i have no idea how much this idea of glue will actually stick in the grand scheme of things, but that caroline confessional got my heart pounding. she's the glue guy!!?!?!?!?!

genevieve (2nd) - basically a better caroline where she got non-circumstantial but lowkey complex strategy and once again, a lot of close-ups to remind us about how hilariously charismatic her expressions are on TV. idk. genevieve vibes train keeps rolling.

teeny (1st) - got the first confessional of the ep, which is always a bonus. im probably being generous with the complex rating, but i feel like a bit of a broken record at this point: teeny's very likable, teeny's a fantastic narrator, teeny's always present but barely relevant to the actual plot of the episode. thats a social winner tick tick tick tick tick. in saying that, the things that people find doubt in teeny for, such as the overexposure and the lack of any serious negative content (although would you not consider kishan's boot and the aftermath 'negative content?') is something i still definitely have considered.

Anyways thanks please comment lmk clickbait title sorrry Bye

I keep seeing a lot of people ask what Genevieve’s story is if she were to win, and I wanted to do a little dive on what I think it could be. A confessional that always stuck out to me from the season was her breakout episode in which we hear her say something along the lines of:

“Kishan is the player you don’t notice is controlling the game until it is too late.” This quote is introduced on an episode where we see GENEVIEVE herself control every aspect of the game from nearly completely out of the blue, that the edit did not show was coming.

I think this is her story combined with the ability to form “community” with people that nobody else will. She has had two confessionals now regarding Andy and Rome that come directly after other players dogging on their respective personality and talking about how they would never work with them. After each of these, she points out how she sees a moment of humanity in them that makes her want to bring them in. Genevieve is able to build community with people that others cannot.

Back to her ability to be the player that people do not realize is in control until it is too late. Genevieve has not been clocked as a strategic threat by another player in a single moment on the show thus far. People who say she is receiving the “Dragon” edit I would ask, would an uninvolved viewer feel any type of way about her leaving? No. Rather, her story continues to build and her level headedness continues to shine. I believe that players such as Rachel are much more likely to be portrayed as the dragon as we are continually told she is a threat.

Getting to her negatives, I do believe that Teeny is the losing firemaker due to her edit. Genevieve and Teeny’s relationship is not fleshed out at all. Truly, Genevieve’s personal relationships are not fleshed out with hardly anyone besides Andy right now. I see an arch where people grow to recognize her throughout the game, or Andy being her gamble that doesn’t pay off in the end and she leaves because of it. This could be slightly foreshadowed by her confessional of desiring to keep Andy calm in which we see he is clearly not.

I do think if you are honed in on Genevieve's edit from the start like I admittedly was as a delusional Genevieve truther since day one, every moment has built on the other. She's been proven right in every major way that is important, and she hasn't been shown incorrect in a narrative quite yet. Combine that with all of the seemingly meaningless focus she has camera wise, and I could see a real path if we start getting fed droplets of other players beginning to slowly recognize her as a threat. She is forging her path by building community in the places people least expect it to be built.

Bonus random thoughts since this is my first write up and I thought I would share: Sue to me is a clear FTC loser to me long before this episode. We are clearly supposed to root for her and be connected to her story. However, I believe the viewers are being shown a much more favorable view of her game than people on the island have of her. I see her confessionals picking up again in the future, but it is clear to me her story will be seen by the viewers as an inspiration with potential to win, but in actuality on the island her game will not be respected (or articulated) in the same way. It seems the interactions we have seen lack some tact and like others have shown, I don't see her communicating her game well in a FTC format. Anyways! Wanted to offer up a potential arch if we were to see a Genevieve win (which I would absolutely die if we did).