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CALL TO ACTION: Spread the word about /r/DebtStrike. If you moderate a subreddit on any topic, send subscribers. Our first goal is to reach critical mass where we’re hitting the front page consistently, then we can really start our pressure campaign.

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#1671 - Bret Weinstein & Dr. Pierre Kory

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What is the shaft of light in the picture?

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2020/03/28
01:57 UTC

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Iowa Caucus Discrepancy Analysis

Introduction

Been busy this weekend trying to make sense of all these reports of discrepancies in the results of the Iowa Caucus. I just finished double checking my models, and wanted to share it.

To start, quick introduction.

I am an engineer. I don't have a political science background, but I am a Data Scientist at NASA. You may also know me as the person behind the Medicare for All Calculator

The Caucus Model

My challenge was this: Build a model that can take the Final counts per candidate, and calculate all discrepancies between the reported SDEs and what would be expected to be the actual SDEs.

Model (in Excel spreadsheet form): https://1drv.ms/x/s!Am_fv_2JmQAAgZh2QJJf1v9c30kNIw?e=MAOpIH

For those that want to play with it: Download it and look at each precinct on the Scenario tab.

I am working on making sure this can get in the right hands at the Iowa Democratic Party, and the relevant Campaigns, so if you know the contact that I need to reach out to, send me a private message.

Model Details

Assumptions:

  1. Viability threshold is 0.25 for 2 delegates, 0.1666667 for 3 delegates, and 0.15 for 4+ delegates. That is multiplied by the total in Final Expression and rounded up.
  2. Cannot perform an adjustment that causes a candidate to lose their only delegate, unless all other candidates only have 1 delegate.
  3. When performing adjustment, if excess, you must remove delegate from candidate that was rounded up the most
  4. When performing adjustment, if short, you must add delegate to candidate that was rounded down the most

Unresolvable Model Parameter:

  1. In ~15 cases that an adjustment is performed wrong, or an unviable candidate is given delegates, there can be coin flips that would needed to have been performed that the model doesn't resolve.

Results

  1. The model calculates the exact same result for 1667 of 1765 scenarios
  2. The model detected 139 coin flips
  3. 98 Precincts had discrepancies:
  4. 51 of those were due to "Incorrect candidate chosen during adjustment
  5. 21 of those were due to "Unviable candidate given delegates"
  6. 14 of those were due to "Incorrect rounding of candidates

In the end, these errors accounted for Pete Buttigieg getting +2.10 extra SDEs, and Bernie Sanders being shorted -4.44 SDEs. All other candidates were generally only +/- 1 SDE.

Sanders wins Iowa Caucus by: 5.03 (0.23%) SDEs

The 18 most significant precinct errors impacting the 2 leaders were:

These account for 6.09 of the SDE error, the remaining errors roughly average each other out.

CountyPrecinctAnomalyNet Difference
JohnsonIOWA CITY 20Incorrect Rounding of Candidates+0.81 SDEs for Buttigieg
JohnsonIOWA CITY 14Incorrect Candidate Chosen during adjustment+0.81 SDEs for Buttigieg
PolkDES MOINES-80Incorrect Rounding of Candidates+0.5596 SDEs for Buttigieg
PolkWDM-212Incorrect Candidate Chosen during adjustment+0.5596 SDEs for Buttigieg
WarrenNORWALK 1Incorrect Candidate Chosen during adjustment+0.4667 SDEs for Buttigieg
ClintonELK RIVER HAMPSHIRE ANDOVUnviable Candidate Given Delegates+0.4428 SDEs for Sanders
LinnMarion 08Unviable Candidate Given Delegates+0.4395 SDEs for Buttigieg
JeffersonFairfield 4th WardIncorrect Candidate Chosen during adjustment+0.4365 SDEs for Buttigieg
StoryGrant TownshipIncorrect Candidate Chosen during adjustment+0.415 SDEs for Buttigieg
StoryAmes 3-1Incorrect Candidate Chosen during adjustment+0.415 SDEs for Buttigieg
Scott(DH) City of DonahueIncorrect Candidate Chosen during adjustment+0.4133 SDEs for Buttigieg
Scott(BF) City of BuffaloIncorrect Candidate Chosen during adjustment+0.4133 SDEs for Buttigieg
Scott(D34) City of DavenportUnviable Candidate Given Delegates+0.4132 SDEs for Buttigieg
JohnsonIOWA CITY 19Incorrect Rounding of Candidates+0.405 SDEs for Buttigieg
JohnsonNL06/MADISON /CCNIncorrect Candidate Chosen during adjustment+0.405 SDEs for Sanders
JohnsonCEDAR TOWNSHIPIncorrect Candidate Chosen during adjustment+0.405 SDEs for Buttigieg
JohnsonIOWA CITY 08Incorrect Candidate Chosen during adjustment+0.405 SDEs for Buttigieg
JohnsonCORALVILLE 02Removed last Delegate from candidate during Adjustment+0.405 SDEs for Buttigieg
1 Comment
2020/02/10
16:53 UTC

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