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Energy /EIA forecasts I'm tracking - thoughts?
OPEC Nov 30 meeting takeaways: reading between the lines.
An additional 900k barrel production cut brings the total to 2.2 m bpd. Russia and Saudi Arabia account for 1.5 or 68%.
This outcome is not bullish since OPEC was clearly struggling to put this deal together. They did not have the usual press conference, implying they wanted to avoid questions. Saudi Arabia did not get the cuts they hoped for and settled for the best they could.
Each country cuts in thousand barrels
-Cuts are voluntary so that each member will announce their portion in 2024
-OPEC’s track record in these situations points to 70% or 80% compliance.
-OPEC’s line in the sand is $80 Brent
-If the compliance is lower (our assumption is 75%), it is not enough to balance the supply and demand for 2024 based on IEA projections. That is bearish prices.
-Further cuts soon are unlikely with the struggle to get these across the finish line. The oil market will be in wait-and-see mode until year-end.
Opinions are those of a 40-year veteran crude oil trader. Not meant as trading or financial advice.
See the summary of the RGND’s PallasCeres report:
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