By Amy Graff, Senior News EditorNov 5, 2024The typical fall weather pattern with dry winds pushing west is forecast to develop in Northern California Tuesday into Wednesday and heighten wildfire risk to critical levels. The most severe offshore winds are expected overnight, and the National Weather Service is calling on people to stay aware and monitor any fire activity in their area. PG&E is preparing to potentially cut power to 20,142 customers in 17 Northern California counties on Tuesday night, after in-person voting has wrapped up.

“Many everyday things can spark wildfires,” the weather service warned. “Keep ignition sources far away from dry vegetation, wood and other fuel.”

The winds are expected to pick up as a cold, dry low-pressure system drops down from Canada and digs into the Four Corners region. Meanwhile, a high-pressure system is building into the Pacific Northwest. The two separate systems are causing what’s known as a pressure gradient. “The difference in the high pressure and low pressure leads to stronger winds,” Nicole Sarment, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, said.

In the Tuesday-Wednesday event, the Bay Area is expected to see some of the most extreme conditions and highest wildfire risk in Northern California. “This system is really set up to give the worst to us, especially with the way the gradient is centered with the upper-level trough digging in,” Rachel Kennedy, a forecaster with the weather service’s Bay Area office, said. 

While far Northern California saw a few rounds of wetting rains in October that lowered wildfire risk, the Bay Area has seen little precipitation, and vegetation on the ground remains flammable.

“The one caveat I’ll make to that is the North Bay received about an inch since the water year began in October,” Kennedy said. “Last week, we had a couple rounds of wetting rain up there, which helps, but really won’t have any substantial effect during this event considering the winds we’re going to get and how quickly they will dry things out.” 

The Bay Area has seen some of its biggest and most damaging wildfires — including the 2019 Kincade Fire and the 2017 Wine Country fires — during offshore winds. Kennedy said this event is unlikely to be as extreme as those in 2019 and 2017 but will “be one of the stronger events we have seen in many years.”

In the Bay Area, the height of the blustery conditions is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday, with sustained winds of 20 mph to 30 mph and isolated gusts up to 50 mph likely to develop. A red flag warning is in effect for the majority of the region from 11 a.m. Tuesday to 7 a.m. Thursday. The Bay Area weather service is calling on people to “stay aware and monitor active wildfires” in their area. “Keep track of any alerts or orders coming from local law enforcement,” the agency said. “If you need to evacuate, leave early.” 

Kennedy advised people living in wildfire-prone areas to make sure they sign up for alert systems and program their phones so they can hear any alerts that come through during the overnight hours. “Make sure you have as many ways as possible to access those warning systems,” she said.

The North Bay is expected to see the strongest winds in the Bay Area, with gusts up to 70 mph forecast to knock Mount St. Helena. The weather service issued a wind advisory for the interior mountains of the North Bay from 4 p.m. Tuesday through 3 p.m. Wednesday. The agency warned of downed trees and power outages.

The weather service’s Sacramento office is also sounding the alarm bells and issued a red flag warning for the Delta area and the western Sacramento Valley from 10 a.m. Tuesday to 4 p.m. Wednesday. Northerly winds of 20 mph to 30 mph, with gusts of 40 mph to 50 mph, are expected to pummel the region. 

The winds come at a time when the region has seen little rain, and vegetation on the ground is parched and highly flammable. What’s more, the low-pressure system will pull dry air into the region, leading to plummeting humidity levels. It’s a perfect recipe for wildfire starts and rapid spread, and PG&E is preparing to cut power to thousands. The utility company said most of the customers who could be put in the dark are in the North Bay and East Bay of the Bay Area and in the Sacramento Valley. The shutoffs are a preemptive measure to de-energize equipment that can get knocked over and damaged in strong winds and send off sparks that start wildfires.

Five polling locations may be blacked out but not until after in-person voting has wrapped up, as PG&E said outages across Northern California will occur at 7 p.m. at the earliest. The potentially impacted polling locations include Girl Scout House, Orchard School and Moose Lodge in Solano County; Calpine Geothermal Visitor Center in Lake County; and Lakeside Elementary School in Santa Clara County. 

Source: https://www.sfgate.com/weather/article/sf-bay-area-braces-strongest-wind-event-years-19889531.php

By Anthony Edwards, Newsroom MeteorologistUpdated Nov 5, 2024 8:37 a.m.

Powerful Santa Ana and Diablo winds are forecast to begin Tuesday night across California, prompting the National Weather Service to warn of potential damage, power outages and heightened wildfire risk.

“This is a fairly rare type of Santa Ana wind event we’re expecting,” said Robbie Munroe, a meteorologist at the weather service’s office in Oxnard.

The weather service issued a high wind warning for gusts of 60 to 80 mph — up to 100 mph in mountain locations — for much of Ventura and Los Angeles counties, including Santa Clarita, Woodland Hills, Ventura, Oxnard, Simi Valley and Thousand Oaks. The warning is in effect from 4 a.m. Wednesday to 4 p.m. Thursday. Additional high wind warnings and advisories have been issued for other parts of Central and Southern California.

Munroe said the destructive 2018 Woolsey Fire and 2019 Thomas Fire ignited amid similar conditions, adding the forecast “has us very concerned.”
Elevated fire weather is also forecast in Northern California amid dry and windy conditions. Widespread red flag warnings are in place across the Central Valley and Bay Area, but the weather service highlighted the western Sacramento Valley, the delta region, the East Bay and North Bay for the highest wildfire risk.
More than 32 million Californians live in an area covered by a red flag warning or fire weather watch for high fire danger this week. The warnings begin at staggered times throughout the state, with the wildfire risk generally expected to peak Tuesday evening through Thursday.
Pacific Gas and Electric. Co warned of power shutoffs to prevent wildfire risk, but outages are not expected to begin until after Election Day polling closes.

Gusts up to 50 mph are possible in the Sacramento Valley and northern San Joaquin Valley, possibly even stronger in Solano County. The North Bay mountains, East Bay hills and Santa Cruz Mountains could gust over 55 mph, and up to 70 mph atop Mount St. Helena and Mount Diablo.

Diablo winds are often limited to the higher elevations of the Bay Area, but breezes should extend region-wide Tuesday night and Wednesday. Gusts of 30 to 40 mph are forecast in San Francisco, Oakland and San Jose, with the strongest winds Tuesday night until midday Wednesday.

“We are leaning more on the side that stronger winds will mix down into the valleys,” said Rachel Kennedy, a meteorologist at the weather service office in Monterey. “I wouldn’t fully rule out the possibility of a stronger wind gust mixing down to the valleys of Sonoma and Napa counties.”

It will likely be the strongest offshore wind event in the Bay Area in nearly four years. Weakened trees could snap or fall, causing power outages in some areas. Remaining Halloween decorations should be secured before the winds arrive.

Even in areas that experience significantly lower wind speeds, the air will be noticeably dry. Relative humidity is forecast to drop to the 10% to 20% range along the California coastline.

“We’re going to bring the desert to the beach, is the bottom line,” said Alex Tardy, a warning coordination meteorologist at the San Diego weather service office.

Source: https://www.sfchronicle.com/weather-forecast/article/santa-ana-wind-california-wildfire-19886821.php

By Anthony Edwards, Newsroom MeteorologistUpdated Nov 5, 2024 3:22 p.m.

The National Weather Service in Oxnard warned of “extremely critical and highly volatile” fire weather conditions in portions of Los Angeles and Ventura counties, with dry, damaging winds in the forecast Wednesday.

A “particularly dangerous situation” tag was added to a red flag warning  — language the weather service reserves only for the most extreme fire risk. The red flag warning was set to begin at 2 a.m. Wednesday, with the particularly dangerous situation beginning at 9 a.m. The particularly dangerous situation was expected to continue at the beaches and in the valleys until 4 p.m. Wednesday and in the mountains until 9 a.m. Thursday.

Some cities included in the particularly dangerous warning include Santa Clarita, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley, Oxnard, Ventura, Malibu, Burbank and Glendale. In Northern California, elevated fire weather was also forecast — including parts of the Bay Area and Central Valley — although the risk was relatively lower than Southern California. Red flag warnings were scheduled to go into effect Tuesday afternoon and continue until Thursday morning. 

The strongest Santa Ana wind event in four years was expected in Southern California. In Ventura and Los Angeles counties, forecast 70-plus mph wind gusts combined with relative humidity in the lower teens to single digits are predicted to bring “extremely critical fire-weather conditions atop receptive fuels,” according to the weather service. Any fires that do start have the potential to spread extremely quickly.

It’s been nearly four years since the Oxnard weather service office last issued a particularly dangerous situation red flag warning, in December 2020.

“These are very volatile conditions for the spread of wildfires,” said Ariel Cohen, the meteorologist in charge at the weather service office in Oxnard.

As of Tuesday morning, there were no ongoing wildfires in Ventura County, with only the smoldering Bridge Fire in Los Angeles County, according to Cal Fire.

To prevent new fires from starting, Southern California Edison had scheduled outages to more than 55,000 customers in high-risk areas. The utility also considered shutting off power to an additional 164,000 customers.

Pacific Gas and Electric Co. announced planned power shutoffs to more than 20,100 customers in Northern California. A full list of planned shutoffs is available at PG&E’s website and at the Chronicle’s power outage map.

Source: https://www.sfchronicle.com/california-wildfires/article/ventura-los-angeles-southern-california-fire-wind-19890051.php

By Kurtis Alexander, ReporterOct 23, 2024

When the birds touch down, they have no idea of the danger that lurks in the water.

But soon they feel weak. Their eyes may close. They struggle to hold up their wings, then their heads. Eventually, they drown.

Over the past three months, nearly 100,000 birds have died in this vicious sequence that scientists say marks the worst outbreak of avian botulism ever at the Klamath Basin national wildlife refuges, along the California-Oregon border.

When the birds touch down, they have no idea of the danger that lurks in the water.

But soon they feel weak. Their eyes may close. They struggle to hold up their wings, then their heads. Eventually, they drown.

Over the past three months, nearly 100,000 birds have died in this vicious sequence that scientists say marks the worst outbreak of avian botulism ever at the Klamath Basin national wildlife refuges, along the California-Oregon border.

The die-off is centered at Tule Lake, an ancient, volcanic lake in Siskiyou and Modoc counties. It’s one of six federal refuges designed to provide sanctuary for the hundreds of thousands of birds, as well as other animals, that live and visit the remote region annually. Among the recent dead are both the local waterfowl, namely ducks, and the many migratory birds that stop for food and rest on their often-long journeys up and down the West Coast.

While botulism occurs naturally — from bacteria that produce a toxin in warm, shallow water — the scope of the illness points to broader problems facing the Klamath Basin. Foremost are water policies that have long limited supplies for some of the refuges, as well as climate change, which is partly responsible for producing California’s hottest summer on record this year.

“These outbreaks are a symptom of all of the challenges in this watershed,” said John Vradenburg, supervisory biologist at the Klamath Basin refuges. “When this ecosystem collapses, birds may be the first to fall off the landscape but everything else is going to be falling pretty quickly, too.”

The recent removal of four hydroelectric dams on the Klamath River, to the west, is part of a long-running effort to improve conditions in the basin. But more is needed to address the region’s many issues.

The birds began dying mid-summer. Initially, Vrandenburg and his colleagues at the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service identified both avian influenza and botulism as drivers. But the flu has since become secondary in pushing the death toll to an estimated 94,000 birds as of early October, federal officials say. The casualties have continued to mount since.

The outbreak far exceeds a 2020 run of botulism at Tule Lake, which killed an estimated 60,000 birds and became the benchmark for disaster in the region.

Refuge biologists started clearing out the carcasses of the lifeless birds in August, hoping to limit the spread of the toxin. They collected 500 or more bodies on airboats each day. Meanwhile a network of conservation groups funded an on-site medical center to help treat sick and immobilized birds.

“From the day we opened the hospital, it was full court press,” said Marie Travers, co-director of Bird Ally X, the Humboldt County organization that led the rescue effort.

The goal of the rescuers was to try to stabilize the condition of the birds until the toxin works its way out of their systems. Bird Ally X staff and volunteers pumped the animals with fluids, via feeding tubes, as well as with a Vitamin B complex and Vitamin E.

“They have a really good chance of recovering if you’re able to get them in and provide supportive care,” said January Bill, also a co-director of the rescue organization.

Of the 27 species of birds treated for botulism, the most infected have been three types of migratory ducks: northern shovelers, American wigeons and northern pintails, rescuers say. Other infected migratory birds include black-necked stilts and long-billed dowitchers. Ducks local to the basin that have become sick include mallards, gadwalls and redheads.

Before the rescue effort ceased in early October, due to the start of the hunting season, nearly 1,000 birds were rehabilitated and returned to the wild, according to Bird Ally X. The tally is small given the losses, but scientists say that between removing dead birds and reviving sick birds, the botulism outbreak was at least partly stymied.

The year started off well at Tule Lake. Because of back-to-back wet winters, the diversity and abundance of birds were at levels not seen in over a decade, federal officials say. The bounty was particularly welcomed because bird populations in the Klamath Basin have been in decline.

Then, the hot weather and dry conditions set in. Temperatures began hitting record highs in California during the first week of June, setting the stage for what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration would deem the state’s hottest meteorological summer on record.

Water deliveries to Tule Lake, meanwhile, dropped off after months of getting the first significant supplies in years. The lake, like the nearby Lower Klamath National Wildlife Refuge, does not have a dedicated water supply and relies on surplus from the federal Bureau of Reclamation’s Klamath Project and local farmers. In 2022, Tule Lake dried up entirely because no water was piped in.

The conditions that evolved this summer were ideal for botulism. When the birds began to get sick, given their large numbers on the lake, Jeff McCreary, western director of operations for the conservation and hunting advocacy group Ducks Unlimited, called the refuge a looming “death trap.”

At the urging of bird groups like Ducks Unlimited as well as local farmers and tribes, the Bureau of Reclamation delivered more water to the lake as bird deaths soared. Vrandenburg, the refuge biologist, said the additional supplies helped but only so much.

The persistence of hot weather in September and October, he said, stoked the outbreak, whereas in the past, cooler, autumn temperatures would have helped the epidemic recede.

“As climate conditions warm, and freezes are coming later in the fall, we are seeing increased interactions of warm temperature conditions with the migratory bird population,” Vrandenburg said. “Depending on migration timing, this can mean a lot of birds converging on the affected wetland.”

The loss of historical wetlands, he said, only exacerbates the concentration of birds, which contributes to the scale of this year’s die-off.

As for the future, wildlife advocates continue to work with the region’s many water users, alongside the Bureau of Reclamation, to figure out how to better allocate water supplies in the basin. An updated management plan for the Klamath Project, while not yet approved, calls for dedicated water deliveries, for the first time, to Tule Lake and the Lower Klamath refuge.

Source: https://www.sfchronicle.com/california/article/tule-lake-sick-birds-19847081.php

By Megan Cassidy, Crime ReporterOct 23, 2024Source: https://www.sfchronicle.com/eastbay/article/berkeley-evacuation-alert-wildfires-19857723.php

Last week, after Berkeley officials issued an alert recommending an evacuation from the city’s hills neighborhoods amid “extreme fire weather,” some residents responded with a shrug. 

“They have been saying this ‘evacuate for the possibility of a fire’ for a few years,” wrote one user on a Berkeley subreddit, asking if anyone heeded the advice. 

“I evacuated to a pub for a few hours,” one respondent said. “It’s a joke that does more harm than good.”

In 2020, Berkeley officials began issuing what they refer to as a preemptive relocation alert; a hybrid between a red flag warning — signifying high-risk fire weather — and an evacuation warning. 

Unlike evacuation warnings and orders, the preemptive notifications are issued in the absence of an active fire, but amid the threat of “extreme fire weather,” said Berkeley Deputy Fire Chief Keith May. This designation is unique to Berkeley, and intended to give residents — particularly those with mobility issues — extra lead time when the worst-case scenario is a possibility. 

The Keller Fire in the Oakland Hills ignited early Friday afternoon, about 10 miles from Berkeley’s preemptive evacuation zones, but winds were blowing away from that direction, according to a Chronicle meteorologist.  

Emergency notification systems have become a crucial tool for California cities and counties to protect residents from the state’s increasingly devastating wildfires. While officials in some fire-ravaged communities have come under attack for alerting too late or too infrequently, experts say there’s a delicate balance between knowing how and when to alert people without desensitizing them to potential danger.

From “the report we got from the state, if an ignition were to occur Friday night into Saturday, you’d have about a 20% chance of stopping it before it got out of hand,” May said, referring to an analysis of conditions in Alameda County. “So that’s an 80% chance of something that started small, from a chain on a tow vehicle sparking, to growing into something that you can’t control.” 

The Berkeley Fire Department has declared extreme fire weather conditions only three times since 2020, and base the designation on weather conditions. A red flag warning is issued much more frequently — 25 times in 2020 alone — during less severe conditions. 

Friday’s extreme fire weather alert was issued in the afternoon and was in effect from 8 p.m. Friday to 7 a.m. Saturday. During this time, Berkeley officials said, a National Weather Service spot forecast predicted extremely low humidity and winds of up to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.  

The reality wasn’t nearly as severe as this forecast, according to Greg Porter, a senior newsroom meteorologist for the Chronicle. 

At 8 p.m. Friday, “three weather stations located in the evacuation zone were generally reporting temperatures in the mid-60s, relative humidity levels in the teens and light winds no more than 5 mph,” Porter said. “Overnight, none of those stations ever hit the criteria for extreme fire weather; winds stayed too low.”

May said it appears only a small fraction of the alert’s recipients left the hills, based on the initial results of a survey included in the alerts. According to the roughly 200 responses received by Tuesday, May said about 16% reported that they evacuated, but another 61% said they prepared to evacuate but ultimately stayed put. 

May said emergency crews are constantly evaluating how the public receives their messages. 

“We’ve heard both ‘too much alert’ and ‘too little alert,’” he said. “It’s a constant battle for emergency managers to try to balance that.”

May said the city learned hard lessons from the Camp Fire of 2018, a monster blaze that killed 85 people and all but wiped out the Butte County town of Paradise and surrounding communities. Butte County officials have since faced tough questions about whether they did enough to warn residents about what would become the deadliest wildfire in state history, and were criticized by some for limiting the scope of their alerts. 

Back in 2017, May said, Paradise’s alerts and evacuation management system was one of a handful that Berkeley fire crews analyzed when evaluating their own fire-response efforts. Paradise had similar terrain and weather patterns as areas of the Berkeley hills; both had a wildland-urban interface area, smaller communities and narrow streets. 

Henry DeNero, a resident of the Berkeley Hills and president of the community-based Berkeley FireSafe Council, said that he did not heed the pre-evacuation alert, partially because he could be out of the hills in about five minutes.

DeNero said it’s also likely that many of the people who received the alerts weren’t aware that they came with an early evacuation notice. Still, he said, he has heard no complaints about the alerts being issued too soon.

“My sense is that the community is highly supportive of the fire department and the city’s efforts to reduce the extreme wildfire risk that we face in the East Bay,” he said.

“We don’t want to cry wolf when it’s not the wolf,” May said. “But we want to give people enough tools to save themselves.” 

By Bill Van Niekerken, Library DirectorUpdated July 17, 2019 8:22 a.m.Source: https://www.sfchronicle.com/chronicle_vault/article/Port-Chicago-disaster-Unpublished-photos-of-a-14099503.php

Seventy five years ago, on the evening of July 17, 1944, an explosion at a Naval base on Suisun Bay ignited 10,000 tons of munitions, killing 320 and injuring hundreds more. It was the worst home port disaster of World War II, destroying two ships and destroying the nearby town of Port Chicago.

The Port Chicago disaster and the related mutiny trial of dozens of African American sailors were landmark World War II events that few know took place here in the Bay Area. But during a search through The Chronicle’s archive, I found many unpublished images in the negatives files of the aftermath of the explosion from photographers Virginia de Carvalho and Sid Tate.

The explosion shook the Bay Area, with earthquake-like effects reportedly as far as 20 miles away. The “force of the explosion was such that to date not one body has been recovered,” the Chronicle reported on July 19, 1944.

“The hell inside the ammunition boxes blasted the men and hurled them through the sky, some for more than a mile,” Chronicle reporter Dean Jennings wrote, describing the scene on the base.

The nearby town of Port Chicago was also destroyed, with photos showing buildings reduced to rubble or collapsed from the inside. “Every building is warped beyond recognition. Not a pane of glass remains intact,” Chronicle reporter Carolyn Anspacher wrote, from “the depot where I am trying to write this story on the only typewriter in town that still functions is a mass of rubble.”

“Amazingly,” as the newspaper said at the time, not one resident of Port Chicago had been killed, but many were injured by flying glass.

But what happened next was the disaster’s longer legacy. Of the dead, 202 were African American enlisted men who were assigned in segregated units to load ammunition under the supervision of white officers. The conditions were dangerous, and they had not been trained for the job.

Before the explosion, the officers had forced them into a betting competition on which battalion could load the fastest. So when, three weeks after the blast, a complement of new black sailors and survivors was ordered to resume loading munitions, 258 of them refused, citing the fear of another huge explosion.

After officials made clear they saw this as a refusal of an order, many went back to work, except for 50 black sailors — all survivors of the blast — who steadfastly refused. Most were teenagers — the oldest was 21.

They were court-martialed en masse and convicted of mutiny, originally sentenced to prison terms of eight to 15 years. A judge later reduced the sentences, and many of the Port Chicago 50 ended up serving about 16 months in prison.

In 1991, the Navy reopened the case at the urging of four Bay Area members of Congress. But the convictions were allowed to stand, “even though the Navy admitted that the black sailors were victims of racial prejudice when they were put in segregated units and assigned to load ammunition ships,” Chronicle reporter Carl Nolte wrote about the January 1994 decision.

The Port Chicago 50 and their families have continued their pursuit of justice. President Obama made the memorial part of the national parks system in 2009 and said in a letter for the 2016 annual remembrance that the group was part of a long tradition of defiance and that their efforts led to important changes in the military.

But those charged with mutiny, that wasn’t enough. A pardon, former sailor Joe Small told Nolte in 1994, “means you’re guilty but we forgive you. We want the decisions set aside and reimbursement of all lost pay.”

By Maliya Ellis, Hearst FellowUpdated Oct 17, 2024 9:33 p.m.

Pacific Gas and Electric Co. began shutting off power to some customers in Northern California on Thursday afternoon in an effort to curb wildfire risk amid dry weather conditions and strong winds. 

Approximately 13,000 customers had lost power as of 8 p.m. Thursday, across 12 counties including Alameda, Contra Costa, Napa, Solano and Sonoma in the Bay Area, according to PG&E. The utility company first shut off power to customers in parts of Colusa, Glenn, Tehama and Shasta counties around 12:40 p.m. PG&E could cut power to portions of 12 additional counties and five tribal areas. Around 20,000 customers in total could temporarily lose power, PG&E said Thursday.

• PG&E outage map: Bay Area shut-off details by address
• California fire map & tracker: Latest updates on active fires throughout the state

The risk of shut-offs could last until Saturday afternoon in some locations, according to the utility company. 

PG&E triggers preemptive outages in areas where dry and hot conditions can cause its equipment to topple over and potentially spark wildfires. 

A red flag warning went into effect for the Bay Area and Central Coast beginning Thursday evening and was expected to run through Saturday afternoon, as the National Weather Service forecasted humidity levels below 10% and 30 mph winds with gusts up to 50 mph. 

Vegetation is much drier than normal throughout Northern California after an early October heat wave followed a hot summer, according to the Northern California Geographic Area Coordination Center. 

Nine counties previously slated for shut-offs in the Central and Eastern parts of the state were removed from the utility’s list after rainfall in the Sierra Nevada on Wednesday morning reduced wildfire risk there, sparing some 15,000 customers, according to the utility. 

Source: https://www.sfchronicle.com/california/article/red-flag-warning-pge-shutoffs-address-map-19844942.php

By Kate Galbraith, Climate EditorUpdated Oct 17, 2024 3:11 p.m.

At 10:17 a.m. Thursday, millions of phones across California were supposed to buzz with a test of the earthquake warning system.

Many did.

But others were silent — even some with the MyShake app installed. No buzzing was heard, for example, in at least part of the Chronicle newsroom.

It was not immediately clear why a number of phones did not go off, but there are some common reasons for not receiving earthquake alerts. Some people who received silent alerts may have had their phones on do not disturb, for instance. (Real alerts for major quakes will override do-not-disturb mode.)

For others, according to Robert de Groot, a spokesperson with the U.S. Geological Survey for the ShakeAlert early warning system that feeds the MyShake app, issues could include: 

• The app wasn’t installed or it was only partially installed.

• If the app isn’t used for a long time it could be “retired” by the phone. Sometimes OS upgrades cause conflicts.

• Some internal setting on the phone prevented alert delivery.

• The internet connection on the phone was temporarily down.

Suresh Raman, lead expert on MyShake at UC Berkeley’s Seismology Lab (which developed the app), said by email that “it is possible that there was a small percentage of the phones (among millions) that did not receive this type of less-urgent notification due to network congestion and/or cellular connectivity of the phone at that time.”

He noted that users should have gotten pre-drill notifications as well. “If they didn’t get the pre-drill notification, the root cause is likely different.  Their app may not be up to date,” he said.

Source: https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/earthquake-alert-test-19844581.php

By Anthony Edwards, Newsroom MeteorologistOct 16, 2024

Winds are expected to ramp up around Northern California the next few days, eventually resulting in critical fire weather conditions Thursday through Saturday.

But before the elevated wildfire risk, a few rain showers are possible Wednesday as a weak cold front clips Northern California.

The cold frontal disturbance is predicted to fizzle as it approaches the Bay Area because the parent storm is relatively far away over the Pacific Northwest, meaning rainfall totals will be light at best. Along this cold front, a few light rain showers could fall from San Francisco to Yuba City, but most areas will remain dry. Heavier showers, and a slight chance of thunderstorms, are possible in the northern Sierra Nevada north of Interstate 80.

Behind this cold front, temperatures are expected to drop to near freezing around the Lake Tahoe Basin on Wednesday night. Even colder conditions are expected Thursday night, in the teens in Truckee and the low 20s along the Tahoe shoreline.

In the Bay Area, Wednesday morning drizzle along the coast will be followed by afternoon clearing as winds gradually increase and mix out fog. Northwest gusts up to 30 mph along the Peninsula will strengthen throughout the day and persist throughout the night.

Fire danger will not be exceptionally high Wednesday due to the increased atmospheric moisture, but winds will begin blowing out of the north Thursday, drying out vegetation and increasing fire weather conditions. By Thursday night into Friday morning, winds are forecast to blow from the north-northeast.

These are known as Diablo winds, and they have contributed to many of the Bay Area’s biggest wildfires. Because these winds blow over land, rather than water, they are much drier and pose a bigger fire risk than the typical sea breeze.

Thursday through Saturday will be the first major Diablo wind event of the fall. Gusts up to 65 mph are possible along ridgetops in the North Bay and East Bay. There is more uncertainty as to how strong winds will get in the valleys, but periodic gusts of 25 to 45 mph are likely in Wine Country, the East Bay valleys and the Peninsula, including San Francisco.

A wind advisory in Solano County and the delta region, including Sacramento, will go into effect at 11 p.m. Thursday, with gusts up to 55 mph expected. A red flag warning for heightened fire weather conditions is in effect for a large swath of the Bay Area from 11 p.m. Thursday until 5 p.m. Saturday. Pacific Gas & Electric Co. has warned that it could shut off electric power in order to prevent wildfires in parts of 30 counties starting Thursday.

Wednesday breakdown

San Francisco: Patchy morning fog will be followed by a slight chance of a midday sprinkle as a weak cold front fizzles over the city. Dry weather will prevail more likely than not, and any rain showers would be short lived and light. Northwest winds are expected to gust up to 30 mph near the water in the afternoon and evening. Highs will be in the low 60s in the outer Sunset and Richmond districts, the mid-60s near the Panhandle, Nob Hill and the Embarcadero and the upper 60s in the Mission District and SoMa. Lows will be in the mid-50s.

North Bay: There is a slight chance of a midday rain shower in the northernmost part of Sonoma and Napa counties. Otherwise, gradual clearing is expected, with highs in the 60s at the coast, low 70s in Tiburon, San Rafael and Vallejo and mid-70s to near 80 in Petaluma, Santa Rosa, Napa, Fairfield and Vacaville. A few passing high clouds are possible overnight, but breezy winds should prevent fog from developing. Lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s.

East Bay: Mostly cloudy skies through midmorning will gradually clear for a mainly sunny afternoon. Highs will be in the mid- to upper 60s in Richmond, Berkeley and Oakland and near 70 in Hayward and Fremont. Inland valleys will be a bit quicker to clear and should warm up slightly, reaching the mid-70s. Gusts of 20 mph are expected near the delta in the evening. Overnight lows will be in the 50s, dropping to the upper 40s near Danville and San Ramon.

Pacific Coast and Peninsula: Morning cloud cover is expected to gradually burn off to the coast by midday, but drier air blowing in during the afternoon should result in coastal clearing. Comet Tsuchinshan-Atlas should be visible on the western horizon shortly after sunset, if the forecast pans out. Highs will be in the upper 50s to low 60s along the coast, mid-60s in South San Francisco and San Bruno and upper 60s to low 70s in San Mateo and Redwood City. Gusts up to 30 mph are expected in the afternoon. Overnight lows will be in the low 50s.

South Bay and Santa Cruz: Partly to mostly cloudy skies in the morning are expected to gradually clear for midafternoon blue skies. Highs will be in the mid-70s in Sunnyvale, Mountain View, Santa Clara, San Jose, Milpitas and Cupertino and similar in the Santa Cruz Mountains. The Monterey Bay coastline will be cooler, near 70. Overnight lows will be in the low 50s in the Santa Clara Valley, near 50 in Santa Cruz and the mid- to upper 40s in Boulder Creek and Ben Lomond.

Source: https://www.sfchronicle.com/weather-forecast/article/california-diablo-wind-fire-risk-19839248.php

By Greg Porter, Senior Newsroom Meteorologist

Updated Oct 6, 2024 8:03 p.m.

Sunday was the hottest day of the year in San Francisco and the hottest October day in the city in 28 years. The high of 97 degrees set a new daily temperature record for the date as well, one of many records set across the Bay Area on Sunday.

Sunday also marked the third day this month where the city reached at least 94 degrees for a high temperature, a feat that has been achieved just six other times in the city’s history. 

Oakland hit 100 degrees, San Jose topped out at 103 degrees and San Rafael’s high temperature was an eye-popping 107 degrees, all daily records. At least 10 daily temperature records were set across the Bay Area on Sunday. 

• Bay Area heat wave: When will region see relief?

Sunday’s hot temperatures in the Bay Area were a bit of a surprise. A sea breeze failed to materialize as forecast and an offshore wind carried the heat all the way to the coastline. Ocean Beach reached a blistering 94 degrees, while some personal weather stations in the Mission District showed temperatures in the upper 90s and above 100 degrees.

The extreme temperatures were part of a historic heat wave encompassing much of California and the western U.S. On Sunday, daily temperature records were set in Palm Springs, Fresno and Ukiah in California and also in locations in Arizona, New Mexico and Montana. 

Back in the Bay Area, Ocean Beach was bustling with surfers, umbrellas, tents and picnic blankets in the early afternoon. Typical cooling winds off the ocean were nonexistent, as a hot land breeze eroded the marine layer completely. One lifeguard described it as the hottest day since he started working in 2016.

At Dolores Park, people took cover in the shaded areas near the top of the hill, where they sat or lied down on blankets and towels. Some groups pitched tents. A few others set up canopies.

Precious Bowes, 37, went to the park with her friend and her terrier pointer mix to escape the Victorian where she lives. “The sun hits it all day long,” she said as she set up blankets under a tree.

She had a cooler full of Gatorade and water bottles. She intended to sell them, but the heat was too much. “At this point we’re exhausted,” she said.
Instead she planned to offer free affirmation readings.

San Francisco designated cooling centers at the Main Library, plus the Chinatown, Glen Park, Mission Bay, North Beach and Potrero Hill branches. The Mission District and Potrero branches were closed due to the heat. 

Black Jack Baking Co. in the city’s Bernal Heights neighborhood closed at 2 p.m. Sunday “because it is too damn hot,” the owner posted on Instagram. 

The PG&E Outage Map showed power off in a large swath of the East Bay on Sunday, though it was unclear whether the unplanned outages were related to the heat. 

In Oakland, which hit 100 degrees both Saturday and Sunday, power was out at a stretch of homes and businesses in the Montclair neighborhood Sunday afternoon. 

A Montclair nail salon was turning customers away because of the outage, though one client can canceled because of the heat. Nearby restaurant and bar Crogan’s was dark and closed, with a “Power out” sign on the front door. Safeway and Highwire Coffee were without power as well.

On the same block, an Em Deli employee said that if power wasn’t restore to the Korean restaurant by 5 p.m., it would have to throw out food.

Source: https://www.sfchronicle.com/weather/article/san-francisco-heat-record-19819435.php

By Amanda Bartlett, Assistant Local Editor

Oct 6, 2024

As the San Francisco Bay Area enters the seventh day of a historic heat wave, forecasters are warning people to drink plenty of water and stay inside if possible due to persisting “dangerously hot” conditions.
Temperatures remain well above the triple-digit mark over the weekend, leading to record-breaking highs. On Saturday, San Rafael soared to 106, surpassing a previous record of 94 set in 2014, and the Oakland Museum hit 97, inching past its record of 96 set in 1987, Nicole Sarment, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Bay Area office, told SFGATE. Redwood City also climbed to 99, tying the same record set in 1987. 
The impacts are widespread, reaching as far as the typically foggy coastline. The weather service extended an excessive heat warning for San Francisco and a heat advisory along the shore until 11 p.m. Sunday, where temperatures are expected to get up to the mid-80s. Notable hotspots throughout the Bay Area and Central California include the Santa Cruz Mountains, which are expected to reach 108 degrees Sunday, as well as the far interior portions of the East Bay, like Concord, which is forecast to get up to 105 degrees, Sarment said. She also confirmed that Sunday afternoon’s 49ers game at Levi’s Stadium is “set to be the hottest kickoff time ever” at 90 degrees, which goes back to the stadium’s opening date in 2014. (Two other games are tied for a previous record of 87 degrees – against the Carolina Panthers on Sept. 10, 2017 and the Cleveland Browns on Oct. 7, 2019.) 

The relentless heat – and the length of the event in particular – was somewhat unexpected by forecasters. 

“Unfortunately, what happened was we had this ridge that was just not able to budge,” Sarment said. “There was nothing coming behind it to move it, no low-pressure system to break it down, and it just stayed. The forecast pattern was supposed to be a shorter event, but we just kept having to push it back and back and back.” 

It may not be the hottest or the longest heat wave of the year – that was back in July, Sarment said. “But this is notable for this time of year,” she continued. “What I can say is that San Jose has never had three straight days over 100. From October 1st to the 3rd, they did.”

The observation site for Santa Rosa also broke its yearly record for 100-plus degree days, recording 13 days in the triple-digits throughout the year, four of which were from this week’s heat wave, she said.

Temperatures are expected to gradually decline this week prior to yet another possible warmup. Most of the Bay Area will descend to the low 90s and upper 80s by Tuesday, and temperatures will slowly taper off at 5-degree increments from there. A low-pressure trough moving in from the Gulf of Alaska is forecast to bring a significant drop in temperatures and less than a 15% chance of rain for the North Bay on Friday. 

“I hesitate to even use the word cooler, but we’ll definitely have fewer triple-digit spots,” Sarment said. “There’s not going to be a front coming in and dropping temperatures by 20 degrees, unfortunately.”

For now, whether people are at the 49ers game, cooling off at the beach or spending any time in the sun, she recommended staying hydrated and knowing the signs of heat stroke, heat exhaustion and cold-water shock. Avoid drinking alcohol and practice safety in the water, swimming near a lifeguard and wearing a life jacket, Sarment said. 

She also advised practicing fire safety, even though winds are forecast to remain light. 

“We still have near critical fire weather conditions, and fuels are extremely dry,” she said. “Don’t drive or park on dry vegetation – that’s how a lot of fires have started this year. Be mindful of lawn mowers and weed wackers, and make sure you’re fully extinguishing barbecues, campfires and cigarettes.” 

“Hopefully people are taking this seriously, because it’s still going to be very hot today,” Sarment added.

Source: https://www.sfgate.com/weather/article/bay-area-heat-wave-record-breaking-19819352.php

By Amy Graff, Senior News Editor

Oct 4, 2024

With dry, desiccating offshore winds developing in the San Francisco Bay Area during a severe early-autumn heat wave, officials warned Friday that the risk of wildfire sparks and spread is high.

The National Weather Service issued a red flag warning just before 11 a.m. on Friday for the East Bay hills, including Mount Diablo, the Santa Cruz Mountains, the hills of eastern Santa Clara County, the Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest, the mountains of San Benito County, and interior Monterey County, including Pinnacles National Park. It will remain in effect through 9 a.m. Saturday, though Roger Gass, a meteorologist with the weather service, said it could be extended.

The weather service advised people who live in these areas to have an emergency plan in case a wildfire starts. Any fire that sparks could spread rapidly. “Do not burn outside as weather conditions will be conducive for rapid fire starts,” the agency said.

The warning was issued due to three main factors that are creating the perfect recipe for rapid wildfire spread: low humidity, breezy winds, and vegetation that has become critically dry and highly flammable after an unusually hot summer and amid a record-breaking heat wave.

The scorcher started Monday, with inland temperatures soaring into the triple digits and coastal locations in the 80s to 90s. At the start of the week, the forecast indicated the heat wave would be over by the end of the workweek, but the latest predictions indicate it will persist into the weekend. 

The offshore winds, also known as the Diablo winds, are expected to be relatively weak Friday, generally blowing at 5 to 15 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph. “It’s a low-end threat, but as the grasses remain very dry, we thought it was warranted to post this red flag warning,” Gass said. “The Santa Cruz Mountains and the East Bay hills are mainly impacted, mainly elevations above 1,000 feet.”

The offshore winds are expected to relax Saturday, but if they persist, the red flag warning could be extended, Gass said.

Source: https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/october-heat-wave-bay-area-wildfire-risk-19815935.php

By Amy Graff, Senior News Editor

Oct 3, 2024

The end of this early autumn San Francisco Bay Area heat wave keeps getting pushed back. When the scorching weather first arrived Monday, forecasts indicated temperatures would drop by the end of the week, but the latest forecast shows Saturday and Sunday will still be hot, especially across inland areas, with widespread temperatures in the 90s.

“It keeps getting extended, it's been doing that all week,” said Dylan Flynn, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. “The tail has grown longer and longer. It seems like every day we come in, it's going to last another day.”

On Thursday, the weather service extended an excessive heat warning for the East Bay, South Bay and inland San Mateo County to Saturday night with possible afternoon highs up to 108 degrees. A less severe heat advisory for San Francisco and North Bay valleys was also pushed to Saturday night with highs in the mid-80s to mid-90s expected.

Temperatures Thursday were slightly lower than they were Wednesday, and the cooling trend is predicted to continue into Friday. Still, the mercury is forecast to pop back up over the weekend as a ridge of high pressure remains parked in place over the Pacific Ocean and noses into California, according to the weather service. While low pressure brings cool weather, high pressure brings warming and sunny skies.

“There's not really a big cold front expected to come through and knock out that high pressure,” said Flynn. “The ridge of high pressure over us is going to slowly erode over the next four days.”

A more pronounced cooldown is predicted to arrive next week. “Tuesday is when we get quite a bit of a break,” Flynn said. “San Jose goes from 90 degrees on Monday to 83 on Tuesday.”

The Bay Area has seen sizzling temperatures since Monday amid the prolonged heat wave. Inland locations have soared into the 100s; these are temperatures that valley locations see frequently during summer scorchers. The bigger story this week is that the coast has generally seen the hottest weather of the year so far.

Downtown San Francisco recorded a high of 94 on Tuesday and 95 on Wednesday, the highest temperatures measured in the city in 2024. While SF usually sees the hottest weather of the year in September and October, readings this high in October are rare. Flynn said he looked at data for the downtown gauge going back to 1874 and found that before this week, the city has recorded temperatures of 94 and above only 15 times (which nets out to about once a decade). The all-time high for October is 102, recorded in 1987. 

Across the bay in Sausalito, Kevin Levey, a meteorologist and lecturer at San Francisco State University, recorded three consecutive days of daytime highs of 97 and above. The weather gauge he monitors at his home in north Sausalito — which is considered the cooler, windier part of town — recorded a high of 97.3 on Monday, 101.8 on Tuesday and 97.3 on Wednesday. Levey has run the station for 19 years, sending data to WeatherUnderground, and he has never recorded three consecutive days of heat like this in October, he said. 

“The summer season is lengthening,” he said. “This past September was an extension of August. Due to climate change, our summers are tending to be a little longer.”

The heat came to the coast this week as the marine layer broke down. “The marine layer is pretty much gone at the moment,” NWS meteorologist Rachel Kennedy said. “We’re very clear right now.”

The marine layer is the mass of ocean-cooled air that hugs the California coast and often holds a layer of fog. It keeps coastal areas cool in the summer and acts as a natural air conditioner. In the fall, as the ocean breeze relaxes and offshore winds pick up as they have this week, the marine layer breaks down. Those offshore winds, also known as Diablo winds, blow hot inland air toward the coast. 

On Thursday, temperatures were slightly cooler at the coast than they were Wednesday due to a “sliver of a marine layer influence,” the weather service said in its forecast. Downtown San Francisco sat at 80 degrees just before 3 p.m. on Thursday. At this time Wednesday, the city was 91 degrees. The city is expected to get up to as high as 85 degrees on Thursday and approach 81 on Friday, 87 on Saturday, 86 on Sunday and 79 on Monday before dropping all the way down to 70 on Tuesday, according to the weather service. And so, the end of the heat wave is in sight.

Source: https://www.sfgate.com/weather/article/when-will-the-san-francisco-bay-area-heat-wave-end-19813729.php