Alright, let's start with AGOT prologue..

The others actually seem to be observing Ser Waymar Royce before they attacked, now we know Ser Waymar looks like a Stark, and probably the others thought he was a Stark, which is why at first they just stand there observing, judging what sword he has and only after when they know that the sword is not ICE or any valyrian steel they mock and attack Ser Waymar.

Now, what if Ser Waymar Royce actually had valyrian steel sword "Lamentation" with him, being the ancestral sword of House Royce and that he has blood of the first men in his veins; how you do think the others would react and what would have happened after!? Would ser Waymar be able to kill white walkers and how then the story will change after!?

I made a post a while back discussing what asoiaf dragons actually looked and how large drogon actually was.

https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/11knsfe/drogons_size_and_the_proportions_of_asoiaf/

I've now decided to move onto the speed of which dragons can fly.

I looked extensively into Fire & Blood and found that George actually has made some consistent laws about this when you look at where the Targaryens actually fly around to before taking pause at a castle or keep.

Now I want to preface by saying that it is very unlikely that dragons all flew exactly the same speed (we know Meleys for example was the swiftest of all Targ dragons) and I also doubt that Targs forced their dragons into a "sprint" at all times. I think most journeys were set at "cruising" speeds and that their dragons only accelerated this when journey's were longer.

For example, a dragon may fly 50km/h for a 400km journey, but travel at 100km/h on a 800km journey to make up for time.

I would also like to consider two things, that George may consider what velocities a human being can actually sustain in flight, or George wants us to stfu and accept that people flew dragons. I will consider both options in my calculations. I will consider though, that even on a realistic approach that we can say that maybe the positioning of the rider offers some protection against harsh wind.

The distance between King's Landing and Dragonstone is about 643km (400miles), and is consistently the most common flight trajectory of every Targaryen in the series. The timing it takes to complete this journey is never answered, but, if we look at other journeys that Targaryens made before resting, specifically Alysanne and Jaehaerys, we see that in almost every instance that dragons are used to travel, they never really go further than the DS - KL distance except for a few exceptions.

In their journey to Oldtown, George writes

Even for a dragon, the flight from King's Landing to Oldtown is a long one. The king and queen stopped twice along the way, once at Bitterbridge and once at Highgarden.

Later they traverse on foot with their caravan until they reach Blackhaven whereby they depart for Storm's End via dragon.

Once more Vermithor and Silverwing took to the skies, to bring the king and queen to their mother's side as quickly as possible

King's Landing - Bitterbridge = 660km (410miles)

Bitterbridge - Highgarden = 500km (310miles)

Highgarden - Oldtown = 482km (300 miles)

Blackhaven - Storm's End = 500km (310 miles)

During Alysanne's progress North, she takes similar flights

White Harbour - Winterfell = 500km (310miles)

Alysanne's flight to the wall is described as

The distance was not negligible, even flight; her Grace landed at the Last Hearth and several smaller keeps and holdfasts on her way

The distance is just under 965km(600miles). Once again, F&B comments that the distance is long and requires smaller breaks, though Alysanne likely made increased stops towards the Wall for the public relations between the far North and the Crown. So it is unlikely that Alysanne flew greater than 643km in a single trip to the Wall.

For the most part, every Targaryen flies within a 500-700km before stopping for the day. It is likely that either this is the maximum distances that either themselves and/or their dragons tire, or that it simply takes too long.

In either case, if KL - DS is our limit than it is likely that it takes between 8-12 hours of flying to reach King's Landing, giving ASOIAF dragons an average cruising speed of 50 - 80 km/h.

The reason I emphasise cruising, is that we actually have three outliers that would put make these flights seem like a hatchlings' first step.

Visenya's, Aegon's and Maegor's flights from Dragonstone to Pentos.

Potentially Aegon's flight from Pentos to Lys.

Rhaenyra and Daemon's race from King's Landing to Dragonstone (and back).

Queen Rhaenys' Dornish Invasion.

The distance between Dragonstone and Pentos is around 844km (525miles) and required no referenced stops for any of the three Targaryens. At a speed of 50 - 80km/h, the journey would take between 10 hrs 30 minutes - 16hrs 52 minutes of straight flying. I find the lower number here unlikely, I don't think any dragon nor rider could stay awake or sustain themselves for that long, so it likely pushes the flying speed of a dragon closer to 80km/h whereby the time to get to Pentos is long but doable. I find it reasonable to assume that even on smaller journies, such as from King's Landing to Dragonstone (643km), that dragons would also fly at 80km/h. This would still require almost 8hrs of flying and can very well be considered a "day" trip and wanting to rest for the rest of their night.

Fire & Blood tells us that Aegon, before the conquest, had flown from Dragonstone to Pentos to Lys. They do not specify whether Aegon flew to Lys in one great flight but I do find it more likely that he rested in Myr on the way. This would break his journey up to

Dragonstone - Pentos = 844km (525miles)

Petnos - Myr = 844km (525 miles)

Myr = Lys = 725km (450miles)

Each of these journies are longer than what is usually expected of a Targaryen, but at 80km/h, they would each take 10hrs and 30 minutes to complete. If required, it could be possible that instead Aegon flew much faster, at 100-120km/h instead. This would make his flights around 7 hrs - 8hrs 24mins.

Lets move onto why I've been emphasising "crusing" speed.

Fire & Blood tells us that Daemon and Rhaenyra would race Syrax and Caraxes to Dragonstone and back. The implication, to me at least, is that this 'race' took place in a day. That would mean that within a single day they flew at 1286km (800 miles) without stopping. At 80km/h, the journey would take 16hrs to complete. Yet George specifically mentions "racing" their dragons. So I find it more likely that they were moving at a greater than 'cruising' speed. Personally, I think 100- 120km/h seems a fair enough estimation. This journey would take 10hrs 42mins - 12hrs 51mins. Daemon has been known to make several flights from Westeros to Essos, as well as a strong and capable warrior. Rhaenyra is the youngest flier in history, having flown Syrax since she was 7 years old. I find it perfectly reasonable that both riders were able to not only fly at these speeds, but likely did so often. If we take the realisim out, I think it more likely they flew even faster.

If Targaryens did typically fly at 100-120km/h, than a single flight from Kings' Landing to Dragonstone only lasted between 5hrs 21mins - 6hrs 26mins.

Lastly we must examine our most egregious feat, and that is Rhaenys' Invasion of Dorne.

She flew above the [Princess] Pass, above the red sands and the white, and desceded upon Vaith...Rhaenys followed the river downstream to Godsgrace...On she flew. Where the Greenblood met the sea, Rhaenys came upon the Planky Town....Finally the Queen's flight took her to Sunspear.

To me, the implication is that Rhaenys made this long trip within the day with several stops along the way to explore castles and keeps. At each of these locations, Rhaenys is essentially told to fuck off and is not given shelter. There is no mention whether she found a cave or mountain to camp at during the night either.

Princess Path - Vaith = 550km (550 miles)

Vaith - Godsgrace = 128.74km (80 miles)

Godsgrace - Planky Town = 273km (170miles)

Planky Town - Sunspear = 112.65km (70miles)

Total = 1064km (1712miles)

As Rhaenyra and Daemon proves, this flight is possible to do within a day, especially if you're traveling at about 120km/h. For Rhaenys, this would take about 8hrs 51mins, not including when she would make her stops to explore. This is very believable.

But this is where I must frown.

Rhaenys is forced to leave Sunspear, and as showcased by her journey towards the capital, she is not welcome anywhere. This is the middle of an invasion. She is not said to have made any stops elsewhere either. If that is the case....If Rhaenys flew back to the Princess Pass to rejoin her army, that would be DOUBLE her journey, giving her a whopping distance flown (in a single day) of 2128km (1322miles). Even at 120km/h, Rhaenys would have needed to fly at least 17hrs 49mins.

So we have two ways of looking at this.

That Rhaenys did in fact make a stop before returning to her army. This could have included resting outside of Dorne and making camp, though this would add an additional 482km (300 miles) to her journey and an additional 4hrs of flying, giving her a total of 12hrs 51 minutes of flying in a single day. This is exactly the distance Rhaenyra and Daemon race, and within the time they complete it. It should be noted that Rhaenys loved to fly more than anything else in the world, and likely was an incredible flier.

The other option would be to consider Rhaenys did indeed return to the Princess Pass in the same day, but flew at an even greater velocity, possibly even at 180km/h. This would mean make the journey last just under 12hrs.

To conclude,

It is unlikely that dragons kept to a single speed during flight, and possibly were capable of far greater speeds than what their rider wished.

But in cruising, dragons typically flew as slow as 50km/h or as high 80km/h, though I think the greater number may be more true. In swifter dragons such as Meleys, she her 'cruising' speed may have been greater at 90-100km/h.

In cases in which Targaryens needed to make haste, dragons flew at 100-120km/h.

In our most egregious example of Rhaenys' traveling the whole of Dorne and back in a single day, dragons may have flown at their fastest at 180km/h.

TL;DR: Targaryens/Dragons' cruising speed is typically 80km/h, though it is possible they flew as slow as 50km/h. When required, dragons flew at speeds closer to 100-120km/h.

So Unsullied are trained in the way of the three spears. At a glance this may make them like Roman legions, except... well, not really. For one, classical Roman legion of the Republic and the Principate carried two javelins, not three. Late Roman legions had no javelins at all, but only weighted darts and spears. The only Roman soldiers who carried three javelins were the velites of the Republic... but the velites were a loose-order skirmish (light) infantry, a description which clearly does not apply to the Unsullied who are heavy infantry. Secondly, according to Polybius, classical Roman legions fought in what was basically a typical close order with some three feet of spacing between the legionaries in both file and rank. Yet he also says that there were two phalangites opposite each Roman soldier, and with Macedonian phalanx having three feet spacing, that would imply spacing of six feet - which is what Vegetius says. Six feet of spacing would mean that Roman fighting order was basically a semi-loose skirmish order, something that would be completely at odds with descriptions we have of the Unsullied fighting. But even if Romans did use the three feet spacing, size and shape of the scutum would prevent them from locking their shields, and their lines would probably be closer to what we see in intervention police riot shield tactics.

Unsullied however:

“The Dothraki charged. The Unsullied locked their shields, lowered their spears, and stood firm. Against twenty thousand screamers with bells in their hair, they stood firm.

Eighteen times the Dothraki charged, and broke themselves on those shields and spears like waves on a rocky shore. Thrice Temmo sent his archers wheeling past and arrows fell like rain upon the Three Thousand, but the Unsullied merely lifted their shields above their heads until the squall had passed. In the end only six hundred of them remained... but more than twelve thousand Dothraki lay dead upon that field"

"“Are all Westerosi pigs so ignorant?” he complained. “All the world knows that the Unsullied are masters of spear and shield and shortsword.”

They begin their training at five. Every day they train from dawn to dusk, until they have mastered the shortsword, the shield, and the three spears."

"Dany settled on her bench and wrapped her pelt about her shoulders once again. “The Unsullied are my finest warriors.”

“Soldiers, not warriors, if it please Your Grace. They were made for the battlefield, to stand shoulder to shoulder behind their shields with their spears thrust out before them. Their training teaches them to obey, fearlessly, perfectly, without thought or hesitation … not to unravel secrets or ask questions.”"

"Dead or alive, the Butcher King still took the Wise Masters unawares. The Yunkishmen were still running about in fluttering tokars trying to get their half-trained slave soldiers into some semblance of order as Unsullied spears came crashing through their siege lines. If not for their allies and their despised hirelings they might well have been overwhelmed, but the Windblown and the Company of the Cat were ahorse in minutes and came thundering down on the Astapori flanks even as a legion from New Ghis pushed through the Yunkish camp from the other side and met the Unsullied spear to spear and shield to shield."

"Farther on, two legions from New Ghis were facing off shield wall to shield wall whilst serjeants in iron halfhelms with horsehair crests screamed commands in their own incomprehensible dialect. To the naked eye the Ghiscari looked more formidable than the Yunkish slave soldiers, but Tyrion nursed doubts. The legionaries might be armed and organized in the same manner as Unsullied … but the eunuchs knew no other life, whereas the Ghiscari were free citizens who served for three-year terms."

Unsullied clearly utilize a shield wall formation, specifically one of interlocking shields. This would imply large round shields similar to Greek hoplon or Roman clipeus, which would work well with their focus on group tactics. This does however mean that the "three spears" mentioned cannot be Roman verutum, pilum, hasta system (where verutum is light javelin used by the velites, pilum heavy javelin used by the Hastati and Principes and hasta a long stabby spear used by the triarii), unless there is a specialization in the ranks where front ranks use long stabbing spears and rear ranks use javelins. If Unsullied had skirmishers such as Greek psiloi or Roman velites, then one could argue that these would use javelins and the phalangites the spear, but they do not. And likewise we see no indication of specialization in the Unsullied ranks that would allow for javelins to be utilized in the phalanx in support of front ranks, or perhaps having even a spearmen / pikemen / javelin men split in the units.

Ghiscari legion in TWoW spoilers however deployed in six ranks, three of spearmen and three of javelin men. This is somewhat reminiscent of Late Roman legion, where front ranks were comprised of spearmen holding spears, while rear ranks - though also of spearmen - would throw plumbata (weighted lead darts) against the enemy. It is still fundamentally a shield wall formation, but one fair bit more advanced than a typical phalanx. I do not think we have ever seen the Unsullied utilize this particular formation, however.

Thoughts?

We know Euron abused Aeron and Urrigon during their childhoods but there's no mention of Victarion in the text.

This doesn't necessarily mean Victarion was spared though. Urri and Aeron shared sleeping quarters, so we don't actually know what happened in Victarian’s room.

From memory, he doesn't allude to anything in his POVs but there are still a few hints - at Oakenshield, he is highly disturbed by Euron’s nakedness and asks him to cover himself. He also comes across as an emotionally stunted and closed off character, potentially due to past trauma.

It also seems odd that Euron would murder and/or abuse four younger brothers while growing up, but do nothing sinister to a fifth (until adulthood and only through his wife.)

What do you all think?

Garth Greenhand = Samwise Gamgee from LOTR.

Seriously. I just watched an In Deep Geek video, where he mentioned that Samwise's descendants used Gardener as their last name. And it goes much deeper than that.

Sam spent the rest of his life growing new plants all over the Shire, using the magic soil given to him by Galadriel. And Garth Greenhand spread farming across the Reach, using new techniques/magic that didn't exist yet in Westeros.

Sam and Rosie had 13 kids, which is a lot compared with other characters in LOTR. Garth Greenhand had like a million kids, and was the progenitor of most houses in the Reach.

Sam's descendants even included the "Fairbairns of the Towers"(reference). And House Hightower are descendants of Garth Greenhand.

So we have two characters who spread plants and farming using outside magic, who have loads of kids, have descendants who are associated with Towers, and who start a family literally called the Gardeners.

This absolutely has to be a deliberate reference by GRRM.

So an interesting fact is that Tyrion was 16 during the Greyjoy Rebellion while Asha was either 13 or 14. This happened three years after the Tysha situation with Tyrion

Say if after the Greyjoys were beaten into submission and subservient to the Iron Throne again, Tywin made a demand of reparations in the form of Asha being betrothed and married to Tyrion. Theon was already being sent away to be a ward/prisoner of Ned Stark at Winterfell. Why not add more salt to the wound by “ruining” Balon’s chances of wedding Asha to another House of the Iron Islands?

Tywin was always delusional about the fact he always assumed Jaime would be free of the white cloak of the Kingsguard and take his place as Tywin’s heir to Casterly Rock.

Would Tywin have wanted Tyrion married to even a Greyjoy to ruin Tyrion’s chances of a better marriage option in the future? And would he send Tyrion to Pyke to “be with his betrothed” just as he probably wanted to do with Tyrion and Sansa in canon?

Would a marriage like this even be possible? Would Tyrion be sent with an honor guard to Pyke? Would Asha kill Tyrion? Or would the two conspire together? Or would Tywin make a demand like having Asha betrothed to Lancel or Daven Lannister?

How does it go down when the “Iron price” meets “Lannisters paying their debts”?

Do yall think he'd still betray the Blacks, and if he does how do you think he does it?

Maybe him and Aemond end up agreeing to ambush him, making Daemon think he'd be on his side so when he and Hugh were searching for him, and found him Daemon rushes in to kill him, but then they betrayal happens and Aemond and Hugh completely destroy him.

How do things go in the South at Tumbleton? Does Ulf stay betray but Nettles doesn't, and Daeron and Ulf kill her in the battle before destroying the Black army there?

How does the rest of the war proceed?

i just took a massive dose of copium so hear me out

GRRM will come out and say that hes done with winds and that he is now geting started on ados somewhere in the end of this month/beginning of march so next part is where copium really hits cus end of winter/beginning of spring=a dream of spring, so what better time to anounce finishing TWOW and the next book which is called A DREAM OF SPRING???

also i thought the exact same thing about twow in december so im just spiraling

ASOIAF is probably my favorite piece of fiction of all time. First and foremost, medieval fantasy is my drug. But also I love the gritty-ness, the way it interweaves historical fiction with light fantasy elements, the scheming & politics, the deep deep layers to plot points and character motivations...

I think a big thing for me also is that largely ASOIAF feels realistic and groudned. When fantasy leans more and more into the magical and otherworldly, it starts to lose my interest. In ASOIAF, outside of dragons & white walkers, most of the story feels really grounded and realistic, and even for the bits that start to push those limits there is logic behind them and they are explained in a way that makes sense.

That also goes for the way things are described, so matter-of-fact, even in brutal or explicit scenes George doesn't hold back on getting into the details of what's happening. In that way, Young Adult fiction tends to lose me too, as cool as some of the story concepts can be I get really turned off at how self-insistent and forced the drama can feel at times.

-

I lay all this out because I'm curious if anyone else in the ASOIAF community has read the books by Rebecca Yaros, and what you thought of them. I know next-to-nothing about them other than the fact that they're getting a lot of attention now and they involve dragons, some of the editions look cool as fuck with dragons printed on the page ends, and the fact that there are apparently a couple of light smut scenes lol.

As someone who loves ASOIAF would I enjoy them? Especially with my preferences leaning more toward historical & grounded rather than magical and mythological?

Have any of you read them, what did you think, how would you compare or contrast them to ASOIAF?

 Does anyone have any book recommendations that evoke the same folk magic vibes as either the Ironborn/Drowned God or the Crannogmen?  

Their culture and magical elements are just so compelling to me, and I want more!

I know Lovecraft exists and also Norse myths/Viking stories, but I wanna see if there are other works I’m not aware of:) Thanks!

So, just to say at the beginning, this is not a theory or a text analysis—simply my take on that possibility.

The most interesting thing about this possibility is the 180-degree shift in perspective it could offer. We, as readers, expect an Aegon vs. Lannister clash, only for them to become allies (a kind of twist George likes to make). Obviously, for this to happen, Tommen has to die (and it seems no one expects him to survive). The story would become even more interesting if the Martells joined Aegon, leading to Martell/Lannister drama.

Also, Cersei is my favorite POV, and she has a certain fixation on Rhaegar. Imagine a chapter from her perspective witnessing the wedding between Myrcella and Aegon. Would she be jealous in a twisted Cersei way? Or would she (mis)interpret Maggy’s prophecy in a new light, thinking Myrcella is the "new queen" meant to replace her?

Additionally, if Aegon is a false Targaryen and Myrcella a false Baratheon, it adds another layer of irony to the whole "rightful ruler" debate. (It also, in a way, has a slight parallel to Henry Tudor and Elizabeth York, if only loosely).

In ASOS, the ghost of high heart spouts some visions that accurately predict the future, such as Renly's death and the red wedding. However, one vision that stands out is the one about the maiden with poisonous snakes in her hair. It is widely accepted that this is Sansa killing Joffrey with her hairnet. However, it is the next part of this vision that interests me.

'Slaying a giant in a castle made of snow'. The giant is believed to be none other than Lord Petyr Baelish, because of his house having the Titan of Bravoss as its sigil. The castle made of snow is definitely Winterfell. This means that, like in the show, Sansa will defeat the savage giant and finally kill the guy who started the War of the Five Kings.

But how? While the show had Bran use magic and stuff and a sibling rivalry between the sisters, I find this to be stupid. In my opinion, Littlefinger, Lord of Harrenhal and the Riverlands, Protector of the Vale, will walk into the crypts of Winterfell. And while gazing at the statue of his enemy Ned Stark, the crypts promptly collapse, killing him instantly.

But how do you think the savage giant will be slain?

I have recently began inmersing myself into the lore of ASOIF, and am aware that this question has probably been asked to death already, but I am curious.

I am curious since it would appear that he truly loved Rhaenys to an extent that was not duly reciprocated towards Visenya. It might even seem as though he deliberately kept her at arms length. Or was it perhaps even the other way around?

Yet I am also aware that absence of proof is not proof of absence, and that they might have loved one another in their own Targaryen-sibling special way.

I don’t know if this question was asked before, i am sure it was. But if you can force GRRM to put the pov of one character in the prologue of wow who would it be? And why? And what would that chapter contain?

I think GRRM should adapted his Shrouded Lord chapter into a short sotry by swapping out Tyrion for his uncle Gerion Lannister. Just make it a snapshot of his quest to Valyria.

Edit: It's a bit out of the way but maybe the current Shrouded Lord is rumored to have been to Valyria

(How would you fix these plot holes that led to the Starks' defeat in the War of the Five Kings?

• Tywin Lannister somehow conquers more than half the castles in the Trident within two weeks, forcing Robb Stark to rush in gathering his bannermen and leaving him no choice but to accept the Freys' terms.
• Ser Rodrik Cassel inexplicably leaves Winterfell completely unguarded, taking all the men with him. As an experienced castellan, he should have at least left a garrison of 100 men.
• Tywin Lannister advances across the entire Trident, seizing most of its castles without facing significant losses or suffering any supply issues.

Wich Targaryen would you say were the most capable, but never became King/Queen. Either through premature death or because of the succession, etc.

My top 3 list:

1. Baelor ,,Breakspear" Targaryen

Its literally stated that he was an awesome guy and heir. His death is counted as a true tragedy for the realm.

2. Maester Aemon

A very humble guy, who was actually the fabourite to inherit from Maekar, before Egg. He has the patience and disposition of a wise ruler

3. Aemon/Baelor (sons of Jaeherys)

I pick them both as one, because both seem capable and their deaths are kinda treated as one big tragedy. Either one of them living could have prevented the Dance. If Aemon lives there is no succession crisis and maybe he even has more children than just Rhaenys. If Baelor lives Viserys has enough time to make more children before he becomes King and doesnt rush Aemma so much, in order to get Kids.

Honorable Mentions:

Daemon Blackfyre - technically not a Targaryen, but he kinda is since, both parents are Targs and he was legitimized. He seems to have been a good guy and capable. He probably wouldnt have rebelled either, if people didnt get in his head.

Jon Snow - assuming R+L=J is true of course. I doubt he will become King, but he has the Temperament and disposition of a King. He was raised with honorable values and didnt grow up in the absolute luxury of a trueborn Royal child. Since it hasnt happened yet he is only a honorable mention

Daenerys - same thing as with Jon. Actually she and Jon would be a good King/Queen combo, but Westeros isnt that lucky....

Ser Gerold Hightower

Prince Lewyn Martell

Ser Barristan Selmy

Ser Oswell Whent

Ser Arthur Dayne

Ser Jonothor Darry

Would they have killed Aerys and the pyromancers, or just stopped him?

So I have been wondering... if Robbs Will indeed legitimizes Jon, does that only count as a Stark? Or does it remove bastardy in general? If R+L=J was revealed AND proven, would that make Jon a legitimate Targaryen as well or only a Stark.

I think it doesnt matter, since the last Name doesnt matter in inheritance. Even with a Stark surname Jon would be the last living legitimate child of Rhaegar -> So next in line after Rhaegar.

But still something I wonder.

I don't have an idea for what precisely is going to happen but I feel like a lot of the major elements of the 4th crusade are present in our storym

The major event of the 4th crusade was the crusaders choice to siege and sack the Christian city of Constantinople in part due to debt that had been incurred to venetian bankers.This event resulted in a schism between the East and West and fractured the Byzantine empire. ( This is Wikipedia lvl research)

Our story has a number of elements that add up to the 4th crusade

1.Kings Landing's map is directly inspired after Constantinople. Go look at both of them. He did this because the Battle of the Black water is based on a battle at Constantinople . It would be very reasonable for him to want to make use of further Constantinople history as looking at the history of how battles were fought there can simplify keeping track of everything when viewing it from a POV.

2. The bankers from a city of ships in our fantasy story ( The iron bank of Braavos) are clearly inspired in part by Venice. And Cersei just pissed them off by delaying payment. Aegons connections to Illiryo(a pentoshi) may not improve relations.

3. Meaningful amounts of page space have been dedicated to developing the faith militant in our story. If George wants to have events surrounding them be partly drawn from history at least ONE OF the crusades should definitely be considered as an inspiration.

Furthermore with stories like "And Seven Times Never Kill Man" where George features and heavily parodies war obsessed militant faiths, writing his own version of arguably the most embarrassing event of that culture seems right up his ally.

Is it going to involve Aegons siege of Kings Landing, is it going to be an event pushed off until ADOS? I'm not sure, but as vague as this idea is I feel like a lot of the pieces are there.

Something I've just noticed that is hidden in plain sight as I was rereading the last Jon chapter for events of the Shieldhall and reading the Shieldhall meeting part and the parts that lead up to it in full and not just the relevant parts to the quotes I was searching as I had done dozens if not already more than a hundred times before, I have noticed something that I hadn't before simply because after my first read, I've never read the 2 relevant paragraphs together in full. I've read one or the other numerous times but without reading them both in a single read together.

This will be a brief theory with few quotes in evidence and unfortunately the most important bit is not outright spelled out but requires some interpretation.

Before jumping straight to the important part, here's some background information that we need to remember, Others are already close to the Wall, they've been hounding Tormund's host, nibbling at it at every oppurtunity and had tailed it all the way to the Wall.

ADWD Jon XI, Tormund and Jon parlay, negotiating on terms to let the wildlings cross.

“Oh, I do.” The grin melted away like snow in summer. “I am not the man I was at Ruddy Hall. Seen too much death, and worse things too. My sons …” Grief twisted Tormund’s face. “Dormund was cut down in the battle for the Wall, and him still half a boy. One o’ your king’s knights did for him, some bastard all in grey steel with moths upon his shield. I saw the cut, but my boy was dead before I reached him. And Torwynd … it was the cold claimed him. Always sickly, that one. He just up and died one night. The worst o’ it, before we ever knew he’d died he rose pale with them blue eyes. Had to see to him m’self. That was hard, Jon.” Tears shone in his eyes. “He wasn’t much of a man, truth be told, but he’d been me little boy once, and I loved him.”

Jon put a hand on his shoulder. “I am so sorry.”
“Why? Weren’t your doing. There’s blood on your hands, aye, same as mine. But not his.” Tormund shook his head. “I still have two strong sons.”

Cold claimed Torwynd one night and he became a wight before anyone even noticing he had died. Others were close to them.

ADWD Jon XII, wildlings are crossing the wall

Jon turned in his saddle, frowning. And Joramun blew the Horn of Winter and woke giants from the earth. That huge horn with its bands of old gold, incised with ancient runes … had Mance Rayder lied to him, or was Tormund lying now? If Mance’s horn was just a feint, where is the true horn?

By afternoon the sun had gone, and the day turned grey and gusty. “A snow sky,” Tormund announced grimly.
Others had seen the same omen in those flat white clouds. It seemed to spur them on to haste. Tempers began to fray. One man was stabbed when he tried to slip in ahead of others who had been hours in the column. Toregg wrenched the knife away from his attacker, dragged both men from the press, and sent them back to the wildling camp to start again.
“Tormund,” Jon said, as they watched four old women pull a cartful of children toward the gate, “tell me of our foe. I would know all there is to know of the Others.”
The wildling rubbed his mouth. “Not here,” he mumbled, “not this side o’ your Wall.” The old man glanced uneasily toward the trees in their white mantles. “They’re never far, you know. They won’t come out by day, not when that old sun’s shining, but don’t think that means they went away. Shadows never go away. Might be you don’t see them, but they’re always clinging to your heels.”
“Did they trouble you on your way south?”

“They never came in force, if that’s your meaning, but they were with us all the same, nibbling at our edges. We lost more outriders than I care to think about, and it was worth your life to fall behind or wander off. Every nightfall we’d ring our camps with fire. They don’t like fire much, and no mistake. When the snows came, though … snow and sleet and freezing rain, it’s bloody hard to find dry wood or get your kindling lit, and the cold … some nights our fires just seemed to shrivel up and die. Nights like that, you always find some dead come the morning. ’Less they find you first. The night that Torwynd … my boy, he …” Tormund turned his face away.

“I know,” said Jon Snow.
Tormund turned back. “You know nothing. You killed a dead man, aye, I heard. Mance killed a hundred. A man can fight the dead, but when their masters come, when the white mists rise up … how do you fight a mist, crow? Shadows with teeth … air so cold it hurts to breathe, like a knife inside your chest … you do not know, you cannot know … can your sword cut cold?”

We will see, Jon thought, remembering the things that Sam had told him, the things he'd found in his old books. Longclaw had been forged in the fires of old Valyria, forged in dragonflame and set with spells. Dragonsteel, Sam called it. Stronger than any common steel, lighter, harder, sharper … But words in a book were one thing. The true test came in battle."You are not wrong," Jon said. "I do not know. And if the gods are good, I never will.""The gods are seldom good, Jon Snow." Tormund nodded toward the sky. "The clouds roll in. Already it grows darker, colder. Your Wall no longer weeps. Look." He turned and called out to his son Toregg. "Ride back to the camp and get them moving. The sick ones and the weak ones, the slugabeds and cravens, get them on their bloody feet. Set their bloody tents afire if you must. The gate must close at nightfall. Any man not through the Wall by then had best pray the Others get to him afore I do. You hear?"

Tormund tell they had been at Tormund and his host's heel all the way, never attacking in force but slowly wearing them down. As the day continues, the day grows colder and darker enough that Wall no longer weeps. Toregg goes to handle the stragglers. Note also what Tormund says about the White Walkers, dead can be fought, their master White Walkers are shadows with teeth, the white mist air is like a knife inside the chest

ADWD Jon XII, day continues snow has started

A snowflake danced upon the air. Then another. Dance with me, Jon Snow, he thought. You'll dance with me anon.On and on and on the wildlings came. Some were moving faster now, hastening across the battleground. Others—the old, the young, the feeble—could scarce move at all. This morning the field had been covered with a thick blanket of old snow, its white crust shining in the sun. Now the field was brown and black and slimy. The passage of the free folk had turned the ground to mud and muck: wooden wheels and horses' hooves, runners of bone and horn and iron, pig trotters, heavy boots, the cloven feet of cows and bullocks, the bare black feet of the Hornfoot folk, all had left their marks. The soft footing slowed the column even more. "You need a bigger gate," Tormund complained again. By late afternoon the snow was falling steadily, but the river of wildlings had dwindled to a stream. Columns of smoke rose from the trees where their camp had been. "Toregg," Tormund explained. "Burning the dead. Always some who go to sleep and don't wake up. You find them in their tents, them as have tents, curled up and froze. Toregg knows what to do."

The stream was no more than a trickle by the time Toregg emerged from the wood. With him rode a dozen mounted warriors armed with spears and swords. "My rear guard," Tormund said, with a gap-toothed smile. "You crows have rangers. So do we. Them I left in camp in case we were attacked before we all got out."

A snow flake danced, then another, or maybe an Other? Especially considering the "dance with me anon" part, reminding very much of Waymar Royce's words, "Dance with me then" and it is very likely deliberate considering one meaning of the word "anon" is "then". As the day continues, snow starts to fall steadily Toregg burns the dead, few people remain, that is few people alive, to cross the Wall.

ADWD Jon II, Tormunds rear guard has returned, including Borroq, a skinchanger with a huge boar.

"Boars and wolves," said Tormund. "Best keep that beast o' yours locked up tonight. I'll see that Borroq does the same with his pig." He glanced up at the darkening sky. "Them's the last, and none too soon. It's going to snow all night, I feel it. Time I had a look at what's on t'other side of all that ice."

"You go ahead," Jon told him. "I mean to be the last one through the ice. I will join you at the feast."
...
The skinchanger stopped ten yards away. His monster pawed at the mud, snuffling. A light powdering of snow covered the boar's humped black back. He gave a snort and lowered his head, and for half a heartbeat Jon thought he was about to charge. To either side of him, his men lowered their spears."Brother," Borroq said.
"You'd best go on. We are about to close the gate.""You do that," Borroq said. "You close it good and tight. They're coming, crow." He smiled as ugly a smile as Jon had ever seen and made his way to the gate. The boar stalked after him. The falling snow covered up their tracks behind them.

Tormund tells it is going to snow all night, Borroq's boar starts snuffling, Borroq declares the Others are coming, it snows heavily enough to cover their tracks which had been turned into mud by all the people moving previously.

Now the part that is open to interpretation

ADWD JON XIII, brothers of the Watch, wildlings and queen's men gather at Shieldhall to hear Jon.

At the top of the hall a sagging platform stood. Jon mounted it, with Tormund Giantsbane at his side, and raised his hands for quiet. The wasps only buzzed the louder. Then Tormund put his warhorn to his lips and blew a blast. The sound filled the hall, echoing off the rafters overhead. Silence fell.

...
Then Jon read them the letter Ramsay Snow had written.
The Shieldhall went mad.

Every man began to shout at once. They leapt to their feet, shaking fists. So much for the calming power of comfortable benches. Swords were brandished, axes smashed against shields. Jon Snow looked to Tormund. The Giantsbane sounded his horn once more, twice as long and twice as loud as the first time.

Tormund blasts his horn to allow Jon to speak. He speaks, Shieldhall goes mad after Jon reads the letter, Tormund blows the horn for a second time, twice as long and twice as loud. This is the important part, we all know that one blast is for rangers returning, two for wildlings, three blasts? RUUUUUUUN! But this is from the perspective of NW and from a time the wildlings were enemies. They have now been allowed across the wall and even partially integrated and Tormund is not a ranger but a wildling himself. What we have instead of three blasts is two blasts, but the second twice as long and twice as loud, so essentially Tormund has blasted his horn enough for three blasts.

ADWD JON XIII, day continues, Jon leaves to go to Selyse, witnesses Wun Wun killing Patrek, there is turmoil and he gets attacked.

They had no idea of Wun Wun’s strength. A horn, I need a horn. He saw the glint of steel, turned toward it. “No blades!” he screamed. “Wick, put that knife …”

… away, he meant to say. When Wick Whittlestick slashed at his throat, the word turned into a grunt. Jon twisted from the knife, just enough so it barely grazed his skin. He cut me. When he put his hand to the side of his neck, blood welled between his fingers. “Why?”
“For the Watch.” Wick slashed at him again. This time Jon caught his wrist and bent his arm back until he dropped the dagger. The gangling steward backed away, his hands upraised as if to say, Not me, it was not me. Men were screaming. Jon reached for Longclaw, but his fingers had grown stiff and clumsy. Somehow he could not seem to get the sword free of its scabbard.
Then Bowen Marsh stood there before him, tears running down his cheeks. “For the Watch.” He punched Jon in the belly. When he pulled his hand away, the dagger stayed where he had buried it.
Jon fell to his knees. He found the dagger’s hilt and wrenched it free. In the cold night air the wound was smoking. “Ghost,” he whispered. Pain washed over him. Stick them with the pointy end. When the third dagger took him between the shoulder blades, he gave a grunt and fell face-first into the snow. He never felt the fourth knife. Only the cold …

Jon is assaulted he tries to reach Longclaw but his fingers are stiff and clumsy, not unlikely to be due to the cold. Remember what Tormund says? Air so cold like a knife in your chest, can your sword cut the cold? First slash grazes the neck, second punch hits him in the belly leaving the dagger buried, third takes him between the shoulder blades and falls face first, he does not feel the 4th blow, only the cold which may be the cold that accompanies the White Walkers.

The Reach under House Gardener was arguably the most powerful of the pre conquest kingdoms. How much of the continent do you they could have conquered and held in the long term?

They don't have dragons and don't have the knowledge of statecraft and administration that the Targaryen's more than likely brought from the freehold. As well as that if they go hard, the other regions may form pacts to defend against them.

I think their realistic extent would be conquering the crownlands/blackwater bay, western parts of the Stormlands like the Dornish marches but not the rest like the Shipwrecker bay and weeping town. I'd say their southern extent in the region would be to Stonehelm. The Stormlands strike me as the type with a strong martial background and they would be well dug in in this scenario.

In the Westerlands, I think they could conquer some southern and eastern parts but wouldn't be able to take the rock itself due to Lannister wealth, geographic advantage and houses in the Riverlands allying to stop the Reach's expansion.

I was reading Bran II ASOS, and Jojen interrupted Meera a few times seemingly confused on why Bran doesn't know the events of the Tournament of Harrenhall. He interrupted after Howland prayed to the Isle of Faces, and the biggest evidence is at the very end when Meera says Rhegar crowned Lyanna as The Queen of Love and Beauty. Man literally says "Are you certain you haven't heard this tale Bran? Your lord farther never told it to you?". We as the readers know this is when Rhegar first took interest in Lyanna, and Howland was at the Tower of Joy so he knows about Jon too. So would it be out of the realm of possibility he told his kids about every about Robert Rebellion the lead up and aftermath( tbf its major dad lore ) and his kids just assume The Starks kids know as well. Bran hardly bring up Jon for what its worth and if so not about him being a bastard but I could definitely be wrong about that last part.

I’ve been reading the in-universe history texts. I finished Fire & Blood, and am about halfway through The World of Ice and Fire.

I would really like to read more about the Great Bastards and the Blackfyre Rebellions. Should I pause TWOIAF and read A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms?

What are some events that changed the course of the entire story? Obviously we can’t know of these small acts in the beginning of the story (mainly fire & blood)

But what do you think?

Background

Mya Stone (Robert Baratheon's first confirmed bastard) was in love with Mychel Redfort before he was wed to one of Brone Rohn's daughters. With GRRM laying the groundwork for this way back in A Game of Thrones and then bringing it back up again in A Feast for Crows and The Winds of Winter, I thought it would be interesting to look at this situation in a little more detail.

If interested: Robert Baratheon's Bastards in TWoW & Beyond

A Game of Thrones

We find out about Mya very early in AGoT:

Ned remembered Robert's first child as well, a daughter born in the Vale when Robert was scarcely more than a boy himself. A sweet little girl; the young lord of Storm's End had doted on her. He used to make daily visits to play with the babe, long after he had lost interest in the mother. Ned was often dragged along for company, whether he willed it or not. The girl would be seventeen or eighteen now, he realized; older than Robert had been when he fathered her. A strange thought. -AGOT, Eddard VII

and:

"Robert will never keep to one bed," Lyanna had told him at Winterfell, on the night long ago when their father had promised her hand to the young Lord of Storm's End. "I hear he has gotten a child on some girl in the Vale." Ned had held the babe in his arms; he could scarcely deny her, nor would he lie to his sister,

If interested: "The Seed is Strong": Knowledge of the Royal Bastards

and then meet her officially as Cat traverses toward the Eyrie:

A wiry girl of seventeen or eighteen years stepped up beside Lord Nestor. Her dark hair was cropped short and straight around her head, and she wore riding leathers and a light shirt of silvered ringmail. She bowed to Catelyn, more gracefully than her lord. "I promise you, my lady, no harm will come to you. It would be my honor to take you up.

...

"Mya Stone, if it please you, my lady," the girl said.

It did not please her; it was an effort for Catelyn to keep the smile on her face. Stone was a bastard's name in the Vale, as Snow was in the north, and Flowers in Highgarden; in each of the Seven Kingdoms, custom had fashioned a surname for children born with no names of their own. Catelyn had nothing against this girl, but suddenly she could not help but think of Ned's bastard on the Wall, and the thought made her angry and guilty, both at once. She struggled to find words for a reply. -AGOT, Catelyn VI

she also discusses Mychel nonstop:

I've made the dark climb a hundred times. Mychel says my father must have been a goat."

and:

The girl made a face. “Torches just blind you. On a clear night like this, the moon and the stars are enough. Mychel says I have the eyes of the owl.” She mounted and urged her mule up the first step. Catelyn’s animal followed of its own accord.

and:

"Mychel's my love," Mya explained. "Mychel Redfort. He's squire to Ser Lyn Corbray. We're to wed as soon as he becomes a knight, next year or the year after."

before Cat's knowledge of Westeros nobility gives the reality of the situation:

She sounded so like Sansa, so happy and innocent with her dreams. Catelyn smiled, but the smile was tinged with sadness. The Redforts were an old name in the Vale, she knew, with the blood of the First Men in their veins. His love she might be, but no Redfort would ever wed a bastard. His family would arrange a more suitable match for him, to a Corbray or a Waynwood or a Royce, or perhaps a daughter of some greater house outside the Vale. If Mychel Redfort laid with this girl at all, it would be on the wrong side of the sheet. -AGOT, Catelyn VI

A Feast for Crows

Normally such an inconsequential detail wouldn't mean much to me. GRRM loves building a rich world and making characters such as Mya (one of Robert's numerous bastards) makes the story that much better. But then he brings these same details back up in AFFC, but not only is it confirmed that Mychel and Mya slept with each but also that Mychel is wed (and note the fact that Lothor Brune is into her):

"Don't be so certain, m'lady. She's half mule herself, that one. I think she'd leave us all to starve before she'd put those animals at risk." He smiled when he said it. He always smiles when he speaks of Mya Stone. Mya was much younger than Ser Lothor, but when her father had been brokering the marriage between Lord Corbray and his merchant's daughter, he'd told her that young girls were always happiest with older men. "Innocence and experience make for a perfect marriage," he had said.

Alayne wondered what Mya made of Ser Lothor. With his squashed nose, square jaw, and nap of woolly grey hair, Brune could not be called comely, but he was not ugly either. It is a common face but an honest one. Though he had risen to knighthood, Ser Lothor's birth had been very low. One night he had told her that he was kin to the Brunes of Brownhollow, an old knightly family from Crackclaw Point. "I went to them when my father died," he confessed, "but they shat on me, and said I was no blood of theirs." He would not speak of what happened after that, except to say that he had learned all he knew of arms the hard way. Sober, he was a quiet man, but a strong one. And Petyr says he's loyal. He trusts him as much as he trusts anyone. Brune would be a good match for a bastard girl like Mya Stone, she thought. It might be different if her father had acknowledged her, but he never did. And Maddy says that she's no maid either. -AFFC, Alayne II

and:

When Alayne returned to the winch room, she found Mya Stone waiting impatiently with Lothor Brune and Mord. She must have come up in the bucket to see what was taking us so long. Slim and sinewy, Mya looked as tough as the old riding leathers she wore beneath her silvery ringmail shirt. Her hair was black as a raven's wing, so short and shaggy that Alayne suspected that she cut it with a dagger. Mya's eyes were her best feature, big and blue. She could be pretty, if she would dress up like a girl. Alayne found herself wondering whether Ser Lothor liked her best in her iron and leather, or dreamed of her gowned in lace and silk. Mya liked to say that her father had been a goat and her mother an owl, but Alayne had gotten the true story from Maddy. Yes, she thought, looking at her now, those are his eyes, and she has his hair too, the thick black hair he shared with Renly. -AFFC, Alayne II

and:

Myranda edged her mule closer. "You know our Mya's not a maid, I trust?"

She did. Fat Maddy had whispered it to her, one time when Mya brought up their supplies. "Maddy told me."
"Of course she did. She has a mouth as big as her thighs, and her thighs are enormous. Mychel Redfort was the one. He used to be Lyn Corbray's squire. A real squire, not like that loutish lad Ser Lyn's got squiring for him now. He only took that one on for coin, they say. Mychel was the best young swordsman in the Vale, and gallant . . . or so poor Mya thought, till he wed one of Bronze Yohn's daughters. Lord Horton gave him no choice in the matter, I am sure, but it was still a cruel thing to do to Mya."

"Ser Lothor is fond of her." Alayne glanced down at the mule girl, twenty steps below. "More than fond."

"Lothor Brune?" Myranda raised an eyebrow. "Does she know?" She did not wait for an answer. "He has no hope, poor man. My father's tried to make a match for Mya, but she'll have none of them. She is half mule, that one."
Despite herself, Alayne found herself warming to the older girl. She had not had a friend to gossip with since poor Jeyne Poole. "Do you think Ser Lothor likes her as she is, in mail and leather?" she asked the older girl, who seemed so worldly-wise. "Or does he dream of her draped in silks and velvets?"-AFFC, Alayne II

If interested: "Gold and Boys and Killing": Ser Lyn Corbray in TWoW

and I always throw in this passage anytime I discuss Mya, because it is one of my favorite passages in the series as it is a memory that we both share in some ways:

"Almost, I said. I saw you. Weren't you afraid?"

Mya shook her head. "I remember a man throwing me in the air when I was very little. He stands as tall as the sky, and he throws me up so high it feels as though I'm flying. We're both laughing, laughing so much that I can hardly catch a breath, and finally I laugh so hard I wet myself, but that only makes him laugh the louder. I was never afraid when he was throwing me. I knew that he would always be there to catch me." She pushed her hair back. "Then one day he wasn't. Men come and go. They lie, or die, or leave you. A mountain is not a man, though, and a stone is a mountain's daughter. I trust my father, and I trust my mules. I won't fall." She put her hand on a jagged spur of rock, and got to her feet. "Best finish. We have a long way yet to go, and I can smell a storm." -AFFC, Alayne II

The Winds of Winter

Then as TWoW opens we are reintroduced to that exact same plotline:

She was reading her little lord a tale of the Winged Knight when Mya Stone came knocking on the door of his bedchamber, clad in boots and riding leathers and smelling strongly of the stable. Mya had straw in her hair and a scowl on her face. That scowl comes of having Mychel Redfort near, Alayne knew. -TWOW, Alayne I

and:

At the north end of the yard, three quintains had been set up, and some of the competitors were riding at them. Alayne knew them by their shields; the bells of Belmore, green vipers for the Lynderlys, the red sledge of Breakstone, House Tollett's black and grey pily. Ser Mychel Redfort set one quintain spinning with a perfectly placed blow. He was one of those favored to win wings. -TWOW, Alayne I

If interested: The Tourney of the Brotherhood of the Winged Knights

TLDR: GRRM has been building up the Mya Stone/Ser Mychel Redfort situation since the first book. I expect some sort of conclusion/culmination to happen to this minor plotline as its something that he has continued to remind readers about in AFFC/TWoW.

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So, I might be slow, but after watching Wolf Hall, I realized that Maegor the Cruel has to be heavily based on Henry VIII. GRRM’s story is already inspired by the Wars of the Roses, and Maegor, much like Henry, clashed with the Faith, took multiple wives despite religious restrictions, and went a bit bonkers after suffering a head injury.

This got me thinking—who else, both kings and other figures, might be inspired by European and English royalty?

I think I’ve seen somewhere that Rhaenyra might be partially inspired by Empress Matilda, while Aegon the Conqueror reminds me of William the Conqueror. Surely there are more examples!

I'm scanning this post and there's some interesting discussion but I haven't seen anyone supply a very important bit of meta history: In earlier drafts of AGOT Jon Arryn accompanied Ned to the Tower of Joy and found him after Lyanna died, NOT Howland Reed.

Several fans have visited the Cushing Library at Texas A&M University and noted this change. So originally Jon Snow was almost certainly named after Jon Arryn, who was undoubtedly aware of the true circumstances of his birth and unlikely to take offence in that case.

Of course in the published book Jon Arryn has no knowledge of R+L=J as far as we know so maybe he really was privately seething over Ned naming his bastard after him but seems GRRM would have noted this somewhere if it were the case. And besides, Jon (like in our world) is a common name.