The situation in the Middle East war is far more complex than the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but I’ll give it a shot and try to break it down.

Overall, I believe Israel is at a strategic disadvantage. Despite Israel's efforts to break out of this tough strategic position—like influencing U.S. elections, where it's been quite effective—it still hasn’t fundamentally solved its problem of being in a weaker overall position. That said, given the chaotic nature of the situation and the fact that each party involved has their own hidden agendas, I think Israel still has a couple of potential turning points where things could swing in its favor.

The first turning point could come if Iran experiences major internal turmoil. A likely trigger for this would be the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, which could lead to a power struggle over his successor. If the internal conflict lasts long and is intense enough, it’s possible that this round of the Middle East war could end with Israel achieving a strategic stalemate or even a slight advantage.

Now, some people imagine that Israel could speed this up by assassinating Khamenei, but I wouldn’t be so sure. In fact, that might actually make it harder for this turning point to happen. The assassination could rally Iran around the idea of consolidating power under the hardliners in response to such a provocation.

The second potential turning point for Israel is if Iran, under pressure from large-scale U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, makes a strategic mistake and launches a major attack on the oil facilities or other infrastructure of the Sunni Gulf monarchies.

For years, Iran has claimed it has the option to block the Strait of Hormuz. While that move wouldn’t be as severe as directly attacking the oil facilities of the Sunni monarchies, it would be a big step in that direction. So, if Iran escalates to that point, there’s a real possibility they could make a strategic blunder. If blocking the Strait doesn’t have the desired impact, or if Iran retaliates against the Sunni monarchies for allowing the U.S. and Israeli air forces to use their airspace by attacking their oil infrastructure, it could force China to reconsider its position. At that point, China might decide that the best strategy is to prioritize protecting the Sunni monarchies.

With pressure from various global powers, Iran could be forced to back down and suffer a significant blow. They might even be forced to abandon their attacks on the monarchies or lift the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. Afterward, China could step in to help Iran recover, but not before Iran has been dealt a major setback.

If China leans in that direction, even though it might eventually help Iran get back on its feet, the whole process would seriously damage Iran’s morale and its willingness to fight. If Israel plays its cards right and knows when to stop, it could declare victory—claiming it achieved success in the Middle East war with the support of international powers, including China—and call for a ceasefire. At that point, Iran would find itself in a very awkward diplomatic position.

So, those are the two turning points I can see where Israel might avoid losing this war. However, I suspect Israel is still betting heavily on what it sees as its main chance: Trump winning the U.S. presidency and ramping up American support. This is a mistake. Israel needs to realize that even if Trump comes back and increases aid, it still won’t be enough. And if the U.S. really goes all-in—like fully mobilizing to wage a war of annihilation against Iran—then China and Russia would almost certainly intervene, which means Israel and the U.S. would end up facing an even bigger defeat.

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After all these months, I’ve never thought we’d come to this moment. It’s been such a long journey and to finally see it materialize with justice for all….

This is actually a bait post. You fell for it. Harris will send you to jail. Remember, she’s a literal cop. Her as a president would literally be a police state and she’s sent a lot of minorities and undeserving people to jail over petite nonsense. Donald trump will do the exact same thing too. If you ever find yourself simping for Kamala Harris this 2024 season, remember, read the title of the community, it’s a US-EMPIRE, and she’s running for captain of the helm. She is the literal empire. She currently is Second in Command of the literal empire. There should be no sympathy for the second highest worst person causing our problems. The equivalent would be electing Goebbels to overtake Hitler because “idk, hes second in command, how bad can it be? At least he’s not Göring right?”

You clowns

You baffoons

You astroturfed

The irony is bestowed upon you for simping for the Us empire in a sub called “USEmpire”