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/r/ukpolitics

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0

The poor need the money, the rich may not – but I say hands off the state pension triple lock | Owen Jones

13 Comments
2024/03/27
11:01 UTC

0

Labour will not win the next election outright because it would require them to win 126 seats... Discussion.

I've always believed the conservatives in the UK are strong because if you're not left then all you have to vote for is conservative.

If you're left leaning then you have labour, lib dem and greens and the green party is growing every year.

I'm sure green party will gain seats at the next election and those seats will come from young left wing voters. Right wing voters will stay conservative regardless of anything.

I really do not believe Labour will win the 126 seats they need to form a majority government (326 seats needed they currently have 200).

Or in other words, I do not believe conservatives will lose 36.21% or 1/3 of their seats and even if they did, I do not think all those seats would go to labour.

So either way imo Labour will not win a majority they need way too many seats.

But a coalition labour with lib dem / green is much more realistic? But imo that is not a win for Labour that will really impact what they want to deliver and they will have to make concessions to greens / lib Dems which may even counter their policies.

What do you think, is it possible for labour to get all those seats or what would be a likely coalition?

Edit: people are actually saying Labour will gain 226 - 326 seats and will have 426-526 seats. I'm sorry but that is most ridiculous thing I've ever heard. You need to go back to 1935 to find a government that had more than 426 seats in parliament...

Blair did gain 146 seats in 1997 (total 418) but interestingly Tories lost 178, so 32 seats went to other parties, which is one of my points, Tories seats are not guaranteed to go to labour.

If Labour pull off a Blair and gain 146 seats that puts them on on 346, still impressive and gives the majority. But I do not think they have the Blair factor.

I think they are currently getting the we don't want Tories vote rather than the you've got the Blair factor! we really want labour! vote... Which means it really could go to other parties and further reduce the seats Labour will gain.

95 Comments
2024/03/27
10:21 UTC

41

Good Law Project's complaint against the IEA dismissed by Charity Commission

64 Comments
2024/03/27
07:58 UTC

0

Daily Megathread - 27/03/2024

👋 Welcome to /r/ukpolitics' daily megathreads, for light real-time discussion of the day's latest developments.


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406 Comments
2024/03/27
06:00 UTC

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