/r/TropicalWeather
The intent of this subreddit is to provide a centralized location to discuss tropical cyclone, including their climatology, their development, their movement, and their impacts to life, property, and the environment. The moderator staff strives to minimize excessive speculation and fearmongering and to distribute and emphasize lifesaving information from official sources.
Current discussions: Global Outlook Kirk Leslie Invest 92L
Current discussions
Global Outlook
Northern Atlantic
12L — Kirk
13L — Leslie
92L — Invest
Filter By Basin
Northern Atlantic
Eastern Pacific
Central Pacific
Western Pacific
Northern Indian
Southern Hemisphere
Clear filters
Important Threads and Links
Tropical Weather Discord
Tropical Weather Twitter
Hurricane Supplies Megathread
Tropical Weather Wiki
Twitter List of WX accounts
Comprehensive Tropical Cyclone Links List
Weather Multireddit
Subreddit Rules
Posts must be related to tropical cyclones.
Do not post duplicate tracking threads.
Do not post a new thread for every NHC/RSMC update.
Do not attack, troll, or threaten other users.
Do not post sexually explicit content or spam.
Do not post hard paywalled content.
Do not discuss politics, regardless of level.
Do not post no-/low-effort posts or memes.
Do not post intentionally misleading information.
Do not fear-monger.
Do not excessively speculate.
Do not post model data or ask for forecast advice beyond 5 days (120 hours) in the future.
Content from AccuWeather, Direct Weather, or Force Thirteen is prohibited.
Contact us to be verified as a meteorologist!
This subreddit is night mode compatible!
/r/TropicalWeather
146,118 Subscribers
National Hurricane Center afternoon video update for Tropical Storm Milton — Saturday, 5 October
18:06 UTC
Milton Preparations Discussion
Preparations Discussion
Introduction
A tropical depression formed over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday morning and quickly strengthened into Tropical Storm Milton by the afternoon.
The National Hurricane Center is projecting that Milton will continue to quickly strengthen as it moves east-northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. Milton is currently forecast to reach hurricane strength on Monday morning and be very close to major hurricane intensity when it makes landfall over western Florida on Wednesday.
Milton is expected to bring life-threatening and potentially devastating impacts to large portions of the state of Florida on Wednesday before crossing over into the Atlantic. These impacts include very heavy rainfall, destructive winds, and life-threatening storm surge.
START.
PREPARING.
NOW.
As always, the National Hurricane Center is the primary source of information regarding this system as it develops. Our meteorological discussion post can be found here. Be sure to visit the Tropical Weather Discord server for more real-time discussion!
Storm mode
Neither the subreddit nor the Discord server are currently in Storm Mode.
We normally activate Storm Mode in anticipation for a sharp increase in user activity as a threat to the coastal United States begins to emerge. During Storm Mode, our subreddit rules will be enforced more strictly. The more egregious rule violations may result in bans. Additionally, post submissions are will be restricted to moderators and approved users. We will accept requests to submit posts on a case-by-case basis only and only from users with our verified meteorologist flair or reputable users who have posted to the subreddit before.
Meteorologists assemble!
We have special user flair for degreed meteorologists, atmospheric scientists, and emergency management personnel! If you would like this flair to be applied to your username, please contact us!
Hurricane Supplies
Our hurricane supplies megathread can be found here or in the subreddit sidebar.
Government Resources
United States
How to Prepare for a Hurricane (PDF) — This guide from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is designed to help you properly prepare for a hurricane and know how to protect yourself during and after one.
18:00 UTC
Tropical Tidbits for Saturday, 5 October: Newly-Formed Tropical Storm Milton Expected to Hit Florida as a Hurricane
17:50 UTC
Milton (14L — Gulf of Mexico)
Latest observation
Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 12:00 PM Central Daylight Time (CDT; 17:00 UTC)
| NHC Advisory #1 | 12:00 PM CDT (17:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 22.3°N 95.3°W | |
| Relative location: | 221 mi (355 km) NNE of Heroica Veracruz, Mexico | |
| 892 mi (1,436 km) WSW of Tampa, Florida | ||
| Forward motion: | NNE (15°) at 3 knots (3 mph) | |
| Maximum winds: | ▲ | 40 mph (35 knots) |
| Intensity: | ▲ | Tropical Storm |
| Minimum pressure: | ▼ | 1006 millibars (29.71 inches) |
| # Official forecast | ||
| - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - | ||
| Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 7:00 AM CDT (12:00 UTC) |
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | UTC | CDT | Saffir-Simpson | knots | mph | °N | °W | ||
| 00 | 05 Oct | 12:00 | 7AM Sat | Tropical Depression | 30 | 35 | 22.1 | 95.1 | |
| 12 | 06 Oct | 00:00 | 7PM Sat | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 35 | 40 | 22.5 | 94.9 |
| 24 | 06 Oct | 12:00 | 7AM Sun | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 45 | 50 | 22.9 | 94.2 |
| 36 | 07 Oct | 00:00 | 7PM Sun | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 55 | 65 | 22.8 | 93.0 |
| 48 | 07 Oct | 12:00 | 7AM Mon | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▲ | 70 | 80 | 22.9 | 91.6 |
| 60 | 08 Oct | 00:00 | 7PM Mon | Hurricane (Category 2) | ▲ | 85 | 100 | 23.4 | 89.8 |
| 72 | 08 Oct | 12:00 | 7AM Tue | Hurricane (Category 2) | ▲ | 95 | 110 | 24.3 | 87.6 |
| 96 | 09 Oct | 12:00 | 7AM Wed | Hurricane (Category 2) ^1 | 95 | 110 | 27.0 | 83.4 | |
| 120 | 10 Oct | 12:00 | 7AM Thu | Hurricane (Category 1) ^2 | ▼ | 65 | 75 | 29.9 | 78.3 |
^NOTES:
^1 ^- ^last ^forecast ^point ^before ^landfall
^2 ^- ^first ^forecast ^point ^after ^landfall
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Text products
Productos de texto (en español)
Graphical products
- Forecast graphic
- Experimental new forecast graphic (with inland advisories)
- Interactive forecast graphic
- Wind speed probabilities
- Arrival time of winds
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)
National Hurricane Center (United States)
Weather Forecast Offices
Forecast discussions
National Hurricane Center (United States)
Weather Forecast Offices
Forecast discussions
Aircraft reconnaissance
National Hurricane Center
Radar imagery
Radar mosaics
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)
College of DuPage
National Weather Service
College of DuPage
Satellite imagery
Storm-specific imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
- Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
- CIMSS: Multiple bands
- RAMMB: Multiple bands
- Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Regional imagery
NOAA GOES Image Viewer
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)
Tropical Tidbits
Weather Nerds
Analysis graphics and data
Wind analyses
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History
- NESDIS: Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis
- CIMSS: Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
- CIMSS: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus (SATCON)
- CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface Temperatures
- NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
- Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model guidance
Storm-specific guidance
- Tropical Tidbits
- State University of New York at Albany
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
- Weather Nerds
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
17:29 UTC
14L (Gulf of Mexico)
Latest observation
Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 10:00 AM Central Daylight Time (CDT; 15:00 UTC)
| NHC Advisory #1 | 10:00 AM CDT (15:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 22.1°N 95.1°W | |
| Relative location: | 211 mi (339 km) NNE of Heroica Veracruz, Mexico | |
| 888 mi (1,429 km) WSW of Tampa, Florida | ||
| Forward motion: | NNE (25°) at 3 knots (3 mph) | |
| Maximum winds: | 35 mph (30 knots) | |
| Intensity: | ▲ | Tropical Depression |
| Minimum pressure: | 1007 millibars (29.74 inches) |
Official forecast
Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 7:00 AM CDT (12:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | UTC | CDT | Saffir-Simpson | knots | mph | °N | °W | ||
| 00 | 05 Oct | 12:00 | 7AM Sat | Tropical Depression | 30 | 35 | 22.1 | 95.1 | |
| 12 | 06 Oct | 00:00 | 7PM Sat | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 35 | 40 | 22.5 | 94.9 |
| 24 | 06 Oct | 12:00 | 7AM Sun | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 45 | 50 | 22.9 | 94.2 |
| 36 | 07 Oct | 00:00 | 7PM Sun | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 55 | 65 | 22.8 | 93.0 |
| 48 | 07 Oct | 12:00 | 7AM Mon | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▲ | 70 | 80 | 22.9 | 91.6 |
| 60 | 08 Oct | 00:00 | 7PM Mon | Hurricane (Category 2) | ▲ | 85 | 100 | 23.4 | 89.8 |
| 72 | 08 Oct | 12:00 | 7AM Tue | Hurricane (Category 2) | ▲ | 95 | 110 | 24.3 | 87.6 |
| 96 | 09 Oct | 12:00 | 7AM Wed | Hurricane (Category 2) | 95 | 110 | 27.0 | 83.4 | |
| 120 | 10 Oct | 12:00 | 7AM Thu | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▼ | 65 | 75 | 29.9 | 78.3 |
^NOTES:
^i ^- ^inland
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Text products
Productos de texto (en español)
Graphical products
- Forecast graphic
- Experimental new forecast graphic (with inland advisories)
- Interactive forecast graphic
- Wind speed probabilities
- Arrival time of winds
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)
National Hurricane Center (United States)
Weather Forecast Offices
Forecast discussions
National Hurricane Center (United States)
Weather Forecast Offices
Forecast discussions
Aircraft reconnaissance
National Hurricane Center
Radar imagery
Radar mosaics
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)
College of DuPage
National Weather Service
College of DuPage
Satellite imagery
Storm-specific imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
- Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
- CIMSS: Multiple bands
- RAMMB: Multiple bands
- Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Regional imagery
NOAA GOES Image Viewer
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)
Tropical Tidbits
Weather Nerds
Analysis graphics and data
Wind analyses
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History
- NESDIS: Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis
- CIMSS: Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
- CIMSS: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus (SATCON)
- CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface Temperatures
- NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
- Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model guidance
Storm-specific guidance
- Tropical Tidbits
- State University of New York at Albany
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
- Weather Nerds
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
15:04 UTC
92L (Invest — Gulf of Mexico)
Latest Observation
Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 2:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 06:00 UTC)
| ATCF | 2:00 AM EDT (06:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 21.1°N 95.2°W | |
| Relative location: | 582 km (362 mi) W of Merida, Yucatán (Mexico) | |
| 1,496 km (930 mi) SW of Tampa, Florida (United States) | ||
| Forward motion: | N (0°) at 2 km/h (1 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | 55 km/h (30 knots) | |
| Minimum pressure: | 1009 millibars (29.80 inches) | |
| 2-day potential: (through 8AM Mon) | ▲ | high (70 percent) |
| 7-day potential: (through 8AM Fri) | ▲ | high (90 percent) |
Outlook discussion
Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 8:00 AM EDT (12:00 UTC)
Discussion by: Larry Kelly — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are gradually becoming better organized. Development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form later today or on Sunday while it moves slowly eastward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. By early next week, the system is forecast to move faster eastward or northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico where additional strengthening is likely. Interests on the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week.
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Text products
Graphical products
Surface analyses
Outlook graphics
Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 7:22 AM EDT (11:22 UTC)
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)
National Hurricane Center (United States)
Weather Forecast Offices
Forecast discussions
Radar imagery
Radar mosaics
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)
College of DuPage
National Weather Service
College of DuPage
Satellite imagery
Storm-specific imagery
Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
CIMSS: Multiple bands
RAMMB: Multiple bands
Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Regional imagery
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)
Tropical Tidbits
Analysis graphics and data
Wind analyses
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface Temperatures
NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model guidance
Storm-specific guidance
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
01:41 UTC
The NHC is monitoring the eastern tropical Atlantic for potential tropical cyclone development
Eastern Tropical Atlantic Outlook
Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 8:00 AM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 12:00 UTC)
Discussion by Larry Kelly — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Monday or Tuesday. Some development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. The system is expected to move near or over the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, and interests there should monitor its progress.
Development potential
Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 8:00 AM AST (12:00 UTC)
| Time frame | Potential | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-day potential: (by 8AM Mon) | low (near 0 percent) | |
| 7-day potential: (by 8AM Fri) | ▲ | low (30 percent) |
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Text products
Graphical products
Surface analyses
Outlook graphics
Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 7:22 AM EDT (11:22 UTC)
Radar imagery
Unavailable
Radar imagery is not available for this system.
Satellite imagery
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)
Tropical Tidbits
Forecast models
Dynamical models
Ensemble models
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
Tropical Cyclogenesis Products
- Florida State University: Experimental tropical cyclone genesis graphics
21:00 UTC
Timelapse of Helene Storm Surge at my house in St. Petersburg, Florida
16:30 UTC
The NHC is monitoring the Gulf of Mexico for potential tropical cyclone development
Gulf of Mexico
Last updated: Friday, 4 October — 2:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 06:00 UTC)
Discussion by Dr. Jack Beven — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit
A trough of low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop from this system over the southwestern or south-central Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two, and additional subsequent development is possible while the low moves slowly eastward or northeastward. A tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form during the early to middle part of next week if the low remains separate from a frontal boundary that is forecast to extend across the Gulf of Mexico next week. Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the Florida Peninsula late this weekend into next week.
Development potential
Last updated: Friday, 4 October — 2:00 PM AST (18:00 UTC)
| Time frame | Potential | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-day potential: (by 2PM Sun) | low (near 0 percent) | |
| 7-day potential: (by 2PM Thu) | ▲ | low (540 percent) |
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Text products
Graphical products
Surface analyses
Outlook graphics
Last updated: Friday, 4 October — 4:45 PM EDT (20:45 UTC)
Aircraft reconnaissance
National Hurricane Center
Radar imagery
Unavailable
Radar imagery is not available for this system.
Satellite imagery
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)
Tropical Tidbits
Forecast models
Dynamical models
Ensemble models
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
Tropical Cyclogenesis Products
- Florida State University: Experimental tropical cyclone genesis graphics
04:22 UTC
Major Hurricane Kirk with a robust eye during the day
20:09 UTC
How far inland can a category 5 with 200+MPH winds last if it hit the gulf coast?
Also, is it possible that TN could see hurricane force winds?? Could theoretically TN see a category 2 even if the forward speed is fast and it hit as a 200MPH storm somewhere in the gulf coast?
18:20 UTC
Hurricane Helene’s Death Toll In North Carolina Surpasses 100
Per WXFatalities‘ latest post, Helene’s death toll has reached 193, with over 100 now in North Carolina.
14:49 UTC
Leslie (13L — Eastern Tropical Atlantic)
Latest observation
Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 5:00 AM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 09:00 UTC)
| NHC Advisory #12 | 5:00 AM AST (09:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 10.7°N 34.8°W | |
| Relative location: | 3,894 km (2,420 mi) SE of Saint George's, Bermuda | |
| Forward motion: | WNW (290°) at 11 km/h (6 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | ▲ | 130 km/h (70 knots) |
| Intensity: | Hurricane (Category 1) | |
| Minimum pressure: | ▼ | 985 millibars (29.09 inches) |
Official forecast
Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 2:00 AM AST (06:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | UTC | AST | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °W | ||
| 00 | 05 Oct | 06:00 | 2AM Sat | Hurricane (Category 1) | 70 | 130 | 10.7 | 34.8 | |
| 12 | 05 Oct | 18:00 | 2PM Sat | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▲ | 75 | 140 | 11.2 | 35.7 |
| 24 | 06 Oct | 06:00 | 2AM Sun | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▲ | 80 | 150 | 12.1 | 36.8 |
| 36 | 06 Oct | 18:00 | 2PM Sun | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▼ | 75 | 140 | 13.2 | 38.1 |
| 48 | 07 Oct | 06:00 | 2AM Mon | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▼ | 70 | 130 | 14.6 | 39.6 |
| 60 | 07 Oct | 18:00 | 2PM Mon | Hurricane (Category 1) | 70 | 130 | 15.9 | 41.3 | |
| 72 | 08 Oct | 06:00 | 2AM Tue | Hurricane (Category 1) | 70 | 130 | 17.4 | 43.1 | |
| 96 | 09 Oct | 06:00 | 2AM Wed | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▼ | 65 | 120 | 20.2 | 46.7 |
| 120 | 10 Oct | 06:00 | 2AM Thu | Hurricane (Category 1) | 65 | 120 | 22.3 | 49.5 |
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Text products
Productos de texto (en español)
Graphical products
- Forecast graphic
- Experimental new forecast graphic (with inland advisories)
- Interactive forecast graphic
- Wind speed probabilities
- Arrival time of winds
Aircraft reconnaissance
National Hurricane Center
Radar imagery
Not available
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Storm-specific imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
- Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
- CIMSS: Multiple bands
- RAMMB: Multiple bands
- Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Regional imagery
NOAA GOES Image Viewer
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)
Tropical Tidbits
Weather Nerds
Analysis graphics and data
Wind analyses
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History
- NESDIS: Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis
- CIMSS: Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
- CIMSS: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus (SATCON)
- CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface Temperatures
- NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
- Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model guidance
Storm-specific guidance
- Tropical Tidbits
- State University of New York at Albany
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
- Weather Nerds
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
- Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
- Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
02:39 UTC
Kirk (12L — Central Tropical Atlantic)
Latest observation
Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 5:00 AM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 09:00 UTC)
| NHC Advisory #24 | 5:00 AM AST (09:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 26.2°N 50.2°W | |
| Relative location: | 2,299 km (1,429 mi) SW of Ilha das Flores, Azores (Portugal) | |
| Forward motion: | NNW (340°) at 20 km/h (11 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | ▼ | 205 km/h (110 knots) |
| Intensity: | ▼ | Major Hurricane (Category 3) |
| Minimum pressure: | ▲ | 945 millibars (27.91 inches) |
Official forecast
Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 2:00 AM AST (06:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | UTC | AST | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °W | ||
| 00 | 05 Oct | 06:00 | 2AM Sat | Major Hurricane (Category 3) | 110 | 205 | 26.2 | 50.2 | |
| 12 | 05 Oct | 18:00 | 2PM Sat | Major Hurricane (Category 3) | ▼ | 105 | 195 | 28.4 | 50.2 |
| 24 | 06 Oct | 06:00 | 2AM Sun | Major Hurricane (Category 3) | ▼ | 100 | 185 | 31.9 | 49.2 |
| 36 | 06 Oct | 18:00 | 2PM Sun | Hurricane (Category 2) | ▼ | 85 | 155 | 35.7 | 46.8 |
| 48 | 07 Oct | 06:00 | 2AM Mon | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▼ | 75 | 140 | 39.2 | 42.6 |
| 60 | 07 Oct | 18:00 | 2PM Mon | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▼ | 70 | 130 | 42.0 | 36.6 |
| 72 | 08 Oct | 06:00 | 2AM Tue | Extratropical Cyclone | ▼ | 60 | 110 | 43.4 | 28.8 |
| 96 | 09 Oct | 06:00 | 2AM Wed | Extratropical Cyclone | ▼ | 50 | 95 | 45.5 | 10.5 |
| 120 | 10 Oct | 06:00 | 2AM Thu | Extratropical Cyclone | ▼ | 40 | 75 | 52.0 | 4.5 (°E) |
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Text products
Productos de texto (en español)
Graphical products
- Forecast graphic
- Experimental new forecast graphic (with inland advisories)
- Interactive forecast graphic
- Wind speed probabilities
- Arrival time of winds
Aircraft reconnaissance
National Hurricane Center
Radar imagery
Not available
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Storm-specific imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
- Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
- CIMSS: Multiple bands
- RAMMB: Multiple bands
- Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Regional imagery
NOAA GOES Image Viewer
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)
Tropical Tidbits
Weather Nerds
Analysis graphics and data
Wind analyses
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History
- NESDIS: Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis
- CIMSS: Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
- CIMSS: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus (SATCON)
- CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface Temperatures
- NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
- Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model guidance
Storm-specific guidance
- Tropical Tidbits
- State University of New York at Albany
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
- Weather Nerds
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
- Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
- Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
20:01 UTC
13L (Eastern Tropical Atlantic)
Latest observation
Last updated: Wednesday, 2 October — 2:00 PM Cape Verde Time (CVT; 15:00 UTC)
| NHC Advisory #1 | 2:00 PM CVT (15:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 10.6°N 29.1°W | |
| Relative location: | 828 km (514 mi) SSW of Mindelo, São Vicente (Cabo Verde) | |
| Forward motion: | W (270°) at 11 km/h (6 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | 55 km/h (30 knots) | |
| Intensity: | ▲ | Tropical Depression |
| Minimum pressure: | 1006 millibars (29.71 inches) |
Official forecast
Last updated: Wednesday, 2 October — 11:00 AM CVT (12:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | UTC | CVT | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °W | ||
| 00 | 02 Oct | 12:00 | 11AM Wed | Tropical Depression | 30 | 55 | 10.6 | 29.1 | |
| 12 | 03 Oct | 00:00 | 11PM Wed | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 35 | 65 | 10.5 | 29.8 |
| 24 | 03 Oct | 12:00 | 11AM Thu | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 40 | 75 | 10.2 | 30.8 |
| 36 | 04 Oct | 00:00 | 11PM Thu | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 45 | 85 | 10.2 | 31.9 |
| 48 | 04 Oct | 12:00 | 11AM Fri | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 55 | 100 | 10.4 | 33.3 |
| 60 | 05 Oct | 00:00 | 11PM Fri | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 60 | 110 | 11.0 | 34.6 |
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Text products
Productos de texto (en español)
Graphical products
- Forecast graphic
- Experimental new forecast graphic (with inland advisories)
- Interactive forecast graphic
- Wind speed probabilities
- Arrival time of winds
Aircraft reconnaissance
National Hurricane Center
Radar imagery
Not available
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Storm-specific imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
- Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
- CIMSS: Multiple bands
- RAMMB: Multiple bands
- Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Regional imagery
NOAA GOES Image Viewer
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)
Tropical Tidbits
Weather Nerds
Analysis graphics and data
Wind analyses
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History
- NESDIS: Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis
- CIMSS: Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
- CIMSS: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus (SATCON)
- CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface Temperatures
- NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
- Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model guidance
Storm-specific guidance
- Tropical Tidbits
- State University of New York at Albany
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
- Weather Nerds
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
- Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
- Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
17:23 UTC
The path from Helene can be seen from space with all of the power outages the day after it ripped through the Southeast.
14:19 UTC
Ancha (01S — Southern Indian Ocean)
Latest observation
Last updated: Friday, 4 October — 12:00 AM Indian Ocean Time (IOT; 18:00 UTC)
| JTWC Warning #7 | 12:00 AM IOT (18:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 13.2°S 70.0°E | |
| Relative location: | 1,004 km (624 mi) NE of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues (Mauritius) | |
| Forward motion: | WSW (250°) at 20 km/h (11 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | ▼ | 55 km/h (30 knots) |
| Intensity (SSHWS): | ▼ | Remnant Low |
| Intensity (MFR): | ▼ | Remnant Low |
| Minimum pressure: | ▲ | 1001 millibars (29.56 inches) |
Official forecasts
Meteo France
Last updated: Friday, 4 October — 12:00 AM IOT (18:00 UTC)
Meteo France has issued its final advisory for this system.
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | UTC | IOT | MFR | knots | km/h | °S | °E | ||
| 00 | 03 Oct | 18:00 | 12AM Fri | Remnant Low | 30 | 55 | 13.2 | 69.7 | |
| 12 | 03 Oct | 06:00 | 12PM Fri | Remnant Low | ▼ | 30 | 55 | 14.5 | 68.0 |
| 24 | 04 Oct | 18:00 | 12AM Sat | Remnant Low | ▼ | 25 | 45 | 15.5 | 66.8 |
| 36 | 04 Oct | 06:00 | 12PM Sat | Remnant Low | 25 | 45 | 16.1 | 65.7 | |
| 48 | 05 Oct | 18:00 | 12AM Sun | Remnant Low | ▼ | 20 | 35 | 16.3 | 64.7 |
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Last updated: Friday, 4 October — 12:00 AM IOT (18:00 UTC)
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued its final advisory for this system.
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | UTC | IOT | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °S | °E | ||
| 00 | 03 Oct | 18:00 | 12AM Fri | Remnant Low | 30 | 55 | 13.2 | 70.0 | |
| 12 | 03 Oct | 06:00 | 12PM Fri | Remnant Low | ▼ | 25 | 45 | 14.2 | 68.5 |
Official information
Meteo France (RSMC Reunion)
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
Radar imagery
Not available
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
Single bandwidth imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / shortwave infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared (Dvorak enhancement)
- Tropical Tidbits: Water vapor
Multiple bandwidth imagery
The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.
Regional imagery
- CIMSS: Enhanced Infrared
- CIMSS: Water vapor
- CIMSS: Visible
Analysis products
Best track data
Wind analysis and storm intensity estimation products
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History
- NESDIS: Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis
- CIMSS: Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
- CIMSS: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus (SATCON)
- CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History**
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data**
Sea-surface temperature analysis products
- NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
- Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model products
Storm-specific model guidance
Storm-centered guidance
Track guidance
Track and intensity guidance
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
Weathernerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weathernerds: ECENS (120 hours)
10:57 UTC
97E (Invest — South of Mexico)
Latest Observation
Last updated: Wednesday, 2 October — 6:00 AM Central Standard Time (CST; 12:00 UTC)
| ATCF | 6:00 AM CST (12:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 13.0°N 96.5°W | |
| Relative location: | 380 km (236 mi) S of Salina Cruz, Oaxaca (Mexico) | |
| Forward motion: | ▲ | E (100°) at 20 km/h (11 knots) |
| Maximum winds: | 45 km/h (25 knots) | |
| Minimum pressure: | 1007 millibars (29.74 inches) | |
| 2-day potential: (through 12PM Fri) | ▼ | low (near 0 percent) |
| 7-day potential: (through 12PM Tue) | ▼ | low (near 0 percent) |
Outlook discussion
Last updated: Wednesday, 2 October — 12:00 PM CST (18:00 UTC)
Discussion by: Dr. Philippe Papin (NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit) and Ana Torres-Vazquez (NWS Miami meteorologist)
Recent satellite imagery suggests that the area of low pressure that was located a few hundred miles south of the coast of southeastern Mexico is being absorbed by Tropical Depression Eleven-E, and is no longer expected to become a tropical cyclone. Regardless, shower and thunderstorm activity that was associated with this system is expected to add to heavy rainfall across portions of the southern coast of Mexico that were already adversely affected by substantial rainfall last week. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Tropical Depression Eleven-E as highlighted in advisory data and Key Messages being issued on the system.
Official information
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Text products
Graphical products
Surface analyses
Outlook graphics
Last updated: Wednesday, 2 October — 11:40 AM CST (17:40 UTC)
Radar imagery
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)
Satellite imagery
Disturbance-specific imagery
Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
CIMSS: Multiple bands
RAMMB: Multiple bands
Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Regional imagery
NOAA GOES Image Viewer
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)
Tropical Tidbits
Weather Nerds
Forecast models
Disturbance-specific guidance
Ensembles
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
Dynamical
Tropical Cyclogenesis Products
- Florida State University: Experimental tropical cyclone genesis guidance
22:55 UTC