/r/TropicalWeather
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Current discussions: Global Outlook Trami Dana Kristy
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92E (Invest — Eastern Pacific)
Latest Observation
Last updated: Thursday, 31 October — 2:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (HST; 00:00 UTC)
| ATCF | 2:00 PM HST (00:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 11.4°N 126.3°W | |
| Relative location: | 2,107 km (1,309 mi) SW of Puerto San Carlos, Baja California Sur (Mexico) | |
| 3,214 km (1,997 mi) E of Hilo, Hawaii (United States) | ||
| Forward motion: | ▲ | WNW (305°) at 17 km/h (9 knots) |
| Maximum winds: | 45 km/h (25 knots) | |
| Minimum pressure: | ▼ | 1008 millibars (29.77 inches) |
| 2-day potential: (through 2PM Sat) | ▲ | medium (40 percent) |
| 7-day potential: (through 2PM Wed) | ▲ | medium (40 percent) |
Outlook discussion
Last updated: Thursday, 31 October — 2:00 PM HST (00:00 UTC)
Satellite-derived winds indicate that the area of low pressure located a little over 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become better defined this afternoon. However, shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Some further development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while the low moves slowly to the west-northwest. By late this weekend, environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive to development.
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Last updated: Thursday, 31 October — 1:44 PM HST (23:44 UTC)
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Not available
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- Florida State University: Experimental tropical cyclone genesis guidance
03:20 UTC
The NHC is monitoring a non-tropical low over the northeastern Atlantic for potential subtropical or tropical transition
Latest outlook
Last updated: Friday, 1 November — 11:00 AM Azores Time (AZOT; 12:00 UTC)
Discussion by Larry Kelly — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit
A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area located about 400 miles west of the western Azores is producing limited shower activity. Some subtropical development is possible while the low moves generally eastward during the next few days. Additional information on this system is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
Development potential
| Time frame | Potential | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-day potential: (by 11AM Sun) | ▼ | low (10 percent) |
| 7-day potential: (by 11AM Thu) | ▼ | low (10 percent) |
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Last updated: Friday, 1 November — 10:37 AM AZOT (11:37 UTC)
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Not available
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Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
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- Florida State University: Experimental tropical cyclone genesis graphics
18:14 UTC
The NHC is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development over the Greater Antilles
Latest outlook
Last updated: Friday, 1 November — 8:00 AM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 12:00 UTC)
Discussion by Dave Roberts — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit
A trough of low pressure located near Puerto Rico is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Greater Antilles and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic and the northeastern Caribbean. Slow development of this system is possible during the next few days as it moves west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles.
After that time, this system is expected to be absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next several days from the northern Leeward Islands westward across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas.
Development potential
| Time frame | Potential | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-day potential: (by 8AM Sun) | low (10 percent) | |
| 7-day potential: (by 8AM Thu) | low (10 percent) |
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Last updated: Wednesday, 1 November — 7:37 AM AST (11:37 UTC)
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- Florida State University: Experimental tropical cyclone genesis graphics
18:09 UTC
Kong-rey's eye
Of all the cyclone pictures i've ever seen this is probably one of the most bizzare and somewhat creepy eyes i've ever seen
23:11 UTC
Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 28 October - 3 November
Current discussions
Last updated: Tuesday, 29 October — 07:20 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC)
Northern Atlantic
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Areas of interest without current discussions
As of Tuesday morning, there should be a discussion for every active cyclone and disturbance.
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- Southeastern Indian
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07:24 UTC
Explain like I’m five - storm chasers in the eyes of hurricanes vs. the rest of us
Hello! This is possibly a stupid explain like I’m five. I stayed for Milton approx. 30 miles inland from the coast and went through the eye walls. The damage in our area was significant but not devastating - loss of power for multiple days, significant tree loss and damage, medium home and roof damage.
How are storm chasers able to ride out hurricanes going through the eye walls and come out fairly unscathed in their cars? I have a hard time wrapping my head around them staying relatively safe in a car vs. the rest of us hunkering down in our homes and sustaining damage. Depending on the strength of a tornado, I know that’s the worst place to be during a tornado. What’s the difference between tornado winds vs hurricane eye wall winds that keeps them safe (relatively speaking).
Again…probably stupid but if someone could break it down for me I’d appreciate it!
19:18 UTC
91E (Invest — Eastern Pacific)
Latest Observation
Last updated: Monday, 28 October — 8:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (HST; 06:00 UTC)
| ATCF | 8:00 PM HST (06:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 11.2°N 129.5°W | |
| Relative location: | 2,373 km (1,475 mi) SW of Puerto San Carlos, Baja California Sur (Mexico) | |
| 2,897 km (1,800 mi) E of Hilo, Hawaii (United States) | ||
| Forward motion: | W (280°) at 28 km/h (15 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | 45 km/h (25 knots) | |
| Minimum pressure: | 1007 millibars (29.74 inches) | |
| 2-day potential: (through 8PM Wed) | low (20 percent) | |
| 7-day potential: (through 8PM Sun) | ▼ | medium (40 percent) |
Outlook discussion
Last updated: Monday, 28 October — 8:00 PM HST (06:00 UTC)
Discussion by: Dr. Richard Pasch — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit
A broad area of low pressure located about 1500 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized shower activity. Although there has been little change in this system over the past day or so, a tropical depression could still form in a few days while the system moves generally westward at about 15 mph. This system is expected to cross into the Central Pacific Basin by the end of the week.
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Last updated: Monday, 28 October — 7:03 PM HST (05:03 UTC)
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11:56 UTC
The NHC is monitoring the southwestern Caribbean Sea for potential tropical cyclone development
Latest outlook
Last updated: Friday, 1 November — 6:00 AM Central Standard Time (CST; 12:00 UTC)
Discussion by Larry Kelly — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system drifts generally northward or northwestward over the central or western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean.
Development potential
| Time frame | Potential | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-day potential: (by 6AM Sun) | low (30 percent) | |
| 7-day potential: (by 6AM Thu) | ▲ | high (70 percent) |
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Last updated: Friday, 1 November — 5:37 AM CST (11:37 UTC)
Aircraft reconnaissance
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Unavailable
Radar imagery is not available for this system.
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- Florida State University: Experimental tropical cyclone genesis graphics
02:53 UTC
Kong-rey (23W — Philippine Sea)
Latest observation
Last updated: Friday, 1 November — 8:00 AM China Standard Time (CST; 00:00 UTC)
| JTWC Warning #29 | 8:00 AM CST (00:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 26.7°N 120.6°E | |
| Relative location: | 69 km (43 mi) SE of Fuding, Fujian Province (China) | |
| 108 km ( mi) E of Ningde, Fujian Province (China) | ||
| Forward motion: | ▲ | N (15°) at 30 km/h (16 knots) |
| Maximum winds: | ▼ | 100 km/h (55 knots) |
| Intensity (SSHWS): | Tropical Storm | |
| Intensity (JMA): | ▼ | Tropical Storm [see note] |
| Minimum pressure: | ▲ | 983 millibars (29.03 inches) |
^NOTE ^- ^Based ^on ^the ^Japan ^Meteorological ^Agency's ^ten-minute ^maximum ^sustained ^wind ^estimate ^of ^75 ^kilometers ^per ^hour ^(40 ^knots).
Official forecasts
Japan Meteorological Agency
Last updated: Friday, 01 November — 8:00 AM CST (00:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | UTC | CST | JMA | knots | km/h | °N | °E | ||
| 00 | 01 Nov | 00:00 | 8AM Fri | Tropical Storm | 40 | 75 | 26.4 | 120.4 | |
| 12 | 01 Nov | 12:00 | 8PM Fri | Extratropical Cyclone | 40 | 75 | 30.3 | 122.9 | |
| 24 | 02 Nov | 00:00 | 8AM Sat | Extratropical Cyclone | 40 | 75 | 31.5 | 127.9 |
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Last updated: Friday, 01 November — 11:00 AM CST (03:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | UTC | CST | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °E | ||
| 00 | 01 Nov | 00:00 | 8AM Fri | Tropical Storm | 55 | 100 | 26.7 | 120.6 | |
| 12 | 01 Nov | 12:00 | 8PM Fri | Tropical Storm | ▼ | 50 | 95 | 29.3 | 123.1 |
| 24 | 02 Nov | 00:00 | 8AM Sat | Tropical Storm | ▼ | 40 | 75 | 32.1 | 128.1 |
| 36 | 02 Nov | 12:00 | 8PM Sat | Extratropical Cyclone | ▼ | 35 | 65 | 34.1 | 136.3 |
| 48 | 03 Nov | 00:00 | 8AM Sun | Extratropical Cyclone | 35 | 65 | 35.1 | 144.6 |
Official information
Japan Meteorological Agency
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration
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02:41 UTC
This piece of sheet metal impaled through a tree
This trailer park near my house in Terra Ceia was torn up badly. This piece of metal is id guess 40ft or more up this Cedar, stuck through by a branch. It put me in mind of the "Fence Post Through a Tree" photograph from the early 20th century
15:20 UTC
Have any of yall been through any hurricanes and so what ones
For me I live in Pittsburgh so we don’t get anything bad 99% of the time except for remnants but some that I have experienced or remembered were, Irene, Sandy, Florence, and Ida (mind you none of these were bad but caused some flash flooding from the rain but have yall experienced any?
04:14 UTC
Trami (22W — South China Sea)
Latest Observation
Last updated: Tuesday, 29 October — 1:00 PM Indochina Time (ICT; 06:00 UTC)
| ATCF | 1:00 PM ICT (06:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 16.6°N 109.3°E | |
| Relative location: | 133 km (82 mi) ENE of Da Nang, Vietnam | |
| Forward motion: | ENE (70°) at 6 km/h (3 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | ▼ | 30 km/h (15 knots) |
| Minimum pressure: | 1003 millibars (29.62 inches) |
Official forecasts
Japan Meteorological Agency
The JMA discontinued issuing advisory products for this system at 7:00 AM ICT (00:00 UTC) on Monday.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
The JTWC discontinued issuing advisory products for this system at 4:00 AM ICT (21:00 UTC) on Tuesday.
Official information
Japan Meteorological Agency
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
Trung tâm Dự báo Khí tượng Thủy văn Quốc gia (National Center for Hydrometeorological Forecasting) (Vietnam)
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01:09 UTC
Category 5 Hurricane Kristy, 24 October 2024
23:32 UTC
Mike’s Weather Page
For a long time, I’ve followed Mike’s Weather Page for his hurricane opinions. But, lately he’s seems to get caught up in opinions about him and negative comments. Things that probably shouldn’t matter when following the weather. What’s your guys thoughts on Mike?
13:30 UTC
Kristy (12E — Eastern Pacific)
Latest Observation
Last updated: Sunday, 27 October — 2:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (HST; 00:00 UTC)
| ATCF | 2:00 PM HST (00:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 22.3°N 130.2°W | |
| Relative location: | 2,596 km (1,613 mi) E of Hilo, Hawaii | |
| Forward motion: | ▲ | SW (245°) at 9 km/h (5 knots) |
| Maximum winds: | 65 km/h (35 knots) | |
| Minimum pressure: | ▲ | 1007 millibars (29.74 inches) |
Outlook discussion
Last updated: Sunday, 27 October — 5:00 AM HST (15:00 UTC)
Discussion by: John Cangialosi — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit
Very strong southwesterly vertical wind shear, dry air entrainment, and cool waters have taken a toll on Kristy. The storm has lacked organized deep convection since about 03Z, and it has generally consisted of a low-level cloud swirl since that time. Therefore, Kristy no longer meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and this is the last advisory on this system. The initial wind speed is lowered to 40 kt, assuming some decrease in winds from the ASCAT pass overnight that showed maximum winds close to 50 kt.
The gale-force low is still moving north-northwestward at about 7 kt, but it is expected to turn to the west and west-southwest later today and Monday when it moves in the low-level flow. The post-tropical cyclone is also expected to continue to weaken and dissipate completely on Monday.
This is the last NHC advisory on Kristy. For more details on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. This information can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
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Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)
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NOTE: There are no active radars in the area of Mexico where this system is active.
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02:39 UTC
Dana (03B — Bay of Bengal)
Latest Observation
Last updated: Friday, 25 October — 11:30 PM India Standard Time (IST; 18:00 UTC)
| ATCF | 11:30 PM IST (18:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 21.2°N 86.2°E | |
| Relative location: | 1,100 km (684 mi) NNE of Chennai, Tamil Nadu (India) | |
| Forward motion: | W (270°) at 4 km/h (2 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | ▼ | 55 km/h (30 knots) |
| Intensity (SSHWS): | ▼ | Remnant Low |
| Intensity (IMD): | ▼ | Remnant Low |
| Minimum pressure: | ▲ | 1000 millibars (29.53 inches) |
Official forecast
India Meteorological Department
NOTE: The IMD has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
NOTE: The JTWC has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.
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India Meteorological Department
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14:42 UTC
Trami (22W — Philippine Sea)
Latest observation
Last updated: Friday, 25 October — 2:00 AM Philippine Standard Time (PhST; 18:00 UTC)
| JTWC Warning #18 | 2:00 AM PhST (18:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 16.7°N 119.0°E | |
| Relative location: | 173 km (107 mi) W of Baguio, Philippines | |
| 316 km (196 mi) NW of Manila, Philippines | ||
| 1,154 km (717 mi) E of Da Nang, Vietnam | ||
| Forward motion: | ▲ | WSW (265°) at 17 km/h (9 knots) |
| Maximum winds: | ▲ | 85 km/h (45 knots) |
| Intensity (SSHWS): | Tropical Storm | |
| Intensity (JMA): | Severe Tropical Storm [see note] | |
| Minimum pressure: | ▼ | 986 millibars (29.12 inches) |
^NOTE ^- ^Based ^on ^the ^Japan ^Meteorological ^Agency's ^ten-minute ^maximum ^sustained ^wind ^estimate ^of ^95 ^kilometers ^per ^hour ^(50 ^knots).
Official forecasts
NOTE: Both the JMA and the JTWC are forecasting that Trami will remain over water for the next five days.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Last updated: Friday, 25 October — 5:00 AM PhST (21:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | UTC | PhST | JMA | knots | km/h | °N | °E | ||
| 00 | 24 Oct | 21:00 | 5AM Fri | Severe Tropical Storm | 50 | 95 | 17.1 | 119.4 | |
| 12 | 25 Oct | 09:00 | 5PM Fri | Severe Tropical Storm | ▲ | 55 | 100 | 17.5 | 116.8 |
| 24 | 25 Oct | 21:00 | 5AM Sat | Severe Tropical Storm | ▲ | 60 | 110 | 17.6 | 114.4 |
| 45 | 26 Oct | 18:00 | 2AM Sun | Severe Tropical Storm | ▼ | 55 | 100 | 17.3 | 110.7 |
| 69 | 27 Oct | 18:00 | 2AM Mon | Severe Tropical Storm | ▼ | 50 | 95 | 16.4 | 109.4 |
| 93 | 28 Oct | 18:00 | 2AM Tue | Tropical Storm | ▼ | 45 | 85 | 16.3 | 109.9 |
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Last updated: Friday, 25 October — 5:00 AM PhST (21:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | UTC | PhST | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °E | ||
| 00 | 24 Oct | 18:00 | 2AM Fri | Tropical Storm | 45 | 85 | 16.7 | 119.0 | |
| 12 | 24 Oct | 06:00 | 2PM Fri | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 50 | 95 | 16.9 | 117.3 |
| 24 | 25 Oct | 18:00 | 2AM Sat | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 55 | 100 | 17.2 | 115.2 |
| 36 | 25 Oct | 06:00 | 2PM Sat | Tropical Storm | 55 | 100 | 17.1 | 113.1 | |
| 48 | 26 Oct | 18:00 | 2AM Sun | Tropical Storm | ▼ | 50 | 95 | 17.0 | 110.9 |
| 72 | 27 Oct | 18:00 | 2AM Mon | Tropical Storm | ▼ | 40 | 75 | 16.0 | 109.5 |
| 96 | 28 Oct | 18:00 | 2AM Tue | Tropical Storm | ▼ | 35 | 65 | 15.5 | 110.5 |
| 120 | 29 Oct | 18:00 | 2AM Wed | Tropical Storm | 35 | 65 | 15.5 | 112.9 |
^NOTES:
^1 ^- ^Last ^point ^prior ^to ^landfall ^over ^northeastern ^Luzon
^2 ^- ^Inland
^3 ^- ^Over ^the ^South ^China ^Sea
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00:47 UTC
Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 21-27 October 2024
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06:48 UTC
Why is Nadine rather large compared to Oscar? What makes a tropical system large or small?
18:25 UTC
Cape Verde storms
Is Oscar the first named Cape Verde storm? I don't recall any this year.
17:35 UTC
Oscar (16L — Southwestern North Atlantic)
Latest observation
Last updated: Tuesday, 22 October — 2:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 18:00 UTC)
| NHC Advisory #15 | 2:00 PM EDT (18:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 23.0°N 74.0°W | |
| Relative location: | 34 km (21 mi) NE of Crooked Island (Bahamas) | |
| Forward motion: | NE (40°) at 19 km/h (10 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | 55 km/h (30 knots) | |
| Intensity: | ▼ | Dissipated |
| Minimum pressure: | 1007 millibars (29.74 inches) |
Official forecast
Last updated: Tuesday, 22 October — 11:00 AM EDT (15:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | UTC | EDT | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °W | ||
| 00 | 22 Oct | 15:00 | 11AM Tue | Dissipated | 30 | 55 | 23.0 | 74.0 |
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NOTE: The closest radar sites to Hurricane Oscar—Holguín and Grand Piedra—are currently inoperable.
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17:32 UTC