/r/TopRightJokic
/r/TopRightJokic
Through games on May 22, here's how all players have fared on both ends of the floor during the 2023 NBA postseason, per TPA.
There was a very popular post here the other day that stated that Scottie Barnes is the black Jokic.
I simply don't understand.
Jokic has 19.0 total RAPTOR. Barnes has 4.4. Jokic has never been better than a +11.5 on RAPTOR. Barnes has never had better than a +1.2 (although he's a rookie -- that may change. As a lifelong Nuggets fan, I have tremendous respect for the young man's game).
But they're just nothing a like.
Who is alike? Lebron had +10 RAPTOR in 5 out of 6 seasons during his peak from 2009 to 2014. Jokic has had +10 or above RAPTOR in each of his past 6 seasons. Although historical RAPTOR is a bit messy, it's estimated that Kareem also had a stretch, beginning in his first season in the league, of 8 straight seasons with +10 RAPTOR and a peak of +12 RAPTOR, which Jokic might reach with a strong end to the season.
Jokic has better passing than Lebron.
Jokic has better true shooting than Lebron.
Jokic has better rebounding than Lebron.
Jokic has better defense by all advanced metrics than Lebron.
Jokic has better total offense than Lebron.
Jokic produces more gravity than Lebron.
Then why are we comparing him to Barnes?
Go Jokic. We are witnessing history.
Jokic leads the NBA in oRAPTOR
Jokic leads the NBA in dRAPTOR
Jokic leads the NBA in LEBRON
Jokic leads the NBA in DPM
Jokic leads the NBA in SFB
Jokic leads the NBA in EPM
Jokic leads the NBA in DARKO
Nothing in these last few weeks--when Embiid is "resting" games to optimize seeding while Jokic is carrying the Nugget's load on his shoulders--is going to change this for me.
I've seen enough.
Go Jokic. We are witnessing history.
Jokic's current RAPTOR WAR: 18.6
Embiid's current RAPTOR WAR: 9.7
To highlight the enormity of this difference, I ran gradient descent in Python with the goal function being Jokic WAR/ (Jokic + Embiid WAR) minus % state area attributed to "Team Jokic".
I think this visualizes Jokic's dominance (and why he should be the undisputed MVP) quite well.
In this permutation, .3421 square kilometers are distributed to Embiid, while .6579 are to Jokic. By RAPTOR, the numbers are .3428 and .6572.
Interestingly, Alaska, by far the largest state by area, was included in 6 of the top 8 closest permutations.
Go Jokic. We are witnessing history.
This is a look at the 6 advanced metrics of NBA player value that ranked "most helpful" in a recent poll of NBA executives.
The output of each advanced stat is rescaled to [-1,1]. Total value is plotted cumulatively, beginning with each player's rookie season.
Advanced NBA metrics don't always agree.
But when every metric is telling you the same thing, you begin to listen.
Go Jokic. We are witnessing history.