I'm reading this, as there will be future delays and we won't be getting data in Q2 of 2025. What are your thoughts?

https://www.quantumbiopharma.com/quantum-biopharma-vs-banks

You can share your stories of your loss with the company

they are suing the banks that allegedly Spoofed The companies shares downwards.

There is a signup form where you can be interviewed on your losses by the company

I've felt pretty good about psilocybin therapy, ketamine therapy, etc and with RFK Jr. potentially getting confirmed, I feel even better. I've generally failed miserably at picking individual stocks in this space and just lost money (specifically got pretty fucked by FieldTrip Health)

I was looking for ETFs so that I can just throw some money in and forget about it for a few years. The only one I've found are wildly small and low volume (see $PSIL). Are there other ETFs that I'm not seeing?

Investment Thesis

I’m making a large bet on Compass Pathways ($CMPS). I currently have 25% of my portfolio in Compass ($5,000) and plan on doubling my position before Q2. The company’s lead drug candidate is a lay up, the regulatory environment is becoming favorable, cash in the bank, at an extremely attractive valuation.

I’ve cleaned up my bad English with Chat-GPT, with additional edits to correct any mistakes.

Understanding the Company

Compass Pathways’ lead drug candidate, COMP360, is a synthetic formulation of psilocybin currently in Phase 3 trials for Major Depressive Disorder (MDD). The use of psychedelics for mental health treatment has gained significant academic support, showing promise for depression, anxiety, PTSD, and more.

The current alternatives—antidepressants and therapy—are expensive, require long-term use, and have inconsistent efficacy. COMP360’s Phase 2 results demonstrated significant and sustained improvements in MADRS scores after a single dose.

Psilocybin, the active compound in magic mushrooms, has been used for thousands of years in various cultures for healing and spiritual growth. Despite its criminalization under Nixon’s War on Drugs, underground and academic research confirms its profound effects on mental health.

Anecdotally, psilocybin changed my life, and I believe it will change many more.

Valuation at Current Price

Drug development is expensive, costing anywhere from $400M to $2B to bring a drug to market. Compass Pathways is trading at $3.94 per share, with Phase 3 trials completing in 2025.

• Cash per share: $3.04 (76% of share value) • Implied market value of IP: ~$80M (F* all in biotech terms**) from less the cash position • IP portfolio: Over 70 patents on synthetic psilocybin formulations

The company burns roughly $100M annually, but recent layoffs (30% workforce reduction) will reduce the cash burn and help preserve cash. A capital raise of $250M would likely result in a ~30% stock dilution, but that should be sufficient to bring COMP360 to market considering the current stage of drug development.

Given their financial situation, M&A is a real possibility. With 16% insider ownership, any acquisition would likely fully reflect a buyout equivalent to the market cap or a cash offer at a significant premium.

Addressable Market & Revenue Potential

• 320M annual patients within the antidepressant market • $17B spent annually in the US alone on antidepressants • $282B+ total mental health market

The current treatment model is broken—SSRIs and therapy are expensive, ongoing, and often ineffective. COMP360 offers a one-and-done or low-frequency alternative that could save insurers and patients billions.

Revenue Model

A conservative estimate:

• 5% market penetration of antidepressant patients = 16M patients • Estimated cost per treatment: $250 (2x black market prices, not that I’d know…) • Potential revenue: $4B annually

And that’s assuming one-time treatment. If it becomes a quarterly or annual treatment option, revenue could be significantly higher.

Industry Comparables

JNJ’s Spravato (esketamine)—a near-psychedelic drug—has $1.1B in annual sales, growing 56% YoY. COMP360 is potentially more effective and scalable.

Pharma comps suggest a reasonable revenue per share of ~$10.86 for drug companies… if COMP360 hits $1B in revenue and using similar industry P/E ratios, a long-term market cap of $2.5B to $4B (7x-11x upside) is very reasonable.

Regulatory & Political Environment

• 16% insider ownership → Strong internal conviction • Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund is an early investor • JD Vance, Thiel, and Elon Musk have ties to the Trump administration → Favorable regulatory shifts are likely • RFK Jr. (likely future Health Secretary) is pro-psychedelics • Anti-establishment momentum suggests less FDA resistance

The War on Drugs is weakening, and the political environment is shifting toward acceptance of psychedelics for mental health.

Conclusion

Compass Pathways is an undervalued biotech with:

• IP-protected synthetic psilocybin • A large and growing market • A drug with superior efficacy and cost benefits • A regulatory environment shifting in its favor

At $3.94 per share, you’re essentially buying a company for its cash with the IP rights on a drug with industry comparable, conservative revenue potential of >1 billion.

I believe this revenue represents a potential 7x-11x upside. The downside risk is ~30%, mostly tied to dilution risk. If Phase 3 trials succeed (and we “know” they will), COMP360 could become an M&A target or a dominant player in mental health treatment.

Price target: $27.58 - $43.34

I have 25% of my portfolio in CMPS. Change my mind.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-28111-3

Highlights

Participants were 11 healthy psychedelic-naïve individuals (4 females; age M = 42 years, SD = 10.12).

This study was conducted as part of a larger trial focused on investigating long-term psychological and brain changes following a single 25 mg dose of psilocybin in healthy psychedelic naïve volunteers. Psilocybin (COMP360) was provided by COMPASS Pathways

This study used a single-blind, fixed order, within-subjects design. Participants underwent two dosing sessions four weeks apart. The first session involved a 1 mg dose of psilocybin and the second, a 25 mg dose of psilocybin.

Four weeks after the administration of 25 mg psilocybin, we found a moderate-substantial and significant decrease in confidence in negative self-beliefs. These results expand on past research showing significant decreases in pessimism (e.g.,32) and hopelessness6 following psilocybin therapy.

Following the 25 mg, but not the 1 mg psilocybin session, we found a strong relationship between participants’ acute unitive experience and decreases in negative self-belief confidence (acutely and 4-weeks later).

Particularly strong evidence was seen for a relationship between decreases in negative self-belief confidence and increases in well-being.

Although our sample was comprised of healthy individuals, these finding suggest that psilocybin therapy may be especially promising for the treatment of psychiatric disorders characterized by especially rigid and inflexible negative self-beliefs, such as depression45 and anorexia (see46,47).

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https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/238481/Awakn-Life-Sciences-Provides-Update-on-RD-Programs-Progressing-Novel-Therapeutics-for-Alcohol-Use-Disorder-and-PTSD

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