Today we have seen many posts regarding Bagnaia crashes and this lead me to do some more analysis.

I thought that just analysing the number of DNFs was hiding the true nature of the data, which could give more insight into the growth and strengths of our championship contenders.

The results was that Martin's mistakes, even if less in number, led to more points lost.

This is not an attack to Martin, but the opposite. He managed to be ahead in the championship through his consistency even if he has been blowing up the most points. At the same time, Bagnaia has been blamed for the amount of crashes, but these crashes led to less points lost than expected. His point deficit is coming from the poor performance in Sprints in the first half of the season EVEN when finishing.

Some numbers:

Martin: Jerez race -30 (crashed in front of Bagnaia, lost 25 and Bagnaia gained 5) Sachsenring race -30 (crashed in front of Bagnaia, lost 25 and Bagnaia gained 5) Misano1 race -15 (went to the pits behind Bagnaia who finished second, finished with 1 point) Mugello sprint -7 (crashed from third) Indonesia sprint -15 (crashed in front of Bagnaia, lost 12 and Bagnaia gained 3)

Bagnaia: Portimao race -10 (would have finished 6th behind Marquez if they didn't collide) Aragon race -16 (would have overtaken A.Marquez and finishe third if they didn't collide) Misano2 race -16 (would have finished third) Jerez sprint -5 (collided while fighting in fifth, here he might have finished a little higher) Le Mans sprint ? (Mechanical issue, he was already 15th after the first turn, not a mistake) Catalunya sprint -15 (crashed in front of Martin, lost 12 and Martin gained 3) Silverstone sprint -6 (crashed from fourth) Sepang -9 (crashed from second)

Another very interesting trend the we can see is the lack of collisions and mechanical issues for Martin, being very smart picking his fights, while he all his crashes by himself. Bagnaia had a limited amount of bins compared to the past seasons, showing progress, while racking up 3 collisions with other riders. He proved to be a fierce fighter but that went against him this season.

Jorge Martin is on a GP24, but on a satellite team. How does that compare with factory team? How different are the bikes on race day?

In the beginning he was looking to be in the Top5-6. First 4-5 races were decent getting 2nd at the max but he wasn’t near the win.

Man the second half he’s consistently with top guys. Today in sepang where its his worst track, his timesheet were close to the top guys. What a talent

I wish this man all the best. He has to win 2 more titles at least.

Martin didn’t finish race 3 times, but has additional 2 costly mistakes to his name too - Misano and Mandalika.

However the last time his own mistake totally ended his race was back in Germany.

I'm not here to like diss him or anything, in fact I think him going to win the 2021 championship was nothing short of spectacular. It's just that on paper, his moto3 and moto2 careers seem incredibly underwhelming. I mean, 13th in his first moto3 season and then 10th in his second. 10th in his first moto2 season and then 13th in his second season. From what seemed to be abysmal seasons in the junior championships to becoming an absolutely sensational rider in his rookie premier class season and in a satellite team is insanity. And then he goes on to pretty much cement himself as a top rider in his 2020-2022 seasons. All of this success especially coming from what seemed to be a pretty much average junior category career is mind boggling to me. I mean I might be overreacting or something because I am quite fairly new to this sport and I'm also a formula racing fan but still I think this is absolutely crazy. sorry if anything was hard to read in this, by the way.

All the other rider championships have been decided, GP team and constructor are decided.

Would anything significant other than maybe some non champion rider or team standings change?

I missed moto2 quali and just checked that Jorge was on pole (what the f-) with Marcos on P2 (I think he kinda deserves it). Literally kinda amazed at seeing this result for a rather mid-pack team.

Source (Italian): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VSnIPPgCjWI
[The following is not a perfect literal transcript but rather a summarized version]

The main issue with the races, even the sprints, is that there are simply too many laps. The new MotoGP is physically demanding—after just five laps, I was exhausted. It's really tough on the body. Although my pace was there, I didn't have the strength to maintain the desired riding style for an extended period.

The stronger brakes require much harder braking, and you have to enter corners at very high speeds due to the ground effect, similar to Formula 1. When leaning, you need to use your whole body to push the bike downwards, which is exhausting.

I could maintain a mid-59.5 pace for a few laps, but sustaining that for the entire race was impossible. When I left MotoGP, a 59.5 was enough for pole position (laughs). Now, you need to keep that pace for half an hour. The bikes are much longer and bigger, demanding a lot more physical effort. I had a lot of fun, but I'm ready to go home (laughs). I'm not sure what I'll do tomorrow for the full race; perhaps I'll make a pit stop to take a break. Petrucci warned me that the second half of the race would be rough.

The ride height device was relatively easy to learn, but yesterday, during the fastest lap, I forgot to disengage it and rode the second half of the lap with the lower bike. You need to remember a lot of things. Due to focusing on the device, I downshifted too much and took turn 14 in first gear, losing the bike and a few tenths. I could've been in Q2. Fortunately, here you only have to use it twice a lap, so it's not too much. I'm unsure if I'll race in the season finale.

SPRINT Race Pace #MalaysianGP

J.Martin lead the pack having more in his hand but kept it steady to finish line.

M. Marquez was right behind him till penultimate lap. Following Marc was E. Bastianini on GP24 who couldn’t close the gap to Marc.

F. Quartararo unreal ride from him. He kept Morbidelli in GP24 behind whole race.

Alex Marquez did great job he's carrying good pace in Malaysia.

Franco Morbidelli's pace was 1.59.331 on GP24 which was even slower than Quartararo on Yamaha M1. And Bezzecchi was whole 1 second off the pace of the leading GP23 Ducati of Marc Marquez.