/r/CredibleDefense

Photograph via snooOG

This is a forum dedicated to civil and informed discussion of military and defense issues and to bring better public understand of related topics. As such, our rules are more stringent than the typical subreddit.

  • Wiki Glossary of Common Terms and Abbreviations. (Request an addition)

  • Strive to be informative, professional, gracious, and encouraging in your communications with other members here. Imagine writing to a superior in the Armed Forces, or a colleague in a think tank or major investigative journal.

  • General Rules

    • No blind partisanship. We aim to study defense, not wage wars behind keyboards. Defense views from or about all countries are welcome so long as they are credible.

    • Do not "link drop", where a comment's just a link to an article or news source without any details, clarification, elaboration or analysis. Your fellow users prefer at least a few sentences indicating why we should care, with context or insight.

    • If you have experience in relevant fields, understand your limitations. Just because you work in the defense arena does not mean you are always correct.

    • This is not at all intended to be US centric; posts relating to other countries are highly encouraged.

    • Don’t be abrasive/insulting.

    • No AI-generated conten, image macros, GIFs, emojis or memes.

    • No Leaked Material - Please do not submit or otherwise link to classified material. And please take discussions of classified material to a more secure location.

    • No denial of war crimes or genocide.

    Comments

    • Should be substantive and contribute to discussion.

    • No one-liners, jokes, insults, shorthand, etc. Avoid excessive sarcasm or snark.

    • Sources are highly encouraged, but please do not link to low quality sources such as RT, New York Post, The National Interest, CGTN, etc. unless they serve a useful purpose.

    • Be polite and informative to others here, and remember that we should be able to disagree without being disagreeable.

    • Do not accuse or personally challenge others, rather ask them for sources and why they have their opinions.

    • Do not ask others their background as it is rude and not encouraging of others to have an open discussion.

    • Please do no not make irrelevant jokes, offtopic pun threads, use sarcasm, respond to a title of a piece without reading it, or in general make comments that adds nothing to the discussion. Please refrain from top-level jokes. Humor is appreciated, but it should be safe for a professional environment and infrequent.

    • Please do not blindly advocate for a side in a conflict, or a country in general. Surely there are many patriots here, but this is not the arena to fight those battles.

    • Asking questions in the comment section of a submission, or in a megathread, is a great way to start a conversation and learn.

    Submissions

    • Text posts only. This does not mean links are banned, rather, they should be submitted as part of the text post. Posts should not be quick updates or short term. They should hold up and be readable over time, so you will be glad that you read them months or years from now.

    • Links should go to credible, high quality sources (academia, government, think tanks), and the body should be a brief summary plus some comments on what makes it good or insightful.

    • Essays/Effortposts are encouraged. Essays/Effortposts are text posts you make which have an underlying thesis or attempt to synthesize information. They should cite sources, be well-written, and be relatively long. An example of an excellent effortpost is this.

    • Please use the original title of the work (or a descriptive title; de-editorializing/de-clickbaiting is acceptable), and possibly a sub headline.

    • Refrain from submissions that are quick updates in title form, troop movements, ship deployments, terrorist attacks, announcements, or the crisis du jour.

    • Discussions of opinion pieces by distinguished authors, historical research, and the research of warfare relating to national security issues is encouraged.

    • We are primarily a reading forum, so please no image macros, gifs, emojis or memes.

    • All posts will be manually approved by moderators.

    Please report items which violate these rules. We don’t know about it unless you point it out.

    Credible Outlets

    We maintain lists of sources so that anyone can help to find interesting open source material to share. As outlets wax and wane in quality, please help us keep the list updated:

    https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/credibleoutlets

    /r/CredibleDefense

    97,745 Subscribers

    44

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread May 29, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    200 Comments
    2024/05/29
    12:00 UTC

    57

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread May 28, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    405 Comments
    2024/05/28
    12:00 UTC

    65

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread May 27, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    346 Comments
    2024/05/27
    12:00 UTC

    68

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread May 26, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    284 Comments
    2024/05/26
    12:00 UTC

    64

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread May 25, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    150 Comments
    2024/05/25
    12:00 UTC

    61

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread May 24, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    268 Comments
    2024/05/24
    12:00 UTC

    62

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread May 23, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    253 Comments
    2024/05/23
    12:00 UTC

    30

    What conditions would warrant elevating INDOPACOM to a five-star command? Are there tactical or strategic advantages to such a decision, from a chain of command or organizational standpoint?

    The only four admirals to be promoted to the rank of fleet admirals in the history of the US Navy were all promoted for their responsibilities in the Pacific theater of operations during World War Two: King, Nimitz, Leahy, and Halsey.

    What conditions would warrant elevating INDOPACOM to a five-star command?

    Would the CNO, as the statutorily most senior officer in the US Navy, be required to be a fleet admiral too, so as not to be outranked by COMINDOPACOM? How would this affect the rank structure of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?

    In the event of a major war in the Pacific at some undefined point in the future, where the bulk of US global military forces would be brought to bear in the Pacific theater, would subordinating numbered fleets, air forces, and armies to four-star officers under the theater command of a five-star admiral make military sense? Or would it be a purely political decision? Are there any tactical or strategic advantages to such a decision, from a chain of command or organizational standpoint?

    5 Comments
    2024/05/23
    01:39 UTC

    27

    Shifting US force posture and land-based missiles in the Western Pacific - Why?

    Interested to know what is driving the recent shift in US force posture toward land-based long-range strike. In past years, think tanks have begun discussing the possibility of positioning land-based missiles along the First Island Chain for sea denial and air defense (but also SSMs capable of strikes against the Chinese mainland). Same operational concept under different names: Archipelagic Defense, Inside-Out Defense etc.

    The recent deployment of the Typhon launcher to the Philippines appears to be an attempt at validating this concept.

    Traditionally, US power-projection into the region has relied on sea-based and air-based platforms. The AirSea Battle concept in the early 2010s mostly adhered to this despite challenges posed by Chinese A2/AD. Now the emphasis seems to be shifting toward maritime denial and holding the line at the First Island Chain with land-based missiles, rather than a more direct approach involving operations within the First Island Chain, penetrating standoff strikes against the mainland (with attendant risks), and sea-based mobility.

    Would be interested to know the considerations and drivers behind this shift.

    • Why the sudden interest in land-based long-range fires? There are some advantages to land-based missiles that I can think of (cost-effectiveness, survivability, larger payloads, volume, easier logistics and communications), but why is this happening now? Is it something opportunistic stemming from the withdrawal from the INF Treaty? Is it the Army seeking a role in the Pacific?
    • Is it a response to China's improving A2/AD capabilities? How does this help to ameliorate those problems?
    • Has there been a shift away from AirSea Battle? What elements have been discarded/replaced and why?
    • How do other recent US moves such as the search for more resilient and dispersed airbases (e.g. in the Philippines) and the Marine Littoral Regiments and EABO, the Navy's Distributed Maritime Operations, AUKUS submarines etc. fit into the larger CONOPS and changing force posture? Or am I assuming some coherence here?
    15 Comments
    2024/05/22
    04:47 UTC

    64

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread May 22, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    415 Comments
    2024/05/22
    12:00 UTC

    55

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread May 21, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    192 Comments
    2024/05/21
    12:00 UTC

    66

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread May 20, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    291 Comments
    2024/05/20
    12:00 UTC

    71

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread May 19, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    211 Comments
    2024/05/19
    12:00 UTC

    60

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread May 18, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

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    216 Comments
    2024/05/18
    12:00 UTC

    62

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread May 17, 2024

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    277 Comments
    2024/05/17
    12:00 UTC

    126

    My Undergraduate Discovery: Adjusting China's Defence Spending to US Levels with Military PPP

    As an undergraduate, I undertook a dissertation from about January-March 2023 that led me to uncover insights into the defence spending of China compared to the US. Motivated by a desire to explore beyond the surface figures, I applied a military-focused PPP factor, as discussed in Robertson (2021), to the defence budgets of several nations. This analytical approach revealed that when adjusted for military purchasing power, China's defence budget is potentially on par with that of the US. Months after completing my dissertation, similar findings began appearing in reports from other institutions, affirming the relevance and timing of my research. I'm sharing this on Reddit not just to highlight my findings but also to demonstrate the impact and validity of thorough academic work at the undergraduate level.

    Body:

    While the scale of US defence spending frequently dominates discussions, an analysis employing a military-focused Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) factor offers a different perspective. For my undergraduate dissertation, I used the methodology from Robertson (2021) to adjust the defence budgets of several nations, including China.

    Recent data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (2022) underscores the significant growth of China’s defence budget. However, when this data is adjusted using a military-focused PPP, the gap between China and the US narrows considerably.

    It’s crucial to highlight that this analysis only covers the official PLA (People's Liberation Army) budget. It does not account for additional obscured expenditures and paramilitary forces, which total in the hundreds of billions. Including these figures would likely show that China’s total defence spending could be on par with, or even exceed, that of the US.

    This finding, derived months before similar reports from other channels, demonstrates the innovative analytical approaches developed during my undergraduate studies and their relevance to current geopolitical discussions.

    Charts 1 and 2 with market rate, and military PPP adjusted defence spending for USA, China, Russia, and the UK as of 2021

    1. Military PPP Adjusted: This graph shows defence spending adjusted by a military-specific PPP, which accounts for the differences in purchasing power across countries specific to military expenditure. The adjusted values suggest that while the US still spends more on defence, the gap between the US and China is considerably less when accounting for what each country can buy militarily with their budgets. China's spending appears much closer to that of the US, highlighting its growing military capabilities relative to the US dollar.
    2. Market Rate Conversion: This chart uses standard market exchange rates to convert defence spending into US dollars. This method typically reflects the international exchange rate environment but may not accurately represent the real purchasing power of a country's military budget. Here, the US's spending significantly outpaces that of China, Russia, and the UK, illustrating the traditional view of US military budget dominance.

    Together, these charts provide a comprehensive view of how defence spending comparisons can vary significantly depending on the conversion method used. The Military PPP adjusted chart offers a perspective that considers how much military capability each dollar actually buys, which is crucial for understanding the practical implications of defence spending. In contrast, the Market Rate Conversion chart gives a more straightforward comparison but might not fully capture the effective military power a budget provides.

    This analysis is essential for understanding not just the nominal figures of defence budgets but their actual impact and capability on a global scale, highlighting the strategic financial power countries hold when adjusted for real-world military purchasing power.

    Robertson, P., 2021. Debating defence budgets: Why military purchasing power parity matters. [Online] Available at: https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/debating-defence-budgets-why-military-purchasing-power-parity-matters [Accessed 21 March 2023].

    Robertson, P., 2021. The Real Military Balance: International Comparisons of Defense Spending. Review of Income and Wealth, 42(2), pp. 385-394.

    43 Comments
    2024/05/16
    16:56 UTC

    67

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread May 16, 2024

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    321 Comments
    2024/05/16
    12:00 UTC

    67

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread May 15, 2024

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    279 Comments
    2024/05/15
    12:00 UTC

    0

    China's defense policy and potential conflict

    I've skimmed through some posts about Chinese military affairs, and there are just too many errors and biases. Let me give you an introduction to the current Chinese military and military strategy from the perspective of Chinese themselves. (My English is not very good, so my expression may not be fluent or clear enough, and there may even be mistakes).

    In 2015, the top command believed that the previous military management and command system lacked clear division of functions and specialization, making it difficult to efficiently coordinate operations among different services. It was also inadequate for coping with high-tech warfare between major powers and high-intensity localized conflicts under conditions of informatization. Without improving the command structure, the PLA's combat capability would be severely restricted. Subsequently, the PLA began implementing reforms. The goal of the reform is to adapt to informationized warfare by assigning military management and operational command to different services and theaters, allowing each theater and service to focus on its own development and thus enhancing the overall combat effectiveness of the entire military.

    I. Overall Strategy

    China's defense policy is defensive in nature. The government stated in its 2019 white paper, "We will never threaten any country or seek any sphere of influence." It pursues a policy of not being the first to use nuclear weapons and does not participate in any military alliances. This is different from the Soviet Union. Although both are socialist countries, China, unlike the Soviet Union, does not seek global military presence or pursue "world revolution." For us Chinese, ideology is not important; reality is what matters. Under the central strategy of "centering on economic development," China's defense strategy is destined to be defensive in nature.

    II. Potential Conflict

    The only region where large-scale conflict could potentially occur in China is Taiwan.

    The military is working to build Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) capabilities to prevent U.S. military intervention in China.

    Although foreigners like to refer to China and Taiwan separately, this is incorrect for both the CCP and the Taiwanese authorities. Regardless of whether it is the "People's Republic of China" or the "Republic of China," Taiwan is a province, because they both claim sovereignty over the entire territory of China. In their dealings with other countries, they all demand one or the other. That is where the “one China” principle comes from, that is, you can only choose between the Chinese Communist Government and the Taiwan authorities.

    This situation stems from the civil war many years ago, in which the Kuomintang government lost all internal provinces except Taiwan Province. You can see today's conflict between Taiwan and the mainland as a continuation of that civil war.

    The CCP has always tried to achieve true national unity, even nominally (one country, two systems allows Taiwan to retain its military and all political systems unchanged, only requiring the Taiwanese authorities to recognize themselves as a local government, while the CCP is the legitimate central government). However, obviously, this has not been smooth. The Taiwanese authorities are unwilling to accept only becoming a local government, even nominally.

    If you were to ask me whether the mainland would attack Taiwan? My answer is I don't know. As long as Taiwan is still called the "Republic of China" and remains within the framework of "One China," not seeking to become a "Taiwan Republic" hostile to China, then armed conflict is unlikely to occur. As long as Taiwan nominally belongs to China, its ideology and system are something we don't particularly care about. If the "Republic of China" in Taiwan seeks to become a "Taiwan Republic" and willingly becomes a forward military base for the United States against China (Taiwan is only a hundred kilometers away from the mainland's heartland, and even deploying short-range weapons there would pose a huge threat), Then there's a possibility of war.

    However, both sides have been calling out to each other for 70 years—whether it's the CCP aiming to reunify Taiwan Province or Taiwan planning to counterattack and unify China. So, who knows?

    This is an analysis from a historical and geopolitical perspective. "Freedom" and "democracy" are good things, but this is not the real conflict between Taiwan and the mainland. That's all I'm going to write, and sometime I can talk more about how the Chinese view U.S. military actions and the strategic goals and approaches taken.

    55 Comments
    2024/05/14
    12:40 UTC

    59

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread May 14, 2024

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    191 Comments
    2024/05/14
    12:00 UTC

    78

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread May 13, 2024

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    415 Comments
    2024/05/13
    12:00 UTC

    74

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread May 12, 2024

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    245 Comments
    2024/05/12
    12:00 UTC

    54

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread May 11, 2024

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    243 Comments
    2024/05/11
    12:00 UTC

    79

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread May 10, 2024

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    332 Comments
    2024/05/10
    12:00 UTC

    71

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread May 09, 2024

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    390 Comments
    2024/05/09
    12:00 UTC

    62

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread May 08, 2024

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    376 Comments
    2024/05/08
    12:00 UTC

    69

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread May 07, 2024

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    333 Comments
    2024/05/07
    12:00 UTC

    64

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread May 06, 2024

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    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    150 Comments
    2024/05/06
    12:00 UTC

    68

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread May 05, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    207 Comments
    2024/05/05
    12:00 UTC

    63

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread May 04, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    176 Comments
    2024/05/04
    12:00 UTC

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