/r/CredibleDefense

Photograph via snooOG

*This is a subreddit dedicated to collating articles and opinion pieces relating to national security issues.

*This is not at all intended to be US centric; posts relating to other countries are highly encouraged.

*The purpose of this subreddit is to learn for ourselves, and to bring better public understanding of related topics.

  • Wiki Glossary of Common Terms and Abbreviations. [Request an addition]
  • Guidelines

    • Strive to be informative, professional, gracious, and encouraging in your communications with other members here. Imagine writing to a superior in the Armed Forces, or a colleague in a think tank or major investigative journal.

    • This is a subreddit dedicated to collating articles, opinion pieces by distinguished authors, historical research, and the research of warfare relating to national security issues.

    • The purpose of this subreddit is to learn for ourselves, and to bring better public understanding of related topics.

    • This is not at all intended to be US centric; posts relating to other countries are highly encouraged.

    Comments

    • This is a forum dedicated to civil and informed discussion of military and defense issues.

    • Be polite and informative to others here, and remember that we should be able to disagree without being disagreeable.

    • Do not accuse or personally challenge others, rather ask them for sources and why they have their opinions.

    • Do not ask others their background as it is rude and not encouraging of others to have an open discussion.

    • Please do no not make irrelevant jokes, offtopic pun threads, use sarcasm, respond to a title of a piece without reading it, or in general make comments that adds nothing to the discussion. Please refrain from top-level jokes. Humor is appreciated, but it should be safe for a professional environment and infrequent.

    • Please do not blindly advocate for a side in a conflict, or a country in general. Surely there are many patriots here, but this is not the arena to fight those battles.

    • Asking questions in the comment section of a submission, or in a megathread, is a great way to start a conversation and learn.

    Submission Statement

    • Every submission should have a submission statement by the submitter/OP. A short paragraph or two from the submission itself can suffice, as long as they provide a good summary. This helps to start a conversation, force one to think about why it is interesting and why it is relevant to us.

    Submissions

    • Please use the original title of the work (or a descriptive title; de-editorializing/de-clickbaiting is acceptable), and possibly a sub headline.

    • Submit articles that you will be glad that you read months or years from now.

    • Refrain from submissions that are quick updates in title form, troop movements, ship deployments, terrorist attacks, announcements, or the crisis du jour.

    • We are primarily a reading forum, so please no image macros, gifs, or memes.

    No Leaked Material

    • Please do not submit or otherwise link to classified material. And please take discussions of classified material to a more secure location.

    • In general avoid any information that will endanger anyone.

    Credible Outlets We maintain lists of sources so that anyone can help to find interesting open source material to share. The older list can no longer be added to as it is over six months old. Please help us complete the new list.

    Old List

    List under construction

    /r/CredibleDefense

    72,669 Subscribers

    87

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread January 31, 2023

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible, well-sourced information

    * Leave a submission statement that justifies the legitimacy or importance of what you are submitting,

    * Ask questions in the megathread, and not as a self post,

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    * Submit articles that will be relevant 5-10 years from now, and not ephemeral news stories

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, or emojis, excessive swearing, foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Answer or respond directly to the title of an article,

    * Submit news updates, or procurement events/sales of defense equipment.

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    507 Comments
    2023/01/31
    13:00 UTC

    107

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread January 30, 2023

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible, well-sourced information

    * Leave a submission statement that justifies the legitimacy or importance of what you are submitting,

    * Ask questions in the megathread, and not as a self post,

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    * Submit articles that will be relevant 5-10 years from now, and not ephemeral news stories

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, or emojis, excessive swearing, foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Answer or respond directly to the title of an article,

    * Submit news updates, or procurement events/sales of defense equipment.

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    794 Comments
    2023/01/30
    13:00 UTC

    103

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread January 29, 2023

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible, well-sourced information

    * Leave a submission statement that justifies the legitimacy or importance of what you are submitting,

    * Ask questions in the megathread, and not as a self post,

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    * Submit articles that will be relevant 5-10 years from now, and not ephemeral news stories

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, or emojis, excessive swearing, foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Answer or respond directly to the title of an article,

    * Submit news updates, or procurement events/sales of defense equipment.

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    680 Comments
    2023/01/29
    13:00 UTC

    84

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread January 28, 2023

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible, well-sourced information

    * Leave a submission statement that justifies the legitimacy or importance of what you are submitting,

    * Ask questions in the megathread, and not as a self post,

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    * Submit articles that will be relevant 5-10 years from now, and not ephemeral news stories

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, or emojis, excessive swearing, foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Answer or respond directly to the title of an article,

    * Submit news updates, or procurement events/sales of defense equipment.

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    592 Comments
    2023/01/28
    13:00 UTC

    105

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread January 27, 2023

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible, well-sourced information

    * Leave a submission statement that justifies the legitimacy or importance of what you are submitting,

    * Ask questions in the megathread, and not as a self post,

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    * Submit articles that will be relevant 5-10 years from now, and not ephemeral news stories

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, or emojis, excessive swearing, foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Answer or respond directly to the title of an article,

    * Submit news updates, or procurement events/sales of defense equipment.

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    712 Comments
    2023/01/27
    13:00 UTC

    99

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread January 26, 2023

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible, well-sourced information

    * Leave a submission statement that justifies the legitimacy or importance of what you are submitting,

    * Ask questions in the megathread, and not as a self post,

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    * Submit articles that will be relevant 5-10 years from now, and not ephemeral news stories

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, or emojis, excessive swearing, foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Answer or respond directly to the title of an article,

    * Submit news updates, or procurement events/sales of defense equipment.

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    969 Comments
    2023/01/26
    13:00 UTC

    158

    Avoiding a Long War - U.S. Policy and the Trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

    Avoiding a Long War - U.S. Policy and the Trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

    by Samuel Charap, Miranda Priebe

    • Russian use of nuclear weapons is a plausible contingency that Washington needs to account for and a hugely important factor in determining the future trajectory of the conflict
    • Although a Russian decision to attack a NATO member state is by no means inevitable, the risk is elevated while the conflict in Ukraine is ongoing.
    • Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley reportedly kept a list of “U.S. interests and strategic objectives” in the crisis: “No. 1” was “Don’t have a kinetic conflict between the U.S. military and NATO with Russia.” The second, closely related, was “contain war inside the geographical boundaries of Ukraine.”
    • It is clear why Milley listed avoiding a Russia-NATO war as the top U.S. priority: The U.S. military would immediately be involved in a hot war with a country that has the world’s largest nuclear arsenal. Keeping a Russia-NATO war below the nuclear threshold would be extremely difficult, particularly given the weakened state of Russia’s conventional military.
    • Since neither side appears to have the intention or capabilities to achieve absolute victory, the war will most likely end with some sort of negotiated outcome.
    • Since avoiding a long war is the highest priority after minimizing escalation risks, the United States should take steps that make an end to the conflict over the medium term more likely.
    • A major source of uncertainty about the future course of the war is the relative lack of clarity about the future of U.S. and allied military assistance to Ukraine.

    Samuel Charap is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. His research interests include the foreign policies of Russia and the former Soviet states; European and Eurasian regional security; and U.S.-Russia deterrence, strategic stability, and arms control.

    From November 2012 until April 2017, Charap was the senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Prior to joining the IISS, he served at the U.S. Department of State as senior advisor to the undersecretary for Arms Control and International Security and on the Secretary’s Policy Planning Staff, covering Russia and Eurasia. From 2009 to 2011, Charap was director for Russia and Eurasia at the Center for American Progress.

    Charap's book on the Ukraine crisis, Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia (coauthored with Timothy Colton), was published in January 2017. His articles have appeared in The Washington Quarterly, Foreign Affairs, Survival, Current History and several other journals.

    Charap was a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Moscow Center and the International Center for Policy Studies (Kyiv), and a Fulbright Scholar at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations. He is fluent in Russian and proficient in Ukrainian. Charap holds a Ph.D. in political science and an M.Phil. in Russian and East European studies from the University of Oxford, where he was a Marshall Scholar. He received his B.A. in Russian and political science from Amherst College. He is a life member of the Council on Foreign Relations. 

    Miranda Priebe is director of the Center for Analysis of U.S. Grand Strategy and a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation.

    Her work at RAND has focused on grand strategy, the future of the international order, effects of U.S. forward presence, military doctrine, history of U.S. military policy, distributed air operations, and multi-domain command and control. She has also conducted research on deterrence, reassurance, threat perceptions, rising powers, alliance politics, and U.S. defense budgets. Priebe received a Ph.D. in political science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. She also received a Master of Public Affairs degree from Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School and S.B. degrees in physics and political science from MIT.

    181 Comments
    2023/01/26
    02:24 UTC

    96

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread January 25, 2023

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible, well-sourced information

    * Leave a submission statement that justifies the legitimacy or importance of what you are submitting,

    * Ask questions in the megathread, and not as a self post,

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    * Submit articles that will be relevant 5-10 years from now, and not ephemeral news stories

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, or emojis, excessive swearing, foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Answer or respond directly to the title of an article,

    * Submit news updates, or procurement events/sales of defense equipment.

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    814 Comments
    2023/01/25
    13:00 UTC

    113

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread January 24, 2023

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible, well-sourced information

    * Leave a submission statement that justifies the legitimacy or importance of what you are submitting,

    * Ask questions in the megathread, and not as a self post,

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    * Submit articles that will be relevant 5-10 years from now, and not ephemeral news stories

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, or emojis, excessive swearing, foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Answer or respond directly to the title of an article,

    * Submit news updates, or procurement events/sales of defense equipment.

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    1145 Comments
    2023/01/24
    13:00 UTC

    100

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread January 23, 2023

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible, well-sourced information

    * Leave a submission statement that justifies the legitimacy or importance of what you are submitting,

    * Ask questions in the megathread, and not as a self post,

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    * Submit articles that will be relevant 5-10 years from now, and not ephemeral news stories

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, or emojis, excessive swearing, foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Answer or respond directly to the title of an article,

    * Submit news updates, or procurement events/sales of defense equipment.

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    572 Comments
    2023/01/23
    13:00 UTC

    112

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread January 22, 2023

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible, well-sourced information

    * Leave a submission statement that justifies the legitimacy or importance of what you are submitting,

    * Ask questions in the megathread, and not as a self post,

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    * Submit articles that will be relevant 5-10 years from now, and not ephemeral news stories

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, or emojis, excessive swearing, foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Answer or respond directly to the title of an article,

    * Submit news updates, or procurement events/sales of defense equipment.

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    768 Comments
    2023/01/22
    13:00 UTC

    91

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread January 21, 2023

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible, well-sourced information

    * Leave a submission statement that justifies the legitimacy or importance of what you are submitting,

    * Ask questions in the megathread, and not as a self post,

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    * Submit articles that will be relevant 5-10 years from now, and not ephemeral news stories

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, or emojis, excessive swearing, foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Answer or respond directly to the title of an article,

    * Submit news updates, or procurement events/sales of defense equipment.

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    836 Comments
    2023/01/21
    13:00 UTC

    116

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread January 20, 2023

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

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    1116 Comments
    2023/01/20
    13:00 UTC

    104

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread January 19, 2023

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    1013 Comments
    2023/01/19
    13:00 UTC

    96

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread January 18, 2023

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    944 Comments
    2023/01/18
    13:00 UTC

    99

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread January 17, 2023

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    862 Comments
    2023/01/17
    13:00 UTC

    108

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread January 16, 2023

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    769 Comments
    2023/01/16
    13:00 UTC

    109

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread January 15, 2023

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    547 Comments
    2023/01/15
    13:00 UTC

    94

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread January 14, 2023

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    698 Comments
    2023/01/14
    13:00 UTC

    115

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread January 13, 2023

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    739 Comments
    2023/01/13
    13:00 UTC

    113

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread January 12, 2023

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    640 Comments
    2023/01/12
    13:00 UTC

    88

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread January 11, 2023

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    734 Comments
    2023/01/11
    13:00 UTC

    235

    Report Launch―The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan

    https://youtu.be/MoZv_7KYMkA

    WHAT IS THIS? ---------------------------------------------

    • An introduction (90min YouTube video) of a summary report of multiple war-games of China amphibious invasion of Taiwan, done by CSIS (civilian think tank)
    • 24 games with different conditions were conducted to explore sensitivity of outcome to variations
    • A panel discussion of conclusions and recommendations

    KEY TAKEAWAYS ---------------------------------------------

    Conclusions from war-games

    • Invasion is likely to fail, though China would succeed in landing in Taiwan
    • Regardless of outcome, heavy losses for all involved: China, Taiwan, US. US will lose several carriers and 100s of aircrafts.
    • Conditions that are critical in ensuring eventual Chinese failure: Taiwan must resist US must immediately enter direct combat US must conduct operations from Japan US must have sufficient anti-ship munitions

    Panel discussion (guests: ret USAF general, prof Naval Warfare College, CNAS analyst)

    • Given possibility of heavy losses, US and Taiwan should focus on deterring China from initiating invasion
    • Deterring China involves acquiring capabilities that create large uncertainty in Chinese confidence in victory
    • For US: stealth bombers, submarines, stand-off missiles
    • For Taiwan: mobile missile launchers, unmanned aerial and surface vehicles
    • US navy will have difficulty carrying out their primary role: striking enemy targets
    • Panel highlighted vulnerability of USAF assets, which are currently unsheltered and concentrated in few bases. Investments need to be made to address this before the war.
    • Panel has expressed concern about readiness of political leaders and population to face a conflict such as the war-games
    272 Comments
    2023/01/10
    17:45 UTC

    102

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread January 10, 2023

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    821 Comments
    2023/01/10
    13:00 UTC

    98

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread January 09, 2023

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    691 Comments
    2023/01/09
    13:00 UTC

    93

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread January 08, 2023

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    362 Comments
    2023/01/08
    13:00 UTC

    109

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread January 07, 2023

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    628 Comments
    2023/01/07
    13:00 UTC

    94

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread January 06, 2023

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    684 Comments
    2023/01/06
    13:00 UTC

    102

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread January 05, 2023

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    886 Comments
    2023/01/05
    13:00 UTC

    112

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread January 04, 2023

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    784 Comments
    2023/01/04
    13:00 UTC

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