Guidelines

Comment guidelines:

​

Please do:

​

* Be curious not judgmental,

* Be polite and civil,

* Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

* Use capitalization,

* Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

* Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

* Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

* Post only credible, well-sourced information

* Leave a submission statement that justifies the legitimacy or importance of what you are submitting,

* Ask questions in the megathread, and not as a self post,

* Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

* Submit articles that will be relevant 5-10 years from now, and not ephemeral news stories

​

Please do not:

​

* Use memes, or emojis, excessive swearing, foul imagery,

* Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc,

* Start fights with other commenters,

* Make it personal,

* Try to out someone,

* Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

* Answer or respond directly to the title of an article,

* Submit news updates, or procurement events/sales of defense equipment.

* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

​

Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

Comment guidelines:

​

Please do:

​

* Be curious not judgmental,

* Be polite and civil,

* Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

* Use capitalization,

* Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

* Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

* Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

* Post only credible, well-sourced information

* Leave a submission statement that justifies the legitimacy or importance of what you are submitting,

* Ask questions in the megathread, and not as a self post,

* Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

* Submit articles that will be relevant 5-10 years from now, and not ephemeral news stories

​

Please do not:

​

* Use memes, or emojis, excessive swearing, foul imagery,

* Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc,

* Start fights with other commenters,

* Make it personal,

* Try to out someone,

* Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

* Answer or respond directly to the title of an article,

* Submit news updates, or procurement events/sales of defense equipment.

* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

​

Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

Comment guidelines:

​

Please do:

​

* Be curious not judgmental,

* Be polite and civil,

* Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

* Use capitalization,

* Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

* Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

* Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

* Post only credible, well-sourced information

* Leave a submission statement that justifies the legitimacy or importance of what you are submitting,

* Ask questions in the megathread, and not as a self post,

* Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

* Submit articles that will be relevant 5-10 years from now, and not ephemeral news stories

​

Please do not:

​

* Use memes, or emojis, excessive swearing, foul imagery,

* Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc,

* Start fights with other commenters,

* Make it personal,

* Try to out someone,

* Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

* Answer or respond directly to the title of an article,

* Submit news updates, or procurement events/sales of defense equipment.

* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

​

Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

Comment guidelines:

​

Please do:

​

* Be curious not judgmental,

* Be polite and civil,

* Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

* Use capitalization,

* Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

* Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

* Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

* Post only credible, well-sourced information

* Leave a submission statement that justifies the legitimacy or importance of what you are submitting,

* Ask questions in the megathread, and not as a self post,

* Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

* Submit articles that will be relevant 5-10 years from now, and not ephemeral news stories

​

Please do not:

​

* Use memes, or emojis, excessive swearing, foul imagery,

* Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc,

* Start fights with other commenters,

* Make it personal,

* Try to out someone,

* Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

* Answer or respond directly to the title of an article,

* Submit news updates, or procurement events/sales of defense equipment.

* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

​

Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

Comment guidelines:

​

Please do:

​

* Be curious not judgmental,

* Be polite and civil,

* Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

* Use capitalization,

* Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

* Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

* Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

* Post only credible, well-sourced information

* Leave a submission statement that justifies the legitimacy or importance of what you are submitting,

* Ask questions in the megathread, and not as a self post,

* Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

* Submit articles that will be relevant 5-10 years from now, and not ephemeral news stories

​

Please do not:

​

* Use memes, or emojis, excessive swearing, foul imagery,

* Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc,

* Start fights with other commenters,

* Make it personal,

* Try to out someone,

* Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

* Answer or respond directly to the title of an article,

* Submit news updates, or procurement events/sales of defense equipment.

* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

​

Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

Comment guidelines:

​

Please do:

​

* Be curious not judgmental,

* Be polite and civil,

* Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

* Use capitalization,

* Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

* Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

* Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

* Post only credible, well-sourced information

* Leave a submission statement that justifies the legitimacy or importance of what you are submitting,

* Ask questions in the megathread, and not as a self post,

* Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

* Submit articles that will be relevant 5-10 years from now, and not ephemeral news stories

​

Please do not:

​

* Use memes, or emojis, excessive swearing, foul imagery,

* Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc,

* Start fights with other commenters,

* Make it personal,

* Try to out someone,

* Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

* Answer or respond directly to the title of an article,

* Submit news updates, or procurement events/sales of defense equipment.

* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

​

Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

Avoiding a Long War - U.S. Policy and the Trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

by Samuel Charap, Miranda Priebe

​

• Russian use of nuclear weapons is a plausible contingency that Washington needs to account for and a hugely important factor in determining the future trajectory of the conflict
• Although a Russian decision to attack a NATO member state is by no means inevitable, the risk is elevated while the conflict in Ukraine is ongoing.
• Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley reportedly kept a list of “U.S. interests and strategic objectives” in the crisis: “No. 1” was “Don’t have a kinetic conflict between the U.S. military and NATO with Russia.” The second, closely related, was “contain war inside the geographical boundaries of Ukraine.”
• It is clear why Milley listed avoiding a Russia-NATO war as the top U.S. priority: The U.S. military would immediately be involved in a hot war with a country that has the world’s largest nuclear arsenal. Keeping a Russia-NATO war below the nuclear threshold would be extremely difficult, particularly given the weakened state of Russia’s conventional military.
• Since neither side appears to have the intention or capabilities to achieve absolute victory, the war will most likely end with some sort of negotiated outcome.
• Since avoiding a long war is the highest priority after minimizing escalation risks, the United States should take steps that make an end to the conflict over the medium term more likely.
• A major source of uncertainty about the future course of the war is the relative lack of clarity about the future of U.S. and allied military assistance to Ukraine.

Samuel Charap is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. His research interests include the foreign policies of Russia and the former Soviet states; European and Eurasian regional security; and U.S.-Russia deterrence, strategic stability, and arms control.

From November 2012 until April 2017, Charap was the senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Prior to joining the IISS, he served at the U.S. Department of State as senior advisor to the undersecretary for Arms Control and International Security and on the Secretary’s Policy Planning Staff, covering Russia and Eurasia. From 2009 to 2011, Charap was director for Russia and Eurasia at the Center for American Progress.

Charap's book on the Ukraine crisis, Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia (coauthored with Timothy Colton), was published in January 2017. His articles have appeared in The Washington Quarterly, Foreign Affairs, Survival, Current History and several other journals.

Charap was a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Moscow Center and the International Center for Policy Studies (Kyiv), and a Fulbright Scholar at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations. He is fluent in Russian and proficient in Ukrainian. Charap holds a Ph.D. in political science and an M.Phil. in Russian and East European studies from the University of Oxford, where he was a Marshall Scholar. He received his B.A. in Russian and political science from Amherst College. He is a life member of the Council on Foreign Relations. 

Miranda Priebe is director of the Center for Analysis of U.S. Grand Strategy and a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation.

Her work at RAND has focused on grand strategy, the future of the international order, effects of U.S. forward presence, military doctrine, history of U.S. military policy, distributed air operations, and multi-domain command and control. She has also conducted research on deterrence, reassurance, threat perceptions, rising powers, alliance politics, and U.S. defense budgets. Priebe received a Ph.D. in political science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. She also received a Master of Public Affairs degree from Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School and S.B. degrees in physics and political science from MIT.

Comment guidelines:

​

Please do:

​

* Be curious not judgmental,

* Be polite and civil,

* Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

* Use capitalization,

* Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

* Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

* Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

* Post only credible, well-sourced information

* Leave a submission statement that justifies the legitimacy or importance of what you are submitting,

* Ask questions in the megathread, and not as a self post,

* Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

* Submit articles that will be relevant 5-10 years from now, and not ephemeral news stories

​

Please do not:

​

* Use memes, or emojis, excessive swearing, foul imagery,

* Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc,

* Start fights with other commenters,

* Make it personal,

* Try to out someone,

* Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

* Answer or respond directly to the title of an article,

* Submit news updates, or procurement events/sales of defense equipment.

* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

​

Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

Comment guidelines:

​

Please do:

​

* Be curious not judgmental,

* Be polite and civil,

* Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

* Use capitalization,

* Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

* Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

* Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

* Post only credible, well-sourced information

* Leave a submission statement that justifies the legitimacy or importance of what you are submitting,

* Ask questions in the megathread, and not as a self post,

* Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

* Submit articles that will be relevant 5-10 years from now, and not ephemeral news stories

​

Please do not:

​

* Use memes, or emojis, excessive swearing, foul imagery,

* Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc,

* Start fights with other commenters,

* Make it personal,

* Try to out someone,

* Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

* Answer or respond directly to the title of an article,

* Submit news updates, or procurement events/sales of defense equipment.

* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

​

Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

Comment guidelines:

​

Please do:

​

* Be curious not judgmental,

* Be polite and civil,

* Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

* Use capitalization,

* Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

* Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

* Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

* Post only credible, well-sourced information

* Leave a submission statement that justifies the legitimacy or importance of what you are submitting,

* Ask questions in the megathread, and not as a self post,

* Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

* Submit articles that will be relevant 5-10 years from now, and not ephemeral news stories

​

Please do not:

​

* Use memes, or emojis, excessive swearing, foul imagery,

* Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc,

* Start fights with other commenters,

* Make it personal,

* Try to out someone,

* Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

* Answer or respond directly to the title of an article,

* Submit news updates, or procurement events/sales of defense equipment.

* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

​

Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

Comment guidelines:

​

Please do:

​

* Be curious not judgmental,

* Be polite and civil,

* Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

* Use capitalization,

* Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

* Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

* Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

* Post only credible, well-sourced information

* Leave a submission statement that justifies the legitimacy or importance of what you are submitting,

* Ask questions in the megathread, and not as a self post,

* Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

* Submit articles that will be relevant 5-10 years from now, and not ephemeral news stories

​

Please do not:

​

* Use memes, or emojis, excessive swearing, foul imagery,

* Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc,

* Start fights with other commenters,

* Make it personal,

* Try to out someone,

* Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

* Answer or respond directly to the title of an article,

* Submit news updates, or procurement events/sales of defense equipment.

* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

​

Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

Comment guidelines:

​

Please do:

​

* Be curious not judgmental,

* Be polite and civil,

* Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

* Use capitalization,

* Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

* Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

* Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

* Post only credible, well-sourced information

* Leave a submission statement that justifies the legitimacy or importance of what you are submitting,

* Ask questions in the megathread, and not as a self post,

* Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

* Submit articles that will be relevant 5-10 years from now, and not ephemeral news stories

​

Please do not:

​

* Use memes, or emojis, excessive swearing, foul imagery,

* Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc,

* Start fights with other commenters,

* Make it personal,

* Try to out someone,

* Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

* Answer or respond directly to the title of an article,

* Submit news updates, or procurement events/sales of defense equipment.

* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

​

Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

Comment guidelines:

​

Please do:

​

* Be curious not judgmental,

* Be polite and civil,

* Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

* Use capitalization,

* Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

* Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

* Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

* Post only credible, well-sourced information

* Leave a submission statement that justifies the legitimacy or importance of what you are submitting,

* Ask questions in the megathread, and not as a self post,

* Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

* Submit articles that will be relevant 5-10 years from now, and not ephemeral news stories

​

Please do not:

​

* Use memes, or emojis, excessive swearing, foul imagery,

* Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc,

* Start fights with other commenters,

* Make it personal,

* Try to out someone,

* Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

* Answer or respond directly to the title of an article,

* Submit news updates, or procurement events/sales of defense equipment.

* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

​

Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

Comment guidelines:

​

Please do:

​

* Be curious not judgmental,

* Be polite and civil,

* Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

* Use capitalization,

* Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

* Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

* Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

* Post only credible, well-sourced information

* Leave a submission statement that justifies the legitimacy or importance of what you are submitting,

* Ask questions in the megathread, and not as a self post,

* Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

* Submit articles that will be relevant 5-10 years from now, and not ephemeral news stories

​

Please do not:

​

* Use memes, or emojis, excessive swearing, foul imagery,

* Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc,

* Start fights with other commenters,

* Make it personal,

* Try to out someone,

* Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

* Answer or respond directly to the title of an article,

* Submit news updates, or procurement events/sales of defense equipment.

* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

​

Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

Comment guidelines:

​

Please do:

​

* Be curious not judgmental,

* Be polite and civil,

* Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

* Use capitalization,

* Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

* Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says,

* Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

* Leave a submission statement that justifies the legitimacy or importnance of what you are submitting,

* Ask questions in the megathread, and not as a self post,

* Contriubte to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

* Submit articles that will be relevant 5-10 years from now, and not ephemeral news stories

​

Please do not:

​

* Use memes, or emojis, excessive swearing, foul imagery,

* Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF etc,

* Start fights with other commenters,

* Make it personal,

* Try to out someone,

* Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section,

* Answer or respond directly to the title of an article,

* Submit news updates, or procurement events/sales of defense equipment.

​

Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

Comment guidelines:

​

Please do:

​

* Be curious not judgmental,

* Be polite and civil,

* Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

* Use capitalization,

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https://youtu.be/MoZv_7KYMkA

WHAT IS THIS? ---------------------------------------------

• An introduction (90min YouTube video) of a summary report of multiple war-games of China amphibious invasion of Taiwan, done by CSIS (civilian think tank)
• 24 games with different conditions were conducted to explore sensitivity of outcome to variations
• A panel discussion of conclusions and recommendations

KEY TAKEAWAYS ---------------------------------------------

Conclusions from war-games

• Invasion is likely to fail, though China would succeed in landing in Taiwan
• Regardless of outcome, heavy losses for all involved: China, Taiwan, US. US will lose several carriers and 100s of aircrafts.
• Conditions that are critical in ensuring eventual Chinese failure: Taiwan must resist US must immediately enter direct combat US must conduct operations from Japan US must have sufficient anti-ship munitions

Panel discussion (guests: ret USAF general, prof Naval Warfare College, CNAS analyst)

• Given possibility of heavy losses, US and Taiwan should focus on deterring China from initiating invasion
• Deterring China involves acquiring capabilities that create large uncertainty in Chinese confidence in victory
• For US: stealth bombers, submarines, stand-off missiles
• For Taiwan: mobile missile launchers, unmanned aerial and surface vehicles
• US navy will have difficulty carrying out their primary role: striking enemy targets
• Panel highlighted vulnerability of USAF assets, which are currently unsheltered and concentrated in few bases. Investments need to be made to address this before the war.
• Panel has expressed concern about readiness of political leaders and population to face a conflict such as the war-games

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