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Given the success of the fortifications put up within and across Ukraine (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65615184), why doesn't Russia nor NATO invest more heavily in heavily fortified trenches with landmines, and other anti-tank obstructions?

I understand it would be expensive, but I see at least a few points in favour of this argument. Firstly, even if partially built, if done so effectively, it may at least allow for a narrowing of possible routes for either side to take in the event of an invasion. Secondly, the very construction of this network, is to some extent a communication of the lack of interest in invading the other side, as whilst it keeps the enemy out, it also keeps you locked in (from a land warfare perspective). Thirdly, although I understand it could be very expensive, the method does appear to have stood the test of time in at least slowing down your opponent.

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Post all materials related to the ongoing Israel-Iran hostilities here.

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Full Article: https://cepa.org/article/want-to-stop-a-russian-invasion-guard-your-airport/

Airports have been a primary target during Russian invasions and military operations. How can countries can deter Russian attacks by defending their major civilian and military airbases?

• When Russia invades other countries, it often begins by seizing a major airport using airborne troops (paratroopers and helicopters). This allows them to airlift in more troops and vehicles for their invasion.
• Some examples of successful Russian airport seizures include Prague in 1968 and Crimea in 2014. However, their attempt to seize Hostomel Airport near Kyiv in 2022 failed after facing resistance from Ukrainian troops.
• Even though the Ukrainians guarding the airport were only 200 conscripts, they managed to delay the Russians long enough for reinforcements to arrive. This showed the flaws in Russia's planning and execution of the operation.
• While defending airports cannot stop a full-scale Russian invasion, it can complicate their plans and offer some level of deterrence. Countries like the Baltic states and Georgia should station troops at major airports near cities to deny Russia an easy foothold.
• Guarding airports does not require a huge military effort, but could force Russia to fight for airbases instead of easily seizing them. This makes invasions riskier and may act as a deterrent against Russian aggression.

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Brief summary today:

• Iran took ship
• Iran launched drones, missiles
• Israel hit Hezbollah
• US, UK shot down drones in Iraq and Syria

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The war in Ukraine has been an eye opener for me especially seeing the gradual shifting and difference in artillery operation.

The West has placed more emphasis on precision (Excalibur, GPS guided HIMARS munitions) while e.g Russia and NK priorities area saturations (Barrages, MLRS saturation of grids squares)

1.What are some of the future developments stemming from today's conflicts? (More rocket vs towed artilleries/SPHs, Technological bottleneck in shell range, more medium ranged ballistic missiles options being available to MLRS platforms like PrSM?)

2.Will future developments see a gradual fusion of both doctrines e.g.guided cluster munitions, DPICM in a peer to peer conflict? (Due to factors like lack of air superiority, Abundant or lack of supply of shells)

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The Diplomatic Path to a Secure Ukraine

by George Beebe and Anatol Lieven

Summary

Conventional wisdom holds that a negotiated end to the Ukraine war is neither possible nor desirable. This belief is false.

It is also extremely dangerous for Ukraine’s future. The war is not trending toward a stable stalemate, but toward Ukraine’s eventual collapse. Russia has corrected many of the problems that plagued its forces during the first year of fighting and adopted an attrition strategy that is gradually exhausting Ukraine’s forces, draining American military stocks, and sapping the West’s political resolve. Sanctions have not crippled Russia’s war effort, and the West cannot fix Ukraine’s acute manpower problems absent direct intervention in the war. Ukraine’s best hope lies in a negotiated settlement that protects its security, minimizes the risks of renewed attacks or escalation, and promotes broader stability in Europe and the world.

Skeptics counter that Russia has no incentive to make meaningful concessions in a war it is increasingly winning. But this belief underestimates the gap between what Russia can accomplish through its own military efforts and what it needs to ensure its broader security and economic prosperity over the longer term. Russia can probably achieve some of its war aims by force, including blocking Ukraine’s membership in NATO and capturing much of the territory it regards as historically and culturally Russian. But Russia cannot conquer, let alone govern, the majority of Ukraine, nor can Russia secure itself against the ongoing threats of Ukrainian sabotage or potential NATO strikes absent a costly permanent military buildup that would undermine its civilian economy. Reducing the deep dependence on China created by the invasion will also sooner or later require Russia to seek some form of détente with the West.

As a result, the United States has significant leverage for bringing Russia to the table and forging verifiable agreements to end the fighting. But this leverage will diminish over time. The United States should therefore quickly challenge Putin to make good on his insistence that Russia is willing to negotiate by publicly supporting calls from China, Brazil, and other key Global South actors for talks to end the war. And to help build trust and bolster dialogue, American officials should reach out to Russian representatives through both formal channels and a strictly confidential “back channel” that would facilitate sensitive discussions. Given deep Russian doubts about U.S. intentions, our outreach will have to include signals that we are prepared to discuss Moscow’s concerns about NATO expansion in the context of a Ukraine settlement.

Ukraine’s best hope lies in a negotiated settlement that protects its security, minimizes the risks of renewed attacks or escalation, and promotes broader stability in Europe and the world.

No settlement will endure unless Ukraine, Russia, and the West all see it as sufficiently serving their interests and as preferable to continued war. But we need not and should not simply trust that all parties will abide by its terms. Moscow and Washington have decades of useful Cold War experience in constructing, implementing, and monitoring a wide range of security agreements despite mutual distrust and broader geopolitical competition. While formidable, the obstacles to success are not insurmountable.

By combining defensive aid to Ukraine with a vigorous diplomatic offensive, the United States could secure independence for the vast bulk of Ukraine, provide a viable path toward its prosperity, and mitigate the dangers of long-term confrontation with Russia in Europe. This would not constitute a complete victory, but it would still be a monumental achievement.

George Beebe

George Beebe spent more than two decades in government as an intelligence analyst, diplomat, and policy advisor, including as director of the CIA’s Russia analysis, director of the CIA’s Open Source Center, and as a staff advisor on Russia matters to Vice President Cheney. His book, The Russia Trap: How Our Shadow War with Russia Could Spiral into Nuclear Catastrophe (St. Martin’s Press, 2019), warned how the United States and Russia could stumble into a dangerous military confrontation. Prior to joining QI, George was Vice President and Director of Studies at the Center for the National Interest and before that he served as president of a technology company that measured the impact of events, issues, and advertising campaigns on audience views. He speaks Russian and German.

Anatol Lieven

*Anatol Lieven directs the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. He was formerly a professor at Georgetown University in Qatar and in the War Studies Department of King’s College London. He also served as a member of the advisory committee of the South Asia Department of the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office and of the academic board of the Valdai discussion club in Russia. He holds a BA and PhD in history and political science from Cambridge University in England.

From 1985 to 1998, Lieven worked as a journalist in South Asia, the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe and covered the wars in Afghanistan, Chechnya and the southern Caucasus. From 2000 to 2007 he worked at think tanks in Washington DC.

Lieven is author of several books on Russia and its neighbors including The Baltic Revolutions: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and the Path to Independence (Yale University Press, 1993), Chechnya: Tombstone of Russian Power? (Yale University Press, 1998), and Ukraine and Russia: A Fraternal Rivalry (US Institute of Peace, 1999). His book Pakistan: A Hard Country (Penguin UK, 2011) is on the official reading lists for US and British diplomats serving in that country. His latest book, Climate Change and the Nation State, was published in March 2020 and in an updated paperback edition in Fall 2021.*

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The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

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Please do:

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The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

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Please do:

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* Be curious not judgmental,

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Comment guidelines:

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Please do:

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* Be curious not judgmental,

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Comment guidelines:

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Please do:

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* Be curious not judgmental,

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* Make it personal,

* Try to out someone,

* Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

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Comment guidelines:

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Please do:

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* Be curious not judgmental,

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* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

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The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

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Please do:

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* Be curious not judgmental,

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* Make it personal,

* Try to out someone,

* Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

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Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

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Please do:

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* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

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The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

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Please do:

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* Be curious not judgmental,

* Be polite and civil,

* Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

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* Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

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Please do not:

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* Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

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* Make it personal,

* Try to out someone,

* Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

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Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

​

Please do:

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* Be curious not judgmental,

* Be polite and civil,

* Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

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* Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

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Please do not:

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* Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

* Use foul imagery,

* Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

* Start fights with other commenters,

* Make it personal,

* Try to out someone,

* Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

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