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As drones increasingly make their way into hot conflicts, battlefield necessities will increase the diversity and rate of production of drone types. I've seen some news stories over the years of large "aircraft-like" drones crashed somewhere behind enemy lines. Surely any military aircraft that crashes behind enemy lines will be analyzed and reverse engineered by that enemy. But in the grand scheme of things, there aren't that many "large drones" compared to what I suspect we'll be seeing in the relatively near future: swarms of thousands of drones operating as a unified attack vector. Somebody somewhere must already be working on this. What happens when thousands (instead of only a few) drones crash behind enemy lines? How do drone users/manufacturers protect all that software/AI-intelligence being built into tomorrow's drones? Losing one or two sophisticated aircraft is one thing--it'd be extremely difficult to rebuild and use. But if you have hundreds or thousands of drones of the same model crashing into your land, isn't there a higher probability that what's broken in one isn't broken in another...so you (the enemy of the force that used the drones against you) can more easily reverse engineer and even rehabilitate the drones and "send them back where they came from" with more/better munitions or maybe even better intelligence? To me, this seems like a "quantity and probability" issue: isn't there a higher probability that the enemy can reverse engineer something if, say, they have access to hundreds or thousands of those "somethings" instead of one or two?

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As a long-time observer of UK defence policy, something has puzzled me for a while. Given our particularly antagonistic relationship with Russia, the UK mainland seems highly vulnerable to SLCM and conventional IRBM attack. For example, the reported range of the ship- and submarine-launched Kalibr allows it to reach every single UK CNI and armed forces base from well north of the GIUK gap. North Sea energy infrastructure, in particular, is even more vulnerable.

However, unlike many other European countries, the UK does not field Patriot, SAMP/T or any other long-ranged GBAD or ABM system, never mind THAAD or Arrow 3. Nor do we possess anywhere near the number of medium-range systems (eg Sky Sabre, even if it actually gets the CAMM-ER or MR missile) or SHORAD to cover all potential high-value targets, as well as defend deployed assets overseas.

Area air defence capabilities are basically limited to six Type 45 destroyers, of which only two or three are currently active and which are also responsible for protecting the fleet at sea, and a handful of Typhoons on quick reaction alert from only two bases.

Neither is there a significant emphasis on preventive ASW: the UK finally received P-8 Poseidons after a decade-long capability gap, but only has nine out of an original 1990s requirement of 21. ASW frigate numbers are also at a historic low, with another early retirement announced last week.

However...

One of the interesting aspects of modern asymmetric deterrence that was highlighted by the Iranian attacks on Israel is that the pressure to respond is driven by the consequences, not the intent. In other words, a successful defence of even a large-scale conventional missile attack limits the likely response to a proportionate one, and thus the risk to the aggressor.

At present, any missile strike would be bound to cause enough damage and casualties to occasion a massive NATO Article 5 response. However, if the UK possessed an Israeli level of IADS capability, I suppose one could argue that this wouldn't be the case - that it would actually give Russia another escalatory and intimidatory option in the hybrid toolbox short of actual war.

TL;DR: help me understand, is the UK's relative lack of missile defence a deliberate deterrence strategy based around escalation denial - and, if so, why do other European NATO countries disagree - or is it just good, old-fashioned UK defence incompetence?

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I am Armenian and a veteran of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh – Azerbaijan war. After Armenia's dramatic loss, I kept wondering: Is there a strategy that Armenia could adopt to make it really difficult to be attacked by adversaries as powerful as Azerbaijan and Turkey?

I came across this: NATO Comprehensive Defense Handbook (Vol. 1, Vol. 2): link.

While there is much to learn from this document, it doesn't fully answer the question: Does it actually work? Any guidance, information, or opinions on this subject would be greatly appreciated.

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Please correct me if I am wrong, but I think that at some point in the 1980's there was a change in US budgets that allowed US corporations to do unsolicited R&D and keep the patents even if selling to the US DoD.

Previously, I think the law was that all corporations and defense contractors were all doing R&D for the DoD, or they were competing for the right to produce items since the R&D was already done by the DoD or on contract for the DoD.

I had heard that this law or change in funding (I believe it was OF## and may have had something to do with the whole RMA being pushed) has led to the numerous issues with failed R&D and procurement issues explaining how older equipment is still being used while newer stuff is being wholly replaced every few years (explaining why old stuff like B-52's, B-1, M-1s. M2's, etc are still in use while new programs are being spun off as excess or unnecessary such as MRAPs, F-22's, LCS, Crusader, etc.

If anyone can help with finding this datapoint, supporting or conflicting information, it would be greatly appreciated.

New report published by RAND

Denial Without Disaster—Keeping a U.S.-China Conflict over Taiwan Under the Nuclear Threshold

^(Full text of the report is in the PDF in the linked article)

Key Findings

• There are many pathways to possible nuclear escalation; nuclear use might result from one that seems far-fetched, so even implausible pathways deserve consideration.
• If fully committed to fighting and winning a war with China, the United States must be prepared for nuclear escalation and place more emphasis on managing these risks.
• U.S. actions could shape the Chinese nuclear threshold for better or worse.
• There will likely be a trade-off among military operational utility, force survivability, and escalation management.
• The single most influential factor under U.S. control for managing escalation is target selection.
• Munitions can have a direct impact on the U.S. military's ability to manage escalation dynamics.
• U.S. joint long-range strike actions that are focused on China could have escalatory drivers for other countries.
• U.S. joint long-range strike activity in the continental United States can still be escalatory even if kinetic strikes are not conducted.

Recommendations

• Prioritize development of a robust denial capability to minimize nuclear escalation across a variety of mainland strike authorizations, including limited or even no strikes.
• Seek to optimize the trade-offs between military operational effectiveness and managing escalation, and pay special attention to Chinese perceptions.
• Develop multiple target sets that accomplish similar high-demand military effects to account for the potential variety of mainland strike authorizations.
• Ensure sufficient bomber force structure to account for a potential U.S. national command authority decision to prioritize escalation management over force survivability.
• Ensure sufficient optimal munitions to better manage escalation dynamics.
• Ensure that the acquisition process considers escalation risks, especially Chinese perceptions, while balancing operational effectiveness, force survivability, and deterrence.
• Weigh the operational benefits of forward basing against the strategic risks.
• Consider establishing an “escalation management center of excellence” at Air Force Global Strike Command to ensure consideration through peacetime force development.
• Ensure that peacetime training considers the implications for shaping Chinese expectations and thus wartime perceptions.
• Ensure that requirements are set to emphasize force survivability as a key way to minimize the possibility of long-range strike becoming a target of Chinese nuclear use.

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Alongside the DoD, the Department of Energy and other agencies have sometimes gone to crazy lengths to verify inventory viability. Just one example is the NIF (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Ignition_Facility), which cost $3.5 billion to construct and required a wide net of somewhat rare experts.

While I believe this (https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57130) CBO estimate includes transporters (aircraft, missiles, and submarines), a substantial amount is still focused on maintaining the actual devices. There are plenty of ballpark estimates that the USA spends ~$50 billion per year on its nuclear arsenal.

Now to the point. Given the USA's level of reinvestment and the lengths it has gone to certify its inventory, how bad of a condition is the Russian Federation's inventory in? For reference, this chart (https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/RUS/russia/military-spending-defense-budget) claims that the Russian Federation has spent roughly that amount (or less) on its entire military! Factor in the Russian economy's notorious reputation for corruption and embezzlement, and the picture doesn't look that good, as funds earmarked for maintenance might have disappeared along the way.

I can see two issues with this. First, the Russian Federation may be reluctant to use its weapons for fear of a device fizzling out (incomplete fission) or even an outright failure that spreads radioactive material over the target area. On that last part it would be humiliating if that should happen. Second, given that I am just some fucking guy on the internet that is wondering this, at least one person in Russia has to also wonder if their inventory might not be 100% on the level. Therefore, the solution would be to use a lot more devices or even multiple systems/missiles to ensure at least a couple go critical. To reinforce, Russia's lack of confidence in its inventory would make it more dangerous as it would be inclined to use more of them per target region just to make sure some of them work.

Aside from the above, I thought it was interesting how many projectiles were in each salvo. High estimates for the RS-26 is a bus with 10 devices, but I counted about 6 salvos, with each salvo having 4~6 impactors. That would definitely give most ABM systems a run for their money on intercepting that mess. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49H34oUm8eQ

One of my AFSCs was as a missile tech working along the glow worms; all I will say is that we stayed busy.

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Obviously the coast guard doesnt train like the navy but hypothetically wouldn't adding missile capacity to the cutters and piggybacking them off a destroyers targeting information be a cheap way to add surface combatants and depth of magazine to the fleet?

I know that nearly 14 months ago, Hamas fighters broke out of Gaza, killed and raped people, and took some hostages. Within a few days the IDF pushed them back into Gaza, and then pushed into the Gaza strip themselves. I then believe the IDF spent a few months capturing all of Gaza city, and the northern half of the strip. Then there was this whole thing about whether or not they would attack Rafah, and I'm not sure if that happened or not.

So what exactly is going on now? The IDF occupies part of but not all of the Gaza strip right? Are they launching offensives or just hold a line? What are the Israeli equivalent of 0311/11B (normal infantry) doing? Do they hold positions while the offensive action is taken by the air force and special forces, or are they routinely going into the strip and getting in fire fights themselves?

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So lot of noise about Russia escalating and launching for the first time ICBMs in the Ukrainian conflict.

What I am wondering is about what happened from the moment an ICBM launch was detected, up to the impact, when it was finally 100% sure a conventional warhead was used.

During that (probably short) span of time, was there anyone in the world pondering if that was a nuclear attack ? If not, how can anyone know which warhead is on an ICBM before impact ?

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Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

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I see in many current wars that each side calls out war crimes (Ukraine v Russia for example), but I don't hear of anything more than "extra sanctions" from countries that already sanctioned either nation in conflict. Is there any heavier impact on the war or war politics by calling out or even manufacturing war crimes on the enemy?

Apologies in advance if this has been asked elsewhere already. I've been loosely following the Zhuhai Airshow (and looking at things like the J-35A) and was inspired to do some digging.

Question here is a two-parter:

• Are there reasonably credible sources that can somewhat evaluate Chinese military aircraft (e.g. J-35A, J-20) and its navy (e.g. Type 055 destroyer, Type 093 submarine). I know the actual performance of these systems within these platforms might not be public but would be good to know + actual military performance depends on a bunch of things)

• I've been reading also about the failure of American startups' drone technology on in the Ukraine war -- are there good sources to look at the actual performance characteristics of platforms of companies like Shield AI, Anduril, etc.

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

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* Clearly separate your opinion from what the source says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

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* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

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Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

Please do:

* Be curious not judgmental,

* Be polite and civil,

* Use capitalization,

* Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

* Clearly separate your opinion from what the source says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

* Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

* Post only credible information

* Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

Please do not:

* Use memes, emojis nor swear,

* Use foul imagery,

* Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF,

* Start fights with other commenters,

* Make it personal,

* Try to out someone,

* Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

​

Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.