SMU vs Bishops

Bishop's has beaten SMU twice already this year albeit by relatively smaller margins (18-11 and 19-14), and have just found a way to win all year. That said, SMU lost both games this year to StFX before taking them out in the semis so maybe they prove for the second time it's hard to beat a team 3 times in one year.

Western vs Laurier

The rematch all Ontario has been waiting for; Laurier wants to avenge last year's Yates Cup, while Western wants to show that this regular season was just a blip. Maybe more than any other game, this will depend on the weather; good weather lets the Laurier passing attack continue to run wild, but crappy weather might favor Western's power game. Current forecast is 12 degrees and clear.

Regina vs Saskatchewan

Carnage in CanWest as the top two seeks both lose, leaving the province of Saskatchewan to determine their winner. Saskatchewan and Regina split their two games this year, both of which were decided by 5 points or less. Pretty much a toss up here, and in reality, whoever wins is probably facing a very daunting task by playing the winner of...

Laval vs Montreal

Same as CanWest, the two teams split their series, with a combined score of 54-54. Is there anything to pick between the two?

The narrative feels like its whoever comes out of Ontario vs whoever comes out of Quebec for the Vanier this year, and for all the fun we have trying to pick upsets, it's hard to pick against that exact scenario playing out.

Anyone watching on oua.tv? No sound? Edit: sound now working.

Also, player on Queen's got his ankle snapped in half on punt return play. Foot was left dangling. Very ugly injury. Didn't catch who it was though. Hoping it wasn't St. Arnault.

Would be a big upset

Concordia over Laval
Acadia over Bishops
McGill over Montreal
Regina over Manitoba
Queens over Laurier

Would be surprising

Guelph over Western
Saskatchewan over UBC

Anything would be possible

StFX vs SMU

Maybe I'm overrating Guelph, but I think they could beat Western if they make it a shootout. Guelph's got enough offense, and who knows how Western reacts if it's close when they haven't played a close game all year.

At the game. Skeltons not playing. Windsors winning 13-9.

Any takers?

I’m not sure if Windsor is the underdog or not- they finished ahead of queens but queens is ranked higher.

Either way, I’m sticking to my guns and predicting a Windsor win lol

Two, count ‘em, Two, ties in the top 4 rankings. I think that all 4 of these teams are pretty evenly matched and one could argue that there’s not much to say that one team is much better or much worse than the other 3 teams right now.

I wonder how long it’s been since there have been 2 AUS teams in the Top 10 at this time of year? Though I really question the ranking of both Bishop’s and St. FX. The inclusion on FX at #10 is solely because of their ELO ranking.

Speaking of ELO, the system still seems to really hate Manitoba. The Bisons at 6-1 sit behinds two 4-3 teams in the ELO rankings.

For some reason, Reddit isn’t letting me post the link to the full standings, but I’m sure you can track it down, or I may come back and post it later.

Let's look at the extremely messy Canada West going into the final week.

1 seed: Will be decided by the Manitoba-UBC game.

• If Manitoba wins, they are the number 1 seed.
• If Manitoba loses by 22 points or less, they are the number 1 seed (H2H record would be 1-1, but Manitoba would have the tiebreak in point differential H2H by beating UBC by 23 earlier in the year)
• If Manitoba loses by exactly 23 points, UBC would be the number 1 seed (H2H record would be 1-1, point differential in H2H games would be even, but UBC would win based on point differential in league games after including the +23 and -23 from the last game)
• If Manitoba loses by 23 points or more, UBC is the number 1 seed (H2H record would be 1-1, but UBC would have the tiebreak in point differential H2H)

2 seed: will be whoever of the above two teams is not the 1 seed. If UBC loses and Saskatchewan wins, they both end up at 5-3, but UBC would win the tiebreak based on their H2H victory over Saskatchewan.

3 seed: will be Saskatchewan; no one below them can catch them, and the only team above them they can catch is UBC who they lose the tiebreak to as described above.

4. seed: Three teams for one spot. Let's talk the simple options first:

• Alberta wins, Calgary loses, Regina loses - Alberta is the only team to get to 3-5. They get the #4 seed.
• Alberta loses, Calgary loses, Regina wins - Regina is the only team to get to 3-5. They get the #4 seed.

Now the slightly more complicated:

• Alberta wins, Calgary wins, Regina loses. Alberta and Calgary are 3-5. Calgary beat Alberta H2H, so Calgary gets the final playoff spot.
• Alberta loses, Calgary wins, Regina wins. Calgary and Regina are 3-5. Calgary and Regina were 1-1 in H2H this year. Second tiebreak is point differential in H2H games: Calgary lost to Regina by 8, then beat Regina by 3, meaning Regina has a +5 point differential in the H2H games, and would win the tiebreak. As a result, Regina would get the final playoff spot. So, despite currently being in last, the only team that actually has a "win and you're in" guarantee is Regina.

Source of tiebreak rules: https://canadawest.org/documents/playingregs/2024-25/Football_2024-25_-September_12-_2024-_FINAL.pdf

Skelton is starting for Windsor. Here we go again.

https://en.usports.ca/sports/fball/2024-25/releases/2024-10-15_Top10

A bunch of the media took the week off. Maybe the CanWest guys forgot the other conferences play on Thanksgiving weekend. There were only four voters.

Montreal takes the top spot and Laval's "loss" dropped them just below Bishop's in ELO and below Western in the top 10.

Last week of the season. Surprise surprise…. I’m taking a chance on Windsor upsetting Western.

If Windsor beats Western on Saturday, that would put Western, Windsor, and Guelph all at 6-2 and we would need a tiebreaker to determine the 2, 3 and 4 seeds between those 3. Western and Guelph didn’t play each other this year, so most of the easy 3-way tiebreakers are out the door. Does anyone know what tiebreaker would be next, or even better what the standings would like if that happens? Thanks everyone

I'll try and break it down as simply as possible:

Rule 1: Ottawa wins, they're in, no matter what.

Rule 2: McMaster wins, they're in, no matter what.

tbh the most likely result is rule 1+2 come to pass.

Now let's go through scenarios in descending order of chaos/likelihood (based on my understanding of the tiebreak rules here https://oua.ca/sports/fball/2024-25/files/regulations

Toronto beats Ottawa, York beats McMaster, Carleton beats Laurier: Ottawa/McMaster/York/Carleton all tied at 3-5

Result: They haven't all played each other so H2H does not come into play. Result: they have only one common opponent that they've all played, which is Toronto. For this scenario to occur, Toronto has to beat Ottawa, while the others have all beaten Toronto, so Ottawa is out.

This takes us back to the top. They all went 1-1 vs each other. Point differential in H2H games would mean Carleton is in as no matter the results, neither York or McMaster can catch them based on points differential.

This takes is back to the top. As a result, it's York by beating McMaster H2H.

Result: Carleton and York get in.

Toronto beats Ottawa, York beats McMaster, Laurier beats Carleton: Ottawa/McMaster/York all tied at 3-5

Result: They haven't all played each other so H2H does not come into play. Next relevant tiebreak is record vs common opponents. All three have played Queens/Toronto/Carleton/Waterloo. McMaster is 3-1 in those games while Ottawa and York would be 2-2, so McMaster is in.

This takes us back to the top. As a result, it's Ottawa by beating York H2H.

Result: McMaster and Ottawa get in.

Toronto beats Ottawa, McMaster beats York, Carleton beats Laurier: Ottawa/Carleton tied at 3-5

Result: McMaster gets in because they won. Ottawa gets in by winning H2H tiebreak over Carleton

Ottawa beats Toronto, York beats McMaster, Carleton beats Laurier: McMaster/York/Carleton all tied at 3-5

Result: Ottawa gets in because they won. Carleton gets in based on points differential in H2H matches; because the max you can get in any individual game is 25 points, this is already mathematically decided.

Ottawa beats Toronto, York beats McMaster, Laurier beats Carleton: McMaster/York tied at 3-5

Result: Ottawa gets in because they won. York gets in by winning H2H tiebreak over McMaster

Tiebreaker Rules

1. AVG • Average • All games • Higher is better

2. W/L Ratio • Win/Loss Ratio • Games between tied and tied teams • Higher is better

3. AVG • Average • Games between tied and tied teams • Higher is better

4. PTS • Standings Points • Games between tied and tied teams • Higher is better

5. PP/PC Ratio • Points for / Points against ratio • Games between tied and tied teams • Higher is better

6. PC • Points against • All games • Lower is better

7. PP/PC Ratio • Points for / Points against ratio • All games • Higher is better

Applying them to Laval-Montréal if both teams win their remaining games :

1- The AVG is tie;

2- The ratio is tie;

3- The AVG between Laval-Mtl is tie;

4- The PTS are tie (1 loss each);

5- The PP/PC ration is tie (both won by 1 pt);

6- The PC is in favor of Laval (they now have ~40 pts against less than Mtl.

7- Not used in this case.

Looks like a lovely fall evening. Go Warriors!

I’m quite happy with the detail the online customization site can allow. A few small inaccuracies but all the teams turned out quite well

I know this isn't really the right subreddit. But there are alot of knowledgeable people here.

Does anyone know how the playoffs for the WHSFL are structured this year?

Last year, the top 7 made the top division with 1st place getting a bye, and then there were two groups of 4 that played in their own bowl series.

This year there is a different # of teams in the league. And the top 8 is going to be super crowded, with Dakota and Oak Park at the top with 7-0 records (projected) and the next 6 teams being 5-2.

https://en.usports.ca/sports/fball/2024-25/releases/2024-10-07_Top10

Windsor is still ranked ahead of Guelph despite Guelph exposing a number of Windsor defence holes.

It doesn't actually look like there will be a ton of drama this year. My prediction with remaining games:

1 seed: Laurier 8-0 (will beat Windsor and Carleton)

2 seed: Western 7-1 (will beat Toronto and Windsor)

3 seed: Guelph 6-2 (will beat York)

4 seed: Windsor 5-3 (will lose to Laurier and Western, but has tiebreak in H2H win over Queens)

5 seed: Queens 5-3 (will beat Waterloo but loses tiebreak due to H2H loss to Windsor)

6/7 seed: Ottawa 4-4 (will beat Toronto)

6/7 seed: McMaster 4-4 (will beat Waterloo and York)

also note that it's still possible York can get in by winning/losing to Guelph, but must beat McMaster in which case McMaster and York both end 3-5, but York wins the H2H tiebreak. Amazing opportunity for that York team to play a game for real stakes.

However, assuming York doesn't pull the upset, the tiebreak for Ottawa and McMaster will be going deep.

Did not play each other so no H2H tiebreak.

Common opponents: Western, York, Waterloo, Queens, Laurier, Carleton, Toronto: both had the same 4-3 records in those games.

Record against other teams: both had 0-1 records against other teams.

Point difference in games within the division: (Keeping in mind that OUA uses a max of 25 point differential for tiebreaks), it's currently:

Ottawa minus 18 point differential

McMaster minus 25 point differential

Legitimately tough to call who will come out ahead there; I expect Ottawa will roll Toronto who I imagine are in "get this season over with mode" and get the full 25 points credit to end up plus 7 point differential. Can McMaster win their two games by 33 points or more to take the 6 seed?

This ends up with playoffs:

Laurier bye

Western vs lower of Ottawa/McMaster

Guelph vs higher of Ottawa/McMaster

Windsor vs Queens

Any takers?

Seems somewhat cut and dry this week. Not even a remote chance at an upset unless someone’s going big and betting on Toronto to upset Western ;))

That was assault brother.

After today's results i think you can come close to writing the Yates cup rematch in pen, and I only think Guelph could disrupt that.

Just tuning in for the second half. Windsor is down by 10.

Anyone watching? Who’s the Windsor qb?

It is a lovely early October day for football. Go Warriors!

Amazing first half by the Dogs on both sides of the ball. 28-3 Huskies at halftime. Really hoping they can hold on in the 2nd half.

https://en.usports.ca/sports/fball/2024-25/releases/2024-10-01_Top10

UBC cracks the top 10.

Top 5 stay the same.

Anyone want to participate? Might be a fun thread.