/r/boxoffice
A place to talk about the box office and the movie business, both domestically and internationally.
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Wiki pages
Common box office questions FAQ
Historical Box Office Data - 1950-1958
AMAs
Essentials
Box Office Pro - best known for their long-range forecasts of domestic openings.
Box Office Report - a source for box office updates, with great pages comparing a movie's opening weekend numbers to its trailer views and preview night results.
Box Office Theory - popular box office forum.
World of KJ - another popular box office forum.
The Trades
Deadline - has the most comprehensive box office analysis of all the trades.
International Box Office
entgroup.cn - reports on the Chinese box office regularly.
Korean Film Council - updates on Korean box office numbers.
InsideKino - mostly german box office though it has admissions and revenue data on a variety of other, mostly European, markets.
[Boxoffice Turkiye](boxofficeturkiye.com) - Turkish Box Office
/r/boxoffice
Just recently Star Wars Episode 1 smashed expectations with its rerelease, the hype around Nolan reached a new peak after the colossal Oppenheimer success and acclaim. In the 10 years after the release Interstellar seems to gain fans and enthusiasts with every day, emerging as a fan favorite for many. Around 12M are left for it to reach $200M at the domestic boxoffice.
It hasn't been updated for weeks, and still at 50m worldwide
#Weekend Box Office (May 10th-12th)
The post holidays weekend naturaly sees sharp drops which are only made worse by Saturday being a work day. Everything falls off a cliff.
Apes opens on top but its not a great opening weekend even with the circumstances going against it.
GxK and KFP4 have made a very good use of the Holidays. The Boy and The Heron less so.
|# | Movie |Gross | %LW|Total Gross|Total Admissions| Weekends :----------- |:-----------|:-----------|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------: 1| Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes|$11.37M |/ |$11.37M |2.01M |1 2| The Last Frenzy |$8.73M |-71% |$71.93M |13.00M |2 3| Twilight of the Warriors |$7.91M |-62% |$61.11M |11.25M |2 4| Police Formed Unit |$3.85M |-84% |$64.68M |11.18M |2 5| Spy X Family |$2.36M |-82% |$36.34M |6.76M |2 6| Howl's Moving Castle |$1.51M |-77% |$19.72M |3.62M |2 7| I love you to the moon and back|$0.30M |-83% |$5.92M |1.07M |2 8| Godzilla X Kong |$0.17M |-94% |$131.58M|22.18M |7 9| The Boy and The Heron |$0.15M |-81% |$108.96M|20.26M |6
#Daily Box Office (May 12th 2024)
The market hits ¥123M/$17M which is up +35% versus yesterday and down -33% versus last week.
Province map of the day:
The Last Frenzy gains 2 more provinces vs Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes.
In Metropolitan cities:
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apess wins Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Chengdu, Nanjing, Wuhan and Shenzhen.
Twilight of The Warriors wins Guangzhou
City tiers:
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes now down to 2nd in T3 as well.
Tier 1: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes>Twilight of the Warriors>The Last Frenzy
Tier 2: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes>The Last Frenzy>Twilight of the Warriors
Tier 3: The Last Frenzy>Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes>Twilight of the Warriors
Tier 4: The Last Frenzy>Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes>Twilight of the Warriors
# | Movie | Gross | %YD | %LW | Screenings | Admisions(Today) | Total Gross | Projected Total Gross |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes | $4.65M | +23% | / | 97424 | 0.82M | $11.37M | $31M-$35M |
2 | The Last Frenzy | $4.14M | +43% | -44% | 81441 | 0.73M | $71.93M | $99M-$102M |
3 | Twilight of the Warriors | $3.50M | +27% | -41% | 71835 | 0.61M | $61.11M | $89M-$98M |
4 | Formed Police Unit | $1.66M | +20% | -67% | 54606 | 0.29M | $64.68M | $73M-$79M |
5 | Spy X Family: Code White | $1.27M | +72% | -54% | 44384 | 0.24M | $36.34M | $39M-$43M |
6 | Howls Moving Castle | $0.80M | +74% | -49% | 18779 | 0.15M | $19.72M | $23M-$24M |
7 | I love you to the moon and back | $0.12M | +10% | -83% | 8312 | 0.02M | $5.92M | $6M-$7M |
9 | Godzilla X Kong | $0.10M | +100% | -83% | 3546 | 0.02M | $131.58M | $131M-$132M |
8 | The Boy and The Heron | $0.08M | +60% | -53% | 2161 | 0.01M | $108.96M | $109M-$110M |
*YD=Yesterday, LW=Last Week, |
Pre-Sales map for tomorrow
The Last Frenzy also gaining ground in pre-sales versus Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes.
https://i.imgur.com/eSTbyqh.png
###Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes scores a $11.37M opening weekend. Even with the circumstances of the impacted weekend its still massively down from Dawn which did $47M and War which opened with around $60M.
For comparison GOTG3 opened with $27M last year with the exact same Saturday work day weekend in May.
Total projections in the low 30M's which would be around Rise's numbers.
Audience Figures:
WoM figures: Maoyan: 9.0(-0.1) , Taopiaopiao: 9.2 , Douban: 6.6(-0.1)
Initial opening weekend gender split leaning Male with around a 59-41 split. Women have however rated the movie higher by quite a big 0.5 point margin.
Age wise its a somewhat balanced split all the way from the early 20's to the 40+ crowd. Ratings wise however its a U shape curve with younger people and older people rating the movie higher while the late 20's early 30's have generaly rated it lower.
|#|FRI|SAT|SUN|MON|TUE|WED|THU|Total| |:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:| |First Week|$2.96M|$3.76M|$4.65|| | | | |$11.37M
Scheduled showings update for Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes for the next few days:
Day | Number of Showings | Presales | Projection |
---|---|---|---|
Today | 98070 | $595k | $4.47M-$4.83M |
Monday | 84828 | $57k | $1.10M-$1.34M |
Tuesday | 48969 | $10k | $1.00M-$1.18M |
###Spy X Family:
Spy X Family scores a $2.36M weekend. Down massively from its Holiday boosted weekend last week.
Could miss $40M if it really falls off from here.
Audience Figures:
WoM figures: Maoyan: 9.3 , Taopiaopiao: 9.5(-0.1) , Douban: 7.4(-0.1)
In its 2nd weekend Spy X Family continues to sway towards women with a 55-45 gender split in their favor. They have also remained more favorable to the movie in ratings with a tiny 0.1 point different.
The movie is predominantly leaning towards people in the 20-30 age bracket. These people have also naturaly been most favorable to the movie in reviews.
|#|TUE|WED|THU|FRI|SAT|SUN|MON|Total| |:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:| |First Week|$4.92M|$7.87M|$6.33M|$5.57M|$4.55M|$2.76M|$0.64M|$32.64M |Second Week|$0.52M|$0.45M|$0.37M|$0.35M|$0.74M|$1.27M| |$36.34M |%± LW|-89%|-94%|-94%|-94%|-84%|-54%|/|/|
Scheduled showings update for Spy X Family for the next few days:
Day | Number of Showings | Presales | Projection |
---|---|---|---|
Today | 44067 | $320k | $1.23M-$1.30M |
Monday | 29663 | $26k | $0.19M-$0.22M |
Tuesday | 17144 | $4k | $0.17M-$0.20M |
###Howls Moving Castle:
Howls Moving Castle also drops but less than Spy X Family. It should cross $20M on Tuesday.
Audience Figures:
WoM figures: Maoyan: 9.7 , Taopiaopiao: 9.6 , Douban: 9.1
Howl's Moving Castle remains very women skewed with a 65-35 gender split in their favor. Women have also remained more favorable to the movie by a 0.2 margin.
Continues to be dominated by people under 30 who have also rated the movie the highest with a 9.7 average.
|#|TUE|WED|THU|FRI|SAT|SUN|MON|Total| |:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:| |First Week|$2.51M|$4.47M|$3.08M|$2.72M|$2.37M|$1.58M|$0.44M|$17.17M |Second Week|$0.38M|$0.35M|$0.31M|$0.25M|$0.46M |$0.80M| |$19.72M |%± LW|-85%|-92%|-90%|-91%|-80% |-49%|/|/|
Scheduled showings update for Howls Moving Castle for the next few days:
Day | Number of Showings | Presales | Projection |
---|---|---|---|
Today | 18549 | $216k | $0.81M-$0.99M |
Monday | 17223 | $28k | $0.16M-$0.19M |
Tuesday | 9933 | $4k | $0.15M-$0.18M |
###The Last Frenzy
The Last Frenzy comes in 2nd for the weekend. Not quite hitting $9M for the weekend but still doing fairly well. It has now crossed $70M and 13M admissions and looks like the only movie from the Labour Day lineup that could end up pushing for $100M
Audience Figures:
WoM figures: Maoyan: 9.2(-0.1) , Taopiaopiao: 8.9(-0.2) , Douban: 5.9(-0.2)
After the 2nd weekend The Last Frenzy's gender split remains in favor of Women with the same 52-48 split as last week. Women have continued to rate the movie more favorable by a 0.2-0.3 point margin.
Age brackets wise it remains dominated by the 20-30 brackets but also has a significant portion of older brackets pulling 15%. It remains almost non existent with under 20's which make up just a 2-3% margin. People in their 30's have rated the movie the best.
|#|WED|THU|FRI|SAT|SUN|MON|TUE|Total| |:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:| |First Week|$11.98M|$11.98M |$11.63M|$10.99M|$7.45M|$2.84M|$2.41M|$59.28M |Second Week|$2.08M|$1.84M|$1.70M|$2.89M|$4.14M| | |$71.93M |%± LW|-82%|-85%|-85%|-74%|-44%|/|/|/|
Scheduled showings update for The Last Frenzy for the next few days:
Day | Number of Showings | Presales | Projection |
---|---|---|---|
Today | 81074 | $345k | $4.14M-$4.67M |
Monday | 77978 | $46k | $1.49M-$1.53M |
Tuesday | 43860 | $5k | $1.31M-$1.38M |
###Twilight of The Warriors
Twilight of The Warriors has to settle for 3rd. it has now crossed $60M but has in the last days unexpectedly fallen behind The Last Frenzy.
Just missed $8M for the weekend.
Audience Figures:
After the 2nd weekend Twilight of the Warriors remains faily highly rated. Still sways male with a 54-46 split. Women however have given the movie a more favorable review by a 0.3 point rating on average.
Age groups wise it sways a bit younger than The Last Frenzy. Ratings wise its very consistent across the age groups with only a 0.1 variation across the under 20's to the over 40's.
Scores: Maoyan: 9.3(-0.1) , Taopiaopiao: 9.4(-0.1) , Douban: 7.4(-0.1)
|#|WED|THU|FRI|SAT|SUN|MON|TUE|Total| |:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:| |First Week|$6.91M($15.67M) |$7.08M|$7.37M|$7.65M|$5.92M|$2.89M|$2.51M|$49.09M |Second Week|$2.17M|$1.94M|$1.67M|$2.74M|$3.50M| | |$61.11M |%± LW|-69%|-73%|-77%|-77%|-41%|/|/|/|
Scheduled showings update for Twilight of The Warriors for the next few days:
Day | Number of Showings | Presales | Projection |
---|---|---|---|
Today | 71844 | $270k | $3.72M-$4.11M |
Monday | 68458 | $47k | $1.40M-$1.45M |
Tuesday | 39616 | $9k | $1.25M-$1.29M |
#Other stuff:
The next holywood releases currently scheduled are Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes on May 10th, The Fall Guy on May 17th, Inside Out on June 21st and Despicable Me 4 on July 12th
Civil War has been aproved and will release this year. Likely targeting a June release.
Some rumors suggest Garfield could release around Childers Day on the 1st of June.
On the Japanese front with Spy X Family and Howl's Moving Castle now out Doraemon 43 is next on the list with a confirmed May 31st release which was expected as its right on the verge of Children's Day on June 1st.
Haikyu!! The Movie: Decisive Battle at the Garbage Dump will release on the 15th June.
My Next Life as a Villainess: All Routes Lead to Doom! The Movie will also release at some point.
So loads of Japanese content ariving to China in the next month and a bit.
#Release Schedule:
A table including upcoming movies in the next month alongside trailers linked in the name of the movie, Want To See data from both Maoyan and Taopiaopiao alongside the Gender split and genre.
Remember Want To See is not pre-sales. Its just an anticipation metric. A checkbox of sorts saying your interested in an upcoming movie.
Not all movies are included since a lot are just too small to be worth covering.
520 Day(May 20th):
The 20th of May is seen by many as an unofficial Valentines Day. Which means a lot of romance/drama coming out to make use of the date. Given its linked to a weekend this year many are using the chance to release as early as Friday to then link it to the Monday.
| Movie |Maoyan WTS|Daily Increase| Taopiaopiao WTS|Daily Increase|M/W %|Genre|Release Date :----------- |:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:| Hovering Blade |86k |+2k |42k |+1k|37/63|Action|17.05 You Are By My Side |28k |+735 |7k |+170|36/64|Drama/Romance|17.05 Strangers When We Met |22k |+1k |47k |+2k|38/62|Drama/Crime|17.05 The Fall Guy |16k |+245 |19k |+220|49/51|Action|17.05 Even If This Love Dissapears |39k |+2k |16k |+575|28/72|Drama/Romance|18.05 April Come She Will |20k |+704 |14k |+500|41/59|Drama/Romance|18.05 18x2 Beyond Youthfull Days |74k |+5k |23k |+835|34/66|Drama/Romance|19.05 Nobody But You |136k |+554 |48k |+175|44/54|Drama/Romance|20.05
Childrens Day:(June 1st)
Childrens Day is more official with Children under 14 getting half a day off. It mostly sees the release of a few animated movies and this year should be no different with Doraemon releasing on the date alongside a local animation.
There will probably be atleast a few more movies scheduled for that weekend including potentialy Garfield.
| Movie |Maoyan WTS|Daily Increase| Taopiaopiao WTS|Daily Increase|M/W %|Genre|Release Date :----------- |:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:| Doraemon 43 |156k |+4k |29k |+720|52/48|Animation|31.05 The Adventure with Dragon |3k |+260 |2k |+89|52/48|Animation|01.06
Dragon Boat Festival(June 10th):
The Dragon Boat Festival lands on a Monday this year which means its gonna be a single day holiday linked to the weekend.
| Movie |Maoyan WTS|Daily Increase| Taopiaopiao WTS|Daily Increase|M/W %|Genre|Release Date :----------- |:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:| Walk The Line |112k |+1k |56k |+1k|34/66|Comedy/Crime|08.06 Gold or Shit |15k |+1k |38k |+3k|60/40|Comedy/Family|08.06 Be My Friend |51k |+4k |9k |+780|30/70|Drama/Comedy|08.06 Crisis Negotiators |4k |+850 |6k |+1k|41/59|Drama|08.06
June:
| Movie |Maoyan WTS|Daily Increase| Taopiaopiao WTS|Daily Increase|M/W %|Genre|Release Date :----------- |:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:| Haikyu!! The Movie: Decisive Battle at the Garbage Dump |181k |+2k |97k |+1k|36/64|Animation|15.06 Inside Out 2 |37k |+2k |25k |+1k|29/71|Animation|21.06
I recently did a Youtube video about this year's summer box office & some predictions. I set some over/unders and I was curious to see people's predictions! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtYpL5sX84w
A Quiet Place Day One. Over/Under: $160 Million Domestically? The line is set at $160 Million as that was the domestic gross of A Quiet Place Part 2.
Horizon: An American Saga Chapter One. Over/Under: $93 Million Domestically? The line is set at $93 Million as the last big western I could think of (The Magnificent Seven (2016)) grossed that number domestically.
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. Over/Under: $153 Million Domestically? The line is set at $153 million as that was the domestic gross of Mad Max: Fury Road.
The Garfield Movie. Over/Under $130 Million Domestically? The line is set at $130 million as that was the domestic gross of The Peanuts Movie and I felt that this film based on a cartoon strip was operating to a similar audience.
Bad Boys Ride or Die. Over/Under $179 Million Domestically? The line is set at $179 million as that was the domestic gross of the last pure Will Smith led franchise vehicle released in the summer, Men in Black 3.
Twisters. Over/Under $155 Million Domestically? The line is set at this number as I was trying to think of the last pure disaster movie released in the summer, and my mind went to San Andres (2015) which grossed $155 million domestically. Doomers/doubters may see this film performing more similar to another 90s sequel of a disaster movie Independence Day Resurgence which grossed $104 million domestically.
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes. Over/Under $177 Million domestically? The line is set at $177 million as that was the domestic gross of Rise of the Planet of the Apes. I chose Rise and not War, as I felt War came out in a really completive summer, where Kingdom has more space to operate with The Fall Guy flopping.
Despicable Me 4. Over/Under $370 Million domestically? The line is set at $370 million as this was the domestic gross of Minions: The Rise of Gru.
Deadpool & Wolverine. Over/Under $411 Million domestically? The line is set at $411 million because Disney/MCU is hoping for a near billion dollar movie, thus I set the line to the film that came closest to that in the past few years: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness.
1) Inside Out 2. Over/Under $434 Million domestically? The line is set at $434 million as this was the domestic gross of Toy Story 4.
The RoundUp Punishment has a pretty meh 60% drop but the good news is that it should certainly crush 11 million admits. It will be interesting to see if the movie will suffer from the many opening that comes out the 15th.
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: It has came back from opening day as it finished with 3.1 million dollars for its opening which is 28% of War's opening. Should clear 5 million dollars but it is guaranteed to be the lowest movie in the series in SK.
KP4: A 74% collapse from a holiday driven last weekend. It is the lowest entry into the Panda-Universe in SK.
Last 10 years: A 22% increase as the movie seems to be a really popular date night movie. Pretty successful re-release.
Fall Guy: A nasty 76% drop as the movie crossed over 200k admits. Going to fall short of two million dollars
Exhuma: Comes back fighting with a solid 40% drop as it will cross 11.9 million admits in the next few days. Too bad we missed out on the 12 million admits total.
Challengers: An excellent 14% drop as the movie is having some legs. It will likely hemorrhage screens with all the new releases.
Dune 2: A 48% drop as it is still holding onto screens. It just needs a 1k admits to hit 2 million admits.
New releases this week
Haikyuu looking strong with nearly a 100k in presales. The CGV site has it as 35% of seats are booked.
Garfield: Looks a good bit smaller with 10% of seats booked in CGV sites. Should be around 30k in presales using Haikyuu as a base.
IF looks bad with only .5% but that makes sense as it seems to be a movie that will do a lot better in the western hemisphere.