1. Independence Day(1996) ~ 69M
2. Men In Black(1997) ~ 54M
3. I Am Legend(2007) ~ 36M
4. Aladdin(2019) ~ 35M
5. Suicide Squad(2016) ~35M
6. Men In Black II(2002) ~ 32M
7. Hancock(2008) ~ 31M
8. Hitch(2007) ~ 28M
9. The Pursuit Of Happyness(2006) ~ 24M
10. I, Robot(2004) ~ 23M

Source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/franchise/Marvel-Cinematic-Universe

So Red One releases (domestically) this weekend and next week is GliCked and then Moana 2 which will put us officially in the big Holiday season. Things are likely to get legs and overperform expectations as they did last year with Wonka, Anyone but You, and even Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom to a certain extent. Which means now we look to the future...

It seems that since the pandemic ended for every big budget release that meets the expectations of being a huge money maker like Avatar: The Way of Water, Super Mario Bros., or Deadpool & Wolverine, every year there's been one movie that exceeds expectations.

People expect it to be successful and at least be profitable but no one would've forseen just how massive it would be. Whether it's Top Gun: Maverick, Barbie, Oppenheimer, or this year's Inside Out 2, there's always that one movie that catches EVERYONE off guard by just how massive it is. And to be fair, it's not just this decade: I don't think anyone expected an elseworlds Joaquin Phoenix Joker movie in the vein of a 70s Scorsese flick to be a billion dollar grosser, or that superheroes like Aquaman and the Guardians of the Galaxy would front some of the biggest superhero movies of the last decade, or the lightning in a bottle successes of the live-action Alice in Wonderland and Jungle Book movie?

So what film do you think will overexceed expectations. Keep in mind, it can still be a movie that most people think will be a hit and just massively overperform to an insane degree like Inside Out 2. And in line with all the movies I mentioned above: you have to be confident it will minimum make $900M-$1B.

I'll go ahead and put my head on the line to say Superman will be the biggest movie of the summer next year. Yes, even more than the next Jurassic World, and the (possibly?) Final Mission: Impossible movie. I think we do see this as the first DC movie since Aquaman to make $1B.

BoxOfficeTheory Presale Tracking

Presales Data (Google Sheets Link)

BoxOfficeReport Previews

Quorum Updates:

• Nov. 13

• Nov. 11

• Nov. 6

• Nov. 4

• Nov. 1

Red One Average Thursday Comp: $2.32M

• Charlie Jatinder (Could be $800K+ EA. It can be tough to lock EA with smaller sample (Nov. 10).)

• crazymoviekid ($3.66M THU and $7.91M FRI Comp. Pretty hefty drop in FRI comps. Going for $7M-$9M rn | THU comps even more uneven. Going for $3.5M (Nov. 13). FRI might be a little inflated due to a bday at Theater 2, but would be confident at $9M-$11M. | THU has stronger chance of staying in that $3M-$4M range (Nov. 12). Best looking $3M-$4M THU with a chance of lower (Nov. 11).)

• el sid ($2.05M THU and $9.45M FRI Comp. Red One, counted yesterday for Friday had 301 sold tickets. Best presales in the AMCs in San Francisco and NY. Good but not very telling in a genre where presales don't matter that much. | Red One, counted today for Thursday had ok 312 sold tickets (with shows in all 7 theaters). Pretty even sales in the 4 bigger theaters, each time ~80-90 sold tickets. Only in the AMC in Miami it looks worse (48 sold tickets). It has combined 51 shows so at least it won't get capacity problems. Comps (always counted on Tuesday of the release week for Thursday): JWD (18M from previews) had 3.483 sold tickets = 1.6M. Super Pets (2.2M) had 271 = 2.55M. And Violent Night (1.1M) had 122 sold tickets in 6 theaters (so here vs 230 for Red One) = 2.05M. [Garfield (1.9M from two days) had on Wednesday of the release week 173 sold tickets.]. Average: 2.05M for Red One true Thursday = without EA numbers. I think JWD is an a bit unfair comp because this is an original film so at the moment it would be 3M+ (Thursday + EA) judging from my theaters. Friday presales soon, they look quite good, better than those for Thursday (Nov. 12). (Early Access) had, counted today for today, good 608 sold tickets in my 4 bigger AMCs (in NY, Miami, San Francisco and LA). My not too helpful comps: Death on the Nile (12.9M OW) had on Wednesday of the release week for its EA shows on the same day 289 sold tickets (also in 4 theaters). And IF (33.7M OW) had on Thursday of the release week for its previews 421 sold tickets (in 7 theaters) and 627 sold tickets on Friday of the release week for Friday (also in 7 theaters). Not bad for Red One. So overall it looks similar in my theaters as reported here: Red One's presales today are encouraging and the presales for Thursday and Friday slightly improved but still are modest. Maybe WOM helps (Nov. 10). I had a short look at the presales of Red One. Its sales slightly increased but still no real acceleration (Nov. 4).)

• filmlover (Red One's sales for the early shows today are looking big near me, and the sales for next weekend seem solid too. Wouldn't be surprised if it ends up opening in the same $30M+ area that Central Intelligence did (Nov. 10).)

• Flip ($2.02M THU and $5.92M FRI Comp. Fridays going marginally better than previews. | THU not doing too well (Nov. 12). Fridays going nicely as well. Still thinking 24-28m OW. | Good growth; maybe it can head towards 2.7m by Thu (Nov. 12). Probably low-mid 20s OW (Nov. 10). Floppity flop flop (Nov. 8).)

• jeffthehat ($2.17M THU Comp.)

• JimmyB (Seeing Red One in an hour. EA, show is almost sold out. But, that's not unusual for EA. Fly me to the Moon EA was almost sold out at the same theater. Thursday shows are almost all empty and start at 2:00pm. The prime 7:05 showing Thursday has 2 tickets sold. Only one Theater but looking around at other Jacksonville theaters almost all the Thursday shows are empty (Nov. 10).)

• liliane12 (Red One’s EA presales for Nov 10th are doing quite well in my area (eastern Canada). 15 theatres (one showtime each): 509 tickets sold (Nov 9th) (Nov. 10).)

• misterpepp (I actually don't think audience WoM will be too far off from IF, either. EA may be skewing it, but the verified RT audience score under-the-Inspect-Element-hood is sitting at 96% right now, even if it dips a bit I think it'll still stay in the A/A- CinemaScore range (Nov. 13).)

• Ryan C (Pace is about the same compared to yesterday, but this still isn't encouraging. If it increases by 20% again tomorrow, it will just miss out on selling over 1,000 seats. It's gotta do a bit better than that, but I'm not seeing it. Unless a miracle happens, this probably won't get much higher than $20M in its opening or $2M in its previews. It could very well be lower if things don't improve by tomorrow (Nov. 13). At first glance, a 20% increase from the previous day doesn't seem that bad, but in this case, none of this is convincing me that this will break out in any significant way. The increase is largely attributed to a few select theaters doing better in sales than a lot of the others and that's with a recent addition of more showtimes being added. If it can manage to sell more than 1,000 seats in all 16 theaters by the time the first previews start on Tuesday (2:00 PM), maybe things will look up. As of right now though, it's not pacing strong enough for me to say with certainty that will happen. Feeling a low $20M opening with this one, but wouldn't be shocked if it went lower (Nov. 12). For THU so far things are not looking so good. Sales are pretty weak in almost all of the theaters I tracked (even with a full PLF/IMAX footprint) and though this isn't the kind of movie that you would buy tickets for right away, none of this is encouraging in any way. Hopefully this will pick up some steam these next few days. If not, it's gonna have to rely on walk-up business to bail it out. Even then, I don't know if opening to $40M (the absolute best case scenario) is good enough when this has a $250M budget (Nov. 11).)

• Sailor ($1.70M THU Heretic Comp. And for comparison's sake, I want to use Heretic just to see how is Red One doing. I'm using it because it's the one track with the most tickets I have so far. Not the best comp, I know. What concerns me here, however, is the fact that yesterday, it sold 94 tickets, while it sold just 54 today. That's just weird. Not good at all for a $250 million movie (Nov. 13). While Red One has been seeing some progress, I still don't see a breakout here (Nov. 5). Third day of tracking. I assume Halloween slowed things (Nov. 1).)

• Unfitclock (I don’t know if anyone else has been looking but red one seems to be selling extremely well tomorrow (Nov. 9).)

• vafrow (THU: 65 tickets sold. Decent trajectory, but still nothing too exciting. It is ahead of IF, but that did so poorly in market i tend to not use the comp (Nov. 13). THU previews had 38 tickets sold across my five theatre radius. Just nowhere near the scale of other big budget films. It's doing a bit better than Borderlands 25 tickets sold as the best thing I can say about it (Nov. 11).)

Bonhoeffer: Pastor. Spy. Assassin

• PlatnumRoyce (On their portal side, they're claiming 102,215k tickets sold. I'm assuming it's a total tickets sold estimate but it's unclear to me how up to date you'd be on the non portal side (Nov. 12). Early Access: There are 101 theaters offering this showing of which 93 are sold out. So that's ~60-75k seats redeemed at $11 a ticket or ~750k in EA rolled into opening day? Free is free so it's hard to compare but the fact they're confident enough in PiF revenue for this is also interesting. Going a little off topic, there's also a clear push for "partner theaters" which offer discounts (15% on weekdays during opening week +15% off on matinees on the weekend), coupons, Flexible Booking, and Guild ticket redemptions. Only available at Angel.com. No one describes the "Angel Guild" as a streaming service...but it sort of is one so this looks a lot to me like "Prime subscribers get a discount to see Red One on weekdays" (or at least a version of red one that's closer to what amazon envisioned) (Nov. 8).)

• TwoMisfits (Something to consider for flyover country and Gladiator. At my movie yesterday, I found out Angel Studios is releasing Bonhoeffer (a WWII movie) over the same Wicked/Gladiator weekend. So, I looked at my theater today and yes, it is taking a screen, and yes, it has a decent amount of presales. Since I never saw free tickets for this one (although I am seeing sale ones), these are real buys all through that weekend. This movie and Gladiator 2 are bound to have similar appeal in flyover country. So, maybe tick down Gladiator thoughts a touch. I doubt this opens more than $8-10 M, tops...but all of that money is probably at the expense of Gladiator walk ups (since these folks will not be twice/weekend movie goers)... It's not often a movie (that actually has sold a few tickets) gets completely by me til less than 2 weeks out (Nov. 10).)

Gladiator 2 Average Thursday Comp: $10.85M

• Flip ($14.80M THU and $30.41M FRI comp. Continues to drop but that was expected with how good the first few weeks were. I think in the end the BB4 comp ($18.27M THU) will accurately represent where previews will finish (Nov. 12). Hopefully there’s a boost tomorrow because otherwise the comps will continue to drop (Nov. 10). FRI pace is slightly better than previews, but still not good. | Worse pace than Joker for THU… reviews need to give this a strong boost (Nov. 8). Hopefully more showtimes are added but it makes sense why they aren’t due to the crunch with Wicked being the bigger movie. Over the weekend I think it will sell 25+ tickets. | Just to be clear this Joker comp is the lowest I can see it going. This mark is a fair bit ahead of Beetlejuice T-18, with 18 less shows, so that’s impressive (Nov. 1).)

• M37 (This older audience --> good walk-ups misconception really needs to die. Older audiences are more patient, less of an urgency, but that does not mean better walk-ups. That is, they are a later buying crowd, as in later in the run of the film, higher IMs and better legs, but note LATE BUYING as in 5 minutes before (or even after) showtime, as we think of with such genres as like horror or even just casual audiences more broadly. In fact, the opposite can often be true, as older moviegoes (those that have not been pushed away by the rise of reserved seating, online ticketing, loud sound systems, and of course the pandemic), often plan ahead, buying tickets days before the younger counterparts do for the same show. We saw this exact scenario with Elvis, and before that NTTD, with solid presales for a high profile films, but a lackluster final week push that left many "dissapointed" in lack of walk-ups ... and honestly I won't be surprised if that cycle repeats here (Nov. 1).)

• Ryan C (Not much of a better increase this week compared to last week. This puts a lot more pressure on this upcoming weekend (and walk-ups) to deliver or else this won't open as high as we all hoped it would. I'm still feeling this will come in with at least a low $60M opening, but that won't look too good against the gargantuan budget this film has. There is still a chance that ticket sales will accelerate strongly in its final week (which I'll be tracking day by day starting Monday), but so far, nothing (even the generally good reception it's been getting so far) is telling me this will that massive. We'll see, but to avoid being disappointed, I'll be dialing back my expectations on this film a bit (Nov. 13). Anyways, this was a pretty weak increase compared to last week, but it's expected given what the world has been focusing on recently. I expect a much better percentage increase next week as we get closer to the release date. I'll be looking out for how many more showtimes (PLF or not) this will get because that should be fun determining whether this'll be walk-up heavy or not. Still leaning towards yes, but I'm not as optimistic about it as I was a few weeks ago (Nov. 6).)

• Sailor (Gladiator II is still not showing breakout signs, I'm getting worried (Nov. 13). The good reviews didn't seem to give a bump to Gladiator II. It was just another normal day for it (Nov. 12). Gladiator II has been slowing down the past few days. It started selling almost as many tickets as Wicked on a daily base, but now it's falling far behind that (Nov. 5). Third day of tracking. I assume Halloween slowed things (Nov. 1).)

• Shawn Robbins (The biggest variable with using Oppenheimer as a comp for Gladiator II is the Nolan fan base which drove those early sales. Scott and this IP don't carry the same rush of "must buy tickets immediately" which makes G2's pacing so far fairly impressive, IMO (Nov. 1).)

• TheFlatLannister ($7.06M THU Comp. Still looks like around $7M previews to me. Doing okayish (Nov. 11). I have seen no indications that Gladiator will get anywhere close to $85M, let alone $100M (Nov. 1).)

• TwoMisfits (NEW Atom/TMobile deal coming Nov 19 for Gladiator 2 - BUT this is only a $5 OFF deal, not a $5 only deal...will it be enough to move the needle for what seems like the 2nd/3rd choice for the holiday? We'll see. I guess they had to do something to compete with Wicked's wide BOGO deal (Nov. 5).)

• vafrow ($10.7M THU Comp. It's staying pretty steady, but lack of a great comp still makes it hard to read. Romulus is probably the best gauge here. But that seemed to underindex here a bit so probably good for pace but it's likely an inflated number (Nov. 13). The VIP sales are driving growth here too, just not to the same extent as Wicked. Comps are falling but the comps are probably inflated overall, so we'll need to see how it settles in the final week (Nov. 11). Growth has been good the last couple of days. The question remains is wjat type of final week does it have (Nov. 10). Growth is staying fairly stagnant. I'm still really uncertain on this one. The comps don't tell the story, but there aren't enough similar films in my set that had good starts. On paper, I thought Bad Boys should have been good. Sequels to old franchises. Star driven. Different genre, but feels like the crowd overlaps. But very different growth trajectories that are hard to line up. Anyways, I was hoping we'd see things turn a bit around now (Nov. 8). Again, not much going on at this stage. We'll probably only start seeing activity in the final week or so at this stage (Nov. 3).)

Wicked Average Thursday Comp excluding Flip: $15.51M

• AnthonyJPHer (I’m not tracking Wicked, but I did a count a couple days ago for Thursday previews and it’s selling strong. 1,530 tickets sold as of November 6. Probably more now. what surprised me though was that the theater nearest to me has sold 105 tickets, which is unusual considering my theater is definitely more walkup heavy. Even Moana hasn’t reach 100 tickets in this particular theater. Thats a good sign (Nov. 13).)

• Caption Action 3 (Open caption pre-sales update. Seeing a definite uptick in advance sales for open caption screenings, with the zero sold percentage having a solid drop. All the data is now for AMC only; no Cinemarks have open caption screenings posted for Wicked yet. Expecting this to reach at least 5.00 ticket to screentime ratio by next Sunday (Nov. 9).)

• Charlie Jatinder (MTC2 $16.5M THU Comp. Sub-$100M looked quite likely a couple days back but the last three days have seen strong trend now making it safe to be $100M+ (Nov. 13).)

• filmlover (There doesn't seem to be indicating much that it'll be especially frontloaded since it's selling well across the whole weekend. My show for that Saturday has already filled up nearly all the best seats. Another The Color Purple this won't be (Nov. 13).)

• Flip ($38.85M THU and $55.91M FRI Comp. FRI is 2.72x Gladiator 2 (Nov. 10). (2.64x Gladiator 2) $100m is locked (Nov. 1).)

• katnisscinnaplex (I'm seeing 3,263 early shows on Wednesday, which is the second most of any EA I've tracked over the last three years. The highest was actually for Clifford, which I think had a full day of shows (7,656) on Tuesday 11/9/21. Next up would be Jesus Revolution (2,922) and Downton (2,804) which were both extremely presale heavy. MTC1 - 1,247 (536 TC). MTC2 - 550 (297). MTC3 - 676 (416) (Nov. 13).)

• keysersoze123 (it is playing everywhere including Canada. I am sure MTC1 ratio will be very high for sure. 50% ratio means it can target 4.5m+ for just Wednesday. Dont know how many shows are for Amazon early screening on Monday but I see multiple shows per theater for that and I see that across MTC as well. May be another 1.5m ish for that day. Plus thursday itself is looking at mid teens at this point. That is a crazy number overall (Nov. 13). Its going to have the biggest early shows BO I have ever tracked. its release on wednesday is huge. I see over 1300 shows just between 2 MTC(getting the ticket sales data is sadly PITA). | I still dont have most important data completely but whatever I could see, Wicked is a uber blockbuster domestically. Its not just doing well in certain markets. Its looks strong everywhere. While Glicked may not be Barbenheimer, Wicked looks like Barbie 2.0 to me. its definitely amping up big time (Nov. 13). Wicked has fandango BOGO deal for Xfinity members (Nov. 1).)

• Ryan C (For both days, theaters continue to add more and more showtimes. Between that and the fact that we're just over a week away from its release are why there is a noticeable bump in sales compared to last week. Though considering how much this has sold already, this is really impressive! Everything continues to point towards an opening over $100M. I'm hoping to see this one clear 10,000 seats sold on both Wednesday and Thursday (which would also add to over 20,000 Seats Sold in 16 Theaters), but even if it doesn't, it won't make the amount of tickets this has sold any less impressive. Bumping up my Thursday preview prediction for $15M-$17.5M and I'll give a Wednesday EA screening prediction of $5M-6M. Maybe that's too optimistic, but with everything that I'm seeing for this right now, these numbers are looking more achievable (Nov. 13). Much like with Gladiator II, I wasn't expecting much of an bump in sales since I last tracked this, but I will say that this is slightly better than I expected. More showtimes are being added to the EA screenings (which is why the percentage is significantlt higher compared to last week) and pace is about the same with the regular Thursday previews. I expect the percentage to be a bit higher next week before it fully starts to accelerate on the week of its release. Overall, it's still doing well and unless something goes horribly wrong, I wouldn't expect anything less than a $100M opening for this. That, and a preview number in which (if we're just talking Thursday) it will easily be a bit higher than $10M. As always, word-of-mouth and walk-up business will determine if this goes even higher than where I'm seeing it right now (Nov. 6).)

• Sailor (Wicked is not slowing down in the slightest (Nov. 13). Not much to say about Wicked, except it finally cracked 1000 tickets. Exactly 1000 tickets! (Nov. 5). Third day of tracking. I assume Halloween slowed things (Nov. 1).)

• TheFlatLannister ($13.33M THU Comp. Continues very great sales. Probably headed for mid teens previews not including EA (Nov. 11).)

• Tinalera (Vancouver doing some good growth here, Calgary a bit slower, but probably people now starting to figure out their Chrristmas shopping budgets and seeing about accounting for Wicked now (Nov. 6).)

• TwoMisfits (Live Xfinity Rewards BOGO on Fandango for Wicked...in case the needle moves a lot today (Nov. 1).)

• vafrow ($3.6M EA and $16.7M THU Comp. I no longer can get a chain wide view of showtimes easily in MTC4, but within the southern Ontario area, it's in about 60% of theatres, and one to two showtimes per theatre. It feels as wide or wider than anything else I've seen here. | I'm only eyeballing Friday sales, but they're looking very strong compared to Thursday. There's already a number of near sell outs in the more popular formats. I had a post speculating around multipliers a few pages back. HG: BoSS managed a 7.75x multiplier around same time last year, but had no EA sales. Barbie had EA sales and was a summer release that managed 7.25x. I think that's our core range (Nov. 13). It got it's full set of showtimes, but it was very incremental. I sense the chain will wait to see how sales go before allocating screens over the full weekend. Its clear it can make use of any additional capacity it can be given at this point. The growth line is pretty insane though and the comps aren't holding up well. A new EA show was added, which will probably absorb a fair amount of demand as well (Nov. 13). Those VIP sales continue to drive growth here. It makes me wonder what it would have done to the growth trajectory if they were available at the outset. Would it have helped or has the availability at this point helped kick start interest (Nov. 11). I've played with the EA numbers to try and build out comps. It's harder to show the work, but basic concept is I'm looking at the relative sales level from preview and EA sales for a ratio. And then comparing the comps EA to preview actuals, and then trying to extrapolate against those original ratios. It's all fuzzy math, but avoids really big outliers to give something reasonable. As for sales in general, growth remains strong. It feels like the ramp is officially here. Key thing to watch this week is the showtime allocations. Wicked is making the case to get more screens (Nov. 10). I wasn't planning to post an update today, but trend was surprisingly good, so I thought I'd update. Some of it is the VIP seats as expected, but it did well beyond that. Momentum at this stage is a great sign (Nov. 9). Pace is picking up. Part of it is EA sales approaching sell well and probably causing spillov to Thursday sales. We've also got VIP theatres for a Universal release, which is a first for MTC4. Sales are low now but I expect that these will quickly become hot items (Nov. 8). I had VIP showings show up this morning in my Wicked pull. MTC4 has not had Universal films get VIP showings to date, so this is actually a significant development. It seems like it was a financial dispute. VIP showings are actually the highest price point tickets,, ahead of IMAX. It feels like a big box office win. These tickets are perfect for the type of audiences that Wicked may draw. There was only one of my two locations that had showings of this format this morning, but the other added it since it seems. And it looks like the other theatre with the format has added since. These are usually small auditoriums, so it doesn't actually add that much capacity, but these are the showings that sell out early, so it helps drive pre-sales. I wouldn't be surprised if this results in a jump in pace over hte next week or so once people get wind of it (Nov. 7). Still in its slow period. Not much to report (Nov. 3).)

• wattage (I personally couldn't get the Prime link to work until a few days ago but when I finally got it to work and went to buy tickets it was sold out or near sold out at all but one location near me. So it's just something to note for people who are gonna be tracking previews, they'll be wrapping that day into the total as well as the Wednesday showings (Nov. 13).)

Moana 2 Average Tuesday Comp assuming $11M for vafrow: $16.02M

• DEADLINE (This is all per AMC CEO Adam Aron on this afternoon’s Q3 earnings call. “Some people in the know are telling me that Moana 2 could eclipse and outshine even the success of Inside Out 2,” beamed Aron (Nov. 6).)

• DEADLINE (Presales for Moana 2 are ahead of Inside Out 2 and Incredibles 2, which opened to $154.2M and $182.6M (3-day), respectively. Moana 2 is hot with millennials, as well as kids 6-11 (even boys want to see it) and general audiences ages 12-54 (Nov. 7).)

• AniNate ($10m previews was closer to my pre presale expectations (Nov. 3).)

• AnthonyJPHer (The only reason my comp is Inside Out 2 is because Inside Out 2 overpreformed in my market, so if Moana can match or exceed it, 10m previews is probably the floor. I have it at 150-165m 5-day, not sure on the three day however. | WED: Jesus Christ. This thing might actually be a monster. Over 2,000 tickets sold already is insanity (compared to 1,079 tickets for TUES). This is opening Day for Moana 2, and Inside Out 2 this far out did not cross 2000 tickets yet for its opening day. I think 150m 5-day is almost locked, but if it doesn’t keep pace it could fall short. But this is insanely good for Moana 2, and well ahead of where I had my benchmark (1,500) (Nov. 6). TUES: A very good 17.1% increase. Not as good as Deadpool and Wolverines 57%(!) increase in its first Thursday previews updates, but better than the 1 percent increase Inside Out 2 had in its second update. It’s still outpacing Inside Out 2 by a good amount. But Inside Out 2 absolutely exploded in its final week so we’ll see where Moana 2 lands but I think it’s on pace for at least 10m+ in previews (Nov. 6).)

• Charlie Jatinder ($17.68M TUES comp.)

• Flip ($19.37M TUE Inside Out 2 and $59.57M WED Despicable Me 4 Comp. No comps are suitable but this is still very strong growth (Nov. 12). Wow for WED. | No comps are good but this is still very strong growth for TUES (Nov. 10). Good growth (Nov. 8).)

• Ryan C (This update has filled me with confidence that this is heading towards an amazing debut. I unfortunately can't comp this with Inside Out 2, but I do believe (even without a full IMAX/PLF footprint) that it has outsold that film in pre-sales. For a movie geared towards families and its previews being on a Tuesday, the sales at some of these theaters are genuinely impressive. Don't want to get too ahead of myself yet, but this is easily looking at over $100M over the five day Thanksgiving weekend. If reception is good and walk-up business is as strong as it was for Inside Out 2, then the sky is the limit as to how much higher above $100M this movie can go during the five-day Thanksgiving weekend (Nov. 11).)

• Sailor (Moana 2 continues performing insanely well. By tomorrow or Thursday at most, it will already have more tickets than Gladiator II (Nov. 12). Moana 2 continues surprising me (Nov. 5). Third day of tracking. I assume Halloween slowed things (Nov. 1).)

• Shawn Robbins (As for Moana... yeah it could go a lot of ways with the midweek opening and no great Thanksgiving comps other than Wish. I'm thinking anywhere between 8-10 Tue previews at the moment (Nov. 1).)

• vafrow (Forecast: $11M (no change). Growth wasn't great but in line with expectations (Nov. 11). Growth has been good, but not quite good enough to upgrade the comp. We'll see if it holds though (Nov. 10). Forecast: $11M (upgraded from $10M). I upgraded my forecast to $11M, as growth exceeded my estimates over this period and got close enough to reach my initial benchmark after falling off. At 3 weeks out, I'm pencilling 5% daily growth on average over the next two weeks before accelerating to 10% growth in the final week (Nov. 6). I won't use traditional comps until things line up better. Forecast: $10M (downgraded from $12M). I'm downgrading my estimate as growth dropped off quickly after it doubled one day. I don't think it'll hit the milestone marks I estimated. I'm taking a very different approach on this track as nothing lines up, and felt this at least can land on some reasonable estimate, but I'm open to any feedback on this approach (Nov. 3). Still ridiculous. Not a big day, but likely impacted by Halloween. I'm still not sure how to report on this. Based on the scenario I outlined yesterday, I'd still say that $12M is the target for TUES previews. I just don't have any comp to use that plays out towards an outcome like that in the way that I'd expect. The milestone I have in my head is whether this hits 200 tickets sold by the T-21 mark. From there, it would need two weeks at 5% growth to get to 400 tickets at T-7 and one week of 10% growth to double again to around 800. A Halloween update falling below doesn't disrupt that estimate (Nov. 1).)

Pushpa 2

• Charlie Jatinder (Expecting $11-14M 4 days (Nov. 8).)

• Shawn Robbins (Definitely agree it should do well. Not sure it'll be in the public BOT forecast next week but your range sounds about where I'd pencil it in too (Nov. 8).)

Interstellar 70MM IMAX Re-Release

• Charlie Jatinder (MTC2 (Nov. 8).)

• lorddemaxus (The problem is theaters seem to be conservative atm in terms of giving it screens. The theater near me only has 2 showings per day (not a single morning showing) and they're all sold out. Im guessing they didn't expect the kind of demand and re probably waiting for Moana 2. | Im guessing im late by a couple days because every single screening is booked wtf. edit: Im only late by 13 hours (Nov. 7).)

• misterpepp (Digital sales start on Nov 12, so you might get a better idea then (although that date might be for just one or two chains rather than what everybody's doing) (Nov. 9).)

• Shawn Robbins (Interstellar's theater count seems very up in the air. It's only on sale in very select markets right now. Paramount hasn't confirmed how wide it will go but I would hope early sales encourage them to go at least semi-wide (Nov. 8).)

• vafrow (I haven't bothered posting because it's clearly selling out everywhere, but Interstellar is doing extremely well in the IMAX 70 mm format here. Everything is sold out and there's now reports of people scalping tickets. Someone is trying to get $200 a ticket. Not sure how successful they'll be (people are trying to figure out how to report the person on the chains subreddit). But the demand of a 10 year old film on a specific format is pretty crazy (Nov. 11).)

Domestic Calendar Dates (last updated Oct. 31):

NOVEMBER

• (Nov. 14) Thursday Previews [Red One]

• (Nov. 15) Presales Start [Y2K]

• (Nov. 18) Presales Start [Mufasa: The Lion King]

• (Nov. 18) Early Access [MON: Bonhoeffer: Pastor. Spy. Assassin. + Wicked (Prime Early Screening)]

• (Nov. 19) Presales Start [Trailer Park Boys Presents: Standing on the Shoulders of Kitties - The Bubbles and the Shitrockers Story]

• (Nov. 20) Early Access [WED: Wicked]

• (Nov. 21) Thursday Previews [Bonhoeffer: Pastor. Spy. Assassin + Gladiator II + Wicked]

• (Nov. 26) Tuesday Previews [Moana 2]

• (Nov. 29) Presales Start [Kraven]

DECEMBER

• (Dec. 4) Opening Day [WED: Pushpa 2]

• (Dec. 5) Thursday Previews [Get Away + The Return + Solo Leveling -ReAwakening- + Trailer Park Boys Presents + Werewolves + Y2K]

• (Dec. 6) Opening Day [Interstellar 70MM IMAX Re-Release]

• (Dec. 12) Thursday Previews [Kraven the Hunter + The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim + September 5]

• (Dec. 19) Thursday Previews [Homestead + Mufasa: The Lion King + Sonic the Hedgehog 3]

• (Dec. 25) Opening Day [WED: Babygirl + A Complete Unknown + The Fire Inside + Nosferatu]

Presale Tracking Posts:

Oct. 6

Oct. 8

Oct. 10

Oct. 13

Oct. 15

Oct. 19

Oct. 22

Oct. 24

Nov. 2

Nov. 6

Nov. 9

Nov. 12

Note: I have removed most tracking data that has not been updated for 2 weeks. I think there is value in keeping data for a week or two but at a certain point they start to lose their value and should not be treated the same as more recent tracking data.

1. Ocean's Eleven(2001) ~ 32M
2. Mr. & Mrs. Smith(2005) ~ 29M
3. Interview With The Vampire(1994) ~ 25M
4. World War Z(2013) ~ 25M
5. Se7en(1995) ~ 23M
6. Troy(2004) ~ 21M
7. Ocean's Twelve(2004) ~ 20M
8. The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button(2008) ~ 17M
9. Megamind(2010) ~ 17M
10. Ocean's Thirteen(2007) ~ 17M

What do y'all think of Box Office Pull? Has he underachieved considering his ability as a performer and his popularity?

I've been lurking and loving the analyses here and am wondering what you think the Joker sequel needed to do differently to not to bomb like the Hindenburg. It's got all the same elements as the first movie, it's just a bit... extra.

I think a movie about an accused murder's alleged alternative personality possibly defending him in court (while the prosecutor tries to prove he doesn't have multiple personality disorder) could have been an amazing psychological thriller, but Todd Phillips never grew those seeds. His directorial vision seemed to be... omnipresent pain and bleakness?

I like the fact that half the musical performances were two unglamorous, mentally unhealthy criminals singing badly to each other and chain-smoking, but I think some original songs should have been created for the fantasy sequences. Did the sheer concept of a Joker musical turn the audience off? I could see that, I felt a bit of that, even though I like a lot of what they did.

(Also, I don't know how this movie cost so much money. That's just incredible to me. Knowing the final box office numbers, I'm cracking up imagining what this movie would look like if it had a small enough budget to turn a profit.)

This movie is becoming a lesson in why you need to give the audience what they want, but... I thought it gave the audience everything it did in the first movie. Was it the extra bits that revolted the audience? The sheer concept? What did the audience want?

https://preview.redd.it/0k5tssyqep0e1.png?width=620&format=png&auto=webp&s=08aaaf2475ad5d56d90cbf42855b49e51afe197f

#Daily Box Office(November 13th 2024)

The market hits ¥25M/$3.5M which is down -3% from yesterday and down -17% versus last week.

Gladiator 2 and Moana 2 have both began pre-sales with Gladiator starting off with $3k across 5k screenings which means little almost 10 days off. Thigs will get clearer next week. Moana is even less relevant as its another full week after that but for whats its worth it has around $120 across 851 screenings.

Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince sits at $120k in pre-sales for its re-release on Friday. Looking to open around $0.70M.

Province map of the day:

https://imgsli.com/MzE4MDA0

Venom 3 and Cesium Fallout eat into The Untold Story's ground even further.

In Metropolitan cities:

Venom 3 wins Beijing

Cesium Fallout wins Shanghai, Chengdu Shenzhen, Chongqing, Wuhan, Suzhou, Nanjing, Hangzhou and Guangzhou

City tiers:

To Gather Around sneaks into 3rd in T1 today

Tier 1: Cesium Fallout>Venom 3>To Gather Around

Tier 2: Cesium Fallout>Venom 3>The Untold Story

Tier 3: Cesium Fallout>Venom 3>The Untold Story

Tier 4: Cesium Fallout>Venom 3>The Untold Story

Pre-Sales map for tomorrow

Pre-sales map splits amongst many different movies.

https://i.imgur.com/K6yKKAB.png

###Venom: The Last Dance

Venom 3 is now only a day away from passing GOTG3 and becoming the highest grossing CBM in China post COvid.

https://i.imgur.com/M17Poag.png

WoM figures: Maoyan: 8.8 , Taopiaopiao: 8.6 , Douban:6.5

|#|WED|THU|FRI|SAT|SUN|MON|TUE|Total| |:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:| |Third Week|$1.11M|$1.02M|$1.52M|$3.45M|$2.37M|$0.72M|$0.66M |$84.20M |Fourth Week|$0.62M|/|/|/|/|/|/ |$84.82M |%± LW|-44%|/|/|/|/|/|/|/|

Scheduled showings update for Venom 3 for the next few days:

#Other stuff:

The next Holywood movie to release will be Red One on November 9th followed by Gladiator 2 on the 22nd and Moana 2 on November 29th. Mufasa will release on December 20th.

Wicked is also confirmed for a release but doesn't have a date yet.

While Sonic 3 and LoTR will also likely get a release this year.

#Release Schedule:

A table including upcoming movies in the next month alongside trailers linked in the name of the movie, Want To See data from both Maoyan and Taopiaopiao alongside the Gender split and genre.

Remember Want To See is not pre-sales. Its just an anticipation metric. A checkbox of sorts saying your interested in an upcoming movie.

Not all movies are included since a lot are just too small to be worth covering.

November:

December:

Holywood should fill in this schedule once The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim, Sonic 3 and Mufasa get confirmed and or get dates.

January:

January for now remains baren. It will be an incredibly backloaded month with Spring Festival starting on the 29th. So far only 2 movies have been officialy confirmed for it. Creation Of The Gods P2. A sequel to a very well received movie from last year that made $360M. With the prime date and coming off good reception i have little doubt P2 will increase from the 1st movie.

And the next Boonie Bears movie. China's prime animation franchise which has been a Spring Festival mainstay for a decade now with next year being the 11th consecutive year a Boonie Bears movie releases for Spring Festival. The franchise has seen a steady increase in box office with last years movie hitting a franchise peak $280M+

Besides that the rest are mostly rumors. 2 strong candidates being a new Detective Chinatown movie called Detective Chinatown 1900 which has wraped filming this year. The Sequel or better said Prequel will try to wash away the incredibly bad reception of DC3. A movie which opened to a record breaking $399M across 3 days beating out End Game's US opening. But only grossed $680M+.

Another strong candidate is also Operation Leviathant. A followup to 2018's massive success Operation Red Sea which grossed $579M.

Then there is The Legend of the Condor Heroes which has been anticipated for a long time as well as Nezha 2. The follow up to Nezha from 2019 which to this day remains the biggest animation of all time in a single market with $730M+.

Harry Potter Marathon:

Harry Potter Re-Run Marathon has been announced. Starting October 11th there is gonna be a new movie releasing every week all the way till late November with Hallows P2.

Gladiator 2: Is doing a lot right on its first day. CGV score is a 92 and CGV reservation rate is a pretty strong 26.5% which is a good drop. Presales are sitting at a pretty sweet 84k which means presales has increased since it opened. Should be a strong weekend movie.

Venom The Last Dance: Continues to beat expectations with a 43% drop from last Wednesday.

Love In The Big City: Added 1,414 admits today which is good enough for a 64% drop from last Wednesday.

Weathering With You: Has a healthy 34% drop from last Wednesday as it added 1,342 admits

Wild Robot: Collected another 1,181 admits as it increased by 43% from last Wednesday.

Presales news!

1. Wicked is currently sitting at 44,117 in tickets sold which is good enough for a 18.6% cgv reservation rate.

2. MHA is currently sitting at 9,067 in tickets sold.

http://www.koreanfilm.or.kr/eng/news/boxOffice_Daily.jsp?mode=BOXOFFICE_DAILY

#1 Film in Ticket Sales & Box Office

Weekend 45/24 (November 7th, 2024-November 10th, 2024) Top 20 in Ticket Sales:

Weekend 45/24 (November 7th, 2024-November 10th, 2024) Top 20 in Box Office:

Other Newcomers: