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Good enough to screenshot, good enough to sell but im gg to 💎🙌 on this one
With a great FSD V13 release and with that exciting bullish setup on Friday close, $TSLA is ready to fly tomorrow and this week. It's already trading 2.2% up in overnight hours. Stellantis NV news (CEO Carlos Tavares is out today amid the automaker's recent declining sales and profits) should also be a catalyst to Tesla stock as ICE based auto manufacturers find themselves in a challenging spot in terms of getting their EV cost structures in check.
Doordash now has household goods, groceries, electronics, etc. which all usually deliver in less than 1 hour. I also tried out a few shopping carts and DoorDash was actually cheaper.
I like DoorDash's strategy of being a last mile carrier and reusing existing supply chains. Amazon's strategy of building their own end-to-end supply chain seems like it hit a brick wall with delivery speed. The fastest you can get now is several hours with no signs of improvement.
Thoughts?
EDIT: I mean Amazon retail will be dissolved. AWS will still exist.
RKLB,RCAT,ACHR
Redwire - The 3rd Musketeer Rocketlab SpaceX
Redwire already supplies Rocketlab with parts, a contractual agreement which started in May 2024. The also supply NASA, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Blue Origin and many more.
And those are just some of the latest contracts & advancements Redwire has made. They’ve been prolific aquirers since going public and continue to aggressively expand their footprint across all space sectors.
It’s why their CEO goes by the Moto of “If space wins Redwire wins”, a confident statement backed by their foundational success of becoming the “building blocks to space”
Yet it’s currently one of the cheapest and most undervalued Space stocks there is. Trading at a P/S of just 1.58 compared to Rocket Labs 30, A market cap of just $900M vs Rocketlabs $13b & ASTS $7b
This isn’t about who’s better, it’s about Redwire being drastically undervalued and under the radar of most growth investors.
I shared my thoughts on Rocketlab 3-4 months ago after scooping the October and January calls.
Since then people have finally started to realise the potential in the company. To sit are similar valuations based upon growth and income, Redwire would not to hit approximately $42/share. At this point it would still remain once of the cheapest yet most advanced space companies out there.
Why now?
Stocks move in themes, every success trader from here to Timbuktu will tell you that. It’s caused by the excitement and willingness of investors to take on risk on what they believe to be innovative and early stage Giants. The recent news of SpaceX, the parabolic run in ASTS and Rocketlabs 50th successful launch, all set the stage for a new theme and fomo rally to emerge.
Just like when EVs moved thanks to the hype in Tesla we saw the entire sector move.
Just like when $AI started the AI run and others such as NVDA (plus plenty of others) took the button and ran for 12-18 months.
I see the Space sector as an emerging theme and names such as Redwire could potentially take the baton and garner worldwide interest.
For me, I see the worst case, bear case, as Redwire being a $1bn+ market cap by Christmas, which still represents a 100% move. Best case I see buyers stepping into calls of which market makers are drastically under-positioned for, creating a substantial over the top rally.
Please note: I haven’t a fucking clue what I’m talking about and none of this is advice.
$RDW - Shares
I stopped day trading …
Positions - Got in around NDX 20950 - 20960 and am looking for 20800 (any progress along the way is fine even if it doesn't hit 100%)
Who should I book? $2,000 gets me Phoenix Marie and $1,200 gets me Lauren Philips
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Late to the game but looking at adding some bitcoin. Any thoughts on these options?
MSTR = if course higher valuation than their BTC holdings and is sort if a 3-4x proxy. But volatility could translate to higher growth than BTC alone. Plus, selling covered calls has some really juicy premiums.
BTC = actually buying bitcoin. Most direct. But it bugs me crypto is treated so oddly. Asked if you own crypto on taxes and some banks. Prefer to avoid this stuff.
BTC (etf) = seems the most straightforward way to get into Bitcoin. Fee is 0.15% which isn’t crazy high.
Thoughts on these 3 options?
I only scrape the surface as far as some of you folks go by way of analysis. GlobalStar ‘s Q1 pending reverse stock split seems like it comes with good faith of NASDAQ listing and potential outlooks getting it out of penny stock territory. Just wanted to probe the discussion board on what folks think of the next 2-6 months based on reverse stock splits generally not being a great sign of financials. Thoughts?
3000 shares 30 2C 4-17-25
The CEO of STLA stellantis (owner of jeep, RAM etc) has just resigned (in other words he has just been fired)
Numbers must be very bad at STLA.. Tavares has ahsolutely destroyed the brand in the US with crazy prices and destroyed the dealership network..
shares down big tomorrow
does Renault bid for STLA now under Luca Di MEo
Auto giant Stellantis announces "immediate" resignation of CEO Tavares
Sunday, December 01, 2024 09:03 pm Dec. 1 (AFP) -- Stellantis chief executive Carlos Tavares on Sunday resigned "with immediate effect", the auto giant announced, signalling differences over the future of the multi-brand firm. The company, which makes Fiat, Peugeot and Jeep vehicles, said in a statement that the board had accepted the resignation of the 66-year-old Portuguese executive. "In recent weeks different views have emerged which have resulted in the board and the CEO coming to today's decision," independent director Henri de Castries said in the statement.
Oil stocks have had a weird few weeks with the Middle East tensions rising then falling, Russia on the aggression with Ukraine. I’ve read some people saying we’re heading to a dip in all the gas/oil stocks with stockpiling by certain countries including Russia, and some other regards saying we’re heading more for a ~$75 by EOY.
Anyway, I’m hodling my calls. I reckon ~75 by EOY, but let’s see.
Hear me out. I'm not coming at this from a technical or fundamental perspective, so there are some things to explain for those that don't understand. But also want to hear others perspectives, even the bears (respectfully if possible hah)
I'm not a trader by any means. I'm in Reddit because my background is giving me some new perspective on the potential.
My background is in SEO (search engine optimization). I know the search engines. I know how websites are monetized. I've seen hundreds of millions of dollars pass through the hands of clients, bloggers, ecom stores I've owned, CPA offers and leveraging social media, etc etc
There's an endless supply of money on the web via ad revenue, product referrals, and money to be had without actually selling a thing. If you don't understand how ad revenue is generated on the web, it similar to traditional advertising models. Traditionally you would charge by CPM (cost per 1000 impressions). An impression is simply someone seeing an ad. For example if a billboard company sells you an ad space it's based on the amount of people that travel down the freeway. So if the freeway has 10k traffic everyday thats 10k impressions a day and the advertising company sets a price for the CPM.
With the web you have more avenues to monetize. But the majority of monetizing with ads is via CPCs and CPM. CPC = cost per click. We can get into marketing funnels and offers and yada yada but thats not how a company like Reddit is going to monetize. I've seen little dinky websites that leverage ranking web pages for keywords in Google make big $$. One example is a DUI attorney I worked with in Phoenix who had a blog. So you understand how blog monetization works just go to any blog and look at their ads on the page, and possible affiliate links inside of the content. Anyhow, for the DUI attorney his ads in the side bar of his blog were earning him on average $40 per click. Everytime someone clicked an ad on his page he made approx $40. "dui attorney phoenix" currently has a range of $30 - $225 per click and get and avg of $82 per click as one example. His adsense account made $10k a month roughly on a blog that was getting about $20k in monthly traffic. Reddit has 1.2 billion in unique organic visitors every month. And growing
Reddit is in it's infancy when it comes to monetizing their traffic and really leverging their ads such as a company like Facebook/Meta.
However, it has more organic traffic than Amazon. Last I checked Reddit was fluctuating between #5 and #7 in terms of sites with the largest traffic.
Amazon IPO'd at $18 a share. They adjusted shares 480x (not sure if that number is 100% correct, but I think it is) which means the current share price since IPO without splits is about $99k per share.
If Reddit closes the gaps in 3 areas...
Dials in their ad monetization
Launches a Marketplace
Capitalizes on local search traffic
It's my opinion this could easily be $1000+ a share. Market cap is a measly 25 bil.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE this is only my outlook based on the possibility with leveraging search traffic and monetizing it, the possibility that being the 5th largest traffic driver on the web brings, and why I'm invested.
Planning to go back in slowly after a few other plays in the coming months since I also expect a correction / consolidation.
106 ACHR 7C 2027/01/15 sold
In-Depth Investigation of Supermicro (SMCI): Financial Analysis, Future Scenarios, and AI Market Potential
I’ve spent hours gathering, analyzing, and organizing all the information to present it here for you. I hope it brings clarity to the complexities surrounding Supermicro. As always, everything here represents my personal opinion and is not financial advice or a recommendation.
SMCI: Navigating Opportunities and Challenges
I reviewed SMCI's annual and quarterly financial reports. Key highlights include:
I estimated the likelihood of each scenario based on the company’s history, current market conditions, and financial data:
SMCI operates in a highly competitive AI infrastructure market, where leaders like NVIDIA, HP, and Dell play critical roles. Unlike competitors focused on broader markets, SMCI is carving a niche in AI-specific solutions, such as liquid cooling and custom server technology.
This chart highlights SMCI’s potential market cap across different scenarios, showcasing conservative, moderate, and optimistic projections.
This chart illustrates the rapid growth of the AI market from 2023 to 2027, emphasizing the enormous opportunity for companies like SMCI.
Metric | SMCI | NVIDIA | Dell | HP |
---|---|---|---|---|
Focus Area | AI Infrastructure | GPUs/AI Chips | General IT | General IT |
P/E Ratio | ~20-25 (est.) | ~90-100 | ~10-15 | ~8-12 |
Market Position | Niche AI Hardware | AI Chip Leader | Broad IT Solutions | Enterprise IT |
Q: "How were the percentage adjustments determined?"
A: The analysis relied on accounting trends, cash flow gaps, and historical issues with the company.
Q: "Why did you choose a P/E ratio of 20-25?"
A: This is a conservative multiplier suitable for tech companies in competitive, high-growth markets.
Q: "What makes SMCI different from competitors?"
A: SMCI focuses on hardware solutions specifically tailored for AI workloads, including liquid cooling and high-performance servers.
Scenario | Adjusted Revenue | Adjusted Net Income | Market Cap (Conservative) | Market Cap (Optimistic) | Share Price (Range) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
All Allegations Are True | $12.5–$13.3B | $1.03–$1.09B | $20B | $24B | $35–$40 |
Some Allegations Are True | $13.5–$14B | $1.1–$1.15B | $23B | $27B | $40–$45 |
No Allegations Are True | $14.94B | $1.21B | $25B | $35B | $42–$55 |
Future Outlook (AI Market) | $25–$30B | $2.5–$3B | $50B | $60B | $80–$100 |
⚠️ This post is not financial advice and should not be taken as an investment recommendation.
Readers are encouraged to perform their own research before making any investment decisions.
I used ChatGPT to organize all my analysis and create the graphs.
What do you think? Will SMCI dominate the AI market, or is this too risky? Let’s discuss! 🚀
Some Bullish Videos:
1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IDC_raA0dqY
2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KMM14FsCriM&t
Robinhood’s new Legend upgrade was incredibly instrumental in tracking the trends and hit them at as close to the high as possible.
Who was shorting regional banks based on their exposure to commercial real estate (CRE) risk. With all the talk about the potential fallout from the CRE sector over the past few years, I’m curious to know who took the plunge and shorted these banks earlier in 2023 or 2024?
Did it work as expected? Any surprises, like a stronger-than-anticipated rebound in bank performance, or did CRE exposure finally start to eat away at their balance sheets?
What’s the outlook on this trade? Do you think the worst of the CRE fallout is yet to come, or is the market pricing in the potential for a prolonged slump? Will regional banks be in for more pain, or do we start seeing a normalization as the economy adjusts?
Sold all my shares @8.38 to cover my costs so I’m covered even if it dumps but I’m gonna ride it out. Depending on news may possibly exercise contracts