This was only from one of a dozen companies I straddled with OTMs for earnings but hey free money.

As a trader, you thrive on volatility. You thrive on movements. With the market only "open" for a set period of time, it essentially ensures that - if there's going to be volatility or movement - it's far and away most likely to occur within the timeframe that the market is open (obvious exception being futures, but even then - large movements after/pre-hours are comparatively rare). This ensures faster, more efficient movement - allowing active day-traders to make money within that timeframe.

I've traded crypto futures for the last three years. What I've seen most frequently happen in said 24/7 market, is that you'll see long, extended, seemingly endless periods of consolidation, punctuated by either a rapid, "almost random" high-volatility movement, or a very slow, progressive, multiple day trend. While said movement "may" occur within standard US trading hours, it may also occur outside.

In traditional finance, with open market hours, you're far more likely to see some sort of decent movement occur nearly every day within open hours. It feels consistent, repeatable, and has a feeling of market efficiency "correcting & moving the market price to where it's intended to be" within the short timeframe where the market is available.

By opening up trading to 24/7 hours, I expect movements will be much more similar to crypto; in terms of either huge sudden movements at any given sudden time after 2 days of extended consolidation - or long, slow-moving, protracted movements that generate insecurity in your position and often premature closing of position.

The only ones who benefit from 24/7 markets are 1) Algos, 2) Institutional players entering and exiting large positions incrementally, and 3) Longer-term swing traders.

The daily volatility will largely disappear, without the need for entering/exiting positions within a specific timeframe.

Now eviscerate me and my expectations and tell me why I'm wrong

I've been an active investor in ETFs and individual stocks since graduating college in 2010. I've tried a little bit of everything and learned a lot (from good investments and some really bad ones) along the way. I've done broad market ETFs, sector ETFs, leveraged ETFs, commodity ETNs, penny stocks, risky biotech stocks that *might* go to the moon but will probably get pink slipped, solid large cap stocks, memestocks, option spreads, option calls and puts. etc... It's been a wild ride and I've learned a lot. While I made a lot of bad investments, I am grateful that I didn't do anything too reckless and only gambled a little bit of my money on insane ideas.

Overall my portfolio has done well in the past 14 years so I feel like I made money while going to school. I made a few really good large investments in large cap ETFs and a few companies that have done extremely well (NVDA, ANET, META, CYBR, BRK/B) But now it's time to simplify.

Now I am applying all those lessons learned to update my portfolio holdings to just the ETFs and companies I believe in for the long term. At the end of last year I had a lot of random little investments in all kinds of companies and ETFs and it was just ridiculous. Over 60 individual company stocks and dozens of different ETFs. I took diversification to an extreme that just wasn't making a difference and holding me back due to opportunity cost.

What I'm looking to do now is to sell off all the random ETFs and stocks that aren't my top picks. The famous saying from Warren Buffet about diversification I believe holds true about ETFs as well as individual companies. "If you can identify six wonderful businesses, that is all the diversification you need. And you will make a lot of money. And I can guarantee that going into a seventh one instead of putting more money into your first one is gotta be terrible mistake. Very few people have gotten rich on their seventh best idea. But a lot of people have gotten rich with their best idea."

Now I'm not nearly as good at evaluating companies as Warren Buffett. So my approach will be to identify my shortlist of favorite ETFs for long term growth as well as a few high conviction companies. I will consolidate my holdings into just these etfs / stocks.

I've done a lot of research this is where I've landed. I will rebalance as needed to make sure i don't get overly concentrated.

Large Cap US S&P 500: VOO / SPLG

Dividend Growth: VIG

Large Cap Growth: SCHG

Mid Cap Growth: IMCG

Mid Cap Value: COWZ

Small Cap Value: CALF

Semiconductors: SMH

I'm also experimenting a little with GPIQ and SPHY for yield, but I'm more focused on growth than yield at this point.

As for individual stocks, my key holdings are:

NVDA

META

GOOG

BRK.B

TSLA

CYBR

ANET

AVGO

MSFT

AMZN

PLTR

I realize this is very large cap growth / tech stock heavy... especially with some of my stock holdings also representing a significant weighting in the ETFs. But I am ok with this.I'm done with ETFs for REITS, Emerging Markets, International. In both good and bad economic environments since 2010 they don't typically provide outperformance and I would have been way better off just putting the money into a US S&P500 fund. I don't see any compelling reason to keep any money in these kind of funds anymore.I was looking for potential exposure to more small caps (esp growth) but I haven't found an ETF that is all that compelling in this space.

Curious what feedback people have. Is there something big I'm missing by avoiding International and REITs? Am I too concentrated in large cap tech? Am I leaning way too much on good past performance of large caps? Are there any fantastic ETFs I should considering adding to my short list?

For years I tried to buy beat up sectors and stocks hoping they would outperform, but I've seen just the opposite. So my strategy now is to stay relatively diversified into ETFs / companies that have a history of consistent strong performance and strong business models.

I just want to say I am flattered and honored to be apart of a community of this nature. I regret to inform you all that I will be leaving wallstreetbets while I still have my sanity in tact. While it was fun once upon of a time I have did nothing but make profit and loss it right after. I will be taking my talents to strictly buying and selling stocks like the good ole days. Wish you all well and fuck you all

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE

Got the go ahead from mods to repost this. Hopefully all going to be good this time around. As always, my intent is to stay within the rules so if anything is off would appreciate direct feedback! Thanks :)

Positive of reposting is that I am not as rushed as I was typing it up from work... haha

TLDR: Looking at a number of mature pharma companies their institutional ownership usually is around 70% (give or take). IBRX is just at 8% so there is A LOT of room for institutional money to flow in as this solidifies itself as a legit pharma company. Their investor presentation from Friday has all the markings of a company that has it's shit together and is ready for the big leagues.

**edit: another angle for the TLDR: Company was beat down because of an FDA denial and cash running short. Turns out the denial wasn’t because the drug was bad, but because their manufacturer fucked something up. Instead of giving up they quickly fixed the problem and kept pushing forward knowing they’d get approved. Tuesday they got approved. Friday they did a call explaining how fucking awesome their drug is, how ready they are to sell it immediately, and how they expect to get international approvals and working hard to get approvals for other cancers including a big one with lung cancer.

If you believe them, then this thing is just beginning. 5 billion is tiny for a successful pharma company. End edit**

My positions (total of about $1800 cost basis which is about 1/3rd of my current portfolio and above my usual $500 per play target). Note: It was rather small going into yesterday and then I double and tripled down as I wrapped my head around this thesis, so I actually put in more money at so far peak prices than I did earlier in the week when it was cheap. Including full transaction history for transparency.

Schwab:

​

Position

Buy details, I moved out of the stock into options fully and bought a fair amount near the peak

Interactive Brokers:

Ran on of cash in Schwab so bought some more in my other account toward the end of the day (also low on cash lol)

My first DD post so bear with me. I will not make this any longer than I feel is necessary so don't expect one of those novel length posts. This stock came to my attention as a result of a couple of posts earlier this week that never gained traction. However I feel that they did not present a holistic view of my position plus there has been additional information shared by the company since so making this post.

Here are the reasons why I went significantly above my normal investment amount with this (currently a bit on the poor side so not a lot to some) .

Note: Numbers below are based on using yahoo finance so probably slightly dated

1.New drug approved this week - this is what got this thing on my radar

2. Institutional ownership reported at only a bit over 8% while looking up a number of other phrama companies (moderna, pfizer, and viking therapeutics, and others) all have institutional ownership around 70%. I think there is lots of room for institutional money to flow in and get this thing much higher.

3. Based on the investor call they just had about the drug:

it is ready to roll for immediate deployment with contracts set up with the 3 major US distributors, a sales team in place, a first order already ready to ship on May 6th

enough supply in stock for 12 months and enough active ingredients and manufacturing capacity to quickly makemore as needed

easy to incorporate into existing treatments as it doesn't require any special refrigeration and fits into current drug order processes for healthcare providers

discussion about moving on to international markets (including claims that there are many offers from potential distribution partners)

discussion about how they have additional studies in progress that they believe are promising across a number of different cancers, not just this niche one

4. It popped on the FDA approval announcement, then pulled back, and is now popping again after this investor call so it seems that this is a real pop, not just a blind FDA approval move up

5. it has now broken it's 52 week high.

6. they're meeting with the FDA in the next couple of months to advocate for the studies of expanding their product to other cancers.

7. I have not personally confirmed this, but there is a lot of chatter about how the reason it is 79% insider owned is because it is owned in large by a billionaire and this guy believes in the company.

Potential risks:

1) This was a pump and dump on Friday. Seems to me that this is highly unlikely given how much they seem to have their act together, but still a possiblity.

2) They have been bleeding cash and actually really needed this approval to avoid liquidity issues. They do have over $300mm on hand and if this takes off they'll have new cash coming in from sales so I'm not too concerned.

3) They may need more cash than they have to expand into international markets, that may require some dilution. That being said, I would consider that dilution well worth it as expansion into international markets would significantly raise their value.

4) The drug isn't all they claim it is. I am not in a position to assess this risk, but it did just get approved by the FDA and they seem to have their act together so I'm willing to accept this risk.

5. I have not personally confirmed this, but there is a lot of chatter about how the reason it is 79% insider owned is because it is owned in large by a billionaire. This could work against my institutional investor thesis as they may not like it if he decides not to sell any of his holdings to trade in the open markets.

That's plenty for me. It's already moving, has potential for a lot of institutional money if it is deemed a "real" pharma company with this drug and based on their investor call from today they seem to have their ducks in a row for immediate distribution.

THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.

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EDIT: 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🌚 🌚 🌚

Seems I am not be regarded enough as I forgot the rockets 🤦‍♂️

Some suggested links from the comments: This is the investor call that I referenced:

https://ir.immunitybio.com/events/event-details/investor-live-audio-webcast

This is an article that may be easier to digest than some of the technical medical talk in the call:

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20240423/FDA-approval-of-Anktiva-heralds-a-new-era-in-the-treatment-of-BCG-unresponsive-none28093muscle-invasive-bladder-cancer.aspx

$SPOT puts -> $ODFL calls -> $TSM calls -> currently holding $IBM and $HTZ calls

Hertz/Dollar shit the bed because of their horrid decision to replace most of their fleet with electric cars that nobody wants to rent, however that is not the only thing that killed Hertz. Enterprise/Alamo/National (which is, unfortunately, privately held) has undercut the rental market by having the cheapest rates for business customers. I’ve noticed that a lot of my regular customers (usually on business trips) have been renting from Enterprise lately and Avis has lost a significant portion of our portfolio.

Not to mention Enterprise has significantly increased their fleet (at least on the east coast), and have slowly taken over this location’s marketshare, although I can only speak for where I work.

I believe that earnings for CAR do not look good and the premiums on puts seem to agree with me. I would like to hear some counter arguments as to why $CAR won’t fall on its face this earnings.

I currently don’t hold any positions at the moment because I lost all my money following you regards, but if it looks truly bad for $CAR I might work some extra shifts behind the Wendy’s dumpster.

) bird flu found in dairy supply

All cool things do come back, and in this case it’s the H5N1 or bird flu virus. Take a few minutes to google H5N1 and you’ll see growing concerns over the worldwide spread, including in the US, where it has now spread into the dairy supply. While the virus so far has not jumped much to humans, the known fatality rate is 50%, and it has been confirmed in some dairy workers so far in Texas. Many experts are worried, and it could be a great opportunity for you to be on the right side of a leap. (massive amount of vaccines would be neededpreparedness/)

Good news however, as H5N1 vaccines do exist, and the US has some stockpiled, but not nearly enough for what the need would be. GSK (Glaxo Smith Kline) and AZN (Astrazeneca) both have approved H5N1 vaccines between US/ EU.

My plays GSK $65c 1/21/26 (bought at .25, is now .8) AZN $100c 1/17/25 (bought .36 is now .39) AZN $110c 1/17/25 (bought .12 is now .19)

This was all purchased yesterday, so you still have time. While I hope we don’t have another pandemic, these are some lottery tickets to keep you comfortable

*this is not financial advice, and I am not a medical expert. I just like tendys,

More upside with the new revised forecast for the second time . Setting new all time high

To me it’s a no brainer to have. I would never take Ozempic myself, but more and more I think everyone should have NVO in their portfolio.

I know there’s some saying there’s risk there being any press coming out on “side effects” and potential tanking—I don’t think people understand how hard it is to get a drug approved.

The company is very different than American pharmaceutical companies which prioritize short term gains. They have a great long term planning structure, their products are high quality, and are scientifically advanced.

I also want to note that when the company was founded over a century ago, they safeguarded it from any acquisition, so that further secures the long term planning and solid foundation.

I’ve heard more about Elli Lily being competition as well which is valued high, but would have to look at the company as a whole.

I commented something similar elsewhere, but I felt like I should post this as to why I actually like $Oklo long term.

Edit: Add a tldr Thank you /u/TheMemeChurch tldr; Oklo has a novel approach to nuclear power generation that targets 3 main problems with current nuclear power: waste, cost, and proliferation. Green light from DoE to develop a proof of concept reactor at Idaho National Lab, and the spent fuel waste material to do it.

Everyone is so hyped for the short term merger play, I think people have lost sight of the long term potential that Oklo brings to the table. I was incredibly skeptical at first because nuclear power usually faces pretty significant challenges in monetizing. Nuclear also faces regulatory hurdles, but something Sam discusses is the impressive pipeline of deals and contracts that Oklo has lined up, that is hopeful.

The two things that will be crucial to follow are the successful demonstration by Oklo in recycling fuel waste through its Aurora Fuel Fabrication Facility, and then subsequently using that recycled fuel waste to power its Aurora power plant. here is an article speaking a little bit about it. Promising news: the DoE has approved their safety design proposal, and has given them the authority to acquire fuel waste from the de-comissioned breeder reactor there at INL (Idaho National Lab). On top of this, the DoE has granted Oklo ~$19 Million in funding to help with this process. This is an opportunity that no other nuclear power company, startup or otherwise, has been authorized for in the US, to my knowledge and research

So what about the acquisition of fuel waste from INL is special, and how is this different from other SMR companies like Nuscale for example? Well, if successful, it would be the first US company to be able to process its own fuel, not from raw materials, but from nuclear waste. Recycling spent Uranium is an actual brilliant idea. Many complaints surrounding nuclear involve waste, cost, and proliferation. Using recycled fuel waste addresses ALL of these concerns:

1. Waste - Oklo's fast reactor design is much more efficient than previous reactor designs (see bullet 3 below). It effectively extends the life of currently manufactured Uranium fuel many times over. And it can utilize the already spent Uranium fuel waste, buried in the ground gathering dust. By using existing fuel waste as fuel, they might not necessarily reduce the current amount of waste, but they would not generate nearly as much moving forward, which is huge. Imagine instead of having to buy a new car every 20 years, everyone could wait 100 years or more. That is less wasteful.
2. Cost - Again, by extending the life of the fuel, and doing it in house, Oklo won't need to continually acquire fuel for it's small modular reactors, or at least not as much. This reduces cost. It also means that they would be able to acquire their fuel at a discount from companies who would be chomping at the bit to sell off their fuel waste to recoup some losses, instead of having to pay to remove it and store it. Looking at you Canadian decommissioned nuclear power plants with fuel waste just waiting to be stored due to cost. Nuclear fuel waste is becoming a growing problem in some places. The ability to use it, as opposed to generating more of it, is massive. Oklo can also tap into the large stockpile of already stored fuel waste that the government has buried away, which according to the CEO, would be able to meet all energy demands in the US for 100 years. I believe it. Nuclear material is extremely dense with energy. E=mc^2 or some shit.
3. Proliferation - This is the big one honestly. When we dig up Uranium, it consists of several different isotopes. The most abundant of which is U-238. That is not really a good nuclear fuel, for most reactors, since it is relatively stable and hard to break apart (fission). What most reactors want is U-235. What we end up doing, in very simple terms, is we turn the raw material into a gaseous form and use centrifuges to increase the concentration of U-235, taking advantage of the difference in mass between isotopes. This process can produce fuel grade Uranium with enough U-235 to power a reactor. However, this whole process is the same process used to make weapons grade uranium. With Oklo though, and the advent of using recycled fuel waste to power reactors, you could actually de-proliferate, that is shut down the centrifuges used to spin up Uranium to high concentrations of U-235, and just rely on nuclear fuel waste to power your reactors. How does Oklo do this? Basically, their reactor designs rely on fast neutrons as opposed to thermal neutrons to induce fission. These neutrons carry more energy, and are able to break apart transuranic atoms or even the relatively stable, and hugely abundant, U-238. Essentially, their nuclear reactors are more efficient. This is also not a novel idea. Other countries have been using recycled fuel, as well as fast neutrons. You may have heard the term of fast reactors. This is what is being referred to. The fuel waste of the past becomes the fuel of the future. It could revolutionize nuclear power moving forward, and they are just getting started.

Oklo's design also addresses safety concerns. I have worked in nuclear power for 15 years, and I never once imagined a reactor that is "walk away safe". That is insane to me. They can discuss this better, here is a great video of Oklo speaking at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission meeting one year ago. It starts at 14 minutes.

I will also point out, The US is bullish on nuclear power, as is the rest of the world, with the US and 21 other countries pledging to triple their nuclear output by 2050.

I think catching this wave early could be huge. Imagine being 6 years before something with this much potential, that people doubt. The real question is what kind of future do you want to invest in? I believe in nuclear power. I believe in clean energy. And I believe in Sam Altman's vision. I am long shares.

Based on recent market activity I think this is a good entry point for Apple off the lows.

Here are all the reasons why not to like Apple right now

• Fall in phone sales especially in China
• They have been absolutely sideways for the past 12 months and down ~9% for the year.
• Things are going to look bad for this quarter that's a given.
• Apple Vision is not selling well (give that thing a controller and games my god)
• Regulators are breathing down their neck (I do feel some of it is justified regardless of what Cramer says)
• It's been absent in this AI bonanza - probably their worst offense

However, with all of that said there is one thing that Apple has in its perpetual back pocket.

Install Base & Great Product recognition

Before I get into 2 companies that Apple will absolutely trounce, I want to talk about a prediction that is coming for their upcoming June developer conference.

Apple will 1000% announce their AI strategy. It is a foregone conclusion they will do this and in a meaningful way. If they don't do this it would be corporate malfeasance and Tim Cook should resign immediately. But why?

AI is something that YOU MUST get out the door and have people using it. It's not web search where you can make a deal with Google to use their AI offering. And BTW if you think that deal is going to happen with Google it 1000% is not. Apple would insane to do that. You have get your models up, trained and running. If you don't they can never improve. They can't get more training data. And, Apple is already reporting that they have models that are performing well.

To pay Google or anyone for Models when Meta is just releasing models for free right now is a non-starter. Apple will make their own AI models.

Apparently not. Apple is now talking to OpenAI too. So Apple using Microsoft. lol hmmm. Interesting.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-26/apple-intensifies-talks-with-openai-for-iphone-generative-ai-features?embedded-checkout=true

The fact that Apple isn't even look to compete with their own models is just wild to me.

As much as I wish Microsoft and or OpenAI would do a hardware device (regarding AI), Apple has the install base to do something meaningful and in a big way with consumers. Literally, this can be another vertical for Apple.

Other hardware, such as "The PIN" and "the Rabbit" are horrible devices. The Rabbit is OK but it is beyond obvious that your phone is going to be able to do what those devices do shortly. Literally, all Apple has to do is look at anything worthwhile on those devices, what's not worthwhile on them and come out with a future Iphone that does all that and more. It will be like taking candy from a baby.

Edge AI, in my opinion is going to be a great game changer and very practical use case for what profitable AI will look like. Whether it's a Robot or your HER / hand-held device edge AI is where this all goes.

Samsung has already begun AI on the phone and I don't really use it because of 1 reason. It's not a great foundational model like OpenAI's ChatGPT or anything good that is native on the phone. And this is the beautiful thing about Apple. If Apple can just be good enough with their AI models - They're opportunity is different than any other player in the mobile space. They can put a model that they make directly on the phone. True Edge AI. Nobody else has the opportunity to do that in the way Apple does. This will make the AI faster, more responsive, great computer vision, audio capabilities will all be native on the phone.

All for $20 / $30 a month that Apple sheep will be happy to pay for.

Look for Apple to begin that story this June.

My position: Currently I have 1 share but I think now is the time.

SNAP rose by over 25% since earnings yesterday, which I feel is completely bogus. A company that loses 300M every year, diluted 4% of its stock over the past, and has no method of monetization does not deserve a 24B market cap. I feel the rise was completely irrational, and will bleed out in a few weeks. What about you guys?

What the fuck?! 5k>30k in 2.5 months. Big come up today on google 6/21 152.5 calls. Now how do this another 10 times?

Candlestick chart of $NFLX by day

I'm noticing that when Netflix makes this "nail" shape (I'm not well-versed in technical analysis) on a red day, the following trading day, the stock has a very good day.

So, I bought at 2PM when the price of $NFLX was $161.20-ish, and we closed down a little bit from that (I'm down about $50 as of now). I thought $NFLX had a chance to go green today, but it stopped short.

We'll see if I have figured something out on Monday. If $NFLX doesn't do so hot, I'll hold my position until I'm back up - hopefully by the end of the week. Otherwise, I'm content on selling by the end of the day Monday.

All I can say is I'm on an absolute heater right now and I'm up 131% on the year. Should I quit while I'm ahead? Probably. But as long as I manage my risk properly... WHO AM I KIDDING? NETFLIX TO THE MOON!