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Earnings Thread - Daily Thread
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Looking at the chart someone posted of SPY on Friday where it shot up then shot down close to close, got me thinking. If you’re someone with a ton of capital (like an institutional investor or hedge fund) where your selling/buying can move the market, what’s to stop you from buying 0 DTE calls 20 min before close, buying a shitton of shares for 10 min driving the price up, then sell your calls, then buy 0 DTE puts and sell off those shitton of shares. Of course something unexpected could happen, but it seems like a somewhat safe strategy for a very deep pocket to execute. This of course assumes the calls/puts would actually fill.
Turned 2.7k into 45.6k so far. Trying to figure out if it makes sense to exercise the call come January and hold the shares if I believe there is room to run. Which I do.
While Trump has mentioned repealing the IRA, even the petrochemical companies lobbying the Republican Party oppose a full repeal of the act.
Plus, First Solar is particularly attractive because it has low exposure to Chinese solar companies. It also creates a significant number of jobs in the U.S. and has a large backlog of large-scale solar projects.
What’s there to worry about?
Renewable energy has already reached grid parity, and many companies are shifting a substantial portion of their power supply to solar.
Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger told employees Friday that he has texted with Vice President-elect JD Vance since the election and that Gelsinger is optimistic that the incoming Trump administration will support efforts to boost the domestic semiconductor industry.
Who ever thought "internet credits" would yield any actual value? I've never had the opportunity to participate in an IPO pre-market so I jumped on this, despite the majority of WSB flushing the idea and the future of the platform down the toilet.
I was allotted 1000 shares in March at $34 and bought all of them. Now the stock has reached $134.
Warren Buffett is sitting on a pile of cash, yet the market’s acting like it’s on steroids. How does this make any sense? 🤨
Are we really going to ignore that one of the smartest investors ever is bailing out while everyone else is throwing money at overpriced stocks? Feels like 2008 vibes all over again.
The economy is booming - but if it’s so great, why is Buffett cashing out?
Do ya’ll think that this chip ban to China from TSMC will amplify the aggression of China toward Tawain? If aggression amplifies I believe it will change the dynamics of the TSMC stock. Also, the Trump tariffs will also go into the revenue of TSMC. Do we think this stock is too volatile to keep its growth?
With $COIN fundamentals pointing firmly down as very recently indicated after the quarterly results, the subsequent surge - still going on - was a massive win for the stock bulls, but a correction is inevitably coming.
The larger the spike, the larger the correction, though I still think it'll be just a correction for the time being as the mood is currently bullish.
I've had very similar problem in the past, during the known meme stock squeezes, the $OSTK and $TRUP surges...and I've always made money, but I never nearly maxed out, i.e. I've always exited too early.
Not to complain and not implying $COIN will end up like $OSTK...but it is clearly blown up on fundamentals 9 out of 10 times when that happens the stock normally goes down over time.
Two other major reasons I don't think $COIN will be a unicorn are 1) it does not have IP to guard its business; crypto in general is designed as a decentralized concept with public know-how of making it work, which means the more the market matures the higher the competition and there's nothing pushing profits down as well as competition. I don't see that changing in $COIN's favor; and 2) Warren Buffer and Charlie Munger, to both of whom I have great respect, had long said crypto would eventually come to a crash. May take 5, 10 or 50 years and may be irrelevant in the current context, but those two have seen and done way more than I'll ever see and do, so for me it's just a common sense to listen to them.
So...where is your $COIN target and why?
So Elmo was on a call today with The Donald and Zelensky. 🥭 may have been negative in the past about EVs, but Elon has to have a deal in place - most likely to tariff international EVs so that Tesla wins bigly. But, we all know this. Tesla smashed it this week. Am I pissed I missed it? Yes. Am I looking inwards for losing 30% this week, when the market rallied and a young degen chimpanzee could’ve made money? Absolutely. Do I think on Monday I will be buying the Tesla top? Absolutely not.
I think there is another catalyst for Tesla. Fuck the election, fuck the new administration. That’s yesterday’s news. I’m talking Russia.
We’ve seen Elon and Putin in headlines recently. Putin allegedly asked Musk not to activate Starlink over Taiwan as a favor to China. But unlike Sleepy Joe, Trump, a fan of Elon, and seemingly friend of Putin, will not give a shit about this communication. With the prospect of at least a ceasefire, if not all out end, to the war in Ukraine looking likely, I believe this opens up trade with Russia again. But this is where it gets interesting. We have an inside man. Elon is first in the running to reopen business in Russia. He is the business face of this administration, and I believe his targets will be set on the Russian automobile market potential.
Some stats I have found:
Feel free to collectively shit all over me in the comments, but can you really say to yourself this is farfetched? I don’t think so. Elon will do Elon things. This is a PR and economic win for him - be one of the faces associated with ending a war, and be one of the leaders in re-intergating Russia into the global economy.
(Or just go into 0DTE.)
Huma submitted a BLA with priority review which was suppose to be completed Aug 9th but was announced more time was needed and so extended.
Based on previous drug extensions the average time to approval was 3 months on the day extension was announced. So Aug 9 - Nov 9. Since it's a weekend it will be approved the following week as long as theirs no issues (CRL).
Some drugs that received extensions and approvals:
Nirogacestat - AUG27/NOV27 Palopegteriparatide - MAY 14/AUG14 Arimoclomol - June21/Sept21 Aducanumab - Mar7/June7
The list goes on. I have bought 300 x Nov15 7.5 Calls.
This is entertainment like your mom.
had to roll my calls out but i'm not mad about it 🙏🏼
Everyone piling into Tesla, Bitcoin, DJT, etc. and no one ever mentioned Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. These two companies have been orphaned ever since their conservatorship 15+ years ago. During Trump's first presidency he implemented steps to re-privatize the entities and with him back in office the market reacted accordingly. I started building my position in the junior preferreds a little over a year ago.
Should mention that there is still room to run. Most of the junior preferred issues are trading at around 30% of their face value. I only hold the junior preferred shares as the common will most likely get wiped in any recap and release scenario.
It will be interesting to see who Trump picks as his treasury secretary in the coming weeks. John Paulson is one of the names being floated around - he famously bet against subprime mortgages during the GFC and holds a large amount of Fannie and Freddie junior preferreds.
Ignore other financial company holdings - virtually all gains coming from Fannie and Freddie JPS
So soundhound AI has been on an absolute tear these last couple days. What are your moves and expectations for the upcoming earnings report? I personally am up $9k roughly on long $6 calls I got into right before the stock soared 20% to $7+. Do y’all think this could be the AI meme stock play to end 2024 with a bang? Let me know your thoughts re re’s
SoundHound just filed an 8K reporting the sale of $120mil in stock through various underwriter (earning them a nifty 2.5%). Having been there, these guys are putting down the bourbon and offering blocks of stock at a discount to the close.
I had orders in to close an in the money debit spread and also a put order at $5.5 Nov 15 in case there was an earnings disappointment (I'm long SOUN at about $4.90}, but couldn't pull the trigger before market close. Damn.
Here is the graph showing the market capitalization of Tesla (TSLA) on the left and the cumulative market capitalization of other companies (Toyota, BYD, Ferrari, etc.) on the right.
Tesla is represented by the blue bar, while the combined market capitalization of the other companies is represented by the green bar.
That was in 2022:
And in 2021:
Entered most of these in the Spring time, buying at ~$150 to low $200s. Mostly LEAPs, and 100 shares
Bought 4 TSLA 11/8 calls 1 week ago and closed them the morning after the election. My best trade ever
And USD2Y didn’t even start falling that much. Convertion rate ticking up might mean people accepting the loans more instead of better loans ? 🤔 Looking forward to seeing what they’re able of when they will actually have the tailwind of lowered interest rates.
Got sick of having to do on individual stocks .. so liquidated a ton of aapl options and dumped into long dated SPY calls
A loss for ants, and still up, but damn.
Guess I said I'd be alright letting them go at 11.5
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Shits dirt cheap rn I got in at 5$ a few months ago and averaged my way through below 8$ reloads up to 7.45 avg and they have contracts for a few missions with nasa and spacex in jan on the 5th which should bump the share price to 15-20 a share if I hold for 20 yrs I feel like lunr would hit Berkshire Hathaway prices whatchu all think ik long term investments aint really a thing on here lol y'all should buy and hold I feel like she's a diamond in the ruff