New at options, risking it all UPUPUP

I see either of these scenarios as performance positive, and despite the modest budget, believe one will be a nice bump to my current position. Help me tip the decision...

Thoughts on leaps for NBIS? I don't have a fortune available at the moment, but I am freeing up $3K next week and I was looking at the following:

- Jan 2027 1x at $27

and

- Jan 2026 1x at $27

FWIW, I currently own 200 shares of NBIS, been adding increments of 50 and am pretty high at a $31 average.

My alternative for this $3K is to grab another 500-600 shares of FNMA/FMCC combined, I currently own 1,200 shares combined.

Took leaps on Friday. Now just waiting game

I haven’t posted much in recent years because there was no material change since my bullish scenario panned out. It’s been a smooth uptrend interrupted by two aggressive corrections in H2 2023 and Q3 2024. Nevertheless, portfolios holding the right hyperscalers or the Mag7 enjoyed triple digit annual returns. It’s now getting urgent that I document my thoughts on why I think the market’s next move is DOWN.

It looks like the market topped out. I don’t think we are in a broadened out bubble territory but select AI stocks are and the S&P 500 is at historic premium levels:

GuruFocus: https://www.gurufocus.com/economic_indicators/57/sp-500-pe-ratio

AI plays look extremely rich. They are priced to perfection and we are demanding excessive growth rates several years into the future. Just have a look at them.

• NVDA: 2024 P/E is 92 and 2025 est. 40
• TSLA: 2024 P/E is 167 and 2025 est. 134
• PLTR, oh boy: 2024 P/E 215 (subject to change with their next quarterly earnings) and 2025 est. 168

I’m super excited about what benefits AI will bring but I have a tough time envisioning their revenues and earnings materializing like that. There is a lot of hot air.

Furthermore, we have looming risks of a re-emergence of inflation (this time around at much higher Fed fund rates to begin with). Crude oil futures couldn’t break the 65 lows, and look poised to head north in the short term amid incoming geopolitical tensions triggered by tariffs if the 10 and 20 weekly EMAs serve as support zone:

https://preview.redd.it/tcairsu7shge1.png?width=3802&format=png&auto=webp&s=a5ec07bd2db9988f40f5f17614f887362cc25121

As a result, consumer demand could retreat again and the E in P/E deflates. Suddenly we are looking at skyrocketing P/E ratios again without even stock market prices rising. What naturally happens? The market panics and we could be up for a 20% correction to push prices back down to reasonable levels.

The pattern is similar to end of 2021 whereby the SPY failed multiple times to break a horizontal high: 472 then and 608 now. I think the market is anticipating something bad which is why it’s unwilling to go higher.

Let’s look at the technical picture in the monthly time frame. I drew in a parabolic curve that’s supposed to represent a fair value price zone:

https://preview.redd.it/a3dyx9o9shge1.png?width=2060&format=png&auto=webp&s=a58f80edcf83c57f80518c4f32bcf9c6bc494462

Zooming in, the volume profile suggests that significant buying volume starts at 475 and below. It’s quite thin air above 475 unfortunately. I added the expected drop from ATH below:

https://preview.redd.it/an8b6mbbshge1.png?width=2278&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a9c7b158933974e095fe8403a3480521f159851

Fun fact: Top to bottom ticks of the WFH rally and the current AI rally are a close match. 262 vs 263 handles.

https://preview.redd.it/oump4bq40jge1.png?width=2300&format=png&auto=webp&s=ac453ef8a81e924f60f319dc1401b526f45b18af

I’m playing this by holding S&P futures (ES) short and a little bit of Hang Seng futures (HSI) long. Futures because they have no theta (time decay) and are a great instrument for portfolio hedging. My goal is to look for a lower low and lower high downtrend to emerge, but quick to cut if we rally back above to the highs.

https://preview.redd.it/6ofgp6dmvige1.png?width=1616&format=png&auto=webp&s=2578c39ca7bddf567637c1e61b61664338c35a23

Please feel free to comment your thoughts, especially if I’m overlooking something.

TLDR; Short SPY or ES

Happy New Year 🐍

Since 1930, the year of the pig has had the best S&P 500 average annual return at a snorting 15%. In second, the rooster/rabbit, both at 12%/year. The tiger follows at 10%/year, the rat returns 9%/year, and the monkey an intelligent 8%/year. The Ox/horse/dragon/dog each average 6%/year, while sheep offer a baah-baric 5%/year. Regrettably the snake, which is this year’s animal, slithers in last at -2%/year.

Source: https://econ70.com/sad-snake/

Why do I always do this with 1k but whenever I put anything over that i get fucked :(

Base Formation and Breakout:

$Grab has built a solid 2.5-year base, a period of consolidation that often precedes significant price movements. This extended base indicates that the stock has been accumulating, with sellers exhausted and buyers stepping in.The recent breakout from this base is a critical signal. Breakouts from long-term bases often lead to substantial price moves as new buyers enter the market, and the stock transitions from accumulation to markup.

weekly time frame

https://preview.redd.it/wzeuen5k8gge1.png?width=678&format=png&auto=webp&s=f25398b42e8d59b768dc8f28a7c0ee40419391f7

Retest and Rally:

After the breakout, $Grab retested the base as support and held, followed by an explosive rally on high volume. This high-volume rally signals strong buying momentum and accumulation by institutional investors.The retest of the base as support is a bullish confirmation, as it shows that the breakout level has now become a strong floor for the stock.

Retracement and Support:

The stock retraced to the 0.5 Fibonacci level, a common retracement level in technical analysis, and found support at the 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This retracement is healthy and indicates that the stock is consolidating before the next leg up.The 21-week EMA is a key dynamic support level, and holding above it suggests that the overall trend remains bullish.

Breakout of Retracement Trendline:

$Grab has broken out of the retracement trendline and is currently retesting this trendline to confirm the breakout. A successful retest would validate the bullish momentum and set the stage for further upside.

Technical Indicators:

Daily RSI: At 42, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the lower range, indicating potential for upward movement without being overbought. This low RSI suggests there’s room for the stock to run higher.Daily MACD: A positive MACD crossover suggests increasing bullish momentum. The MACD histogram is also turning positive, indicating that bullish momentum is building.Squeeze Indicator: The indicator is very close to crossing into a positive squeeze, which could signal an imminent breakout. A squeeze indicates that volatility is contracting, and a sharp move (likely upward, given the bullish setup) could follow.Volume Analysis: The latest pullback has seen declining volume, a positive signal that selling pressure is waning. This suggests that the pullback is likely a consolidation phase rather than a reversal.

Daily timeframe

Fundamental Analysis

Balance Sheet Strength:

$Grab's balance sheet is robust, with free cash flow exceeding debt. This financial stability provides a strong foundation for future growth and reduces the risk of liquidity issues. A company with strong cash flow is better positioned to invest in growth opportunities and weather economic downturns.

Revenue Growth:

The company has demonstrated consistent positive revenue growth since Q1 2022. This growth trajectory is a key indicator of the company's ability to scale and capture market share. Revenue growth is a critical driver of stock price appreciation, especially for growth-oriented companies like $Grab.

Earnings Catalyst:

Earnings are scheduled to be reported on February 21. Positive earnings results could act as a catalyst, driving the stock price higher and confirming the bullish technical setup. Earnings reports often serve as inflection points for stocks, especially when combined with a strong technical setup.

Disclosure/position

https://preview.redd.it/l0vyxxjv8gge1.png?width=2160&format=png&auto=webp&s=89e602954a7f6385140fd474319256ac517fb904

(First post was removed)

Account broke 25k in December so I thought I'd try my hand at day trading.

Trades were based off rsi indicators and macd indicators.

Big winners were MSFT, RKLB, HOOD and pharma stock that is apparently blocked on this sub.

Hope it hasn't just been dumb luck, it would be cool to be a douchey finance bro.

Just a slight yolo

TL;DR: Grandma dipped 5 years ago, left me nothing. Mom gives me $100k to buy a house. Me? Bought Intel stock. I can already hear her saying, “I’m so proud of you” when I show her my portfolio 🦍🍌

It was a good day, definitely left a lot out there but happy as a clam to come out today unscathed. Fucking Reuters had me sweating early.

Bought at an 23$ average in December Thanks zuccy

M

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Saw the sudden draw down with momentum and decided to put everything I have on QQQ puts for some quick buck, after entering the next candle shot up green and I was down A WHOLE LOT. Paper hands me decided I needed to cut loss and sold. In the next 10 to 15 mins QQQ decided to go even lower, if I held on i would have been up 300%...

It is today where I joined the ranks on the regarded. Time to apply for a job a Mcdonalds. Good game for me

https://preview.redd.it/1e9rh5h33ege1.png?width=980&format=png&auto=webp&s=c46fc9d6765969c713568f52c6b3f1333e944068

https://preview.redd.it/iptdv4763ege1.png?width=1097&format=png&auto=webp&s=c0d755514e4f6f9d029958ea91118e3a611b9171

Either I make it to the millionaire world or I go behind Wendy’s dumpster. Help me out Lisa 😘

I should have sold then it went up the other day but I got greedy and didn’t. Yall think there’s still hope for this poor fuck.