/r/TropicalWeather
The intent of this subreddit is to provide a centralized location to discuss tropical cyclone, including their climatology, their development, their movement, and their impacts to life, property, and the environment. The moderator staff strives to minimize excessive speculation and fearmongering and to distribute and emphasize lifesaving information from official sources.
/r/TropicalWeather
Last updated: Friday, 29 November — 11:30 PM India Standard Time (IST; 18:00 UTC)
JTWC Warning #1 | 11:30 PM IST (18:00 UTC) | |
---|---|---|
Current location: | 12.4°N 81.8°E | |
Relative location: | 183 km (114 mi) ESE of Chennai, Tamil Nadu (India) | |
Forward motion: | NW (330°) at 11 km/h (6 knots) | |
Maximum winds: | ▲ | 75 km/h (40 knots) |
Intensity (SSHWS): | ▲ | Tropical Storm |
Intensity (IMD): | ▲ | Cyclonic Storm [see note] |
Minimum pressure: | ▼ | 990 millibars (29.23 inches) |
^NOTE ^- ^Based ^on ^the ^India ^Meteorological ^Department's ^ten-minute ^maximum ^sustained ^wind ^estimate ^of ^70 ^kilometers ^per ^hour ^(40 ^knots).
Last updated: Friday, 29 November — 11:30 PM IST (15:00 UTC)
(Note: Wind speeds have been converted from ten-minute values to one-minute values.)
Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
— | UTC | IST | IMD | knots | km/h | °N | °E | ||
00 | 29 Nov | 15:00 | 8PM Fri | Cyclonic Storm | 40 | 70 | 11.6 | 81.7 | |
03 | 29 Nov | 18:00 | 11PM Fri | Cyclonic Storm | 40 | 75 | 11.7 | 81.4 | |
09 | 30 Nov | 00:00 | 5AM Sat | Cyclonic Storm | ▲ | 45 | 80 | 11.8 | 80.9 |
15 | 30 Nov | 06:00 | 11AM Sat | Cyclonic Storm | 45 | 80 | 11.9 | 80.3 | |
21 | 30 Nov | 12:00 | 5PM Sat | Deep Depression ^2 | ▼ | 35 | 65 | 12.0 | 79.5 |
45 | 01 Dec | 12:00 | 5PM Sun | Depression ^2 | ▼ | 30 | 55 | 12.1 | 78.0 |
Friday, 29 November — 11:30 PM India Standard Time (18:00 UTC)
Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
— | UTC | IST | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °E | ||
00 | 29 Nov | 18:00 | 11PM Fri | Tropical Storm | 40 | 75 | 12.4 | 81.8 | |
12 | 29 Nov | 06:00 | 11AM Sat | Tropical Storm | 40 | 75 | 12.8 | 81.2 | |
24 | 30 Nov | 18:00 | 11PM Sat | Tropical Storm | ▼ | 35 | 65 | 13.0 | 80.8 |
36 | 30 Nov | 06:00 | 11AM Sun | Tropical Storm ^1 | 35 | 65 | 13.1 | 80.3 | |
48 | 01 Dec | 18:00 | 11PM Sun | Remnant Low ^2 | ▼ | 30 | 55 | 13.0 | 79.6 |
NOTES:
1 - Along the coast
2 - Inland
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Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
Last updated: Friday, 29 November — 6:30 AM Cocos Islands Time (CCT; 00:00 UTC)
JTWC Warning #4 | 6:30 AM CCT (00:00 UTC) | |
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Current location: | 17.4°S 92.5°E | |
Relative location: | 743 km (452 mi) SW of West Island, Cocos Islands (Australia) | |
Forward motion: | SE (135°) at 15 km/h (8 knots) | |
Maximum winds: | ▼ | 95 km/h (50 knots) |
Intensity (SSHWS): | Tropical Storm | |
Intensity (BOM): | ▼ | Cyclone (Category 2) |
Minimum pressure: | ▲ | 993 millibars (29.32 inches) |
Last updated: Friday, 29 November — 6:30 AM CCT (0:00 UTC)
Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
— | UTC | CCT | BOM | knots | km/h | °S | °E | ||
00 | 29 Nov | 00:00 | 6AM Fri | Cyclone (Category 1) | 45 | 85 | 17.4 | 92.3 | |
12 | 29 Nov | 12:00 | 6PM Fri | Cyclone (Category 1) | ▼ | 40 | 75 | 18.2 | 92.5 |
24 | 30 Nov | 00:00 | 6AM Sat | Tropical Low | ▼ | 30 | 55 | 18.2 | 91.6 |
36 | 30 Nov | 12:00 | 6PM Sat | Tropical Low | 30 | 55 | 17.7 | 90.3 | |
48 | 01 Dec | 00:00 | 6AM Sun | Tropical Low | 30 | 55 | 17.4 | 88.7 | |
60 | 01 Dec | 12:00 | 6PM Sun | Tropical Low | ▼ | 25 | 45 | 17.4 | 86.8 |
72 | 02 Dec | 12:00 | 6AM Mon | Tropical Low | 25 | 45 | 17.6 | 85.0 |
Last updated: Friday, 29 November — 6:30 AM CCT (00:00 UTC)
Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
— | UTC | CCT | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °E | ||
00 | 29 Nov | 00:00 | 6AM Fri | Tropical Storm | 50 | 95 | 17.4 | 92.5 | |
12 | 29 Nov | 12:00 | 6PM Fri | Tropical Storm | ▼ | 40 | 75 | 18.1 | 93.1 |
24 | 30 Nov | 00:00 | 6AM Sat | Tropical Storm | ▼ | 35 | 65 | 18.6 | 92.6 |
36 | 30 Nov | 12:00 | 6PM Sat | Remnant Low | ▼ | 30 | 55 | 18.6 | 91.7 |
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
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Weathernerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weathernerds: ECENS (120 hours)
Last updated: Saturday, 23 November — 21:00 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC)
I'm talking about these types of storms: Nisha-Orama (Officially a Category 3), Hina (Officially a Category 4), Dianmu (Officially 915 hPA - how????) Olaf (2005), and more. I put satellite images of the storms which literally just shows the underestimation, you can tell they're stronger.
Why do the strongest typhoons often hit the Philippines in November? Super Typhoon Haiyan struck on November 8, Super Typhoon Goni on November 1, and this month alone, the Philippines has already been hit by four typhoons, and two of them are super typhoons. (im a newbie when it comes to tropical cyclones, i was just curious)
Last updated: Saturday, 23 November — 21:00 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC)
Last updated: Tuesday, 19 November — 1:00 PM Indochina Time (ICT; 06:00 UTC)
JTWC Warning #42 | 1:00 PM ICT (06:00 UTC) | |
---|---|---|
Current location: | 18.8°N 113.0°E | |
Relative location: | 275 km (171 mi) E of Wanning, Hainan (China) | |
Forward motion: | WSW (265°) at 19 km/h (10 knots) | |
Maximum winds: | ▼ | 55 km/h (30 knots) |
Intensity (SSHWS): | ▼ | Tropical Depression |
Intensity (JMA): | Tropical Storm [see note] | |
Minimum pressure: | ▲ | 1002 millibars (29.59 inches) |
^NOTE ^- ^Based ^on ^the ^Japan ^Meteorological ^Agency's ^ten-minute ^maximum ^sustained ^wind ^estimate ^of ^75 ^kilometers ^per ^hour ^(40 ^knots).
Last updated: Tuesday, 19 November — 4:00 PM ICT (09:00 UTC)
Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
— | UTC | ICT | JMA | knots | km/h | °N | °E | ||
00 | 19 Nov | 09:00 | 4PM Tue | Tropical Storm | 40 | 75 | 18.5 | 112.5 | |
12 | 19 Nov | 21:00 | 4AM Wed | Tropical Storm | ▼ | 35 | 65 | 17.5 | 110.8 |
24 | 20 Nov | 09:00 | 4PM Wed | Tropical Depression | ▼ | 30 | 55 | 16.3 | 109.9 |
Last updated: Tuesday, 19 November — 4:00 PM ICT (09:00 UTC)
Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
— | UTC | ICT | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °E | ||
00 | 19 Nov | 06:00 | 1PM Tue | Tropical Depression | 30 | 55 | 18.8 | 113.0 | |
12 | 19 Nov | 18:00 | 1AM Wed | Tropical Depression | ▼ | 25 | 45 | 17.9 | 111.2 |
24 | 20 Nov | 06:00 | 1PM Wed | Remnant Low | ▼ | 20 | 35 | 16.7 | 109.3 |
36 | 20 Nov | 18:00 | 1AM Thu | Dissipated |
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Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
I understand airports can close due to wind, flooding, power outages, etc, but i'm mostly curious about winds. What are the time-windows which typically cause delays and cancellations at airports due to winds? Hrs or days?
Example, TropStorm 19 might be a hurricane, likely passing NE just south of Cancun Monday AM, I'm curious when the these winds might begin and when they might be gone. I see Arrival Time of TS Winds charts, but how long do those periods last? Would winds be gone by Tue in the example above?
Last updated: Sunday, 17 November — 9:00 PM Central Standard Time (CST; 03:00 UTC)
NHC Advisory #18 | 9:00 PM CST (03:00 UTC) | |
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Current location: | 18.1°N 90.7°W | |
Relative location: | 490 km (304 mi) WNW of La Ceiba, Honduras | |
Forward motion: | WNW (300°) at 20 km/h (11 knots) | |
Maximum winds: | 45 km/h (25 knots) | |
Intensity: | Tropical Depression | |
Minimum pressure: | 1004 millibars (29.65 inches) |
Last updated: Sunday, 17 November — 6:00 PM CST (00:00 UTC)
Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
- | UTC | CST | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °W | ||
00 | 18 Nov | 00:00 | 6PM Sun | Tropical Depression | 25 | 45 | 18.1 | 90.7 | |
12 | 18 Nov | 12:00 | 6AM Mon | Remnant Low | ▼ | 20 | 35 | 19.3 | 92.0 |
24 | 19 Nov | 00:00 | 6PM Mon | Dissipated |
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
Last updated: Saturday, 23 November — 4:00 PM Reunion Time (RET; 12:00 UTC)
ATCF | 4:00 PM RET (12:00 UTC) | |
---|---|---|
Current location: | 23.3°S 52.1°E | |
Relative location: | 439 km (273 mi) SW of Saint-Denis, Réunion (France) | |
Forward motion: | ▼ | SE (150°) at 7 km/h (4 knots) |
Maximum winds: | 35 km/h (20 knots) | |
Minimum pressure: | 1007 millibars (29.74 inches) |
Both Météo-France and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center have assessed this system to have degenerated into a remnant low and have thus discontinued issuing forecast advisory products for it. This post will only update until this system's position and intensity are no longer being updated in the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
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Weathernerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weathernerds: ECENS (120 hours)
Last updated: Thursday, 14 November — 8:00 AM Philippine Standard Time (PhST; 00:00 UTC)
JTWC Warning #20 | 8:00 AM PhST (00:00 UTC) | |
---|---|---|
Current location: | 21.0°N 114.0°E | |
Relative location: | 148 km (92 mi) S of Hong Kong | |
Forward motion: | WSW (255°) at 7 km/h (4 knots) | |
Maximum winds: | ▼ | 45 km/h (25 knots) |
Intensity (SSHWS): | Tropical Depression | |
Intensity (JMA): | Tropical Storm [see note] | |
Minimum pressure: | ▲ | 1005 millibars (29.68 inches) |
^NOTE ^- ^Based ^on ^the ^Japan ^Meteorological ^Agency's ^ten-minute ^maximum ^sustained ^wind ^estimate ^of ^65 ^kilometers ^per ^hour ^(35 ^knots).
Last updated: Thursday, 14 November — 2:00 PM PhST (06:00 UTC)
Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
— | UTC | PhST | JMA | knots | km/h | °N | °E | ||
00 | 14 Nov | 06:00 | 2PM Thu | Tropical Storm | 35 | 65 | 21.2 | 113.9 | |
12 | 14 Nov | 18:00 | 2AM Fri | Tropical Depression | ▼ | 30 | 55 | 21.2 | 113.2 |
24 | 15 Nov | 06:00 | 2PM Fri | Tropical Depression | 30 | 55 | 21.0 | 112.6 |
Last updated: Thursday, 14 November — 11:00 AM PhST (03:00 UTC)
NOTE: The JTWC has issued its final advisory for this system.
Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
— | UTC | PhST | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °E | ||
00 | 14 Nov | 00:00 | 8AM Thu | Tropical Depression | 25 | 45 | 21.0 | 114.0 | |
12 | 14 Nov | 12:00 | 8PM Thu | Remnant Low | ▼ | 20 | 35 | 20.9 | 113.4 |
24 | 15 Nov | 00:00 | 8AM Fri | Remnant Low | ▼ | 15 | 30 | 20.7 | 113.2 |
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Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
Last updated: Thursday, 14 November — 10:00 AM Eastern Standard Time (EST; 15:00 UTC)
NHC Advisory #4 | 10:00 AM EST (15:00 UTC) | |
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Current location: | 15.7°N 82.6°W | |
Relative location: | 449 km (279 mi) E of La Ceiba, Honduras | |
Forward motion: | W (265°) at 22 km/h (12 knots) | |
Maximum winds: | 55 km/h (30 knots) | |
Intensity: | Tropical Depression | |
Minimum pressure: | 1004 millibars (29.65 inches) |
Last updated: Thursday, 14 November — 7:00 AM EST (12:00 UTC)
Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
- | UTC | EST | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °W | ||
00 | 14 Nov | 12:00 | 7AM Thu | Tropical Depression | 30 | 55 | 15.7 | 82.6 | |
12 | 15 Nov | 00:00 | 7PM Thu | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 35 | 65 | 15.7 | 83.7 |
24 | 15 Nov | 12:00 | 7AM Fri | Tropical Storm ^1 | ▲ | 40 | 75 | 15.9 | 84.9 |
36 | 16 Nov | 00:00 | 7PM Fri | Tropical Storm ^1 | 40 | 75 | 15.9 | 85.4 | |
48 | 16 Nov | 12:00 | 7AM Sat | Tropical Storm ^1 | 40 | 75 | 15.9 | 85.8 | |
60 | 17 Nov | 00:00 | 7PM Sat | Tropical Storm ^1 | ▲ | 45 | 85 | 16.0 | 86.2 |
72 | 17 Nov | 12:00 | 7AM Sun | Tropical Storm ^2 | 45 | 85 | 16.2 | 87.0 | |
96 | 18 Nov | 12:00 | 7AM Mon | Tropical Depression ^3 | ▼ | 30 | 55 | 18.0 | 89.6 |
120 | 19 Nov | 12:00 | 7AM Tue | Tropical Depression ^4 | 30 | 55 | 21.7 | 91.6 |
^NOTES:
^1 ^- ^Near ^the ^coast ^of ^Honduras
^2 ^- ^Over ^the ^Gulf ^of ^Honduras
^3 ^- ^Inland ^over ^Mexico
^4 ^- ^Over ^the ^Gulf ^of Mexico
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
Yinxing, Toraji, Usagi, and Man-yi
Last updated: Wednesday, 13 November — 6:00 AM Central Standard Time (CST; 12:00 UTC)
ATCF | 6:00 AM CST (12:00 UTC) | |
---|---|---|
Current location: | 16.1°N 77.6°W | |
Relative location: | 226 km (140 mi) SSW of Kingston, Jamaica | |
Forward motion: | ▼ | SW (225°) at 5 km/h (3 knots) |
Maximum winds: | 35 km/h (20 knots) | |
Minimum pressure: | 1007 millibars (29.74 inches) | |
2-day potential: (through 6AM Fri) | ▲ | high (90 percent) |
7-day potential: (through 6AM Tue) | high (90 percent) |
Last updated: Wednesday, 13 November — 6:00 AM CST (12:00 UTC)
Discussion by Daniel Brown — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit
A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea.
Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend. The system is expected to turn slowly northwestward by early next week. Interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected over Jamaica during the next day or so. For more information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today.
Last updated: Wednesday, 13 November — 7:19 AM EST (12:19 UTC)
Radar imagery from the Meteorological Service of Jamaica is not currently available.
Pilón radar (covers Jamaica)
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
Last updated: Tuesday, 12 November — 7:00 PM Indochina Time (ICT; 12:00 UTC)
JTWC Warning #38 | 7:00 PM ICT (12:00 UTC) | |
---|---|---|
Current location: | 14.0°N 108.6°E | |
Relative location: | 74 km (46 mi) WNW of Qui Nhon, Binh Dinh (Vietnam) | |
Forward motion: | WSW (265°) at 15 km/h (8 knots) | |
Maximum winds: | ▼ | 45 km/h (25 knots) |
Intensity (SSHWS): | Remnant Low | |
Minimum pressure: | ▲ | 1004 millibars (29.65 inches) |
^NOTE ^- ^Based ^on ^the ^Japan ^Meteorological ^Agency's ^ten-minute ^maximum ^sustained ^wind ^estimate ^of ^120 ^kilometers ^per ^hour ^(65 ^knots).
The JMA is no longer issuing advisories for this system.
Last updated: Tuesday, 12 November — 10:00 PM ICT (15:00 UTC)
The JTWC is no longer issuing advisories for this system.
Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
— | UTC | ICT | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °E | ||
00 | 12 Nov | 12:00 | 7PM Tue | Remnant Low | 25 | 45 | 14.0 | 108.6 | |
12 | 12 Nov | 00:00 | 7AM Wed | Remnant Low | ▼ | 20 | 35 | 13.9 | 107.0 |
24 | 13 Nov | 12:00 | 7PM Wed | Remnant Low | ▼ | 15 | 30 | 13.9 | 105.2 |
36 | 13 Nov | 00:00 | 7AM Thu | Dissipated |
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Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
Last updated: Saturday, 16 November — 8:00 AM Philippine Standard Time (PhST; 00:00 UTC)
JTWC Warning #21 | 8:00 AM PhST (00:00 UTC) | |
---|---|---|
Current location: | 22.5°N 120.3°E | |
Relative location: | 15 km (9 mi) SSW of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan | |
Forward motion: | NE (50°) at 9 km/h (5 knots) | |
Maximum winds: | ▼ | 55 km/h (30 knots) |
Intensity (SSHWS): | ▼ | Tropical Depression |
Intensity (JMA): | Tropical Storm [see note] | |
Minimum pressure: | ▲ | 1002 millibars (29.59 inches) |
^NOTE ^- ^Based ^on ^the ^Japan ^Meteorological ^Agency's ^ten-minute ^maximum ^sustained ^wind ^estimate ^of ^65 ^kilometers ^per ^hour ^(35 ^knots).
Last updated: Saturday, 16 November — 8:00 AM PhST (00:00 UTC)
Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
— | UTC | PhST | JMA | knots | km/h | °N | °E | ||
00 | 16 Nov | 00:00 | 8AM Sat | Tropical Storm | 35 | 65 | 22.2 | 120.2 | |
12 | 16 Nov | 12:00 | 8PM Sat | Tropical Depression ^1 | ▼ | 30 | 55 | 22.8 | 121.3 |
24 | 17 Nov | 00:00 | 8AM Sun | Tropical Depression | 30 | 55 | 23.4 | 121.7 |
Last updated: Saturday, 16 November — 11:00 AM PhST (03:00 UTC)
Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
— | UTC | PhST | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °E | ||
00 | 16 Nov | 00:00 | 8AM Sat | Tropical Depression ^1 | 30 | 55 | 22.5 | 120.3 | |
12 | 16 Nov | 12:00 | 8PM Sat | Tropical Depression ^1 | ▼ | 25 | 45 | 23.4 | 121.2 |
24 | 17 Nov | 00:00 | 8AM Sun | Remnant Low ^1 | ▼ | 20 | 35 | 24.3 | 121.3 |
^NOTES:
^1 ^— Inland ^over ^Taiwan
^2 ^— Offshore ^to ^the ^east ^of ^Taiwan
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Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
Last updated: Thursday, 14 November — 15:30 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC)
There are currently no other active cyclones or disturbances.