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Current discussions Global Outlook Ophelia Philippe Fourteen-E

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16L — Ophelia

17L — Philippe

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14E — Fourteen

 

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8

Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 25 September - 1 October 2023

Current discussions


Please refer to the list below for individual discussions on selected cyclones and disturbances:

Northern Atlantic

Active cyclones


Last updated: Monday, 25 September 2023 — 04:00 UTC

Northern Atlantic

17L — Philippe

Discussion by: /u/giantspeck

Philippe—the storm, not the forecaster—has not undergone any significant changes in strength or structure over the past several hours as it continues west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions will likely be just favorable enough for the storm to maintain strength within the next couple of days, as stronger mid-level shear prevents further convective development. Some strengthening is possible later this week as Philippe turns northwestward away from this shear. However, the intensity forecast remains highly uncertain through the end of the week.

Active disturbances


Last updated: Monday, 25 September 2023 — 04:00 UTC

Northern Atlantic

1. Disturbance 1: Southeastern Gulf of Mexico

Discussion by: Dr. Philippe Papin — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in association with a surface trough of low pressure and an upper-level trough. Further development, if any, is expected to be slow to occur over the next few days while the system moves slowly westward. By the middle of the week, upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for additional development.

2. Disturbance 2: Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean (Invest 91L)

Discussion by Dr. Philippe Papin — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is now likely to form around mid-week as the system moves west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.

Eastern Pacific

97E — Invest

Discussion by: John Cangialosi — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Gradual development of the disturbance is likely, and a tropical depression is expected to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves generally westward across the central and western parts of the eastern Pacific basin.

Western Pacific

1. Disturbance 1 — South China Sea (Invest 91W)

Discussion by: /u/giantspeck

A broad and elongated area of low pressure situated a few hundred kilometers southeast of Qui Nhon, Vietnam continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions remain favorable enough that the disturbance could briefly become a tropical depression or storm over the next couple of days as it moves northwestward toward the coast. The disturbance, whether it undergoes further development or not, is likely to make landfall by Wednesday and bring heavy rainfall to the region through the end of the week.

2. Disturbance 2 — West-Central Pacific Ocean (Invest 92W)

Discussion by: /u/giantspeck

A broad area of low pressure situated several hundred kilometers northwest of Guam is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although strong shear has displaced the bulk of the disturbance's convection toward the east and has exposed its low-level center, environmental conditions could become more favorable later this week. The disturbance is expected to drift westward over the next few days and a short-lived tropical depression could develop by midweek.

Satellite imagery


Regional imagery

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Information sources


Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

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Global outlooks


Climate Prediction Center

0 Comments
2023/09/25
04:02 UTC

94

The NHC is monitoring an area of disturbed weather over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico

Outlook discussion


Updated: Monday, 25 September – 1:00 PM Central Daylight Time (18:00 UTC)

Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:

Discussion by: John Cangialosi (NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit) and Stephen Konarik (NHC Tropical Analysis & Forecast Branch)

A trough of low pressure is producing limited shower activity over portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance is moving westward into unfavorable environmental conditions, and development is not expected.

Development potential1:00 PM CDT (18:00 UTC)
Next two days:low (near 0 percent)
Next seven days:low (near 0 percent)

Official information


National Hurricane Center

Please note that the outlook graphic mirrors are only manually rehosted whenever the post is updated. They will not update dynamically and will occasionally be outdated.

Radar imagery


Unavailable

Radar imagery is currently unavailable for this system.

Satellite imagery


Regional imagery

Gulf of Mexico / Caribbean Sea:

Forecast models


Ensembles

WeatherNerds

Dynamical

Tropical Tidbits

38 Comments
2023/09/24
21:12 UTC

31

91L (Invest — Northern Atlantic)

Latest Observation


Monday, 25 September — 2:00 PM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 18:00 UTC)

ATCF2:00 PM AST (18:00 UTC)
Current location:10.7°N 32.6°W
Relative location:3,239 km (2,013 mi) E of Codrington, Barbuda (Antigua and Barbuda)
Forward motion:W (285°) at 36 km/h (19 knots)
Maximum winds:35 km/h (20 knots)
Minimum pressure:1010 millibars (29.83 inches)
Potential (2-day):low (30 percent)
Potential (5-day):high (80 percent)

Outlook discussion


Updated: Monday, 25 September – 8:00 PM Atlantic Standard Time (00:00 UTC)

Eastern Tropical Atlantic

Discussion by: Dr. Philippe Papin and Eric Blake — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in 2-3 days as the system moves west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.

Official information


National Hurricane Center

Satellite imagery


Storm-specific imagery

Regional imagery

Analysis graphics and data


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Sea-surface Temperatures

Model guidance


Storm-specific guidance

Regional single-model guidance

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS

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Regional ensemble model guidance

12 Comments
2023/09/24
14:09 UTC

13

14E (Eastern Pacific)

Latest observation


Last updated: Sunday, 24 September — 8:00 PM Pacific Daylight Time (PDT; 03:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #68:00 PM PDT (03:00 UTC)
Current location:15.0°N 126.5°W
Relative location:3,074 km (1,910 mi) E of Hilo, Hawaii
Forward motion:W (270°) at 12 knots (22 km/h)
Maximum winds:45 km/h (25 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS):Remnant Low
Minimum pressure:1008 millibars (29.77 inches)

Official forecast


Last updated: Sunday, 24 September — 8:00 PM Pacific Daylight Time (PDT; 03:00 UTC)

NOTE: The National Hurricane Center has discontinued issuing advisories for this system. There will be no further updates.

HourDateTimeIntensityWindsLatLong
 -UTCPDTSaffir-Simpsonknotskm/h°N°W
0025 Sep00:005PM SunRemnant Low254515.0126.5
1225 Sep12:005AM MonRemnant Low254514.9128.4
2426 Sep00:005PM MonRemnant Low254514.6131.1
3626 Sep12:005AM TueRemnant Low254513.9134.0
4827 Sep00:005PM TueDissipated
# Official information
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
## National Hurricane Center

Advisories

Graphics

Radar imagery


Unavailable

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery


Storm-specific imagery

Regional imagery

Analysis graphics and data


Wind analyses

Sea-surface Temperatures

Model guidance


Storm-specific guidance

Regional single-model guidance

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS

  • Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

  • Tropical Tidbits: CMC

  • Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

3 Comments
2023/09/23
20:51 UTC

30

Philippe (17L — Northern Atlantic)

Latest observation


Last updated: Tuesday, 26 September — 5:00 AM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 09:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #125:00 AM AST (09:00 UTC)
Current location:17.7°N 49.0°W
Relative location:1,358 km (844 mi) E of Codrington, Barbuda (Antigua and Barbuda)
Forward motion:WNW (285°) at 11 knots (20 km/h)
Maximum winds:85 km/h (45 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS):Tropical Storm
Minimum pressure:1001 millibars (29.56 inches)

Official forecast


Last updated: Tuesday, 26 September — 5:00 AM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 09:00 UTC)

HourDateTimeIntensityWindsLatLong
 -UTCASTSaffir-Simpsonknotskm/h°N°W
0026 Sep06:002AM TueTropical Storm458517.749.0
1226 Sep18:002PM TueTropical Storm458518.250.4
2427 Sep06:002AM WedTropical Storm458519.152.1
3627 Sep18:002PM WedTropical Storm458520.153.9
4828 Sep06:002AM ThuTropical Storm407521.055.4
6028 Sep18:002PM ThuTropical Storm407521.656.9
7229 Sep06:002AM FriTropical Storm356521.958.2
9630 Sep06:002AM SatTropical Depression305521.860.9
12001 Oct06:002AM SunRemnant Low254521.863.6

Official information


National Hurricane Center

Advisories

Graphics

Aircraft reconnaissance


National Hurricane Center

Tropical Tidbits

Radar imagery


Unavailable

Radar imagery is currently unavailable for this system.

Satellite imagery


Storm-specific imagery

Regional imagery

Analysis graphics and data


Wind analyses

Sea-surface Temperatures

Model guidance


Storm-specific guidance

Regional single-model guidance

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS

  • Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

  • Tropical Tidbits: CMC

  • Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

14 Comments
2023/09/23
20:45 UTC

19

Tropical Storm Ophelia video update from the National Hurricane Center — Saturday, 23 September 2023

1 Comment
2023/09/23
15:11 UTC

15

Interview about D-SNAP benefits for those impacted by Hurricane Idalia

Hey! I'm reporting for WUFT News and I'm doing a story on D-SNAP benefits being open for people impacted by the recent hurricane starting on Sept. 25. If you or anyone you know is planning on receiving these benefits and is comfortable being interviewed, please let me know as soon as possible!

Thank you!

Here is more info about it: https://myflfamilies.com/DSNAP

https://www.myflfamilies.com/sites/default/files/2023-09/DSNAP_Hurricane_Idalia_Flyer_English_19sept23.pdf

1 Comment
2023/09/22
19:13 UTC

94

Ophelia (16L — Northern Atlantic)

Latest observation


Last updated: Sunday, 24 September — 5:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 09:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #125:00 AM EDT (09:00 UTC)
Current location:37.7°N 77.3°W
Relative location:85 mi (136 km) S of Washington, DC
Forward motion:NNE (20°) at 10 knots (12 mph)
Maximum winds:25 mph (20 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS):Remnant Low
Minimum pressure:1007 millibars (29.74 inches)

Official forecast


Last updated: Sunday, 24 September — 5:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 09:00 UTC)

HourDateTimeIntensityWindsLatLong
 -UTCEDTSaffir-Simpsonknotsmph°N°W
0024 Sep06:002AM SunRemnant Low202537.777.3
1224 Sep18:002PM SunRemnant Low202539.276.5
2425 Sep06:002AM MonRemnant Low253039.374.9
3625 Sep18:002PM MonRemnant Low253038.972.9
4826 Sep06:002AM TueDissipated

Official information


Weather Prediction Center

Advisories

Graphics

National Weather Service

NWS Wakefield, VA

NWS Baltimore, MD / Washington, DC

NWS Philadelphia, MD / Mt. Holly, NJ

Aircraft reconnaissance


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  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS

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  • Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

197 Comments
2023/09/22
17:57 UTC

8

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen video update from the National Hurricane Center — Friday, 22 September 2023

1 Comment
2023/09/22
17:38 UTC

10

Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 18-24 September 2023

Current discussions


Please refer to the list below for individual discussions on selected cyclones and disturbances:

Northern Atlantic

Active cyclones


Last updated: Saturday, 22 September 2023 — 08:00 UTC

Northern Atlantic

16L — Ophelia

Discussion by: /u/giantspeck

Ophelia is maintaining intensity just below hurricane strength as it moves slowly north-northwestward toward the North Carolina coast. The storm has very little time left over warm waters and is unlikely to undergo further development before making landfall later this morning. Strong winds, heavy rainfall, and life-threatening storm surge are likely to spread to the mid-Atlantic states over the weekend as Ophelia gradually turns northward.

Active disturbances


Last updated: Thursday, 21 September 2023 — 20:00 UTC

Northern Atlantic

90L — Invest

Discussion by: Larry Kelly — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. A tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is then expected to turn west-northwestward early next week as it moves over the central tropical Atlantic.

Eastern Pacific

97E — Invest

Discussion by: John Cangialosi — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Gradual development of the disturbance is likely, and a tropical depression is expected to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves generally westward across the central and western parts of the eastern Pacific basin.

Central Pacific

91C — Invest

Discussion by: Sam Houston — CPHC Forecaster

A weak area of low pressure located more than 700 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii continues to have sporadic disorganized thunderstorms displaced to the east. Strong upper-level winds will likely continue to inhibit any significant development of this system as it moves westward at around 10 mph.

Western Pacific

91W — Invest

Discussion by: /u/giantspeck

A broad area of low pressure situated over the South China Sea continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions should remain favorable through the weekend to allow the disturbance to gradually consolidate as it moves westward along the base of a subtropical ridge. There is an increasing chance that this system could become a tropical depression by early next week as it approaches the coast of Vietnam.

Satellite imagery


Regional imagery

Infrared imagery

Model guidance


Regional guidance (GFS)

Information sources


Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks


Climate Prediction Center

8 Comments
2023/09/21
16:39 UTC

18

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen video update from the National Hurricane Center — Thursday, 21 September 2023

1 Comment
2023/09/21
15:44 UTC

20

Strength/direction question

Do hurricanes move north quicker based on strength? For example if a hurricane 1 had the same environment around it as a hurricane 4, would the 4 move north faster?

4 Comments
2023/09/21
01:13 UTC

25

Kenneth (13E — Eastern Pacific)

Latest observation


Last updated: Friday, 22 September — 8:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (PDT; 15:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #138:00 AM PDT (15:00 UTC)
Current location:20.5°N 125.8°W
Relative location:1,663 km (1,033 mi) WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur (Mexico)
Forward motion:N (5°) at 10 knots (19 km/h)
Maximum winds:55 km/h (30 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS):Remnant Low
Minimum pressure:1005 millibars (29.68 inches)

Official forecast


Last updated: Friday, 22 September — 8:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (PDT; 15:00 UTC)

NOTE: The National Hurricane Center has issued its final advisory for Kenneth. There will be no further updates to the forecast information depicted below.

HourDateTimeIntensityWindsLatLong
 -UTCPDTSaffir-Simpsonknotskm/h°N°W
0022 Sep12:005AM FriRemnant Low305520.5125.8
1223 Sep00:005PM FriRemnant Low254521.8125.7
2423 Sep12:005AM SatRemnant Low203522.8126.1
3624 Sep00:005PM SatDissipated

Official information


National Hurricane Center

Advisories

Graphics

Radar imagery


Unavailable

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery


Storm-specific imagery

Regional imagery

Analysis graphics and data


Wind analyses

Sea-surface Temperatures

Model guidance


Storm-specific guidance

Regional single-model guidance

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS

  • Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

  • Tropical Tidbits: CMC

  • Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

5 Comments
2023/09/19
20:43 UTC

0

Weather Channel VS NHC Screen Grab 9/18/2023. Why The Discrepancy?

32 Comments
2023/09/18
17:25 UTC

74

Is it just me or is the UK about to be hit by two tropical storm systems almost at the same time next week?

41 Comments
2023/09/18
13:43 UTC

36

Nigel (15L — Northern Atlantic)

Latest observation


Last updated: Friday, 22 September — 9:00 AM Greenwich Mean Time (GMT; 09:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #289:00 AM GMT (09:00 UTC)
Current location:46.3°N 32.6°W
Relative location:3,146 km (1,955 mi) ENE of Ilha das Flores, Azores (Portugal)
Forward motion:NE (55°) at 32 knots (59 km/h)
Maximum winds:110 km/h (60 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS):Post-tropical Cyclone
Minimum pressure:976 millibars (28.82 inches)

Official forecast


Last updated: Friday, 22 September — 9:00 AM Greenwich Mean Time (GMT; 09:00 UTC)

NOTE: This is the final forecast from the National Hurricane Center. There will be no further updates for this system.

HourDateTimeIntensityWindsLatLong
 -UTCGMTSaffir-Simpsonknotskm/h°N°W
0022 Sep06:006AM FriPost-tropical Cyclone6011046.332.6
1222 Sep18:006PM FriExtratropical Cyclone509548.827.2
2423 Sep06:006AM SatExtratropical Cyclone509553.023.0
3623 Sep18:006PM SatExtratropical Cyclone509556.423.3
4824 Sep06:006AM SunDissipated

Official information


National Hurricane Center

Advisories

Graphics

Aircraft reconnaissance


National Hurricane Center

Tropical Tidbits

Radar imagery


Radar imagery is not yet available for this system.

Satellite imagery


Storm-specific imagery

Regional imagery

Analysis graphics and data


Wind analyses

Sea-surface Temperatures

Model guidance


Storm-specific guidance

Regional single-model guidance

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS

  • Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

  • Tropical Tidbits: CMC

  • Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

30 Comments
2023/09/17
02:47 UTC

16

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee video update from the National Hurricane Center — Saturday, 16 September 2023

0 Comments
2023/09/16
15:20 UTC

4

12E (Eastern Pacific)

Latest observation


Saturday, 16 September — 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (HST; 15:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #45:00 AM HST (15:00 UTC)
Current location:14.5°N 138.6°W
Relative location:1,845 km (1,146 mi) ESE of Hilo, Hawaii
Forward motion:W (265°) at 10 knots (12 mph)
Maximum winds:35 mph (30 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS):Tropical Depression
Minimum pressure:1006 millibars (29.71 inches)

Official forecast


Saturday, 16 September — 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (HST; 15:00 UTC)

HourDateTimeIntensityWindsLatLong
 -UTCHSTSaffir-Simpsonknotsmph°N°W
0016 Sep12:002AM SatTropical Depression303514.5138.6
1217 Sep00:002PM SatTropical Depression303514.2139.9
2417 Sep12:002AM SunRemnant Low253013.8141.5
3618 Sep00:002PM SunRemnant Low202513.3143.5
4818 Sep12:002AM MonDissipated

Official information


National Hurricane Center

Advisories

Graphics

Radar imagery


Unavailable

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery


Storm-specific imagery

Regional imagery

Analysis graphics and data


Wind analyses

Sea-surface Temperatures

Model guidance


Storm-specific guidance

Regional single-model guidance

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS

  • Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

  • Tropical Tidbits: CMC

  • Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

1 Comment
2023/09/16
07:23 UTC

13

Hurricane Lee video update from the National Hurricane Center — Friday, 15 September 2023

1 Comment
2023/09/15
15:29 UTC

48

Tropical Tidbits for Thursday, 14 September 2023 — Hurricane Lee Passing West of Bermuda on its Way Toward New England and Nova Scotia

2 Comments
2023/09/14
16:14 UTC

17

Hurricane Lee video update from the National Hurricane Center — Thursday, 14 September 2023

0 Comments
2023/09/14
15:28 UTC

60

Hurricane Lee video update from the National Hurricane Center — Wednesday, 13 September 2023

0 Comments
2023/09/13
15:47 UTC

25

Are storms more likely to curve out to sea in an active season than an inactive one?

For some of the past few named storms this season, it seems to be a recurring theme that storms are getting pulled up north, rather than making US landfall, due to a break in high pressure caused by a previous storm. If the Atlantic keeps spitting out tropical systems, it seems plausible that this could happen over and over again. Whereas, if the tropics were to get a lot more quiet, I feel like any new storm that forms would have a lower probability of getting pulled north since there wouldn't be the opportunity for a previous storm to create that break in the high pressure. Is this line of thinking right in any way?

16 Comments
2023/09/13
02:25 UTC

31

Tropical Tidbits for Tuesday, 12 September 2023 — Hurricane Lee to Bring Impacts to Bermuda, New England, and Southeastern Canada

0 Comments
2023/09/12
16:52 UTC

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