/r/TropicalWeather

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This is a subreddit designed for all sorts of tropical cyclone weather discussion. Though the focus will be on tropical meteorology, it will also be a place for people to stay in touch before, during, and after tropical weather events. People can share their observations, start their own threads that may be location specific, or post in the official threads for each storm. Users will get flair that indicates if they are an approved meteorologist as well as flare for their state.

Current discussions Freddy

Current discussions

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11S — Freddy

 

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Posts must be related to tropical cyclones.

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35

What are your thoughts on Hurricane Florance in September of 2018?

Also, was it actually even worse then Hurricane Micheal, because of it's shear size and slow movement, even though the Catagory was weaker. Am watching You Tube coverage of Florance, and forgot just how bad that storm was, probally since it occured just before Micheal, and is kind of in it's shadow.

23 Comments
2023/03/25
23:46 UTC

55

Cyclone Freddy

NASA Tracks Freddy, Longest-lived Tropical Cyclon…: https://youtu.be/jKcz5tb_-DU

3 Comments
2023/03/18
12:49 UTC

91

What would happen if a Greek named hurricane did significant damage that is retireable?

For example, hurricane Delta did about $3 billion in damages in 2020. But what if a Greek named hurricane like Alpha reached category 5 status and did a significant amount of damage that it is retireable, what would happen to the name?

30 Comments
2023/03/15
09:06 UTC

33

Do you think Hurricane Julia from last year has a chance of being retired?

For a bit of context, I was having a discussion with some buddies yesterday about what names we thought from last year are going to get retired at the future WMO hurricane meeting. We unanimously agreed that Fiona (due to the damages in Puerto Rico, DR, and Canada) and Ian (due to the damages in Cuba and Florida) are going to get scrapped. But we were divided over Julia. The storm killed 89 people and left more than 406 dollars in damage after badly affecting Central America and Venezuela. But unlike Fiona and Ian, Julia was only a Cat 1 and, as a whole, not as memorable as the other 2 storms. On the flip side, it seems as if Central America has a history of retiring non-major hurricane names that affect them (such as Nate in 2017 and Caesar in 1996).

What do ya'll think? Do you personally think Julia has enough backing for it to be retired, or do you think it was simply not significant and memorable enough for the wx community to get retired?

6 Comments
2023/03/14
15:16 UTC

44

If Hurricane Matthew had made landfall on the Flordia East Coast, like many people thought it might in October of 2016, what sort of effect would it have had on Florida?

I know in our timeline, the Hurricane hugged the East Coast, but never actually made landfall on it, but it still did alot of damage, and even knocked out power to over a million people, and even damaged Cape Canaveral. But what if the storm had actually made landfall? What path could it have taken, and what sort of damage could it have done to the state in the process? What cities would have been effect the most?

19 Comments
2023/03/14
01:46 UTC

36

Typhoon names requested to be retired: Conson, Kompasu, Rai, Malakas, Megi, Ma-on, Hinnamnor, Noru, and Nalgae

Sources:

Requests for retirement:

  • The Philippines requested to retire Conson(2113), Kompasu(2118), Rai(2122), Megi(2202), Ma-on(2209), Noru(2216), and Nalgae(2222).
  • Republic of Korea requested to retire Hinnamnor(2211).
  • United Kingdom has been requesting to retire Malakas(1616, 2201), due to its derogatory meaning in Greek.

Notes:

  • Hinnamnor was used for the first time in 2022, and it might be the last time as well.
  • Replacement names would be announced in 2024.
10 Comments
2023/03/13
13:45 UTC

103

In roughly 2 weeks, the WMO will be holding their annual hurricane committee meeting. There they will talk about lessons learned from the previous hurricane season and future safety measures, as well as vote on retiring the names of destructive 2022 hurricanes.

4 Comments
2023/03/12
13:18 UTC

300

The La Nina of 2020-2023 has come to an end.

33 Comments
2023/03/10
02:16 UTC

70

Kevin (16P — Southern Pacific)

Latest observation


Monday, 6 March — 10:56 AM Cook Island Time (CKT; 20:56 UTC)

ATCF8:00 AM CKT (18:00 UTC)
Current location:32.9°S 163.2°W
Relative location:1,323 km (822 mi) SSW of Mangaia (Cook Islands)
Forward motion:ESE (130°) at 43 km/h (23 knots)
Maximum winds:75 km/h (40 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS):Post-tropical Cyclone
Intensity (FMS):Post-tropical Cyclone
Minimum pressure:982 millibars (29 inches)

Official forecasts


Neither the Fiji Meteorological Service (RSMC Nadi) nor the Joint Typhoon Warning Center are issuing advisories for this system.

Official advisories


Fiji Meteorological Service

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery


Fiji Meteorological Service

There is currently no radar imagery available for Cyclone Kevin.

Satellite imagery


Floater imagery

Conventional Imagery

UW-Madison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)

CSU Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch (RAAMB)

Naval Research Laboratory

Regional imagery

UW-Madison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)

Analysis graphics and data


Wind analyses

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Services (NESDIS)

UW-Madison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)

EUMETSAT Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Applications Facility (OSI SAF)

Sea-surface Temperatures

NOAA Office of Satellite and Product Operations (OSPO)

Tropical Tidbits

Model guidance


Storm-Specific Guidance

Southwestern Pacific Guidance

6 Comments
2023/03/02
02:28 UTC

38

Judy (15P — Southern Pacific)

Latest observation


Saturday, 4 March — 4:46 AM Fiji Standard Time (FJT; 16:46 UTC)

ATCF12:00 AM FJT (12:00 UTC)
Current location:26.5°S 177.0°W
Relative location:621 km (386 mi) SSW of Nukualofa, Tongatapu (Tonga)
Forward motion:E (100°) at 54 km/h (29 knots)
Maximum winds:100 km/h (55 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS):Tropical Storm
Intensity (BOM):Cyclone (Category 2)
Minimum pressure:981 millibars (28.97 inches)

Official forecasts


Fiji Meteorological Service

The Fiji Meteorological Service discontinued issuing advisories for Cyclone Judy at 11:00 PM (12:00 UTC) on Thursday, 2 March.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Friday, 3 March — 9:00 PM FJT (09:00 UTC) | JTWC Warning #18 (Final Warning)

HourDateTimeIntensityWindsLatLong
 UTCFJTSaffir-Simpsonknotskm/h°N°E
0003 Mar06:006PM FriTropical Storm6011026.1179.8
1203 Mar18:006AM SatExtratropical Cyclone5510027.6174.4

Official advisories


Fiji Meteorological Service

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery


Fiji Meteorological Service

There is currently no radar imagery available for Cyclone Judy.

Satellite imagery


Floater imagery

Conventional Imagery

UW-Madison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)

CSU Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch (RAAMB)

Naval Research Laboratory

Regional imagery

UW-Madison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)

Analysis graphics and data


Wind analyses

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Services (NESDIS)

UW-Madison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)

EUMETSAT Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Applications Facility (OSI SAF)

Sea-surface Temperatures

NOAA Office of Satellite and Product Operations (OSPO)

Tropical Tidbits

Model guidance


Storm-Specific Guidance

Southwestern Pacific Guidance

0 Comments
2023/02/27
18:49 UTC

70

Upcoming changes and additions to NHC and CPHC products and services

Overview

Over the past week, the National Weather Service (NWS) issued several Service Change Notices (SCNs) which affect products and services provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC). These changes include transitioning certain experimental products to operational products and incorporating changes of existing operational products. These changes are scheduled to go into effect in time for the beginning of the 2023 Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons.

New products

The Peak Storm Surge Forecast Graphic goes operational

The experimental Peak Storm Surge Forecast Graphic will become a fully operational product. (SCN 23-16)

Forecast graphics will now be available for South Pacific and Western Pacific cyclones

The CPHC will begin issuing graphical forecast and advisory products for tropical cyclones within the southern Pacific and northwestern Pacific Ocean basins. The appearance of these graphics will be consistent with existing NHC forecast graphics for the northern Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins and will be derived from forecast information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). (SCN 23-26) (SCN 23-29) (SCN 23-30)

Changes to existing products

Removal of watches and warnings from the Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory (TCM)

The NHC will no longer include land-based watches or warnings in the Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory (TCM). This change is intended to reduce redundancy and confusion, as land-based watches and warnings are already listed in the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory (TCP). (SCN 23-23)

Addition of invest numbers to the Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO)

The NHC will begin referring to disturbances using their respective invest identification number (e.g., AL98, CP90, EP94, etc.). (SCM 23-24)

Changes to Weather Prediction Center products for post-tropical cyclones

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) will begin issuing the Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory (TCM) and Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) products for post-tropical cyclones which are likely to pose a threat of heavy rainfall and flooding to inland areas across the conterminous United States. Presently, the WPC assumes responsibility for issuing forecast products for inland depressions and post-tropical cyclones once advisories are discontinued by the NHC, but only a single Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory (TCP) is issued. This change expands the number of products produced by the WPC in these situations. (SCN 23-18)

The 5-day Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) will be replaced with a 7-day outlook

The NHC and CPHC will expand the 5-day Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) and its graphical counterpart (GTWO) to 7 days. While the 2-day formation probabilities will remain unchanged, the 5-day formation probabilities will be extended to cover 7 days. This change will also affect the URLs for these products on the NHC website. (SCN 23-28)

Extreme Wind Warnings will be added to products issued by WFO Guam

The Weather Forecast Office (WFO) in Tiyan, Guam will now be able to issue Extreme Wind Warnings (EWW) for land areas in Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan. EWWs will be issued when the JTWC designates the current intensity of a tropical cyclone to be the equivalent of a Category 3 major hurricane or greater and when sustained tropical cyclone winds of 100 knots or greater are occurring or expected to occur within WFO Guam's area of responsibility within an hour. (SCN 23-21)

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands will be added to the Potential Storm Surge Map

The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map which is currently produced by the NHC for the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coasts will be expanded to include Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. (SCM 23-25)

5 Comments
2023/02/24
17:44 UTC

24

Enala (14S — Southwestern Indian)

Latest observation


Monday, 27 February — 10:29 PM Mauritius Time (MUT; 18:29 UTC)

ATCF4:00 PM MUT (12:00 UTC)
Current location:29.1°S 67.3°E
Relative location:1,115 km (693 mi) SSE of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues (Mauritius)
Forward motion:ENE (70°) at 5 km/h (3 knots)
Maximum winds:85 km/h (45 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS):Tropical Storm
Intensity (MFR):Moderate Tropical Storm
Minimum pressure:999 millibars (29.5 inches)

Official forecasts


Meteo France

Monday, 27 February — 4:00 PM MUT (12:00 UTC)

(Note: Wind speeds have been converted from ten-minute values to one-minute values.)

HourDateTimeIntensityWindsLatLong
 UTCMUTMFRknotskm/h°S°E
0027 Feb12:004PM MonN/A0029.067.5
1228 Feb00:004AM TueModerate Tropical Storm458528.167.9
2428 Feb12:004PM TueModerate Tropical Storm407527.367.7
3601 Mar00:004AM WedPost-tropical Depression407527.067.2
4801 Mar12:004PM WedPost-tropical Depression356527.566.8
6002 Mar00:004AM ThuFilling up305528.166.8
7202 Mar12:004PM ThuExtratropical Depression305529.166.8

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Monday, 27 February — 1:00 PM MUT (09:00 UTC) | JTWC Warning #11

HourDateTimeIntensityWindsLatLong
 UTCEATSaffir-Simpsonknotskm/h°N°E
0027 Feb06:0010AM MonTropical Storm407529.267.0
1227 Feb18:0010PM MonTropical Storm356528.867.5
2428 Feb06:0010AM TueTropical Storm356528.067.7
3628 Feb18:0010PM TueTropical Storm356527.567.5
4801 Mar06:0010AM WedTropical Storm356527.167.0
7202 Mar06:0010AM ThuRemnant Low305528.265.9

Official advisories


Meteo France (RSMC Reunion)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Other official information


Meteo Madagascar

Radar imagery


Not available

Cyclone Freddy is too far away from any publicly available radar sources.

Satellite imagery


Floater imagery

Conventional Imagery

UW-Madison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)

CSU Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch (RAAMB)

Naval Research Laboratory

Regional imagery

Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

UW-Madison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)

Analysis graphics and data


Wind analyses

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Services (NESDIS)

UW-Madison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)

EUMETSAT Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Applications Facility (OSI SAF)

Sea-surface Temperatures

NOAA Office of Satellite and Product Operations (OSPO)

Tropical Tidbits

Model guidance


Storm-Specific Guidance

Southwestern Pacific Guidance

0 Comments
2023/02/22
15:24 UTC

59

For my fellow nerds here, what’s the fascinating tropical cyclone you’ve ever read about or studied so far?

For me, it’s been Hurricane Joaquin (2015), just because of how unusual it was.

The incipient low had unusual origins (North Africa, far above the equator), unusual cyclogenesis and it just kept defying all of the projected forecasts at the time.

Are there any that still stand out to anyone else?

43 Comments
2023/02/20
21:15 UTC

89

OSPO bulletins indicated this system west of Hawaii as having transitioned to tropical, before transitioning back to subtropical 12 hours later. Thoughts?

14 Comments
2023/02/19
22:53 UTC

89

The eye of Cyclone Freddy as seen from the International Space Station – Friday, 17 February 2023

3 Comments
2023/02/19
03:53 UTC

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