/r/TropicalWeather

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Current discussions: Global Outlook Fengal Robyn

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5

Fengal (04B — Bay of Bengal)

Latest observation


Last updated: Friday, 29 November — 11:30 PM India Standard Time (IST; 18:00 UTC)

JTWC Warning #111:30 PM IST (18:00 UTC)
Current location:12.4°N 81.8°E
Relative location:183 km (114 mi) ESE of Chennai, Tamil Nadu (India)
Forward motion:NW (330°) at 11 km/h (6 knots)
Maximum winds:75 km/h (40 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS):Tropical Storm
Intensity (IMD):Cyclonic Storm [see note]
Minimum pressure:990 millibars (29.23 inches)

^NOTE ^- ^Based ^on ^the ^India ^Meteorological ^Department's ^ten-minute ^maximum ^sustained ^wind ^estimate ^of ^70 ^kilometers ^per ^hour ^(40 ^knots).

Official forecasts


India Meteorological Department

Last updated: Friday, 29 November — 11:30 PM IST (15:00 UTC)

(Note: Wind speeds have been converted from ten-minute values to one-minute values.)

HourDateTimeIntensityWindsLatLong
 UTCISTIMDknotskm/h°N°E
0029 Nov15:008PM FriCyclonic Storm407011.681.7
0329 Nov18:0011PM FriCyclonic Storm407511.781.4
0930 Nov00:005AM SatCyclonic Storm458011.880.9
1530 Nov06:0011AM SatCyclonic Storm458011.980.3
2130 Nov12:005PM SatDeep Depression ^2356512.079.5
4501 Dec12:005PM SunDepression ^2305512.178.0

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Friday, 29 November — 11:30 PM India Standard Time (18:00 UTC)

HourDateTimeIntensityWindsLatLong
 UTCISTSaffir-Simpsonknotskm/h°N°E
0029 Nov18:0011PM FriTropical Storm407512.481.8
1229 Nov06:0011AM SatTropical Storm407512.881.2
2430 Nov18:0011PM SatTropical Storm356513.080.8
3630 Nov06:0011AM SunTropical Storm ^1356513.180.3
4801 Dec18:0011PM SunRemnant Low ^2305513.079.6

NOTES:

1 - Along the coast
2 - Inland

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1 Comment
2024/11/29
20:21 UTC

21

Robyn (03S/01U — Southeastern Indian)

Latest observation


Last updated: Friday, 29 November — 6:30 AM Cocos Islands Time (CCT; 00:00 UTC)

JTWC Warning #46:30 AM CCT (00:00 UTC)
Current location:17.4°S 92.5°E
Relative location:743 km (452 mi) SW of West Island, Cocos Islands (Australia)
Forward motion:SE (135°) at 15 km/h (8 knots)
Maximum winds:95 km/h (50 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS):Tropical Storm
Intensity (BOM):Cyclone (Category 2)
Minimum pressure:993 millibars (29.32 inches)

Official forecasts


Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

Last updated: Friday, 29 November — 6:30 AM CCT (0:00 UTC)

HourDateTimeIntensityWindsLatLong
 UTCCCTBOMknotskm/h°S°E
0029 Nov00:006AM FriCyclone (Category 1)458517.492.3
1229 Nov12:006PM FriCyclone (Category 1)407518.292.5
2430 Nov00:006AM SatTropical Low305518.291.6
3630 Nov12:006PM SatTropical Low305517.790.3
4801 Dec00:006AM SunTropical Low305517.488.7
6001 Dec12:006PM SunTropical Low254517.486.8
7202 Dec12:006AM MonTropical Low254517.685.0

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Last updated: Friday, 29 November — 6:30 AM CCT (00:00 UTC)

HourDateTimeIntensityWindsLatLong
 UTCCCTSaffir-Simpsonknotskm/h°N°E
0029 Nov00:006AM FriTropical Storm509517.492.5
1229 Nov12:006PM FriTropical Storm407518.193.1
2430 Nov00:006AM SatTropical Storm356518.692.6
3630 Nov12:006PM SatRemnant Low305518.691.7

Official information


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Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

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1 Comment
2024/11/28
12:23 UTC

19

Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 25 November - 1 December 2024

Current discussions


Last updated: Saturday, 23 November — 21:00 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC)

North Indian

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Climate Prediction Center

4 Comments
2024/11/25
17:24 UTC

0

What storms do you think were SEVERELY underestimated?

I'm talking about these types of storms: Nisha-Orama (Officially a Category 3), Hina (Officially a Category 4), Dianmu (Officially 915 hPA - how????) Olaf (2005), and more. I put satellite images of the storms which literally just shows the underestimation, you can tell they're stronger.

https://preview.redd.it/23oho57f2d2e1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=ce26c07de637996433d8800c7906b12addb55163

https://preview.redd.it/0she6uej2d2e1.png?width=484&format=png&auto=webp&s=a796888771291670ca68611656dc99f177ad573f

https://preview.redd.it/lr02flkl2d2e1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=cfe7fe4337d172ea46bbaca7346177d5ba025bb3

14 Comments
2024/11/22
02:07 UTC

3

storms in november

Why do the strongest typhoons often hit the Philippines in November? Super Typhoon Haiyan struck on November 8, Super Typhoon Goni on November 1, and this month alone, the Philippines has already been hit by four typhoons, and two of them are super typhoons. (im a newbie when it comes to tropical cyclones, i was just curious)

6 Comments
2024/11/20
20:08 UTC

127

What little remains of Sara colliding with a cold front

12 Comments
2024/11/20
01:09 UTC

10

Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 18-25 November 2024

Current discussions


Last updated: Saturday, 23 November — 21:00 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC)

North Indian

South Indian

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2 Comments
2024/11/19
12:14 UTC

16

Man-yi (25W — South China Sea)

Latest observation


Last updated: Tuesday, 19 November — 1:00 PM Indochina Time (ICT; 06:00 UTC)

JTWC Warning #421:00 PM ICT (06:00 UTC)
Current location:18.8°N 113.0°E
Relative location:275 km (171 mi) E of Wanning, Hainan (China)
Forward motion:WSW (265°) at 19 km/h (10 knots)
Maximum winds:55 km/h (30 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS):Tropical Depression
Intensity (JMA):Tropical Storm [see note]
Minimum pressure:1002 millibars (29.59 inches)

^NOTE ^- ^Based ^on ^the ^Japan ^Meteorological ^Agency's ^ten-minute ^maximum ^sustained ^wind ^estimate ^of ^75 ^kilometers ^per ^hour ^(40 ^knots).

Official forecasts


Japan Meteorological Agency

Last updated: Tuesday, 19 November — 4:00 PM ICT (09:00 UTC)

HourDateTimeIntensityWindsLatLong
 UTCICTJMAknotskm/h°N°E
0019 Nov09:004PM TueTropical Storm407518.5112.5
1219 Nov21:004AM WedTropical Storm356517.5110.8
2420 Nov09:004PM WedTropical Depression305516.3109.9

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Last updated: Tuesday, 19 November — 4:00 PM ICT (09:00 UTC)

HourDateTimeIntensityWindsLatLong
 UTCICTSaffir-Simpsonknotskm/h°N°E
0019 Nov06:001PM TueTropical Depression305518.8113.0
1219 Nov18:001AM WedTropical Depression254517.9111.2
2420 Nov06:001PM WedRemnant Low203516.7109.3
3620 Nov18:001AM ThuDissipated

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1 Comment
2024/11/18
06:17 UTC

12

NHC final update on Tropical Storm Sara — Saturday, 16 November

1 Comment
2024/11/16
15:23 UTC

131

Supertyphoon Man-yi attaining Category 5 strength right before the sun sets

14 Comments
2024/11/16
10:30 UTC

0

timing of wind impacts from hurricanes/TStorms? Exit?

I understand airports can close due to wind, flooding, power outages, etc, but i'm mostly curious about winds. What are the time-windows which typically cause delays and cancellations at airports due to winds? Hrs or days?

Example, TropStorm 19 might be a hurricane, likely passing NE just south of Cancun Monday AM, I'm curious when the these winds might begin and when they might be gone. I see Arrival Time of TS Winds charts, but how long do those periods last? Would winds be gone by Tue in the example above?

3 Comments
2024/11/14
18:00 UTC

67

Sara (19L — Western Caribbean Sea)

Latest observation


Last updated: Sunday, 17 November — 9:00 PM Central Standard Time (CST; 03:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #189:00 PM CST (03:00 UTC)
Current location:18.1°N 90.7°W
Relative location:490 km (304 mi) WNW of La Ceiba, Honduras
Forward motion:WNW (300°) at 20 km/h (11 knots)
Maximum winds:45 km/h (25 knots)
Intensity:Tropical Depression
Minimum pressure:1004 millibars (29.65 inches)

Official forecast


Last updated: Sunday, 17 November — 6:00 PM CST (00:00 UTC)

HourDateTimeIntensityWindsLatLong
 -UTCCSTSaffir-Simpsonknotskm/h°N°W
0018 Nov00:006PM SunTropical Depression254518.190.7
1218 Nov12:006AM MonRemnant Low203519.392.0
2419 Nov00:006PM MonDissipated

Official information


National Hurricane Center

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48 Comments
2024/11/14
17:55 UTC

8

Bheki (02S — Southwestern Indian)

Latest Observation


Last updated: Saturday, 23 November — 4:00 PM Reunion Time (RET; 12:00 UTC)

ATCF4:00 PM RET (12:00 UTC)
Current location:23.3°S 52.1°E
Relative location:439 km (273 mi) SW of Saint-Denis, Réunion (France)
Forward motion:SE (150°) at 7 km/h (4 knots)
Maximum winds:35 km/h (20 knots)
Minimum pressure:1007 millibars (29.74 inches)

Official forecast


Both Météo-France and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center have assessed this system to have degenerated into a remnant low and have thus discontinued issuing forecast advisory products for it. This post will only update until this system's position and intensity are no longer being updated in the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.

Official information


Meteo France (RSMC Reunion)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery


Not available

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

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2 Comments
2024/11/14
15:55 UTC

6

Toraji (26W — South China Sea)

Latest observation


Last updated: Thursday, 14 November — 8:00 AM Philippine Standard Time (PhST; 00:00 UTC)

JTWC Warning #208:00 AM PhST (00:00 UTC)
Current location:21.0°N 114.0°E
Relative location:148 km (92 mi) S of Hong Kong
Forward motion:WSW (255°) at 7 km/h (4 knots)
Maximum winds:45 km/h (25 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS):Tropical Depression
Intensity (JMA):Tropical Storm [see note]
Minimum pressure:1005 millibars (29.68 inches)

^NOTE ^- ^Based ^on ^the ^Japan ^Meteorological ^Agency's ^ten-minute ^maximum ^sustained ^wind ^estimate ^of ^65 ^kilometers ^per ^hour ^(35 ^knots).

Official forecasts


Japan Meteorological Agency

Last updated: Thursday, 14 November — 2:00 PM PhST (06:00 UTC)

HourDateTimeIntensityWindsLatLong
 UTCPhSTJMAknotskm/h°N°E
0014 Nov06:002PM ThuTropical Storm356521.2113.9
1214 Nov18:002AM FriTropical Depression305521.2113.2
2415 Nov06:002PM FriTropical Depression305521.0112.6

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Last updated: Thursday, 14 November — 11:00 AM PhST (03:00 UTC)

NOTE: The JTWC has issued its final advisory for this system.

HourDateTimeIntensityWindsLatLong
 UTCPhSTSaffir-Simpsonknotskm/h°N°E
0014 Nov00:008AM ThuTropical Depression254521.0114.0
1214 Nov12:008PM ThuRemnant Low203520.9113.4
2415 Nov00:008AM FriRemnant Low153020.7113.2

Official information


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1 Comment
2024/11/14
10:16 UTC

36

19L (Western Caribbean Sea)

Latest observation


Last updated: Thursday, 14 November — 10:00 AM Eastern Standard Time (EST; 15:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #410:00 AM EST (15:00 UTC)
Current location:15.7°N 82.6°W
Relative location:449 km (279 mi) E of La Ceiba, Honduras
Forward motion:W (265°) at 22 km/h (12 knots)
Maximum winds:55 km/h (30 knots)
Intensity:Tropical Depression
Minimum pressure:1004 millibars (29.65 inches)

Official forecast


Last updated: Thursday, 14 November — 7:00 AM EST (12:00 UTC)

HourDateTimeIntensityWindsLatLong
 -UTCESTSaffir-Simpsonknotskm/h°N°W
0014 Nov12:007AM ThuTropical Depression305515.782.6
1215 Nov00:007PM ThuTropical Storm356515.783.7
2415 Nov12:007AM FriTropical Storm ^1407515.984.9
3616 Nov00:007PM FriTropical Storm ^1407515.985.4
4816 Nov12:007AM SatTropical Storm ^1407515.985.8
6017 Nov00:007PM SatTropical Storm ^1458516.086.2
7217 Nov12:007AM SunTropical Storm ^2458516.287.0
9618 Nov12:007AM MonTropical Depression ^3305518.089.6
12019 Nov12:007AM TueTropical Depression ^4305521.791.6

^NOTES:

^1 ^- ^Near ^the ^coast ^of ^Honduras
^2 ^- ^Over ^the ^Gulf ^of ^Honduras
^3 ^- ^Inland ^over ^Mexico
^4 ^- ^Over ^the ^Gulf ^of Mexico

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46 Comments
2024/11/13
20:56 UTC

104

Typhoon Usagi and its pinhole eye

14 Comments
2024/11/13
12:47 UTC

49

Four simultaneous November tropical systems in the west Pacific

5 Comments
2024/11/12
21:24 UTC

72

99L (Invest — Western Caribbean Sea)

Latest Observation


Last updated: Wednesday, 13 November — 6:00 AM Central Standard Time (CST; 12:00 UTC)

ATCF6:00 AM CST (12:00 UTC)
Current location:16.1°N 77.6°W
Relative location:226 km (140 mi) SSW of Kingston, Jamaica
Forward motion:SW (225°) at 5 km/h (3 knots)
Maximum winds:35 km/h (20 knots)
Minimum pressure:1007 millibars (29.74 inches)
2-day potential: (through 6AM Fri)high (90 percent)
7-day potential: (through 6AM Tue)high (90 percent)

Outlook discussion


Last updated: Wednesday, 13 November — 6:00 AM CST (12:00 UTC)

Discussion by Daniel Brown — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea.

Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend. The system is expected to turn slowly northwestward by early next week. Interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.

Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected over Jamaica during the next day or so. For more information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today.

Official information


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Last updated: Wednesday, 13 November — 7:19 AM EST (12:19 UTC)

Meteorological Service of Jamaica

Instituto de Meteorología (Cuba)

Radar imagery


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Radar imagery from the Meteorological Service of Jamaica is not currently available.

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147 Comments
2024/11/12
20:09 UTC

11

Yinxing (24W — South China Sea)

Latest observation


Last updated: Tuesday, 12 November — 7:00 PM Indochina Time (ICT; 12:00 UTC)

JTWC Warning #387:00 PM ICT (12:00 UTC)
Current location:14.0°N 108.6°E
Relative location:74 km (46 mi) WNW of Qui Nhon, Binh Dinh (Vietnam)
Forward motion:WSW (265°) at 15 km/h (8 knots)
Maximum winds:45 km/h (25 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS):Remnant Low
Minimum pressure:1004 millibars (29.65 inches)

^NOTE ^- ^Based ^on ^the ^Japan ^Meteorological ^Agency's ^ten-minute ^maximum ^sustained ^wind ^estimate ^of ^120 ^kilometers ^per ^hour ^(65 ^knots).

Official forecasts


Japan Meteorological Agency

The JMA is no longer issuing advisories for this system.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Last updated: Tuesday, 12 November — 10:00 PM ICT (15:00 UTC)

The JTWC is no longer issuing advisories for this system.

HourDateTimeIntensityWindsLatLong
 UTCICTSaffir-Simpsonknotskm/h°N°E
0012 Nov12:007PM TueRemnant Low254514.0108.6
1212 Nov00:007AM WedRemnant Low203513.9107.0
2413 Nov12:007PM WedRemnant Low153013.9105.2
3613 Nov00:007AM ThuDissipated

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2 Comments
2024/11/11
20:05 UTC

24

Usagi (27W — Philippine Sea)

Latest observation


Last updated: Saturday, 16 November — 8:00 AM Philippine Standard Time (PhST; 00:00 UTC)

JTWC Warning #218:00 AM PhST (00:00 UTC)
Current location:22.5°N 120.3°E
Relative location:15 km (9 mi) SSW of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan
Forward motion:NE (50°) at 9 km/h (5 knots)
Maximum winds:55 km/h (30 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS):Tropical Depression
Intensity (JMA):Tropical Storm [see note]
Minimum pressure:1002 millibars (29.59 inches)

^NOTE ^- ^Based ^on ^the ^Japan ^Meteorological ^Agency's ^ten-minute ^maximum ^sustained ^wind ^estimate ^of ^65 ^kilometers ^per ^hour ^(35 ^knots).

Official forecasts


Japan Meteorological Agency

Last updated: Saturday, 16 November — 8:00 AM PhST (00:00 UTC)

HourDateTimeIntensityWindsLatLong
 UTCPhSTJMAknotskm/h°N°E
0016 Nov00:008AM SatTropical Storm356522.2120.2
1216 Nov12:008PM SatTropical Depression ^1305522.8121.3
2417 Nov00:008AM SunTropical Depression305523.4121.7

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Last updated: Saturday, 16 November — 11:00 AM PhST (03:00 UTC)

HourDateTimeIntensityWindsLatLong
 UTCPhSTSaffir-Simpsonknotskm/h°N°E
0016 Nov00:008AM SatTropical Depression ^1305522.5120.3
1216 Nov12:008PM SatTropical Depression ^1254523.4121.2
2417 Nov00:008AM SunRemnant Low ^1203524.3121.3

^NOTES:

^1 ^— Inland ^over ^Taiwan
^2 ^— Offshore ^to ^the ^east ^of ^Taiwan

Official information


Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration

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Central Weather Administration (Taiwan)

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Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)

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Japan Meteorological Agency

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Regional ensemble model guidance

13 Comments
2024/11/11
20:04 UTC

21

Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 11-17 November 2024

Current discussions


Last updated: Thursday, 14 November — 15:30 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC)

Northern Atlantic

Western Pacific

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Areas of interest without current discussions


There are currently no other active cyclones or disturbances.

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Global outlooks


Climate Prediction Center

10 Comments
2024/11/11
19:09 UTC

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