This is a subreddit designed for all sorts of tropical cyclone weather discussion. Though the focus will be on tropical meteorology, it will also be a place for people to stay in touch before, during, and after tropical weather events. People can share their observations, start their own threads that may be location specific, or post in the official threads for each storm. Users will get flair that indicates if they are an approved meteorologist as well as flare for their state.
Also, was it actually even worse then Hurricane Micheal, because of it's shear size and slow movement, even though the Catagory was weaker. Am watching You Tube coverage of Florance, and forgot just how bad that storm was, probally since it occured just before Micheal, and is kind of in it's shadow.
NASA Tracks Freddy, Longest-lived Tropical Cyclon…: https://youtu.be/jKcz5tb_-DU
For example, hurricane Delta did about $3 billion in damages in 2020. But what if a Greek named hurricane like Alpha reached category 5 status and did a significant amount of damage that it is retireable, what would happen to the name?
For a bit of context, I was having a discussion with some buddies yesterday about what names we thought from last year are going to get retired at the future WMO hurricane meeting. We unanimously agreed that Fiona (due to the damages in Puerto Rico, DR, and Canada) and Ian (due to the damages in Cuba and Florida) are going to get scrapped. But we were divided over Julia. The storm killed 89 people and left more than 406 dollars in damage after badly affecting Central America and Venezuela. But unlike Fiona and Ian, Julia was only a Cat 1 and, as a whole, not as memorable as the other 2 storms. On the flip side, it seems as if Central America has a history of retiring non-major hurricane names that affect them (such as Nate in 2017 and Caesar in 1996).
What do ya'll think? Do you personally think Julia has enough backing for it to be retired, or do you think it was simply not significant and memorable enough for the wx community to get retired?
I know in our timeline, the Hurricane hugged the East Coast, but never actually made landfall on it, but it still did alot of damage, and even knocked out power to over a million people, and even damaged Cape Canaveral. But what if the storm had actually made landfall? What path could it have taken, and what sort of damage could it have done to the state in the process? What cities would have been effect the most?
Requests for retirement:
Monday, 6 March — 10:56 AM Cook Island Time (CKT; 20:56 UTC)
|ATCF||8:00 AM CKT (18:00 UTC)|
|Current location:||32.9°S 163.2°W|
|Relative location:||1,323 km (822 mi) SSW of Mangaia (Cook Islands)|
|Forward motion:||▲||ESE (130°) at 43 km/h (23 knots)|
|Maximum winds:||▼||75 km/h (40 knots)|
|Intensity (SSHWS):||Post-tropical Cyclone|
|Intensity (FMS):||Post-tropical Cyclone|
|Minimum pressure:||▼||982 millibars (29 inches)|
Neither the Fiji Meteorological Service (RSMC Nadi) nor the Joint Typhoon Warning Center are issuing advisories for this system.
There is currently no radar imagery available for Cyclone Kevin.
Saturday, 4 March — 4:46 AM Fiji Standard Time (FJT; 16:46 UTC)
|ATCF||12:00 AM FJT (12:00 UTC)|
|Current location:||26.5°S 177.0°W|
|Relative location:||621 km (386 mi) SSW of Nukualofa, Tongatapu (Tonga)|
|Forward motion:||▲||E (100°) at 54 km/h (29 knots)|
|Maximum winds:||▼||100 km/h (55 knots)|
|Intensity (SSHWS):||▼||Tropical Storm|
|Intensity (BOM):||Cyclone (Category 2)|
|Minimum pressure:||▲||981 millibars (28.97 inches)|
The Fiji Meteorological Service discontinued issuing advisories for Cyclone Judy at 11:00 PM (12:00 UTC) on Thursday, 2 March.
Friday, 3 March — 9:00 PM FJT (09:00 UTC) | JTWC Warning #18 (Final Warning)
|00||03 Mar||06:00||6PM Fri||Tropical Storm||60||110||26.1||179.8|
|12||03 Mar||18:00||6AM Sat||Extratropical Cyclone||▼||55||100||27.6||174.4|
There is currently no radar imagery available for Cyclone Judy.
Over the past week, the National Weather Service (NWS) issued several Service Change Notices (SCNs) which affect products and services provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC). These changes include transitioning certain experimental products to operational products and incorporating changes of existing operational products. These changes are scheduled to go into effect in time for the beginning of the 2023 Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons.
The experimental Peak Storm Surge Forecast Graphic will become a fully operational product. (SCN 23-16)
The CPHC will begin issuing graphical forecast and advisory products for tropical cyclones within the southern Pacific and northwestern Pacific Ocean basins. The appearance of these graphics will be consistent with existing NHC forecast graphics for the northern Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins and will be derived from forecast information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). (SCN 23-26) (SCN 23-29) (SCN 23-30)
The NHC will no longer include land-based watches or warnings in the Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory (TCM). This change is intended to reduce redundancy and confusion, as land-based watches and warnings are already listed in the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory (TCP). (SCN 23-23)
The NHC will begin referring to disturbances using their respective invest identification number (e.g., AL98, CP90, EP94, etc.). (SCM 23-24)
The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) will begin issuing the Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory (TCM) and Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) products for post-tropical cyclones which are likely to pose a threat of heavy rainfall and flooding to inland areas across the conterminous United States. Presently, the WPC assumes responsibility for issuing forecast products for inland depressions and post-tropical cyclones once advisories are discontinued by the NHC, but only a single Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory (TCP) is issued. This change expands the number of products produced by the WPC in these situations. (SCN 23-18)
The NHC and CPHC will expand the 5-day Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) and its graphical counterpart (GTWO) to 7 days. While the 2-day formation probabilities will remain unchanged, the 5-day formation probabilities will be extended to cover 7 days. This change will also affect the URLs for these products on the NHC website. (SCN 23-28)
The Weather Forecast Office (WFO) in Tiyan, Guam will now be able to issue Extreme Wind Warnings (EWW) for land areas in Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan. EWWs will be issued when the JTWC designates the current intensity of a tropical cyclone to be the equivalent of a Category 3 major hurricane or greater and when sustained tropical cyclone winds of 100 knots or greater are occurring or expected to occur within WFO Guam's area of responsibility within an hour. (SCN 23-21)
The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map which is currently produced by the NHC for the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coasts will be expanded to include Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. (SCM 23-25)
Monday, 27 February — 10:29 PM Mauritius Time (MUT; 18:29 UTC)
|ATCF||4:00 PM MUT (12:00 UTC)|
|Current location:||29.1°S 67.3°E|
|Relative location:||1,115 km (693 mi) SSE of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues (Mauritius)|
|Forward motion:||▲||ENE (70°) at 5 km/h (3 knots)|
|Maximum winds:||▲||85 km/h (45 knots)|
|Intensity (SSHWS):||Tropical Storm|
|Intensity (MFR):||Moderate Tropical Storm|
|Minimum pressure:||▼||999 millibars (29.5 inches)|
Monday, 27 February — 4:00 PM MUT (12:00 UTC)
(Note: Wind speeds have been converted from ten-minute values to one-minute values.)
|00||27 Feb||12:00||4PM Mon||N/A||0||0||29.0||67.5|
|12||28 Feb||00:00||4AM Tue||Moderate Tropical Storm||▲||45||85||28.1||67.9|
|24||28 Feb||12:00||4PM Tue||Moderate Tropical Storm||▼||40||75||27.3||67.7|
|36||01 Mar||00:00||4AM Wed||Post-tropical Depression||40||75||27.0||67.2|
|48||01 Mar||12:00||4PM Wed||Post-tropical Depression||▼||35||65||27.5||66.8|
|60||02 Mar||00:00||4AM Thu||Filling up||▼||30||55||28.1||66.8|
|72||02 Mar||12:00||4PM Thu||Extratropical Depression||▼||30||55||29.1||66.8|
Monday, 27 February — 1:00 PM MUT (09:00 UTC) | JTWC Warning #11
|00||27 Feb||06:00||10AM Mon||Tropical Storm||40||75||29.2||67.0|
|12||27 Feb||18:00||10PM Mon||Tropical Storm||▼||35||65||28.8||67.5|
|24||28 Feb||06:00||10AM Tue||Tropical Storm||35||65||28.0||67.7|
|36||28 Feb||18:00||10PM Tue||Tropical Storm||35||65||27.5||67.5|
|48||01 Mar||06:00||10AM Wed||Tropical Storm||35||65||27.1||67.0|
|72||02 Mar||06:00||10AM Thu||Remnant Low||▼||30||55||28.2||65.9|
Cyclone Freddy is too far away from any publicly available radar sources.
For me, it’s been Hurricane Joaquin (2015), just because of how unusual it was.
The incipient low had unusual origins (North Africa, far above the equator), unusual cyclogenesis and it just kept defying all of the projected forecasts at the time.
Are there any that still stand out to anyone else?