/r/TropicalWeather

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The intent of this subreddit is to provide a centralized location to discuss tropical cyclone, including their climatology, their development, their movement, and their impacts to life, property, and the environment. The moderator staff strives to minimize excessive speculation and fearmongering and to distribute and emphasize lifesaving information from official sources.

Current discussions: Global Outlook Alberto Invest 92L

Current discussions

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Northern Atlantic

01L — Alberto

92L — Invest

 

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53

92L (Invest — Northern Atlantic)

Latest Observation


Last updated: Friday, 21 June — 2:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 06:00 UTC)

ATCF2:00 AM EDT (06:00 UTC)
Current location:29.9°N 78.1°W
Relative location:378 km (235 mi) N of Freeport, West Grand Bahama (Bahamas)
 345 km (214 mi) E of Jacksonville, Florida (United States)
Forward motion:WNW (310°) at 27 km/h (15 knots)
Maximum winds:55 km/h (30 knots)
Minimum pressure:1014 millibars (29.94 inches)
Potential (2-day):medium (50 percent)
Potential (5-day):medium (50 percent)

Outlook discussion


Last updated: Friday, 21 June – 2:00 AM EDT (06:00 UTC)

Discussion by: Dr. Philippe Papin — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

A small but concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms persists with an area of low pressure located around 225 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida. However, it is unclear if the system possesses a well-defined surface circulation. Environmental conditions remain marginally conducive for some additional development, and this system could become a short-lived tropical depression as the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast later today, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this morning, if necessary.

Official information


National Hurricane Center

Text products

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National Weather Service

Jacksonville, Florida

Charleston, South Carolina

Bahamas Department of Meteorology

Aircraft reconnaissance


National Hurricane Center

Tropical Tidbits

Radar imagery


Bahamas Department of Meteorology

National Weather Service (United States)

Satellite imagery


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  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS

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Regional ensemble model guidance

12 Comments
2024/06/19
22:12 UTC

6

HurricaneTrack: Tropical Storm Alberto Forms

1 Comment
2024/06/19
18:11 UTC

41

Just started to rain in Monterrey Mexico because of TS Alberto.

I live in Monterrey, México and the first rains of Alberto are just starting.

1 Comment
2024/06/19
19:11 UTC

84

Alberto (01L — Northern Atlantic)

Latest observation


Last updated: Thursday, 20 June — 4:00 PM Central Daylight Time (CDT; 21:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #134:00 PM CDT (21:00 UTC)
Current location:22.3°N 102.0°W (Inland)
Relative location:56 km (35 mi) NNE of Aguascalientes, Mexico
Forward motion:W (270°) at 21 knots (39 km/h)
Maximum winds:50 km/h (25 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS):Remnants
Minimum pressure:1000 millibars (29.53 inches)

Official forecast


Last updated: Thursday, 20 June — 4:00 PM Central Daylight Time (CDT; 21:00 UTC)

HourDateTimeIntensityWindsLatLong
 -UTCCDTSaffir-Simpsonknotskm/h°N°W
0020 Jun18:001PM ThuTropical Depression (Inland)254522.3102.0
1221 Jun06:001AM FriDissipated

Official information


National Hurricane Center

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Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)

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Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)

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  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS

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Regional ensemble model guidance

17 Comments
2024/06/19
14:52 UTC

64

New tracking site with live NHC data - HurricaneMap.org

8 Comments
2024/06/18
18:44 UTC

50

Tropical Tidbits for Tuesday, 18 June: Potential Tropical Cyclone One Bringing Flooding Risks to Texas and Mexico

1 Comment
2024/06/18
18:21 UTC

59

The NHC is monitoring the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for further potential tropical cyclone development (after 01L)

Outlook discussion


Last updated: Friday, 21 June – 2:00 AM EDT (06:00 UTC)

Discussion by: Dr. Philippe Papin — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over southeastern Mexico and northern Central America later today. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development after this system moves over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and a tropical depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.

Development potential2:00 AM EDT (06:00 UTC)
Next two days:medium (40 percent)
Next seven days:medium (60 percent)

Official information


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Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)

Radar imagery


Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)

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  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS

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Tropical Cyclogenesis Products

14 Comments
2024/06/18
00:01 UTC

17

Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 17-23 June 2024

Active cyclones


Last updated: Thursday, 20 June 2024 — 20:00 UTC

Northern Atlantic Ocean

Active disturbances


Last updated: Thursday, 20 June 2024 — 20:00 UTC

Northern Atlantic Ocean

Satellite imagery


Regional imagery

Infrared imagery

Model guidance


Regional guidance (GFS)

Information sources


Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks


Climate Prediction Center

8 Comments
2024/06/17
10:23 UTC

137

Tropical Tidbits for Sunday, 16 June: Two Tropical Systems could Develop and Impact the U.S. and other areas this Week

8 Comments
2024/06/16
22:10 UTC

13

90E (Invest — Eastern Pacific)

Latest Observation


Last updated: Monday, 17 June — 12:00 AM Central Standard Time (CST; 06:00 UTC)

ATCF12:00 AM CST (06:00 UTC)
Current location:14.6°N 92.2°W
Relative location:77 km (48 mi) WSW of Quetzaltenango, Guatemala
Forward motion:NNE (35°) at 7 km/h (4 knots)
Maximum winds:45 km/h (25 knots)
Minimum pressure:1005 millibars (29.68 inches)
Potential (2-day):low (near 0 percent)
Potential (5-day):low (near 0 percent)

Outlook discussion


Last updated: Monday, 15 June – 6:00 AM Central Standard Time (12:00 UTC)

Discussion by: Dr. Lisa Bucci — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

An area of low pressure associated with disorganized showers and thunderstorms has moved inland over Central America and further development is not expected. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is forecast to continue across portions of southern Mexico and Central America during the next several days. These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.

Official information


National Hurricane Center

Text products

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Instituto Nacional de Sismología, Vulcanología, Meteorología, e Hidrología (Guatemala)

Radar imagery is currently not available from INSIVUMEH.

Satellite imagery


Storm-specific imagery

Regional imagery

Enhanced Infrared

Water vapor

Visible

Analysis graphics and data


Wind analyses

Sea-surface Temperatures

Model guidance


Storm-specific guidance

Regional single-model guidance

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS

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Regional ensemble model guidance

2 Comments
2024/06/16
20:17 UTC

357

CPC declares El Nino has ended.

41 Comments
2024/06/13
19:18 UTC

37

The NHC is monitoring an area off the southern coast of Mexico for potential tropical cyclone development

Outlook discussion


Last updated: Friday, 14 June — 11:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (PDT; 18:00 UTC)

Offshore of Southern Mexico

Discussion by: Larry Kelly, NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to remain unfavorable, and development of this system is not expected.

Development potential11:00 AM PDT (18:00 UTC)
Next two days:low (near 0 percent)
Next seven days:low (near 0 percent)

Official information


National Hurricane Center

Image mirrors updated: Friday, 14 June — 11:00 AM PDT (18:00 UTC)

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)

Radar imagery


Unavailable

Radar imagery is currently unavailable for this system.

Satellite imagery


Regional imagery

Eastern Pacific Ocean

Forecast models


Ensembles

Dynamical

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS

  • Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

  • Tropical Tidbits: CMC

  • Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Tropical Cyclogenesis Products

2 Comments
2024/06/11
21:03 UTC

63

90L (Invest — Northern Atlantic)

Latest Observation


Last updated: Friday, 14 June — 8:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 00:00 UTC)

ATCF8:00 PM EDT (00:00 UTC)
Current location:34.6°N 72.9°W
Relative location:286 mi (460 km) ENE of Wilmington, North Carolina
Forward motion:NE (45°) at 12 mph (10 knots)
Maximum winds:30 knots (35 mph)
Minimum pressure:1008 millibars (29.77 inches)
Potential (2-day):low (near 0 percent)
Potential (5-day):low (near 0 percent)

Outlook discussion


Last updated: Saturday, 15 June – 2:00 AM EDT (06:00 UTC)

Discussion by: Brad Reinhart, NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

Satellite data indicate an elongated area of low pressure located well offshore of the southeastern U.S. has merged with a nearby frontal system over the western Atlantic. The system is forecast to move east-northeastward to northeastward through the weekend, and tropical cyclone formation is not expected. For more information on this system, including Gale Warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

Official information


National Hurricane Center

Mirror images updated: Saturday, 15 June — 7:15 AM EDT (11:15 UTC)

Ocean Prediction Center

Radar imagery


National Weather Service

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery


Storm-specific imagery

Regional imagery

Analysis graphics and data


Wind analyses

Sea-surface Temperatures

Model guidance


Storm-specific guidance

Regional single-model guidance

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS

  • Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

  • Tropical Tidbits: CMC

  • Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

28 Comments
2024/06/11
16:48 UTC

9

What causes the weekly fluctuations from heating to cooling, to heating to cooling during the transition from one ENSO phase to another?

5 Comments
2024/06/11
09:04 UTC

34

Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 10-16 June 2024

Active cyclones


There are currently no active cyclones.

Active disturbances


Last updated: Saturday, 15 June 2024 — 23:39 UTC

Northern Atlantic Ocean

Eastern Pacific

Satellite imagery


Regional imagery

Infrared imagery

Model guidance


Regional guidance (GFS)

Information sources


Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks


Climate Prediction Center

14 Comments
2024/06/10
13:22 UTC

53

Conversations Concerning Cyclone Climatology

Hey all,

One of the many questions that comes up each year is regarding hurricane activity in the North Atlantic, particularly during this time of year.

To summarize:

  1. Absence of activity in June/July has little correlation to overall seasonal activity. There are even seasons in the record, such as 2004, where the first named storm didn't form until 31 July, and yet that was a 226 ACE season with six major hurricanes.

  2. Presence of June/July activity, specifically in the form of genesis from non-tropical sources, including from decaying cold fronts, extratropical lows, upper level troughs or lows; occurring in the northern Gulf, over the Gulf Stream, or open subtropical Atlantic, has zero correlation to overall seasonal activity. This mechanism of genesis, while common for the early-season, is still statistically noisy and random. It also has little to do with major hurricanes since ~90% of those develop from tropical waves instead. Tropical vs non-tropical origins matters a lot in this context!

  3. Presence of June/July activity, specifically from tropical sources, particularly tropical waves; occurring in the Main Development Region, is the sole form of early season activity that exhibits a statistically significant correlation to overall seasonal activity. Conditions being favorable enough so early into the season for tropical storms to form east of the Antilles is associated with above-average to hyperactive seasons. Occurred in seasons like 2023, 2017, 2005, etc. It also occurred in 2013, but we don't talk about that year.

https://i.imgur.com/CvjBN7D.jpeg

the most important thing to take away and remember is that climatologically, over 90% of activity occurs AFTER August begins. June + July together are responsible for only about ~6% of seasonal activity. Few or no storms is normal. In general, drawing conclusions about peak season (August to October) activity from June/July activity (or lack thereof) is a fool's errand. Put simply, you would be turning off the game during the first quarter. Don't turn off the game during the first quarter.

On average, the first hurricane forms on 11 August, and the first major hurricane forms on 1 September.

August 20th is commonly considered the beginning of peak season. It extends to mid-October.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/

24 Comments
2024/06/06
20:47 UTC

8

Tropical Cyclone Series - Part 2: Potential Tropical Cyclones

1 Comment
2024/06/06
10:18 UTC

18

Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 3-9 June 2024

Current discussions


Active cyclones


There are currently no active cyclones.

Active disturbances


There are currently no active disturbances.

Long-range potential


Last updated: Tuesday, 4 June 2024 — 09:00 UTC | Discussions by: /u/giantspeck

Eastern Pacific Ocean

Potential Disturbance 1

Long-range model guidance hints at the development of a disturbance off the coast of Guatemala later this week or over the upcoming weekend. Conditions may become more favorable for the development of a Central American gyre, a broad area of low pressure which most commonly develops over the Caribbean Sea and the eastern Pacific Ocean during the late spring months. The disturbance could become embedded within this system, leading to potential tropical development over the eastern Pacific, the southern Gulf of Mexico, or the western Caribbean Sea early next week. It remains highly uncertain whether this will occur and if so, the location and extent to which impacts will be likely to occur.

Satellite imagery


Regional imagery

Infrared imagery

Model guidance


Regional guidance (GFS)

Information sources


Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks


Climate Prediction Center

20 Comments
2024/06/04
10:16 UTC

18

If Hurricane Erin had curved more west, and threatened the U.S. East Coast, in September of 2001, do the 9/11 Twin Tower Attacks still happen?

From what I know about Erin, that storm came a bit close to the east coast in September of 2001, but it never came close enough to actually bring stormm comditions there, just some waves along the East Coast. If that storm curves much more west, and causes hurricane or tropical storm conditions along the East Coast, does this cause the Airports in places like Boston, and NYC to shut down, therefore foiling the hijackers plans for that day? In this way, we trade coastal damage, and maybe some damage to the World Trade Center, for the possablity, that the towers never fall that day, and alot less people die? What are your thoughts on this, is this a real possablity, or is this very much overblown speculation?

8 Comments
2024/06/02
18:44 UTC

14

MOST average storm ever

When people think of significant storms in the past, people think of Wilma (2005) for its extreme wind speed and low pressure, Harvey (2017) for its destruction, Lenny (1999) for its backwards track, and so on and so forth. They think of John (1994) for it crossing three basins, lasting longer than a month, the Bhola cyclone of 1970 for being extremely deadly, Katrina (2005) for being, well, Katrina and Daniel (2023) for forming in the Mediterranean and its extremely high death count.

However, this begs the question, what is the most average storm on record? Average wind speed, average path, average everything. Average month of formation and length of time.

I’m just curious.

6 Comments
2024/06/02
00:10 UTC

4

Question about GIS Data - Cone of Uncertainty

Hi all, I'm working on a hurricane related art piece which responds to live NHC data. I'm wondering if anyone has enough experience with the GIS data from NHC to tell me whether I can somehow parse it to determine whether a specific latitude/longitude coordinate IS or IS NOT within the bounds of a cone of uncertainty for any given cyclone. Any insight would be greatly appreciated! Thanks so much for the consideration.

5 Comments
2024/06/01
14:45 UTC

10

What's your prediction for something specific this hurricane season?

Not necessarily looking for predictions like "an average" or "overactive" season. Rather, something specific. For example, I'll go with something that I feel is a rather safe prediction but could still go unrealized: I predict a major hurricane will land on the gulf coast this year.

Other possible predictions: last hurricane will be in December, or at least one hurricane will reach category 5, etc...

39 Comments
2024/06/01
12:52 UTC

310

Welcome back to /r/TropicalWeather!

Welcome!

Hello, everyone, and welcome back to /r/TropicalWeather! It is great to see you all again and we look forward to tracking tropical cyclones with you again this year.

A look back to 2023.

Last year's Atlantic season was memorable, particularly because it was very active despite the presence of a very strong El Niño event. In fact, with 20 named storms, it tied with the 1933 season to become the fourth-most active Atlantic season on record.

Seasonal highlights

  • The 2023 season was only the fifth to feature the development of a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the month of January.

  • The 2023 season was the most active to be recorded during an El Niño year.

  • The 2023 season featured the fastest sequence of four cyclones developing on record, with Emily, Franklin, Gert, and Harold all forming within a 42-hour period.

  • The 2023 season was the first to feature the development of two tropical storms within the tropical Atlantic (east of 60°W). Most June storms develop over the western Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, or off the southeastern coast of the United States.

Storm highlights

  • Idalia became the most powerful hurricane to strike Florida's Big Bend region since 1950.

  • Lee underwent the third-fastest intensification on record in the Atlantic, with winds increasing by 85 miles per hour (140 kilometers per hour) in just 24 hours.

What's expected for 2024?

Scientists surmise that a combination of environmental factors—such as the emergence of La Niña conditions later this summer and abnormally warm sea-surface temperatures across the Atlantic Ocean—will lead to a very active season. A full rollup of the seasonal forecasts which have been issued in the days leading to the start of the season can be found here.

The National Hurricane Center issued its most aggressive seasonal forecast ever, projecting 17 to 25 named storms, 8 to 13 hurricanes, and 4 to 7 major hurricanes, along with a seasonal accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 150 to 245.

A reminder of the rules.

As the season gets underway, we'd like to give you a brief reminder of our rules. For the sake of brevity, we invite you to read them in our wiki. Some highlights:

  • Please leave tracking threads to us. The moderation staff—*cough* me *cough—uses a template which consolidates information from various sources into one centralized location. If a significant cyclone threatens landfall over the U.S. coastline, we will begin posting daily meteorological tracking threads, along with preparation discussions.

  • Please do not post model data or graphics for greater than 120 hours (5 days) in the future. The accuracy of model guidance begins to decrease steadily after three days and rapidly after five. After that point, model data becomes speculative at best.

  • Do not excessively speculate or intentionally mislead. Many people come to our subreddit looking for the most accurate and timely information regarding weather which threatens their neck of the woods. Please defer to official sources or experts when discussing observed and forecast conditions.

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46 Comments
2024/06/01
07:10 UTC

19

Hurricane U: Seasonal Forecasting with Dr. Phil Klotzbach

0 Comments
2024/05/31
23:25 UTC

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