/r/TropicalWeather
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Current discussions: Global Outlook Faida Vince Taliah Fifteen-P Invest 92P Invest 92W
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92W (Invest — Philippine Sea)
Latest observation
Last updated: Tuesday, 4 February — 9:00 PM Palau Time (PWT; 12:00 UTC)
| ATCF | 9:00 PM PWT (12:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 3.6°N 136.6°E | |
| Relative location: | 475 km (295 mi) NNE of Koror, Palau | |
| Forward motion: | W (275°) at 22 km/h (12 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | 35 km/h (20 knots) | |
| Minimum pressure: | 1005 millibars (29.68 inches) | |
| 2-day potential: (through 9PM Thu) | low (near 0 percent) | |
| 7-day potential: (through 9PM Mon) | low (30 percent) |
Outlook discussion
Last updated: Tuesday, 4 February — 9:00 PM PWT (12:00 UTC)
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has not yet added this system to its Pacific Ocean outlook discussion.
Official information
Japan Meteorological Agency
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
Radar imagery
Not available
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Storm-specific imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
- Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
- CIMSS: Multiple bands
- RAMMB: Multiple bands
- Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Regional imagery
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)
Weather Nerds
Analysis graphics and data
Wind analyses
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface Temperatures
- NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
- Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model guidance
Storm-specific guidance
- Tropical Tidbits
- State University of New York at Albany
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
- Weather Nerds
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
14:11 UTC
92P (Invest — Southern Pacific)
Latest observation
Last updated: Tuesday, 4 February — 11:00 PM Vanuatu Time (VUT; 12:00 UTC)
| ATCF | 11:00 PM VUT (12:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 18.2°S 161.1°E | |
| Relative location: | 718 km (446 mi) NW of Noumea, New Caledonia (France) | |
| 765 km (475 mi) WSW of Port Vila, Shefa (Vanuatu) | ||
| Forward motion: | ▼ | SSE (160°) at 10 km/h (5 knots) |
| Maximum winds: | 55 km/h (30 knots) | |
| Minimum pressure: | 998 millibars (29.47 inches) | |
| 2-day potential: (through 11PM Thu) | ▲ | high (70 percent) |
| 7-day potential: (through 11PM Mon) | ▲ | high (70 percent) |
Outlook discussion
Last updated: Tuesday, 4 February — 11:00 PM VUT (12:00 UTC)
Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)
The Bureau of Meteorology has removed this disturbance from its outlook discussion as it is located outside its area of responsibility.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
Animated enhanced infrared imagery (EIR) depicts a consolidating low level circulation center (LLCC) with persistent deep convection building over the center. A KNES Dvorak intensity of 2.0 remains consistent with previous wind data (30 knots) as well as a 4-millibar reduction in pressure over the last 5 hours further supporting the deep centralized convection.
Environmental analysis indicates that Invest 92P is in a relatively favorable environment for further development due to warm (28 to 29°C) sea surface temperatures, low to moderate (15 to 20-knot) vertical wind shear and strong, radial outflow aloft. Global models are in good agreement that Invest 92P will continue to consolidate over the next 24 hours and track in a general southeasterly direction.
Official information
Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)
Fiji Meteorological Service
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
- Homepage
- Outlook discussion
- Tropical cyclone formation alert (text)
- Tropical cyclone formation alert (graphic)
Radar imagery
Not available
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Storm-specific imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
- Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
- CIMSS: Multiple bands
- RAMMB: Multiple bands
- Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Regional imagery
- CIMSS: Enhanced Infrared
- CIMSS: Water vapor (Upper-level)
- CIMSS: Visible (True Color)
Analysis graphics and data
Wind analyses
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface Temperatures
- NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
- Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model guidance
Storm-specific guidance
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
14:07 UTC
Faida (11S — Southwestern Indian)
Latest observation
Last updated: Tuesday, 4 February — 3:00 AM East Africa Time (EAT; 00:00 UTC)
| JTWC Warning #15 | 3:00 AM EAT (00:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 18.4°S 49.9°E | |
| Relative location: | 61 km (38 mi) ESE of Toamasina, Antsinanana (Madagascar) | |
| Forward motion: | W (290°) at 17 km/h (9 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | ▼ | 75 km/h (40 knots) |
| Intensity (SSHWS): | Tropical Storm | |
| Intensity (MFR): | Zone of Disturbed Weather | |
| Minimum pressure: | ▲ | 998 millibars (29.47 inches) |
Official forecasts
Meteo France
Last updated: Tuesday, 4 February — 9:00 AM EAT (06:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | UTC | EAT | MFR | knots | km/h | °S | °E | ||
| 00 | 04 Feb | 06:00 | 9AM Tue | Zone of Disturbed Weather | 25 | 45 | 19.3 | 50.3 | |
| 12 | 04 Feb | 18:00 | 9PM Tue | Dissipating | ▼ | 20 | 35 | 20.1 | 49.3 |
| 24 | 05 Feb | 06:00 | 9AM Wed | Dissipating | ▼ | 15 | 30 | 20.9 | 48.2 |
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Last updated: Tuesday, 4 February — 3:00 AM EAT (00:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | UTC | EAT | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °S | °E | ||
| 00 | 04 Feb | 00:00 | 3AM Tue | Tropical Storm | 40 | 75 | 18.4 | 49.9 | |
| 12 | 04 Feb | 12:00 | 3PM Tue | Tropical Depression | ▼ | 30 | 55 | 18.6 | 49.0 |
| 24 | 05 Feb | 00:00 | 3AM Wed | Tropical Depression | ▼ | 25 | 45 | 18.7 | 47.7 |
| 36 | 05 Feb | 12:00 | 3PM Wed | Tropical Depression | 25 | 45 | 18.8 | 46.1 | |
| 48 | 06 Feb | 00:00 | 3AM Thu | Tropical Depression | 25 | 45 | 18.8 | 44.8 | |
| 72 | 07 Feb | 00:00 | 3AM Fri | Tropical Depression | ▲ | 30 | 55 | 19.4 | 42.7 |
| 96 | 08 Feb | 00:00 | 3AM Sat | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 35 | 65 | 19.9 | 39.2 |
| 120 | 09 Feb | 00:00 | 3AM Sun | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 40 | 75 | 19.8 | 36.1 |
Official information
Meteo France
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
Radar imagery
Not available
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Storm-specific imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
- Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
- CIMSS: Multiple bands
- RAMMB: Multiple bands
- Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Regional imagery
- CIMSS: Enhanced Infrared
- CIMSS: Water vapor
- CIMSS: Visible
Analysis graphics and data
Wind analyses
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface Temperatures
- NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
- Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model guidance
Storm-specific guidance
- Tropical Tidbits
- State University of New York at Albany
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
- Weather Nerds
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
07:27 UTC
Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 3-9 February 2025
Global outlook
Last updated: Tuesday, 4 February 2025 — 12:00 UTC
Active cyclones
Southwestern Indian Ocean
Southeastern Indian Ocean
Southern Pacific
Active disturbances
Southern Pacific Ocean
Northwestern Pacific Ocean
Areas of potential future development
Southeastern Indian Ocean
- Potential Formation Area 79S — northeast of Madagascar
Southern Pacific Ocean
Potential Formation Area 73P — Coral Sea
Potential Formation Area 78W — Philippine Sea (east of Invest 92W)
Satellite imagery
Regional imagery
Infrared imagery
- Western Pacific
- Eastern Pacific
- Northern Atlantic
- Northern Indian (Arabian Sea)
- Northern Indian (Bay of Bengal)
- Southwestern Indian
- Southeastern Indian
Model guidance
Regional guidance (GFS)
Information sources
Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)
Other sources
Global outlooks
Climate Prediction Center
07:20 UTC
Vince (13S — Southeastern Indian)
Latest observation
Last updated: Tuesday, 4 February — 12:00 PM Indian Ocean Time (IOT; 06:00 UTC)
| JTWC Warning #6 | 12:00 PM IOT (06:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 17.8°S 90.1°E | |
| Relative location: | 957 km (595 mi) SW of West Island, Cocos Islands (Australia) | |
| 2,242 km (1,393 mi) ESE of Diego Garcia (United Kingdom) | ||
| Forward motion: | SW (235°) at 19 km/h (10 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | ▲ | 185 km/h (100 knots) |
| Intensity (SSHWS): | ▲ | Major Hurricane (Category 3) |
| Intensity (MFR): | ▲ | Cyclone |
| Minimum pressure: | ▼ | 958 millibars (28.29 inches) |
Official forecasts
Meteo France
Last updated: Tuesday, 4 February — 6:00 PM IOT (12:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | UTC | IOT | MFR | knots | km/h | °S | °E | ||
| 00 | 04 Feb | 12:00 | 6PM Tue | Cyclone | 70 | 130 | 18.0 | 89.0 | |
| 12 | 04 Feb | 00:00 | 6AM Wed | Cyclone | ▼ | 65 | 120 | 18.8 | 86.7 |
| 24 | 05 Feb | 12:00 | 6PM Wed | Cyclone | ▲ | 70 | 130 | 19.4 | 84.5 |
| 36 | 05 Feb | 00:00 | 6AM Thu | Cyclone | ▲ | 75 | 140 | 19.8 | 82.7 |
| 48 | 06 Feb | 12:00 | 6PM Thu | Intense Cyclone | ▲ | 90 | 165 | 20.3 | 80.7 |
| 60 | 06 Feb | 00:00 | 6AM Fri | Intense Cyclone | 90 | 165 | 20.7 | 78.6 | |
| 72 | 07 Feb | 00:00 | 6PM Fri | Cyclone | ▼ | 85 | 155 | 21.2 | 76.2 |
| 96 | 08 Feb | 00:00 | 6PM Sat | Cyclone | ▼ | 80 | 150 | 22.2 | 72.0 |
| 120 | 09 Feb | 00:00 | 6PM Sun | Cyclone | ▼ | 75 | 140 | 23.2 | 69.1 |
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Last updated: Tuesday, 4 February — 12:00 PM IOT (06:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | UTC | IOT | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °S | °E | ||
| 00 | 04 Feb | 06:00 | 12PM Tue | Major Hurricane (Category 3) | 100 | 185 | 17.8 | 90.1 | |
| 12 | 04 Feb | 18:00 | 12AM Wed | Major Hurricane (Category 3) | 100 | 185 | 18.4 | 88.0 | |
| 24 | 05 Feb | 06:00 | 12PM Wed | Hurricane (Category 2) | ▲ | 95 | 175 | 19.1 | 85.7 |
| 36 | 05 Feb | 18:00 | 12AM Thu | Hurricane (Category 2) | ▼ | 90 | 165 | 19.6 | 83.9 |
| 48 | 06 Feb | 06:00 | 12PM Thu | Hurricane (Category 2) | ▼ | 85 | 155 | 20.2 | 82.1 |
| 72 | 07 Feb | 06:00 | 12PM Fri | Hurricane (Category 2) | ▲ | 90 | 165 | 21.0 | 77.8 |
| 96 | 08 Feb | 06:00 | 12PM Sat | Hurricane (Category 2) | ▲ | 95 | 175 | 22.0 | 73.4 |
| 120 | 09 Feb | 06:00 | 12PM Sun | Major Hurricane (Category 3) | ▼ | 100 | 185 | 23.2 | 70.2 |
Official information
Meteo France
Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)
- Current tropical cyclones
- Tropical cyclone technical bulletin
- Tropical cyclone information bulletin
- Forecast track map
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
Radar imagery
Not available
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
Single bandwidth imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / shortwave infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared (Dvorak enhancement)
- Tropical Tidbits: Water vapor
Multiple bandwidth imagery
The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.
Regional imagery
- CIMSS: Enhanced Infrared
- CIMSS: Water vapor
- CIMSS: Visible
Analysis products
Best track data
Wind analysis and storm intensity estimation products
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History
- NESDIS: Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis
- CIMSS: Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
- CIMSS: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus (SATCON)
- CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface temperature analysis products
- NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
- Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model products
Storm-specific model guidance
Storm-centered guidance
Track guidance
Track and intensity guidance
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
Weathernerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weathernerds: ECENS (120 hours)
01:05 UTC
15P (Southern Pacific)
Latest observation
Last updated: Tuesday, 4 February — 11:00 AM Vanuatu Time (VUT; 00:00 UTC)
| JTWC Warning #4 | 11:00 AM VUT (00:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 21.4°S 169.3°E | |
| Relative location: | 311 km (193 mi) ENE of Noumea, New Caledonia (France) | |
| 419 km (260 mi) SSE of Port Vila, Shefa (Vanuatu) | ||
| Forward motion: | E (105°) at 20 km/h (11 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | ▼ | 55 km/h (30 knots) |
| Intensity (SSHWS): | Tropical Depression | |
| Intensity (BOM): | Tropical Depression | |
| Minimum pressure: | ▲ | 997 millibars (29.44 inches) |
Official forecasts
Fiji Meteorological Service
The Fiji Meteorological Service has not yet initiated advisories for this system.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Last updated: Tuesday, 4 February — 11:00 AM VUT (00:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | UTC | VUT | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °S | °E | ||
| 00 | 04 Feb | 00:00 | 11AM Tue | Tropical Depression | 30 | 55 | 21.4 | 169.3 | |
| 12 | 04 Feb | 12:00 | 11PM Tue | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 35 | 65 | 21.7 | 170.7 |
| 24 | 05 Feb | 00:00 | 11AM Wed | Tropical Storm | 35 | 65 | 22.1 | 172.0 | |
| 36 | 05 Feb | 12:00 | 11PM Wed | Tropical Storm | 35 | 65 | 22.6 | 173.5 | |
| 48 | 06 Feb | 00:00 | 11AM Thu | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 40 | 75 | 23.4 | 175.0 |
| 72 | 07 Feb | 00:00 | 11AM Fri | Tropical Storm | 40 | 75 | 25.4 | 175.8 | |
| 96 | 08 Feb | 00:00 | 11AM Sat | Extratropical Cyclone | ▼ | 35 | 65 | 28.6 | 178.5 |
Official information
Fiji Meteorological Service
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
Satellite imagery
Storm-specific imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
- Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
- CIMSS: Multiple bands
- RAMMB: Multiple bands
- Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Regional imagery
- CIMSS: Enhanced Infrared
- CIMSS: Water vapor (Upper-level)
- CIMSS: Visible (True Color)
Analysis graphics and data
Wind analyses
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface Temperatures
- NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
- Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model guidance
Storm-specific guidance
- Tropical Tidbits
- State University of New York at Albany
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
- Weather Nerds
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
00:57 UTC
Taliah (14S — Southeastern Indian)
Latest observation
Last updated: Tuesday, 4 February — 1:00 PM Christmas Island Time (CXT; 06:00 UTC)
| JTWC Warning #7 | 1:00 PM CXT (06:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 15.5°S 110.9°E | |
| Relative location: | 796 km (495 mi) SE of Christmas Island (Australia) | |
| Forward motion: | WSW (265°) at 24 km/h (13 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | ▲ | 155 km/h (85 knots) |
| Intensity (SSHWS): | ▲ | Hurricane (Category 2) |
| Intensity (BOM): | ▲ | Severe Cyclone (Category 3) |
| Minimum pressure: | ▼ | 972 millibars (28.7 inches) |
Official forecasts
Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)
Last updated: Tuesday, 4 February — 7:00 PM CXT (12:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | UTC | CXT | BOM | knots | km/h | °S | °E | ||
| 00 | 04 Feb | 12:00 | 7PM Tue | Severe Cyclone (Category 3) | 70 | 130 | 15.7 | 110.4 | |
| 12 | 04 Feb | 00:00 | 7AM Wed | Severe Cyclone (Category 3) | ▲ | 75 | 140 | 15.7 | 108.4 |
| 24 | 05 Feb | 12:00 | 7PM Wed | Severe Cyclone (Category 3) | ▼ | 70 | 130 | 15.4 | 106.3 |
| 36 | 05 Feb | 00:00 | 7AM Thu | Severe Cyclone (Category 3) | ▼ | 65 | 120 | 15.2 | 103.9 |
| 48 | 06 Feb | 12:00 | 7PM Thu | Cyclone (Category 2) | ▼ | 60 | 110 | 15.5 | 101.6 |
| 60 | 06 Feb | 00:00 | 7AM Fri | Cyclone (Category 2) | 60 | 110 | 15.8 | 99.1 | |
| 72 | 07 Feb | 00:00 | 7PM Fri | Cyclone (Category 2) | 60 | 110 | 16.2 | 96.6 | |
| 96 | 08 Feb | 00:00 | 7PM Sat | Severe Cyclone (Category 3) | ▲ | 75 | 140 | 16.5 | 92.8 |
| 120 | 09 Feb | 00:00 | 7PM Sun | Severe Cyclone (Category 3) | ▲ | 85 | 155 | 16.9 | 90.6 |
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Last updated: Tuesday, 4 February — 1:00 PM CXT (06:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | UTC | CXT | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °S | °E | ||
| 00 | 04 Feb | 06:00 | 1PM Tue | Hurricane (Category 2) | 85 | 155 | 15.5 | 110.9 | |
| 12 | 04 Feb | 18:00 | 1AM Wed | Hurricane (Category 2) | 85 | 155 | 15.8 | 108.9 | |
| 24 | 05 Feb | 06:00 | 1PM Wed | Hurricane (Category 2) | 85 | 155 | 15.8 | 106.7 | |
| 36 | 05 Feb | 18:00 | 1AM Thu | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▼ | 80 | 150 | 15.7 | 104.4 |
| 48 | 06 Feb | 06:00 | 1PM Thu | Hurricane (Category 1) | 80 | 150 | 15.8 | 102.0 | |
| 72 | 07 Feb | 06:00 | 1PM Fri | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▼ | 75 | 140 | 16.7 | 97.0 |
| 96 | 08 Feb | 06:00 | 1PM Sat | Hurricane (Category 1) | 75 | 140 | 16.9 | 92.5 | |
| 120 | 09 Feb | 06:00 | 1PM Sun | Hurricane (Category 1) | 75 | 140 | 17.3 | 89.5 |
Official information
Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)
- Current tropical cyclones
- Tropical cyclone technical bulletin
- Tropical cyclone information bulletin
- Forecast track map
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
Radar imagery
Not available
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
Single bandwidth imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / shortwave infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared (Dvorak enhancement)
- Tropical Tidbits: Water vapor
Multiple bandwidth imagery
The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.
Regional imagery
- CIMSS: Enhanced Infrared
- CIMSS: Water vapor
- CIMSS: Visible
Analysis products
Best track data
Wind analysis and storm intensity estimation products
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History
- NESDIS: Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis
- CIMSS: Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
- CIMSS: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus (SATCON)
- CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface temperature analysis products
- NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
- Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model products
Storm-specific model guidance
Storm-centered guidance
Track guidance
Track and intensity guidance
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
Weathernerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weathernerds: ECENS (120 hours)
08:05 UTC
Elvis (12S — Mozambique Channel)
NOTE: Both Meteo France (RSMC Reunion) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center have discontinued issuing advisories for this system. As Elvis has transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone and no longer poses a threat to land, there will be no further updates to this post.
Latest observation
Last updated: Friday, 31 January — 9:00 PM East Africa Time (EAT; 18:00 UTC)
| JTWC Warning #6 | 9:00 PM EAT (18:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 34.1°S 51.9°E | |
| Relative location: | 1,112 km (691 mi) SSE of Taolanaro, Anosy Region (Madagascar) | |
| Forward motion: | ESE (125°) at 46 km/h (25 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | 65 km/h (35 knots) | |
| Intensity (SSHWS): | ▼ | Extratropical Cyclone |
| Intensity (MFR): | ▼ | Post-tropical Depression |
| Minimum pressure: | 994 millibars (29.35 inches) |
Official forecasts
Meteo France
Last updated: Friday, 31 January — 9:00 AM EAT (06:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | UTC | EAT | MFR | knots | km/h | °S | °E | ||
| 00 | 31 Jan | 06:00 | 9AM Fri | Post-tropical Depression | 40 | 75 | 31.5 | 48.3 | |
| 12 | 31 Jan | 18:00 | 9PM Fri | Post-tropical Depression | ▼ | 35 | 65 | 34.0 | 50.6 |
| 24 | 01 Feb | 06:00 | 9AM Sat | Post-tropical Depression | 35 | 65 | 37.7 | 53.7 | |
| 36 | 01 Feb | 18:00 | 9PM Sat | Extratropical Depression | ▲ | 40 | 75 | 42.5 | 59.1 |
| 48 | 02 Feb | 06:00 | 9AM Sun | Extratropical Depression | ▲ | 45 | 85 | 46.9 | 65.3 |
| 60 | 02 Feb | 18:00 | 9PM Sun | Extratropical Depression | 45 | 85 | 48.9 | 71.7 | |
| 72 | 03 Feb | 18:00 | 9AM Mon | Extratropical Depression | 45 | 85 | 49.4 | 78.4 |
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Last updated: Friday, 31 January — 9:00 PM EAT (18:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | UTC | EAT | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °S | °E | ||
| 00 | 31 Jan | 18:00 | 9PM Fri | Extratropical Cyclone | 35 | 65 | 34.1 | 51.9 | |
| 12 | 31 Jan | 06:00 | 9AM Sat | Extratropical Cyclone | 35 | 65 | 38.4 | 55.8 |
Official information
Meteo France
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
Radar imagery
Not available
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Storm-specific imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
- Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
- CIMSS: Multiple bands
- RAMMB: Multiple bands
- Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Regional imagery
- CIMSS: Enhanced Infrared
- CIMSS: Water vapor
- CIMSS: Visible
Analysis graphics and data
Wind analyses
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface Temperatures
- NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
- Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model guidance
Storm-specific guidance
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10:06 UTC
96P (Invest — Coral Sea)
Latest observation
Last updated: Saturday, 1 February — 4:00 AM Australia Eastern Standard Time (AEST; 18:00 UTC)
| ATCF | 4:00 AM AEST (18:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 17.3°S 146.0°E | |
| Relative location: | 49 km (30 mi) SE of Cairns, Queensland (Australia) | |
| Forward motion: | ▲ | NW (315°) at 18 km/h (10 knots) |
| Maximum winds: | ▼ | 35 km/h (20 knots) |
| Minimum pressure: | ▼ | 999 millibars (29.50 inches) |
| 2-day potential: (through 4AM Mon) | ▼ | low (20 percent) |
| 7-day potential: (through 4AM Fri) | ▼ | low (20 percent) |
Outlook discussion
Last updated: Saturday, 1 February — 4:00 AM AEST (18:00 UTC)
Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)
Tropical low impacting the northeast Queensland coast.
- A Severe Weather Warning is current for hazards associated with 13U and should be referred to for more details.
- A tropical low (13U) lies offshore, to the southeast of Cairns.
- The risk of 13U becoming a tropical cyclone has decreased and as such this disturbance will not appear on subsequent tropical cyclone forecasts. The situation will continue to be monitored and updated here if required.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts a poorly-organized low level circulation center (LLCC) with weak and disorganized convection. The low level circulation center has been repositioned into a relatively cloud free area surrounded by tightly curved banding. The new LLCC is in good agreement with GFS fields and is indicative of an immature circulation that has been moving erratically thus far. Environmental analysis reveals that Invest 96P is in a favorable environment for further development with good equatorward outflow aloft, warm (29 to 30°C) sea surface temperatures, and low (5 to 10 knots) vertical wind shear.
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Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)
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Cairns, Queensland
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06:59 UTC
Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 27 January - 2 February 2025
Global outlook
Last updated: Sunday, 2 February 2025 — 08:00 UTC
Active cyclones
Southwestern Indian Ocean
Southeastern Indian Ocean
Active disturbances
Southern Pacific Ocean
Invest 96P (Tropical Low 13U) (Coral Sea)
Invest 91P (Tropical Low 16U) (Coral Sea)
Areas of potential future development
Southeastern Indian Ocean
- Potential Formation Area 79S — northeast of Madagascar
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22:39 UTC
Why do tropical cyclones seem to go extratropical at lower latitudes in the southern hemisphere?
I dont know if the title is worded well so sorry, but I've noticed that in the southern hem tropical cyclones tend to go fully extratropical before or around 30S. I'll use an example from what I've seen, northern new zealand and north carolina are the same latitude away from the equator, yet NC gets many hurricanes and even have had full blown cat 4s (hazel). Where as for new zealand which is the same latitude just in the southern hemisphere, most tropical cyclones that reach us are much weaker (even a cat1 strength storm is rare and ive never heard of anything above a cat2) and are usually extratropical/subtropical by the time they get here. In the atlantic ive seen tropical storms survive into the 50Ns, where as in the south pacific or anywhere in the southern hem ive never seen anything stay tropical lower than 35S. Is there a specific reason for this or am I just making wrong assumptions based on what ive seen? Thanks
06:12 UTC
Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 20-26 January 2025
Active cyclones
Last updated: Friday, 24 January — 10:00 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC)
There are currently no active cyclones.
Active disturbances
Southwestern Indian
No longer active systems
Southern Pacific
Dikiledi (07S) — dissipated
Sean (10S) — degenerated into a remnant low
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20:47 UTC
Sean (10S — Southeastern Indian)
Latest observation
Last updated: Wednesday, 22 January — 8:00 PM Australia Western Standard Time (AWST; 12:00 UTC)
| JTWC Warning #19 | 8:00 PM AWST (12:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 28.2°S 107.2°E | |
| Relative location: | 727 km (452 mi) W of Geraldton, Western Australia (Australia) | |
| Forward motion: | ▼ | SE (150°) at 6 km/h (3 knots) |
| Maximum winds: | ▼ | 75 km/h (40 knots) |
| Intensity (SSHWS): | Tropical Storm | |
| Intensity (BOM): | Post-tropical Cyclone | |
| Minimum pressure: | ▲ | 992 millibars (29.29 inches) |
Official forecasts
Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)
The Bureau of Meteorology is no longer issuing advisories for this system.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Last updated: Wednesday, 22 January — 8:00 PM AWST (12:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | UTC | AWST | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °S | °E | ||
| 00 | 22 Jan | 12:00 | 8PM Wed | Tropical Storm | 40 | 75 | 28.2 | 107.2 | |
| 12 | 22 Jan | 00:00 | 8AM Thu | Post-tropical Cyclone | ▼ | 35 | 65 | 29.5 | 107.9 |
| 24 | 23 Jan | 12:00 | 8PM Thu | Remnant Low | ▼ | 30 | 55 | 31.3 | 109.0 |
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Geraldton, Western Australia
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19:14 UTC
Dikeledi (07S — Southwestern Indian)
Latest observation
Last updated: Friday, 17 January — 9:00 AM East Africa Time (EAT; 06:00 UTC)
| JTWC Warning #16 | 9:00 AM EAT (06:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 33.7°S 54.8°E | |
| Relative location: | 1,423 km (884 mi) S of Saint-Denis, Réunion (France) | |
| Forward motion: | E (110°) at 52 km/h (28 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | ▼ | 95 km/h (50 knots) |
| Intensity (SSHWS): | ▼ | Tropical Storm |
| Intensity (MFR): | ▼ | Post-tropical Cyclone |
| Minimum pressure: | ▲ | 989 millibars (29.21 inches) |
Official forecasts
Meteo France
Last updated: Friday, 17 January — 9:00 AM EAT (06:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | UTC | EAT | MFR | knots | km/h | °S | °E | ||
| 00 | 17 Jan | 06:00 | 9AM Fri | Post-tropical Cyclone | 60 | 110 | 33.8 | 54.6 | |
| 12 | 17 Jan | 18:00 | 9PM Fri | Post-tropical Cyclone | ▼ | 50 | 95 | 34.7 | 61.5 |
| 24 | 18 Jan | 06:00 | 9AM Sat | Extratropical Cyclone | ▼ | 40 | 75 | 34.6 | 67.7 |
| 36 | 18 Jan | 18:00 | 9PM Sat | Extratropical Cyclone | ▼ | 30 | 55 | 34.1 | 73.8 |
| 48 | 19 Jan | 06:00 | 9AM Sun | Extratropical Cyclone | 30 | 55 | 34.1 | 78.6 | |
| 60 | 19 Jan | 18:00 | 9PM Sun | Extratropical Cyclone | ▼ | 25 | 45 | 34.1 | 80.7 |
| 72 | 20 Jan | 18:00 | 9AM Mon | Extratropical Cyclone | 25 | 45 | 34.1 | 82.5 |
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Last updated: Friday, 17 January — 9:00 AM EAT (06:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | UTC | EAT | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °S | °E | ||
| 00 | 17 Jan | 06:00 | 9AM Fri | Tropical Storm | 50 | 95 | 33.7 | 54.8 | |
| 12 | 17 Jan | 18:00 | 9PM Fri | Tropical Storm | ▼ | 40 | 75 | 34.5 | 61.2 |
| 24 | 18 Jan | 06:00 | 9AM Sat | Extratropical Cyclone | ▼ | 35 | 65 | 34.3 | 67.7 |
Official information
Meteo France
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
Radar imagery
Not available
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
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21:27 UTC
Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 13-19 January 2025
Active cyclones
Last updated: Saturday, 18 January — 06:00 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC)
Southwestern Indian
Active disturbances
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Systems without discussions
No longer active systems
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- Pita — degenerated into a remnant low, later dissipated
Southeastern Indian
Invest 97S — dissipated
Invest 90S — merged with 91S and became tropical cyclone
Invest 91S — merged with 90S and became tropical cyclone
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21:06 UTC
Cyclopedia - An interactive hurricane database!
Hi there! Just wanted to show y'all a little research project I've been building in my spare time. Though quite similar in functionality to historical hurricane tracks by NOAA, I've added some additional features. Check it out!
19:42 UTC
Pita (08P — Southern Pacific)
Latest observation
Last updated: Sunday, 12 January — 2:00 PM Cook Islands Time (CKT; 00:00 UTC)
| ATCF | 2:00 PM CKT (00:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 22.1°S 154.1°W | |
| Relative location: | 140 km (87 mi) WNW of Anapoto, Tubuai (French Polynesia) | |
| Forward motion: | ▼ | ENE (70°) at 18 km/h (10 knots) |
| Maximum winds: | 55 km/h (30 knots) | |
| Intensity (SSHWS): | Remnant Low | |
| Intensity (FMS): | Remnant Low | |
| Minimum pressure: | ▼ | 999 millibars (29.50 inches) |
Outlook discussion
Last updated: Sunday, 12 January — 2:00 PM CKT (0:00 UTC)
Both the Fiji Meteorological Department and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center have discontinued issuing advisories for this system.
Official information
Fiji Meteorological Service
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
Satellite imagery
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16:55 UTC
97S (Invest — Southeastern Indian)
Latest observation
Last updated: Wednesday, 15 January — 6:00 PM Indian Ocean Time (IOT; 12:00 UTC)
| ATCF | 6:00 PM IOT (12:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 14.5°S 91.0°E | |
| Relative location: | 682 km (424 mi) WSW of West Island, Cocos Islands (Australia) | |
| Forward motion: | ▼ | W (275°) at 15 km/h (8 knots) |
| Maximum winds: | 35 km/h (20 knots) | |
| Minimum pressure: | 1008 millibars (29.77 inches) | |
| 2-day potential: (through 6PM Fri) | ▼ | low (near 0 percent) |
| 7-day potential: (through 6PM Tue) | ▼ | low (near 0 percent) |
Outlook discussion
Last updated: Wednesday, 15 January — 6:00 PM IOT (12:00 UTC)
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has removed this system from its Indian Ocean outlook discussion.
Official information
Australia Bureau of Meteorology
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
Radar imagery
Not available
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
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16:21 UTC
Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 6-12 January 2025
Active cyclones
Last updated: Thursday, 9 January — 15:00 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC)
Southwestern Indian
Active disturbances
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Southern Pacific
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- Invest 96P — transitioned into an extratropical cyclone
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16:16 UTC
96P (Invest — Southern Pacific)
NOTE: This system has either dissipated or is no longer actively being monitored for potential development.
Latest observation
Last updated: Wednesday, 8 January — 8:00 AM Cook Islands Time (CKT; 18:00 UTC)
| ATCF | 8:00 AM CKT (18:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 28.0°S 159.0°W | |
| Relative location: | 682 km (424 mi) S of Mangaia, Cook Islands | |
| Forward motion: | ▼ | E (95°) at 36 km/h (20 knots) |
| Maximum winds: | 55 km/h (30 knots) | |
| Minimum pressure: | 997 millibars (29.44 inches) |
Official information
Fiji Meteorological Service
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
Satellite imagery
Storm-specific imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
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Regional imagery
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Analysis graphics and data
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- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
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Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
08:17 UTC