/r/TropicalWeather
The intent of this subreddit is to provide a centralized location to discuss tropical cyclone, including their climatology, their development, their movement, and their impacts to life, property, and the environment. The moderator staff strives to minimize excessive speculation and fearmongering and to distribute and emphasize lifesaving information from official sources.
Current discussions: Global Outlook Trami Dana Kristy
Current discussions
Global Outlook
Eastern Pacific
12E — Kristy
Western Pacific
22W — Trami
Northern Indian
03B — Dana
Filter By Basin
Northern Atlantic
Eastern Pacific
Central Pacific
Western Pacific
Northern Indian
Southern Hemisphere
Clear filters
Important Threads and Links
Tropical Weather Discord
Tropical Weather Twitter
Hurricane Supplies Megathread
Tropical Weather Wiki
Twitter List of WX accounts
Comprehensive Tropical Cyclone Links List
Weather Multireddit
Subreddit Rules
Posts must be related to tropical cyclones.
Do not post duplicate tracking threads.
Do not post a new thread for every NHC/RSMC update.
Do not attack, troll, or threaten other users.
Do not post sexually explicit content or spam.
Do not post hard paywalled content.
Do not discuss politics, regardless of level.
Do not post no-/low-effort posts or memes.
Do not post intentionally misleading information.
Do not fear-monger.
Do not excessively speculate.
Do not post model data or ask for forecast advice beyond 5 days (120 hours) in the future.
Do not post content from prohibited sources, including AccuWeather, Force Thirteen, and Direct Weather.
Contact us to be verified as a meteorologist!
This subreddit is night mode compatible!
/r/TropicalWeather
153,031 Subscribers
Kong-rey's eye
Of all the cyclone pictures i've ever seen this is probably one of the most bizzare and somewhat creepy eyes i've ever seen
23:11 UTC
Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 28 October - 3 November
Current discussions
Last updated: Tuesday, 29 October — 07:20 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC)
Northern Atlantic
Eastern Pacific
Western Pacific
Areas of interest without current discussions
As of Tuesday morning, there should be a discussion for every active cyclone and disturbance.
Satellite imagery
Regional imagery
Infrared imagery
- Western Pacific
- Eastern Pacific
- Northern Atlantic
- Northern Indian (Arabian Sea)
- Northern Indian (Bay of Bengal)
- Southwestern Indian
- Southeastern Indian
Model guidance
Regional guidance (GFS)
Information sources
Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)
Other sources
Global outlooks
Climate Prediction Center
07:24 UTC
Explain like I’m five - storm chasers in the eyes of hurricanes vs. the rest of us
Hello! This is possibly a stupid explain like I’m five. I stayed for Milton approx. 30 miles inland from the coast and went through the eye walls. The damage in our area was significant but not devastating - loss of power for multiple days, significant tree loss and damage, medium home and roof damage.
How are storm chasers able to ride out hurricanes going through the eye walls and come out fairly unscathed in their cars? I have a hard time wrapping my head around them staying relatively safe in a car vs. the rest of us hunkering down in our homes and sustaining damage. Depending on the strength of a tornado, I know that’s the worst place to be during a tornado. What’s the difference between tornado winds vs hurricane eye wall winds that keeps them safe (relatively speaking).
Again…probably stupid but if someone could break it down for me I’d appreciate it!
19:18 UTC
91E (Invest — Eastern Pacific)
Latest Observation
Last updated: Monday, 28 October — 8:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (HST; 06:00 UTC)
| ATCF | 8:00 PM HST (06:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 11.2°N 129.5°W | |
| Relative location: | 2,373 km (1,475 mi) SW of Puerto San Carlos, Baja California Sur (Mexico) | |
| 2,897 km (1,800 mi) E of Hilo, Hawaii (United States) | ||
| Forward motion: | W (280°) at 28 km/h (15 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | 45 km/h (25 knots) | |
| Minimum pressure: | 1007 millibars (29.74 inches) | |
| 2-day potential: (through 8PM Wed) | low (20 percent) | |
| 7-day potential: (through 8PM Sun) | ▼ | medium (40 percent) |
Outlook discussion
Last updated: Monday, 28 October — 8:00 PM HST (06:00 UTC)
Discussion by: Dr. Richard Pasch — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit
A broad area of low pressure located about 1500 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized shower activity. Although there has been little change in this system over the past day or so, a tropical depression could still form in a few days while the system moves generally westward at about 15 mph. This system is expected to cross into the Central Pacific Basin by the end of the week.
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Text products
Graphical products
Surface analyses
Outlook graphics
Last updated: Monday, 28 October — 7:03 PM HST (05:03 UTC)
Radar imagery
Not available
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Disturbance-specific imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
- Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
- CIMSS: Multiple bands
- RAMMB: Multiple bands
- Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Regional imagery
NOAA GOES Image Viewer
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)
Tropical Tidbits
Weather Nerds
Forecast models
Disturbance-specific guidance
Ensembles
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
Dynamical
Tropical Cyclogenesis Products
- Florida State University: Experimental tropical cyclone genesis guidance
11:56 UTC
The NHC is monitoring the southwestern Caribbean Sea for potential tropical cyclone development
Latest outlook
Last updated: Thursday, 31 October — 12:00 AM Central Standard Time (CST; 06:00 UTC)
Discussion by Eric Blake — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the end of the week. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts generally northward or northwestward over the central or western Caribbean Sea.
Development potential
| Time frame | Potential | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-day potential: (by 12AM Sat) | low (near 0 percent) | |
| 7-day potential: (by 12AM Wed) | ▲ | medium (50 percent) |
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Text products
Graphical products
Surface analyses
Outlook graphics
Last updated: Wednesday, 30 October — 11:08 PM CST (05:08 UTC)
Aircraft reconnaissance
National Hurricane Center
Radar imagery
Unavailable
Radar imagery is not available for this system.
Satellite imagery
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)
Tropical Tidbits
Forecast models
Dynamical models
Ensemble models
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
Tropical Cyclogenesis Products
- Florida State University: Experimental tropical cyclone genesis graphics
02:53 UTC
Kong-rey (23W — Philippine Sea)
Latest observation
Last updated: Thursday, 31 October — 8:00 AM Taiwan Time (TWT; 00:00 UTC)
| JTWC Warning #25 | 8:00 AM TWT (00:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 22.0°N 122.2°E | |
| Relative location: | 138 km (86 mi) ESE of Taitung, Taiwan | |
| Forward motion: | NW (330°) at 20 km/h (11 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | ▼ | 205 km/h (110 knots) |
| Intensity (SSHWS): | ▼ | Major Hurricane (Category 3) |
| Intensity (JMA): | Very Strong Typhoon [see note] | |
| Minimum pressure: | ▲ | 938 millibars (27.7 inches) |
^NOTE ^- ^Based ^on ^the ^Japan ^Meteorological ^Agency's ^ten-minute ^maximum ^sustained ^wind ^estimate ^of ^155 ^kilometers ^per ^hour ^(85 ^knots).
Official forecasts
Japan Meteorological Agency
Last updated: Thursday, 31 October — 2:00 PM TWT (06:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | UTC | TWT | JMA | knots | km/h | °N | °E | ||
| 00 | 31 Oct | 06:00 | 2PM Thu | Very Strong Typhoon | 85 | 155 | 23.2 | 121.3 | |
| 12 | 31 Oct | 18:00 | 2AM Fri | Tropical Depression | ▼ | 30 | 55 | 25.0 | 120.1 |
| 24 | 01 Nov | 06:00 | 2PM Fri | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 40 | 75 | 27.8 | 121.0 |
| 48 | 02 Nov | 06:00 | 2PM Sat | Extratropical Cyclone | ▼ | 30 | 55 | 31.3 | 128.7 |
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Last updated: Thursday, 31 October — 11:00 AM TWT (03:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | UTC | TWT | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °E | ||
| 00 | 31 Oct | 00:00 | 8AM Thu | Major Hurricane (Category 3) | 110 | 205 | 22.0 | 122.2 | |
| 12 | 31 Oct | 12:00 | 8PM Thu | Hurricane (Category 1) ^1 | ▲ | 80 | 150 | 24.0 | 120.8 |
| 24 | 01 Nov | 00:00 | 8AM Fri | Tropical Storm | ▼ | 60 | 110 | 26.1 | 120.9 |
| 36 | 01 Nov | 12:00 | 8PM Fri | Tropical Storm | ▼ | 50 | 95 | 28.5 | 122.5 |
| 48 | 02 Nov | 00:00 | 8AM Sat | Tropical Storm | ▼ | 45 | 85 | 30.4 | 126.0 |
| 72 | 03 Nov | 00:00 | 8AM Sun | Tropical Storm | ▼ | 40 | 75 | 32.8 | 138.3 |
| 96 | 04 Nov | 00:00 | 8AM Mon | Extratropical Cyclone | 40 | 75 | 34.6 | 155.2 |
^NOTES:
^1 - ^inland
Official information
Japan Meteorological Agency
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration
Central Weather Administration (Taiwan) / 交通部中央氣象署 (中華民國)
National Meteorological Center (China) / 中央氣象臺 (中华人民共和国)
Radar imagery
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration
Japan Meteorological Agency
Central Weather Administration (Taiwan) / 交通部中央氣象署 (中華民國)
National Meteorological Center (China) / 中央氣象臺 (中华人民共和国)
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
Single bandwidth imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / shortwave infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared (Dvorak enhancement)
- Tropical Tidbits: Water vapor
Multiple bandwidth imagery
The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.
Regional imagery
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)
Weather Nerds
Analysis products
Best track data
Surface analysis products
Japan Meteorological Agency
Wind analysis and storm intensity estimation products
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History
- NESDIS: Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis
- CIMSS: Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
- CIMSS: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus (SATCON)
- CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface temperature analysis products
- NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
- Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model products
Disturbance-specific model guidance
Storm-centered guidance
Track guidance
Track and intensity guidance
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
02:41 UTC
This piece of sheet metal impaled through a tree
This trailer park near my house in Terra Ceia was torn up badly. This piece of metal is id guess 40ft or more up this Cedar, stuck through by a branch. It put me in mind of the "Fence Post Through a Tree" photograph from the early 20th century
15:20 UTC
Have any of yall been through any hurricanes and so what ones
For me I live in Pittsburgh so we don’t get anything bad 99% of the time except for remnants but some that I have experienced or remembered were, Irene, Sandy, Florence, and Ida (mind you none of these were bad but caused some flash flooding from the rain but have yall experienced any?
04:14 UTC
Trami (22W — South China Sea)
Latest Observation
Last updated: Tuesday, 29 October — 1:00 PM Indochina Time (ICT; 06:00 UTC)
| ATCF | 1:00 PM ICT (06:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 16.6°N 109.3°E | |
| Relative location: | 133 km (82 mi) ENE of Da Nang, Vietnam | |
| Forward motion: | ENE (70°) at 6 km/h (3 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | ▼ | 30 km/h (15 knots) |
| Minimum pressure: | 1003 millibars (29.62 inches) |
Official forecasts
Japan Meteorological Agency
The JMA discontinued issuing advisory products for this system at 7:00 AM ICT (00:00 UTC) on Monday.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
The JTWC discontinued issuing advisory products for this system at 4:00 AM ICT (21:00 UTC) on Tuesday.
Official information
Japan Meteorological Agency
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
Trung tâm Dự báo Khí tượng Thủy văn Quốc gia (National Center for Hydrometeorological Forecasting) (Vietnam)
Radar imagery
Trung Tâm Mạng Lưới KTTV Quốc Gia (National Hydrometeorological Network Center) (Vietnam)
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
Single bandwidth imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / shortwave infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared (Dvorak enhancement)
- Tropical Tidbits: Water vapor
Multiple bandwidth imagery
The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.
Regional imagery
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)
Weather Nerds
Analysis products
Best track data
Surface analysis products
Japan Meteorological Agency
Wind analysis and storm intensity estimation products
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History
- NESDIS: Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis
- CIMSS: Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
- CIMSS: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus (SATCON)
- CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface temperature analysis products
- NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
- Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model products
Disturbance-specific model guidance
Storm-centered guidance
Track guidance
Track and intensity guidance
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
01:09 UTC
Category 5 Hurricane Kristy, 24 October 2024
23:32 UTC
Mike’s Weather Page
For a long time, I’ve followed Mike’s Weather Page for his hurricane opinions. But, lately he’s seems to get caught up in opinions about him and negative comments. Things that probably shouldn’t matter when following the weather. What’s your guys thoughts on Mike?
13:30 UTC
Kristy (12E — Eastern Pacific)
Latest Observation
Last updated: Sunday, 27 October — 2:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (HST; 00:00 UTC)
| ATCF | 2:00 PM HST (00:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 22.3°N 130.2°W | |
| Relative location: | 2,596 km (1,613 mi) E of Hilo, Hawaii | |
| Forward motion: | ▲ | SW (245°) at 9 km/h (5 knots) |
| Maximum winds: | 65 km/h (35 knots) | |
| Minimum pressure: | ▲ | 1007 millibars (29.74 inches) |
Outlook discussion
Last updated: Sunday, 27 October — 5:00 AM HST (15:00 UTC)
Discussion by: John Cangialosi — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit
Very strong southwesterly vertical wind shear, dry air entrainment, and cool waters have taken a toll on Kristy. The storm has lacked organized deep convection since about 03Z, and it has generally consisted of a low-level cloud swirl since that time. Therefore, Kristy no longer meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and this is the last advisory on this system. The initial wind speed is lowered to 40 kt, assuming some decrease in winds from the ASCAT pass overnight that showed maximum winds close to 50 kt.
The gale-force low is still moving north-northwestward at about 7 kt, but it is expected to turn to the west and west-southwest later today and Monday when it moves in the low-level flow. The post-tropical cyclone is also expected to continue to weaken and dissipate completely on Monday.
This is the last NHC advisory on Kristy. For more details on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. This information can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Advisories
Graphics
Productos en español
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)
Radar imagery
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)
NOTE: There are no active radars in the area of Mexico where this system is active.
Satellite imagery
Storm-specific imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
- Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
- CIMSS: Multiple bands
- RAMMB: Multiple bands
- Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Regional imagery
NOAA GOES Image Viewer
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)
Tropical Tidbits
Weather Nerds
Analysis graphics and data
Wind analyses
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History
- NESDIS: Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis
- CIMSS: Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
- CIMSS: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus (SATCON)
- CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface Temperatures
- NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
- Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model guidance
Storm-specific guidance
- Tropical Tidbits
- State University of New York at Albany
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
- Weather Nerds
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
- Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
- Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
02:39 UTC
Dana (03B — Bay of Bengal)
Latest Observation
Last updated: Friday, 25 October — 11:30 PM India Standard Time (IST; 18:00 UTC)
| ATCF | 11:30 PM IST (18:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 21.2°N 86.2°E | |
| Relative location: | 1,100 km (684 mi) NNE of Chennai, Tamil Nadu (India) | |
| Forward motion: | W (270°) at 4 km/h (2 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | ▼ | 55 km/h (30 knots) |
| Intensity (SSHWS): | ▼ | Remnant Low |
| Intensity (IMD): | ▼ | Remnant Low |
| Minimum pressure: | ▲ | 1000 millibars (29.53 inches) |
Official forecast
India Meteorological Department
NOTE: The IMD has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
NOTE: The JTWC has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.
Official information
India Meteorological Department
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
Radar imagery
India Meteorological Department
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
Single bandwidth imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / shortwave infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared (Dvorak enhancement)
- Tropical Tidbits: Water vapor
Multiple bandwidth imagery
The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.
Regional imagery
- CIMSS: Enhanced Infrared
- CIMSS: Water vapor
- CIMSS: Visible
Analysis products
Best track data
Surface analysis products
India Meteorological Department
Wind analysis and storm intensity estimation products
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History
- NESDIS: Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis
- CIMSS: Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
- CIMSS: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus (SATCON)
- CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface temperature analysis products
- NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
- Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model products
Disturbance-specific model guidance
Storm-centered guidance
Track guidance
Track and intensity guidance
Regional single-model guidance
- Tropical Tidbits: GFS
- Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF
- Tropical Tidbits: CMC
- Tropical Tidbits: ICON
- India Meteorological Department Several models
Regional ensemble model guidance
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
14:42 UTC
Trami (22W — Philippine Sea)
Latest observation
Last updated: Friday, 25 October — 2:00 AM Philippine Standard Time (PhST; 18:00 UTC)
| JTWC Warning #18 | 2:00 AM PhST (18:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 16.7°N 119.0°E | |
| Relative location: | 173 km (107 mi) W of Baguio, Philippines | |
| 316 km (196 mi) NW of Manila, Philippines | ||
| 1,154 km (717 mi) E of Da Nang, Vietnam | ||
| Forward motion: | ▲ | WSW (265°) at 17 km/h (9 knots) |
| Maximum winds: | ▲ | 85 km/h (45 knots) |
| Intensity (SSHWS): | Tropical Storm | |
| Intensity (JMA): | Severe Tropical Storm [see note] | |
| Minimum pressure: | ▼ | 986 millibars (29.12 inches) |
^NOTE ^- ^Based ^on ^the ^Japan ^Meteorological ^Agency's ^ten-minute ^maximum ^sustained ^wind ^estimate ^of ^95 ^kilometers ^per ^hour ^(50 ^knots).
Official forecasts
NOTE: Both the JMA and the JTWC are forecasting that Trami will remain over water for the next five days.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Last updated: Friday, 25 October — 5:00 AM PhST (21:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | UTC | PhST | JMA | knots | km/h | °N | °E | ||
| 00 | 24 Oct | 21:00 | 5AM Fri | Severe Tropical Storm | 50 | 95 | 17.1 | 119.4 | |
| 12 | 25 Oct | 09:00 | 5PM Fri | Severe Tropical Storm | ▲ | 55 | 100 | 17.5 | 116.8 |
| 24 | 25 Oct | 21:00 | 5AM Sat | Severe Tropical Storm | ▲ | 60 | 110 | 17.6 | 114.4 |
| 45 | 26 Oct | 18:00 | 2AM Sun | Severe Tropical Storm | ▼ | 55 | 100 | 17.3 | 110.7 |
| 69 | 27 Oct | 18:00 | 2AM Mon | Severe Tropical Storm | ▼ | 50 | 95 | 16.4 | 109.4 |
| 93 | 28 Oct | 18:00 | 2AM Tue | Tropical Storm | ▼ | 45 | 85 | 16.3 | 109.9 |
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Last updated: Friday, 25 October — 5:00 AM PhST (21:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | UTC | PhST | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °E | ||
| 00 | 24 Oct | 18:00 | 2AM Fri | Tropical Storm | 45 | 85 | 16.7 | 119.0 | |
| 12 | 24 Oct | 06:00 | 2PM Fri | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 50 | 95 | 16.9 | 117.3 |
| 24 | 25 Oct | 18:00 | 2AM Sat | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 55 | 100 | 17.2 | 115.2 |
| 36 | 25 Oct | 06:00 | 2PM Sat | Tropical Storm | 55 | 100 | 17.1 | 113.1 | |
| 48 | 26 Oct | 18:00 | 2AM Sun | Tropical Storm | ▼ | 50 | 95 | 17.0 | 110.9 |
| 72 | 27 Oct | 18:00 | 2AM Mon | Tropical Storm | ▼ | 40 | 75 | 16.0 | 109.5 |
| 96 | 28 Oct | 18:00 | 2AM Tue | Tropical Storm | ▼ | 35 | 65 | 15.5 | 110.5 |
| 120 | 29 Oct | 18:00 | 2AM Wed | Tropical Storm | 35 | 65 | 15.5 | 112.9 |
^NOTES:
^1 ^- ^Last ^point ^prior ^to ^landfall ^over ^northeastern ^Luzon
^2 ^- ^Inland
^3 ^- ^Over ^the ^South ^China ^Sea
Official information
Japan Meteorological Agency
- Homepage (English)
- Tropical cyclone page (English)
- Forecast advisory (English)
- Forecast discussion (English)
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration
Radar imagery
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
Single bandwidth imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / shortwave infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared (Dvorak enhancement)
- Tropical Tidbits: Water vapor
Multiple bandwidth imagery
The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.
Regional imagery
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)
Weather Nerds
Analysis products
Best track data
Surface analysis products
Japan Meteorological Agency
Wind analysis and storm intensity estimation products
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History
- NESDIS: Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis
- CIMSS: Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
- CIMSS: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus (SATCON)
- CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface temperature analysis products
- NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
- Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model products
Disturbance-specific model guidance
Storm-centered guidance
Track guidance
Track and intensity guidance
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
00:47 UTC
Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 21-27 October 2024
Current discussions
Last updated: Sunday, 28 October — 03:00 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC)
Northern Atlantic
Eastern Pacific
Western Pacific
Areas of interest without current discussions
As of Friday morning, there should be a discussion for every active cyclone and disturbance.
Satellite imagery
Regional imagery
Infrared imagery
- Western Pacific
- Eastern Pacific
- Northern Atlantic
- Northern Indian (Arabian Sea)
- Northern Indian (Bay of Bengal)
- Southwestern Indian
- Southeastern Indian
Model guidance
Regional guidance (GFS)
Information sources
Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)
Other sources
Global outlooks
Climate Prediction Center
06:48 UTC
Why is Nadine rather large compared to Oscar? What makes a tropical system large or small?
18:25 UTC
Cape Verde storms
Is Oscar the first named Cape Verde storm? I don't recall any this year.
17:35 UTC
Oscar (16L — Southwestern North Atlantic)
Latest observation
Last updated: Tuesday, 22 October — 2:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 18:00 UTC)
| NHC Advisory #15 | 2:00 PM EDT (18:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 23.0°N 74.0°W | |
| Relative location: | 34 km (21 mi) NE of Crooked Island (Bahamas) | |
| Forward motion: | NE (40°) at 19 km/h (10 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | 55 km/h (30 knots) | |
| Intensity: | ▼ | Dissipated |
| Minimum pressure: | 1007 millibars (29.74 inches) |
Official forecast
Last updated: Tuesday, 22 October — 11:00 AM EDT (15:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | UTC | EDT | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °W | ||
| 00 | 22 Oct | 15:00 | 11AM Tue | Dissipated | 30 | 55 | 23.0 | 74.0 |
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Text products
Productos de texto (en español)
Graphical products
- Forecast graphic
- Experimental new forecast graphic (with inland advisories)
- Interactive forecast graphic
- Wind speed probabilities
- Arrival time of winds
Bahamas Department of Meteorology
Instituto de Meteorología (Cuba)
Aircraft reconnaissance
National Hurricane Center
Radar imagery
Bahamas Department of Meteorology
Instituto de Meteorología (Cuba)
NOTE: The closest radar sites to Hurricane Oscar—Holguín and Grand Piedra—are currently inoperable.
Fleet Weather Center — Norfolk, VA (United States)
Satellite imagery
Storm-specific imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
- Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
- CIMSS: Multiple bands
- RAMMB: Multiple bands
- Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Regional imagery
NOAA GOES Image Viewer
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)
Tropical Tidbits
Weather Nerds
Analysis graphics and data
Wind analyses
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History
- NESDIS: Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis
- CIMSS: Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
- CIMSS: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus (SATCON)
- CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface Temperatures
- NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
- Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model guidance
Storm-specific guidance
- Tropical Tidbits
- State University of New York at Albany
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
- Weather Nerds
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
17:32 UTC
95W (Invest — Philippine Sea)
Latest Observation
Last updated: Saturday, 19 October — 2:00 PM Philippine Standard Time (PhST; 06:00 UTC)
| ATCF | 2:00 PM PhST (06:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 12.9°N 141.9°E | |
| Relative location: | 325 km (202 mi) WSW of Dededo, Guam (United States) | |
| Forward motion: | W (270°) at 13 km/h (7 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | 30 km/h (15 knots) | |
| Minimum pressure: | 1009 millibars (29.80 inches) | |
| 2-day potential: (through 2PM Mon) | low (30 percent) | |
| 7-day potential: (through 2PM Fri) | medium (40 percent) |
Outlook discussion
Last updated: Saturday, 19 October — 2:00 PM PhST (06:00 UTC)
Discussion by: Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts a broad area of flaring convection with a weakly defined low level circulation center (LLCC). Environmental analysis reveals that Invest 95W is in a favorable environment for further development with, good radial outflow aloft, very warm sea surface temperatures (30 to 31°C), and low vertical wind shear (10 to 15 knots). Global models are in good agreement that Invest 95W will generally track in a slow and erratic direction northeastward over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1009 millibars. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
Official information
Japan Meteorological Agency
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration
Radar imagery
Not available
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Storm-specific imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
- Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
- CIMSS: Multiple bands
- RAMMB: Multiple bands
- Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Regional imagery
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)
Weather Nerds
Analysis graphics and data
Wind analyses
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface Temperatures
- NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
- Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model guidance
Storm-specific guidance
- Tropical Tidbits
- State University of New York at Albany
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
- Weather Nerds
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
10:42 UTC
94L (Invest — Southwestern North Atlantic)
Latest Observation
Last updated: Saturday, 19 October — 2:00 AM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 06:00 UTC)
| ATCF | 2:00 AM AST (06:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 20.6°N 68.3°W | |
| Relative location: | 188 km (117 mi) NE of Santa Bárbara de Samaná, Samaná Province (Dominican Republic) | |
| 310 km (193 mi) ESE of Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands | ||
| Forward motion: | ▼ | WNW (295°) at 23 km/h (12 knots) |
| Maximum winds: | 55 km/h (30 knots) | |
| Minimum pressure: | 1011 millibars (29.85 inches) | |
| 2-day potential: (through 2AM Mon) | low (30 percent) | |
| 7-day potential: (through 2AM Fri) | low (30 percent) |
Outlook discussion
Last updated: Saturday, 19 October — 2:00 AM AST (06:00 UTC)
Discussion by Robbie Berg (NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit)
Although showers and thunderstorms located a couple of hundred miles north of the northern coast of the Dominican Republic are still showing some signs of organization, recent satellite-derived wind data suggest that the system remains a surface trough without a closed circulation. Some gradual development of this system is possible this weekend while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph, passing near Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and extreme eastern Cuba. By early next week, further development is not expected due to strong upper-level winds.
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Text products
Graphical products
Surface analyses
Outlook graphics
Last updated: Saturday, 19 October — 04:42 AM AST (08:42 UTC)
National Weather Service (United States)
Weather Forecast Offices
Forecast discussions
Radar imagery
National Weather Service
- TSJU (San Juan, PR)
College of DuPage
- KBYX (San Juan, PR)
Satellite imagery
Storm-specific imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
- Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
- CIMSS: Multiple bands
- RAMMB: Multiple bands
- Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Regional imagery
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)
Tropical Tidbits
Analysis graphics and data
Wind analyses
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface Temperatures
- NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
- Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model guidance
Storm-specific guidance
- Tropical Tidbits
- State University of New York at Albany
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
- Weather Nerds
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
05:48 UTC
Nadine (15L — Northwestern Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Honduras)
Latest observation
Last updated: Sunday, 20 October — 10:00 AM Central Daylight Time (CDT; 15:00 UTC)
| NHC Advisory #8 | 10:00 AM CDT (15:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 16.5°N 93.0°W | |
| Relative location: | 23 km (15 mi) S of Chiapas, Chiapas (Mexico) | |
| 30 km (19 mi) SSE of Tuxtla Gutiérrez, Chiapas (Mexico) | ||
| Forward motion: | WSW (250°) at 22 km/h (12 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | 45 km/h (25 knots) | |
| Intensity: | ▼ | Dissipated |
| Minimum pressure: | 1007 millibars (29.74 inches) |
Official forecast
Last updated: Sunday, 20 October — 7:00 AM CDT (12:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | UTC | CDT | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °W | ||
| 00 | 20 Oct | 12:00 | 7AM Sun | Dissipated | 25 | 45 | 16.5 | 93.0 | |
| 12 | 21 Oct | 00:00 | 7PM Sun | Dissipated |
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Text products
Productos de texto (en español)
Graphical products
- Forecast graphic
- Experimental new forecast graphic (with inland advisories)
- Interactive forecast graphic
- Wind speed probabilities
- Arrival time of winds
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)
Aircraft reconnaissance
National Hurricane Center
Radar imagery
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)
Satellite imagery
Storm-specific imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
- Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
- CIMSS: Multiple bands
- RAMMB: Multiple bands
- Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Regional imagery
NOAA GOES Image Viewer
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)
Tropical Tidbits
Weather Nerds
Analysis graphics and data
Wind analyses
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History
- NESDIS: Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis
- CIMSS: Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
- CIMSS: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus (SATCON)
- CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface Temperatures
- NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
- Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model guidance
Storm-specific guidance
- Tropical Tidbits
- State University of New York at Albany
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
- Weather Nerds
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
05:41 UTC