/r/TropicalWeather
/r/TropicalWeather
Please refer to the list below for individual discussions on selected cyclones and disturbances:
Disturbance 1: Southeastern Gulf of Mexico
Disturbance 2: Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean (Invest 91L)
Last updated: Monday, 25 September 2023 — 04:00 UTC
Discussion by: /u/giantspeck
Philippe—the storm, not the forecaster—has not undergone any significant changes in strength or structure over the past several hours as it continues west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions will likely be just favorable enough for the storm to maintain strength within the next couple of days, as stronger mid-level shear prevents further convective development. Some strengthening is possible later this week as Philippe turns northwestward away from this shear. However, the intensity forecast remains highly uncertain through the end of the week.
Last updated: Monday, 25 September 2023 — 04:00 UTC
Discussion by: Dr. Philippe Papin — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in association with a surface trough of low pressure and an upper-level trough. Further development, if any, is expected to be slow to occur over the next few days while the system moves slowly westward. By the middle of the week, upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for additional development.
Discussion by Dr. Philippe Papin — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is now likely to form around mid-week as the system moves west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
Discussion by: John Cangialosi — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit
Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Gradual development of the disturbance is likely, and a tropical depression is expected to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves generally westward across the central and western parts of the eastern Pacific basin.
Discussion by: /u/giantspeck
A broad and elongated area of low pressure situated a few hundred kilometers southeast of Qui Nhon, Vietnam continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions remain favorable enough that the disturbance could briefly become a tropical depression or storm over the next couple of days as it moves northwestward toward the coast. The disturbance, whether it undergoes further development or not, is likely to make landfall by Wednesday and bring heavy rainfall to the region through the end of the week.
Discussion by: /u/giantspeck
A broad area of low pressure situated several hundred kilometers northwest of Guam is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although strong shear has displaced the bulk of the disturbance's convection toward the east and has exposed its low-level center, environmental conditions could become more favorable later this week. The disturbance is expected to drift westward over the next few days and a short-lived tropical depression could develop by midweek.
Updated: Monday, 25 September – 1:00 PM Central Daylight Time (18:00 UTC)
Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
Discussion by: John Cangialosi (NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit) and Stephen Konarik (NHC Tropical Analysis & Forecast Branch)
A trough of low pressure is producing limited shower activity over portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance is moving westward into unfavorable environmental conditions, and development is not expected.
Development potential | 1:00 PM CDT (18:00 UTC) | |
---|---|---|
Next two days: | ▼ | low (near 0 percent) |
Next seven days: | ▼ | low (near 0 percent) |
Please note that the outlook graphic mirrors are only manually rehosted whenever the post is updated. They will not update dynamically and will occasionally be outdated.
Radar imagery is currently unavailable for this system.
Monday, 25 September — 2:00 PM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 18:00 UTC)
ATCF | 2:00 PM AST (18:00 UTC) | |
---|---|---|
Current location: | 10.7°N 32.6°W | |
Relative location: | 3,239 km (2,013 mi) E of Codrington, Barbuda (Antigua and Barbuda) | |
Forward motion: | ▲ | W (285°) at 36 km/h (19 knots) |
Maximum winds: | 35 km/h (20 knots) | |
Minimum pressure: | 1010 millibars (29.83 inches) | |
Potential (2-day): | low (30 percent) | |
Potential (5-day): | ▲ | high (80 percent) |
Updated: Monday, 25 September – 8:00 PM Atlantic Standard Time (00:00 UTC)
Eastern Tropical Atlantic
Discussion by: Dr. Philippe Papin and Eric Blake — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in 2-3 days as the system moves west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
CIMSS: Multiple bands
RAMMB: Multiple bands
Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Tropical Tidbits: Eastern Atlantic
Weathernerds: Eastern Atlantic
NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Last updated: Sunday, 24 September — 8:00 PM Pacific Daylight Time (PDT; 03:00 UTC)
NHC Advisory #6 | 8:00 PM PDT (03:00 UTC) | |
---|---|---|
Current location: | 15.0°N 126.5°W | |
Relative location: | 3,074 km (1,910 mi) E of Hilo, Hawaii | |
Forward motion: | W (270°) at 12 knots (22 km/h) | |
Maximum winds: | ▼ | 45 km/h (25 knots) |
Intensity (SSHWS): | ▼ | Remnant Low |
Minimum pressure: | ▲ | 1008 millibars (29.77 inches) |
Last updated: Sunday, 24 September — 8:00 PM Pacific Daylight Time (PDT; 03:00 UTC)
NOTE: The National Hurricane Center has discontinued issuing advisories for this system. There will be no further updates.
Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
- | UTC | PDT | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °W | ||
00 | 25 Sep | 00:00 | 5PM Sun | Remnant Low | 25 | 45 | 15.0 | 126.5 | |
12 | 25 Sep | 12:00 | 5AM Mon | Remnant Low | 25 | 45 | 14.9 | 128.4 | |
24 | 26 Sep | 00:00 | 5PM Mon | Remnant Low | 25 | 45 | 14.6 | 131.1 | |
36 | 26 Sep | 12:00 | 5AM Tue | Remnant Low | 25 | 45 | 13.9 | 134.0 | |
48 | 27 Sep | 00:00 | 5PM Tue | Dissipated | |||||
# Official information | |||||||||
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## National Hurricane Center |
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
CIMSS: Multiple bands
RAMMB: Multiple bands
Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Tropical Tidbits: Eastern Pacific
CIMSS: Enhanced infrared (GOES West)
CIMSS: Enhanced Water vapor (GOES West)
CIMSS: Visible (GOES East)
Weathernerds: Eastern Pacific
NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins
NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History
CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History
EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Last updated: Tuesday, 26 September — 5:00 AM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 09:00 UTC)
NHC Advisory #12 | 5:00 AM AST (09:00 UTC) | |
---|---|---|
Current location: | 17.7°N 49.0°W | |
Relative location: | 1,358 km (844 mi) E of Codrington, Barbuda (Antigua and Barbuda) | |
Forward motion: | WNW (285°) at 11 knots (20 km/h) | |
Maximum winds: | 85 km/h (45 knots) | |
Intensity (SSHWS): | Tropical Storm | |
Minimum pressure: | 1001 millibars (29.56 inches) |
Last updated: Tuesday, 26 September — 5:00 AM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 09:00 UTC)
Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
- | UTC | AST | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °W | ||
00 | 26 Sep | 06:00 | 2AM Tue | Tropical Storm | 45 | 85 | 17.7 | 49.0 | |
12 | 26 Sep | 18:00 | 2PM Tue | Tropical Storm | 45 | 85 | 18.2 | 50.4 | |
24 | 27 Sep | 06:00 | 2AM Wed | Tropical Storm | 45 | 85 | 19.1 | 52.1 | |
36 | 27 Sep | 18:00 | 2PM Wed | Tropical Storm | 45 | 85 | 20.1 | 53.9 | |
48 | 28 Sep | 06:00 | 2AM Thu | Tropical Storm | ▼ | 40 | 75 | 21.0 | 55.4 |
60 | 28 Sep | 18:00 | 2PM Thu | Tropical Storm | 40 | 75 | 21.6 | 56.9 | |
72 | 29 Sep | 06:00 | 2AM Fri | Tropical Storm | ▼ | 35 | 65 | 21.9 | 58.2 |
96 | 30 Sep | 06:00 | 2AM Sat | Tropical Depression | ▼ | 30 | 55 | 21.8 | 60.9 |
120 | 01 Oct | 06:00 | 2AM Sun | Remnant Low | ▼ | 25 | 45 | 21.8 | 63.6 |
Radar imagery is currently unavailable for this system.
Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
CIMSS: Multiple bands
RAMMB: Multiple bands
Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Tropical Tidbits: Western Atlantic
CIMSS: Enhanced infrared
CIMSS: Enhanced Water vapor
CIMSS: Visible
Weathernerds: Western Atlantic
NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins
NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History
CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History
EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Weathernerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weathernerds: ECENS (120 hours)
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Last updated: Sunday, 24 September — 5:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 09:00 UTC)
NHC Advisory #12 | 5:00 AM EDT (09:00 UTC) | |
---|---|---|
Current location: | 37.7°N 77.3°W | |
Relative location: | 85 mi (136 km) S of Washington, DC | |
Forward motion: | ▲ | NNE (20°) at 10 knots (12 mph) |
Maximum winds: | ▼ | 25 mph (20 knots) |
Intensity (SSHWS): | Remnant Low | |
Minimum pressure: | ▲ | 1007 millibars (29.74 inches) |
Last updated: Sunday, 24 September — 5:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 09:00 UTC)
Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
- | UTC | EDT | Saffir-Simpson | knots | mph | °N | °W | ||
00 | 24 Sep | 06:00 | 2AM Sun | Remnant Low | 20 | 25 | 37.7 | 77.3 | |
12 | 24 Sep | 18:00 | 2PM Sun | Remnant Low | 20 | 25 | 39.2 | 76.5 | |
24 | 25 Sep | 06:00 | 2AM Mon | Remnant Low | ▲ | 25 | 30 | 39.3 | 74.9 |
36 | 25 Sep | 18:00 | 2PM Mon | Remnant Low | 25 | 30 | 38.9 | 72.9 | |
48 | 26 Sep | 06:00 | 2AM Tue | Dissipated |
Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
CIMSS: Multiple bands
RAMMB: Multiple bands
Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Tropical Tidbits: Western Atlantic
CIMSS: Enhanced infrared
CIMSS: Enhanced Water vapor
CIMSS: Visible
Weathernerds: Western Atlantic
NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins
NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History
CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History
EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Weathernerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weathernerds: ECENS (120 hours)
Please refer to the list below for individual discussions on selected cyclones and disturbances:
Last updated: Saturday, 22 September 2023 — 08:00 UTC
Discussion by: /u/giantspeck
Ophelia is maintaining intensity just below hurricane strength as it moves slowly north-northwestward toward the North Carolina coast. The storm has very little time left over warm waters and is unlikely to undergo further development before making landfall later this morning. Strong winds, heavy rainfall, and life-threatening storm surge are likely to spread to the mid-Atlantic states over the weekend as Ophelia gradually turns northward.
Last updated: Thursday, 21 September 2023 — 20:00 UTC
Discussion by: Larry Kelly — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. A tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is then expected to turn west-northwestward early next week as it moves over the central tropical Atlantic.
Discussion by: John Cangialosi — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit
Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Gradual development of the disturbance is likely, and a tropical depression is expected to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves generally westward across the central and western parts of the eastern Pacific basin.
Discussion by: Sam Houston — CPHC Forecaster
A weak area of low pressure located more than 700 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii continues to have sporadic disorganized thunderstorms displaced to the east. Strong upper-level winds will likely continue to inhibit any significant development of this system as it moves westward at around 10 mph.
Discussion by: /u/giantspeck
A broad area of low pressure situated over the South China Sea continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions should remain favorable through the weekend to allow the disturbance to gradually consolidate as it moves westward along the base of a subtropical ridge. There is an increasing chance that this system could become a tropical depression by early next week as it approaches the coast of Vietnam.
Do hurricanes move north quicker based on strength? For example if a hurricane 1 had the same environment around it as a hurricane 4, would the 4 move north faster?
Last updated: Friday, 22 September — 8:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (PDT; 15:00 UTC)
NHC Advisory #13 | 8:00 AM PDT (15:00 UTC) | |
---|---|---|
Current location: | 20.5°N 125.8°W | |
Relative location: | 1,663 km (1,033 mi) WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur (Mexico) | |
Forward motion: | N (5°) at 10 knots (19 km/h) | |
Maximum winds: | 55 km/h (30 knots) | |
Intensity (SSHWS): | ▼ | Remnant Low |
Minimum pressure: | 1005 millibars (29.68 inches) |
Last updated: Friday, 22 September — 8:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (PDT; 15:00 UTC)
NOTE: The National Hurricane Center has issued its final advisory for Kenneth. There will be no further updates to the forecast information depicted below.
Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
- | UTC | PDT | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °W | ||
00 | 22 Sep | 12:00 | 5AM Fri | Remnant Low | 30 | 55 | 20.5 | 125.8 | |
12 | 23 Sep | 00:00 | 5PM Fri | Remnant Low | ▼ | 25 | 45 | 21.8 | 125.7 |
24 | 23 Sep | 12:00 | 5AM Sat | Remnant Low | ▼ | 20 | 35 | 22.8 | 126.1 |
36 | 24 Sep | 00:00 | 5PM Sat | Dissipated |
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
CIMSS: Multiple bands
RAMMB: Multiple bands
Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Tropical Tidbits: Eastern Pacific
CIMSS: Enhanced infrared (GOES West)
CIMSS: Enhanced Water vapor (GOES West)
CIMSS: Visible (GOES East)
Weathernerds: Eastern Pacific
NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins
NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History
CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History
EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Last updated: Friday, 22 September — 9:00 AM Greenwich Mean Time (GMT; 09:00 UTC)
NHC Advisory #28 | 9:00 AM GMT (09:00 UTC) | |
---|---|---|
Current location: | 46.3°N 32.6°W | |
Relative location: | 3,146 km (1,955 mi) ENE of Ilha das Flores, Azores (Portugal) | |
Forward motion: | NE (55°) at 32 knots (59 km/h) | |
Maximum winds: | ▼ | 110 km/h (60 knots) |
Intensity (SSHWS): | ▼ | Post-tropical Cyclone |
Minimum pressure: | ▲ | 976 millibars (28.82 inches) |
Last updated: Friday, 22 September — 9:00 AM Greenwich Mean Time (GMT; 09:00 UTC)
NOTE: This is the final forecast from the National Hurricane Center. There will be no further updates for this system.
Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
- | UTC | GMT | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °W | ||
00 | 22 Sep | 06:00 | 6AM Fri | Post-tropical Cyclone | 60 | 110 | 46.3 | 32.6 | |
12 | 22 Sep | 18:00 | 6PM Fri | Extratropical Cyclone | ▼ | 50 | 95 | 48.8 | 27.2 |
24 | 23 Sep | 06:00 | 6AM Sat | Extratropical Cyclone | 50 | 95 | 53.0 | 23.0 | |
36 | 23 Sep | 18:00 | 6PM Sat | Extratropical Cyclone | 50 | 95 | 56.4 | 23.3 | |
48 | 24 Sep | 06:00 | 6AM Sun | Dissipated |
Radar imagery is not yet available for this system.
Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
CIMSS: Multiple bands
RAMMB: Multiple bands
Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Tropical Tidbits: Western Atlantic
CIMSS: Enhanced infrared
CIMSS: Enhanced Water vapor
CIMSS: Visible
Weathernerds: Western Atlantic
NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins
NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History
CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History
EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Weathernerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weathernerds: ECENS (120 hours)
Saturday, 16 September — 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (HST; 15:00 UTC)
NHC Advisory #4 | 5:00 AM HST (15:00 UTC) | |
---|---|---|
Current location: | 14.5°N 138.6°W | |
Relative location: | 1,845 km (1,146 mi) ESE of Hilo, Hawaii | |
Forward motion: | W (265°) at 10 knots (12 mph) | |
Maximum winds: | 35 mph (30 knots) | |
Intensity (SSHWS): | Tropical Depression | |
Minimum pressure: | 1006 millibars (29.71 inches) |
Saturday, 16 September — 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (HST; 15:00 UTC)
Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
- | UTC | HST | Saffir-Simpson | knots | mph | °N | °W | ||
00 | 16 Sep | 12:00 | 2AM Sat | Tropical Depression | 30 | 35 | 14.5 | 138.6 | |
12 | 17 Sep | 00:00 | 2PM Sat | Tropical Depression | 30 | 35 | 14.2 | 139.9 | |
24 | 17 Sep | 12:00 | 2AM Sun | Remnant Low | ▼ | 25 | 30 | 13.8 | 141.5 |
36 | 18 Sep | 00:00 | 2PM Sun | Remnant Low | ▼ | 20 | 25 | 13.3 | 143.5 |
48 | 18 Sep | 12:00 | 2AM Mon | Dissipated |
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
CIMSS: Multiple bands
RAMMB: Multiple bands
Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Tropical Tidbits: Eastern Pacific
CIMSS: Enhanced infrared (GOES West)
CIMSS: Enhanced Water vapor (GOES West)
CIMSS: Visible (GOES East)
Weathernerds: Eastern Pacific
NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins
NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History
CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History
EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
For some of the past few named storms this season, it seems to be a recurring theme that storms are getting pulled up north, rather than making US landfall, due to a break in high pressure caused by a previous storm. If the Atlantic keeps spitting out tropical systems, it seems plausible that this could happen over and over again. Whereas, if the tropics were to get a lot more quiet, I feel like any new storm that forms would have a lower probability of getting pulled north since there wouldn't be the opportunity for a previous storm to create that break in the high pressure. Is this line of thinking right in any way?