/r/TropicalWeather
The intent of this subreddit is to provide a centralized location to discuss tropical cyclone, including their climatology, their development, their movement, and their impacts to life, property, and the environment. The moderator staff strives to minimize excessive speculation and fearmongering and to distribute and emphasize lifesaving information from official sources.
Current discussions: Global Outlook Shanshan Gilma Invest 91E Invest 92E
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11W — Shanshan
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Hone (01C — Central Pacific)
Latest observation
Last updated: Friday, 23 August — 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (HST; 15:00 UTC)
| NHC Advisory #5 | 5:00 AM HST (15:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 16.4°N 146.3°W | |
| Relative location: | 621 mi (999 km) ESE of Hilo, Hawaii (United States) | |
| Forward motion: | W (280°) at 16 knots (14 mph) | |
| Maximum winds: | 45 mph (40 knots) | |
| Intensity: | Tropical Storm | |
| Minimum pressure: | ▼ | 1002 millibars (29.59 inches) |
Official forecast
Last updated: Friday, 23 August — 2:00 AM HST (12:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | UTC | HST | Saffir-Simpson | knots | mph | °N | °W | ||
| 00 | 23 Aug | 12:00 | 2AM Fri | Tropical Storm | 40 | 45 | 16.4 | 146.3 | |
| 12 | 24 Aug | 00:00 | 2PM Fri | Tropical Storm | 40 | 45 | 16.6 | 148.3 | |
| 24 | 24 Aug | 12:00 | 2AM Sat | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 45 | 50 | 17.0 | 151.2 |
| 36 | 25 Aug | 00:00 | 2PM Sat | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 50 | 60 | 17.4 | 153.8 |
| 48 | 25 Aug | 12:00 | 2AM Sun | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 55 | 65 | 17.8 | 156.1 |
| 60 | 26 Aug | 00:00 | 2PM Sun | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 60 | 70 | 18.3 | 158.1 |
| 72 | 26 Aug | 12:00 | 2AM Mon | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▲ | 65 | 75 | 18.9 | 160.0 |
| 96 | 27 Aug | 12:00 | 2AM Tue | Tropical Storm | ▼ | 55 | 65 | 20.0 | 163.5 |
| 120 | 28 Aug | 12:00 | 2AM Wed | Tropical Storm | ▼ | 40 | 45 | 20.1 | 166.5 |
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Advisories
Graphics
Productos en español
Los productos actualmente no están disponibles en español.
Radar imagery
Unavailable
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
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Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
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Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
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20:40 UTC
92E (Invest — Eastern Pacific)
Latest Observation
Last updated: Wednesday, 21 August — 11:00 PM Pacific Daylight Time (PDT; 06:00 UTC)
| ATCF | 11:00 PM PDT (06:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 14.5°N 111.1°W | |
| Relative location: | 882 km (548 mi) SW of Manzanillo, Colima (Mexico) | |
| Forward motion: | W (275°) at 15 km/h (8 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | ▲ | 45 km/h (25 knots) |
| Minimum pressure: | ▼ | 1010 millibars (29.83 inches) |
| 2-day potential: (through 11PM Fri) | ▲ | medium (40 percent) |
| 7-day potential: (through 11PM Tue) | ▲ | high (80 percent) |
Outlook discussion
Last updated: Wednesday, 21 August — 11:00 PM Pacific Daylight Time (PDT; 06:00 UTC)
Discussion by: Brad Reinhart — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to the south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for development over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the central portion of the East Pacific basin.
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Central Pacific Hurricane Center
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Surface analysis graphic (2:00 PM HST Wednesday) (Most recent)
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Surface analysis graphic (8:00 AM MST Wednesday)
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Hilo, Hawaii
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- Florida State University: Experimental tropical cyclone genesis guidance
08:47 UTC
Shanshan (11W — Western Pacific)
Latest observation
Last updated: Thursday, 22 August — 3:00 PM Japan Standard Time (JST; 06:00 UTC)
| JTWC Warning #4 | 3:00 PM JST (06:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 17.0°N 141.1°E | |
| Relative location: | 536 km (333 mi) WNW of San Vicente, Saipan (Northern Marianas Islands) | |
| 862 km (536 mi) S of Iwo To (Japan) | ||
| 1,123 km (699 mi) S of Ogasawara, Tokyo Prefecture (Japan) | ||
| Forward motion: | ▼ | W (270°) at 4 km/h (2 knots) |
| Maximum winds: | ▲ | 75 km/h (40 knots) |
| Intensity (SSHWS): | ▲ | Tropical Storm |
| Intensity (JMA): | Tropical Storm [see note] | |
| Minimum pressure: | ▼ | 999 millibars (29.5 inches) |
^NOTE ^- ^Based ^on ^the ^Japan ^Meteorological ^Agency's ^ten-minute ^maximum ^sustained ^wind ^estimate ^of ^75 ^kilometers ^per ^hour ^(40 ^knots).
Official forecasts
Japan Meteorological Agency
Last updated: Thursday, 22 August — 3:00 PM JST (06:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | UTC | JST | JMA | knots | km/h | °N | °E | ||
| 00 | 22 Aug | 06:00 | 3PM Thu | Tropical Storm | 40 | 75 | 16.6 | 141.4 | |
| 24 | 23 Aug | 06:00 | 3PM Fri | Severe Tropical Storm | ▲ | 55 | 100 | 18.2 | 140.7 |
| 48 | 24 Aug | 06:00 | 3PM Sat | Severe Tropical Storm | ▲ | 60 | 110 | 21.4 | 140.0 |
| 72 | 25 Aug | 06:00 | 3PM Sun | Severe Tropical Storm | ▲ | 65 | 120 | 25.5 | 138.4 |
| 96 | 26 Aug | 06:00 | 3PM Mon | Typhoon | ▲ | 75 | 140 | 29.2 | 136.1 |
| 120 | 27 Aug | 06:00 | 3PM Tue | Typhoon | 75 | 140 | 33.8 | 136.2 |
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Last updated: Thursday, 22 August — 6:00 PM JST (09:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | UTC | JST | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °E | ||
| 00 | 22 Aug | 06:00 | 3PM Thu | Tropical Storm | 40 | 75 | 17.0 | 141.1 | |
| 12 | 22 Aug | 18:00 | 3AM Fri | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 50 | 95 | 17.4 | 140.6 |
| 24 | 23 Aug | 06:00 | 3PM Fri | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 60 | 110 | 18.1 | 140.3 |
| 36 | 23 Aug | 18:00 | 3AM Sat | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▲ | 70 | 130 | 19.2 | 140.0 |
| 48 | 24 Aug | 06:00 | 3PM Sat | Hurricane (Category 1) | 70 | 130 | 20.9 | 139.7 | |
| 72 | 25 Aug | 06:00 | 3PM Sun | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▲ | 75 | 140 | 24.7 | 137.9 |
| 96 | 26 Aug | 06:00 | 3PM Mon | Hurricane (Category 2) | ▲ | 85 | 155 | 28.2 | 135.6 |
| 120 | 27 Aug | 06:00 | 3PM Tue | Major Hurricane (Category 3) | ▼ | 100 | 185 | 33.0 | 134.7 |
Official information
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Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
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00:09 UTC
Eye of Ernesto
20:41 UTC
Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 19-25 August 2024
Active cyclones
Last updated: Thursday, 22 August — 08:00 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC)
Northern Atlantic
- There are currently no active cyclones over the northern Atlantic Ocean.
Eastern Pacific
Western Pacific
Northern Indian
- There are currently no active cyclones over the northern Indian Ocean.
Active disturbances
Last updated: Thursday, 22 August — 08:00 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC)
Northern Atlantic
- There are currently no active disturbances over the northern Atlantic Ocean.
Eastern Pacific
Western Pacific
- 91W — Invest (no discussion yet)
Northern Indian
- There are currently no active disturbances over the northern Indian Ocean.
Southern Indian
- 90S — Invest (no discussion yet)
Satellite imagery
Regional imagery
Infrared imagery
Model guidance
Regional guidance (GFS)
Information sources
Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)
Other sources
Global outlooks
Climate Prediction Center
10:23 UTC
Map showing likelihood of development
Earlier last week I recall seeing several mets on social media share a map of the atlantic with red opaque and solid colours depicting the likelihood of tropical wave/ingredients for storm development.
Does anyone know what this is and where I might find the source?
And no, I'm not talking about the NHC's 7 and 2 day outlook.
14:07 UTC
Generally speaking, how accurate is the NHC's forecast of "tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days"?
Title.
Possibly against conventional wisdom, we're flying to Orlando for a 10-day break in just over a week's time. Per advice on this sub and elsewhere, I've now started monitoring the Atlantic outlook on the NHC site. Their current assessment is that, other than the existing Ernesto, "tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days."
Perhaps some of the kind folks here could illuminate for me just how accurate this tends to be, as the way I'm reading it, it's suggesting there won't be any disturbances until at least next Tuesday, correct? Could this all change at the drop of a hat sometime this week? Is my vacation in mortal peril? Cheers all!
11:08 UTC
Jongdari (10W — Western Pacific)
Latest observation
This system is no longer being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
Official forecasts
Japan Meteorological Agency
The Japan Meteorological Agency is no longer issuing advisory products for this system.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is no longer issuing advisory products for this system.
Official information
Japan Meteorological Agency
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
[Outlook discussion}(https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwweb.txt)
Radar imagery
Japan Meteorological Agency
Korea Meteorological Administration
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The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.
Regional imagery
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)
Weather Nerds
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Japan Meteorological Agency
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NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History
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Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
03:03 UTC
Gilma (07E — Eastern Pacific)
Latest observation
Last updated: Thursday, 22 August — 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (HST; 15:00 UTC)
| NHC Advisory #17 | 5:00 AM HST (15:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 16.9°N 124.5°W | |
| Relative location: | 2,013 mi (3,240 km) E of Hilo, Hawaii (United States) | |
| Forward motion: | WNW (290°) at 7 knots (6 mph) | |
| Maximum winds: | ▲ | 125 mph (110 knots) |
| Intensity: | Major Hurricane (Category 3) | |
| Minimum pressure: | ▼ | 955 millibars (28.20 inches) |
Official forecast
Last updated: Thursday, 22 August — 2:00 AM HST (12:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | UTC | HST | Saffir-Simpson | knots | mph | °N | °W | ||
| 00 | 22 Aug | 12:00 | 2AM Thu | Major Hurricane (Category 3) | 110 | 125 | 16.9 | 124.5 | |
| 12 | 23 Aug | 00:00 | 2PM Thu | Major Hurricane (Category 4) | ▲ | 115 | 130 | 17.1 | 125.4 |
| 24 | 23 Aug | 12:00 | 2AM Fri | Major Hurricane (Category 3) | ▼ | 105 | 120 | 17.5 | 126.8 |
| 36 | 24 Aug | 00:00 | 2PM Fri | Major Hurricane (Category 3) | ▼ | 100 | 115 | 17.8 | 128.3 |
| 48 | 24 Aug | 12:00 | 2AM Sat | Hurricane (Category 2) | ▼ | 95 | 110 | 18.1 | 129.9 |
| 60 | 25 Aug | 00:00 | 2PM Sat | Hurricane (Category 2) | ▼ | 90 | 105 | 18.3 | 131.5 |
| 72 | 25 Aug | 12:00 | 2AM Sun | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▼ | 80 | 90 | 18.4 | 133.3 |
| 96 | 26 Aug | 12:00 | 2AM Mon | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▼ | 65 | 75 | 18.8 | 137.1 |
| 120 | 27 Aug | 12:00 | 2AM Tue | Tropical Storm | ▼ | 55 | 65 | 19.1 | 141.3 |
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Advisories
Graphics
Productos en español
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)
Radar imagery
Unavailable
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Storm-specific imagery
Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
CIMSS: Multiple bands
RAMMB: Multiple bands
Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Regional imagery
NOAA GOES Image Viewer
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)
Tropical Tidbits
Weather Nerds
Analysis graphics and data
Wind analyses
NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins
NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History
CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History
EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface Temperatures
NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model guidance
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Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
20:56 UTC
Ernie chugging along
21:56 UTC
Any published articles that related tropical cyclone rate of intensification with storm size and/or eye diameter?
People usually say that smaller storms "spin up faster" or storms with pinhole eyes generally reach higher wind speeds. Are there any references I can use that confirm this? I'm making a study about a specific tropical cyclone and I just need this for my RRL.
13:59 UTC
Canaveral Sept. launch forecasting
Guten Tag, I will be traveling to Florida for a September SpaceX launch. Big commitment for me and would like to hedge my risk of postponement/reschedule.
how early can west Africa cells be forecasted and on average, what’s the travel time from West Africa to Caribbean (potential Tropical depression or Hurricane).
wind sheer forecasting predictions typically 3-4 days? (any resources pertaining to forecasted atmospheric sheers would be helpful)
Trying to understand a launch window since there are many atmospheric variables.
Danke!
03:11 UTC
How likely is it that a Category 1 or 2 hurricane would hit NYC?
Sorry if this is the wrong place to ask this, but I’m just curious, seeing the path of Ernesto being a category 1 well north of NYC in the Atlantic. Given how the two most damaging storms in recent memory to NYC (Sandy and Ida) weren’t even hurricanes, I wonder how damaging an actual hurricane would be to the city and what the chances of that happening are. Not looking for a precise answer, but more just a conversation starter.
16:59 UTC
Tropical Tidbits for Wednesday, 14 August: Hurricane Ernesto Expected to Impact Bermuda
16:14 UTC
Tropical Cyclone API
Hi, I'm trying to find an API where I could display tropical cyclone data like points, cones, and actual data like wind speed, gusts, ground speed, pressure, etc. I am aware of the NHC's API, but I am looking for something that'll work on a Leaflet map for example. (KML / KMZ data isn't supported natively on Leaflet.) I'll be willing to pay, just not hundreds of dollars a month lol.
I appreciate any help. :)
18:43 UTC
Wukong (09W — Western Pacific)
Latest observation
Last updated: Friday, 16 August — 9:00 AM Japan Standard Time (JST; 00:00 UTC)
| ATCF | 9:00 AM JST (00:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 41.0°N 154°E | |
| Relative location: | 1,382 km (859 mi) ENE of Tokyo, Japan | |
| Forward motion: | ▼ | NE (55°) at 41 km/h (22 knots) |
| Maximum winds: | 35 km/h (20 knots) | |
| Intensity: | Remnant Low | |
| Minimum pressure: | 1008 millibars (29.77 inches) |
Official forecasts
Japan Meteorological Agency
The Japan Meteorological Agency discontinued issuing advisories for this system at 3:00 PM JST (06:00 UTC) on Thursday, 15 August.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center discontinued issuing advisories for this system at 12:00 PM JST (03:00 UTC) on Thursday, 15 August.
Official information
Japan Meteorological Agency
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
Radar imagery
Japan Meteorological Agency
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
Single bandwidth imagery
Tropical Tidbits: Visible / shortwave infrared
Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared
Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared (Dvorak enhancement)
Tropical Tidbits: Water vapor
Multiple bandwidth imagery
The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.
Regional imagery
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)
Weather Nerds
Analysis products
Best track data
Surface analysis products
Japan Meteorological Agency
Wind analysis and storm intensity estimation products
NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History
CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History
EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface temperature analysis products
NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model products
Disturbance-specific model guidance
Storm-centered guidance
Track guidance
Track and intensity guidance
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
09:28 UTC
Is the term "Tropical Depression" still used?
This season in the North Atlantic I have not heard the term "Tropical Depression" used. It seems systems go from an "Invest" to a "Potential Tropical Cyclone". Has the term "Tropical Depression" been abandoned?
02:24 UTC
Ernesto (05L — Northern Atlantic)
Official observation
This system is no longer being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
Official forecast
The National Hurricane Center issued its final advisory for this system at 12:00 UTC on Tuesday, 20 August.
Official information
The National Hurricane Center is no longer issuing advisories for this system. Please consult your local weather agency for more information.
Aircraft reconnaissance
Aircraft reconnaissance is no longer being conducted for this system.
Radar imagery
Radar imagery is no longer available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Storm-specific imagery
Storm-specific satellite imagery is no longer available for this system through Tropical Tidbits.
RAMMB: Multiple bands
Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Regional imagery
NOAA GOES Image Viewer
Tropical Tidbits
This system is no longer visible using the available imagery sectors on Tropical Tidbits.
Weather Nerds
This system is no longer visible using the available imagery sectors on Weather Nerds.
Analysis graphics and data
Wind analyses
NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins
NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History
CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History
EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface Temperatures
NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model guidance
Storm-specific guidance
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
20:49 UTC
Ampil (08W — Western Pacific)
Latest Observation
Last updated: Monday, 19 August — 9:00 AM Japan Standard Time (JST; 00:00 UTC)
| ATCF | 9:00 AM JST (00:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 44.3°N 162.8°E | |
| Relative location: | 2,183 km (1,356 mi) ENE of Tokyo, Japan | |
| Forward motion: | ▼ | NE (55°) at 36 km/h (19 knots) |
| Maximum winds: | ▼ | 95 km/h (50 knots) |
| Intensity: | ▼ | Extratropical Cyclone |
| Minimum pressure: | ▲ | 982 millibars (29 inches) |
Official forecasts
Japan Meteorological Agency
The Japan Meteorological Agency is no longer issuing advisory products for this system.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is no longer issuing advisory products for this system.
Official information
Japan Meteorological Agency
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
Radar imagery
Japan Meteorological Agency
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
Single bandwidth imagery
Tropical Tidbits: Visible / shortwave infrared
Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared
Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared (Dvorak enhancement)
Tropical Tidbits: Water vapor
Multiple bandwidth imagery
The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.
Regional imagery
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)
Weather Nerds
Analysis products
Best track data
Surface analysis products
Japan Meteorological Agency
Wind analysis and storm intensity estimation products
NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History
CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History
EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface temperature analysis products
NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model products
Disturbance-specific model guidance
Storm-centered guidance
Track guidance
Track and intensity guidance
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
19:47 UTC