Current discussions

Please refer to the list below for individual discussions on selected cyclones and disturbances:

Northern Atlantic

• 17L — Philippe

• Disturbance 1: Southeastern Gulf of Mexico

• Disturbance 2: Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean (Invest 91L)

Active cyclones

Last updated: Monday, 25 September 2023 — 04:00 UTC

Northern Atlantic

17L — Philippe

Discussion by: /u/giantspeck

Philippe—the storm, not the forecaster—has not undergone any significant changes in strength or structure over the past several hours as it continues west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions will likely be just favorable enough for the storm to maintain strength within the next couple of days, as stronger mid-level shear prevents further convective development. Some strengthening is possible later this week as Philippe turns northwestward away from this shear. However, the intensity forecast remains highly uncertain through the end of the week.

Active disturbances

Last updated: Monday, 25 September 2023 — 04:00 UTC

Northern Atlantic

1. Disturbance 1: Southeastern Gulf of Mexico

Discussion by: Dr. Philippe Papin — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in association with a surface trough of low pressure and an upper-level trough. Further development, if any, is expected to be slow to occur over the next few days while the system moves slowly westward. By the middle of the week, upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for additional development.

2. Disturbance 2: Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean (Invest 91L)

Discussion by Dr. Philippe Papin — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is now likely to form around mid-week as the system moves west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.

Eastern Pacific

97E — Invest

Discussion by: John Cangialosi — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Gradual development of the disturbance is likely, and a tropical depression is expected to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves generally westward across the central and western parts of the eastern Pacific basin.

Western Pacific

1. Disturbance 1 — South China Sea (Invest 91W)

Discussion by: /u/giantspeck

A broad and elongated area of low pressure situated a few hundred kilometers southeast of Qui Nhon, Vietnam continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions remain favorable enough that the disturbance could briefly become a tropical depression or storm over the next couple of days as it moves northwestward toward the coast. The disturbance, whether it undergoes further development or not, is likely to make landfall by Wednesday and bring heavy rainfall to the region through the end of the week.

2. Disturbance 2 — West-Central Pacific Ocean (Invest 92W)

Discussion by: /u/giantspeck

A broad area of low pressure situated several hundred kilometers northwest of Guam is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although strong shear has displaced the bulk of the disturbance's convection toward the east and has exposed its low-level center, environmental conditions could become more favorable later this week. The disturbance is expected to drift westward over the next few days and a short-lived tropical depression could develop by midweek.

Satellite imagery

Regional imagery

Infrared imagery

• Western Pacific

• Eastern Pacific

• Northern Atlantic

• Northern Indian

• Southern Indian

Model guidance

Regional guidance (GFS)

• Western Pacific

• Eastern Pacific

• Northern Atlantic

• Northern Indian

• Southern Indian

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

• National Hurricane Center (USA)

• Japan Meteorological Agency

• Meteo France

Other sources

• Joint Typhoon Warning Center (USA)

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

• Global Tropics Hazards / Benefits

Outlook discussion

Updated: Monday, 25 September – 1:00 PM Central Daylight Time (18:00 UTC)

Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:

Discussion by: John Cangialosi (NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit) and Stephen Konarik (NHC Tropical Analysis & Forecast Branch)

A trough of low pressure is producing limited shower activity over portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance is moving westward into unfavorable environmental conditions, and development is not expected.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Please note that the outlook graphic mirrors are only manually rehosted whenever the post is updated. They will not update dynamically and will occasionally be outdated.

• Tropical Weather Outlook

• Tropical Weather Discussion

• 2-day Outlook Graphic | (mirror)

• 7-day Outlook Graphic | (mirror)

Radar imagery

Unavailable

Radar imagery is currently unavailable for this system.

Satellite imagery

Regional imagery

Gulf of Mexico / Caribbean Sea:

• Enhanced Infrared

• Enhanced Water vapor

• Visible (true color)

Forecast models

Ensembles

WeatherNerds

• GEFS (120 hours)

• ECENS (120 hours)

Dynamical

Tropical Tidbits

• GFS

• ECMWF

• CMC

• ICON

Latest Observation

Monday, 25 September — 2:00 PM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 18:00 UTC)

Outlook discussion

Updated: Monday, 25 September – 8:00 PM Atlantic Standard Time (00:00 UTC)

Eastern Tropical Atlantic

Discussion by: Dr. Philippe Papin and Eric Blake — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in 2-3 days as the system moves west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

• Tropical Weather Outlook

• Tropical Weather Discussion

• 2-day Outlook Graphic | (mirror)

• 7-day Outlook Graphic | (mirror)

Satellite imagery

Storm-specific imagery

• Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared

• Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared

• Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)

• Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor

• CIMSS: Multiple bands

• RAMMB: Multiple bands

• Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands

Regional imagery

• Tropical Tidbits: Eastern Atlantic

• Enhanced Infrared

• Enhanced Water vapor

• Visible (true color)

• Weathernerds: Eastern Atlantic

Analysis graphics and data

Wind analyses

• EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data

Sea-surface Temperatures

• NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts

• Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis

Model guidance

Storm-specific guidance

• Tropical Tidbits

• University of Albany

• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

• Weather Nerds

Regional single-model guidance

• Tropical Tidbits: GFS

• Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

• Tropical Tidbits: CMC

• Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

• GEFS (120 hours)

• ECENS (120 hours)

Latest observation

Last updated: Sunday, 24 September — 8:00 PM Pacific Daylight Time (PDT; 03:00 UTC)

Official forecast

Last updated: Sunday, 24 September — 8:00 PM Pacific Daylight Time (PDT; 03:00 UTC)

NOTE: The National Hurricane Center has discontinued issuing advisories for this system. There will be no further updates.

Advisories

• Public advisory

• Forecast advisory

• Forecast discussion

Graphics

• Forecast graphic

• Wind speed probabilities

• Arrival time of winds

Radar imagery

Unavailable

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Storm-specific imagery

• Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared

• Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared

• Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)

• Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor

• CIMSS: Multiple bands

• RAMMB: Multiple bands

• Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands

Regional imagery

• Tropical Tidbits: Eastern Pacific

• CIMSS: Enhanced infrared (GOES West)

• CIMSS: Enhanced Water vapor (GOES West)

• CIMSS: Visible (GOES East)

• Weathernerds: Eastern Pacific

Analysis graphics and data

Wind analyses

• NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins

• NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History

• NESDIS: Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis

• CIMSS: Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)

• CIMSS: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus (SATCON)

• CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History

• EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data

Sea-surface Temperatures

• NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts

• Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis

Model guidance

Storm-specific guidance

• Tropical Tidbits

• University of Albany

• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

• Weather Nerds

Regional single-model guidance

• Tropical Tidbits: GFS

• Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

• Tropical Tidbits: CMC

• Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

• GEFS (120 hours)

• ECENS (120 hours)

Latest observation

Last updated: Tuesday, 26 September — 5:00 AM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 09:00 UTC)

Official forecast

Last updated: Tuesday, 26 September — 5:00 AM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 09:00 UTC)

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Advisories

• Public advisory

• Forecast advisory

• Forecast discussion

Graphics

• Forecast graphic

• Wind speed probabilities

• Arrival time of winds

• Key messages

Aircraft reconnaissance

National Hurricane Center

• Aircraft Reconnaissance main page

• Plan of the Day (For Today)

• Plan of the Day (For Tomorrow)

Tropical Tidbits

• Aircraft Reconnaissance data visualization

Radar imagery

Unavailable

Radar imagery is currently unavailable for this system.

Satellite imagery

Storm-specific imagery

• Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared

• Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared

• Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)

• Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor

• CIMSS: Multiple bands

• RAMMB: Multiple bands

• Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands

Regional imagery

• Tropical Tidbits: Western Atlantic

• CIMSS: Enhanced infrared

• CIMSS: Enhanced Water vapor

• CIMSS: Visible

• Weathernerds: Western Atlantic

Analysis graphics and data

Wind analyses

• NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins

• NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History

• NESDIS: Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis

• CIMSS: Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)

• CIMSS: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus (SATCON)

• CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History

• EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data

Sea-surface Temperatures

• NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts

• Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis

Model guidance

Storm-specific guidance

• Tropical Tidbits

• University of Albany

• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

• Weather Nerds

Regional single-model guidance

• Tropical Tidbits: GFS

• Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

• Tropical Tidbits: CMC

• Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

• Weathernerds: GEFS (120 hours)

• Weathernerds: ECENS (120 hours)

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Latest observation

Last updated: Sunday, 24 September — 5:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 09:00 UTC)

Official forecast

Last updated: Sunday, 24 September — 5:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 09:00 UTC)

Official information

Weather Prediction Center

Advisories

• Public advisory

• Forecast advisory

• Forecast discussion

Graphics

• Key messages

• U.S. rainfall potential

• Flash flooding potential

National Weather Service

NWS Wakefield, VA

• Homepage

• Forecaster discussion

• Social Media: Twitter | Facebook

NWS Baltimore, MD / Washington, DC

• Homepage

• Forecaster discussion

• Social Media: Twitter | Facebook

NWS Philadelphia, MD / Mt. Holly, NJ

• Homepage

• Forecaster discussion

• Social Media: Twitter | Facebook

Aircraft reconnaissance

National Hurricane Center

• Aircraft Reconnaissance main page

• Plan of the Day (For Today)

• Plan of the Day (For Tomorrow)

Tropical Tidbits

• Aircraft Reconnaissance data visualization

Radar imagery

National Weather Service

• Wakefield, VA

• Baltimore, MD

• Fort Dix, NJ

College of DuPage

Regional Mosaic

• Mid-Atlantic Region

NEXRAD Sites

• Wakefield, VA

• Baltimore, MD

• Fort Dix, NJ

Satellite imagery

Storm-specific imagery

• Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared

• Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared

• Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)

• Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor

• CIMSS: Multiple bands

• RAMMB: Multiple bands

• Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands

Regional imagery

• Tropical Tidbits: Western Atlantic

• CIMSS: Enhanced infrared

• CIMSS: Enhanced Water vapor

• CIMSS: Visible

• Weathernerds: Western Atlantic

Analysis graphics and data

Wind analyses

• NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins

• NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History

• NESDIS: Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis

• CIMSS: Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)

• CIMSS: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus (SATCON)

• CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History

• EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data

Sea-surface Temperatures

• NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts

• Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis

Model guidance

Storm-specific guidance

• Tropical Tidbits

• University of Albany

• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

• Weather Nerds

Regional single-model guidance

• Tropical Tidbits: GFS

• Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

• Tropical Tidbits: CMC

• Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

• Weathernerds: GEFS (120 hours)

• Weathernerds: ECENS (120 hours)

Current discussions

Please refer to the list below for individual discussions on selected cyclones and disturbances:

Northern Atlantic

• 16L — Ophelia

• 90L — Invest

Active cyclones

Last updated: Saturday, 22 September 2023 — 08:00 UTC

Northern Atlantic

16L — Ophelia

Discussion by: /u/giantspeck

Ophelia is maintaining intensity just below hurricane strength as it moves slowly north-northwestward toward the North Carolina coast. The storm has very little time left over warm waters and is unlikely to undergo further development before making landfall later this morning. Strong winds, heavy rainfall, and life-threatening storm surge are likely to spread to the mid-Atlantic states over the weekend as Ophelia gradually turns northward.

Active disturbances

Last updated: Thursday, 21 September 2023 — 20:00 UTC

Northern Atlantic

90L — Invest

Discussion by: Larry Kelly — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. A tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is then expected to turn west-northwestward early next week as it moves over the central tropical Atlantic.

Eastern Pacific

97E — Invest

Discussion by: John Cangialosi — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Gradual development of the disturbance is likely, and a tropical depression is expected to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves generally westward across the central and western parts of the eastern Pacific basin.

Central Pacific

91C — Invest

Discussion by: Sam Houston — CPHC Forecaster

A weak area of low pressure located more than 700 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii continues to have sporadic disorganized thunderstorms displaced to the east. Strong upper-level winds will likely continue to inhibit any significant development of this system as it moves westward at around 10 mph.

Western Pacific

91W — Invest

Discussion by: /u/giantspeck

A broad area of low pressure situated over the South China Sea continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions should remain favorable through the weekend to allow the disturbance to gradually consolidate as it moves westward along the base of a subtropical ridge. There is an increasing chance that this system could become a tropical depression by early next week as it approaches the coast of Vietnam.

Satellite imagery

Regional imagery

Infrared imagery

• Western Pacific

• Eastern Pacific

• Northern Atlantic

• Northern Indian

• Southern Indian

Model guidance

Regional guidance (GFS)

• Western Pacific

• Eastern Pacific

• Northern Atlantic

• Northern Indian

• Southern Indian

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

• National Hurricane Center (USA)

• Japan Meteorological Agency

• Meteo France

Other sources

• Joint Typhoon Warning Center (USA)

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

• Global Tropics Hazards / Benefits

Do hurricanes move north quicker based on strength? For example if a hurricane 1 had the same environment around it as a hurricane 4, would the 4 move north faster?

Latest observation

Last updated: Friday, 22 September — 8:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (PDT; 15:00 UTC)

Official forecast

Last updated: Friday, 22 September — 8:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (PDT; 15:00 UTC)

NOTE: The National Hurricane Center has issued its final advisory for Kenneth. There will be no further updates to the forecast information depicted below.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Advisories

• Public advisory

• Forecast advisory

• Forecast discussion

Graphics

• Forecast graphic

• Wind speed probabilities

• Arrival time of winds

Radar imagery

Unavailable

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Storm-specific imagery

• Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared

• Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared

• Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)

• Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor

• CIMSS: Multiple bands

• RAMMB: Multiple bands

• Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands

Regional imagery

• Tropical Tidbits: Eastern Pacific

• CIMSS: Enhanced infrared (GOES West)

• CIMSS: Enhanced Water vapor (GOES West)

• CIMSS: Visible (GOES East)

• Weathernerds: Eastern Pacific

Analysis graphics and data

Wind analyses

• NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins

• NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History

• NESDIS: Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis

• CIMSS: Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)

• CIMSS: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus (SATCON)

• CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History

• EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data

Sea-surface Temperatures

• NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts

• Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis

Model guidance

Storm-specific guidance

• Tropical Tidbits

• University of Albany

• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

• Weather Nerds

Regional single-model guidance

• Tropical Tidbits: GFS

• Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

• Tropical Tidbits: CMC

• Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

• GEFS (120 hours)

• ECENS (120 hours)

Latest observation

Last updated: Friday, 22 September — 9:00 AM Greenwich Mean Time (GMT; 09:00 UTC)

Official forecast

Last updated: Friday, 22 September — 9:00 AM Greenwich Mean Time (GMT; 09:00 UTC)

NOTE: This is the final forecast from the National Hurricane Center. There will be no further updates for this system.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Advisories

• Public advisory

• Forecast advisory

• Forecast discussion

Graphics

• Forecast graphic

• Wind speed probabilities

• Arrival time of winds

Aircraft reconnaissance

National Hurricane Center

• Aircraft Reconnaissance main page

• Plan of the Day (For Today)

• Plan of the Day (For Tomorrow)

Tropical Tidbits

• Aircraft Reconnaissance data visualization

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not yet available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Storm-specific imagery

• Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared

• Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared

• Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)

• Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor

• CIMSS: Multiple bands

• RAMMB: Multiple bands

• Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands

Regional imagery

• Tropical Tidbits: Western Atlantic

• CIMSS: Enhanced infrared

• CIMSS: Enhanced Water vapor

• CIMSS: Visible

• Weathernerds: Western Atlantic

Analysis graphics and data

Wind analyses

• NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins

• NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History

• NESDIS: Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis

• CIMSS: Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)

• CIMSS: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus (SATCON)

• CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History

• EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data

Sea-surface Temperatures

• NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts

• Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis

Model guidance

Storm-specific guidance

• Tropical Tidbits

• University of Albany

• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

• Weather Nerds

Regional single-model guidance

• Tropical Tidbits: GFS

• Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

• Tropical Tidbits: CMC

• Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

• Weathernerds: GEFS (120 hours)

• Weathernerds: ECENS (120 hours)

Latest observation

Saturday, 16 September — 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (HST; 15:00 UTC)

Official forecast

Saturday, 16 September — 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (HST; 15:00 UTC)

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Advisories

• Public advisory

• Forecast advisory

• Forecast discussion

Graphics

• Forecast graphic

• Wind speed probabilities

• Arrival time of winds

Radar imagery

Unavailable

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Storm-specific imagery

• Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared

• Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared

• Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)

• Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor

• CIMSS: Multiple bands

• RAMMB: Multiple bands

• Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands

Regional imagery

• Tropical Tidbits: Eastern Pacific

• CIMSS: Enhanced infrared (GOES West)

• CIMSS: Enhanced Water vapor (GOES West)

• CIMSS: Visible (GOES East)

• Weathernerds: Eastern Pacific

Analysis graphics and data

Wind analyses

• NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins

• NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History

• NESDIS: Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis

• CIMSS: Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)

• CIMSS: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus (SATCON)

• CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History

• EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data

Sea-surface Temperatures

• NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts

• Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis

Model guidance

Storm-specific guidance

• Tropical Tidbits

• University of Albany

• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

• Weather Nerds

Regional single-model guidance

• Tropical Tidbits: GFS

• Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

• Tropical Tidbits: CMC

• Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

• GEFS (120 hours)

• ECENS (120 hours)

For some of the past few named storms this season, it seems to be a recurring theme that storms are getting pulled up north, rather than making US landfall, due to a break in high pressure caused by a previous storm. If the Atlantic keeps spitting out tropical systems, it seems plausible that this could happen over and over again. Whereas, if the tropics were to get a lot more quiet, I feel like any new storm that forms would have a lower probability of getting pulled north since there wouldn't be the opportunity for a previous storm to create that break in the high pressure. Is this line of thinking right in any way?