/r/TropicalWeather
The intent of this subreddit is to provide a centralized location to discuss tropical cyclone, including their climatology, their development, their movement, and their impacts to life, property, and the environment. The moderator staff strives to minimize excessive speculation and fearmongering and to distribute and emphasize lifesaving information from official sources.
/r/TropicalWeather
Last updated: Friday, 6 December — 12:00 AM Cocos Islands Time (CCT; 18:00 UTC)
ATCF | 12:00 AM CCT (18:00 UTC) | |
---|---|---|
Current location: | 11.9°S 85.1°E | |
Relative location: | 1,278 km (794 mi) W of West Island, Cocos Islands (Australia) | |
1,484 km (922 mi) ESE of Diego Garcia (United Kingdom) | ||
Forward motion: | W (270°) at 6 km/h (3 knots) | |
Maximum winds: | ▲ | 35 km/h (20 knots) |
Minimum pressure: | ▼ | 1006 millibars (29.71 inches) |
2-day potential: (through 12AM Sun) | low (20 percent) | |
7-day potential: (through 12AM Thu) | low (20 percent) |
Last updated: Friday, 6 December — 7:00 AM CCT (01:00 UTC)
Animated multispectral satellite imagery and a 052339Z AMSR2 91GHz F18 microwave image depict a broad area of turning obscured by flaring deep convection. A 051830Z AMSR2 GCOM W1 wind speed image reveals a broad asymmetric wind field with increased wind speeds restricted to the southwestern quadrant. Environmental analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment for development, characterized by low to moderate vertical wind shear (15 to 20 knots), warm sea surface temperatures (29 to 30°C). These favorable conditions are offset by relatively weak poleward outflow. Global deterministic models show slow, yet study development over the next 48 to 72 hours.
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
Last updated: Friday, 6 December — 7:00 AM Christmas Island Time (CXT; 00:00 UTC)
ATCF | 7:00 AM CXT (00:00 UTC) | |
---|---|---|
Current location: | 8.0°S 104.9°E | |
Relative location: | 160 km (100 mi) N of Christmas Island (Australia) | |
Forward motion: | ▲ | NW (320°) at 12 km/h (6 knots) |
Maximum winds: | ▲ | 35 km/h (20 knots) |
Minimum pressure: | 1002 millibars (29.59 inches) | |
2-day potential: (through 7AM Sun) | low (less than 10 percent) | |
7-day potential: (through 7AM Thu) | medium (40 percent) |
Last updated: Friday, 6 December — 7:00 AM CXT (00:00 UTC)
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has not yet added this disturbance to its Indian Ocean tropical cyclone outlook discussion.
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
Last updated: Friday, 6 December — 4:00 AM Mauritius Time (MUT; 00:00 UTC)
ATCF | 4:00 AM MUT (00:00 UTC) | |
---|---|---|
Current location: | 11.0°S 73.3°E | |
Relative location: | 421 km (262 mi) SSE of Diego Garcia (United Kingdom) | |
1,430 km (889 mi) NE of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues (Mauritius) | ||
Forward motion: | ▲ | W (285°) at 25 km/h (13 knots) |
Maximum winds: | 35 km/h (20 knots) | |
Minimum pressure: | ▼ | 1004 millibars (29.65 inches) |
2-day potential: (through 4AM Sun) | low (30 percent) | |
7-day potential: (through 4AM Thu) | medium (40 percent) |
Last updated: Friday, 6 December — 4:00 AM MUT (00:00 UTC)
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has not yet added this disturbance to its Indian Ocean tropical cyclone outlook discussion.
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
Last updated: Tuesday, 3 December — 7:00 AM Indochina Time (ICT; 00:00 UTC)
ATCF | 7:00 AM ICT (00:00 UTC) | |
---|---|---|
Current location: | 6.0°N 107.7°E | |
Relative location: | 425 km (264 mi) SSE of Bạc Liêu, Vietnam | |
Forward motion: | ▼ | SW (235°) at 7 km/h (4 knots) |
Maximum winds: | 30 km/h (15 knots) | |
Minimum pressure: | 1006 millibars (29.71 inches) | |
2-day potential: (through 7AM Thu) | low (10 percent) | |
7-day potential: (through 7AM Mon) | low (10 percent) |
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has not yet added this system to its Pacific outlook discussion.
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Last updated: Monday, 2 December — 15:00 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC)
99S — Invest (Southeastern Indian Ocean) (designated Tropical Low 04U by the Australia Bureau of Meteorology)
79S — Future Invest (Southeastern Indian Ocean) (designated Tropical Low 02U by the Australia Bureau of Meteorology)
Last updated: Tuesday, 3 December — 5:30 AM India Standard Time (IST; 00:00 UTC)
ATCF | 5:30 AM IST (00:00 UTC) | |
---|---|---|
Current location: | 13.7°N 75.6°E | |
Relative location: | 26 km (16 mi) S of Shimoga, Karnataka (India) | |
Forward motion: | ▼ | WNW (300°) at 23 km/h (12 knots) |
Maximum winds: | 35 km/h (20 knots) | |
Minimum pressure: | ▼ | 1002 millibars (29.59 inches) |
2-day potential: (through 5AM Thu) | low (10 percent) | |
7-day potential: (through 5AM Mon) | low (10 percent) |
The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
Last updated: Sunday, 1 December — 6:30 PM Cocos Island Time (CCT; 12:00 UTC)
ATCF | 6:30 PM CCT (12:00 UTC) | |
---|---|---|
Current location: | 19.0°S 93.0°E | |
Relative location: | 865 km (537 mi) SSW of West Island, Cocos Islands (Australia) | |
Forward motion: | ▲ | SW (240°) at 12 km/h (7 knots) |
Maximum winds: | 45 km/h (25 knots) | |
Minimum pressure: | 1004 millibars (29.65 inches) |
NOTE: Neither Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) nor the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) are issuing advisories for this system.
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.
Weathernerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weathernerds: ECENS (120 hours)
Last updated: Sunday, 1 December — 17:00 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC)
I'm talking about these types of storms: Nisha-Orama (Officially a Category 3), Hina (Officially a Category 4), Dianmu (Officially 915 hPA - how????) Olaf (2005), and more. I put satellite images of the storms which literally just shows the underestimation, you can tell they're stronger.
Why do the strongest typhoons often hit the Philippines in November? Super Typhoon Haiyan struck on November 8, Super Typhoon Goni on November 1, and this month alone, the Philippines has already been hit by four typhoons, and two of them are super typhoons. (im a newbie when it comes to tropical cyclones, i was just curious)
Last updated: Saturday, 23 November — 21:00 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC)
Last updated: Tuesday, 19 November — 1:00 PM Indochina Time (ICT; 06:00 UTC)
JTWC Warning #42 | 1:00 PM ICT (06:00 UTC) | |
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Current location: | 18.8°N 113.0°E | |
Relative location: | 275 km (171 mi) E of Wanning, Hainan (China) | |
Forward motion: | WSW (265°) at 19 km/h (10 knots) | |
Maximum winds: | ▼ | 55 km/h (30 knots) |
Intensity (SSHWS): | ▼ | Tropical Depression |
Intensity (JMA): | Tropical Storm [see note] | |
Minimum pressure: | ▲ | 1002 millibars (29.59 inches) |
^NOTE ^- ^Based ^on ^the ^Japan ^Meteorological ^Agency's ^ten-minute ^maximum ^sustained ^wind ^estimate ^of ^75 ^kilometers ^per ^hour ^(40 ^knots).
Last updated: Tuesday, 19 November — 4:00 PM ICT (09:00 UTC)
Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
— | UTC | ICT | JMA | knots | km/h | °N | °E | ||
00 | 19 Nov | 09:00 | 4PM Tue | Tropical Storm | 40 | 75 | 18.5 | 112.5 | |
12 | 19 Nov | 21:00 | 4AM Wed | Tropical Storm | ▼ | 35 | 65 | 17.5 | 110.8 |
24 | 20 Nov | 09:00 | 4PM Wed | Tropical Depression | ▼ | 30 | 55 | 16.3 | 109.9 |
Last updated: Tuesday, 19 November — 4:00 PM ICT (09:00 UTC)
Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
— | UTC | ICT | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °E | ||
00 | 19 Nov | 06:00 | 1PM Tue | Tropical Depression | 30 | 55 | 18.8 | 113.0 | |
12 | 19 Nov | 18:00 | 1AM Wed | Tropical Depression | ▼ | 25 | 45 | 17.9 | 111.2 |
24 | 20 Nov | 06:00 | 1PM Wed | Remnant Low | ▼ | 20 | 35 | 16.7 | 109.3 |
36 | 20 Nov | 18:00 | 1AM Thu | Dissipated |
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Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
I understand airports can close due to wind, flooding, power outages, etc, but i'm mostly curious about winds. What are the time-windows which typically cause delays and cancellations at airports due to winds? Hrs or days?
Example, TropStorm 19 might be a hurricane, likely passing NE just south of Cancun Monday AM, I'm curious when the these winds might begin and when they might be gone. I see Arrival Time of TS Winds charts, but how long do those periods last? Would winds be gone by Tue in the example above?
Last updated: Sunday, 17 November — 9:00 PM Central Standard Time (CST; 03:00 UTC)
NHC Advisory #18 | 9:00 PM CST (03:00 UTC) | |
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Current location: | 18.1°N 90.7°W | |
Relative location: | 490 km (304 mi) WNW of La Ceiba, Honduras | |
Forward motion: | WNW (300°) at 20 km/h (11 knots) | |
Maximum winds: | 45 km/h (25 knots) | |
Intensity: | Tropical Depression | |
Minimum pressure: | 1004 millibars (29.65 inches) |
Last updated: Sunday, 17 November — 6:00 PM CST (00:00 UTC)
Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
- | UTC | CST | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °W | ||
00 | 18 Nov | 00:00 | 6PM Sun | Tropical Depression | 25 | 45 | 18.1 | 90.7 | |
12 | 18 Nov | 12:00 | 6AM Mon | Remnant Low | ▼ | 20 | 35 | 19.3 | 92.0 |
24 | 19 Nov | 00:00 | 6PM Mon | Dissipated |
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
Last updated: Saturday, 23 November — 4:00 PM Reunion Time (RET; 12:00 UTC)
ATCF | 4:00 PM RET (12:00 UTC) | |
---|---|---|
Current location: | 23.3°S 52.1°E | |
Relative location: | 439 km (273 mi) SW of Saint-Denis, Réunion (France) | |
Forward motion: | ▼ | SE (150°) at 7 km/h (4 knots) |
Maximum winds: | 35 km/h (20 knots) | |
Minimum pressure: | 1007 millibars (29.74 inches) |
Both Météo-France and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center have assessed this system to have degenerated into a remnant low and have thus discontinued issuing forecast advisory products for it. This post will only update until this system's position and intensity are no longer being updated in the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.
Weathernerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weathernerds: ECENS (120 hours)
Last updated: Thursday, 14 November — 8:00 AM Philippine Standard Time (PhST; 00:00 UTC)
JTWC Warning #20 | 8:00 AM PhST (00:00 UTC) | |
---|---|---|
Current location: | 21.0°N 114.0°E | |
Relative location: | 148 km (92 mi) S of Hong Kong | |
Forward motion: | WSW (255°) at 7 km/h (4 knots) | |
Maximum winds: | ▼ | 45 km/h (25 knots) |
Intensity (SSHWS): | Tropical Depression | |
Intensity (JMA): | Tropical Storm [see note] | |
Minimum pressure: | ▲ | 1005 millibars (29.68 inches) |
^NOTE ^- ^Based ^on ^the ^Japan ^Meteorological ^Agency's ^ten-minute ^maximum ^sustained ^wind ^estimate ^of ^65 ^kilometers ^per ^hour ^(35 ^knots).
Last updated: Thursday, 14 November — 2:00 PM PhST (06:00 UTC)
Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
— | UTC | PhST | JMA | knots | km/h | °N | °E | ||
00 | 14 Nov | 06:00 | 2PM Thu | Tropical Storm | 35 | 65 | 21.2 | 113.9 | |
12 | 14 Nov | 18:00 | 2AM Fri | Tropical Depression | ▼ | 30 | 55 | 21.2 | 113.2 |
24 | 15 Nov | 06:00 | 2PM Fri | Tropical Depression | 30 | 55 | 21.0 | 112.6 |
Last updated: Thursday, 14 November — 11:00 AM PhST (03:00 UTC)
NOTE: The JTWC has issued its final advisory for this system.
Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
— | UTC | PhST | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °E | ||
00 | 14 Nov | 00:00 | 8AM Thu | Tropical Depression | 25 | 45 | 21.0 | 114.0 | |
12 | 14 Nov | 12:00 | 8PM Thu | Remnant Low | ▼ | 20 | 35 | 20.9 | 113.4 |
24 | 15 Nov | 00:00 | 8AM Fri | Remnant Low | ▼ | 15 | 30 | 20.7 | 113.2 |
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Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
Last updated: Thursday, 14 November — 10:00 AM Eastern Standard Time (EST; 15:00 UTC)
NHC Advisory #4 | 10:00 AM EST (15:00 UTC) | |
---|---|---|
Current location: | 15.7°N 82.6°W | |
Relative location: | 449 km (279 mi) E of La Ceiba, Honduras | |
Forward motion: | W (265°) at 22 km/h (12 knots) | |
Maximum winds: | 55 km/h (30 knots) | |
Intensity: | Tropical Depression | |
Minimum pressure: | 1004 millibars (29.65 inches) |
Last updated: Thursday, 14 November — 7:00 AM EST (12:00 UTC)
Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
- | UTC | EST | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °W | ||
00 | 14 Nov | 12:00 | 7AM Thu | Tropical Depression | 30 | 55 | 15.7 | 82.6 | |
12 | 15 Nov | 00:00 | 7PM Thu | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 35 | 65 | 15.7 | 83.7 |
24 | 15 Nov | 12:00 | 7AM Fri | Tropical Storm ^1 | ▲ | 40 | 75 | 15.9 | 84.9 |
36 | 16 Nov | 00:00 | 7PM Fri | Tropical Storm ^1 | 40 | 75 | 15.9 | 85.4 | |
48 | 16 Nov | 12:00 | 7AM Sat | Tropical Storm ^1 | 40 | 75 | 15.9 | 85.8 | |
60 | 17 Nov | 00:00 | 7PM Sat | Tropical Storm ^1 | ▲ | 45 | 85 | 16.0 | 86.2 |
72 | 17 Nov | 12:00 | 7AM Sun | Tropical Storm ^2 | 45 | 85 | 16.2 | 87.0 | |
96 | 18 Nov | 12:00 | 7AM Mon | Tropical Depression ^3 | ▼ | 30 | 55 | 18.0 | 89.6 |
120 | 19 Nov | 12:00 | 7AM Tue | Tropical Depression ^4 | 30 | 55 | 21.7 | 91.6 |
^NOTES:
^1 ^- ^Near ^the ^coast ^of ^Honduras
^2 ^- ^Over ^the ^Gulf ^of ^Honduras
^3 ^- ^Inland ^over ^Mexico
^4 ^- ^Over ^the ^Gulf ^of Mexico
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
Yinxing, Toraji, Usagi, and Man-yi