This formed next to a tree.

This area was level and full of great grass prior to hurricane. Something caused all the grass to disappear, area to sink 2" (hard bottom), and become full of silt like mud (unlike the characteristic clay of this area).

I can't find ANYTHING like it online. Any help or truly appreciated.

Throughout the years, we have seen how often HWRF intensity forecast to be signifcantly higher than the actual intensity. Surely the resolution is not a problem since it's about 2 km wide which is way smaller than many other models (GFS is 22km, ICON is 13km, ECMWF is 9km). So what is the probable cause of the overestimation by HWRF?

Of course, a tropical cyclone can't cross the equator, but given storms that cross basins are possible and well-documented, is it at all possible for a system to survive multiple crossovers (Atlantic → Eastern Pacific → Western Pacific → North Indian Ocean) and circumnavigate?

Latest Observation

Last updated: Saturday, 13 July — 8:00 AM Philippine Standard Time (PHST; 00:00 UTC)

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Last updated: Sunday, 14 July — 1:00 PM Indochina Time (ICT; 06:00 UTC)

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A post has been making rounds on social media which claims that Florida is in the crosshairs for a potentially devastating hurricane.

The post [screenshot] claims that:

• Florida is in the forecast cone of uncertainty for a recently developed 'Tropical Depression #9'

• Hurricane conditions are expected from Monday to Wednesday.

• Category 3 hurricane strength cannot be ruled out.

This post is false.

• The National Hurricane Center is not forecasting a hurricane next week.

• The recently-departed Beryl was the second cyclone of the season. The only storm to form after Beryl was the short-lived Chris. We are not up to the ninth depression of the season yet.

• The information in the post was lifted from an old and since-deleted Facebook post created WINK meteorologist Matt Devitt. The tropical depression mentioned in the original post formed on 23 September 2022 and eventually strengthened into Hurricane Ian. Here is the accompanying tweet that shows the same graphic.

Please use critical thinking when sharing meteorological information on social media and educate family members who may be vulnerable and susceptible to online misinformation.

The reason I ask is because I recently learned that Cyclone Tracy in Australia was "only" a category 3. The photos of the aftermath look more like a category 5. In fact, they're very reminiscent of Hurricane Andrew. Poor construction may have a role to play, but even the tree damage looks like what you'd see in a cat 5. Any other storms you can think of that produced much more wind damage than what you'd expect given its saffir-simpson rating?

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/11072024/florida-sea-level-rise-accelerates-at-extreme-rates/

I have an app that supports the Western Pacific, and I was wondering when could I expect some storms to start there? Nothing is going on right now. Thanks!

Outlook discussion

Last updated: Saturday, 13 July — 11:00 PM Pacific Daylight Time (PDT; 06:00 UTC)

Discussion by: John Cangialosin — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

A tropical wave located about 800 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central and western portion of the basin during the next several days.

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Unavailable

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Outlook discussion

Last updated: Friday, 12 July – 2:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 18:00 UTC)

Discussion by: Dr. Philippe Papin — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

A broad area of low pressure centered near the South and North Carolina coastline continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Strong upper-level winds should limit any development of this system before it moves fully inland this afternoon. However, the disturbance could contribute to areas of heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across coastal portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic through tonight. For more information about the potential for heavy rainfall, see products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office.

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The primary emphasis of this subreddit involves provision of commentary on storm specific meteorology and consequences.

But the ability to understand the larger trend to larger storms, more frequent rapid intensification events and wetter storms, a different kind of understanding is required especially as we approach the possibility of materially slowing the overturning ocean circulation for the first time in ~ 13k years which was prior to the explosion of human agricultural civilization.

Many of you have heard or read of the concept of the AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) slowing down or stopping, but I am going to endeavor to show you graphically so that you can see the evidence with your own eyes.

The following is a link to a NOAA website which publishes data about Earth's climate conditions. I have selected the following 2 attributes .... 1) Ocean Currents and 2) Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA vs the average of roughly 30 years ago) as the attributes to demonstrate my points.

earth :: a global map of wind, weather, and ocean conditions (nullschool.net)

There are two pieces of important background information which are relevant to understanding basic ocean circulation.

1) Coriolis Effect - this is natural law similar to the mechanism in which humans organize vehicular traffic. In the N. Hemisphere, ocean currents stays in the right lane just like we drive in the USA and most of the world. In the S. Hemisphere, water stays in the left lane the way they organize traffic in Great Britain.

2) Thermohaline circulation - Ocean currents travel along a density gradient and the 2 factors which influence ocean water density are salinity and temperature. For purposes of the water masses we will be examining, salinity has the greater influence on density of the two factors.

Standard AMOC Function

Below is a MAP of typical AMOC circulation. The red lines represent the N ==> S flow of water from the tropics to the N. Atlantic. The standard operation (of the past 13k years) is that warm salty water flows north and the water cools as it travels north. At the north end of its journey, heat is lost and cold salty water (the densest ocean variety) sinks to the ocean floor and makes the return journey to the south.

(1) NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Lab on X: "In addition to what it brings, the #thermohalinecirculation takes up anthropogenic carbon dioxide (which acidifies surface waters) at high latitudes, when that water sinks carbon is stored in the deep ocean. @NASA https://t.co/53PcwWAVx6" / X (twitter.com)

What's changing ?

Observe the NOAA map and look at the perimeter of Greenland. You will see that it the water surrounding the continent is colored "blue" which means that the water in that particular location is colder than the historical norm.

earth :: a global map of wind, weather, and ocean conditions (nullschool.net)

The primary reason for this is that Greenland is losing ice to melt and that there is no colder liquid water than that which is freshly melted. If you follow the current, fresh water melt from the Arctic Ocean exits the Arctic through the Fram Strait and hugs the land to the right as dictated by Coriolis forces and wraps itself around the continent, joining the Greenland ice melt until it encounters a greater opposing force. If you look closely, you can see that current emerges from Baffin Bay (the space between Greenland and NE Canada) and flows into the N. Atlantic. This is supplying unprecedented (vis a vis: timespan of human civilization) fresh water hosing into the N. Atlantic.

If you follow the outflowing fresh water hosing from south of Greenland, you will see that that map color of the ocean immediately to the south of the outflow is bright yellow. This color indicates that the ocean is much warmer in the region between New Brunswick, Canada and Morocco.

This is happening because the fresh water in the sinking region is reducing the density and slowing the entire circulation down. Think of it like a clot and we're giving the ocean circulation something equivalent to a stroke.

How does this impact hurricanes ?

Hurricanes are complex critters and I defer to the storm specific meteorological understanding of some of the frequent users of this sub.

But all things being equal, heat wants to move toward equilibrium and if we slow an ocean current that transfers 30M m3 of water per second, then the pressure gradient is naturally transferred to and expressed through the atmosphere. It may not always be expressed via a tropical storm .... there are other baroclinical avenues of north / side heat transfer. But the bias in the system weighs in favor of formed hurricanes being stronger and we now have 10 consecutive years of 150MPH+ storms in the Atlantic. Something clearly not remotely precedented in hurricane records.

How will this impact other things ?

For many of you, the only concern is whether a hurricane is going to impact you or your loved ones in the next week or two. And if that is all you have space to care about .... this is a good place to stop.

For those who have space to look ahead, the ocean having a serious stroke in the coming decades is going to impact all of our lives far more than a single hurricane can. Human civilization rests on a foundation of relatively consistent weather to grow food in order to sustain a population of 8 billion. Human civilization has zero acquaintance with the ocean of today, let alone the one which no longer overturns.

We are on the cusp of unleashing an environment in which a significant percentage of our species will perish involuntarily. This is not all that complicated. The images I shared are public domain and the understanding is accessible to a layperson like myself who is simply curious to seek and investigate.

We need to set aside our differences and shift to a form of governance which provides people what they need instead of what they desire. We need to elect people who will tell us to put away our toys and get around to the work of attempting to restore the planet to a survivable homeostatic balance.

You are an audience of people who are seeing the symptoms of a planet changing as a result of human industrial byproducts like CO2. The warning signs are flashing a red alert. A picture paints a thousand words and that's what I'm trying to share here.

Peace.

Personally I think this is a good idea for two reasons: Firstly, we can prevent more seasons from using the auxillary list: The current naming system uses a list of 21 names that alternate between masculine and feminine names. With the increasing frequency of hurricanes, this list could be exhausted more frequently, especially if there is an active hurricane season. It won't prevent 2005 and 2020 from using the auxillary list, but at least it can peevent seasons having 22 to 26 storms (which definitely can happen) from using it. Secondly, East Pacific naming list and Atlantic naming list not having the same number, and for me that is inconsistent. Originally they both have 21 names and the reason it stop being the case is just 1985 East Pacific season was extremely active. The main reason why we don't have Q,U,X,Y,Z names in the list back when they made it in 1970s is because the names' rarity. Names start from these letter is rarer than names from other letters, but that doesn't mean we don't have them. In fact we have a significant number of names starting from this letter that it's enough for using in the naming list, for example: Q:Quinn, Quentin, Quade, Quella, Quetzalli, Quadarius, Querida, Quintius, Quantrell, Quigley, Quirino, Quetsalesk, Quetura, Quiron, Quax, Quisina U: Uriel, Ulysses, Ursula, Usman, Undine, Urijah, Una, Udella, Ulrike, Uchenna, Umberto, Upton, Usha, Unai, Udall, Ulmar X: Xander, Xiomara, Xylia, Xynthia, Xanthus, Xerxes, Xeno, Xandria Y: Yaretzi, Yahir, Yuri, Yanny, Yesenia, Yvonne, Yannis, Yulianna Z: Zachary, Zayden, Zane, Zara, Zamir, Zerlinda, Zia, Zach (I find them on the list of baby names on the Internet by the way, and I acknowledge these names are extremely weird) Bottom line: While this's an interesting idea, I don't think WMO will consider it in the foreseeable future. I still have to accept the current naming list for now and the near future. (Also about naming list: Can RA V tropical cyclone commitee just remove Xavier from the naming list? It's make the length of list A different from every other lists and that don't seem consistent.)

I am curious about this, because even when we have had a Category 4 hurricane here in the Yucatan peninsula, everyone's houses seemed ok after, and there is really minimal flooding. (Obviously there are exceptions with Wilma and Gilberto like 15 -30 years ago.)

But, when I see Category 1 or 2 hurricanes hit Texas or Florida on the news, often people's roofs are off, there is no power for millions of people, the roads have turned into rivers, and there are deaths. For example, Beryl recently.

I'm wondering what causes this difference or if I'm just imagining it? Is it that our houses are made of block instead of wood? Something about the reefs and the mangroves? The storm's path? Thanks for any insight.

I'll readily admit and eat crow on the fact that I was shitting on the ICON model too much here, or, rather, people's reliance on a single model guidance to make and base plans off of. But now that I have some downtime after evacuating from the Matagorda area, I've been looking at the runs from the past week and comparing them to the track that Beryl took. A few initial thoughts:

• Beginning on the 00z run for July 4th, the ICON was insistent that the storm would make landfall on the middle-upper Texas coast, from between Matagorda to Galveston Bay. See [here[(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=us&pkg=mslp\_pcpn\_frzn&runtime=2024070400&fh=108). This was at the time that the ensemble of models was still tending toward a Texas/Mexico border landfall. As the days went on, it seemed like the rest of the models were converging with the ICON's forecast, rather than the other way around.

• While that early on, on Thursday, the timing was still off, it wasn't off by much. Each subsequent run, though, more or less zeroed in on an early morning landfall on July 8th, with Beryl meandering up east Texas.

• While looking at the previous runs, I wasn't paying too much to the intensity forecast the ICON was putting out, but it seemed within the realm within the last couple of days. I remember the thing that put me off from the ICON was two things: a.) on the 2nd and the 3rd, it was forecasting a Louisiana landfall when no other model was putting that down as a possibility at all. b.) when it did shift to Matagorda - Houston landfall on the 4th, it was forecasting a major hurricane (953mb).

• Even with the above, it brought the intensity down more to a level of reality.

Hindsight being 20/20, the ICON performed really well for the Gulf forecast. I rechecked what it was doing for Jamaica and it still overshot it on most runs except leading up to the eyewall crossing south of the Island the day of, but it was in general agreement with other models that I saw at the time. It was hit and miss around the Yucatan. IIRC, the storm went south of Cozumel, where most ICON runs had it doing a direct impact on Cozumel.

I'm struck by how well it handled the forecasts for the Gulf, but was just seemingly "okay" in the Caribbean. I'll definitely be taking it more seriously in future storms. It's too early to tell if it's a one-off or if there's something in the parameters of the model that is intrinsically different that gives it the edge it had in forecasting Beryl in the late period.

With all of that said, though, I'm still feeling put off by the hair-raising screeching that was happening on social media, along with the obnoxious conspiracy theories that tHe GoVeRnMeNt iS lYiNg and that Ventusky proves it. I think right now where I'm landing is that I really hate that people get up on TikTok and Twitter and stake a claim, without any prior knowledge, about what people should and shouldn't be following in terms of weather information. I think there's not enough data yet to say whether this was a one off or not, but the NHC and other meteorologists had been taking the argument that Beryl was constantly defying expectations and they weren't really sure what to do with it. I'm sure they're doing their own post-mortems and it'll be interesting to read what they say.

Anyway. I'm not a meteorologist either. Just a life long obsessive over the weather who went to school for it and dropped out. My word vomit here means little more than the crazies on social media but felt like I had to get my thoughts out on this. Fully up for the downvotes.

Active discussions

• The NHC is monitoring an area off the southeastern coast of the United States...

• The NHC is monitoring an area off the southwestern coast of Mexico...

• 99W (Invest — Western Pacific)

• 90W (Invest — Western Pacific)

Active cyclones

Last updated: Saturday, 13 July 2024 — 04:00 UTC

There are currently no active cyclones.

Active disturbances

Last updated: Saturday, 13 July 2024 — 04:00 UTC

Eastern Pacific

Disturbance 1 — Off the western coast of Mexico

From the National Hurricane Center: A tropical wave south of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. The wave is expected to move westward or west-northwestward at 15 mph during the next few days. Development of the wave, if any, should be slow to occur while it moves across the central and western portion of the basin next week.

Western Pacific

Disturbance 1 — South China Sea (Invest 99W)

A broad area of low pressure over the southern South China Sea is slowly becoming better organized this morning. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive to further development as the disturbance drifts northwestward toward the coast of Vietnam over the next few days.

Disturbance 2 — Philippine Sea (Invest 90W)

An elongated surface trough situated along the southeastern coast of Mindanao continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms this morning. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive to further development as the disturbance drifts north-northwestward; however, the disturbance's close proximity to land over the next few days may considerably limit its potential to become a tropical cyclone.

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In particular I’m trying to find an isolated projection based on the ICON model but haven’t had any luck.

Stream is LIVE for the duration of the event.. you can check us out at various locations on social media but the main ones are twitch.tv/stormchaserirl and youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XB6_mNFEFuU

We are currently in SE Texas near Matagorda. Stream is driven by starlink and multiple modems.

I understand how the coriolis effect causes an increasing eastward velocity of hurricanes as they swing north, but why does the northward component of their velocity also increase? Anyone explain from a physics standpoint?

I was a long time user of Catergory 6 and the forum prior to it. Since it has went away I have been stumbling to find a replacement. Is there any suggestions out there for a good forum or discord with the previous crew of people? Or even a new set of people but just as active?