Latest Observation

Last updated: Friday, 29 March — 3:00 AM East Africa Time (EAT; 00:00 UTC)

Official forecasts

Meteo France

Last updated: Thursday, 28 March — 3:00 PM EAT (12:00 UTC)

Meteo France is no longer issuing forecast products for this system. Please see below for the agency's final forecast.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Last updated: Thursday, 28 March — 9:00 PM EAT (18:00 UTC)

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is no longer issuing forecast products for this system. Please see below for the agency's final forecast.

Official information

Meteo France (RSMC Reunion)

• Homepage

• Forecast warning

• Forecast graphic

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

• Warning text

• Warning graphic

• Prognostic reasoning

• Satellite fix bulletin

Radar imagery

Meteo Madagascar

Meteo Madagascar does not provide radar imagery to the public. Therefore, radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

• Tropical Tidbits: Visible / shortwave infrared

• Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared

• Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared (Dvorak enhancement)

• Tropical Tidbits: Water vapor

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

• CIMSS

• RAMMB

• Navy Research Laboratory

Regional imagery

Meteosat

• CIMSS: Enhanced Infrared

• CIMSS: Water vapor

• CIMSS: Visible (true color)

Analysis products

Best track data

• NOAA SSD

Wind analysis and storm intensity estimation products

• NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins

• NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History

• NESDIS: Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis

• CIMSS: Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)

• CIMSS: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus (SATCON)

• CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History

• EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data

Sea-surface temperature analysis products

• NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts

• Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis

Model products

Storm-specific model guidance

Storm-centered guidance

• Tropical Tidbits (GFS)

• Tropical Tidbits (ECMWF)

• Tropical Tidbits (HWRF)

Track guidance

• Tropical Tidbits

• Weather Nerds

Track and intensity guidance

• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

Regional single-model guidance

• Tropical Tidbits: GFS

• Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

• Tropical Tidbits: CMC

• Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

• Weathernerds: GEFS (120 hours)

• Weathernerds: ECENS (120 hours)

I remember reading about Hurricane Lili, which hit Lousiana in 2002, and I always get the imipression that until Katrina, it was one the worst storm to hit that state in quite a while. What are your memories of this storm?

Is there any specific books that talks about tropical weather?

Latest Observation

Last updated: Monday, 25 March — 6:30 AM Cocos Islands Time (CCT; 00:00 UTC)

Official forecasts

Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

The Bureau of Meteorology is no longer issuing forecast products for this system.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is no longer issuing forecast products for this system.

Official information

Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

• Tropical cyclone forecast page

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

• Homepage

• Outlook discussion

Radar imagery

Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

Radar imagery is no longer available for this system as it is too far away from land.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

• Tropical Tidbits: Visible / shortwave infrared

• Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared

• Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared (Dvorak enhancement)

• Tropical Tidbits: Water vapor

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

• CIMSS

• RAMMB

• Navy Research Laboratory

Regional imagery

Himawari

• CIMSS: Enhanced Infrared

• CIMSS: Water vapor

• CIMSS: Visible

Meteosat

• CIMSS: Enhanced Infrared

• CIMSS: Water vapor

• CIMSS: Visible

Analysis products

Best track data

• NOAA SSD

Wind analysis and storm intensity estimation products

• NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins

• NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History

• NESDIS: Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis

• CIMSS: Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)

• CIMSS: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus (SATCON)

• CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History

• EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data

Sea-surface temperature analysis products

• NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts

• Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis

Model products

Storm-specific model guidance

Storm-centered guidance

• Tropical Tidbits (GFS)

• Tropical Tidbits (ECMWF)

• Tropical Tidbits (HWRF)

Track guidance

• Tropical Tidbits

• Weather Nerds

Track and intensity guidance

• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

Regional single-model guidance

• Tropical Tidbits: GFS

• Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

• Tropical Tidbits: CMC

• Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

• Weathernerds: GEFS (120 hours)

• Weathernerds: ECENS (120 hours)

This movie, made in the spring of 2005, predicted a storm that would hit Louisana in the fall of that year, on Labor Day. This storm would wreck the economy, after some oil platforms were very badly damaged or destroyed by the winds. I believe it is free on You Tube.

Latest Observation

Last updated: Thursday, 21 March — 3:30 AM Australia Central Standard Time (ACST; 18:00 UTC)

Official forecasts

Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

The Bureau of Meteorology is no longer issuing advisory or forecast products for this system.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is no longer issuing advisory or forecast products for this system.

Official information

Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

• Tropical cyclone forecast page

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

• Outlook discussion

Radar imagery

Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

NOTE: Radar imagery is not available for the area immediately affected by this system.

• National radar loop

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

• Tropical Tidbits: Visible / shortwave infrared

• Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared

• Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared (Dvorak enhancement)

• Tropical Tidbits: Water vapor

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

• CIMSS

• RAMMB

• Navy Research Laboratory

Regional imagery

Himawari

• CIMSS: Enhanced Infrared

• CIMSS: Water vapor

• CIMSS: Visible

Meteosat

• CIMSS: Enhanced Infrared

• CIMSS: Water vapor

• CIMSS: Visible

Analysis products

Best track data

• NOAA SSD

Wind analysis and storm intensity estimation products

• NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins

• NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History

• NESDIS: Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis

• CIMSS: Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)

• CIMSS: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus (SATCON)

• CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History

• EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data

Sea-surface temperature analysis products

• NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts

• Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis

Model products

Storm-specific model guidance

Storm-centered guidance

• Tropical Tidbits (GFS)

• Tropical Tidbits (ECMWF)

• Tropical Tidbits (HWRF)

Track guidance

• Tropical Tidbits

• Weather Nerds

Track and intensity guidance

• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

Regional single-model guidance

• Tropical Tidbits: GFS

• Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

• Tropical Tidbits: CMC

• Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

• Weathernerds: GEFS (120 hours)

• Weathernerds: ECENS (120 hours)

I remember hearing alot about Irene, as it is always compared to Hurricane Sandy, which happened in around the same area the year after. New York was also hit, although not as bad as the forcasts were, which was why people blew off the Sandy warnings the next year, with bad consquences. How bad was Irene in the year 2011?

I always find hurricane Issac intresting, as it was the same strength as Hurricane Sandy, maybe even more powerful, but since Sandy was such a huge storm, and it combined with that cold front from the west, it ended up being a huge freak storm that did damage to the whole East coast., Hurricane Issac, was in the same catagory, maybe even a bit stronger, but since it is known for hitting only the Lousiana area, it does not seem to be as much remembered. What do you remember the most from Hurricane Issac in the year 2012?

One aspect of hurricane season forecasting which tends to be a blind spot many months out is dry, dusty air from the Sahara. This seems to be a very unpredictable factor which confounds both short and long range forecasting.

2013 was predicted by long-range models to be an above-average to very active season, due to the usual teleconnections (ENSO, AMO, etc) all signalling favourable conditions. However, in the last week of July 2013, an absolutely gigantic dust cloud emerged from the Sahara and settled over the Atlantic, completely shutting down cyclogenesis just when the most active part of the season was expected to be getting underway. This resulted in a season which, going against all pre-and mid-season forecasts, actually broke records for its low activity (first season in the satellite era with nothing stronger than a Cat 1).

Bearing this in mind, have any models developed long-range forecasts for Saharan dust outbreaks and their likelihood in any given season? Do we have any indication this far out whether the environment in the Atlantic is likely to be choked by large intrusions of dust? Or does this remain a blind spot; a true wild-card which can only be analysed as it's happening in real time as opposed to forecast months in advance the way SSTs and atmospheric patterns can?

Latest Observation

Last updated: Thursday, 14 March — 4:00 AM Australia Eastern Standard Time (AEST; 18:00 UTC)

Official forecasts

Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

The Bureau of Meteorology has not yet begun to issue forecast products for this system.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has not yet begun to issue forecast products for this system.

Official information

Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

NOTE: The Bureau of Meteorology refers to this system as Tropical Low 10U.

• Tropical cyclone forecast page

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

• Outlook discussion

Satellite imagery

Storm-specific imagery

• Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared

• Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared

• Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)

• Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor

• CIMSS: Multiple bands

• RAMMB: Multiple bands

• Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands

Regional imagery

Himawari

• CIMSS: Enhanced Infrared

• CIMSS: Water vapor

• CIMSS: Visible

• Weathernerds: Southern Pacific

Analysis graphics and data

Wind analyses

• EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data

Sea-surface Temperatures

• NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts

• Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis

Model guidance

Storm-specific guidance

• Tropical Tidbits

• University of Albany

• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

• Weather Nerds

Regional single-model guidance

• Tropical Tidbits: GFS

• Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

• Tropical Tidbits: CMC

• Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

• GEFS (120 hours)

• ECENS (120 hours)

If it's that active now, imagine June through August.

https://preview.redd.it/rz2cchyubync1.png?width=1284&format=png&auto=webp&s=38193e570266ca73be1450552465d3e08a535145

I have never really heard of this storm before, as it seemms to have been sandwitched in between Hurricane Gustav, and Hurricane Ike that year, but from what I have read, Hanna effected the East Coast, and caused some power outages? What can you tell me about this storm?

Latest observation

Observational data is no longer available for this system.

Official forecasts

Meteo France is no longer issuing advisory or forecast products for this system.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is no longer issuing advisory or forecast products for this system.

Official information

Meteo France (RSMC Reunion)

• Homepage

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

• Homepage

Radar imagery

Not available

Radar imagery is no longer available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Storm-specific satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Meteosat

• CIMSS: Enhanced Infrared

• CIMSS: Water vapor

• CIMSS: Visible (true color)

Analysis products

Best track data

• NOAA SSD

Wind analysis and storm intensity estimation products

• NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins

• NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History

• NESDIS: Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis

• CIMSS: Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)

• CIMSS: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus (SATCON)

• CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History

• EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data

Sea-surface temperature analysis products

• NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts

• Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis

Model products

Storm-specific model guidance

Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

• Tropical Tidbits: GFS

• Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

• Tropical Tidbits: CMC

• Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

• Weathernerds: GEFS (120 hours)

• Weathernerds: ECENS (120 hours)

Latest Observation

Last updated: Monday, 11 March — 6:00 AM Fiji Time (FJT; 18:00 UTC)

Official information

Fiji Meteorological Service

NOTE: The Fiji Meteorological Service refers to this system as Tropical Depression 11F.

• FMS homepage

• Tropical outlook

• Tropical disturbance summary

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

• Outlook discussion

Satellite imagery

Storm-specific imagery

• Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared

• Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared

• Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)

• Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor

• CIMSS: Multiple bands

• RAMMB: Multiple bands

• Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands

Regional imagery

Himawari

• CIMSS: Enhanced Infrared

• CIMSS: Water vapor

• CIMSS: Visible

• Weathernerds: Southern Pacific

Analysis graphics and data

Wind analyses

• EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data

Sea-surface Temperatures

• NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts

• Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis

Model guidance

Storm-specific guidance

• Tropical Tidbits

• University of Albany

• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

• Weather Nerds

Regional single-model guidance

• Tropical Tidbits: GFS

• Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

• Tropical Tidbits: CMC

• Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

• GEFS (120 hours)

• ECENS (120 hours)

Just making a nerd post regarding currently observed SST changes in the equatorial Pacific.

To begin with, back in early January and in association with the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a burst of strong easterlies developed over the Western Pacific.

https://i.imgur.com/JHLeyAQ.gif. This is a 90-day equatorial Pacific hovmoller depicting zonal (east-west) wind anomalies close to the surface (850mb). Purple represents anomalous easterlies, or strong trades. Red represents anomalous westerlies, or weak trades. Note the easterly wind burst currently underway now.

This trade burst generated an oceanic upwelling Kelvin wave, which propagates eastward along the Pacific thermocline over the course of a month or two. Upwelling KWs lift the thermocline as they travel, bringing cooler water closer to the surface. This erodes El Nino-induced warmth and its fuel.

https://i.imgur.com/KSlZeJo.gif. This is a chart of the depth of the Pacific thermocline (20 C isotherm) over the last year. Cool shading represents 20 C waters being closer to the surface, warm shading the opposite; deeper. Again, we can observe this upwelling Kelvin wave as a wave that has propagated eastward at depth. It has traveled to the Eastern Pacific where it is now being forced to surface, pulling colder water with it.

https://i.imgur.com/83mGUC6.gif This chart is essentially a cross-section of the Pacific subsurface. We see that very cold 20 C water is just below the surface in the Eastern Pacific. Remaining El Nino warmth is extremely shallow and is eroding.

And now, here are some gifs showing the beginning of the surfacing. Watch as much colder waters dramatically erupt along the equator, signaling the beginning of the end of El Nino. Apologies, imgur refused to upload these.

https://gifyu.com/image/SUTwM

https://gifyu.com/image/SUTwT

In summary, we see the beginnings of the transition away from El Nino at least regarding the ocean. NOAA gives a 75% chance of La Nina developing by peak hurricane season in August-October.

I'm in NE FL, been here for years but with increasing numbers of storms along with stronger storms that intensify quicker, and the La Niña setting in; I'm wanting advice from you all. I'm sandwiched between the ocean and a large river which already had insane flooding during previous storms.

I live in a crappy apartment...on the first floor. Although we could flee, we couldn't afford motels or anything so that's a last resort.

I'm mainly asking for worst case scenario advice but everything helps. I'd like to be somewhat more sure my family is protected. Currently I got a "float box" as I call it to preserve our valuables; it's a plastic container with pool noodles strapped to it that we'd put our things in and sealing it before fleeing. I would love to get more niche advice that you all have tried or know of.

Thank you all and stay safe.

My example would be Hurricane Lee from last year, alot of predictions on how it was going to make landfall in Boston or New York City, but in the end, did nothing but drop a little rain on the East Coast.

I'm not liking this idea from the EURO model for the Caribbean especially, the strong N.Atlantic Ridge, much lower sea level pressure, wide parts of the area in positive anomaly , will the islands (E.Caribbean - Greater Antilles) get a major hurricane impact for the first time this decade?

What are y'all first reaction upon seeing this, for those who understand it?

https://preview.redd.it/2ph6tpdfwimc1.png?width=746&format=png&auto=webp&s=5756a6ab600cad8e8f5aecae7ffdf90e6eebc0fe

https://preview.redd.it/lwgonnfewimc1.png?width=746&format=png&auto=webp&s=eeb67eadb83a790c01b522bba494ad1dcf5af713

https://preview.redd.it/vb068x2dwimc1.png?width=746&format=png&auto=webp&s=d7e19a75711d48da9c02134ddde77f5024b0acd4