Karate, Judo, and Mongolian Wrestling backgrounds are very common in Sumo. But there’s a video of Konishiki saying Aikido can be found within Sumo and even in the Anime Hinomaru Zumo there’s a character whose background was in Aikido.

Following sumo as a foreigner is quite hard without being resourceful. How do you follow it? By the way, I’m from the Philippines, and I watch sumo through NHK highlights. Any alternative recommendations?

Hi, I'm someone who's kinda familiar with martial arts in general (did a little wrestling in high school myself) but certainly not with sumo, and I find the sheer pace of sumo bouts is a little bit mind-boggling. There's rarely a moment of disengagement or breathing except for between bouts.

What about the sumo makes the rikishi always push forward with so little respite? Is it the small size of the arena? The allowance of certain strikes and pushing? The short length of matches? Something else?

https://x.com/JohnGunningSumo/status/1852566781635785195

It's open, please enter :)

Choose three rikishi and how many wins you think each will finish with. The winner is determined by the lowest deviation from the sum of the total wins. Winners receive a special prize compliments of tegatastore.com. Please note due to Terunofuji's ongoing health concerns we've taken him out of the competition this time around.

https://forms.gle/XyHn1wMwe6YhnVb47

Happy Friday all!

It's that time again. This week's post is on previewing the men that might be hoping to make Yokozuna and Ozeki sooner or later. It's a deeper crowd than I expected and I found a couple instances to use some graphs from previous posts too. I explain the basic criteria for the ranks and link to the older ones that have more depth too. Come learn about what it takes to make the top two ranks, and my analysis of the men looking to do that. Can Onosato overcome the Ozeki debut hangover?

https://preview.redd.it/0y7e8kfxfcyd1.png?width=1010&format=png&auto=webp&s=9c28e59358fb466d6a06b288e7ad1741e30b74ad

https://ozekianalytics.substack.com/publish/posts/detail/151030155/share-center

As a note, I did not do the Banzuke preview this time around as I haven't had the time to implement the updates I still want to incorporate. Next week you can expect a piece covering retirement odds and interesting wrestlers and Makuuchi debutants.

Slightly unrelated but I consider this project to also be about public education on statistics. I think we can all learn how to think a bit better about numbers, which is quite important as they affect so much of our lives (and only increasingly more so). Given there was just an election in Japan and one upcoming in America, I took a look at polling and prediction markets. These are both non-partisan pieces meant to make you a bit smarter about how these things work and also how you can think about them. If that sounds interesting, or if you'd like to learn about auto-correlated errors or Efficient Market Hypothesis (I'm putting the hard sell on here haha) then I'd say they're worth a look.

https://ozekianalytics.substack.com/p/election-polling-and-aggregation

https://ozekianalytics.substack.com/p/the-problem-with-prediction-markets

If you're interested the blog is and will always remain free but I am up to 98 subscribers so if you want a shot at being lucky 100 then that's available. Jokes aside I'm incredibly pleased how it's gone this year. I really appreciate the engagement and learning we've done. I've been a bit busier with a few other things but I can promise there's still tons more to come.

Thanks for reading folks and best of luck for any of your sumo predictions. Do you think Onosato can overcome the Ozeki debut hangover? Personally I think he can, although I'm probably a bit bearish on him getting 13 wins again this time around.

Probably an over done topic at this point. But who are you top 5 contenders for this months Basho?

On Konishiki - Weak Times Demand Strong Men

Konishiki promoted in 1987 to the rank of Ozeki, this was the first promotion to Ozeki in over four years, with the last Ozeki to rise being Hokutenyu in 1983.

Well, not exactly: While Konishiki was four years apart from the previous Ozeki, there had been three others promoted between 1983 and his promotion in 1987. Those three others were Onokuni, Kitao, and Hokutoumi, the 62nd, 60th, and 61st Yokozunas respectively (admittedly Kitao was Futahaguro who does not deserve his reputation); indeed, the very basho Konishiki promoted to Ozeki was the one Hokutoumi received his rope.

All this meant that Konishiki promoted to Ozeki in May of 1987 after a rather successful run at Sekiwake, straight into this lot:

• At Yokozuna: Freshly-promoted Hokutoumi - who promoted to Yokozuna as Konishiki did to Ozeki

• Futahaguro: One of the "worst" Yokozuna to ever wrestle - but who is far more successful than his reputation

• At Ozeki: Onokuni - the zensho winner who would make Yokozuna later in the year

• Also at Ozeki: Hokutenyu and Asashio Taro IV: Veterans who had done well to remain somewhat competitive

• At Sekiwake: Asahifuji - The eventual 63rd Yokozuna and future Isegahama - who'd also make Ozeki within the year

So all this makes for a hostile roster for a new Ozeki. Four Yokozuna-tier opponents, even with Futahaguro leaving later, is a lot.

There's also just one more "small" problem:

• The 58th Yokozuna Chiyonofuji - By 1987, Chiyonofuji was at 20 Yushos - he has 10 whole Yusho left in him before his future retirement in 1991. That's as many left to go than Akebono did in his entire career. Chiyonofuji is the greatest technician to ever step on the dohyo and to win a Yusho when he is around is not far off having to go through Hakuho.

In what should probably not be a spoiler for those who read my first article, this isn't about an Ozeki (Takakeisho) in a lull in competition, but an Ozeki promoting into a four-Yokozuna era and the immediate aftermath of the collapse of that era.

In short: Konishiki has parachuted right into the middle of a meat grinder, and unfortunately for him, he's the meat - He's got Yokozuna above him, beside him. and right below him.

It's time to once again ask the question: How good was Konishiki actually?

Establishing the List

Let's run the list of Ozeki in the era of Konishiki. I've chosen the year 1974 as my start point and ending in 2003 for my comparisons here, with my landmarks being the start of the Kitanoumi era, and the end of the Takanohana era, all Ozeki promoted between those dates make the list.

Let's examine the timeframe spanning three major eras: Kitanoumi, Chiyonofuji, and Takanohana

• 1974 is the start of Kitanoumi's reign, he'd retire in 1985 but would have won 22 of his 24 by 1982

** Wajima was his immediate preceding Yokozuna, and would be Kitanoumi's primary competition in this time, winning 15 ** He'd also have Wakanohana Kanji II and Mienoumi as Yokozuna

• Chiyonofuji took over when Kitanoumi finally ran out of gas in 1982, he'd go on to keep winning in 1990 before retiring in early 1991.

** In this era we have Takanosato, Akebono, Hokutoumi, Onokuni, and Asahifuji; Hokutoumi being the only one to really win a lot at 8 Yusho

• After a short lull from in 1992 we have Akebono in 93 and Takanohana Koji in 94 joining him the year after. Both of their careers would run until the early 2000's, with Takanohana retiring in 2003

** Musashimaru promotes in 1999, he wins a lot, Wakanohana Masaru promotes om 1998 winning a little ;ess

• Finally in 2003, we see a single Yokozuna stand alone - Asashoryu. Hakuho doesn't promote until 2007 - the only Ozeki on our list whose career overlaps with Hakuho's Yokozuna reign are Choyotaikai and Kaio. ** By the end of our timeframe, we're seeing Harumafuji, Kakuryu, and Kisenosato all in the top division. though they aren't Yokozuna yet.

In chronological order are our sixteen Ozeki:

Kitanoumi era:

• Kaiketsu
• Asahikuni
• Masuiyama

Chiyonofuji era:

• Kotokaze
• Wakashimazu
• Asashio Taro IV
• Hokutenyu
• Konishiki

Takanohana era:

• Kirishima Kazuhiro (Kirishima I)
• Takanonami
• Chiyotaikai
• Dejima
• Musoyama
• Miyabiyama

Mostly Asashoryu era, but started in Takanohana

• Kaio
• Tochiazuma

As with my usual methodology, we'll explore only those who peaked at Ozeki only for now, then we'll explore the Yokozuna later on. Evaluations will be of their performance at the rank and as "Ozekiwake", for Yushos, all count, including those not won as Ozeki. Once again, kyujo tournaments count as 0 wins; Ozeki already retain their rank upon a missed tournament, to excuse them for an injury would be granting an unnecessary privilege to an already privileged class.

Like with my previous evaluation, I'm going to group them up based on my perception BEFORE analysis - this acts as my hypothesis, and allows me to play along at home to see how the data match up.

• Fantastic: Takanonami, Kaio, Konishiki, Kotokaze
• Good: Kirishima I, Hokutenyu, Asashio Taro IV
• Average: Dejima, Wakashimazu, Chiyotaikai
• Meh Musoyama, Tochiazuma, Asahikuni
• Yikes: Kaiketsu, Miyabiyama, Masuiyama

Right away you can see that this group is stacked, I am thrilled that I get to highlight some stellar Ozeki here, Takanonami and Kotokaze being amongst them; while Chiyotaikai has been demoted after my previous evaluation of his performance as being.... mediocre.

The Win-Loss Record

So as always, let's start with the simplest way and most effective way to determine a rikishi's strength relative to their time frame: Do they win bouts?

So how does Konishiki stand? He's pretty good! 8.85's not just solid, it's great - he scores 8 or fewer in just under a third of all his tournaments (and 7 or less in just 20% of them). Better still, he also puts up over 10 wins in 18 of his 39 tournaments. He's not just great, he's consistent too.

He's beaten here by Wakashimazu, Kotokaze, Takanonami, and Kirishima I, all excellent Ozeki in their own right. Perhaps the focus on this group should be on Kotokaze, Wakashimazu, and Kirishima I in particular, and we'll discuss them with a year-on-year analysis in depth to better contextualize Konishiki.

Strap in, because this year on year analysis is going to be a BIG one.

Year-On-Year

Over this next section, I'll be discussing Baruto as a major reference point. Baruto lasted just 15 basho at Ozeki, but those 15 saw him put up some of the highest average wins of any Ozeki in a two year period, even those who outlasted him at the rank, presumably he subscribed to the theory that he was here for a good time, not a long time.

Kotokaze and Wakashimazu were promoted in 1981 and 1983 and retired in 1985 and 1987. Wakashimazu actually retires in Konishiki's first tournament at Ozeki, but otherwise these two faced a very similar crowd to Konishiki's early days.

Kotokaze's run is extremely similar to Baruto - managing an even higher mean wins per basho and a higher percentage of 10 wins or more, ending in a similar unfortunate fashion - neither of them were ever kadoban until until a career-ending injury.

Wakashimazu was similar to Kotokaze, he had an even higher 11.4 in his first two years, but unlike Kotokaze and Baruto, would fall off hard after his second year, nonetheless managing to lumber on into his fourth and fifth year.

Konishiki seems to have gone alright, he had a great 1st, 3rd, and 5th year, with a pretty decent fourth year, but this belies a string of performances so special it could have its own article.

On a trivia side note, Kotokaze would later become Oguruma Oyakata, who Kotoeko has recently taken over from.

On Kirishima I

Kirishima I is, almost to a day, the perfect comparison to Konishiki, they made their debut in Makuuchi together in Nagoya 1984, they were Ozeki together from 1990 when Kirishima made it to the rank, and they both fought on after their time at the rank and met yet again in Maegashira after their demotions. They ended up with an equal record against each other, a fine demonstration of how evenly matched they were. The two of them even held the top of the banzuke in the short period following the retirement of Hokutoumi.

After sumo, the two of them have remained close personal friends, Konishiki was even at the now-Michinoku Oyakata's retirement!

It's most fitting therefore, that we get to examine the two of them together.

Kirishima I once again mirrored Baruto almost exactly, with the exact same number of wins as Baruto in his first year, then a great second year, then injuring out. Unlike Baruto, Kotokaze, and Wakashimazu though, he elected to fight in in the rank-and-file as mentioned earlier.

Despite his higher wins per basho than Konishiki, this is mostly because Konishiki had a slightly longer period in decline, his best years exceed Kirishima and he was by far the better rikishi, but knowing Konishiki, he would never acknowledge that fact.

On Takanonami

Takanonami came onto the scene in late 1994, too late to join Konishiki at the rank, but more than early enough that you can see both Maegashira Takanonami against the Ozeki Konishiki, and also Ozeki Takanonami against Maegashira Konishiki.

Takanonami never seemed to run out of gas ever, he started strong, and remained consistently strong, maintaining an excellent level of performance.

As Ozeki from 1994 until 2000, he had an amazing run, benefiting quite a bit from his match scheduling. Being of Futagoyama stable meant that he never had to face Takanohana or Wakanohana - the only Yokozuna to challenge him were Akebono and later on, Musashimaru.

Given the way Takanonami's playoffs went though, he might actually have gotten the worse end of the deal here, avoiding Takanohana might actually have WORSENED his chances at a Yusho.

We'll discuss this again later in Strength of Schedule, but overall, Takanonami was by all metrics excellent and one of the best Ozeki we've ever seen.

Konishiki

With that we finally arrive at Konishiki, the central subject of this article

Konishiki, comparing up, doesn't really get off the ground that early as an Ozeki, he has an alright but not super impressive first year, and he has a howler of a second year, going kadoban twice in three basho. He turns in a dreadful 3-12 in Aki '88 due to an injury, however, he nonetheless finishes the basho and fights all 15 days - this is tied for the second-worst performance by an Ozeki who fought all 15 days, only exceeded by Terunofuji

Early into his third year he goes kadoban yet again with 5 wins, once again fighting all 15 days in Aki 1989, he keeps on fighting despite being ALREADY makekoshi.

Konishiki won his first Yusho with 14 wins in Kyushu 89 against a (still active!) Chiyonofuji and Hokutoumi and proceeds to perform excellently for a year, eventually petering out and having to sit out with an injury in Hatsu of 1991.

But this is not what we're here to discuss, or what sparked this article, and what could honestly have had an entire article written JUST ABOUT IT. We're here to talk about what happens when Konishiki returns starting in Summer of '91:

The Meat Bomb fucking drops

Konishiki goes 14 in Natsu (May) 1991. but that's not enough for a Yusho as Asahifuji denies him in the playoff...

May in Japan is oft-depicted with calm weather, sunny days, and more; but it's also characterized by the cherry blossoms beginning to fall. It's not the warmth of a midday breeze, but rather the realization that the summer sun is, in fact, a deadly lazer.

Japanese summer heat waves are deadly, summer temperatures with the humidity of the sea breeze result in hundreds of deaths a year, most being, extremely tragically, of the elderly at home. Similarly, the Yokozuna began to fall one after another:

• Onokuni had been out since March and would retire in July
• Chiyonofuji had been at Natsu 91... for four bouts, and retired on day 5, at the ripe old age of 36
• Asahifuji, after denying Konishiki, would only meet him once more and never complete another tournament
• Hokutoumi - who had promoted to Yokozuna when Konishiki made Ozeki - would fight just one more full basho

Over the course of these six tournaments, Yokozuna would go from four in number to none, completing just three tournaments between all of them. Konishiki was only a bit younger than Onokuni was, but he would fight on nonetheless.

Pay attention Takakeisho fans: THIS is what an unopposed Ozeki looks like.

All in all, after the 14D, Konishiki would go 12J, 11, 13Y, 12, and 13Y. (J being a Junyusho, D being a playoff loss, and Y being an outright yusho). That's two Yusho, 1 playoff loss, 1 Junyusho, and two more 11 and 12s.

• This is 75 wins in 90: an 83% win rate
• It's also 6 tournaments of 11 or more wins in a row - The only Ozeki to have done it are Kotokaze and Wakashimazu, and even then neither of them came close to the 12.5 win average Konishiki put up here

** Wakashimazu managed 12.1

• Most Yokozuna do have runs like this every now and then, but there's a decent number who don't - Kakuryu, Harumafuji, Wakanohana, Onokuni are amongst them

Rikishi who managed 11 wins or more for 6 consecutive Yusho

Konishiki from Natsu 1991-1992 is not the greatest year of any Ozeki in the various studies we've done, it is the greatest 12 month streak of any rikishi other than a Yokozuna ever.

This performance eclipses the form some Ozeki were in when they DID promote to Yokozuna. As an example, Hokutoumi promoted after 5 tournaments with a 12Y and 13J, Asahifuji had a similar run of 12.5 wins featuring FIVE junyushos in a row, but it wasn't until two 14-1's that he earned his rope.

But Konishiki never makes Yokozuna.

Why didn't Konishiki promote? Two reasons: Firstly, he never quite matched up two in a row, and secondly, this is the period IMMEDIATELY after the Futahaguro fiasco - promotion rules were at the strictest in quite a long while, nobody wanted a repeat of that.

Instead, let's look at the 12 win tournament in Hatsu 1992, the one between his second and third Yusho.

Had Konishiki had managed a Junyusho in Hatsu 1992, I have no doubt that he would have been promoted Yokozuna. He had 3 losses that tournament, the first was to Tochinowaka, someone who at the time he had a 16-8 advantage over; the second was to Akinoshima, to whom Konishiki had a 6-12 DISadvantage history with...

His third (but chronologically second) loss was to a wrestler he had never lost to, and whom he had beat in the previous 5 basho. Unfortunately for Konishiki, this was Takahanada - the eventual champion, and the future Takanohana.

The basho from that Hatsu 1992

The match against Takanohana

One twist of Takanohana's back, one twist of fate for Konishiki.

Strength of Schedule

Konishiki won three Yusho, and faced two Yokozuna in his three Yusho and four Ozeki; in the words of Comrade Dyatlov, not great, not terrible. Some Ozeki had to face a lot more in a single one (Kotoshogiku later on had to fight 3 and 2 in a single basho). It's a little below what one would expect from a full roster of Yokozuna, but at least is a fair number - and certainly made up for by him having to face Musashimaru, Wakahanada, Takahanada, and Akebono all in their pre-Ozeki days.

Takanonami's numbers up there are a bit funny, because he actually only fought two Ozeki total in his Yusho proper, and 0 Yokozuna 2 Ozeki looks really poor. Fortunately for him in a semi-scientific analysis 25 years later and almost a decade after his passing, he did fight Takanohana twice as both those Yusho involved playoffs against Takanohana, leaving Wakanohana as the only Yokozuna he never truly went against.

One would think that being in the same stable as the Yokozuna would be beneficial by avoiding a loss, but it goes both ways. Avoiding a Yokozuna is good for a kachi-koshi, but it's a weakness when chasing a Yusho as one never gets to fight a "two point bout" against the Yokozuna. Takanohana was therefore unopposed by one of the few rikishi who could actually pose a serious threat to him.

All in all, not too bad for Konishiki.

Defending your Ground

As with the previous article, we compare how the Ozeki performed against Komusubi and Sekiwake. I prefer to use this group as a comparison, Komusubi and Sekiwake generally have a better turnover than Ozeki, and tend to offer a more holistic comparison rather than just comparing Ozeki against each other.

Of course, this does run into some issues where you have future Yokozuna who lingered in the ranks longer (think Kisenosato) rather than promoting out quick, so take these numbers with a slight grain of salt.

That's good, that's really, really good. Konishiki held his position tremendously well until the later years, especially given the rise of the four Yokozuna to be, with a great record against the eventual dominant force that was Takanohana in his time at Ozeki.

There really isn't much to say here, Ozeki sumo is winning sumo, and Konishiki just wins.

The Kadoban Count

Lastly we examine the Kadoban rate, the metric which absolutely sunk Takakeisho last time. Konishiki's well below average here on all counts, even with his later injuries and future weight gain issues, he stayed fit in the rank.

Many of our top performers here also do well in this, Takanonami did remarkably well, as did Kotokaze until he didn't. Kaio was basically right on average at 23% Kadoban, mostly nearing the end of his career.

How do the Yokozuna compare?

Unlike with the Takakeisho examination where even Baruto's hot streak was below even the weaker Yokozuna, we have a LOT to discuss here: Futahaguro's fiasco occured during this time frame sparking we saw a major shift in the way Yokozuna were promoted: there was no strict "two yusho or equivalent" rule or even guideline prior to that.

The first thing we notice is that we have THREE Ozeki above the 9 win average: Kotokaze, Kirishima, Takanonami. Konishiki himself is at 8.8, Wakashimazu is at 8.9! This group is really, really, really cracked by today's standards.

Nonetheless, all still lag behind most Yokozuna of the time: Hokutoumi, Onokuni, Asahifuji all had 11 or more wins AVERAGE (Onokuni at 10.7), Takanohana is firmly in the the "don't even try" basket, and quite a few more of them sprinted through Ozeki. The sole Yokozuna any of this group match up to is Wakanohana at 9, and he wouldn't promote until 1998.

At their best streaks though, we've already discussed Konishiki managing 12.5 and Wakashimazu at 12.1, Kotokaze had a 12 month high of 11.5, Takanonami was consistent but made out at 11.6.

The peaks of this group are stellar and very, very high, it's very possible that in another parallel universe, Konishiki, Wakashimazu, and Takanonami make it to Yokozuna. It's not hard to imagine Takanonami making it in 1996 before being stopped by Musashimaru, or Wakashimazu in 1984, or Konishiki beating Takanohana to seal his two-in-a-row.

Of course, we're talking in hypotheticals here, there's a universe where Moriurara becomes the 75th universe at age 45 (this isn't it). To that end, we can only imagine what might have been, rue what didn't happen, and celebrate what did happen.

Conclusions

So... How good was Konishiki actually? I came into this article with the predisposition of "He was close to Yokozuna but his later performance showed he was vulnerable and could be exploited, and ultimately his peak was Ozeki". What I did not expect was to conclude that Konishiki from 1991-1992 is the strongest ever rikishi never to make Yokozuna.

Konishiki was more than just great, he was amazing. But Yokozuna tier? The hypothetical Yokozuna Konishiki would have handed out SEVEN kinboshi in that year - 4 of the 7 of those could be chalked down to Wakanohana and Takanohana, with the 3 others being eventual Sekiwake, but that's still a lot of gold stars.... but even that's not out of the ordinary - Akebono himself would do the same and so would other Yokozuna.

The decision not to give him the rank was indeed vindicated by history, Konishiki did later prove to be vulnerable and did not met the criteria to be promoted. In the stringent demands of the time, he barely missed out, for better or for worse.

While Takamiyama laid the way for foreign sekitori, Konishiki pushed that envelope out to the rank of Ozeki. Konishiki came so close to becoming the first foreign Yokozuna and ultimately failed, but the legacy he left as the first foreign Ozeki is one that will likely last forever. It would be in his footsteps that that another Hawaiian would climb one step further and finally reach the promised land.

But that's another story, for another time.

I've often wondered, but have never researched this....mostly because I don't know who the attendants are -

You get to spend more time around the top level Rikishi, which could be motivating, but the time it takes has to take you away from things that could help you improve.

Is there a consensus to how attendants perform or how they are chosen?

Thanks!

Hey everyone just wanted to give a update. So our local club has grown a lot over the past few months and we have moved into a dojo in the Orlando area! Also just as cool we have been pretty lucky to have former Maegashira1 pro Wakanohō helping out with our club coaching us and giving advance. Posting a little video below of us introducing our new space, if anyone’s interested comment and reach out!

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DBtu0ZbJH_w/?igsh=Y290bXdrdTB6NGhy

What are your thought about him now that he reached Makuuchi.

I am not that in depth about sumo. I just enjoy the matches and mostly watch smaller recaps sicne i dont have the time to rewatch every bout or have time to watch every day.

But the few bouts i saw about him gives me somehow Chiyonofuji vibes. Feels like he has the same killerinstinct.

I really hope he doesnt fall out of Makuuchi.

Hey everyone! We have a pretty simple Basho Contest - make your picks from each bracket, rack up the wins, and maybe be our first player to reach Yokozuna...? Who knows!

More information can be found here, and feel free to ask any questions you might have.

We hope to see you there. Thanks! =)

Prior posts:

1. [Elo Insights] Pt.1: Introduction, The Elo-System & Analyzing Sumo Divisions in Depth
2. [Elo Insights] Pt.2: The Golden Age of Sumo - an Analysis of the San'yaku over Time

Today we're finally ready to take a closer look at Sumo's Greats. Like before, I am using the dataset that goes back to 1958, covering only Sekitori, for a total of ~380.000 calculated Elo values. As the values are still adjusting from the initially set ones for the first two years, the cut-off for my analysis is 1960. The nature of a ranking like this demands looking at entire careers, though, so fighters that were already highly ranked before 1960 are often inaccurate, making the effective cut-off even later, around 1963-1964.

Disclaimers

1) This is not a "strongest wrestler"-ranking! The ranking is best interpreted as "most competitive/dominant for their time", not as "strongest overall". Only because someone in 1960 has a high Elo doesn't mean they can beat someone in 2010 with a lower Elo. Like all sports, Sumo evolved over time. Like for all sports, it's fair to assume that the bar has been raised significantly over the last 60 years.

The questions we can answer using this my methods are: "How strong were the best Yokozuna compared to the other fighters of their time? How far ahead were they?"

2) Forget about Yusho count and winning records! If you've read the last post (link above), and if you're familiar with the history of Sumo, you know that the level of competition at the top doesn't always stay the same. This is obvious if you just go ahead and count how many active Yokozuna there are at a given time, but it's even more obvious using Elo and shows up very clearly in the data. There are basho, years, and even decades with stronger and weaker competition.

Therefore, it is entirely possible for a Yokozuna to collect a bunch of Yusho in a time of weaker competition, which is still impressive of course, but it doesn't necessarily result in a higher Elo than having half as many Yusho during a time when you need to throw 3 other Yokozuna out of the ring to even have a chance at a single tournament win.

For this reason, there are Yokozuna that have relatively few Yusho that are ranked much higher than you'd expect them to, simply because they were active in an era of intense competition. Likewise there are Yokozuna with many Yusho that are ranked much lower than you'd think, because they took full advantage of weak periods.

Good examples are Tamanoumi, who is ranked much higher than most would expect (he was crushing it during perhaps the most competitive time in Sumo), and Akebono who is ranked lower than most would think (he took advantage of a period of weak competition).

There is a neat way to visualise this. In the last post I've shared a chart that shows the level of competition at the top, as derived from a weighted Elo average of the top 7 fighters each year. What I didn't share last post is the equivalent chart that looks at every single basho (although I did highlight a few individual basho), allowing for an even more detailled look at the history of sumo. Marking the tournament wins for a few particular Yokozuna gives us an idea why, for example, Akebono ranks far below Tamanoumi despite having almost twice as many tournament victories than him.

The more red you see, the stronger the top-fighters were in that particular basho. Tamanoumi has only 6 victories, but managed to win the most competitive tournament of all time - 1971-03! Compared to that, most of Akebono's wins were during a time with a tragic lack of strong competition.

A more recent and even more extreme example of this is Terunofuji who ranks below Kisenosato despite having 5x as many Yusho. Kisenosato collected an impressive number of Jun-Yusho (not pictured) in VERY competitive tourmanents, and generally stood his ground against far stronger competition, which makes him come out on top. Terunofuji got most of his Yusho facing down a flagging roster of Ozeki.

Win-ratios and winning streaks are often misleading for the same reason.

A Brief Look at Career Trajectories

Before we get to the final ranking, let's look at a few career trajectories. These show the Elo-progression, with all salaried division fights for a particular fighter in order. To make it a bit more interesting, I'm not going to share who is who! Pictured are five Yokozuna. If you need a hint, feel free to read the spoilers~

• Hakuho, >!arguably the greatest Yokozuna of all time!<
• Terunofuji, >!who had the greatest comeback of all time!<
• Akebono, >!a strong Yokozuna who ranks somewhere in the middle !<
• Tamanoumi, >!who had a shot at becoming one of the greatest wrestlers, rivalling Taiho and Hakuho, but unexpectedly died at age 27!<
• Futahaguro, >!whose wikipedia page describes him as a "great embarrassment to the sumo establishment"!<

can you guess who is who?

Solution:

• Red: >!Futahaguro!<
• Black: >!Hakuho!<
• Pink: >!Terunofuji!<
• Blue: >!Akebono!<
• Yellow: >!Tamanoumi!<

The Ranking

The task is now to take these trajectories and convert them to a ranking that makes sense. There are multiple ways to go about this, but I've decided on a composite score that takes multiple different facets of "Sumo-Greatness" into account.

The weighting of the categories that make up the composite score is backed by statistical reasoning, but at heart all such rankings must include some degree of subjectivity. I hope that being transparent about my reasoning makes the ranking more understandable and credible. In the end all categories are still Elo-based, so this is likely as close to an "objective ranking" as you can get, insofar as such a thing can even exist. The weights and categories are as follows:

1. Peak-rating (10%): The average of the highest 15 Elo values that the respective fighter has ever achieved, representing one basho. A lucky streak can inflate this value somewhat, so the weight is lower at only 10%. Still a decent measure of peak skill, but somewhat lacking in accuracy.
2. Best sustained form (50%): This takes the highest 90 values and averages them, representing 1 year - this will fairly accurately show the peak form that the fighter has achieved. There are some odd cases like Terunofuji, where fighters have multiple peaks that are spread out across their careers, but usually fighters will hit these values in one continuous stretch.
3. Mid-term success (30%): Taking the best 270 values and averaging them, representing 3 years - following the same logic, and because I believe that a Yokozuna's staying power at the top is important to their legacy.
4. Long-term success (10%): Taking the best 540 values and averaging them, representing 6 years - In my opinion, Yokozuna that managed to keep a great form over a very long time deserve an additional boost to their rating. Also lower weight, as some wrestlers didn't manage to stay in the top two divsions for 6 whole years, which makes this category a little problematic.

For what it's worth, the top 3 will always be the top 3 no matter what weights I choose, as they are neatly in that very same order across all categories. Generally, changing the weights doesn't actually change the ranking too much, as there are pretty strong correlations between the categories, which makes sense in retrospect. If you disagree with the weights (and you are more than free to! I believe that there are good arguments for changing them!), just know that the ranking as it is below is pretty robust. A fighter with a strong 1-Year average usually also has a very strong 3-Year average, etc.

This shows the composite scores for All Yokozuna and (somewhat arbitrarily) the top7 Ozeki, marked in a lighter shade of red.

There are another 13 Ozeki interspersed between Onokuni and Wakanohana (including Takayasu at 1623!), but listing them all would make the chart too large, so I chose not to. Kaio is known for his incredible longevity and often considered "the best Ozeki". He does indeed beat all other Ozeki in the long-term success category (6 years), and the gap grows even larger if you extend the category further to 10 years, but with the weights as they are, there's actually 3 other Ozeki that rank higher than he does.

To absolutely no ones surprise, Hakuho is at the top. He and Taiho are definitely in a category of their own. I assume that Futabayama (the current recordholder for most consecutive wins) would also be close to them, but as the data only goes back to the 1950s, he's not part of the ranking.

Kitanoumi takes a very clear third place, which was surprising to me given how little he is talked about. He is third in all categories.

Asashoryu and Tamanoumi share 4th place. Which one of them comes out on top depends on the weights - Tamanoumi peaked far higher and has a decent edge for best sustained form. Asashoryu has much more staying-power. Considering Tamanoumi's tragic death at the very peak of his career, it is pretty much a given he could've attained a much higher score, so in my mind he's always ahead of Asashoryu. Asashoryu's career was also cut short, but unlike Tamanoumi, he was likely already past his peak then.

Tables, Tables, Tables

Here, we see the rankings in a bit more detail. We'll first look at only Yokozuna, then only at Ozeki, and so on.

The composite score is, as I've described before, a weighted average of the 4 categories that follow in the columns afterwards. Peak Elo (15 highest values), 1-Y-Peak (90 highest), 3-Y (270), and 6-Y (540).

Logically, the elo values decrease as we look at longer and longer stretches of time.

In the last few columns you can see where they rank overall, and for each respective category. Tamanoumi, for example, ranks pretty badly in the 6Y-category (12th), but does very well for Peak Elo (4th).

Red names are unreliable, as they are too close to the 1960 data-cutoff, invalidating the 3-Year and 6-Year categories. Purple names are still active, and are thus bound to increase their score.

Since the composite score is a mix of different "top n"-averages, it can only increase over time and never decrease - that is, as long as you already have over 540 values to be averaged. However, as the weight of the 6-Y category is so low, a negative change, if it ever happens, is usually small. The rule is: As long as you're still active, your score will usually stay the same, or improve.

Lots of active fighters here - their values are all projected to go up over time. Yes, even Shodai's!

The recently retired Takakeisho (seing his name in black hurts) is in the middle of the field. Just like Yokozuna Yusho, Ozeki Yusho can be misleading as well, and the wins that Takakeisho got, he got during a time where there was a decisive lack of strong competition. He also had an incredibly short career. If he had stayed healthy for longer, I suspect that he could've climbed quite a lot higher. But it was not meant to be.

Too many Sekiwake to show them in one image. Of the currently active guys, not pictured are: Takarafuji (1438), Takanosho (1426), Meisei (1400), Onosato (1389)

The lowest ranked Sekiwake is an incredible outlier. Koboyama Daizo, at a mindbending 1277 (!!) - you usually see this kind of score for wrestlers who peak between M1 and M6. How did he get promoted to Sekiwake? Funny story.

He had a really good basho at M7 (10-5), and every single Komusubi and Sekiwake happened to have a losing record that very same basho. But not only that, ALL M1 and M2s ALSO had losing records. And none of them were close either, the best one was 6-9. That's 8 fighters having incredibly poor tournaments by random chance, all at once. But wait it gets better. M3 and M4? Three out of four of them have terrible losing records too! The best, once again, 6-9. Everyone else was even worse.

So up he goes, perhaps the luckiest promotion in the history of Sumo, truly a perfect storm. He then proceeded to lose very badly (2-13), and went right back down to M7, which is where he would spend the majority of his career. 1983-11, if you want to check it out.

There are only 75 fighters that peaked at Komusubi, compared to 90 who peaked at Sekiwake. All currently active fighters pictured.

I take it back, because the lowest rated Komusubi got even luckier, somehow. Take a look at Maenoshin Yasuo, with a Score of 1187, who jumped all the way from M8 to Komusubi, on an 11-4 record.

There are a total of 14 rikishi between him and Komusubi. But how many of the 14 fighters from M1 to M7 had losing records that basho?

Every single one. I'm not kidding. That basho is so stupid, it looks like someone made it up. 1987-07, if you want to check it out.

_____________________________________________________________________

Thanks for reading! There's now only a few things left that I want to look at in detail. One being techniques, and then there's also the idea of checking out correlations between weight, age, techniques, and injuries received, insofar as those can be derived from the data I have available.

But these analyses still require a lot of work and some restructuring of the database, so they have to be left for another time. The next thing I want to do is take a look at the current roster. I hope I can get that done before the next basho starts.

As always, if you have questions or want to argue a point, feel free to do so in the comments!

Will Oonosato become the fastest Yokozuna in history? Will it actually happen soon? Let's have a calm discussion based on reality, not just wishful thinking.

Will Terunofuji be an obstacle? Or will Takerufuji stand in his way? Or will something completely different happen? (I don't know why but 尊富士 was translated as Takanashi in google translation. sorry. 2024-10-30 5:37)

It looks like there are seams in the videos that I have seen from the tour. Is there a portable Dohyo that is used for the tour? I'm assuming it would be costly to hand-make it out of clay for an isolated stop.

If you could include context for anything that needs it too, I would appreciate it. Randomly stumbled upon Sumo on TV one day and just love what I’ve seen, but was especially impressed with Hakuho. I caught a couple of his matches and really like the guy. I’d love to see more. Any significant moments you guys know about from his career. Like big matches, big moments, things of that nature.

Onosato held a press conference after recovering from adenovirus. He appears to be eating a lot of fruit and sleeping well.

大の里は元気です！　新大関がスタートダッシュ宣言　巡業離脱から10日ぶりに姿【大相撲九州場所番付発表】

https://www.chunichi.co.jp/article/978528

It's time for another check of where wrestlers are when it comes to eligibility for a career beyond their time in the ring.

Onosato's promotion to ozeki means, of course, that he is now a branch out eligible wrestler. A wrestler gains branch out rights if they are career high ozeki or better, or have 25 tournaments in sanyaku or 60 tournaments in the top division. There are 9 ozeki or better, two qualifying career high sekiwake (Tamawashi and Takarafuji), and one qualifying career high komusubi (Endo). Daieisho is in his 20th tournament in sanyaku, so we could see him join the club next year, and if that doesn't happen, he is only 8 top division tournaments away from joining.

Ordinary elder stock eligibility comes from having career high komusubi or better, having 20 tournaments in the top division, or 30 salaried tournaments. Churanoumi is the newest member of this club with his 30th top division tournament, while Midorifuji (19 top division), Ichiyamamoto (17 top division), Oho (one winning score away, but he has 16 top division), and Hakuyozan (28 salaried) appear to be locks to join the club. Of course, we wish Enho (29 salaried) and Akua (28 salaried) the best as they try to position themselves up the ranks for just a bit more.

Among the non-stablemasters among our oyakata, there are 10 oyakata that are branch-out eligible, not counting Hakuho and his Miyagino stable being temporarily under Isegahama management. They are: Onaruto (Dejima), Minatogawa (Takakeisho), Kiyomigata (Tochiozan), Takenawa (Tochinonada), Tatekawa (Tosanoumi), Kimigahama (Okinoumi), Iwatomo (Aoiyama), Furiwake (Myogiryu), Tomozuna (Kaisei), and Kumegawa (Kotoinazuma). Of course, not all of them may have appetites for being stablemaster (Kumegawa-oyakata is 62, after all), but it would be interesting to see who among them will branch out in the future.

For 2025, there will be two stablemasters reaching retirement age, and thus will have to hand off their stables to someone else even if they stay on as consultants for another five years. These would be Isegahama and Otake. It would be interesting to see if the new master of Otake stable will be largely in a caretaker role until the day Oho retires and possibly takes over the stable his grandfather built (and his father used to run). Two other non-stablemaster oyakata will also be reaching 65 at the end of 2025.

Finally, there are two currently vacant elder names. Kiriyama is said to be reserved for Takarafuji, while the Dekiyama name is still owned by the former Dewanohana, who left the Association in 2021 when he turned 70. (Since then, two other elders have borrowed the name: the former Sadanofuji, and the former Hochiyama, the latter now Tatsutagawa-oyakata.)

GTB results:

http://www.dichne.com/Guess.htm

New record of participants- not an easy game to play, so kudos to all players, including the 40 new ones..

https://preview.redd.it/bjsfb72q9dxd1.png?width=496&format=png&auto=webp&s=492040bd3da75b0c602495bb11aa83de29d476da

I’m a new fan from the USA and have a Banzuke question for everyone. I understand it will get released tomorrow, but when will we know the rankings? Will there be a website with the updates?

Thanks!