TOP GRAPH: Over the past +50 years, inversions of the 50 day SMA of the 10 year treasury rates minus the 50 day SMA of the 3 month treasury rates have all preceded the start of a U.S. recession (there have been no false indicators or exceptions to this rule). The 8 recessions that occurred over the last half a century have started within an average of 12.18 months from the first day that their 50 day SMA inversions began).

BOTTOM GRAPH: Recession probability distribution showing the positions of the last 8 recessions (over a +50 yr. period) superimposed on the curve with each recession's position based on the time from the first day of their respective (10 Yr. minus 3 Mo.) 50 day SMA inversions to the first day of the start of their corresponding recessions. Normal distribution used as best fit with a mean of 12.18 months and a standard deviation of 4.61 months. The current position on the probability curve is denoted by the sliding red vertical arrow starting from time zero (1st day of the latest 50 day SMA inversion) and moving rightwards as time proceeds. Prediction of a 57% probability that a recession will start on or before late December 2023 and a greater than 95% probability that a recession will start on or before late July 2024.

Over the past 54 years without exception, when the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of the 10-year treasury yield curve is compared with the 50 Day SMA of the 3-month treasury yield curve and their difference becomes negative (inverts) a recession has occurred. This bell curve is the recession probability distribution based on data spanning over half of a century and across the last eight recessions. On average, recessions occur 12.18 months from the first day of the 50 day SMA inversion with a standard deviation of 4.61 months.

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^it's only 2 questions but I am in dire need! tysm in advance

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