I was listening to a podcast that was about Ukraine and how Ukraine changed after they broke away from the USSR. When they were part of the USSR the communist government was responsible for everything at every level. This meant that if there was something wrong in your street, the national government would have to deal with it. Local officials were merely party agents with no real power.

This made people feel alienated from local issues that affect them and powerless to affect change. It also made them despondent and politically disengaged.

Some time after 1991 and Ukrainian independence they devolved power to lower spheres of government giving considerably more agency to local governments. This in turn made local politicians accountable to the electorate in that locale because they couldn't blame shift to national government.

This is part of what transformed a former soviet state to a democratic state. People felt empowered, engaged and proud. Fierce competition between cities meant that improvement came at record speed. Social cohesion improved because material circumstances that were shared could be mobilized into visible change relatively quickly.

People stopped feeling like they were external to the political process and instead felt like they were part of this process on a personal level.

That is why Ukrainians came out in massive numbers when they had a Russian backed president that was trying to move away from the EU and closer to Russia. Thousands of ordinary citizens protested peacefully in the maidan square until the Russian puppet president was forced to resign and flee to Russia. Ukrainians had chosen their path because they felt like they shared a national identity and that it was European, not Russian.

There are parallels to be drawn in South Africa. People feel alienated and disconnected from the political process because their votes and participation don't matter in their own lives. People helplessly reach out to the government to save them because they have no power to affect change.

Examples always help. One of the most contentious issues in this election was crime, especially in Cape Town. Many people did not vote for the DA because they have seen their family members gunned down meters away from where they live. The fact that the City is unable to police these areas did not help, because the perception that the failure was local took root in the minds of residents.

Having to convince the entire electorate to vote differently so that you can live safely is not realistic and makes voting more of a ritual than an act of choice. Voting for a local government where your vote counts more makes no sense when that government has no power to affect your most pressing issues.

The more centrally everything is controlled, the less your voice is heard. The ANC has a centralist agenda because they believe control and micromanagement is the way to run an effective society. They pay lip service to aggrieved parties and do exactly what they think is best. They refuse to take responsibility and even use their own failures to criticize their opponents because it's not immediately clear who is responsible for things going wrong.

The way this comes across to ordinary South Africans is that they think politicians refuse to take responsibility and instead blame each other. This erodes faith in democracy and undermines social cohesion.

If South Africa is to succeed, I believe we need to have more control of our surroundings as citizens, and devolution is how we achieve that.

Everyone who has been watching the news knows that regardless of the configuration of government chosen by the ANC the factionalism in the party will cause yet another schism that will further weaken the organisation and it's ability to continue being the most significant player in South African politics.

Rhamaposa is the only leader that still holds sway with the people of South Africa and he is entering his final term (probably) tomorrow.

If they choose to embrace a coalition with other sects of the ANC like the EFF and MK the factional war that caused them to not carry a president for two whole terms will return in full force and result in the annihilation of all three. There is no possibility that this government could be cohesive. The infighting and tug of war on the purse strings would snap our already fragile country in half. It would severely hamper their ability to control the narrative that they have spent vast amounts of resources to maintain: namely that they are the only hope for South Africa and voting for the DA would bring apartheid back.

If they choose the DA/IFP coalition they will alienate all the supporters that have bought into their narrative that the DA is the national party. This will embolden the radical MK and EFF to campaign against them using their own narrative but with the added chapter that they have sold out to white monopoly capital.

In either case their propaganda machine that relies on awarding state resources to chosen comrades that then pay a tithe back to the party as donations will be severely undermined. The DA/IFP would want to see a stengthened institutions, oversight and accountability.

The EFF/MK would use the exact same mechanism of quid pro quo patronage to build substantial campaign war chests for upcoming elections.

That would leave the ANC politically unable to mount any kind of successful campaign against any of its rivals in either case, because it is the control and misappropriation of state resources that have allowed them to create political machinery that stretches from the most remote villages to the largest metros.

It's not a win/win for the other parties, but there is no outcome for the following few years that is favourable for the ANC. Wherever they have lost a majority they have never been able to regain it. Their demise has brought our whole country to the brink of destruction. In less than 24 hours we will learn whether they are willing to have a dignified death where Hlabisa sings while they slowly Drift from this world to the next or whether they will be paraded to the public square to be torn apart by the enemies that they birthed in the form of the MK/EFF.

Either way we should expect purges, defections and drama for the next few years. If our institutions hold we will survive and come out better than we entered into this time, but we will have to strap in and stock up on popcorn for now.

Môre info: https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2024-06-07-exclusive-da-sets-out-principles-for-gnu-participation-constitution-first-sarb-independence/

In a briefing to the country president Ramaphosa has announced the intention for the ANC to enter into a government of national unity with all political parties that are willing to take part.

According to the briefing they have already had talks with the EFF, DA, IFP and PA.

The details have not been bashed out as a team of ANC leaders will now engage with political parties in order to make the necessary agreements.

I am honestly quite sceptical about this plan and it seems very much like the ANC is more concerned with its own survival than the prosperity of South Africa.

Having spent the last 30 years antagonizing opposition parties and hollowing out the state, the idea of fostering unity rings hollow.

The fact that the PA and EFF are involved in this does not bode well for us. The ANC will probably seek to create a government with maximum consensus and zero progress, buying time to try and regroup from their defeat at the polls.

Hi all,

This is a request to please refrain from posting content from news sources that are not reputable or spreading rumours on social media.

While it might seem like fear mongering, it is extremely cheap for malign foreign state actors to mobilize bots and shills to post divisive content that can cause destabilisation or for certain narratives to take root.

Our country is in a no mans land until the first sitting of parliament and sentiment can be a driver of decision making for politicians or for reactions from the public when decisions are announced.

Some tips:

• Do not assume that comments on Tik Tok, Facebook, Youtube or Twitter are posted by humans. Also keep in mind that it could be some Russian operative sitting at a PC somewhere posting this and posing as an average South African, party member etc. Their tactics keep improving too. Just because someone has been on the platform for 6 months that does not make them legitimate.
• If comments or posts contain disinformation, report them. Please refer to the real411 website that is stickied in this group. If the platform has a report option, also use that.
• If there is no report option, you can choose to reply but keep a cool head and respond with information. Vitriol, anger and division is the main aim of these types of operations.
• Don't post screenshots of headlines unless you made that screenshot yourself. It is a common tactic to manipulate headlines and post them on social media so they can spread.
• Don't express anger. Use reason, logic and evidence. Anger is multiplied in return. Let's stay safe.
• Deplatforming: If figures that drive hatred and mistrust are being interviewed downvote the video and walk away. Don't watch it. If it is on a news channel, change the channel. Some of these figures include anyone from the MK or the PA. These people live by attention, and sadly the media shares this requirement. They know you will watch, so they make more. Just don't.

How can you help?

The easiest way to help is to mobilize on social media and create a counter-narrative. We can never outpost the bots and paid shills, but we can show the users who consume that media that there is another side of the story.

Some of the things that have been featuring in the disinformation and botspace is:

• Conspiracies about certain individuals controlling political parties, most notably the Oppenheimers or the "stellenbosch mafia"
• Race baiting: The softest target in South Africa is our history with race. Bots might post inflammatory racist content that incite violence or mistrust.
• Deals being reached behind closed doors when no deals have been announced. Remember that if it hasn't been announced it isn't final. A disinformation actor can post a fake deal in order to create a false runaway narrative that ultimately changes the outcome of any deals made.
• Conspiracies about what is going to happen. There is a conspiracy going around on Tik Tok that the DA wants to take over the presidency by getting the deputy president position and then convicting Ramaphosa for Phala Phala. Besides how ridiculous this scenario is, it cannot happen because a motion of no confidence will remove them the moment after the DA president is sworn in.
• A DA Coalition would withdraw from the ICJ case: there is no evidence for this anywhere
• A DA Coalition would exit BRICS: There is no evidence for this anywhere

Avoid The following news sources

IOL

There have been a number of scandals surrounding them

The cape independent

This is much less a news source than a propaganda outlet for the cape independence movement.

Previously unknown news sources

Be careful of news websites popping up out of nowhere with a narrative slant.

Once again, based on how Putin negotiates, there is a very predictable way they will negotiate and it's already started.

The method is not about compromise. It is about unrealistic demands on the one end and grave, but ultimately empty threats on the other side.

This is meant to coercively control your opponent. This works wonderfully well with weak leaders who are afraid of anything bad and want to avoid conflict at any cost.

Another element in this is that no agreement is in good faith and will be reneged on the moment when it becomes beneficial. When your opponent is weak you start to renege on agreements because they can't strike back. When your opponent protests you play the victim and twist the narrative in your favour. Any failure is blamed on the opponent and the crossing of the red line was done in defense.

This is all bolstered by a constant flow of misinformation and incitement of your loyalists, so that you can mobilize chaos at the touch of a button.