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orbital means it is in a stable orbit as defined in kerbal https://wiki.kerbalspaceprogram.com/wiki/Orbit

it doesn't have to complete a full orbit, reach orbit and deorbit is fine

I don't have gold to bet, so I'm not sure what to bet on.

Place your predictions here

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Context: https://old.reddit.com/r/SpaceXMasterrace/comments/14vmgih/woah_woah_woah_new_starship_info_from_elon/jrdj6ac/

• Bet ends with the first successful crewed HLS Starship lunar landing: landing astronauts on the lunar surface and returning them to Orion.

• If the number of refueling launches for the mission is less than or equal to 8, I win, otherwise you win. The number of refueling launches does not include the launch of depot or the lander itself, nor does it include refueling needed to prepare HLS Starship for the next mission in case they want to reuse it.

• If HLS Starship doesn't happen for some reason (for example Artemis is cancelled), or the conops has major changes (for example SLS/Orion is removed), or it's delayed past 2030, the bet ends with no winner.

So many flame trenchers think they're smarter than SpaceX and that I don't know what I'm talking about, so put your money where your mouth is:

• Bet ends with a successful Starship/SuperHeavy launch: flies planned orbital or near orbital trajectory, whether landing is successful doesn't matter.

• If the launch is from a launch mount that is similar to the current design at Boca Chica, then I win: Similar as in it's a launch table with a hole in the center where the vehicle sits, the launch table is elevated tens of meters above ground, support by several pillars. What they put on the floor of the launch mount doesn't matter.

• If the launch is from a structure similar to the "flame trench" at LC-39 A/B, then you win: Similar as in it has two long rectangular concrete structures that are more than 100m long, with a concrete duct in the middle of them. There're only one or two openings at the end(s) of the concrete structures where flame can exit.

Elon says: "[There is a] close to 100 percent chance of reaching orbit within 12 months."

I will buy you gold if he's right, if he's wrong you buy me platinum.

You doomer chickens! I think OLM can be repaired and enhanced quickly and the next booster/ship are ready to go.

I win: Starship will fly before or on July 31th.
You win: Starship won’t fly before August 1st.

The title says it all.

Since I believe most fans are more optimistic, if I win I get platinum and if I lose I give gold.

With the damage to the launch pad, I project a minimum of 4 months to repair and implement any basic redesigns.

$5 to the winner's charity of choice.

I get gold if Raptor thrust induces vertical motion visible in the official SpaceX stream on 4/20/2023. RUD doesn't count as "Raptor thrust".

Otherwise, you get gold.

I can only afford one bet. Bet must be accepted prior to TFR cancellation or official announcement of OFT attempt cancellation

Update: u/AccidentallyBorn has accepted the bet. This is the way.

Conditions: Launch Starship OTF on 4/20.

If I am right: Lol. 4/20

If I am wrong: I lose my pride.

Edit 1: 4/17 Scrubbed. Heh heh.. 2 Days closer..

Final Edit: I win. But I am not happy. Why is that so?

R.I.P B7 and S24. You tried your hardest. 😢

The conditions:

If a spacecraft containing live human beings lands on the moon between the creation of this post and 12:00 AM on January 1, 2028 (in all time zones), I will donate $25 (plus any transaction fees) to The Planetary Society.

If no spacecraft containing live human beings has landed on the surface of the moon between the creation of this post and the moment all time zones have reached 12:00 AM on January 1, 2028, anyone accepting the other side of this bet will donate $25 (plus any transaction fee) to The Planetary Society.

I will be downright giddy making my donation if I lose, so let’s hope Artemis 3 makes it by then. I will accept this bet with up to five individual people, for a maximum total donation of $125 from myself, but even if this post does hit that limit, feel free to join in and bet your money one way or another if you’d like. Also, I am open to negotiations if you’re unhappy with the dollar amount or charity for some reason, but I think $25 to The Planetary Society is a good choice and would prefer not to stray from it.

Edit: I’m deleting my Reddit account, but this bet will still be open for the rest of 2023. I will silently accept any bets (up to 5) below $50 from the Internet afterlife and return with a new account when the bet is resolved one way or another.

This is the 3rd year I’ll be making this best. Lost very fast in 2021, won in 2022.

A successful landing means once the engines shut off, the booster is still standing in one piece and is in a reusable state. If a leg is damaged, but repaired and is capable of flying again, it’s a successful landing.

If the booster falls off a drone ship on its way back to land, it will still count as a successful landing, but to make things a bit more clear, let’s say if it falls off/over within 60 seconds of engine cut-off, then it is considered an unsuccessful landing.

If there needs to be more rules, let me know and I’ll edit the post to add more.

To those of you who took up this bet in 2022, pay up! Good luck in all future bets for 2023

As the title says, I am wanting to bet that Dear Moon will not fly prior to 2028.

Rules are simple, if any mission under the name Dear Moon flown in stead for Yusaku, flies prior to 2028, I lose, if it takes until January 1st for a mission to depart for the moon, I win.

Open to bets, but I'm wanting to bet cash.

Willing to take any offer

The Wager

I am willing to wager:

1x any Reddit award up to Argentium (e.g. 1x silver, 1x gold, 1x platinum, or 1x Argentium) up to a total value of 40,000 Reddit coins (maximum 1 wager per person)

that:

Starship and/or Super Heavy WILL NOT make an orbital attempt before 2023.

What is an orbital attempt?

An orbital attempt in this context is that the countdown clock for an official SpaceX, orbital launch attempt of Starship and/or Super Heavy has reached T -0 seconds and there was not an abort at or before that time.

How to Participate?

Reply to this post making it clear which of the valid options you wish to wager before December 2022. Any posts that are marked as edited will be deemed invalid.

I would be willing to bet 100 coins that some version of Dragon and Starship are in contact in space, by the end of 2026. This might be

• docking
• crew transfer
• rescue
• Dragon enclosed in Starship cargo bay, to serve as a lifeboat
• Any other contact in space that I haven't thought of.

If several people want to take this bet, I suppose it could be split up into 20 or 50 coin bets.

When will the orbital flight test for Starship Launch?

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I win if the title ends up being correct, I lose if it doesn't (program gets canceled or someone else beats them to it)
You are free to draw your own implications from this
Bet expires December 31st 2031, loser has to pay the winner 25 USD
If the bet expires nobody wins
Will only accept one taker

To be honest they look kinda fucked but the math checks out on my back-of-envelope calc.

I'm mostly voting my confidence in the fact that they have DoD funding and a well animated website.

They say they'll hit orbit by 2026, anyone want to bet against me?

I'll take odds, double or nothing's, or anything else. Charity preferred, cash fine, no crypto.

Another month has passed in the B7 testing campaign. When do you think the first orbital flight test will take flight?

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Conditions for me to win:

A starship carrying passengers must perform a burn placing it in a lunar injection trajectory before Jan 1, 2025. Additionally those passengers will enter LEO riding one or more dragon capsules (Dragon 2 or further iterations). Award shall be granted to me as soon as possible after it is verified the conditions of the bet are met.

Conditions under which I will pay out:
Dear moon is still scheduled, or no announcement of its cancellation has been made, and no starship with passengers that entered LEO on dragon capsule(s) has entered a Lunar Injection trajectory before Jan 1, 2025. Awards shall be granted on Jan 1, 2025.

Bet Nullification Conditions

If Dear Moon is cancelled before Jan 1, 2025 All bets are void.

​

Dispute Resolution

I would like to think this is pretty cut and dry, but if a situation occurs where it is unclear who the winner should be a poll will be posted by me to the r/HighStakesSpaceX subreddit and after 72 hours the results of that poll will be recognized as the final word.

How to participate

Make a comment to this post along with the size of the award you would like to bet. I am open to minor modifications of the terms or stakes (donation to charity, public act of contrition, etc). I will accept on a first posted first accepted basis until awards up to 75,000 (or equivalent) have been declared. I will accept further bets at my own discretion. I reserve the right to not accept a bet based on account age or activity.

Artemis 1 suffers a failure, what caused it?

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When will the first orbital flight test launch?

NOTE: Poll does not effect your flair.

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When will the first Starship Orbital Flight Test launch?

(Poll won't affect flair.)

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Elon said that they are targeting 2 months from now.

East coast to Hawaii (the current plan) is considered orbit even if it doesn't actually reach orbital speeds.

Upto $5 per person or a total of $20.

$10 to the charity of the winner's choice. I bet that OneWeb satellites displaced from Soyuz will launch on Falcon 9 by March 19, 2023.

Given then ongoing situation with Russia. There may be need for reboost capability for the ISS and I bet SpaceX will provide it with an extension of the Dragon platform.

Given the unlikely nature I am asking for a Staged 2 to 1 odds.

$50 to charity of choice (Mine is MSF/Doctors without borders) You win the bet if SpaceX does not win a contract or down selection phase by Dec 31 2023.

I win if SpaceX wins a contract or is at least one selection pass to develop reboost capability for the ISS by Dec 31 2023.

I win again if SpaceX successfully demonstrates reboost of the ISS