Updated dashboard

• California is now at 474 affected livestock herds, bringing the nationwide total to 691.
• No detections outside of California in over 3 weeks
• 7-day average of newly affected herds appears roughly stable, a trend corroborated by wastewater. Data is still noisy so it's not clear if we're at the peak of the outbreak ye

UPDATE (PLS COMMENT YOUR THOUGHTS BELOW): based on a request I received on this post and others on previous updates, I made an alternative to the map which shaded each state by how many herds are affected. I've attached an image of the alternate map where states are colored by the % of dairy herds affected and you can see both stats. Lmk if this is an improvement, is too much, or if you have any other thoughts!

https://preview.redd.it/fc3q8lz55w3e1.png?width=1950&format=png&auto=webp&s=d8c94536ac2d3a5efa333b81ad5a0c1520883263

Welcome to the new weekly discussion post!

As many of you are familiar, in order to keep the quality of our subreddit high, our general rules are restrictive in the content we allow for posts. However, the team recognizes that many of our users have questions, concerns, and commentary that don’t meet the normal posting requirements but are still important topics related to H5N1. We want to provide you with a space for this content without taking over the whole sub. This is where you can do things like ask what to do with the dead bird on your porch, report a weird illness in your area, ask what sort of masks you should buy or what steps you should take to prepare for a pandemic, and more!

Please note that other subreddit rules still apply. While our requirements are less strict here, we will still be enforcing the rules about civility, politicization, self-promotion, etc.

https://cabinradio.ca/212291/news/health/one-confirmed-bird-flu-case-in-nwt-raven-second-case-suspected/

https://youtu.be/Z_NplGxtF9I?si=eXtbcdy91ecogN7N

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/b-c-teen-with-avian-flu-remains-in-critical-care-source-of-infection-still-unknown-1.7123727

The UC Davis Veterinary Medicine Laboratory reported:

• presumptive positive for the Raw Farm retail raw milk samples taken by a county public health department on the 19 of November and
• negative results for raw milk samples taken by the state veterinarian at Raw Farm on the 12th and 21st of November.

Has anyone seen evidence of isolation and replication of intact virus from the presumptive positive raw milk sample?

Any report of infected workers on this farm or neighboring farms?

Gift/Free Read Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/26/opinion/vaccine-bird-flu-pandemic.html?unlocked_article_code=1.c04.S9c8.gYPRjQYgpdYd&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

Kay Russo (dairy and poultry vet/Consultant/Speaker) Linkedin Post:

"Cows:

H5 continues to blow through the California dairy industry. More than 400 herds are now positive, which is greater than 30% of the California dairy industry. H5 is lighting up wastewater like a Christmas tree.

Pennsylvania is starting mandatory bulk tank testing of all dairy herds. PA has a robust poultry industry and I believe they are trying to thwart the poultry farms as being the “canary in the mine” for dairy infections, which has occurred in states like Utah and Minnesota as several dairies refused to report.

Arizona has recently instituted new testing requirements for non-lactating dairy class animals coming into the state. This is the first state to do this. We are still unclear about the role that non-lactating dairy and beef animals play in the viral ecology. We know they can get infected but I think we are still unclear on risk for transmission.

Birds:

Several new commercial flocks are positive in California (estimated total of 24 I believe) as well as commercial flocks in Arizona. The California outbreak encompasses turkeys/turkey breeders, layers (including a >1 million bird site on top of the 2+ million layers already depopulated in the state), broilers, and commercial meat ducks. Genotypes are not readily provided so whether they are of dairy or migratory bird origin is unclear. I would surmise that those that are in the central valley are more likely B3.13.

Backyard flocks are also popping up across the country in states like Alaska, Hawaii, South Dakota, Washington, California, Oregon, Colorado, and Montana. It sounds like the Hawaii genotype falls under A3 (D1.1 or D1.2 perhaps), which is a migratory bird associated virus (NOT bovine!). 
I get a lot of questions about genotype and how we figure out what is what. The answer is that, unless the state readily releases this information (thanks to the states that do), it is a pain in the butt. The veterinarians on record for the commercial farms should be given this information by the state. Whether it is released to the public is variable.

This is unfortunate because genotype gives insight into transmission pathways and risk for other commercial farms. At present, it’s often a phylogenetic post-mortem weeks to months after in states that are not forthcoming with this info.

I wish the government was more transparent about this.
  
Canadian flocks continue to get hammered by H5. I spoke with a poultry veterinarian up there yesterday and she asked if the US was considering vaccines. I told her I honestly don’t know, and I asked her about Canada, she simply replied “Canada follows the USA, right?”. Producers up there are at wits end and many are trying to find ways out of the poultry industry due to these sustained losses year after year.

Part 2 Kay Russo: Humans:

We’re up to 53 reported H5 cases on the CDC website. 21 from poultry, 31 from dairy, 1 unknown. This does not include the child in Alameda, California that has yet to be confirmed by CDC but is presumptive positive. This child was treated with anti-viral meds and then tested again 4 days later, testing negative (not surprising).

People are watching this case because genotype is important. Contact tracing will also be very important as the child was not around birds or cows. Hopefully the CDC has enough viral material to get a good sequence on it. I would anticipate this information any day now.

There are comments in the media that if it is the bovine genotype then food-borne transmission could be on the table. All previous testing of post-pasteurized milk has shown that there is no viable H5N1 in the milk post-pasteurization.

I’m unaware of whether any current testing has been performed in California shelf dairy products (maybe it has), my hope is that we continue to test animal products to ensure they are free of H5 live virus given the zoonotic risk. Testing requires a specialized test called virus isolation (VI), which can only be performed by certain labs. There is a viability PCR that I’ve heard of, which can help differentiate between live and dead viruses, but I don’t know enough about it to speak intelligibly.

There have been some concerning mutations recovered in human cases. The Canadian teen (infected with D1.1) has a mutation that lends to better human adaptation of the virus. The workers in Washington (poultry cullers) and one dairy worker in California had viruses that showed some potential for decreased susceptibility to our antiviral medication tools. You can read more about it in the link below."

https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2024/11/23/something-is-wrong-kaimuki-resident-alerts-agriculture-officials-after-mystery-bird-deaths/

More zebra doves have been found dead on Oahu, the last state in the U.S. to be free of bird flu. It's the same kind of wild bird found dead from H5N1 at the first outbreak from the duck and geese rescue farm, but it isn't confirmed yet that this one is H5N1.

The first outbreak was in Wahiawa and this one is in Kaimuki, so three quarters of the island distance between the two if confirmed.

The genotype from the first outbreak is from Alaska, and that probably points to the golden plovers as carriers since they are one of the few birds that migrates from Hawaii and they migrate to Alaska every year. They are just coming back now.

Zebra doves are everywhere you look, and the plovers are not as common but they hang out in populated areas. I hope the testing is negative and the outbreak at the duck rescue died out but it looks pretty bleak at this point.