/r/DecisionTheory
Statistical decision theory and utility theory.
Statistical decision theory is concerned with making optimal decisions under statistical uncertainty, often maximizing expected utility. It can be applied to many areas such as economics, medicine, finance, and business, and draws heavily on Bayesian statistics, meta-analysis, optimization, POMDPs, reinforcement learning, causal modeling, game theory, and operations research. Goals include cost-benefit analyses (calculating expected utility of specific choices), defining relevant loss functions, the value of perfect data and the optimal amount of data to gather, balancing taking (estimated) optimal actions with learning about other suboptimal actions, inferring causal mechanisms in an environment, eliciting expert beliefs for priors, and examining sensitivity of conclusions about decisions to the data or modeling choices. Discussion of underlying philosophical issues like Newcomb's dilemma is permitted (but try to not be tedious).
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/r/DecisionTheory
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21:51 UTC
Is there a such thing as a turing test for economic agents? I want to test a formula for Rational Agent Utility.
07:19 UTC
Keen on getting feedback from the community!
G'day all! We're a couple of Aussie mates who have been lurkers on this sub for a little bit. About a year ago, we were inspired by ideas about utilitarianism and rational decision making to create a podcast: Recreational Overthinking. We're hell bent on solving the world's most inconsequential problems using the tools of rationality, mathematics, and logic. So far, among many others, we've tackled:
- How much evidence should you demand before accepting the existence of your own twin?
- How is blame (and financial repercussions) distributed following a rental car crash?
- Should truly rational agents actually feel happy after learning about their grandma falling over?
- How can I leave hostel ratings in a way that avoids sub-optimal Nash equilibria?
Join us on our mission to apply a technical skillset wherever it really doesn't need to be! We'd love to hear some feedback from the community, so chuck us a comment or direct message if you've got any thoughts. Cheers all!
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3xZEkvyXuujpkZtHDrjk7r?si=vXXt5dv_RL2XTOBTPl4XRg
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/recreational-overthinking/id1739244849
Instagram: recreationaloverthinking
19:49 UTC
[Video] Blackwell’s Informativeness Theorem Applied to HTA Guidelines: An Overview of Keiding 2016
21:07 UTC
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