/r/DecisionTheory

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Statistical decision theory and utility theory.

Statistical decision theory is concerned with making optimal decisions under statistical uncertainty, often maximizing expected utility. It can be applied to many areas such as economics, medicine, finance, and business, and draws heavily on Bayesian statistics, meta-analysis, optimization, POMDPs, reinforcement learning, causal modeling, game theory, and operations research. Goals include cost-benefit analyses (calculating expected utility of specific choices), defining relevant loss functions, the value of perfect data and the optimal amount of data to gather, balancing taking (estimated) optimal actions with learning about other suboptimal actions, inferring causal mechanisms in an environment, eliciting expert beliefs for priors, and examining sensitivity of conclusions about decisions to the data or modeling choices. Discussion of underlying philosophical issues like Newcomb's dilemma is permitted (but try to not be tedious).

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/r/DecisionTheory

2,770 Subscribers

2

Is there a such thing as a turing test for economic agents? I want to test a formula for Rational Agent Utility.

0 Comments
2024/11/23
07:19 UTC

2

Questions about precommitment.

0 Comments
2024/10/21
09:28 UTC

5

Keen on getting feedback from the community!

G'day all! We're a couple of Aussie mates who have been lurkers on this sub for a little bit. About a year ago, we were inspired by ideas about utilitarianism and rational decision making to create a podcast: Recreational Overthinking. We're hell bent on solving the world's most inconsequential problems using the tools of rationality, mathematics, and logic. So far, among many others, we've tackled:

  • How much evidence should you demand before accepting the existence of your own twin?
  • How is blame (and financial repercussions) distributed following a rental car crash?
  • Should truly rational agents actually feel happy after learning about their grandma falling over?
  • How can I leave hostel ratings in a way that avoids sub-optimal Nash equilibria?

Join us on our mission to apply a technical skillset wherever it really doesn't need to be! We'd love to hear some feedback from the community, so chuck us a comment or direct message if you've got any thoughts. Cheers all!

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3xZEkvyXuujpkZtHDrjk7r?si=vXXt5dv_RL2XTOBTPl4XRg

Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/recreational-overthinking/id1739244849

Instagram: recreationaloverthinking

0 Comments
2024/10/15
19:49 UTC

1

[Video] Blackwell’s Informativeness Theorem Applied to HTA Guidelines: An Overview of Keiding 2016

0 Comments
2024/09/27
21:07 UTC

2

How smart storage aids success

I was responsible for a budget at work. I got a monthly report showing what items had been charged to it. Each month, without fail, items were charged to my budget that I did not recognise. Brandishing my budget report with the questionable items highlighted, I headed down the corridor to challenge my colleague who allocated charges to budgets. He had around forty piles of paper covering much of the office floor and his desk. It looked chaotic. I’d ask him what the strange items on my budget report related to. He’d thrust his hand into one the piles and extract related documentation. How he know where to look was a mystery. *Which budget do you want me to charge it to?*I was responsible for a budget at work. I got a monthly report showing what items had been charged to it. Each month, without fail, items were charged to my budget that I did not recognise. Brandishing my budget report with the questionable items highlighted, I headed down the corridor to challenge my colleague who allocated charges to budgets. He had around forty piles of paper covering much of the office floor and his desk. It looked chaotic. I’d ask him what the strange items on my budget report related to. He’d thrust his hand into one the piles and extract related documentation. How he know where to look was a mystery. Which budget do you want me to charge it to?, he’d ask. I gently suggested that that was his job, not mine. Somehow, I knew I’d be having the same conversation next month.

Fast data retrieval using caching

In the practical use of intellect, forgetting is as important a function as remembering. - William James

Computer caching is a vital optimisation technique where copies of data are stored in a temporary location for faster future access. A cache can be hardware or software based, e.g. CPU cache and browser cache. As data is added to the cache, at some point it will become full. At this point, the question is, what data do we throw out (or forget) to make room for the new data? The most common eviction policies (or caching algorithms) used include: Random ReplacementFirst In First Out (FIFO) and Least Recently Used (LRU). While each has its own advantages and use cases, LRU is often best for minimising data retrieval times.

Aside from the question of what to store in a cache, another is how to organise that content. An economist found himself inundated with information in various forms, including correspondence, papers and reports. He tried various ways to organise the data, ending up with the following approach. Each item was labelled with a title and date then placed vertically in a big box. Three rules were applied: 1. New items were added to the left of the existing ones, 2. When searching for an item, he worked from left to right, 3. When he finished with the item, it was placed to the left of the items in the box. He began to realise that not only was this a simple filing system, it also minimised average retrieval times. This approach represents an extension of the LRU rule. In a very appealing twist, when the economist’s box is turned on it’s side, we get a pile. Hence, a pile effectively works as a cache.

Applying caching to personal productivity

Nothing is less productive than to make more efficient what which should not be done at all. - Peter Drucker

The principles of caching help us manage time and resources effectively. Just as computers benefit from reduced data retrieval times, we benefit from reduced cognitive load and fast access to information and tools. Ways I apply these concepts include:

  1. Task prioritisationA key characteristic of caching is the importance of prioritising frequently used resources. I focus on recurrent or high-impact tasks. By identifying and concentrating on such tasks, I ensure my time and energy are spent on what matters most. Using a strategy like the LRU caching algorithm, I prioritise tasks based on their recent importance.
  2. Reducing cognitive load with folders and toolsJust as a cache reduces the need to retrieve data from a slower main memory, having essential data and tools readily available can reduces my cognitive load. On my laptop I have shortcuts to the most frequently and recently used folders. Also, the apps I use most frequently are on the first screen of my iPhone.
  3. Minimising decision fatigueDecision fatigue occurs when the quality of decisions deteriorates after a long session of decision-making. To minimise this, certain decisions can be made in advance. In common with Mark Zuckerberg, I wear similar clothes most days. I go to the same coffee shop and buy food from a handful of places.
  4. Automating repetitive tasksAutomation is akin to caching in that it handles repetitive tasks without manual intervention, thus saving time and effort. When I first bought a house, I had many regular bills to pay. However, sometimes I would forget to pay them. I got myself into a real muddle, including receiving a court summons for non payment of Council Tax. My life massively improved when I setup Direct Debits for all regular bills.

Other resources

Algorithms to Live By talk by Brian Christian and Tom Griffiths

Balancing Explore v Exploit Data Tradeoffs post by Phil Martin

Simple Rules post by Phil Martin

While writing this, I realised that my current home office fits the description of my budget charging colleague; just swap piles of paper for piles of books. It would appear we both hit upon an optimal way of storing and retrieving data. Perhaps there is such a thing as organised chaos.

Have fun.

Phil...

0 Comments
2024/07/07
17:54 UTC

3

How 3 tech titans make decisions

In Summer 2006, my family and I attended the Trowbridge Pump Music Festival. Over the long weekend, we camped in the grounds of a beautiful farm by a river. The weather was warm and the music entertaining. We were having fun. One evening, our kids, along with many others, were playing in the river, near a disused mill. While chatting with my wife on the bank, I got the sense that something was wrong. Acting largely on instinct, I waded into the river, fully clothed. It became apparent that a child was under the water and struggling. I was able to get to and pull the child to safety. The child turned out to be my six year old. We were shaken and immensely relieved after our near miss.

One or two way doors (Bezos)

One common pitfall for large organisations, one that hurts speed and inventiveness, is one-size-fits-all decision making. - Jeff Bezos

Jeff Bezos categorises decisions as either One Way Door or Two Way Door decisions.

Some decisions are so consequential or hard to reverse that they are termed One Way Door decisions. If we go through the door, it would be impossible or very difficult to come back. These decisions should be considered slowly and carefully by senior management. One such decision that Amazon made was the standard height of their warehouses. While perhaps not the most exciting decision, it would have been very costly to reverse it.

In contrast, most decisions are Two Way Door decisions. We pick a door then walk through. If it turns out to be the wrong decision then we can go back and try another one. Two Way Door decisions should be made quickly by individuals or small teams.

Jeff Bezos believes that decisions based on compromises are poor decisions. Comprises are made for social rather than business reasons.

First principles thinking (Musk)

I think it’s important to reason from first principles rather than by analogy. The normal way we conduct our lives is we reason by analogy. With analogy we are doing this because it’s like something else that was done, or it is like what other people are doing. With first principles you boil things down to the most fundamental truths and then reason up from there. - Elon Musk

Elon Musk makes decisions based on first principles thinking. This is a scientific or physics way of looking at the world. It takes a lot more mental energy relative to reasoning by analogy. When Elon has a choice to make between two options, all else being equal, he will tend to choose the simpler, faster, more agile of the two.

Connecting the dots (Jobs)

You can't connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backward. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. - Steve Jobs

Steve Jobs was a perfectionist; details mattered. Artistically inclined, he highly valued intangibles, such as aesthetics and design. Steve said, Microsoft has no taste. They don’t think of original ideas or bring much culture into their products.

When it came to decision making, gut feeling, vision and life dreams were guiding principles. Decisions had to align with the big picture. When Steve came back to Apple in 1997, he radically streamlined the product range. Those that did not form part of his coherent whole were killed.

Other resources

Balancing Explore v Exploit Data Tradeoffs post by Phil Martin

When to Stop Searching and Choose post by Phil Martin

Entering a Wiltshire farm river in Summer 2006 was the most important decision I ever made.

Have fun.

Phil…

1 Comment
2024/06/29
21:23 UTC

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