/r/DecisionTheory
Statistical decision theory and utility theory.
Statistical decision theory is concerned with making optimal decisions under statistical uncertainty, often maximizing expected utility. It can be applied to many areas such as economics, medicine, finance, and business, and draws heavily on Bayesian statistics, meta-analysis, optimization, POMDPs, reinforcement learning, causal modeling, game theory, and operations research. Goals include cost-benefit analyses (calculating expected utility of specific choices), defining relevant loss functions, the value of perfect data and the optimal amount of data to gather, balancing taking (estimated) optimal actions with learning about other suboptimal actions, inferring causal mechanisms in an environment, eliciting expert beliefs for priors, and examining sensitivity of conclusions about decisions to the data or modeling choices. Discussion of underlying philosophical issues like Newcomb's dilemma is permitted (but try to not be tedious).
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/r/DecisionTheory
Hi all,
After covering basic statistics and probability through online resources like YouTube, I'm eager to dive deeper. Can you recommend decision theory books?
Looking for clear explanations and accessibility.
Thanks!
Hi everyone, I recently wrote my thesis on the concept of hard choices (decision-making in cases of incompleteness), what problems they pose for AI decision-making and how we may solve these problems.
Please check it out if you think it might interest you. I'd love to hear what you think about it, and any interesting insights or comments, both positive and negative. Thanks!
rienksrafael.wordpress.com/2023/09/28/empowering-ai-to-make-hard-choices/