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The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

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Full Article: https://cepa.org/article/want-to-stop-a-russian-invasion-guard-your-airport/

Airports have been a primary target during Russian invasions and military operations. How can countries can deter Russian attacks by defending their major civilian and military airbases?

• When Russia invades other countries, it often begins by seizing a major airport using airborne troops (paratroopers and helicopters). This allows them to airlift in more troops and vehicles for their invasion.
• Some examples of successful Russian airport seizures include Prague in 1968 and Crimea in 2014. However, their attempt to seize Hostomel Airport near Kyiv in 2022 failed after facing resistance from Ukrainian troops.
• Even though the Ukrainians guarding the airport were only 200 conscripts, they managed to delay the Russians long enough for reinforcements to arrive. This showed the flaws in Russia's planning and execution of the operation.
• While defending airports cannot stop a full-scale Russian invasion, it can complicate their plans and offer some level of deterrence. Countries like the Baltic states and Georgia should station troops at major airports near cities to deny Russia an easy foothold.
• Guarding airports does not require a huge military effort, but could force Russia to fight for airbases instead of easily seizing them. This makes invasions riskier and may act as a deterrent against Russian aggression.

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The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

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Please do:

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* Be curious not judgmental,

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* Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

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Brief summary today:

• Iran took ship
• Iran launched drones, missiles
• Israel hit Hezbollah
• US, UK shot down drones in Iraq and Syria

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The war in Ukraine has been an eye opener for me especially seeing the gradual shifting and difference in artillery operation.

The West has placed more emphasis on precision (Excalibur, GPS guided HIMARS munitions) while e.g Russia and NK priorities area saturations (Barrages, MLRS saturation of grids squares)

1.What are some of the future developments stemming from today's conflicts? (More rocket vs towed artilleries/SPHs, Technological bottleneck in shell range, more medium ranged ballistic missiles options being available to MLRS platforms like PrSM?)

2.Will future developments see a gradual fusion of both doctrines e.g.guided cluster munitions, DPICM in a peer to peer conflict? (Due to factors like lack of air superiority, Abundant or lack of supply of shells)

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The Diplomatic Path to a Secure Ukraine

by George Beebe and Anatol Lieven

Summary

Conventional wisdom holds that a negotiated end to the Ukraine war is neither possible nor desirable. This belief is false.

It is also extremely dangerous for Ukraine’s future. The war is not trending toward a stable stalemate, but toward Ukraine’s eventual collapse. Russia has corrected many of the problems that plagued its forces during the first year of fighting and adopted an attrition strategy that is gradually exhausting Ukraine’s forces, draining American military stocks, and sapping the West’s political resolve. Sanctions have not crippled Russia’s war effort, and the West cannot fix Ukraine’s acute manpower problems absent direct intervention in the war. Ukraine’s best hope lies in a negotiated settlement that protects its security, minimizes the risks of renewed attacks or escalation, and promotes broader stability in Europe and the world.

Skeptics counter that Russia has no incentive to make meaningful concessions in a war it is increasingly winning. But this belief underestimates the gap between what Russia can accomplish through its own military efforts and what it needs to ensure its broader security and economic prosperity over the longer term. Russia can probably achieve some of its war aims by force, including blocking Ukraine’s membership in NATO and capturing much of the territory it regards as historically and culturally Russian. But Russia cannot conquer, let alone govern, the majority of Ukraine, nor can Russia secure itself against the ongoing threats of Ukrainian sabotage or potential NATO strikes absent a costly permanent military buildup that would undermine its civilian economy. Reducing the deep dependence on China created by the invasion will also sooner or later require Russia to seek some form of détente with the West.

As a result, the United States has significant leverage for bringing Russia to the table and forging verifiable agreements to end the fighting. But this leverage will diminish over time. The United States should therefore quickly challenge Putin to make good on his insistence that Russia is willing to negotiate by publicly supporting calls from China, Brazil, and other key Global South actors for talks to end the war. And to help build trust and bolster dialogue, American officials should reach out to Russian representatives through both formal channels and a strictly confidential “back channel” that would facilitate sensitive discussions. Given deep Russian doubts about U.S. intentions, our outreach will have to include signals that we are prepared to discuss Moscow’s concerns about NATO expansion in the context of a Ukraine settlement.

Ukraine’s best hope lies in a negotiated settlement that protects its security, minimizes the risks of renewed attacks or escalation, and promotes broader stability in Europe and the world.

No settlement will endure unless Ukraine, Russia, and the West all see it as sufficiently serving their interests and as preferable to continued war. But we need not and should not simply trust that all parties will abide by its terms. Moscow and Washington have decades of useful Cold War experience in constructing, implementing, and monitoring a wide range of security agreements despite mutual distrust and broader geopolitical competition. While formidable, the obstacles to success are not insurmountable.

By combining defensive aid to Ukraine with a vigorous diplomatic offensive, the United States could secure independence for the vast bulk of Ukraine, provide a viable path toward its prosperity, and mitigate the dangers of long-term confrontation with Russia in Europe. This would not constitute a complete victory, but it would still be a monumental achievement.

George Beebe

George Beebe spent more than two decades in government as an intelligence analyst, diplomat, and policy advisor, including as director of the CIA’s Russia analysis, director of the CIA’s Open Source Center, and as a staff advisor on Russia matters to Vice President Cheney. His book, The Russia Trap: How Our Shadow War with Russia Could Spiral into Nuclear Catastrophe (St. Martin’s Press, 2019), warned how the United States and Russia could stumble into a dangerous military confrontation. Prior to joining QI, George was Vice President and Director of Studies at the Center for the National Interest and before that he served as president of a technology company that measured the impact of events, issues, and advertising campaigns on audience views. He speaks Russian and German.

Anatol Lieven

*Anatol Lieven directs the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. He was formerly a professor at Georgetown University in Qatar and in the War Studies Department of King’s College London. He also served as a member of the advisory committee of the South Asia Department of the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office and of the academic board of the Valdai discussion club in Russia. He holds a BA and PhD in history and political science from Cambridge University in England.

From 1985 to 1998, Lieven worked as a journalist in South Asia, the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe and covered the wars in Afghanistan, Chechnya and the southern Caucasus. From 2000 to 2007 he worked at think tanks in Washington DC.

Lieven is author of several books on Russia and its neighbors including The Baltic Revolutions: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and the Path to Independence (Yale University Press, 1993), Chechnya: Tombstone of Russian Power? (Yale University Press, 1998), and Ukraine and Russia: A Fraternal Rivalry (US Institute of Peace, 1999). His book Pakistan: A Hard Country (Penguin UK, 2011) is on the official reading lists for US and British diplomats serving in that country. His latest book, Climate Change and the Nation State, was published in March 2020 and in an updated paperback edition in Fall 2021.*

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Comment guidelines:

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Please do:

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Good day everyone, recently, I've taken interest in the Nigerian Civil War, also known by some as the Biafran War as well. The war is probably well recognized for the polarising attitudes world powers from both the East and the West had when taking sides in the crisis, the starving innocence's and loss of life which has been tragic during the course of the conflict.

However, this war had also highlighted a series of military Innovations that had personally shocked me, from the development of non guided rocket weapon systems to having the ability to refine their own crude oil during the course of the war, the military innovations that developed from the republic of Biafra was no short but impressive during its 3 years of existence, which personally, had been no short, but impressive and shocking.

In this post, I would like to learn from your inputs about the effectiveness of the Biafran military in their operations against the Nigerian Federal army through their tactics and their military innovations, and what's everyone thoughts on the Biafran Armed Forces generally.

Thank you everyone for your time, I'm looking forward for your inputs.

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Hello, first off I want to say this is my first post in this subreddit.

Now, I want to jump straight in to the topic of discussion. There is a growing need to increase logistics capabilities among NATO allies with Ukraine having been at war with Russia for over 2 years, conflicts emerging elsewhere, and heightened tensions. Russia has invested enormously in ramping up shell and ammunition production, including purchasing assets from states like North Korea. Many NATO allies have been slow to respond. There are a variety of reasons for this, including fear of further escalating tensions and kicking off an arms race with uninvolved/loosely involved nations like China, but that is not what I want to focus on. This is a thread about logistics and economics, not international politics and game theory (except where these overlap with logistics and economics).

What I want to focus on is, in a world of publicly traded defense contractors, how much of the investment in additional logistics capabilities should come from national governments, and how much should come from the defense contractors actually producing (and selling) these military assets? In particular, I want to focus attention on the case of Canada and it's M-107 mortar shell production, vs the "more lethal and accurate 155 millimetre round known as the M-795 variant". https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadian-armed-forces-artillery-shells-nato-ukraine-wayne-eyre-1.6988281

Canada produces 3,000 of the 155 millimetre artillery shells per month under a framework called the Munitions Supply Program. It's a standing arrangement with five private sector companies — the most prominent being General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems Canada (GDOT-C) — to maintain stocks and provide surge capacity in times of crisis.

General Dynamics and the other suppliers were requesting $200 million in investment for munitions plant upgrades, then later that was revised to $400 million. This would purely be to create the capabilities to produce those shells. The government would still need to purchase those more expensive M-795 variant shells from General Dynamics et al.

My first impression was: "this seems like a no-brainer. Our allies have an acute need for these munitions, and we have the capabilities to upgrade existing facilities to produce them." But then I re-read it, and this quote stuck out:

"This is the hottest, perhaps the hottest military commodity in the world right now." said Conservative MP Pat Kelly during last week's defence committee hearing. "Why is there no urgency on getting the production ramped up?"

If they are such a hot commodity (and I have no doubt they are), why is General Dynamics not investing in a facility to produce more of them? Why do they require subsidization of upgrades to the production line to produce these, when General Dynamics will own the production lines and sell the shells at a profit into a market where these are in short supply? I understand concerns by General Dynamics et al that the war in Ukraine might end, and there would be less acute demand. Wouldn't guaranteed purchasing plans for these shells (i.e. a buyer of last resort, at pre-established prices) be a better arrangement to de-risk investing in production lines? That seems like a more natural solution than handing publicly traded companies with shareholders $400 million to invest in production capabilities.

A more recent update on this is that story is available here: https://www.thedefensepost.com/2024/03/08/canada-ammunition-production/

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