/r/CredibleDefense

Photograph via snooOG

This is a forum dedicated to civil and informed discussion of military and defense issues and to bring better public understand of related topics. As such, our rules are more stringent than the typical subreddit.

  • Wiki Glossary of Common Terms and Abbreviations. (Request an addition)

  • Strive to be informative, professional, gracious, and encouraging in your communications with other members here. Imagine writing to a superior in the Armed Forces, or a colleague in a think tank or major investigative journal.

  • General Rules

    • No blind partisanship. We aim to study defense, not wage wars behind keyboards. Defense views from or about all countries are welcome so long as they are credible.

    • Do not "link drop", where a comment's just a link to an article or news source without any details, clarification, elaboration or analysis. Your fellow users prefer at least a few sentences indicating why we should care, with context or insight.

    • If you have experience in relevant fields, understand your limitations. Just because you work in the defense arena does not mean you are always correct.

    • This is not at all intended to be US centric; posts relating to other countries are highly encouraged.

    • Don’t be abrasive/insulting.

    • No AI-generated conten, image macros, GIFs, emojis or memes.

    • No Leaked Material - Please do not submit or otherwise link to classified material. And please take discussions of classified material to a more secure location.

    • No denial of war crimes or genocide.

    Comments

    • Should be substantive and contribute to discussion.

    • No one-liners, jokes, insults, shorthand, etc. Avoid excessive sarcasm or snark.

    • Sources are highly encouraged, but please do not link to low quality sources such as RT, New York Post, The National Interest, CGTN, etc. unless they serve a useful purpose.

    • Be polite and informative to others here, and remember that we should be able to disagree without being disagreeable.

    • Do not accuse or personally challenge others, rather ask them for sources and why they have their opinions.

    • Do not ask others their background as it is rude and not encouraging of others to have an open discussion.

    • Please do no not make irrelevant jokes, offtopic pun threads, use sarcasm, respond to a title of a piece without reading it, or in general make comments that adds nothing to the discussion. Please refrain from top-level jokes. Humor is appreciated, but it should be safe for a professional environment and infrequent.

    • Please do not blindly advocate for a side in a conflict, or a country in general. Surely there are many patriots here, but this is not the arena to fight those battles.

    • Asking questions in the comment section of a submission, or in a megathread, is a great way to start a conversation and learn.

    Submissions

    • Text posts only. This does not mean links are banned, rather, they should be submitted as part of the text post. Posts should not be quick updates or short term. They should hold up and be readable over time, so you will be glad that you read them months or years from now.

    • Links should go to credible, high quality sources (academia, government, think tanks), and the body should be a brief summary plus some comments on what makes it good or insightful.

    • Essays/Effortposts are encouraged. Essays/Effortposts are text posts you make which have an underlying thesis or attempt to synthesize information. They should cite sources, be well-written, and be relatively long. An example of an excellent effortpost is this.

    • Please use the original title of the work (or a descriptive title; de-editorializing/de-clickbaiting is acceptable), and possibly a sub headline.

    • Refrain from submissions that are quick updates in title form, troop movements, ship deployments, terrorist attacks, announcements, or the crisis du jour.

    • Discussions of opinion pieces by distinguished authors, historical research, and the research of warfare relating to national security issues is encouraged.

    • We are primarily a reading forum, so please no image macros, gifs, emojis or memes.

    • All posts will be manually approved by moderators.

    Please report items which violate these rules. We don’t know about it unless you point it out.

    Credible Outlets

    We maintain lists of sources so that anyone can help to find interesting open source material to share. As outlets wax and wane in quality, please help us keep the list updated:

    https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/credibleoutlets

    /r/CredibleDefense

    96,363 Subscribers

    20

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread March 26, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    51 Comments
    2024/03/26
    12:00 UTC

    52

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread March 25, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    294 Comments
    2024/03/25
    12:01 UTC

    71

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread March 24, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    373 Comments
    2024/03/24
    12:00 UTC

    74

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread March 23, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    292 Comments
    2024/03/23
    12:00 UTC

    78

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread March 22, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    633 Comments
    2024/03/22
    12:00 UTC

    76

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread March 21, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    409 Comments
    2024/03/21
    12:00 UTC

    78

    The Spirit of the Age: Clausewitz on Limited and Absolute War

    In this post I discuss Clausewitz’s view of the history of war and how the spirit of the age determines its conduct. In the wake of Prussia’s defeat in the War of the Fourth Coalition Clausewitz sought to understand why Prussia’s army, once vaunted as Europe’s premier force, has humiliated itself against the French.

    The answer he found was in the “spirit of the age.” While the phrase is poetic, Clausewitz speaks of the socio-political conditions. It is these that determine how war can be waged. The French Revolution brought forth forces of nationalism that allowed a more absolute form of war to be fought against which the Prussian army prepared for limited “cabinet” wars could not contend.

    Crucially, Clausewitz does not recognize a particular form of war as “superior.” In his view, Napoleon’s methods were successful because they aligned with the socio-political conditions that existed (the spirit of the age) but would have been unsuited to the period of limited wars that preceded the revolution. He rejects any idea of progression towards a more perfect (or even a more absolute) form of war.

    Thus, in Clausewitz’s view, the key challenge is in successfully identifying the spirit of the age and the kind of wars it will produce. Failure to do so risks national ruin, as Clausewitz found out the hard way.

    2 Comments
    2024/03/20
    19:20 UTC

    62

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread March 20, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    209 Comments
    2024/03/20
    12:00 UTC

    39

    The Collapse of Russian Arms Exports - Competitors, Ukraine & The Future of Russian Exports

    Video URL:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wdap15tWnfI

    Timestamps:

    • 00:00 — Opening Words
    • 01:18 — What Am I Talking About?
    • 02:00 — Caveats & Notes
    • 02:55 — The Russian Market Collapse
    • 14:57 — What is Driving the Decline?
    • 27:15 — Filling the Void?
    • 35:32 — Why Russian Exports Matter
    • 45:04 — What Next for the Russian Arms Sector?
    • 55:15 — Channel Update

    For decades, the USSR and then the Russian Federation competed with the US to dominate the global arms market. In 2023, according to SIPRI, Russia didn't even make the top five list of exporters.

    In this episode, I look at the evolution of Russian arms exports in 2022 and 2023, examine the drivers, and look at some of the nations (like France) that have taken market share as Russia drops.

    As evident from the video description, Perun claims that the arms exports industry of the Russian Federation is yet another victim of the Putin's senseless war in Ukraine. I would be very interested in your opinion on the matter.

    8 Comments
    2024/03/18
    23:44 UTC

    166

    The Attritional Art of War: Lessons from the Russian War on Ukraine

    The Attritional Art of War: Lessons from the Russian War on Ukrain

    By Alexander Vershinin

    A truly excellent article discussing the weaknesses and gaps in the Western strategic thinking revealed by the war in Ukraine. That I agree with what Vershinin is saying is an understatement. The cavalier attitude with which the military leaderships of Western states ignore the lessons of the attritional war in Ukraine, or reject it as "something that could not happen to us", is beyond the pale. Quantity has a quality of its own, and the entire West these days is one big British professional army in the early days of WW1 - meticulously trained and equipped, but with no depth to absorb losses or generate new troops. Anyway, back to what the far smarter Vershinin says:

    • The attritional strategy, centred on defence, is counterintuitive to most Western military officers. Western military thought views the offensive as the only means of achieving the decisive strategic goal of forcing the enemy to come to the negotiating table on unfavourable terms. The strategic patience required to set the conditions for an offensive runs against their combat experience acquired in overseas counterinsurgency operations.

    • Unfortunately, many in the West have a very cavalier attitude that future conflicts will be short and decisive. This is not true. Even middling global powers have both the geography and the population and industrial resources needed to conduct an attritional war. The thought that any major power would back down in the case of an initial military defeat is wishful thinking at its best. Any conflict between great powers would be viewed by adversary elites as existential and pursued with the full resources available to the state. The resulting war will become attritional and will favour the state which has the economy, doctrine and military structure that is better suited towards this form of conflict.

    • The conduct of attritional wars is vastly different from wars of manoeuvre. They last longer and end up testing a country's industrial capacity. Victory is assured by careful planning, industrial base development and development of mobilisation infrastructure in times of peace, and even more careful management of resources in wartime.

    • Attritional war focuses on destroying enemy forces and their ability to regenerate combat power, while preserving one's own. In this context, a successful strategy accepts that the war will last at least two years and be broken into two distinct phases.

    • The first phase ranges from initiation of hostilities to the point where sufficient combat power has been mobilised to allow decisive action. It will see little positional shifting on the ground, focusing on favourable exchange of losses and building up combat power in the rear. The dominant form of combat is fires rather than manoeuvre, complemented by extensive fortifications and camouflage. The peacetime army starts the war and conducts holding actions, providing time to mobilise resources and train the new army.

    • The second phase can commence after one side has met the following conditions.

    1. Newly mobilised forces have completed their training and gained sufficient experience to make them combat-effective formations, capable of rapidly integrating all their assets in a cohesive manner.
    2. The enemy's strategic reserve is exhausted, leaving it unable to reinforce the threatened sector.
    3. Fires and reconnaissance superiority are achieved, allowing the attacker to effectively mass fires on a key sector while denying the enemy the same.
    4. The enemy's industrial sector is degraded to the point where it is unable to replace battlefield losses. In the case of fighting against a coalition of countries, their industrial resources must also be exhausted or at least accounted for.
    • Only after meeting these criteria should offensive operations commence. They should be launched across a broad front, seeking to overwhelm the enemy at multiple points with shallow attacks. The intent is to remain inside a layered bubble of friendly protective systems, while stretching depleted enemy reserves until the front collapses. Only then should the offensive extend towards objectives deeper in the enemy rear.

    • If the West is serious about a possible great power conflict, it needs to take a hard look at its industrial capacity, mobilisation doctrine and means of waging a protracted war, rather than conducting wargames covering a single month of conflict and hoping that the war will end afterwards. As the Iraq War taught us, hope is not a method.

    Alex Vershinin

    Lt. Col. Alex Vershinin commissioned as a second lieutenant, branched armor, in 2002. He has 10 years of frontline experience in Korea, Iraq, and Afghanistan, including four combat tours. Since 2014, he has worked as a modeling and simulations officer in concept development and experimentation field for NATO and the U.S. Army, including a tour at the U.S. Army Sustainment Battle Lab, where he led the experimentation scenario team.

    144 Comments
    2024/03/19
    13:06 UTC

    61

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread March 19, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    215 Comments
    2024/03/19
    12:00 UTC

    93

    UK Parliament Heard Oral Evidence about the Global Combat Air Programme

    Index page

    Uncorrected transcript, part 1

    Uncorrected transcript, part 2

    Video of the meeting

    Witnesses: Prof Bronk, RUSI; Osbourne, Aviation Week; Prof Taylor, RUSI; Retter, RAND Europe.

    ----------------------------------------

    • 2035 is a non-negotiable deadline for the Japanese, because their enemy, China, is already at the gates. Besides, Japan thinks that project delays will greatly exacerbate cost overruns.
    • In order to limit cost and stay within the 2035 deadline, GCAP won't have anything "exquisite". Bronk subtly hinted GCAP will be more likely a 5.5-gen instead of 6-gen fighter. This will also make the plane more exportable: cheaper, less technologically sensitive, and an earlier delivery against competitors on the market.
    • Osbourne roasted Germany about its actions in the Eurofighter programme. Bronk also roasted Germany about its role in the French SCAF, saying France will probably kick Germany out.
    • Japan has a higher capability requirement than UK or Italy, since China is more difficult than Russia. This may cause disagreement further in the programme.
    • Bronk said, "If we do not participate in GCAP, BAE Systems and the UK as a whole would for ever lose the ability to be end-to-end fighter developers and manufacturers. In that sense, it is absolutely essential if our sovereign choice is to remain in that game. It is the only way to do it."
    • A milestone to watch will be the establishment of an "industrial construct", something similar to a joint venture (or exactly a joint venture). This is expected to happen in 2024.
    • The current procurement strategy looks like this: have exactly one industrial voice and have exactly one customer voice. The single customer is already established: the trilateral intergovernmental organization, GIGO.
    17 Comments
    2024/03/18
    16:58 UTC

    63

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread March 18, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    267 Comments
    2024/03/18
    12:00 UTC

    72

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread March 17, 2024

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    229 Comments
    2024/03/17
    12:00 UTC

    76

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread March 16, 2024

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    324 Comments
    2024/03/16
    12:00 UTC

    65

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread March 15, 2024

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    179 Comments
    2024/03/15
    12:00 UTC

    78

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread March 14, 2024

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    336 Comments
    2024/03/14
    12:00 UTC

    79

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread March 13, 2024

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    355 Comments
    2024/03/13
    12:00 UTC

    80

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread March 12, 2024

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    287 Comments
    2024/03/12
    12:00 UTC

    75

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread March 11, 2024

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    280 Comments
    2024/03/11
    12:01 UTC

    74

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread March 10, 2024

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    123 Comments
    2024/03/10
    12:00 UTC

    0

    Analyzing Russian Banzai Tactics: Meat Trickles Eroding Ukrainian Defenses (translation of article by Yigal Levin, Israeli military officer)

    Why do Russians sometimes conduct banzai attacks with many very small groups acting separately? Literally, as squads, not even platoon-sized forces.

    One reason is as a way to avoid a chain reaction during panic. The discipline of Russian soldiers is maintained through violence - they fear their own more than the Ukrainians. But when ending up in terrifying situations, when they start getting killed in bunches even just on the approaches, like targets, it has been noticed that when in a large group, they try to retreat, abandoning the lines they managed to reach, exposing themselves to attack even more.

    The saying "everyone ran away, so I ran too" perfectly describes this phenomenon. Panic is wildly contagious and works with large formations. When hell is going on around you on the battlefield, and you have no idea what's just to your left or right, finding out that someone over there is taking off gives you the stimulus to try to get out of that hell as quickly as possible too. Like, those guys over there are running away, so if they're running, maybe it's an order and I just didn't hear it, or they found out something we don't know, or there's going to be such mayhem here soon and they know about it, and I'm not an idiot to stay alone.

    Panic, started by one or two, can easily spread through a chain reaction to large formations. Entire platoons and companies can easily flee, abandoning their positions. Incidentally, this is precisely why in all armies and times, the harshest punishment - from execution on the spot to strict repression and tribunals - was given to panickers and cowards.

    But if you break up the advancing units into tiny groups of 2-5 people, then panic simply cannot spread beyond that squad. Moreover, it's easy to run when in a crowd, when no one will figure it out anyway. Again, the psychology of "everyone ran away, so I ran too" kicks in. But when you have a tiny squad of just a man or two, then in a crisis situation where you could die, the opposite biological mechanisms kick in, like hiding, hunkering down, going to ground, helping your comrade-in-arms.

    This is precisely what Russian officers are counting on. Those tiny groups who survived and reached a point should secure it and wait for the next tiny group and then another. Not one huge meat wave, but a trickle of meat - by that logic, a constant drip hollows out the stone. Meaty drips slowly erode the Ukrainian defense.

    Moreover, if at the new point among the corpses and piles of burnt iron, say, two survived, Ukrainians may pay less attention to it, like, two bums, the drone operators will soon finish them off anyway. But at night, two more join them, and by morning there are already ten of them, and there they are, deep in their new holes, and it turns out that the foothold has been taken, the Russian forces advanced another couple hundred meters.

    Russian officers are experimenting with their meat waves, breaking them up into meaty droplets and trickles.

    Link to OP: https://t.me/yigal_levin/63526

    17 Comments
    2024/03/09
    13:36 UTC

    68

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread March 09, 2024

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    299 Comments
    2024/03/09
    13:00 UTC

    75

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread March 08, 2024

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    398 Comments
    2024/03/08
    13:01 UTC

    72

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread March 07, 2024

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    314 Comments
    2024/03/07
    13:00 UTC

    70

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread March 06, 2024

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    307 Comments
    2024/03/06
    13:00 UTC

    162

    Why do so many europeans ascribe almost nefatious intentions to France's defense policy ?

    Whenever i read posts on european defence topics or adjacent there's always this critique of the french position that can be sumed up as "They only talk about strategic autonomy because they want to sell us weapons and replace the USA".

    This often comes up when the french govt criticize things like the European Sky Shield Initiative for example.

    From my biaised point of view there are reasons why i belive these statements have a leg to stand on.

    First i belive those words ("European strategic autonomy") are not just empty rethoric to sell guns, France has in that domain led by example for decades at it's own national scale ( nuclear deterence, allowed itself to have diverging opinions from the USA, kept it's defense industry alive ). We could also add the central role that france had in the construction of the EU as a counterweight to the other big players.

    Second the idea that we can allow ourselves to rely on the USA for decades to come. Europe and the USA have a lot in common and im very much pro NATO but the fact is that our intrests will continue to diverge, Biden will be the last of those cold war warriors who view europe and russia as the main theater. Republicans dont care and Democrats wont for much longer i belive, the pivot to asia is very much happening.

    Some of those defence investments are ment to stay in service for a looooong time wich means that if all the money spent in the years to come is just sent to the other side of the atlantic well just end up in the exact same spot a few decades from now and with no industry on EU soil to show for it.

    All in all yes france would stand to gain as a byproduct of the fact that it held those view of strategic autonomy for decades (thus the defense industry is there) but i belive the geopolitical preocupations are much more important.

    144 Comments
    2024/03/05
    18:18 UTC

    62

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread March 05, 2024

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    397 Comments
    2024/03/05
    13:00 UTC

    90

    Containing Global Russia - War on the Rocks

    Containing Global Russia

    by Hanna Notte and Michael Kimmage

    One of the more reasonable hawkish analyses of the current state of affairs, free of the usual "rule-based international order" and "unprovoked aggression" mantras. The paper recognises that the USA is facing serious challenges on the global level and that a quick victory, hoped for in 2022, is now out of reach.

    I think that the authors' recommendations (containment, economic pressure, helping Ukraine) are valid. It just remains to be seen whether the USA that had the will and wherewithal to pursue a similar long-term policy 1947-1991, can marshal the same qualities today.

    • In 2024, with Russian expansive tendencies once again in evidence, the global thrust of Kennan’s thinking is as salient as his recommendation that U.S. policy cohere around the idea of containment.

    • Russia has recalibrated its entire foreign policy to fit the needs of a long struggle.

    • The four pillars of Russia’s global foreign policy are self-preservation, decompartmentalization, fragmentation, and integration.

    • For Putin, Russia’s economic break with the West may not have been an opportunity cost of the war. It may have been one of the war’s strategic objectives.

    • Having shown in 2014 and again in 2022 that Russia’s economy can ride out Western sanctions, Putin has reduced the efficacy of future Western sanctions, a virtuous circle for him.

    • The West-Russia relations are decompartmentalizing - key international agreements unrelated to the war in Ukraine are being dropped.

    • With this, Russia is sending several signals: that something resembling a state of war obtains between Russia and the West; that for Russia to give an inch on any one issue might mean undermining itself on other issues; and that winning the war in Ukraine is a priority far above the value that cooperation on arms control, climate change, or the Arctic.

    • Russia has also grown more obstructionist in multilateral institutions. At the U.N. Security Council, the fragile modus vivendi that had still held between Russia and Western states in 2022 also became more precariousover time. The paralysis cannot be blamed on Russia alone: Western diplomats took their grievances with Russia over Ukraine to each and every forum, alienating counterparts from the Global South.

    • Post-invasion demands by Western states that the Global South fall in line with their position on Ukraine have backfired spectacularly.

    • Post-invasion demands by Western states that the Global South fall in line with their position on Ukraine have backfired spectacularly.

    • The USA should fight all four Russian pillars of global policy, but most importantly defend Ukraine:

    • " If Moscow wins the war, its efforts to remake international order will accelerate. A Russia in control of Ukraine would feel more self-confident, and it would suffer from fewer resource constraints. Its appeal as a partner to non-Western states would grow, while Western credibility in Europe and elsewhere would be in ruins. Russia’s global game runs through Ukraine. That is where it must be stopped."

    Hanna Notte, Ph.D., is director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and a nonresident senior associate with the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Her work focuses on Russia’s foreign and security policy, the Middle East, and nuclear arms control and nonproliferation.

    Michael Kimmage is a professor of history at the Catholic University of America and a senior non-resident associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. His latest book is Collisions: The War in Ukraine and the Origins of the New Global Instability, which is due out with Oxford University Press on March 22.

    22 Comments
    2024/03/05
    01:40 UTC

    59

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread March 04, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

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    351 Comments
    2024/03/04
    13:00 UTC

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