/r/CredibleDefense

Photograph via snooOG

This is a forum dedicated to civil and informed discussion of military and defense issues and to bring better public understand of related topics. As such, our rules are more stringent than the typical subreddit.

  • Wiki Glossary of Common Terms and Abbreviations. (Request an addition)

  • Strive to be informative, professional, gracious, and encouraging in your communications with other members here. Imagine writing to a superior in the Armed Forces, or a colleague in a think tank or major investigative journal.

  • General Rules

    • No blind partisanship. We aim to study defense, not wage wars behind keyboards. Defense views from or about all countries are welcome so long as they are credible.

    • Do not "link drop", where a comment's just a link to an article or news source without any details, clarification, elaboration or analysis. Your fellow users prefer at least a few sentences indicating why we should care, with context or insight.

    • If you have experience in relevant fields, understand your limitations. Just because you work in the defense arena does not mean you are always correct.

    • This is not at all intended to be US centric; posts relating to other countries are highly encouraged.

    • Don’t be abrasive/insulting.

    • No AI-generated conten, image macros, GIFs, emojis or memes.

    • No Leaked Material - Please do not submit or otherwise link to classified material. And please take discussions of classified material to a more secure location.

    • No denial of war crimes or genocide.

    Comments

    • Should be substantive and contribute to discussion.

    • No one-liners, jokes, insults, shorthand, etc. Avoid excessive sarcasm or snark.

    • Sources are highly encouraged, but please do not link to low quality sources such as RT, New York Post, The National Interest, CGTN, etc. unless they serve a useful purpose.

    • Be polite and informative to others here, and remember that we should be able to disagree without being disagreeable.

    • Do not accuse or personally challenge others, rather ask them for sources and why they have their opinions.

    • Do not ask others their background as it is rude and not encouraging of others to have an open discussion.

    • Please do no not make irrelevant jokes, offtopic pun threads, use sarcasm, respond to a title of a piece without reading it, or in general make comments that adds nothing to the discussion. Please refrain from top-level jokes. Humor is appreciated, but it should be safe for a professional environment and infrequent.

    • Please do not blindly advocate for a side in a conflict, or a country in general. Surely there are many patriots here, but this is not the arena to fight those battles.

    • Asking questions in the comment section of a submission, or in a megathread, is a great way to start a conversation and learn.

    Submissions

    • Text posts only. This does not mean links are banned, rather, they should be submitted as part of the text post. Posts should not be quick updates or short term. They should hold up and be readable over time, so you will be glad that you read them months or years from now.

    • Links should go to credible, high quality sources (academia, government, think tanks), and the body should be a brief summary plus some comments on what makes it good or insightful.

    • Essays/Effortposts are encouraged. Essays/Effortposts are text posts you make which have an underlying thesis or attempt to synthesize information. They should cite sources, be well-written, and be relatively long. An example of an excellent effortpost is this.

    • Please use the original title of the work (or a descriptive title; de-editorializing/de-clickbaiting is acceptable), and possibly a sub headline.

    • Refrain from submissions that are quick updates in title form, troop movements, ship deployments, terrorist attacks, announcements, or the crisis du jour.

    • Discussions of opinion pieces by distinguished authors, historical research, and the research of warfare relating to national security issues is encouraged.

    • We are primarily a reading forum, so please no image macros, gifs, emojis or memes.

    • All posts will be manually approved by moderators.

    Please report items which violate these rules. We don’t know about it unless you point it out.

    Credible Outlets

    We maintain lists of sources so that anyone can help to find interesting open source material to share. As outlets wax and wane in quality, please help us keep the list updated:

    https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/credibleoutlets

    /r/CredibleDefense

    98,210 Subscribers

    46

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread July 09, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    186 Comments
    2024/07/09
    12:00 UTC

    66

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread July 08, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    141 Comments
    2024/07/08
    12:00 UTC

    64

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread July 07, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    172 Comments
    2024/07/07
    12:00 UTC

    52

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread July 06, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    197 Comments
    2024/07/06
    12:00 UTC

    61

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread July 05, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    60 Comments
    2024/07/05
    12:00 UTC

    32

    [Crosspost] We’re defense and security experts ready to answer questions about the NATO Summit! Ask us anything (July 5, 10 AM - 1 PM ET)

    1 Comment
    2024/07/04
    17:27 UTC

    52

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread July 04, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    79 Comments
    2024/07/04
    12:00 UTC

    45

    The effects of shelling an airport

    I'm wondering what the effects of shelling or using rocket arty on an airport/airbase/landing strip are.

    When I think about shelling an airport, I'm assuming that you're targeting the runway. Is it correct that the aircraft are probably under hardened bunkers that can't be penetrated? (Doable with bunker-busters?)

    When you shell a landing strip, does that BASICALLY make it inoperable? The craters in the runway would presumably make takeoff and landing impossible. (Anectdotally I know that a loaded jet hitting a mortar crater will flip over or something similar.) But what does that mean for the airfield or airbase? I'm wondering what happens in warfare today if you just throw cruise missiles at every airbase or airstrip.

    This question is really with respect to conflict between Taiwan and China. https://www.cfr.org/article/why-china-would-struggle-invade-taiwan I'm wondering what happens if China just shells (or uses rocket arty) on Taiwanese airstrips. Is the Taiwanese air force just useless? I think it sounds about right that Chinese rocket arty/regular howitzer arty can shell Taiwanese strips.

    How do I best further investigate this question?

    27 Comments
    2024/07/04
    00:11 UTC

    54

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread July 03, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    154 Comments
    2024/07/03
    12:00 UTC

    67

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread July 02, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    304 Comments
    2024/07/02
    12:00 UTC

    44

    Standard Missile 6 vs Patriot PAC-3 MSE

    The Patriot system has proved itself to continue to be highly highly capable through its use in the Second Russian Invasion of Ukraine and while defending United States military bases in the Middle East. With that said the Standard Missile 6 (SM-6) has also proven itself highly capable in recent military engagements in the Red Sea and potentially also defending Israel in April 2024.

    The SM-6 and Patriot PAC-3 MSE both have similar objectives in that they are optimized for area ballistic missile defense as well as being able to engage air breathing threats such as cruise missiles and aircraft (in theory they could engage drones but the cost benefit ratio would be horrible). Although the PAC-3 MSE has proven itself effective against threats it does have some rather significant drawbacks when compared to the SM-6. For starters the Patriot in its current configuration is still a one direction radar and launcher system in which the radar points in a specific direction and does not have 360 degree coverage and missiles are launched in a specific direction instead of vertically. Additionally the PAC-3 MSE appears to have a range of 75 miles although this could be an understatement for public consumption while the SM-6 has a claimed range of around 200 miles which again could be understated for public consumption.

    The US Army is beginning to field its new Ghost Eye family of radars for its Patriots systems as well as other air defense systems they will now have 360 degree radar coverage for their missile defense batteries. Additionally the US Army will be fielding the SM-6 as a quasi short range ballistic missile in its new Typhon system that also includes the BGM-109 Tomahawk Cruise Missile for land attack and anti surface ship warfare.

    With all of that said why does the US Army not begin to transition to using the SM-6 Missile for air defense purposes as well. The PAC-3 MSE costs 3.7 million dollars per missile while the SM-6 costs 3.9 million dollars per missile meaning that cost difference is most likely not a huge factor between the two of them. Could magazine depth be an issue where a single Patriot launcher can field 16 PAC-3 MSE missiles while it would probably only be able to house 4 SM-6 missiles on a single launcher? I also know that production rates could be an issue with Lockheed Martin moving towards a production rate of 650 PAC-3 MSE per year from its current 500 per year while RTX only appears to be able to ramp up to 300 SM-6 per year from its current rate of 150-200 per year, could this be one of the considerations for not adding the system to Patriot?

    TLDR: The SM-6 seems like it is just a better version of the PAC-3 in most respects while costing close to the same amount and the army has begun acquiring and fielding the SM-6 for land attack so why is it not incorporating it into the Patriot system for air defense as well.

    Sources:

    PAC-3 Overview: https://www.lockheedmartin.com/content/dam/lockheed-martin/mfc/documents/pac-3/2022-01-05_LM_PAC-3_MSE_Overview.pdf

    PAC-3 Range: https://www.thedefensepost.com/2024/03/07/lockheed-martin-bahrain-missile/

    PAC-3 Production Rate: https://www.defensenews.com/land/2024/04/09/how-companies-plan-to-ramp-up-production-of-patriot-missiles/

    New Patriot Radar: https://www.c4isrnet.com/electronic-warfare/radar/2023/11/20/raytheon-radar-defeats-missile-in-us-army-test-of-patriot-replacement/

    SM-6 Overview: https://missilethreat.csis.org/defsys/sm-6/

    SM-6 Range: https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/unique_sm_6_missile_system_with_longer_range_than_the_patriot_essential_for_the_ukrainian_army-9870.html

    SM-6 Production Rate: https://insidedefense.com/daily-news/dod-dials-sm-6-max-annual-production-capacity-target-300-guided-missiles-2028

    Typhon System: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12135

    Missile Cost: https://missiledefenseadvocacy.org/missile-defense-systems-2/missile-defense-systems/missile-interceptors-by-cost/

    15 Comments
    2024/07/01
    17:31 UTC

    57

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread July 01, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

    * Make it personal,

    * Try to out someone,

    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

    * Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

    Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

    147 Comments
    2024/07/01
    12:01 UTC

    64

    The Myth of Military Logic - Clausewitz on Civil-Military Relations

    In this post I go over the radical implications of Clausewitz’s most famous assertion for civil-military relations, and why officers have found it very difficult to live by the principle of the primacy of policy. In particular, I look at the way the appeal to “military logic” or “military necessity” has been used to undermine civilian control over the military using the Prussian case.

    I also use the case of Churchill and Alanbrooke to illustrate the difficulties in adhering to civilian control. Effectiveness in many cases depends on the ability of officers to be convincing and on the willingness of civilians to be convinced. Civil-military relations thus produce a tension where military experts must advocate their views while recognizing that civilian leadership retains final authority.

    I hope this (relatively) brief piece can start some discussion as to whether a) Clausewitz has it right and b) what this looks like in practice.

    7 Comments
    2024/07/01
    03:11 UTC

    16

    Collaborative Combat Aircraft

    The US Air Force is betting big on its future with a program called Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA).

    These so-called ‘loyal wingmen’ promise the allure of affordable, capable mass by combining cost-efficient air vehicles with exquisite autonomy—and doing it fast. The Air Force expects to buy 100+ CCAs by 2029, with an overarching goal of fielding 1,000+ CCAs and realizing the program’s goal of cost-effective scalability.

    Here is a unique interview with Anduril and General Atomics—the 2 companies selected to build the first air vehicles.

    It's loaded with discussions of hardware, software, program structure, competitive advantages, and the challenges of integrating CCAs into the Air Force within the service's desired timeline.

    https://youtu.be/nDX0GPIucFo?si=d_V_vZWDdSOjSPtb

    3 Comments
    2024/06/30
    13:28 UTC

    62

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 30, 2024

    The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

    Comment guidelines:

    Please do:

    * Be curious not judgmental,

    * Be polite and civil,

    * Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

    * Use capitalization,

    * Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

    * Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

    * Post only credible information

    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

    Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

    * Use foul imagery,

    * Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

    * Start fights with other commenters,

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    245 Comments
    2024/06/30
    12:00 UTC

    55

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 29, 2024

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    142 Comments
    2024/06/29
    12:00 UTC

    53

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 28, 2024

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    110 Comments
    2024/06/28
    12:00 UTC

    0

    Question on NATO's promises to not expand

    In Bonne, on March 6, 1991 the talks were held between high-ranking officials from the United States, the UK, France, and the Federal Republic of Germany. During them, FRG's foreign ministry spokesman Jürgen Chrobog reportedly said in a statement:

    We made it clear during the talks NATO will not expand beyond the Elbe. Therefore, we cannot [offer] membership in NATO to Poland and others

    The US’ Raymond Seitz reportedly agreed with Chrobog, saying:

    We made it clear to the Soviet Union that we will not [capitalize on] the withdrawal of the Soviet troops from Eastern Europe... NATO must not expand eastwards neither officially, nor inofficially

    Do these statements confirm that NATO made some verbal promises to not expand?

    48 Comments
    2024/06/28
    08:54 UTC

    70

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 27, 2024

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    260 Comments
    2024/06/27
    12:00 UTC

    72

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 26, 2024

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    348 Comments
    2024/06/26
    12:00 UTC

    87

    r/CredibleDefense conflicts survey (lurkers more than welcome to participate)

    Hey all,

    We are just curious to know where everyone's positions lie when it comes to the top 3 most discussed geopolitical conflicts in the world right now - China, Ukraine and Gaza.

    Please share your opinion on this link:

    https://take.supersurvey.com/QUP462D9G

    Special prizes to anyone who correctly guesses what the responses from the mod team are!

    EDIT - Had to get a 'premium' account to see more than 25 responses. I've signed up for the free trial period so this survey will be up for 7 days and you should be able to see all the responses now.

    75 Comments
    2024/06/25
    15:51 UTC

    54

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 25, 2024

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    246 Comments
    2024/06/25
    12:00 UTC

    68

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 24, 2024

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    187 Comments
    2024/06/24
    12:00 UTC

    24

    On the Battleship and modern Operational Equivalents

    Under advisement from Veqq I have converted this from a comment to a post. Here it goes:

    In regards to the retirement of the battleship and it’s irrelevance in the modern eras, it is commonly known that the transition from armor to evasion and detection based defenses has largely left such styles of ship irrelevant. Would a ship or system of ships oriented towards active defenses and anti-missile systems not fulfill the role of a “contemporary” battleship?

    Reading the debate and history of this topic, it’s clear that large gun systems on ships are losing relevance and naval combat is entering an era of missile/airborne attacks. My thoughts lead me towards considering a “sea borne iron dome” type ship or series of ships meant to fulfill the operational duties a battleship once held.

    Inherently, I believe a series of 2-3 integrated ships, designed to work in tandem (as we see greater connectivity emerge in both the fleet and service overall), combined with advanced automation, would be able to defend the fleet from peer to peer aerial threats while still being able to provide precision fire support to land based targets

    1. ⁠The centerpiece, likely the most expensive yet integral part of this theoretical system. Probably the largest piece as well. It would have to be equipped with powerful telecommunications equipment, strong computational systems as well as the ability to launch some form of awacs drone, loitering munition, or drone boats. It should have interference systems and the armament it could include is a large number of anti-ship missiles and anti-air capabilities (DEW?). It should composite data of the entire system to provide commanders a complete understanding of the battle space.
    2. ⁠The ferry, a small, cheap, low manpower ship, largely automated and interlinked with the centerpiece. This would carry a crap ton of missiles, AAM, ATGM, ASM, if you can name it, it should be aboard, short of nuclear warheads. This allows for a degree of reliability in peer to peer combat, should this part of the system be disabled or destroyed, ideally there would be several others in the fleet to easily fulfill its purpose. Should be able to be loaded with missiles easily and while at sea.
    3. ⁠The hound, the sensor systems and the “gun”. This is where this concept falters a bit. It could be another light ship like “the ferry” except armed with a rheinmetall styled air burst cannon, advanced sensor equipment and anti-air missiles. However, the idea of a low observability craft with powerful detection equipment and a coil/rail gun for land based fire support combined with anti-air missiles and more conventional anti-air systems also appeals. Obviously the latter would be more advanced/expensive and I see similarities to the littoral series and her failures.

    How does this fulfill the operational capabilities of a Battleship? The battleship was the shield of any fleet, protecting it from long range threat, providing fire support for ground elements, as well as powerful antiship capabilities (during an era where the defensive onion had only its first two layers) the moment aerial combat became a factor, such large beasts of war quickly had their weaknesses exposed, and to this day, air threat remains at the forefront of any captains mind. This system seeks to protect the whole fleet, whilst maintaining a hit and run capability and providing multiple vectors of assault. It could bring to bear the firepower of a battleship while negating many of the associated risks.

    How would this system be used in a theater of war? This system is designed with peer to peer combat in mind, or at least near peer to peer. A commander seeking to strike another fleet would use this system as follows.

    1. Obtain relevant enemy information (target identification, positions, armament, and retaliatory capability) utilizing forward set a ideally concealed sets of sensor ships
    2. Quickly designate targets of critical importance and begin preparations for strike whilst returning sensor ships to a state of concealment if broken
    3. Position missile warships in distanced clusters while maintaining central fleet concealment
    4. Begin strike from missile warships while monitoring enemy reaction with forward sensor ships
    5. Return missile ships to concealment whilst engaging countermeasures for enemy response
    6. Bring main fleet to bear once critical enemy defenses and capabilities are destroyed
    7. Utilize composited data to maintain control of battle space and to defend against enemy air attack or automated assaults.

    This system could be applied to existing ships, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this concept is being explored or implemented in the fleet.

    TLDR: I believe a distributed yet data-linked and integrated naval system of anti-air, anti-missile, and heavy strike weapons could fulfill the defensive and offensive objectives that battleships used to. Please show me why I am wrong or point out the flaws in this.

    38 Comments
    2024/06/23
    22:02 UTC

    66

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 23, 2024

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    341 Comments
    2024/06/23
    12:00 UTC

    60

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 22, 2024

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    277 Comments
    2024/06/22
    12:00 UTC

    62

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 21, 2024

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    229 Comments
    2024/06/21
    12:00 UTC

    106

    The South China Sea Dog that Hasn’t Barked … Yet (War on the Rocks)

    https://warontherocks.com/2024/06/the-south-china-sea-dog-that-hasnt-barked-yet/

    Zach Cooper, senior fellow at AEI

    Greg Poling, senior fellow at CSIS


    Recently, Vietnam has been quickly expanding in the Spratly Islands. Why has China done little to stop Vietnam, but instead focused its coercive effort on the Philippines? This article proposes four reasons.

    1. China is already preoccupied with the Philippines and does not want a two-front conflict.

    2. Vietnam is less likely to yield to pressure and more likely to escalate than the Philippines.

    3. Since the Philippines is a US ally, Philippine territory expansion in the SCS will equate to American expansion, which is too dangerous for China to tolerate. Meanwhile, Vietnam is less of a threat.

    4. China is more comfortable with Vietnam, a communist state. On the other hand, a democratic Philippines who put everything in the open (e.g. exposing bad behavior of China) is more irritating to China.

    The SCS has become a powder keg and escalation risk has been higher than ever. In the words of the authors, "deciphering Beijing’s logic should therefore be a top priority for both government officials and outside researchers, as it will provide valuable lessons about the likelihood of conflict in the months and years ahead."

    43 Comments
    2024/06/21
    04:06 UTC

    60

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 20, 2024

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    336 Comments
    2024/06/20
    12:00 UTC

    63

    CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 19, 2024

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    232 Comments
    2024/06/19
    12:00 UTC

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