Hi, does anybody know if there is a covid safe optometrist in Melbourne? Such as wearing a mask? Air purifier in room would be even better. Preferably inner-city or southside.

https://www.aumanufacturing.com.au/starpharmas-covid-killer-needs-action-not-bureaucracy-from-tga?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Does anyone know where I can buy genuine masks kid size- there are so many sites advertised on google it’s hard to know what is genuine. Thank you if you have one you use and recommend.

By 12 August 2024, 13.72 billion doses of COVID‑19 vaccines had been administered worldwide. If it is so dangerous there must be compelling evidence and data that the vax causes death and hospitalisation. Show me the numbers.

Note that "my sisters neighbour had the vax and died 3 days later" is not evidence.

Does anybody know if there is a covid-safe dentist in Melbourne still masking and using air purifier, etc?

Fives years into the pandemic, I thought it was a good milestone to see where we stood in terms of total cases here in Australia. 

• 2020: <1% of the population
• 2021: 2% (Jan to early Dec pre-Omicron)
• 2022: 73% (mid-Dec 2021 Omicron)
• 2023: 34%
• 2024: 40%

Total: 150% or about 40 million covid infections (1.5 each)

This likely underestimates the true cases by up to 30% due to high asymptomatic rates in some demographics and the accuracy rate of the nucleocapsid protein assays (~15% false negatives).

This would bump the value to about 200% or two infections per person on average. Even at two infections each, this is much lower than other estimates that I've seen, including the estimations used by the ATAGI.

Using FluTracker, we can also work out the likely non-covid symptomatic respiratory infections during this period

• 2020: 24%
• 2021: 21%
• 2022: 30%
• 2023: 38% 
• 2024: 41%

Total: 154% or about 40 million non-covid infections (1.5 each)

Combined, this suggests that on average, a person would have had three symptomatic infections over the last five years and there was a 50% chance of any of these were covid.

Note that covid infections are more likely in younger demographics (along with any primary caregivers), so infection rates are likely double in 5 to 25 year olds than say those in 45 to 65 year olds. Generally most non-covid symptomatic infections are in children and young adults as their immune systems aren't as mature, also causing a higher infection rate in this cohort. 

Anecdotally, I'm haven't had any respiratory infections without taking precautions/travelling a lot and my extended family/social group have only had a couple infections on average.

Workings

Base infection rate

The first couple of years saw mixed consistency in testing/reporting. From no tests in early 2020, to high levels of testing in mid 2020 to mid 2021, before a gradual drop of testing in late 2021 due to complacency and lack of availability. The testing rate fell massively over the start of 2022 and this is now almost non-existent in the last couple of years. 

Thankfully, the Kirby Institute surveys in 2022 set the likely early infection rate and allows us to compare various sources. The first Kirby Institute survey suggested that 17% of the population had been infected by late Feb 2022 and this was the base used for the other calculations.

Pre-Omicron era

The first Kirby seroprevalence survey showed that only about 70% of cases were reported as of Feb 2022, suggesting 1.4 million unreported cases over the first two years, however other early seroprevalence surveys confirmed only relatively low community infections in 2020.

Seroprevalence of SARS‐CoV‐2‐specific antibodies in Sydney after the first epidemic wave of 2020

• A small study done between 20 April – 2 June 2020, with 0.24% to 0.79% positivity rate for 20 to 39 year olds. 0.5% is probably a save guess. 
• 3,300 reported cases in NSW suggesting as many as many as 40,000 missed cases 

Seroprevalence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2-Specific Antibodies in Australia After the First Epidemic Wave in 2020: A National Survey

• A national serosurvey was undertaken between June 2020 and August 2020. A larger study that estimated 0.23% to 0.47% of the population had been exposed. 
• This suggests that only 1 in 4 or 5 covid cases were detected. 

Serological testing of blood donors to characterise the impact of COVID-19 in Melbourne, Australia, 2020

• Smaller study from 23 Nov to 17 Dec 2020 that suggested 0.87% of the population had been exposed. 
• This suggests that only 1 in 3 covid cases were detected

The seroprevalence of SARS‐CoV‐2‐specific antibodies in children, Australia, November 2020 – March 2021

• This study suggested around 0.23% of 0–19 year olds had been infected and if this reflected the general public.
• About half of the cases were missed.

These studies suggest high levels of missed cases within the community in the first half of 2020, but that testing rapidly increased and many more cases were detected later in 2020. Overall, the rate was very low, likely well under 1%.

This clearly shows that the majority of these missed cases occurred in 2021 and early 2022.

Looking at this period, the majority of these unreported cases almost certainly happened during the early Omicron era as testing facilities got overrun and widespread issues with RAT supplies. However, there were widespread infections in late 2021 in VIC and NSW, along with many untraced community cases in SA and QLD, so I settled on 2% infections in 2021 that represents about 515,000 cases or 294,000 missed cases. Either way, it's only ±1%.

2022

The four Kirby Institute surveys correlate strongly to the calculated FluTracker cases and the reported Residential Aged Care cases.

Phase 1: 23 Feb – 3 Mar 2022 17.0% (16.0–18.0% / n. 5185)

Phase 2: 9 Jun – 18 Jun 2022 46.2% (44.8– 47.6% / n. 5139)

• ∆ 29.2%
• FluTracker 25.1%
• Aged Care 23.2%

Phase 3: 23 Aug – 2 Sep 2022 65.2% (63.9– 66.5% / n. 5005)

• ∆ 19.0%
• FluTracker 18.8%
• Aged Care 25.4%

Phase 4: 29 Nov – 13 Dec 2022 70.8% (69.5– 72.0% / n. 4996)

• ∆ 5.6%
• FluTracker 11.6%
• Aged Care 11.6%

We are likely starting to see a small number of reinfections becoming more significant in this phase that helps to explain the larger FluTracker and Aged Care cases.

Overall

• ∆ 53.8%
• FluTracker 55.5% 
• Aged Care 60.0%

This appears to show that the FluTracker results are the best way to track cases. National Aged Care cases appear to be a good source too albeit these appears to overestimate cases during an outbreak, likely due to having a higher density of staff and residents within the facility (figure 1).

Figure 1: State / NNDSS, FluTracker and Residential Aged Care cases

The RAT adjusted NNDSS cases from 2023 and 2024 align best with the FluTracker numbers as well (figure 2), so this is the metric used to calculate the rate of infection since early 2022.

Figure 2: FluTracker and Residential Aged Care cases

FluTracker Calculations

This is done by using the assumption that people will first use a RAT test, which gives us the base positivity rate and retest if required using a PCR. This assumption is partially confirmed by the lower PCR positivity rates.

For example, a positivity rate of 50% from the RAT tests would suggest half of the total reported FluTracker infections have covid. If there was a 10% PCR positivity rate, the calculations assumed that this is a 10% positivity rate in those with a negative RAT test result. This gives a combined positivity rate of 55% and 55% of the reported FluTracker cases.

This calculation doesn't work in early 2022 and this survey appears to miss the initial Omicron spike being more set up for winter season outbreaks at the time. By around Feb/Mar 2022, the RAT/PCR calculations should apply, and it appears to track cases much better over summer now.

Aged Care Calculations

These are based on the 188,456 aged care residents reported in the vaccination rollout and a 1 to 5 staff to residents ratio (about the average nationally).

ABS population adjustments were done on all calculations where possible.

Do you think we’ll ever have another lockdown whether it be for a Covid jump or some other illness? Or is it something people just won’t accept next time around?

Just a 1.30 am pondering thought, no other reason behind the question.

Hi All,

Does anyone else feel sick living in Sydney and feel better as soon as they leave only to feel like crap again when they return? This is really strange and not something I've experienced in my life before, but that's precisely how things have felt since covid.

I’m wanting to get the booster soon but wondering if anyone felt knocked out this time around with the shot?

i (21) am a little conflicted whether i should mask at home on top of doing every time i step out the house. i mask every time i go to work or to buy groceries however, i am the only one who does so in my family. i have 2 younger sisters (19 and 15) , i have told them how they should mask as covid is still a thing however i am finding it hard to mask at home with them when i hangout with them. as i dont really have friends other than my two siblings who i consider as friends so i find it difficult to not want to talk to them. i know i can mask at home when hanging out with them at home but i feel it might be pointless if they dont mask as well as we are quite physically close when we watch a movie at home etc. i know i can get covid from them so what should i do?

Hi, would anyone be able to share what the incubation period for the most common covid19 variant is currently? I.e. the number of days between exposure and symptoms presenting and the positive RAT?

Thank you

Tested positive on New year's day and felt crappy for three days. Feel ok today and tested negative but still stay in for seven days?

Heavy chest since infected covid

Hi guys I’m wondering if anyone has same situation like me right now, I had infected covid back 2022 It’s been 2 years I always feel heavy chest, Every morning I wake up there’s always a mucus from my throat, i feel so weak whole body, my vitality also couldn’t fully erected properly. I know it’s all come from my chest. Any ideas what medicine should i take to heal my heavy chest? Or any herbal medicine to clean my chest.

Please guysss give me some advice.

A series from New Scientist released to mark the 5 year anniversary of the virus

We must revisit the covid-19 pandemic to prepare for future outbreaks (archived)

Short Intro: It is tempting to lock memories of the height of covid-19 away but looking back is vital for preparing properly for the next pandemic.

The key events during the covid-19 pandemic (archived)

Note, this has a strong US focus and the international coverage skips Australia altogether. Older ABC post on the first 100 days here, and a SBS post on the first two years.

Five years on, have we learned the lessons of covid-19? (archived)

Science initially struggled to match the pace of the pandemic, leaving people unclear of the best ways to stay safe from the virus, but now we know so much more – which could be essential when the next pandemic hits

• Flattening the curve
• The vaccine gamble
• Covid-19 is airborne
• Would we lock down again?

The big unanswered questions about the covid-19 coronavirus (archived)

Despite studying the SARS-CoV-2 virus for five years, scientists still have questions, from the extent to which it can survive and mutate in animals to the thorny argument over its origins

• Is the virus lurking within wildlife?
• How many people have persistent infections?
• Where did the virus come from?
• Could we go back to square one?

Covid-19 led to a new era of vaccines that could transform medicine (archived)

mRNA vaccines have been a long time coming, but were only approved after covid-19 emerged, marking the beginning of a new way of preventing – and treating – various conditions

How the covid-19 pandemic distorted our experience of time (archived)

Many of us experienced time differently in the pandemic. Learning why can help us.

Everything we know about long covid - including how to reduce the risk (archived)

Some people have been living with long covid for five years, but we are still just starting to learn about its exact causes and how best to treat the condition

Will there be another pandemic after covid-19 and are we prepared? (archived)

Covid-19 is responsible for the deaths of millions of people around the world, but researchers fear the next global outbreak could be even worse, making it vital that we start preparing for that unknown pathogen now

Look after your physical and mental health

A great way to incorporate exercise into your daily routine is by running! Running can be a fun & flexible way to exercise. When exercising make sure to follow any restrictions in your state or territory & remember to stay #COVIDSafe

https://preview.redd.it/6f4re4gzqa3c1.png?width=2400&format=png&auto=webp&s=ac24a48640b12fbd04ccaa51018370007c69faf9

Official Links

The state and territory surveillance reports may be released weekly, fortnightly or monthly.

Cumulative COVID-19 case notifications from across the country are updated daily on the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS) data visualisation tool. The National Dashboard contains information about COVID-19 vaccinations and treatments, aged care outbreaks, hospitalisations and deaths and are updated monthly.

Keen for recommendations on what is the best nasal sprays for COVID to use /purchase from Oz ? Thanks! 🤩

i have a family dinner to attend tommorrow (didnt want to go) and my mom is showing symptoms possibly from work earlier today and going out yesterday, she stubbornly has accepted to test and shes negative. how do i explain to her the test is not 100% accurate.

also i dont really trust the rest of my family will be willing to test the day before the party.

ill definetly be masking tomorrow but im not mentally prepared to be bombarded with judgement from relatives.

*update i ended up not going to the part yay as i had heavy period cramps.

Does anyone know of any at home Covid tests with PCR level accuracy available for Australia?

I’ve seen Pluslife mentioned in American forums, but cant seem to see anything available to us. RATS seem horribly unreliable and GPs apparently are not bothering to even swab people anymore (have heard this from a few sick people who go into the GP only to be told there’s no point testing which seems a little wild to me)

Thanks for any advice :)